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Recovery of anadromous salmonid populations is complicated by their complex life histories. We examined the spatiotemporal interplay of stream temperature, geomorphic features, and a species’ thermal sensitivity mediated by biological interactions in a case study of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California’s Eel River watershed. We estimated habitat suitability and fish capacity for each salmonid run and freshwater life stage during average, cool, and warm years in each of the watershed’s subbasins, including a historically occupied high-elevation subbasin upstream of an impassable dam. Our estimates varied depending on whether we accounted for exposure to the Sacramento pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus grandis), an introduced predator and competitor. Our results indicate that the dammed subbasin has substantial salmonid capacity relative to the rest of the watershed and could provide an important cool-water refuge during warm years and from pikeminnow, potentially improving the productivity and resilience of multiple anadromous salmonid populations. Our approach can be applied in any setting where spatially explicit habitat metrics can be estimated and population-specific and life-stage-specific habitat criteria can be specified.

We investigate environmental drivers of pre-season abundance of US West Coast legal-sized male Dungeness crab (Cancer magister), with the goal of developing an environmental index that can be used to forecast crab abundance in advance of the fishery. A conceptual life history approach is used to generate life-stage-specific and spatio-temporally-specific mechanistic hypotheses regarding oceanographic variables that influence survival at each life stage. Linear models are fit using the logarithms of pre-season abundance estimates of the coastal population of legal-sized male Dungeness crab as the dependent variable and environmental drivers from outputs developed using a regional oceanographic model for the California Current System as the independent environmental variables. Using different model selection methods, we show that the so-called ‘best’ models differ substantially among model selection approaches, illustrating the need to carefully choose performance metrics for model selection. Since our goal was to forecast crab abundance, we selected the ‘best’ model using a cross-validation metric that accounts for the time-series nature of the data. The resulting ‘best’ models suggest that the mechanisms that drive preseason abundance differ among regions widely recognized for spatially and seasonally varying dominant physical processes. We found that the processes determining pre-season abundance of legal-sized male Dungeness crab could be identified with sufficient precision to enable a predictive skill, suggesting that the predictions may be useful for management purposes. Moreover, we found that transport (within and between regions), as well as temperature were likely drivers of pre-season abundance, highlighting that future studies should focus on multiple processes.

People seek reliable natural resources despite climate change. Diverse habitats and biologies stabilize productivity against disturbances like climate, prompting arguments to promote climate-resilient resources by prioritizing complex, less-modified ecosystems. These arguments hinge on the hypothesis that simplifying and degrading ecosystems will reduce resources' climate resilience, a process liable to be cryptically evolving across landscapes and human generations, but rarely documented. Here, we examined the industrial era (post 1848) of California's Central Valley, chronicling the decline of a diversified, functional portfolio of salmon habitats and life histories and investigating for empirical evidence of lost climate resilience in its fishery. Present perspectives indicate that California's dynamic, warming climate overlaid onto its truncated, degraded habitat mosaic severely constrains its salmon fishery. We indeed found substantial climate constraints on today's fishery, but this reflected a shifted ecological baseline. During the early stages of a stressor legacy that transformed the landscape and -- often consequently -- compressed salmon life history expression, the fishery diffused impacts of dry years across a greater number of fishing years and depended less on cool spring-summer transitions. The latter are important given today's salmon habitats, salmon life histories, and resource management practices, but are vanishing with climate change while year-to-year variation in fishery performance is rising. These findings give empirical weight to the idea that human legacies influence ecosystems' climate resilience across landscapes and boundaries (e.g., land/sea). They also raise the question of whether some contemporary climate effects are recent and attributable not only to increasing climate stress, but to past and present human actions that erode resilience. In general, it is thus worth considering that management approaches that prioritize complex, less-modified ecosystems may stabilize productivity despite increasing climate stress and such protective actions may be required for some ecological services to persist into uncertain climate futures.

Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because habitat throughout their entire migration cycle must be suitable for the species to persist. For migratory species in rivers, predicting climate change impacts is especially difficult because there is a lack of spatially continuous and seasonally varying stream temperature data, habitat conditions can vary for an individual throughout its life cycle, and vulnerability can vary by life stage and season. To predict thermal impacts on migratory riverine populations, we first expanded a spatial stream network model to predict mean monthly temperature for 465,775 river km in the western U.S., and then applied simple yet plausible future stream temperature change scenarios. We then joined stream temperature predictions to 44,396 spatial observations and life-stage-specific phenology (timing) for 26 ecotypes (i.e., geographically distinct population groups expressing one of the four distinct seasonal migration patterns) of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a phenotypically diverse anadromous salmonid that is ecologically and economically important but declining throughout its range. Thermal stress, assessed for each life stage and ecotype based on federal criteria, was influenced by migration timing rather than latitude, elevation, or migration distance such that sympatric ecotypes often showed differential thermal exposure. Early-migration phenotypes were especially vulnerable due to prolonged residency in inland streams during the summer. We evaluated the thermal suitability of 31,699 stream km which are currently blocked by dams to explore reintroduction above dams as an option to mitigate the negative effects of our warmer stream temperature scenarios. Our results showed that negative impacts of stream temperature warming can be offset for almost all ecotypes if formerly occupied habitat above dams is made available. Our approach of combining spatial distribution and phenology data with spatially explicit and temporally explicit temperature predictions enables researchers to examine thermal exposure of migrating populations that use seasonally varying habitats.

