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Healthy marine ecosystems provide critical benefits to people worldwide, but increasing threats from climate change and human activities disrupt ecosystem functionality and put these benefits at risk. Local and regional assessments have shown these impacts can be substantial, but we lack a global assessment of risk to marine biodiversity. Here we assessed risk of impact by intersecting spatial distributions of 21,267 marine animal species with distributions of 13 anthropogenic stressors according to each species’ vulnerability, examining results through multiple lenses that connect to different conservation objectives: species, taxon, and functional vulnerability. Using this species-focused approach, we found that vulnerable functional entities in coastal ecosystems across all marine ecological provinces are at greater risk of impact than indicated by assessments of broader ecosystem-level impact risk based on vulnerability of representative habitats, driven largely by climate stressors. Where multiple lenses of impact assessment indicate elevated risk, broad area-based protections may be warranted, but where impacts are focused on vulnerable functional entities there may be opportunities for more narrowly targeted conservation strategies such as local habitat restoration, assisted migration, or fishing gear restrictions. These results provide key insights at local to global scales on where and how to best meet conservation of species diversity and ecosystem function.

Species traits have much to offer conservation science. However, the selection and application of trait data in conservation requires rigor to avoid perverse or unexpected outcomes. To guide trait use, we review how traits are applied along the conservation continuum: the progression of conservation actions from assessing risk, to designing and prioritizing actions, to implementation and evaluation. We then provide a framework for their use as proxies for more nuanced empirical data on species and ecosystems. Framework steps include (1) identifying information needs relative to conservation goals, (2) choosing relevant traits using theory and expanding via expert elicitation, and (3) defining and addressing the limits of trait information. Worked examples for contemporary plant and amphibian conservation show how traits should be selected and applied based on theory and/or evidence (rather than data availability or untested assumptions). Finally, we forecast the use of trait data in several conservation applications globally.

There is evidence from the development and humanitarian sectors that purposeful engagement of women can increase the impact of development. We conducted a literature review to examine whether this is also evident in conservation and natural resource management. The following themes emerged from our review: existing societal and cultural norms affect and generally limit how women can engage in conservation and natural resource management; women interact differently with the environment than men, so if they are excluded, their knowledge and perspectives on particular resources may not be considered in conservation actions; and there is often a lack of resources or dedicated effort by conservation or natural resource management programmes to understand and address the barriers that prevent women's engagement. Although there was evidence of a positive relationship between the engagement of women and environmental outcomes, some studies showed that positive conservation outcomes do not necessarily benefit women, and when women are not considered, conservation activities can perpetuate existing inequities. We conclude that although the importance of integrating gender into conservation is acknowledged in the literature, there is a need to examine how women can be meaningfully engaged in conservation. This must go beyond treating women as a homogenous group, to consider intersectionality including race, ethnicity, age, religion, poverty and disability. In addition, conservation and natural resource management institutions need to address the inclusion of women in their own staff and programmes.

