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Background The size of the margin strongly influences the required sample size in non-inferiority and equivalence trials. What is sometimes ignored, however, is that for trials with binary outcomes, the scale of the margin – risk difference, risk ratio or odds ratio – also has a large impact on power and thus on sample size requirement. When considering several scales at the design stage of a trial, these sample size consequences should be taken into account. Sometimes, changing the scale may be needed at a later stage of a trial, for example, when the event proportion in the control arm turns out different from expected. Also after completion of a trial, a switch to another scale is sometimes made, for example, when using a regression model in a secondary analysis or when combining study results in a meta-analysis that requires unifying scales. The exact consequences of such switches are currently unknown. Methods and Results This article first outlines sample size consequences for different choices of analysis scale at the design stage of a trial. We add a new result on sample size requirement comparing the risk difference scale with the risk ratio scale. Then, we study two different approaches to changing the analysis scale after the trial has commenced: (1) mapping the original non-inferiority margin using the event proportion in the control arm that was anticipated at the design stage or (2) mapping the original non-inferiority margin using the observed event proportion in the control arm. We use simulations to illustrate consequences on type I and type II error rates. Methods are illustrated on the INES trial, a non-inferiority trial that compared single birth rates in subfertile couples after different fertility treatments. Our results demonstrate large differences in required sample size when choosing between risk difference, risk ratio and odds ratio scales at the design stage of non-inferiority trials. In some cases, the sample size requirement is twice as large on one scale compared with another. Changing the scale after commencing the trial using anticipated proportions mainly impacts type II error rate, whereas switching using observed proportions is not advised due to not maintaining type I error rate. Differences were more pronounced with larger margins. Conclusions Trialists should be aware that the analysis scale can have large impact on type I and type II error rates in non-inferiority trials.

IntroductionRecurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) is defined as the loss of two or more conceptions before 24 weeks gestation. Despite extensive diagnostic workup, in only 25%–40% an underlying cause is identified. Several factors may increase the risk for miscarriage, but the chance of a successful pregnancy is still high. Prognostic counselling plays a significant role in supportive care. The main limitation in current prediction models is the lack of a sufficiently large cohort, adjustment for relevant risk factors, and separation between cumulative live birth rate and the success chance in the next conception. In this project, we aim to make an individualised prognosis for the future chance of pregnancy success, which could lead to improved well-being and the ability managing reproductive choices.Methods and analysisIn this multicentre study, we will include both a prospective and a retrospective cohort of at least 931 and 1000 couples with RPL, respectively. Couples who have visited one of the three participating university hospitals in the Netherlands for intake are eligible for the study participation, with a follow-up duration of 5 years. General medical and obstetric history and reports of pregnancies after the initial consultation will be collected. Multiple imputation will be performed to cope for missing data. A Cox proportional hazards model for time to pregnancy will be developed to estimate the cumulative chance of a live birth within 3 years after intake. To dynamically estimate the chance of an ongoing pregnancy, given the outcome of earlier pregnancies after intake, a logistic regression model will be developed.Ethics and disseminationThe Medical Ethical Research Committee of the Leiden University Medical Center approved this study protocol (N22.025). There are no risks or burden associated with this study. Participant written informed consent is required for both cohorts. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at international conferences.Trial registration numberNCT05167812.

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has boosted the appearance of clinical predictions models in medical literature. Many of these models aim to provide guidance for decision making on treatment initiation. Special consideration on how to account for post-baseline treatments is needed when developing such models. We examined how post-baseline treatment was handled in published Covid-19 clinical prediction models and we illustrated how much estimated risks may differ according to how treatment is handled.MethodsFirstly, we reviewed 33 Covid-19 prognostic models published in literature in the period up to 5 May 2020. We extracted: (1) the reported intended use of the model; (2) how treatment was incorporated during model development and (3) whether the chosen analysis strategy was in agreement with the intended use. Secondly, we used nationwide Dutch data on hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 to illustrate how estimated mortality risks will differ when using four different analysis strategies to model ICU treatment.ResultsOf the 33 papers, 21 (64%) had misalignment between intended use and analysis strategy, 7 (21%) were unclear about the estimated risk and only 5 (15%) had clear alignment between intended use and analysis strategy. We showed with real data how different approaches to post-baseline treatment yield different estimated mortality risks, ranging between 33 and 46% for a 75 year-old patient with two medical conditions.ConclusionsMisalignment between intended use and analysis strategy is common in reported Covid-19 clinical prediction models. This can lead to considerable under or overestimation of intended risks.