Glaciers have shaped past and present habitats for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in North America. During the last glacial maximum, approximately 45% of the current North American range of Pacific salmon was covered in ice. Currently, most salmon habitat occurs in watersheds in which glacier ice is present and retreating. This synthesis examines the multiple ways that glacier retreat can influence aquatic ecosystems through the lens of Pacific salmon life cycles. We predict that the coming decades will result in areas in which salmon populations will be challenged by diminished water flows and elevated water temperatures, areas in which salmon productivity will be enhanced as downstream habitat suitability increases, and areas in which new river and lake habitat will be formed that can be colonized by anadromous salmon. Effective conservation and management of salmon habitat and populations should consider the impacts of glacier retreat and other sources of ecosystem change.

Climate change and increased variability and intensity of climate events, in combination with recovering protected species populations and highly capitalized fisheries, are posing new challenges for fisheries management. We examine socio-ecological features of the unprecedented 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave to understand the potential causes for record numbers of whale entanglements in the central California Current crab fishery. We observed habitat compression of coastal upwelling, changes in availability of forage species (krill and anchovy), and shoreward distribution shift of foraging whales. We propose that these ecosystem changes, combined with recovering whale populations, contributed to the exacerbation of entanglements throughout the marine heatwave. In 2016, domoic acid contamination prompted an unprecedented delay in the opening of California’s Dungeness crab fishery that inadvertently intensified the spatial overlap between whales and crab fishery gear. We present a retroactive assessment of entanglements to demonstrate that cooperation of fishers, resource managers, and scientists could mitigate future entanglement risk by developing climate-ready fisheries approaches, while supporting thriving fishing communities., Climate-driven extreme events may have strong local impacts on marine organisms and fisheries. Here the authors report increased whale entanglements in the northeast Pacific following a marine heatwave, and propose compression of coastal upwelling habitat as the potential driver.

We quantified the sum of daily mean temperature above 0 °C and modeled incubation duration using water temperature data collected at 12 coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) spawning sites during two incubation periods with cool, snow-dominant conditions and three incubation periods with anomalously warm, rain-transitional conditions, a proxy for a future climate scenario. Warmer water temperatures during warm–rain-transitional winters yielded a 58-day reduction in the median duration of egg incubation; however, the magnitude of change at individual sites varied widely and was controlled by water source. At groundwater-fed sites, temperature variations were strongly attenuated, leading to small interannual differences in incubation duration that were relatively insensitive to short-term changes in air temperature. In contrast, modeled incubation duration was shortened by up to 3 months during warm–rain-transitional winters at precipitation-fed sites. Remarkably, our modeling showed increased uniformity in incubation duration across the landscape during warm–rain-transitional winters. The potential loss of diversity in incubation duration during warmer winters, in isolation, may reduce portfolio effects in this region’s coho salmon population by promoting greater synchronization in the time of spawning.

The tropical El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Nino or La Nina event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific – a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first order auto-regressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Nina than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Nino; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

International audience; Changes to our climate and oceans are already affecting living marine resources (LMRs) and the people, businesses, and economies that depend on them. As a result, the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has developed a Climate Science Strategy (CSS) to increase the production and use of the climate-related information necessary to fulfill its LMR stewardship mission for fisheries management and protected species conservation. The CSS establishes seven objectives: (1) determine appropriate, climate-informed reference points; (2) identify robust strategies for managing LMRs under changing climate conditions; (3) design decision processes that are robust to climate-change scenarios; (4) predict future states of ecosystems, LMRs, and LMR-dependent human communities; (5) determine the mechanisms of climate-change related effects on ecosystems, LMRs, and LMR-dependent human communities; (6) track trends in ecosystems, LMRs, and LMR-dependent human communities and provide early warning of change; and (7) build and maintain the science infrastructure required to fulfill NMFS mandates under changing climate conditions. These objectives provide a nationally consistent approach to addressing climate-LMR science needs that supports informed decision-making and effective implementation of the NMFS legislative mandates in each region. Near term actions that will address all objectives include: (1) conducting climate vulnerability analyses in each region for all LMRs; (2) establishing and strengthening ecosystem indicators and status reports in all regions; and (3) developing a capacity to conduct management strategy evaluations of climate-related impacts on management targets, priorities, and goals. Implementation of the Strategy over the next few years and beyond is critical for effective fulfillment of the NMFS mission and mandates in a changing climate.

