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Objective To identify trajectories of social and occupational functioning in young people during the two years after presenting for early intervention mental health care; to identify demographic and clinical factors that influence these trajectories. Design Longitudinal, observational study of young people presenting for mental health care. Setting Two primary care-based early intervention mental health services at the Brain and Mind Centre (University of Sydney), 1 June 2008 - 31 July 2018. Participants 1510 people aged 12-25 years who had presented with anxiety, mood, or psychotic disorders, for whom two years' follow-up data were available for analysis. Main outcome measures Latent class trajectories of social and occupational functioning based on growth mixture modelling of Social and Occupational Assessment Scale (SOFAS) scores. Results We identified four trajectories of functioning during the first two years of care: deteriorating and volatile (733 participants, 49%); persistent impairment (237, 16%); stable good functioning (291, 19%); and improving, but late recurrence (249, 16%). The less favourable trajectories (deteriorating and volatile; persistent impairment) were associated with physical comorbidity, not being in education, employment, or training, having substance-related disorders, having been hospitalised, and having a childhood onset mental disorder, psychosis-like experiences, or a history of self-harm or suicidality. Conclusions Two in three young people with emerging mental disorders did not experience meaningful improvement in social and occupational functioning during two years of early intervention care. Most functional trajectories were also quite volatile, indicating the need for dynamic service models that emphasise multidisciplinary interventions and measurement-based care.

Neurocognitive impairment is commonly associated with functional disability in established depressive, bipolar and psychotic disorders. However, little is known about the longer-term functional implications of these impairments in early phase transdiagnostic cohorts. We aimed to examine associations between neurocognition and functioning at baseline and over time. We used mixed effects models to investigate associations between neurocognitive test scores and longitudinal social and occupational functioning (“Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale”) at 1–7 timepoints over five-years in 767 individuals accessing youth mental health services. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, premorbid IQ, and symptom severity. Lower baseline functioning was associated with male sex (coefficient −3.78, 95% CI −5.22 to −2.34 p

IntroductionApproximately 75% of major mental illness occurs before the age of 25 years. Despite this, our capacity to provide effective, early and personalised interventions is limited by insufficient evidence for characterising early-stage, and less specific, presentations of major mental disorders in youth populations. This article describes the protocol for setting up a large-scale database that will collect longitudinal, prospective data that incorporate clinical, social and occupational function, neuropsychological, circadian, metabolic, family history and genetic metrics. By collecting data in a research-purposed, standardised manner, the ‘Neurobiology Youth Follow-up Study’ should improve identification, characterisation and profiling of youth attending mental healthcare, to better inform diagnosis and treatment at critical time points. The overall goal is enhanced long-term clinical and functional outcomes.Methods and analysisThis longitudinal clinical cohort study will invite participation from youth (12–30 years) who seek help for mental health-related issues at an early intervention service (headspace Camperdown) and linked services. Participants will be prospectively tracked over 3 years with a series of standardised multimodal assessments at baseline, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Evaluations will include: (1) clinician-administered and self-report assessments determining clinical stage, pathophysiological pathways to illness, diagnosis, symptomatology, social and occupational function; (2) neuropsychological profile; (3) sleep–wake patterns and circadian rhythms; (4) metabolic markers and (5) genetics. These data will be used to: (1) model the impact of demographic, phenomenological and treatment variables, on clinical and functional outcomes; (2) map neurobiological profiles and changes onto a transdiagnostic clinical stage and pathophysiological mechanisms framework.Ethics and disseminationThis study protocol has been approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District (2020/ETH01272, protocol V.1.3, 14 October 2020). Research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and presentations at scientific conferences and to user and advocacy groups. Participant data will be de-identified.