Objectives Cure rate models accounting for cured and uncured patients, provide additional insights into long and short-term survival. We aim to evaluate the prognostic value of histological response and chemotherapy intensification on the cure fraction and progression-free survival (PFS) for the uncured patients. Design Retrospective analysis of a randomised controlled trial, MRC BO06 (EORTC 80931). Setting Population-based study but proposed methodology can be applied to other trial designs. Participants A total of 497 patients with resectable highgrade osteosarcoma, of which 118 were excluded because chemotherapy was not started, histological response was not reported, abnormal dose was reported or had disease progression during treatment. Intervention(s) Two regimens with the same anticipated cumulative dose (doxorubicin 6×75 mg/m2/week; cisplatin 6×100 mg/m2/week) over different time schedules: every 3 weeks in regimen-C and every 2 weeks in regimen-DI. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcome is PFS computed from end of treatment because cure, if it occurs, may happen at any time during treatment. A mixture cure model is used to study the effect of histological response and intensified chemotherapy on the cure status and PFS for the uncured patients. Results Histological response is a strong prognostic factor for the cure status (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.75 to 5.17), but it has no clear effect on PFS for the uncured patients (HR 0.78, –95% CI 0.53 to 1.16). The cure fractions are 55% (46%–63%) and 29% (22%–35%), respectively, among patients with good and poor histological response (GR, PR). The intensified regimen was associated with a higher cure fraction among PR (OR 1.90, 95% CI 0.93 to 3.89), with no evidence of effect for GR (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.59). Conclusions Accounting for cured patients is valuable in distinguishing the covariate effects on cure and PFS. Estimating cure chances based on these prognostic factors is relevant for counselling patients and can have an impact on treatment decisions. Trial registration number NCT86294690.

Birthweight (BW) is an important prognostic factor in newborns with congenital heart defects (CHD).To give an overview of the literature on BW z-score in children with isolated CHD.A systematic search was performed on isolated CHD and BW in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, COCHRANE Library and Emcare.Neonates with isolated CHD were included if a BW percentile, BW z-score or % small-or-gestational age (SGA) was reported.BW z-score and percentage SGA were pooled with random-effect meta-analysis. Quality and risk of bias were assessed using the modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale.Twenty-three articles (27 893 cases) were included. BW z-scores were retrieved from 11 articles, resulting in a pooled z-score of -0.20 (95% CI -0.50 to 0.11). The overall pooled prevalence of SGA10th percentile was 16.0% (95% CI 11.4-20.5; 14 studies). Subgroup analysis of major CHD showed similar results (BW z-score -0.23 and percentage SGA 16.2%).Overall BW in isolated CHD is within range of normality but impaired, with a 1.6-fold higher risk of SGA, irrespective of the type of CHD (major CHD vs all CHD combined). Our findings underline the association between CHD and BW. The use of BW z-scores provides insight into growth of all fetuses with CHD.Infants with a congenital heart defect (CHD) have a lower birthweight z-score and a higher incidence of small-for-gestational age (10th percentile). This was encountered both in the major CHD-group as well as in all-CHD combined group analysis. Future research on the association between birthweight and CHD should include all types of CHDs (including mild cardiac defects) and placental-related disease, such as pre-eclampsia. We advocate the use of international standardised fetal growth and birthweight charts in CHD research.

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a `predictimand' framework of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. We provide a formal definition of the estimands matching these questions, give examples of settings in which each is useful and discuss appropriate estimators including their assumptions. We illustrate the impact of the predictimand choice in a dataset of patients with end-stage kidney disease. We argue that clearly defining the estimand is equally important in prediction research as in causal inference., Comment: under review