Between the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 during the strong North American drought, the northeast Pacific experienced the largest marine heatwave ever recorded. Here we combine observations with an ensemble of climate model simulations to show that teleconnections between the North Pacific and the weak 2014/2015 El Nino linked the atmospheric forcing patterns of this event. These teleconnection dynamics from the extratropics to the tropics during winter 2013/14, and then back to the extratropics during winter 2014/15, are a key source of multi-year persistence of the North Pacific atmosphere. The corresponding ocean anomalies map onto known patterns of North Pacific decadal variability, specifically the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) in 2014 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 2015. A large ensemble of climate model simulations predicts that the winter variance of the NPGO- and PDO-like patterns increases under greenhouse forcing, consistent with other studies suggesting an increase in the atmospheric extremes that lead to drought over North America. In 2014–2015 the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced a strong marine heatwave. This study shows teleconnections to the tropical Pacific and the weak El Nino were key sources in the atmospheric forcing and persistence of the event.

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.

Chapter 25 of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) is an assessment of climate change and variability, climate-related risks, impacts and adaptation in the U.S. Southwest. The chapter buil...

Author(s): Herbold, Bruce; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Henery, Rene; Johnson, Rachel C.; Mantua, Nate; McClure, Michelle; Moyle, Peter B.; Sommer, Ted | Abstract: California’s salmonids are at the southern limits of their individual species’ ranges, and display a wide diversity of strategies to survive in California’s highly variable climate. Land use changes after statehood in 1850 eliminated important habitats, or blocked access to them, and reduced the abundance, productivity, and distribution of California’s salmon. Habitat simplification, fishing, hatchery impacts, and other stressors led to the loss of genetic and phenotypic (life history, morphological, behavioral, and physiological) diversity in salmonids. Limited diversity and habitat loss left California salmon with reduced capacity to cope with a variable and changing climate. Since 1976, California has experienced frequent droughts, as were common in the paleo-climatological record, but rare in the peak dam-building era of 1936–1976. Increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpacks have produced harsher conditions for California’s salmon in their current habitats than they experienced historically. The most likely way to promote salmon productivity and persistence in California is to restore habitat diversity, reconnect migratory corridors to spawning and rearing habitats, and refocus management to replenish the genetic and phenotypic diversity of these southernmost populations.

Strongly positive temperature anomalies developed in the NE Pacific Ocean during the boreal winter of 2013–2014. Based on a mixed layer temperature budget, these anomalies were caused by lower than normal rates of the loss of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and of relatively weak cold advection in the upper ocean. Both of these mechanisms can be attributed to an unusually strong and persistent weather pattern featuring much higher than normal sea level pressure over the waters of interest. This anomaly was the greatest observed in this region since at least the 1980s. The region of warm sea surface temperature anomalies subsequently expanded and reached coastal waters in spring and summer 2014. Impacts on fisheries and regional weather are discussed. It is found that sea surface temperature anomalies in this region affect air temperatures downwind in Washington state.

Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.

We investigated the hypothesis that synchronous recruitment is due to a shared susceptibility to environmental processes using stock–recruitment residuals for 52 marine fish stocks within three Northeast Pacific large marine ecosystems: the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, Gulf of Alaska, and California Current. There was moderate coherence in exceptionally strong and weak year-classes and correlations across stocks. Based on evidence of synchrony from these analyses, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to relate recruitment to environmental covariates for groups of stocks that may be similarly influenced by environmental processes based on their life histories. There were consistent relationships among stocks to the covariates, especially within the Gulf of Alaska and California Current. The best Gulf of Alaska model included Northeast Pacific sea surface height as a predictor of recruitment, and was particularly strong for stocks dependent on cross-shelf transport during the larval phase for recruitment. In the California Current the best-fit model included San Francisco coastal sea level height as a predictor, with higher recruitment for many stocks corresponding to anomalously high sea level the year before spawning and low sea level the year of spawning. The best Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands model included several environmental variables as covariates and there was some consistent response across stocks to these variables. Future research may be able to utilize these across-stock environmental influences, in conjunction with an understanding of ecological processes important across early life history stages, to improve identification of environmental drivers of recruitment.

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Seleccion y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climatico para Estudios de Impacto Ecologico y Decisiones de Conservacion.

