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Infants born extremely preterm (28 weeks' gestation) are at high risk of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) with 50% of survivors showing moderate or severe NDI when at 2 years of age. We sought to develop novel models by which to predict neurodevelopmental outcomes, hypothesizing that combining baseline characteristics at birth with medical care and environmental exposures would produce the most accurate model.Using a prospective database of 692 infants from the Preterm Epo Neuroprotection (PENUT) Trial, which was carried out between December 2013 and September 2016, we developed three predictive algorithms of increasing complexity using a Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) machine learning approach to predict both NDI and continuous Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development 3rd ed subscales at 2 year follow-up using: 1) the 5 variables used in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Extremely Preterm Birth Outcomes Tool, 2) 21 variables associated with outcomes in extremely preterm (EP) infants, and 3) a hypothesis-free approach using 133 potential variables available for infants in the PENUT database.The NICHD 5-variable model predicted 3-4% of the variance in the Bayley subscale scores, and predicted NDI with an area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC, 95% CI) of 0.62 (0.56-0.69). Accuracy increased to 12-20% of variance explained and an AUROC of 0.77 (0.72-0.83) when using the 21 pre-selected clinical variables. Hypothesis-free variable selection using BART resulted in models that explained 20-31% of Bayley subscale scores and AUROC of 0.87 (0.83-0.91) for severe NDI, with good calibration across the range of outcome predictions. However, even with the most accurate models, the average prediction error for the Bayley subscale predictions was around 14-15 points, leading to wide prediction intervals. Higher total transfusion volume was the most important predictor of severe NDI and lower Bayley scores across all subscales.While the machine learning BART approach meaningfully improved predictive accuracy above a widely used prediction tool (NICHD) as well as a model utilizing NDI-associated clinical characteristics, the average error remained approximately 1 standard deviation on either side of the true value. Although dichotomous NDI prediction using BART was more accurate than has been previously reported, and certain clinical variables such as transfusion exposure were meaningfully predictive of outcomes, our results emphasize the fact that the field is still not able to accurately predict the results of complex long-term assessments such as Bayley subscales in infants born EP even when using rich datasets and advanced analytic methods. This highlights the ongoing need for long-term follow-up of all EP infants.Supported by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and StrokeU01NS077953 and U01NS077955.

Objectives To compare the term equivalent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings between erythropoietin (Epo) treated and placebo control groups in infants 240/7-276/7 weeks of gestational age and to assess the associations between MRI findings and neurodevelopmental outcomes at 2 years corrected age. Study design The association between brain abnormality scores and Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Third Edition at 2 years corrected age was explored in a subset of infants enrolled in the Preterm Erythropoietin Neuroprotection Trial. Potential risk factors for neurodevelopmental outcomes such as treatment assignment, recruitment site, gestational age, inpatient complications, and treatments were examined using generalized estimating equation models. Results One hundred ten infants were assigned to Epo and 110 to placebo groups. 27% of MRI scans were rated as normal, and 60%, 10%, and 2% were rated as having mild, moderate, or severe abnormality. Brain abnormality scores did not significantly differ between the treatment groups. Factors that increased the risk of higher brain injury scores included intubation; bronchopulmonary dysplasia; retinopathy of prematurity; opioid, benzodiazepine, or antibiotic treatment >7 days; and periventricular leukomalacia or severe intraventricular hemorrhage diagnosed on cranial ultrasound. Increased global brain abnormality and white matter injury scores at term equivalent were associated with reductions in cognitive, motor, and language abilities at 2 years of corrected age. Conclusions Evidence of brain injury on brain MRIs obtained at term equivalent correlated with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes as assessed by the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition at 2 years corrected age. Early Epo treatment had no effect on the MRI brain injury scores compared with the placebo group.

BACKGROUND Our understanding of the normative concentrations of urine biomarkers in premature neonates is limited. METHODS We evaluated urine from 750 extremely low gestational age (GA) neonates without severe acute kidney injury (AKI) to determine how GA affects ten different urine biomarkers at birth and over the first 30 postnatal days. Then, we investigated if the urine biomarkers changed over time at 27, 30, and 34 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA). Next, we evaluated the impact of sex on urine biomarker concentrations at birth and over time. Finally, we evaluated if urine biomarkers were impacted by treatment with erythropoietin (Epo). RESULTS We found that all ten biomarker concentrations differ at birth by GA and that some urine biomarker concentrations increase, while others decrease over time. At 27 weeks PMA, 7/10 urine biomarkers differed by GA. By 30 weeks PMA, 5/10 differed, and by 34 weeks PMA, only osteopontin differed by GA. About half of the biomarker concentrations differed by sex, and 4/10 showed different rates of change over time between males vs. females. We found no differences in urine biomarkers by treatment group. CONCLUSIONS The temporal patterns, GA, and sex differences need to be considered in urine AKI biomarker analyses. IMPACT Urine biomarker concentrations differ by GA at birth. Some urine biomarkers increase, while others decrease, over the first 30 postnatal days. Most urine biomarkers differ by GA at 27 weeks PMA, but are similar by 34 weeks PMA. Some urine biomarkers vary by sex in premature neonates. Urine biomarkers did not differ between neonates randomized to placebo vs. Epo.