In daily haematological practice, predicting bleeding in thrombocytopenic patients is difficult, and clinicians adhere to transfusion triggers to guide patients through the aplastic phase of chemotherapy. Platelet count is not the only determinant of bleeding and additional mechanisms for impending haemostasis are likely. Beside clot formation, platelets are essential for the maintenance of integrity of vascular beds. We therefore prospectively investigated associations between biomarkers for endothelial damage (urine albumin excretion) and inflammation (C-reactive protein) and bleeding (WHO grading) in 88 patients with 116 on-protocol episodes. We found an increase in grade 2 bleeding with a higher urine albumin/creatinine ratio one day after the measurement [odds ratio (OR) 1 center dot 24 for every doubling of the ratio, 95% CI 1 center dot 05-1 center dot 46, P-value 0 center dot 01] and a 29% increase in the odds of grade 2 bleeding for every doubling of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) (95% CI 1 center dot 04-1 center dot 60, P-value 0 center dot 02) after correction for morning platelet count. The 24 h post-transfusion corrected count increment (CCI24) showed a significant association with these biomarkers: increasing urine albumin/creatinine ratio and CRP were associated with lower CCI24. We report two inexpensive and easy-to-apply biomarkers that could be useful in designing a prediction model for bleeding risk in thrombocytopenic patients.

Background External validation of prognostic models is necessary to assess the accuracy and generalizability of the model to new patients. If models are validated in a setting in which competing events occur, these competing risks should be accounted for when comparing predicted risks to observed outcomes. Methods We discuss existing measures of calibration and discrimination that incorporate competing events for time-to-event models. These methods are illustrated using a clinical-data example concerning the prediction of kidney failure in a population with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), using the guideline-recommended Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The KFRE was developed using Cox regression in a diverse population of CKD patients and has been proposed for use in patients with advanced CKD in whom death is a frequent competing event. Results When validating the 5-year KFRE with methods that account for competing events, it becomes apparent that the 5-year KFRE considerably overestimates the real-world risk of kidney failure. The absolute overestimation was 10%age points on average and 29%age points in older high-risk patients. Conclusions It is crucial that competing events are accounted for during external validation to provide a more reliable assessment the performance of a model in clinical settings in which competing risks occur.

BackgroundConvalescent plasma (CP) for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 has not demonstrated clear benefits. However, data on outpatients with early symptoms are scarce. We aimed to assess whether treatment with CP administered during the first 7 days of symptoms reduced the disease progression or risk of hospitalization of outpatients.MethodsTwo double-blind randomized trials (NCT04621123, NCT04589949) were merged with data pooling starting when ResultsOf 797 patients included, 390 received CP and 392 placebo. At baseline, they had a median age of 58 years, 1 comorbidity, symptoms for 5 days and 93% tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 S-protein IgG antibodies. Seventy-four patients were hospitalized, 6 required mechanical ventilation and 3 died. The OR of CP for an improved disease severity scale was 0.936 (credible interval (CI) 0.667-1.311). The OR for hospitalization or death was 0.919 (CI 0.592-1.416). The effect of CP on hospital admission or death was largest in patients with ≤5 days of symptoms (OR 0.658, 95% CI 0.394-1.085). CP did not decrease the time to full symptom resolution (p=0.62).ConclusionTreatment with CP of outpatients in the first 7 days of symptoms did not improve the outcome of COVID-19. The possible beneficial effect in patients with ≤5 days of symptoms requires further study.RegistrationNCT04621123 and NCT04589949 on https://www.clinicaltrials.govFunding sourceZONMW, the Netherlands, grant number 10430062010001.SUPPORT-E, grant number 101015756YoMeCorono, www.tomecorono.comThe Fight AIDS and Infectious Diseases Foundation with funding from the pharmaceutical company Grifols S.A

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Most patients with congenital heart disease survive into adulthood; however, residual abnormalities remain and management of the patients is life-long and personalized. Patients with surgical repair of transposition of the great arteries, for example, face the risk to develop neoaortic valve regurgitation. Cardiologists update the prognosis of the patient intuitively with updated information of the cardiovascular status of the patient, for instance from echocardiographic imaging. Methods: Usually a time-dependent version of the Cox model is used to analyze repeated measurements with a time-to-event outcome. New statistical methods have been developed with multiple advantages, of which the most prominent one being the joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event outcome. In this tutorial, the joint modeling framework is introduced and applied to patients with transposition of the great arteries after surgery with a long-term follow-up, where repeated echocardiographic values of the neoaortic root are evaluated against the risk of neoaortic valve regurgitation. Results: The data are analyzed with the time-dependent Cox model as benchmark method, and the results are compared with a joint model, leading to different conclusions. The flexibility of the joint model is shown by adding the growth rate of the neoaortic root to the model and adding repeated values of body surface area to obtain a multimarker model. Lastly, it is demonstrated how the joint model can be used to obtain personalized dynamic predictions of the event. Conclusions: The joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event data is an attractive method to analyze data in follow-up studies with repeated measurements. Benefits of the method include using the estimated natural trajectory of the longitudinal outcome, great flexibility through multiple extensions, and dynamic individualized predictions.