Summary Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and other Pacific salmon are threatened by unsustainable levels of harvest, genetic introgression from hatchery stocks and degradation or loss of freshwater habitat. Projected climate change is expected to further stress salmon through increases in stream temperatures and altered stream flows. We demonstrate a spatially explicit method for assessing salmon vulnerability to projected climatic changes (scenario for the years 2030–2059), applied here to steelhead salmon across the entire Pacific Northwest (PNW). We considered steelhead exposure to increased temperatures and more extreme high and low flows during four of their primary freshwater life stages: adult migration, spawning, incubation and rearing. Steelhead sensitivity to climate change was estimated on the basis of their regulatory status and the condition of their habitat. We assessed combinations of exposure and sensitivity to suggest actions that may be most effective for reducing steelhead vulnerability to climate change. Our relative ranking of locations suggested that steelhead exposure to increases in temperature will be most widespread in the southern Pacific Northwest, whereas exposure to substantial flow changes will be most widespread in the interior and northern Pacific Northwest. There were few locations where we projected that steelhead had both relatively low exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Synthesis and applications. There are few areas where habitat protection alone is likely to be sufficient to conserve steelhead under the scenario of climate change considered here. Instead, our results suggest the need for coordinated, landscape-scale actions that both increase salmon resilience and ameliorate climate change impacts, such as restoring connectivity of floodplains and high-elevation habitats.

Canada has made numerous national and international commitments to sustain marine biodiversity. Given current and potential threats to biodiversity from climate change, fisheries, and aquaculture, we provide a summary review of Canada’s progress in fulfilling its obligations to protect, conserve, recover, and responsibly exploit marine biodiversity. We conclude that Canada has made little substantive progress, when compared to most developed nations, in meeting its biodiversity commitments. Much of Canada’s policy and rhetoric has not been operationalised, leaving many of the country’s national and international obligations unfulfilled in some key areas, such as the establishment of marine protected areas and incorporation of the precautionary approach to fisheries management. We conclude that regulatory conflict within Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and the absolute discretion exercised by the national Minister of Fisheries and Oceans contribute significantly to an unduly slow rate of policy and statute implementation. We recommend new approaches and measures to sustain Canadian marine biodiversity and new research initiatives to support scientific advice to decision-makers. Many recommendations focus on management actions required to meet existing commitments to biodiversity conservation. Overall, we conclude that the most effective strategy is to protect existing biological diversity and to rebuild depleted populations and species to restore natural diversity. By improving and protecting the biodiversity in Canada’s oceans, such a strategy will restore the natural resilience of Canada’s ocean ecosystems to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change and other anthropogenic activities with consequent long-term benefits for food security and social and economic well-being.

Pacific Northwest Chinook, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, have exhibited a high degree of variability in smolt-to-adult survival over the past three decades. This variability is summarized for 22 Pacific Northwest stocks and analyzed using generalized linear modeling techniques. Results indicate that survival can be grouped into eight distinct regional clusters: (1) Alaska, Northern BC and North Georgia Strait; (2) Georgia Strait; (3) Lower Fraser River and West Coast Vancouver Island; (4) Puget Sound and Hood Canal; (5) Lower Columbia Tules; (6) Columbia Upriver Brights, Willamette and Cowlitz; (7) Oregon and Washington Coastal; and (8) Klamath River and Columbia River Summers. Further analysis for stocks within each of the eight regions indicates that local ocean conditions following the outmigration of smolts from freshwater to marine areas had a significant effect on survival for the majority of the stock groups analyzed. Our analyses of the data indicate that Pacific Northwest Chinook survival covaries on a spatial scale of 350–450 km. Lagged time series models are presented that link large-scale tropical Pacific conditions, intermediate-basin scale northeastern Pacific conditions, and local sea surface temperatures to survival of Pacific Northwest stocks.

An important question for salmon restoration efforts in the western USA is ‘How should habitat restoration plans be altered to accommodate climate change effects on stream flow and temperature?’ We developed a decision support process for adapting salmon recovery plans that incorporates (1) local habitat factors limiting salmon recovery, (2) scenarios of climate change effects on stream flow and temperature, (3) the ability of restoration actions to ameliorate climate change effects, and (4) the ability of restoration actions to increase habitat diversity and salmon population resilience. To facilitate the use of this decision support framework, we mapped scenarios of future stream flow and temperature in the Pacific Northwest region and reviewed literature on habitat restoration actions to determine whether they ameliorate a climate change effect or increase life history diversity and salmon resilience. Under the climate change scenarios considered here, summer low flows decrease by 35–75% west of the Cascade Mountains, maximum monthly flows increase by 10–60% across most of the region, and stream temperatures increase between 2 and 6°C by 2070–2099. On the basis of our literature review, we found that restoring floodplain connectivity, restoring stream flow regimes, and re-aggrading incised channels are most likely to ameliorate stream flow and temperature changes and increase habitat diversity and population resilience. By contrast, most restoration actions focused on in-stream rehabilitation are unlikely to ameliorate climate change effects. Finally, we illustrate how the decision support process can be used to evaluate whether climate change should alter the types or priority of restoration actions in a salmon habitat restoration plan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Energetic responses of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to climate-driven changes in marine conditions are expected to affect the species’ ocean distribution, feeding, growth, and survival. With a unique 18-year data series (1991–2008) for steelhead sampled in the open ocean, we simulated interannual variation in prey consumption and growth efficiency of steelhead using a bioenergetics model to evaluate the temperature-dependent growth response of steelhead to past climate events and to estimate growth potential of steelhead under future climate scenarios. Our results showed that annual ocean growth of steelhead is highly variable depending on prey quality, consumption rates, total consumption, and thermal experience. At optimal growing temperatures, steelhead can compensate for a low-energy diet by increasing consumption rates and consuming more prey, if available. Our findings suggest that steelhead have a narrow temperature window in which to achieve optimal growth, which is strongly influenced b...