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.Importancia de las Reubicaciones de Especies bajo el Cambio Climático Acelerado Resumen Las especies que no pueden adaptarse o mantener el ritmo del cambio climático probablemente requieran de la intervención humana para mudarse a climas más adecuados. Mientras que cientos de artículos mencionan el uso de las reubicaciones como una herramienta de adaptación al cambio climático, en la práctica, la migración asistida todavía es rara como una acción de conservación, especialmente para animales. Lo anterior probablemente se debe a la preocupación que existe por la introducción de especies a sitios en los que podrían volverse invasoras. Sin embargo, existen otras barreras que deberían considerarse, como aquellas ocasionadas por el desfase en el marco temporal, cuestiones sociopolíticas, de conocimiento o de incertidumbre para los conservacionistas que adoptan a la migración asistida como la estrategia de cajón. Recomendamos lo siguiente para que la migración asistida avance como herramienta de conservación: intentar realizar migraciones asistidas a pequeñas escalas, reubicar especies con poco riesgo de invasión, adoptar protocolos de monitoreo robustos que generen una respuesta activa y promover el apoyo público y político.不能适应或跟上气候变化的物种可能需要人类干预以迁移到气候更适宜的地区。虽然已有数百篇文献提到利用辅助迁移作为物种适应气候变化的工具, 但在实践中, 这样的保护行动仍然很少, 特别是对动物来说。这可能是因为人们担心将物种引入新环境可能导致物种的入侵扩散。然而, 保护主义者采用辅助迁移作为首选策略还面临着其它阻碍, 如时限不匹配, 社会政治因素, 知识不足以及不确定性等。为了推动辅助迁移在保护中的应用, 我们建议先尝试小尺度的辅助迁移, 对入侵风险低的物种进行迁移, 采用能引发有效反应的稳健监测方案, 以及加大政治及公众的支持。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Rapid coastal development continues to jeopardize the integrity of marine socio-ecological systems. China is now the largest bilateral creditor in the world, committing nearly half a trillion US dollars to overseas development finance since 2008. Meanwhile, there are growing concerns over the impacts of this boom in Chinese development finance on marine systems. Here, we quantify the risks of coastal development projects financed by China to marine biodiversity and coastal Indigenous communities. Ports present the greatest impact risks to marine systems, in terms of both magnitude and area at risk, with power plants, roads, and other facilities presenting relatively high localized risks. Risks are most prominent in Africa and the Caribbean, with coastal Indigenous communities in Western and Central Africa particularly vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of development. All projects present some risk to threatened marine species and potential critical habitats, but few present high risks to nearby marine protected areas. Most projects present additional risks to ecosystems that are already under increasing human pressures, but some are likely to introduce new risks to relatively intact ecosystems. “Bluing” future coastal development projects in China’s overseas development finance portfolio will require more social and environmental safeguards, higher standards for host-country impact assessments, and greater integration of land-sea risk mitigation and management approaches.

Every year, more people are killed defending the environment than are soldiers from the United Kingdom and Australia on overseas deployments in war zones combined. During the last 15 years, the number of both deaths of environmental defenders, and the countries where they occur, have increased. Recorded deaths have increased from two per week to four per week over this period. These deaths are primarily related to conflict over natural resources, across a range of sectors. Of 683 total deaths, >230 were related to mining and agribusiness between 2014 and 2017. We find that rule of law and corruption indices are closely linked to patterns of killings. Using spatial data, we investigate the drivers of these conflicts and violence and seek to identify who may be most at risk and why. We argue that businesses, investors and national governments at both ends of the chain of violence need to be more accountable.

Symbiotic nitrogen (N)-fixing trees can provide large quantities of new N to ecosystems, but only if they are sufficiently abundant. The overall abundance and latitudinal abundance distributions of N-fixing trees are well characterised in the Americas, but less well outside the Americas. Here, we characterised the abundance of N-fixing trees in a network of forest plots spanning five continents, ~5,000 tree species and ~4 million trees. The majority of the plots (86%) were in America or Asia. In addition, we examined whether the observed pattern of abundance of N-fixing trees was correlated with mean annual temperature and precipitation. Outside the tropics, N-fixing trees were consistently rare in the forest plots we examined. Within the tropics, N-fixing trees were abundant in American but not Asian forest plots (~7% versus ~1% of basal area and stems). This disparity was not explained by mean annual temperature or precipitation. Our finding of low N-fixing tree abundance in the Asian tropics casts some doubt on recent high estimates of N fixation rates in this region, which do not account for disparities in N-fixing tree abundance between the Asian and American tropics. Synthesis. Inputs of nitrogen to forests depend on symbiotic nitrogen fixation, which is constrained by the abundance of N-fixing trees. By analysing a large dataset of ~4 million trees, we found that N-fixing trees were consistently rare in the Asian tropics as well as across higher latitudes in Asia, America and Europe. The rarity of N-fixing trees in the Asian tropics compared with the American tropics might stem from lower intrinsic N limitation in Asian tropical forests, although direct support for any mechanism is lacking. The paucity of N-fixing trees throughout Asian forests suggests that N inputs to the Asian tropics might be lower than previously thought.