Introduction: Neurodevelopmental delay is more common in children born with congenital heart defects (CHD), even with optimal perinatal and peri-operative care. It is hypothesized that fetuses with CHD are prone to neurological impairment in utero due to their cardiac defect, possibly leading to delayed cortical development. Methods: Cerebral cortical maturation was assessed with advanced neurosonographic examinations every 4 weeks in fetuses with CHD and compared to control fetuses. Five different primary fissures and four areas were scored (ranging 0–5) by blinded examiners using a cortical maturation scheme. Results: Cortical staging was assessed in 574 ultrasound examinations in 85 CHD fetuses and 61 controls. Small differences in grading were seen in Sylvian and cingulate fissures. (Sylvian fissure: −0.12 grade, 95% CI (−0.23; −0.01) p = 0.05, cingulate fissure: −0.24 grade, 95% CI (−0.38; −0.10) p =

IntroductionRespiratory tract infections (RTIs) affect children all over the world and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In particular, recurrent RTIs cause a high burden of disease and lead to frequent doctor visits. Children with recurrent RTIs generally have no significant alterations or deficits in systemic immunity. In an attempt to treat the assumed bacterial component involved, they are often treated with prolonged courses of prophylactic antibiotics taken on a daily basis. Despite its common use, there is no evidence that this is beneficial. Studies assessing the clinical effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis as well as potential adverse effects and antibiotic resistance development, are therefore urgently needed.Methods and analysisWe present a protocol for a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial comparing co-trimoxazole with placebo treatment in children with recurrent RTIs. A total of 158 children (aged 6 months–10 years) with recurrent RTIs without significant comorbidity will be enrolled from a minimum of 10 Dutch hospitals. One group receives co-trimoxazole 18 mg/kg two times per day (36 mg/kg/day) and the other group receives a placebo two times per day for a period of 3 months. The main objective is to determine whether antibiotic prophylaxis is more effective than placebo to prevent/reduce respiratory symptoms in children with recurrent RTIs. Respiratory symptoms will be scored by parents on a daily basis in both study arms by the use of a mobile phone application. Our primary outcome will be the number of days with at least two respiratory symptoms during the treatment.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval was obtained from the Medical Ethics Research Committee Zuidwest Holland/LDD. A manuscript with the study results will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. All participants will be informed about the study results. The results of the study will inform clinical guidelines regarding the prophylactic treatment of children with recurrent RTIs.Trial registration numberNL7044.

ObjectivesFunctional development of the fetal cardiac autonomic nervous system (cANS) plays a key role in fetal maturation and can be assessed through fetal heart rate variability (fHRV)-analysis, with each HRV parameter representing different aspects of cANS activity. Current available techniques, however, are unable to assess the fHRV parameters accurately throughout the whole pregnancy. This study aims to test the feasibility of color tissue Doppler imaging (cTDI) as a new ultrasound technique for HRV analysis. Secondly, we explored time trends of fHRV parameters using this technique.Methods18 healthy singleton fetuses were examined sequentially every 8 weeks from 10 weeks GA onwards. From each examination, 3 cTDI recordings of the four-chamber view of 10 seconds were retrieved to determine accurate beat-to-beat intervals. The fHRV parameters SDNN, RMSSD, SDNN/RMSSD, and pNN10, each representing different functional aspects of the cANS, were measured, and time trends during pregnancy were explored using spline functions within a linear mixed-effects model.ResultsIn total, 77% (95% Cl 66–87%) of examinations were feasible for fHRV analysis from the first trimester onwards, which is a great improvement compared to other techniques. The technique is able to determine different maturation rates of the fHRV parameters, showing that cANS function, presumably parasympathetic activity, establishes around 20 weeks GA and matures rapidly until 30 weeks GA.ConclusionsThis is the first study able to assess cANS function through fHRV analysis from the first trimester onwards. The use of cTDI to determine beat-to-beat intervals seems feasible in just 3 clips of 10 seconds, which holds promise for future clinical use in assessing fetal well-being.