The risk of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella in Puget Sound, Washington State, can be assessed by identifying and predicting climate and environmental conditions that are favorable for bloom development and the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in shellfish. When these favorable conditions occur in combination, a harmful algal bloom window of opportunity (HAB-WOO) exists for A. catenella . The original HAB-WOO was identified by Moore et al. (2009) for the time period 1993–2007. In general, it showed that warm air and water temperatures, low streamflow, low winds, and small tidal variability precede PST events. Here, we use the HAB-WOO model to examine (i) changes in the annual HAB-WOO duration over the period from 1967 to 2006, and (ii) the potential effect of future climate change on HAB risk through the late 21st century. The annual HAB-WOO duration increased between 1978 and 2006, as did the frequency and geographic extent of PST events. Two step-like changes occurred in 1978 and 1992 with higher annual values attained by the HAB-WOO compared to previous years. The 1978 step change may be related to the 1977 reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from cool to warm phase. Climate change projections from global climate models and regionally downscaled climate models for the Pacific Northwest are used to evaluate scenarios for the future HAB-WOO. Under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario (i.e., A1B), the annual HAB-WOO for A. catenella in Puget Sound is projected to increase by an average of 13 days by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the annual HAB-WOO may begin up to 2 months earlier in the year and persist for up to 1 month later in the year compared to the present day. This research provides managers, health authorities, and shellfish growers in Washington State with critical information for anticipating climate impacts on toxic HABs in the Pacific Northwest now and in a future warmer climate.

Climate strongly influences the population dynamics of many species, but intrinsic and extrinsic factors such as density-dependence and anthropogenic impacts can confound the effects of climate. Further, the temporal scale of climate response is determined by the unique characteristics of a species’ life history, and determining the most appropriate climate indicator at the proper scale is a challenge faced by population ecologists. We focused on how climate influences juvenile survival of bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis), a threatened Pacific rockfish, because its abundance has declined >90% in the last 25 years, ostensibly as the result of overfishing. Bocaccio recruitment is episodic, with strong recruitment events apparently related to climate conditions. We developed a sequence of models that related log of juvenile survival to the predictor variables population density and climate, as measured by the Northern Oscillation Index. A model that contained only population density as a predictor variable explained only 1.4% of the variance, while a model that included only climate indices explained 52%. Including density additively with climate did not improve model fit. However, a model that included an interaction between density and climate explained more than 68% of the variance. In addition, models that represented climate as monthly indices fit the juvenile survival data much better than those that averaged climate over 2- or 3-month periods. Our results suggest that climate affects bocaccio recruitment as a series of pulses corresponding to particular life-history events, with population density mediating the magnitude of the climate effect during the settlement stage.

Historical records of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in shellfish from a coastal embayment in the Pacific Northwest of the United States are used to examine the influence of large-scale climate variations on aspects of Alexandrium catenella bloom dynamics on interannual and interdecadal timescales. An annual index of shellfish toxicity covaries with the number of days annually that sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds 13°C—a known temperature threshold for increased shellfish toxicity in this region—and with an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast, no robust relationship exists between our shellfish toxicity index and an index of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We hypothesize that this is because anomalously warm water temperatures created during El Nino winters do not generally persist into the seasonal time period that shellfish in this region accumulate PSTs, which is typically in the summer and fall. In contrast, anomalously warm water temperatures created during warm-phase PDO winters and springs typically persist into the summer and fall, thereby increasing the number of days annually that SST exceeds 13°C, and increasing the window of opportunity for Alexandrium blooms that ultimately lead to shellfish acquiring higher concentrations of PSTs.

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.