Climate change poses significant challenges to the long-term management of threatened species. Pre-emptive assessments of the capacity for threatened species to adapt to climate change are essential for choosing appropriate management actions that minimise extinction risk. Here, we use species traits and range metrics linked to ecological performance to assess the capacity to respond to climate change of 342 plant species, listed as threatened under IUCN-compatible criteria in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). Traits capturing variation in phenology, morphology, physiology and geographic range were used to assess species’ response(s) to four factors likely to influence their climate change response: Reproduction, Movement Capability, Abiotic Niche Specialisation, and risk spreading across Spatial Coverage. Assessment scores were combined into high, medium and low rankings based on two complementary approaches for assessing climate change risk: (i) fully precautionary, where species were classified as high risk if any one of the four response factors was high; and (ii) integrative, combining scores across all four response factors to assign an overall risk ranking. 84% of threatened species assessed had a high risk ranking for at least one response factor, whereas 30, 55 and 15% of species were ranked high, medium or low respectively, based on our integrative measure of risk. Importantly, basic information for at least one trait for an additional 237 threatened plants in NSW was not available, despite thorough searching across 727 resources. This lack of fundamental baseline data for threatened plants may have wide-ranging implications for their management, including an inability to assess their response capacity to threats, and plan accordingly.

Reliable assessment of forest structural types (FSTs) aids sustainable forest management. We developed a methodology for the identification of FSTs using airborne laser scanning (ALS), and demonstrate its generality by applying it to forests from Boreal, Mediterranean and Atlantic biogeographical regions. First, hierarchal clustering analysis (HCA) was applied and clusters (FSTs) were determined in coniferous and deciduous forests using four forest structural variables obtained from forest inventory data – quadratic mean diameter (QMD), Gini coefficient (GC), basal area larger than mean (BALM) and density of stems (N) –. Then, classification and regression tree analysis (CART) were used to extract the empirical threshold values for discriminating those clusters. Based on the classification trees, GC and BALM were the most important variables in the identification of FSTs. Lower, medium and high values of GC and BALM characterize single storey FSTs, multi-layered FSTs and exponentially decreasing size distributions (reversed J), respectively. Within each of these main FST groups, we also identified young/mature and sparse/dense subtypes using QMD and N. Then we used similar structural predictors derived from ALS – maximum height (Max), L-coefficient of variation (Lcv), L-skewness (Lskew), and percentage of penetration (cover), – and a nearest neighbour method to predict the FSTs. We obtained a greater overall accuracy in deciduous forest (0.87) as compared to the coniferous forest (0.72). Our methodology proves the usefulness of ALS data for structural heterogeneity assessment of forests across biogeographical regions. Our simple two-tier approach to FST classification paves the way toward transnational assessments of forest structure across bioregions.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree performance. However, how mycorrhizal associations correlate with the latitudinal tree beta-diversity remains untested. Using a global dataset of 45 forest plots representing 2,804,270 trees across 3840 species, we test how AM and EcM trees contribute to total beta-diversity and its components (turnover and nestedness) of all trees. We find AM rather than EcM trees predominantly contribute to decreasing total beta-diversity and turnover and increasing nestedness with increasing latitude, probably because wide distributions of EcM trees do not generate strong compositional differences among localities. Environmental variables, especially temperature and precipitation, are strongly correlated with beta-diversity patterns for both AM trees and all trees rather than EcM trees. Results support our hypotheses that latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and environmental effects on these patterns are highly dependent on mycorrhizal types. Our findings highlight the importance of AM-dominated forests for conserving global forest biodiversity., The relationship of mycorrhizal associations with latitudinal gradients in tree beta-diversity is unexplored. Using a global dataset approach, this study examines how trees with arbuscular mycorrhizal and ectomycorrhizal associations contribute to latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and the environmental controls of these patterns.

In 2010, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 to address the loss and degradation of nature. Subsequently, most biodiversity indicators continued to decline. Nevertheless, conservation actions can make a positive difference for biodiversity. The emerging Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework has potential to catalyze efforts to ‘bend the curve’ of biodiversity loss. Thus, the inclusion of a goal on species, articulated as Goal B in the Zero Draft of the Post-2020 Framework, is essential. However, as currently formulated, this goal is inadequate for preventing extinctions, and reversing population declines; both of which are required to achieve the CBD’s 2030 mission. We contend it is unacceptable that Goal B could be met while most threatened species deteriorated in status and many avoidable species extinctions occurred. We examine the limitations of the current wording and propose an articulation with robust scientific basis. A goal for species that strives to end extinctions and recover populations of all species that have experienced population declines, and especially those at risk of extinction, would help to align actors towards the transformative actions and interventions needed for humans to live in harmony with nature.