Objective. To identify clinicopathological characteristics, treatment patterns, clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with vulvar melanoma (VM). Materials & methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study included 198 women with VM treated in eight cancer centres in the Netherlands and UK between 1990 and 2017. Clinicopathological features, treatment, recurrence, and survival data were collected. Overall and recurrence-free survival was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic parameters were identified with multivariable Cox regression analysis. Results. The majority of patients (75.8%) had localized disease at diagnosis. VM was significantly associated with high-riskclinicopathological features, including age, tumour thickness, ulceration, positive resection margins and involved lymph nodes. Overall survival was 48% (95% CI 40?56%) and 31% (95% CI 23?39%) after 2 and 5 years respectively and did not improve in patients diagnosed after 2010 compared to patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2009. Recurrence occurred in 66.7% of patients, of which two-third was non-local. In multivariable analysis, age and tumour size were independent prognostic factors for worse survival. Prognostic factors for recurrence were tumour size and tumour type. Only the minority of patients were treated with immuno- or targeted therapy. Conclusion. Our results show that even clinically early-stage VM is an aggressive disease associated with poor clinical outcome due to distant metastases. Further investigation into the genomic landscape and the immune microenvironment in VM may pave the way to novel therapies to improve clinical outcomes in these aggressive tumours. Clinical trials with immunotherapy or targeted therapy in patients with high-risk, advanced or metastatic disease are highly needed.Objective. To identify clinicopathological characteristics, treatment patterns, clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in patients with vulvar melanoma (VM).Materials & methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study included 198 women with VM treated in eight cancer centres in the Netherlands and UK between 1990 and 2017. Clinicopathological features, treatment, recurrence, and survival data were collected. Overall and recurrence-free survival was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic parameters were identified with multivariable Cox regression analysis.Results. The majority of patients (75.8%) had localized disease at diagnosis. VM was significantly associated with high-riskclinicopathological features, including age, tumour thickness, ulceration, positive resection margins and involved lymph nodes. Overall survival was 48% (95% CI 40-56%) and 31% (95% CI 23-39%) after 2 and 5 years respectively and did not improve in patients diagnosed after 2010 compared to patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2009. Recurrence occurred in 66.7% of patients, of which two-third was non-local. In multivariable analysis, age and tumour size were independent prognostic factors for worse survival. Prognostic factors for recurrence were tumour size and tumour type. Only the minority of patients were treated with immuno-or targeted therapy.Conclusion. Our results show that even clinically early-stage VM is an aggressive disease associated with poor clinical outcome due to distant metastases. Further investigation into the genomic landscape and the immune microenvironment in VM may pave the way to novel therapies to improve clinical outcomes in these aggressive tumours. Clinical trials with immunotherapy or targeted therapy in patients with high-risk, advanced or metastatic disease are highly needed. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Objectives Presumably, changes in fetal circulation contribute to the delay in maturation of the cortex in fetuses with congenital heart defect (CHD). The aim of the current study is to analyze fetal brain development based on hemodynamic differences, using novel brain-age prediction software. Methods We have performed detailed neurosonography, including acquiring 3D volumes, prospectively in cases with isolated CHD from 20 weeks onwards. An algorithm that assesses the degree of fetal brain-age automatically was used to compare CHD cases to controls. We stratified CHD cases according to flow and oxygenation profiles by lesion physiology and performed subgroup analyses. Results A total of 616 ultrasound volumes of 162 CHD cases and 75 controls were analyzed. Significant differences in maturation of the cortex were observed in cases with normal blood flow toward the brain (−3.8 days, 95%CI [−5.5; −2.0], P = Conclusion The current study shows significant delay in brain-age in TGA and Fallot cases as compared to control cases. However, the small differences found in this study questions the clinical relevance.