BackgroundA priority for health services is to reduce self-harm in young people. Predicting self-harm is challenging due to their rarity and complexity, however this does not preclude the utility of prediction models to improve decision-making regarding a service response in terms of more detailed assessments and/or intervention. The aim of this study was to predict self-harm within six-months after initial presentation.MethodThe study included 1962 young people (12–30 years) presenting to youth mental health services in Australia. Six machine learning algorithms were trained and tested with ten repeats of ten-fold cross-validation. The net benefit of these models were evaluated using decision curve analysis.ResultsOut of 1962 young people, 320 (16%) engaged in self-harm in the six months after first assessment and 1642 (84%) did not. The top 25% of young people as ranked by mean predicted probability accounted for 51.6% - 56.2% of all who engaged in self-harm. By the top 50%, this increased to 82.1%-84.4%. Models demonstrated fair overall prediction (AUROCs; 0.744–0.755) and calibration which indicates that predicted probabilities were close to the true probabilities (brier scores; 0.185–0.196). The net benefit of these models were positive and superior to the ‘treat everyone’ strategy. The strongest predictors were (in ranked order); a history of self-harm, age, social and occupational functioning, sex, bipolar disorder, psychosis-like experiences, treatment with antipsychotics, and a history of suicide ideation.ConclusionPrediction models for self-harm may have utility to identify a large sub population who would benefit from further assessment and targeted (low intensity) interventions. Such models could enhance health service approaches to identify and reduce self-harm, a considerable source of distress, morbidity, ongoing health care utilisation and mortality.

Background Neurocognitive impairment is recognised as a risk factor for suicidal behaviour in adults. The current study aims to determine whether neurocognitive deficits also predict ongoing or emergent suicidal behaviour in young people with affective disorders. Methods Participants were aged 12-30 years and presented to early intervention youth mental health clinics between 2008 and 2018. In addition to clinical assessment a standardised neurocognitive assessment was conducted at baseline. Clinical data was extracted from subsequent visits using a standardised proforma. Results Of the 635 participants who met inclusion criteria (mean age 19.6 years, 59% female, average follow up 476 days) 104 (16%) reported suicidal behaviour during care. In 5 of the 10 neurocognitive domains tested (cognitive flexibility, processing speed, working memory, verbal memory and visuospatial memory) those with suicidal behaviour during care were superior to clinical controls. Better general neurocognitive function remained a significant predictor (OR=1.94, 95% CI 1.29- 2.94) of suicidal behaviour in care after controlling for other risk factors. Limitations The neurocognitive battery used was designed for use with affective and psychotic disorders and may not have detected some deficits more specific to suicidal behaviour. Conclusion Contrary to expectations, better neurocognitive functioning predicts suicidal behaviour during care in young people with affective disorders. While other populations with suicidal behaviour, such as adults with affective disorders or young people with psychotic disorders, tend to experience neurocognitive deficits which may limit their capacity to engage in some interventions, this does not appear to be the case for young people with affective disorders.

Purpose The Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) Optymise cohort assesses multiple clinical and functional domains longitudinally in young people presenting for mental health care and treatment. Longitudinal tracking of this cohort will allow investigation of the relationships between multiple outcome domains across the course of care. Subsets of Optymise have completed detailed neuropsychological and neurobiological assessments, permitting investigation of associations between these measures and longitudinal course. Participants Young people (aged 12–30) presenting to clinics coordinated by the BMC were recruited to a research register (n=6743) progressively between June 2008 and July 2018. To date, 2767 individuals have been included in Optymise based on the availability of at least one detailed clinical assessment. Measures Trained researchers use a clinical research proforma to extract key data from clinical files to detail social and occupational functioning, clinical presentation, self-harm and suicidal thoughts and behaviours, alcohol and other substance use, physical health comorbidities, personal and family history of mental illness, and treatment utilisation at the following time points: baseline, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months, and time last seen. Findings to date There is moderate to substantial agreement between raters for data collected via the proforma. While wide variations in individual illness course are clear, social and occupational outcomes suggest that the majority of cohort members show no improvement in functioning over time. Differential rates of longitudinal transition are reported between early and late stages of illness, with a number of baseline factors associated with these transitions. Furthermore, there are longitudinal associations between prior suicide attempts and inferior clinical and functional outcomes. Future plans Future reports will detail the longitudinal course of each outcome domain and examine multidirectional relationships between these domains both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, and explore in subsets the associations between detailed neurobiological measures and clinical, social and functional outcomes.