Urgent action is required to ‘bend the curve’ on biodiversity loss. However, the ‘species goal’ (Goal B) unveiled in the recently released Zero Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) is inadequate for mobilizing conservation actions to achieve the outcomes required to halt and reverse species declines. Here we examine the limitations of the goal as presented in the Zero Draft and propose a more ambitious goal for species. The conservation community must ensure that the species goal of the GBF captures what is actually needed from a species perspective for the Post-2020 Framework to achieve its 2030 mission “to put biodiversity on a path to recovery for the benefit of planet and people”, lest the mission be doomed from the start.

Aim: Many conservation efforts now focus on mitigating biodiversity loss due to climate change. While a focus on impacts from mean, long‐term changes in climate is warranted, the vast majority of conservation plans largely ignore another key factor of climate change—changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events. A typology of the full range and severity of ecological responses to extreme events would help underpin tracking of their impacts. Location: Global. Methods: Here, we review 519 observational studies of ecological responses to extreme events between 1941 and 2015. We include responses from amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates, mammals, plants and reptiles to cyclones, drought, flood, cold waves and heat waves. Results: Negative ecological responses were the most commonly reported, accounting for 57% of all documented responses. There were over 100 cases of a >25% population decline and 31 cases of local extirpation. Sixty per cent of the studies in our review observed ecological responses for more than 1 year, and of the studies that monitored species or ecosystem recovery following exposure to an extreme event, 38% showed species or ecosystems did not recover to pre‐disturbance levels. Main conclusions: Extreme weather and climate events have profound implications for species and ecosystem management. We discuss current conceptual challenges associated with incorporating extreme events into conservation planning efforts, which include how to quantify species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, how to account for interactions between extreme events and other stressors, and how to maximize adaptive capacity to more frequent and intense extreme events.

Few assessments of species vulnerability to climate change used to inform conservation management consider the intrinsic traits that shape species’ capacity to respond to climate change. This omission is problematic as it may result in management actions that are not optimised for the long-term persistence of species as climates shift. We present a tool for explicitly linking data on plant species’ life history traits and range characteristics to appropriate management actions that maximise their capacity to respond to climate change. We deliberately target data on easily measured and widely available traits (e.g. dispersal syndrome, height, longevity) and range characteristics (e.g. range size, climatic/soil niche breadth), to allow for rapid comparison across many species. We test this framework on 1237 plants, categorising species on the basis of their potential climate change risk as related to four factors affecting their response capacity: reproduction, movement capability, abiotic niche specialisation and spatial coverage. Based on these four factors, species were allocated risk scores, and these were used to test the hypothesis that the current protection status under national legislation and related management actions capture species response capacity to climate change. Our results indicate that 20% of the plant species analysed (242 species) are likely to have a low capacity to respond to climate change based on the traits assessed, and are therefore at high risk. Of the 242 high risk species, only 10% (24 species) are currently listed for protection under conservation legislation. Importantly, many management plans for these listed species fail to address the capacity of species to respond to climate change with appropriate actions: 70% of approved management plans do not include crucial actions which may improve species’ ability to adapt to climate change. We illustrate how the use of easily attainable traits associated with ecological and evolutionary responses to changing environmental conditions can inform conservation actions for plant species globally.

The well-being of human societies in many parts of the world is threatened by climate change. While climate change is global, impacts are local and regional, and vulnerability varies widely across communities, countries, and regions. Climate change awareness has been related to how willingly communities adapt to climate change; thus, identifying communities’ awareness could help to gain insights into communities’ willingness to adopt climate change policy. In this study, we use culturomics to analyze big data from Google™ search queries to group countries based on their awareness, potential willingness, and potential capacity to deal with climate change. We demonstrate that culturomics can be used to allocate countries along a typology gradient, ranging from high-risk and high awareness to low-risk and low awareness, to climate change. Furthermore, we identify a positive correlation between countries’ climate vulnerability and awareness of climate change. As the Paris Agreement establishes a global goal to “enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change,” identifying countries’ potential adaptive capacity to climate impacts is critical. Pairing culturomics insights with climate vulnerability is a novel approach to facilitate international climate change adaptation.

Effective leaders are critical in determining successful outcomes of conservation programs. As the business and economic leadership literature shows, awareness around cultural differences in leadership attributes is important for positive project outcomes set in inter-cultural contexts. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to understand whether, and how, the influence of cultural context was acknowledged when describing successful leadership attributes of conservation leadership. We found fifteen papers from different geographical regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America) explicitly addressing conservation leadership attributes. We further explored how characteristics of four key attributes (i.e. motivating others, establishing a shared vision, effective communication and partnership building) were addressed within these different cultural settings. Our review shows that the discourse on how culture influences attributes of a conservation leader and its implications for conservation outcomes is very limited. Awareness and sensitivity around this influence is important as cultural differences may either facilitate or hinder conservation project outcomes, particularly when people from different cultural backgrounds work together.