Extremely preterm infants are among the populations receiving the highest levels of transfusions. Erythropoietin has not been recommended for premature infants because most studies have not demonstrated a decrease in donor exposure.To determine whether high-dose erythropoietin given within 24 hours of birth through postmenstrual age of 32 completed weeks will decrease the need for blood transfusions.The Preterm Erythropoietin Neuroprotection Trial (PENUT) is a randomized, double-masked clinical trial with participants enrolled at 19 sites consisting of 30 neonatal intensive care units across the United States. Participants were born at a gestational age of 24 weeks (0-6 days) to 27 weeks (6-7 days). Exclusion criteria included conditions known to affect neurodevelopmental outcomes. Of 3266 patients screened, 2325 were excluded, and 941 were enrolled and randomized to erythropoietin (n = 477) or placebo (n = 464). Data were collected from December 12, 2013, to February 25, 2019, and analyzed from March 1 to June 15, 2019.In this post hoc analysis, erythropoietin, 1000 U/kg, or placebo was given every 48 hours for 6 doses, followed by 400 U/kg or sham injections 3 times a week through postmenstrual age of 32 weeks.Need for transfusion, transfusion numbers and volume, number of donor exposures, and lowest daily hematocrit level are presented herein.A total of 936 patients (488 male [52.1%]) were included in the analysis, with a mean (SD) gestational age of 25.6 (1.2) weeks and mean (SD) birth weight of 799 (189) g. Erythropoietin treatment (vs placebo) decreased the number of transfusions (unadjusted mean [SD], 3.5 [4.0] vs 5.2 [4.4]), with a relative rate (RR) of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.59-0.75); the cumulative transfused volume (mean [SD], 47.6 [60.4] vs 76.3 [68.2] mL), with a mean difference of -25.7 (95% CI, 18.1-33.3) mL; and donor exposure (mean [SD], 1.6 [1.7] vs 2.4 [2.0]), with an RR of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.58-0.77). Despite fewer transfusions, erythropoietin-treated infants tended to have higher hematocrit levels than placebo-treated infants, most noticeable at gestational week 33 in infants with a gestational age of 27 weeks (mean [SD] hematocrit level in erythropoietin-treated vs placebo-treated cohorts, 36.9% [5.5%] vs 30.4% [4.6%] (P .001). Of 936 infants, 160 (17.1%) remained transfusion free at the end of 12 postnatal weeks, including 43 in the placebo group and 117 in the erythropoietin group (P .001).These findings suggest that high-dose erythropoietin as used in the PENUT protocol was effective in reducing transfusion needs in this population of extremely preterm infants.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01378273.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether extremely low gestational age neonates (ELGANs) randomized to erythropoietin have better or worse kidney-related outcomes during hospitalization and at 22–26 months corrected gestational age (cGA) compared with those randomized to placebo. STUDY DESIGN: We performed an ancillary study to a multicenter double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial of erythropoietin in ELGANs. RESULTS: The prevalence of severe (stage 2 or 3) acute kidney injury (AKI) was 18.2%. We did not find a statistically significant difference between those randomized to erythropoietin vs. placebo for in-hospital primary (severe AKI) or secondary outcomes (any AKI and serum creatinine [SCr]/ cystatin C values at days 0, 7, 9 and 14). At 22–26 months cGA, 16% of the cohort had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 30 mg/g, 23% had a systolic blood pressure (SBP) >95(th) percentile for age, and 40% had a diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >95(th) percentile for age. SBP >90(th) percentile occurred less often among recipients of erythropoietin (p95(th) percentile or DBP >90(th) or >95(th) percentiles. CONCLUSIONS: ELGANs have high rates of in-hospital AKI and kidney-related problems at 22–26 months cGA. Recombinant erythropoietin (rhEpo) may protect ELGANs against long-term elevated SBP, but does not appear to protect from AKI, low eGFR, albuminuria or elevated DBP at 22–26 months cGA.

BACKGROUND: High-dose erythropoietin has been shown to have a neuroprotective effect in preclinical models of neonatal brain injury, and phase 2 trials have suggested possible efficacy; however, the benefits and safety of this therapy in extremely preterm infants have not been established. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial of high-dose erythropoietin, we assigned 941 infants who were born at 24 weeks 0 days to 27 weeks 6 days of gestation to receive erythropoietin or placebo within 24 hours after birth. Erythropoietin was administered intravenously at a dose of 1000 U per kilogram of body weight every 48 hours for a total of six doses, followed by a maintenance dose of 400 U per kilogram three times per week by subcutaneous injection through 32 completed weeks of postmenstrual age. Placebo was administered as intravenous saline followed by sham injections. The primary outcome was death or severe neurodevelopmental impairment at 22 to 26 months of postmenstrual age. Severe neurodevelopmental impairment was defined as severe cerebral palsy or a composite motor or composite cognitive score of less than 70 (which corresponds to 2 SD below the mean, with higher scores indicating better performance) on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, third edition. RESULTS: A total of 741 infants were included in the per-protocol efficacy analysis: 376 received erythropoietin and 365 received placebo. There was no significant difference between the erythropoietin group and the placebo group in the incidence of death or severe neurodevelopmental impairment at 2 years of age (97 children [26%] vs. 94 children [26%]; relative risk, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.81 to 1.32; P = 0.80). There were no significant differences between the groups in the rates of retinopathy of prematurity, intracranial hemorrhage, sepsis, necrotizing enterocolitis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or death or in the frequency of serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: High-dose erythropoietin treatment administered to extremely preterm infants from 24 hours after birth through 32 weeks of postmenstrual age did not result in a lower risk of severe neurodevelopmental impairment or death at 2 years of age. (Funded by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; PENUT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01378273.)