This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habitat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe summer low flow periods and more frequent days with intense winter flooding. While cool-season stream temperature changes and impacts on salmon are not assessed in this study, it is possible that climate-induced warming in winter and spring will benefit parts of the freshwater life-cycle of some salmon populations enough to increase their reproductive success (or overall fitness). However, the combined effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon populations, with impacts varying for different life history-types and watershed-types. Diminishing streamflows and higher stream temperatures in summer will be stressful for stream-type salmon populations that have freshwater rearing periods in summer. Increased winter flooding in transient runoff watersheds will likely reduce the egg-to-fry survival rates for ocean-type and stream-type salmon.

While the physical and ecological importance of the spring transition in the California Current System (CCS) is well recognized, there is no widely agreed upon metric for tracking the phenomenon. Most metrics reflect oceanographic events of the northern CCS; few pertain to southern regions. Our goal was to compare 2 commonly used methods for identifying spring transition in the CCS that use data on wind-driven upwelling and coastal sea levels to 2 newly developed methods that use data on sea levels as well as satellite-derived sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). More specifically, we assessed whether methods typically used in northern regions of the CCS could be applied to other regions. To demonstrate the biological implications of those methods, we evaluated relationships between timing of spring transition and recruitment of 2 groundfish species, Pacific ocean perch Sebastes alutus and sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. Our results suggest that while dramatic changes in wind-derived upwelling and coastal sea levels consistently indicate spring transition in the northern CCS, this is not the case for central and southern regions. In those regions, spring transition may be better represented by the rate of change in sea levels and/or changes in spatial patterns of SSTs. Only metrics based on wind-driven upwelling and sea levels were related to groundfish recruitment; when transitions in upwelling winds and sea levels were delayed, recruitment tended to be poor. We advise caution when identifying dates of spring transition and applying them to analyses of ecological phenomena; a combination of several methods may be required to reveal the multidimensional physical and biological changes that occur during that transition.

Temporal and spatial trends in paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in Puget Sound shellfish and their relationships with climate are investigated using long-term monitoring data since 1957. Data are selected for trend analyses based on the sensitivity of shellfish species to PSTs and their depuration rates, and the frequency of sample collection at individual sites. These criteria limit the analyses to the shellfish species Mytilus edulis at 20 sites from 1993 to 2007. Blue mussel toxicity is highly variable, but typically exceeds the regulatory limit for human consumption from July to November annually, with most closures occurring early in fall. Using blue mussel data only, we find no robust evidence to suggest that the frequency, magnitude, duration, or geographic scope of PST events in Puget Sound increased between 1993 and 2007. However, there is a significant basin-wide trend for closures to occur earlier in the year. There are no significant correlations between annual indices of mussel toxicity and aspects of the local and large-scale climate. Case studies of daily variations in local environmental factors leading up to exceptionally toxic events identify a combination of conditions that generally precedes most closures from 1993 to 2007. These results suggest that periods of warm air and water temperatures and low streamflow on sub-seasonal timescales may facilitate toxin accumulation in mussels. No relationships were found between water residence times in the surface layer and either streamflow or mussel toxicity. Recommendations are made for future monitoring to improve forecasting of PST risks in Puget Sound, an important region for recreational, commercial, and tribal subsistence shellfish harvesting.

Temporal and spatial patterns of variability in Puget Sound's oceanographic properties are determined using continuous vertical profile data from two long-term monitoring programs; monthly observations at 16 stations from 1993 to 2002, and biannual observations at 40 stations from 1998 to 2003. Climatological monthly means of temperature, salinity, and density reveal strong seasonal patterns. Water temperatures are generally warmest (coolest) in September (February), with stations in shallow finger inlets away from mixing zones displaying the largest temperature ranges. Salinities and densities are strongly influenced by freshwater inflows from major rivers during winter and spring from precipitation and snowmelt, respectively, and variations are greatest in the surface waters and at stations closest to river mouths. Vertical density gradients are primarily determined by salinity variations in the surface layer, with stations closest to river mouths most frequently displaying the largest buoyancy frequencies at depths of approximately 4–6 m. Strong tidal stirring and reflux over sills at the entrance to Puget Sound generally removes vertical stratification. Mean summer and winter values of oceanographic properties reveal patterns of spatial connectivity in Puget Sound's three main basins; Whidbey Basin, Hood Canal, and Main Basin. Surface waters that are warmed in the summer are vertically mixed over the sill at Admiralty Inlet and advected at depth into Whidbey Basin and Hood Canal. Cooler and fresher surface waters cap these warmer waters during winter, producing temperature inversions.

As climate change intensifies, there is increasing interest in developing models that reduce uncertainties in projections of global climate and refine these projections to finer spatial scales. Forecasts of climate impacts on ecosystems are far more challenging and their uncertainties even larger because of a limited understanding of physical controls on biological systems. Management and conservation plans that explicitly account for changing climate are rare and even those generally rely on retrospective analyses rather than future scenarios of climatic conditions and associated responses of specific ecosystems. Using past biophysical relationships as a guide to predicting the impacts of future climate change assumes that the observed relationships will remain constant. However, this assumption involves a long chain of uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gases, and the ecological consequences of climate change. These uncertainties in f...