Reducing the rate of species extinctions is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding patterns in the distribution and frequency of both threatened species and the threatening processes affecting them improves our ability to mitigate threats and prioritize management actions. In this quantitative synthesis of processes threatening Australian at-risk fauna, we find that species are impacted by a median of six threats (range 1–19), though there is considerable variation in numbers of threats among major taxonomic groups. Invasive species, habitat loss, biological resource use, natural systems modification and climate change are the processes most commonly affecting Australian threatened species. We identified an uneven distribution of research knowledge among species, with half of the total number of species-specific peer-reviewed scientific publications associated with only 11 threatened species (2.7%). Furthermore, the number of threats associated with each species was correlated with the research effort for that species, and research effort was correlated with body mass. Hence, there appears to be a research bias towards larger-bodied species, and certain charismatic species, that could result in inferences biased towards these favored species. However, after accounting for these effects we found that for birds, amphibians, reptiles and marine mammals body mass is positively correlated with the number of threats associated with each species. Many threats also co-occur, indicating that threat syndromes may be common.

Mammals can serve as an indicator of global climate change impacts on species’ distributions due to the wide range of ecological niches they utilize. Tropical Asia encompasses several biodiversity hotspots, is the largest reservoir of mammalian diversity on earth, and has already experienced the extinction of several mammal species either regionally or locally. Global climate change could become a significant driver of species extinction, either directly or synergistically with other factors, such as habitat loss, agricultural expansion, overexploitation, and land use change. Despite the variability of climatic regimes across tropical Asia, the potential impacts of climate change on continental-scale distributions of mammals have not been examined. To address this issue, we developed habitat suitability models for four threatened large mammals (Ursus thibetanus, Elephas maximus, Hoolock hoolock, and Panthera tigris tigris), across their entire distributions in Asia. We used presence-only distribution records and nine bioclimatic and environmental variables and built species-specific habitat suitability models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). We used a moderate and an extreme climate scenario (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and three time steps: current, 2050, and 2070. Our results suggest that changes in annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, precipitation, and temperature seasonality could reduce suitable habitat for these mammals and therefore increase their extinction risks. However, several patches of stable habitat are projected to persist through the late twenty-first century, and these climate change refugia areas can be managed as an important strategy for conservation of the mammal species and the maintenance of biodiversity in the face of ongoing climate change. In this context, we recommend the following steps for the conservation of global mammal populations: (i) define the spatial extent (local, regional, or continental scale) of the target mammals, (ii) identify and prioritize climate change refugial areas following ecological niche models or other methods based on biological data, and (iii) implement management actions by analyzing current management tools and the strategies required (e.g., habitat restoration or assisted migration for prioritized species) to achieve long-term conservation goals.

There is growing evidence that global climate change is significantly altering forest ecosystems, and will continue to do so in the future. Changes in mean climate and climate extremes such as drought, storms, cyclones and wildfires can fundamentally alter species distribution, composition, phenology, and forest structure. This study reviewed the available evidence of climate change impacts on tropical forests. We selected 85 studies based on two selection criterias and recorded the impacts of climate change on different areas of tropical forests. The majority of the studies examined climate change impacts on forest structure and composition (72%), with few considering phenology (8%). This study focused on tropical Asian forests because of their high biodiversity values and their vulnerability to the interacting threats of forest fragmentation and climate change. The difference map (2080–2100 compared with 1980–2000) indicates a significant acceleration of mean warming (5–9 °C) and increase in mean precipitation (0.5–1 mm day-1) in the Himalayan Highlands, Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of South Asia. Based on this review, two issues were posed to direct future tropical forest research: (1) effect of climate change on the extinction risk of tropical trees and (2) integration of climate change risks into forest policy and management.