PurposeThe Brain and Mind Centre (BMC)Optymisecohort assesses multiple clinical and functional domains longitudinally in young people presenting for mental health care and treatment. Longitudinal tracking of this cohort will allow investigation of the relationships between multiple outcome domains across the course of care. Subsets ofOptymisehave completed detailed neuropsychological and neurobiological assessments, permitting investigation of associations between these measures and longitudinal course.ParticipantsYoung people (aged 12–30) presenting to clinics coordinated by the BMC were recruited to a research register (n=6743) progressively between June 2008 and July 2018. To date, 2767 individuals have been included inOptymisebased on the availability of at least one detailed clinical assessment.MeasuresTrained researchers use a clinical research proforma to extract key data from clinical files to detail social and occupational functioning, clinical presentation, self-harm and suicidal thoughts and behaviours, alcohol and other substance use, physical health comorbidities, personal and family history of mental illness, and treatment utilisation at the following time points: baseline, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months, and time last seen.Findings to dateThere is moderate to substantial agreement between raters for data collected via the proforma. While wide variations in individual illness course are clear, social and occupational outcomes suggest that the majority of cohort members show no improvement in functioning over time. Differential rates of longitudinal transition are reported between early and late stages of illness, with a number of baseline factors associated with these transitions. Furthermore, there are longitudinal associations between prior suicide attempts and inferior clinical and functional outcomes.Future plansFuture reports will detail the longitudinal course of each outcome domain and examine multidirectional relationships between these domains both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, and explore in subsets the associations between detailed neurobiological measures and clinical, social and functional outcomes.

Background Neurocognitive impairments robustly predict functional outcome. However, heterogeneity in neurocognition is common within diagnostic groups, and data-driven analyses reveal homogeneous neurocognitive subgroups cutting across diagnostic boundaries. Aims To determine whether data-driven neurocognitive subgroups of young people with emerging mental disorders are associated with 3-year functional course. Method Model-based cluster analysis was applied to neurocognitive test scores across nine domains from 629 young people accessing mental health clinics. Cluster groups were compared on demographic, clinical and substance-use measures. Mixed-effects models explored associations between cluster-group membership and socio-occupational functioning (using the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) over 3 years, adjusted for gender, premorbid IQ, level of education, depressive, positive, negative and manic symptoms, and diagnosis of a primary psychotic disorder. Results Cluster analysis of neurocognitive test scores derived three subgroups described as ‘normal range’ (n = 243, 38.6%), ‘intermediate impairment’ (n = 252, 40.1%), and ‘global impairment’ (n = 134, 21.3%). The major mental disorder categories (depressive, anxiety, bipolar, psychotic and other) were represented in each neurocognitive subgroup. The global impairment subgroup had lower functioning for 3 years of follow-up; however, neither the global impairment (B = 0.26, 95% CI −0.67 to 1.20; P = 0.581) or intermediate impairment (B = 0.46, 95% CI −0.26 to 1.19; P = 0.211) subgroups differed from the normal range subgroup in their rate of change in functioning over time. Conclusions Neurocognitive impairment may follow a continuum of severity across the major syndrome-based mental disorders, with data-driven neurocognitive subgroups predictive of functional course. Of note, the global impairment subgroup had longstanding functional impairment despite continuing engagement with clinical services.

A key population-health priority is to reduce the rates of premature death and illness burden due to the common anxiety and mood disorders that typically have their onset during adolescence and early-adult years. From an individual clinical and health services planning perspective, evidence relating to the potential impacts of early identification, secondary prevention, and enhanced long-term care strategies is required. Over the past decade, we have accumulated substantial cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence from a cohort of more than 7000 individuals detailing how these types of services can be developed, structured, and evaluated for young people with emerging mood disorders. A clear conclusion is that impairment and concurrent morbidity is well-established in these young people (mean age 18 years) by the time they present for mental health-focused care. A clear caveat, however, is that early identification, followed by standard care, does not automatically result in improved outcomes. While much work is yet to be done in the development of individual-level and service-level care packages to reduce morbidity and mortality, our key findings support the utility of clinical staging as an adjunct to traditional diagnostic frameworks, the recognition of at least three pathophysiological underlying paths (resulting in different age-dependent phenotypes in childhood and adolescence), and a strong focus on implementing a genuinely multidimensional assessment and longitudinal outcomes framework.