The influence of climate on Puget Sound oceanographic properties is investigated on seasonal to interannual timescales using continuous profile data at 16 stations from 1993 to 2002 and records of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) from 1951 to 2002. Principal components analyses of profile data identify indices representing 42% ,5 8 %, and 56% of the total variability at depth-station combinations for temperature, salinity, and density, respectively, and 22% for water column stratification. Variability in the leading pattern of Puget Sound water temperature and salinity profiles is well correlated with local surface air temperatures and freshwater inflows to Puget Sound from major river basins, respectively. SST and SSS anomalies are informative proxies for the leading patterns of variations in Puget Sound temperature and salinity profiles. Using this longer time history of observations, we find that SST and SSS anomalies also have significant correlations with Aleutian

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change.

Seabirds have often been proposed as environmental indicators. Beached bird data may provide an additional data source and such data is efficacious because it can reliably be collected by volunteers. In addition to anthropogenic factors, such as oil spills, changes in the ocean-atmosphere can affect carcass beaching rate in 3 non-exclusive ways: (1) direct mortality following storms, (2) mortality via bottom-up food web processes, and (3) increase in carcass delivery due to shifts in sur- face water movement. We used data from 3 volunteer-based beached bird data sets collected within the California Current System (CCS) to (1) examine the level of response to anomalous ocean condi- tions in 2005 and (2) explore the degree to which long-term beaching patterns could be explained by one or more of our proposed mechanisms. In 2005, anomalous die-offs of Cassin's auklet Ptychorham- phus aleuticus and the rhinoceros auklet Cerorhinca monocerata occurred in the winter in Monterey. By spring, anomalous die-offs of Brandt's cormorant Phalacrocorax pencillatus and the common murre Uria aalge occurred throughout the CCS. Over the longer term, increases in beaching were associated with changes in the timing and intensity of upwelling and, secondarily, with zonal winds aloft — a potential proxy of shifts in pelagic community composition. These results suggest that a bottom-up food web mechanism best explains seabird beaching, at least in the spring. Correlations of local measures of storminess to seabird beaching rates were weak to non-existent. Correlations were much stronger at the California site (8 yr) and weaker to non-existent at the Oregon site (26 yr). Collectively, these data suggest that relationships between ocean physics and beached bird response may be site specific and/or may reflect choices live birds make vis-a-vis non-breeding distribution.

Although Pacific salmon never swim within 2,000 km of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, this does not mean they are beyond the reach of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Pacific salmon habitats are subject to robust long-distance climate linkages; tropical ENSO indicators are well correlated with the dominant pattern of North Pacific climate variations, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and with the dominant pattern of North America’s 20th-century salmon landings (1, 2). As such, might a change in the dominant flavor of ENSO variability and its link with North Pacific climate also affect patterns of Pacific salmon population dynamics? Kilduff et al. (3) show that, indeed, a shift in Pacific climate has a strong and previously unidentified signature in West Coast salmon survival rates; they also suggest that this shift increased the synchrony of survival rate variations for dozens of salmon populations across ∼2,000 km of coastline and destabilized the delivery of services these salmon provide to people and ecosystems.

The capacity of geoduck clams ( Panopea abrupta ) to preserve detailed records of climatic change in their shells is limited primarily by longevity. Unlike the multi-centennial growth records commonly available from trees, shells rarely yield more than 160 years of data; consequently low-frequency signals may be lost when band width series are processed. Here we investigate use of ‘Regional Curve Standardization’ (RCS) to preserve decadal to centennial-scale growth trends in the relatively short segment lengths available from individual clams. Advantages of this method over the more common ‘exponential’ treatment are first explored through simulation experiments using sine waves embedded in geoduck growth curves. Both standardization methods are then used to remove biological trends from growth records of geoduck shells sampled near Protection Island, in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The resulting chronologies are compared in terms of their spectral properties, their correlations with historical air temperature records and their agreement with historical observations of the marine environment. Simulation experiments illustrated the potential benefits of using the RCS growth model to standardize shell growth series, but empirical results were inconclusive. The RCS chronology exhibited enhanced spectral power at periods exceeding the length of growth segments, and provided stronger correlation with coastal air-temperature records, especially during the earliest portion of the chronology. Over the full period of comparison, however, the correlation coefficients were essentially identical. Observational data from the mid to late 1800s appears to support the RCS results. Northward range expansions of several marine fish species coincide with a period of conspicuously high values in the RCS chronology, and suggest that the coastal ocean was unusually warm along western North America from the 1850s through the 1870s.