With the high rate of ecosystem change, effective systematic conservation planning must account for ongoing and imminent threats to biodiversity to ensure its persistence. Accordingly, guidance on appropriate conservation actions in the face of climate change has been accumulating. We review this guidance and bring together the key recommendations needed to successfully account for climate change impacts, relevant to the scale at which natural resource management is carried out. We discuss how the traditional conservation tools of protection and restoration need to be adjusted to be effective in the face of climate change. We highlight the conservation innovations such as moveable and temporary reserves, and Targeted Gene Flow. We build on recent work to provide critical advice for considering climate change in conservation planning. In particular, we discuss how stating explicit objectives related to climate change adaptation, quantifying uncertainty, and exploring trade-offs will better place conservation plans to meet objectives for multiple goals such as protection of species, ecosystems, geophysical diversity and ecological processes.

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono‐specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change‐driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence‐only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool “MaxEnt” (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.

Species' response to climate change is already occurring and managers require scenario planning with tangible actions for effective conservation. We address this need by examining the impact of projected changes in maximum temperature and sea level rise (SLR), on the future suitability of current nesting sites for two globally endangered turtle species (Eretmochelys imbricata, hawksbill and Caretta caretta, loggerhead turtles). We parameterized the biophysical characteristics of nesting beaches in Western Australia (WA), Northern Territory (NT) and Queensland (Qld) and used climate change projections to assess future suitability. All current nesting beaches are predicted to experience increased maximum temperatures (up to 34.8 °C in NT and 38.9 °C in WA), sex ratios will become increasingly female-skewed, and embryo viability will be threatened at beaches in the north and west of Australia. Beaches in eastern Australia are less likely to flood than those in the west under sea level rise, although all beaches will experience increased flooding, with some sites projected to be below mean high water level by 2100. Many current beaches globally may become unsuitable for nesting under climate change and therefore other existing, or newly established, beaches will be critical for the persistence of turtle populations: thermally suitable climate space in Australia will undergo a southwards shift. This type of analysis can be repeated elsewhere to inform regional long-term conservation planning, such as implementation of protected areas. We demonstrate a valid approach to addressing the issue of conservation for species that use different habitats at different life stages in different parts of the world: by assessing future habitat suitability we highlight important areas for effective conservation planning and management.

Climate change is expected to lead to significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and endemism at a continental scale in Australia, threatening the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypt trees that dominate much of the continent. Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts1,2,3. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species4, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades1 and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity5. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism6 (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

Understanding climate change impacts on species is vital for correctly estimating their extinction risk and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We perceive four common challenges that hamper conservation planning for species affected by climate change: (i) only considering climate exposure in assessments of vulnerability to climate change, ignoring the two other components of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); (ii) treating climate change as a long-term, gradual threat without recognising that it will change the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes; (iii) treating climate change as a future threat, disregarding current impacts of existing change; and, (iv) focusing on direct impacts of climate change, ignoring its interactions with other threats. We describe the implications of these challenges and urge that establishing management objectives in relation to species' vulnerability is crucial for choosing effective and efficient conservation action.

Large-scale mortality events in forests are increasing in frequency and intensity and can lead to both intermediate- and long-term changes in these systems. Specialist pests and pathogens are unique disturbances, as they commonly target individual species that are relatively prevalent in the community. Understanding the consequences of pathogen-caused mortality requires using sometimes limited available data to create statistical models that can forecast future community states. In the last two decades, ash dieback disease has swept through Europe causing widespread mortality of Fraxinus excelsior L. (European ash) across much of its distribution. In the UK, F. excelsior is an abundant and ecologically important species. Using demographic data from an 18 ha plot in Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, we built models that forecast the response of this forest plot to the loss of F. excelsior. We combine integral projection models and individual-based models to link models of growth, survival and fecundity to population dynamics. We demonstrate likely responses in Wytham by comparing projections under different levels of F. excelsior mortality. To extrapolate results to other systems, we test hypotheses regarding the role of abundance, spatial structure and demographic differences between species in determining community response to disease disturbance. We show that the outcome of succession is determined largely by the differing demographic strategies and starting abundances of competing species. Spatial associations between species were shown to have little effect on community dynamics at the spatial scale of this plot. Synthesis. Host-specific pests and pathogens are an increasingly important type of disturbance. We have developed a framework that makes use of forest inventory data to forecast changes in the population dynamics of remaining species and the consequences for community structure. We use our framework to predict how a typical British woodland will respond to ash dieback disease and show how vital rates, spatial structure and abundance impact the community response to the loss of a key species. Host-specific pests and pathogens are an increasingly important type of disturbance. We have developed a framework that makes use of forest inventory data to forecast changes in the population dynamics of remaining species and the consequences for community structure. We use our framework to predict how a typical British woodland will respond to ash dieback disease and show how vital rates, spatial structure and abundance impact the community response to the loss of a key species.