Importance The large contribution of psychiatric disorders to premature death and persistent disability among young people means that earlier identification and enhanced long-term care for those who are most at risk of developing life-threatening or chronic disorders is critical. Clinical staging as an adjunct to diagnosis to address emerging psychiatric disorders has been proposed for young people presenting for care; however, the longer-term utility of this system has not been established. Objectives To determine the rates of transition from earlier to later stages of anxiety, mood, psychotic, or comorbid disorders and to identify the demographic and clinical characteristics that are associated with the time course of these transitions. Design, Setting, and Participants A longitudinal, observational study of 2254 persons aged 12 to 25 years who obtained mental health care at 2 early intervention mental health services in Sydney, Australia, and were recruited to a research register between June 18, 2008, and July 24, 2018 (the Brain and Mind Centre Optymise Cohort). Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome of this study was transition from earlier to later clinical stages. A multistate Markov model was used to examine demographic (ie, age, sex, engagement in education, employment, or both) and clinical (ie, social and occupational function, clinical presentation, personal history of mental illness, physical health comorbidities, treatment use, self-harm, suicidal thoughts and behaviors) factors associated with these transitions. Results Of the 2254 individuals included in the study, mean (SD) age at baseline was 18.18 (3.33) years and 1330 (59.0%) were female. Data on race/ethnicity were not available. Median (interquartile range) follow-up was 14 (5-33) months. Of 685 participants at stage 1a (nonspecific symptoms), 253 (36.9%) transitioned to stage 1b (attenuated syndromes). Transition was associated with lower social functioning (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% CI, 0.66-0.90), engagement with education, employment, or both (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.25-0.91), manic-like experiences (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.19-3.78), psychotic-like experiences (HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.38-3.28), self-harm (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99), and older age (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.11-1.45). Of 1370 stage 1b participants, 176 (12.8%) transitioned to stage 2 (full-threshold) disorders. Transition was associated with psychotic-like experiences (HR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.65-3.23), circadian disturbance (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.17-2.35), psychiatric medication (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.03-1.99), childhood psychiatric disorder (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.03-2.54), and older age (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45). Conclusions and Relevance Differential rates of progression from earlier to later stages of anxiety, mood, psychotic, or comorbid disorders were observed in young persons who presented for care at various stages. Understanding the rate and factors associated with transition assists planning of stage-specific clinical interventions and secondary prevention trials.

IntroductionMental disorders are a leading cause of long-term disability worldwide. Much of the burden of mental ill-health is mediated by early onset, comorbidities with physical health conditions and chronicity of the illnesses. This study aims to track the early period of mental disorders among young people presenting to Australian mental health services to facilitate more streamlined transdiagnostic processes, highly personalised and measurement-based care, secondary prevention and enhanced long-term outcomes.Methods and analysisRecruitment to this large-scale, multisite, prospective, transdiagnostic, longitudinal clinical cohort study (‘Youth Mental Health Tracker’) will be offered to all young people between the ages of 12 and 30 years presenting to participating services with proficiency in English and no history of intellectual disability. Young people will be tracked over 3 years with standardised assessments at baseline and 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Assessments will include self-report and clinician-administered measures, covering five key domains including: (1) social and occupational function; (2) self-harm, suicidal thoughts and behaviour; (3) alcohol or other substance misuse; (4) physical health; and (5) illness type, clinical stage and trajectory. Data collection will be facilitated by the use of health information technology. The data will be used to: (1) determine prospectively the course of multidimensional functional outcomes, based on the differential impact of demographics, medication, psychological interventions and other key potentially modifiable moderator variables and (2) map pathophysiological mechanisms and clinical illness trajectories to determine transition rates of young people to more severe illness forms.Ethics and disseminationThe study has been reviewed and approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH00469). All data will be non-identifiable, and research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and scientific conference presentations.

Aim The Transitions Study was designed to establish a cohort of young people (12–25 years) seeking help for mental health problems, in order to longitudinally explore and refine a clinical staging model of the development and progression of mental disorders. This paper presents the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of the cohort, particularly the nature and severity of psychopathology. Method All eligible young people attending one of four headspace clinical services were invited to participate, and completed a battery of self-report and interviewer-administered measures of psychopathology and functional impairment at baseline, which will be repeated at the annual follow up. Results Of 1615 eligible clients, 802 young people (66% women; mean age = 18.3 years) consented to participate and completed baseline assessments (participation rate = 50%). The severity of mental health problems varied, with 51% meeting the criteria for probable caseness related to generalized anxiety, 45% presenting with moderate to severe depressive symptoms and over a third experiencing subthreshold psychotic symptomatology. Disordered eating (32%) and problematic tobacco (56%), cannabis (30%) and alcohol (38%) use also affected a significant proportion. Overall, 39% of the cohort were classed as being functionally impaired at baseline. Conclusion The Transitions Study recruited a heterogeneous cohort at baseline in relation to the nature and severity of mental health problems and levels of functional impairment. The variation in clinical presentations within the cohort, from mild, through moderate to severe levels of psychopathology and impairment, increases the likelihood of the Transitions Study ultimately being able to achieve its aims of empirically testing a clinical staging model for mental disorders.