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in forests of the American Northwest. Historical fire suppression efforts have contributed to an accumulation of fuels in many Northwestern forests and may result in more frequent and/or more severe wildfire events. Here we investigate the extent to which atmospheric and climatic variability may contribute to variability in annual area burned on 20 National Forests in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to identify coherent patterns in area burned by wildfire in the Pacific Northwest. Anomaly fields of 500-hPa height were regressed onto the resulting principal-component time series to identify the patterns in atmospheric circulation that are associated with variability in area burned by wildfire. Additionally, cross-correlation functions were calculated for the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) over the year preceding the wildfire season. Parallel analyses based on superposed epoch analysis focused only on the extreme fire years (both large and small) to discriminate the controls on extreme years from the linear responses identified in the regression analyses. Four distinct patterns in area burned were identified, each associated with distinct climatic processes. Extreme wildfire years are forced at least in part by an- tecedent drought and summertime blocking in the 500-hPa height field. However the re- sponse to these forcings is modulated by the ecology of the dominant forest. In more mesic forest types antecedent drought is a necessary precondition for forests to burn, but it is not a good predictor of area burned due to the rarity of subsequent ignition. At especially dry locations, summertime blocking events can lead to increases in area burned even in the absence of antecedent drought. At particularly xeric locations summertime cyclones can also lead to increased area burned, probably due to dry lightning storms that bring ignition and strong winds but little precipitation. These results suggest that fuels treatments alone may not be effective at reducing area burned under extreme climatic conditions and fur- thermore that anthropogenic climate change may have important implications for forest

A network of 32 drought sensitive tree-ring chronologies is used to reconstruct mean water year flow on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon, since 1750. The reconstruction explains 30 percent of the variability in mean water year (October to September) flow, with a large portion of unexplained variance caused by underestimates of the most severe low flow events. Residual statistics from the tree-ring reconstruction, as well as an identically specified instrumental reconstruction, exhibit positive trends over time. This finding suggests that the relationship between drought and streamflow has changed over time, supporting results from hydrologic models, which suggest that changes in land cover over the 20th Century have had measurable impacts on runoff production. Low pass filtering the flow record suggests that persistent low flows during the 1840s were probably the most severe of the past 250 years, but that flows during the 1930s were nearly as extreme. The period from 1950 to 1987 is anomalous in the context of this record for having no notable multiyear drought events. A comparison of the flow reconstruction to paleorecords of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nifio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) support a strong 20th Century link between large scale circulation and streamflow, but suggests that this link is very weak prior to 1900.

Climate variability is well known to affect the marine survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Oregon and Washington. Marine factors have been used to explain up to 83% of the variability in Oregon coastal natural coho salmon recruitment, yet about half the variability in coho salmon recruitment comes from the freshwater life phase of the life cycle. This seeming paradox could be resolved if freshwater variability were linked to climate and climate factors influencing marine survival were correlated with those affecting freshwater survival. Effects of climate on broad-scale fluctuations in freshwater survival or production are not well known. We examined the influence of seasonal stream flows and air temperature on freshwater survival and production of two stock units: Oregon coastal natural coho salmon and Queets River coho salmon from the Washington Coast. Annual air temperatures and second winter flows correlated strongly with smolt production from both stock units. Additional correlates for the Oregon Coast stocks were the date of first fall freshets and flow during smolt outmigration. Air temperature is correlated with sea surface temperature and timing of the spring transition so that good freshwater conditions are typically associated with good marine conditions.

We review observational data sets that have been used to detect regime shifts in the ocean. Through exploration of data time series we develop a definition of a regime shift from a pragmatic perspective, in which a shift is considered as an abrupt change from a quantifiable ecosystem state. We conclude that such changes represent a restructuring of the ecosystem state in some substantial sense that persists for long enough that a new quasi-equilibrium state can be observed. The abruptness of the shift is relative to the life-scale or the reproductive time-scale of the higher predators that are influenced by the shift. In general, the event-forcing is external to the biological ecosystem, usually the physical climate system, but we also identify shifts that can be ascribed to anthropogenic forcing, in our examples fishing. This pragmatic definition allows for several different types of regime shift ranging from simple biogeographic shifts to nonlinear state changes. In practice it is quite difficult to determine whether observed changes in an oceanic ecosystem are primarily spatial or temporally regulated. The determination of ecosystem state remains an unresolved, and imprecise, oceanographic problem. We review observations and interpretation from several different oceanic regions as examples to illustrate this pragmatic definition of a regime shift: the Northeast Pacific, the Northwest and Northeast Atlantic, and Eastern Boundary Currents. For each region, different types of data (biological and physical) are available for differing periods of time, and we conclude, with varying degrees of certainty, whether a regime shift is in fact detectable in the data.