Bias toward legally protecting and prioritizing charismatic taxonomic groups, such as mammals and birds, and against others, such as insects and plants, is well documented. However, the relative costs of conserving various taxonomic groups and the potential of these costs to interact with existing biases have been much less explored. We analyzed conservation programs across more than 2,000 species in 3 countries to investigate the costs of conserving species within taxonomic groups and how these costs might affect conservation planning. For each data set, we tested for differences in mean annual cost among taxonomic groups. For the data set from the United States, recovery plans differed in duration, so we also tested for differences in total costs among taxonomic groups. Although the costs for individual species varied widely, there were strong international consistencies. For example, mammals cost 8-26 times more on average to conserve than plants and 13-19 times more to conserve than aquatic invertebrates. On average, bird species cost 5-30 times more to conserve than plants and 6-14 times more to conserve than aquatic invertebrates. These cost differences could exacerbate unequal resource allocation among taxonomic groups such that more charismatic groups both receive more attention and require more resources, leading to neglect of other taxonomic groups.Costos Relativos de la Conservación de Especies Amenazadas entre Grupos Taxonómicos Resumen El sesgo hacia la protección legal y la priorización de grupos taxonómicos carismáticos, como los mamíferos y las aves, y el sesgo que no favorece a otros grupos, como los insectos y las plantas, está bien documentado. A pesar de esto, los costos relativos de la conservación de varios grupos taxonómicos y el potencial que tienen estos costos para interactuar con los sesgos existentes no han sido explorados a profundidad. Analizamos los programas de conservación para más de 2,000 especies en tres países y así investigar los costos de la conservación de especies limitada a los grupos taxonómicos y cómo estos costos podrían afectar a la planeación de la conservación. Buscamos diferencias en el costo medio anual entre los grupos taxonómicos en cada conjunto de datos. Para el conjunto de datos de los Estados Unidos, los planes de recuperación difirieron en su duración, por lo que también buscamos diferencias en los costos totales entre los grupos taxonómicos. Aunque los costos para cada especie individual variaron ampliamente, hubo consistencias internacionales sólidas. Por ejemplo, la conservación de los mamíferos cuesta en promedio de 8-26 veces más que la de las plantas y de 13-19 veces más que la de los invertebrados acuáticos. En promedio, cuesta de 5-30 veces más la conservación de especies de aves que la de las plantas y de 6-14 veces más que la de los invertebrados acuáticos. Estas diferencias en los costos podrían agravar la asignación desigual de recursos entre los grupos taxonómicos de tal manera que los grupos taxonómicos más carismáticos reciben más atención y requieren de más recursos, resultando en el descuido de otros grupos taxonómicos.既有报道表明, 那些更受人们喜爱的类群如哺乳动物和鸟类, 获得的立法保护和保护优先等级均优于其它类群如昆虫和植物。然而, 保护各类群的相对成本以及保护成本与保护偏好性可能的相互作用尚不清楚。我们分析了 3 个国家 2000 余个物种的保护项目, 以研究各个类群中物种的保护成本及其对保护规划的影响。我们检验了每个数据集中类群之间年均保护成本的差异;其中, 美国的数据集由于持续年限不同, 我们还对其计算了类群之间总保护成本的差异。结果显示, 虽然对每个物种的保护成本相差很大, 但在不同国家情况是一致的。例如, 哺乳动物的平均保护成本是植物的 8-26 倍, 是水生无脊椎动物的 13-19 倍。而鸟类的平均保护成本则是植物的 5-30 倍, 同时是水生无脊椎动物的 6-14 倍。这样的差异可能会加剧类群之间资源分配的不平等, 使更受喜爱的类群受到更多关注的同时还得到更多资源, 从而导致其它类群受到忽视。【翻译:胡怡思;审校:聂永刚】.