Aim An estimated 75% of mental disorders begin before the age of 24 and approximately 25% of 13–24-year-olds are affected by mental disorders at any one time. To better understand and ideally prevent the onset of post-pubertal mental disorders, a clinical staging model has been proposed that provides a longitudinal perspective of illness development. This heuristic model takes account of the differential effects of both genetic and environmental risk factors, as well as markers relevant to the stage of illness, course or prognosis. The aim of the Transitions Study is to test empirically the assumptions that underpin the clinical staging model. Additionally, it will permit investigation of a range of psychological, social and genetic markers in terms of their capacity to define current clinical stage or predict transition from less severe or enduring to more severe and persistent stages of mental disorder. Method This paper describes the study methodology, which involves a longitudinal cohort design implemented within four headspace youth mental health services in Australia. Participants are young people aged 12–25 years who have sought help at headspace and consented to complete a comprehensive assessment of clinical state and psychosocial risk factors. A total of 802 young people (66% female) completed baseline assessments. Annual follow-up assessments have commenced. Conclusions The results of this study may have implications for the way mental disorders are diagnosed and treated, and progress our understanding of the pathophysiologies of complex mental disorders by identifying genetic or psychosocial markers of illness stage or progression.

ObjectivesMental disorders typically emerge during adolescence and young adulthood and put young people at risk for prolonged socioeconomic difficulties. This study describes the longitudinal course of social and occupational functioning of young people attending primary care-based, early intervention services.DesignA longitudinal study of young people receiving mental healthcare.SettingData were collected between January 2005 and August 2017 from a designated primary care-based mental health service.Participants554 young people (54% women) aged 12–32 years.MeasuresA systematic medical file audit collected clinical and functional information at predetermined time intervals (ie, 3 months to 5+ years) using a clinical pro forma. Group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to identify distinct trajectories of social and occupational functioning over time (median number of observations per person=4; median follow-up time=23 months).ResultsBetween first clinical contact and time last seen, 15% of young people had reliably deteriorated, 23% improved and 62% did not demonstrate substantive change in function. Of the whole cohort, 69% had functional scores less than 70 at time last seen, indicative of ongoing and substantive impairment. GBTM identified six distinct functional trajectories whereby over 60% had moderate-to-serious functional impairment at entry and remained chronically impaired over time; 7% entered with serious impairment and deteriorated further; a quarter were mildly impaired at entry and functionally recovered and only a small minority (4%) presented with serious impairments and functionally improved over time. Not being in education, employment or training, previous hospitalisation and a younger age at baseline emerged as significant predictors of these functional trajectories.ConclusionYoung people with emerging mental disorders have significant functional impairment at presentation for care, and for the majority, it persists over the course of clinical care. In addition to providing clinical care earlier in the course of illness, these data suggest that more sophisticated and more intensive individual-level and organisational strategies may be required to achieve significant and sustained functional improvements.

The Transitions Study was designed to establish a cohort of young people (12-25 years) seeking help for mental health problems, in order to longitudinally explore and refine a clinical staging model of the development and progression of mental disorders. This paper presents the baseline demographic and clinical characteristics of the cohort, particularly the nature and severity of psychopathology.All eligible young people attending one of four headspace clinical services were invited to participate, and completed a battery of self-report and interviewer-administered measures of psychopathology and functional impairment at baseline, which will be repeated at the annual follow up.Of 1615 eligible clients, 802 young people (66% women; mean age = 18.3 years) consented to participate and completed baseline assessments (participation rate = 50%). The severity of mental health problems varied, with 51% meeting the criteria for probable caseness related to generalized anxiety, 45% presenting with moderate to severe depressive symptoms and over a third experiencing subthreshold psychotic symptomatology. Disordered eating (32%) and problematic tobacco (56%), cannabis (30%) and alcohol (38%) use also affected a significant proportion. Overall, 39% of the cohort were classed as being functionally impaired at baseline.The Transitions Study recruited a heterogeneous cohort at baseline in relation to the nature and severity of mental health problems and levels of functional impairment. The variation in clinical presentations within the cohort, from mild, through moderate to severe levels of psychopathology and impairment, increases the likelihood of the Transitions Study ultimately being able to achieve its aims of empirically testing a clinical staging model for mental disorders.