Tropical deforestation is responsible for around one tenth of total anthropogenic carbon emissions, and tropical protected areas (PAs) that reduce deforestation can therefore play an important role in mitigating climate change and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation has been estimated, the impact on global carbon emissions remains unquantified. Here we show that tropical PAs overall reduced deforestation carbon emissions by 4.88 Pg, or around 29%, between 2000 and 2012, when compared to expected rates of deforestation controlling for spatial variation in deforestation pressure. The largest contribution was from the tropical Americas (368.8 GgC y

Advances in forest carbon mapping have the potential to greatly reduce uncertainties in the global carbon budget and to facilitate effective emissions mitigation strategies such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). Though broad-scale mapping is based primarily on remote sensing data, the accuracy of resulting forest carbon stock estimates depends critically on the quality of field measurements and calibration procedures. The mismatch in spatial scales between field inventory plots and larger pixels of current and planned remote sensing products for forest biomass mapping is of particular concern, as it has the potential to introduce errors, especially if forest biomass shows strong local spatial variation. Here, we used 30 large (8–50 ha) globally distributed permanent forest plots to quantify the spatial variability in aboveground biomass density (AGBD in Mg ha–1) at spatial scales ranging from 5 to 250 m (0.025–6.25 ha), and to evaluate the implications of this variability for calibrating remote sensing products using simulated remote sensing footprints. We found that local spatial variability in AGBD is large for standard plot sizes, averaging 46.3% for replicate 0.1 ha subplots within a single large plot, and 16.6% for 1 ha subplots. AGBD showed weak spatial autocorrelation at distances of 20–400 m, with autocorrelation higher in sites with higher topographic variability and statistically significant in half of the sites. We further show that when field calibration plots are smaller than the remote sensing pixels, the high local spatial variability in AGBD leads to a substantial "dilution" bias in calibration parameters, a bias that cannot be removed with standard statistical methods. Our results suggest that topography should be explicitly accounted for in future sampling strategies and that much care must be taken in designing calibration schemes if remote sensing of forest carbon is to achieve its promise.

Accurate estimations of carbon stocks across large tracts of tropical forests are key for participation in programs promoting avoided deforestation and carbon sequestration, such as the UN REDD+ framework. Trained local technicians can provide such data, and this, combined with satellite imagery, allows robust carbon stock estimation across vegetation classes and large areas. In the first comprehensive survey in Guyana conducted by indigenous people, ground data from 21 study sites in the Rupununi region were used to estimate above ground tree carbon density across a diversity of ecosystems and land use types. Carbon stocks varied between village sites from 1Tg to 22.7Tg, and these amounts were related to stem density and diameter. This variation was correlated with vegetation type across the region, with savannas holding on average 14MgCha-1 and forests 153MgCha-1. The results indicated that previous estimates based on remotely sensed data for this area may be inaccurate (under estimations). There were also differences in carbon densities between village sites and uninhabited control areas, which are presumably driven by community use. Recruiting local technicians for field work allowed (a) large amounts of ground data to be collected for a wide region otherwise hard to access, and (b) ensured that local people were directly involved in Guyana's Low Carbon Development Strategy as part of REDD+. This is the first such comprehensive survey of carbon stocks, carbon density and vegetation types over a large area in Guyana, one of the first countries to develop such a program. The potential inclusion of forests held by indigenous peoples in REDD+ programs is a global issue: we clearly show that indigenous people are capable of assessing and monitoring carbon on their lands.

Early project-level initiatives of ‘reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation’ (REDD+) have left a negative impression among many forest-dependent peoples (FDP) across the tropics. As countries move towards national-level implementation and results-based payments, it is timely to analyze the effects of ‘national REDD+’ on FDP. We use Guyana’s technically approved United Nations Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL) submission and Opt-In Mechanism to assess how fifteen indigenous communities with tenured forestland may financially benefit from national REDD+, and evaluate whether, and to what extent, Guyana forms a best-case scenario. In addition, we provide a first-time assessment whether field estimates of the average carbon density of mature forests managed by fifteen forest-dependent communities (beyond rotational farming lands) equals that of nearby unmanaged mature forest, as this could affect REDD+ payment levels. We conclude that, notwithstanding some pending issues, Guyana’s national REDD+ program could be very beneficial for FDP, even under a modest United States (US) $5 unit carbon price. We present economic evidence to support forest governance change domestically in sovereign developing countries that may ease FDP tenure and national REDD+ implementation. The average carbon density was locally substantially less in FDP-managed forest, but had little effect on the overall carbon stock of the titled forest area, and is considered modest when incorporating ecological and socioeconomic attributes. Partnerships with FDP when combined with advances in remote sensing could have potential for economic monitoring of forest emissions across the tropics.