IntroductionCoeliac disease (CD) occurs in 1% of the population, develops early in life and is severely underdiagnosed. Undiagnosed and untreated disease is associated with short-term and long-term complications. The current healthcare approach is unable to solve the underdiagnosis of CD and timely diagnosis and treatment is only achieved by active case finding. Aim: to perform a case finding project to detect CD children who visit the Youth Health Care Centres (YHCCs) in a well-described region in the Netherlands to evaluate whether it is feasible, cost-effective and well accepted by the population.Methods/analysisProspective intervention cohort study. Parents of all children aged 12 months and 4 years attending the YHCCs for a regular visit are asked whether their child has one or more CD-related symptoms from a standardised list. If so, they will be invited to participate in the case finding study. After informed consent, a point of care test (POCT) to assess CD-specific antibodies against tissue transglutaminase (TG2A) is performed onsite the YHCCs. If the POCT is positive, CD is highly suspected and the child will be referred to hospital for definitive diagnosis according to the Guideline Coeliac Disease of the European Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition guideline.Main outcomesIncidence rate of new CD diagnoses in the study region in comparison to the one in the same age diagnosed by standard of care in the rest of the Netherlands.Feasibility and cost-effectiveness of active CD case finding at the YHCCs. All costs of active case finding, diagnostics and treatment of CD and the potential short-term and long-term consequences of the disease will be calculated for the setting with and without case finding.Ethical acceptability: by questionnaires on parental and healthcare professionals’ satisfaction.A statistical analysis plan was prepared and is published on the GLUTENSCREEN website (Statistical-Analysis-Plan-11-5-2021_def.pdf (glutenscreen.nl) and added as annex 1).Ethics and disseminationThe Medical Ethics Committee Leiden approved this study. If we prove that case finding at the YHCC is feasible, cost-effective and well accepted by the population, implementation is recommended.Trial registration numberNL63291.058.17.

We study the effect of delaying treatment in the presence of (unobserved) heterogeneity. In a homogeneous population and assuming a proportional treatment effect, a treatment delay period will result in notably lower cumulative recovery percentages. We show in theoretical scenarios using frailty models that if the population is heterogeneous, the effect of a delay period is much smaller. This can be explained by the selection process that is induced by the frailty. Patient groups that start treatment later have already undergone more selection. The marginal hazard ratio for the treatment will act differently in such a more homogeneous patient group. We further discuss modeling approaches for estimating the effect of treatment delay in the presence of heterogeneity, and compare their performance in a simulation study. The conventional Cox model that fails to account for heterogeneity overestimates the effect of treatment delay. Including interaction terms between treatment and starting time of treatment or between treatment and follow up time gave no improvement. Estimating a frailty term can improve the estimation, but is sensitive to misspecification of the frailty distribution. Therefore, multiple frailty distributions should be used and the results should be compared using the Akaike Information Criterion. Non‐parametric estimation of the cumulative recovery percentages can be considered if the dataset contains sufficient long term follow up for each of the delay strategies. The methods are demonstrated on a motivating application evaluating the effect of delaying the start of treatment with assisted reproductive techniques on time‐to‐pregnancy in couples with unexplained subfertility.

Inleiding De onderzoekers gingen na of een poging tot staken van preventieve cardiovasculaire medicatie bij laagrisicopatienten veilig en (kosten)effectief is. Methode Aan deze clustergerandomiseerde, gecontroleerde, non-inferiority trial deden 46 huisartsenpraktijken mee. Patienten waren veertig tot zeventig jaar oud, gebruikten een antihypertensivum en/of lipideverlagende medicatie, hadden geen hart- en vaatziekten (HVZ) in de voorgeschiedenis en hadden toen ze met medicatie begonnen een laag tienjaars-HVZ-risico. De interventie betrof het aanbieden van een stoppoging door de huisarts. Uitkomstmaat was het verschil in gemiddelde stijging van het tienjaars-HVZ-risico na twee jaar tussen de interventie- en controlegroep. De non-inferiority marge was 2,5 procentpunt. De onderzoekers hebben een multilevel lineaire regressie gebruikt, met multipele imputatie voor ontbrekende waarden. Resultaten De gemiddelde leeftijd van de 1067 deelnemers was 55 jaar, 72% was vrouw en het gemiddelde tienjaars-HVZ-risico was 5%. Van de 492 deelnemers in de interventiegroep deden 319 (65%) een stoppoging; 135 deelnemers (27%) gebruikten na twee jaar nog steeds geen medicatie. Het tienjaars-HVZ-risico steeg met 2,0 procentpunt in de interventiegroep versus 1,9 procentpunt in de controlegroep, binnen de non-inferiority marge. Er was geen verschil in kwaliteit van leven of in zorgkosten. Conclusie Het staken van preventieve cardiovasculaire medicatie bij laagrisicopatienten is op korte termijn veilig, maar verbetert de kwaliteit van leven niet en vermindert de zorgkosten evenmin.

Pathogen inactivation of platelet concentrates reduces the risk for blood-borne infections. However, its effect on platelet function and hemostatic efficacy of transfusion is unclear. We conducted a randomized noninferiority trial comparing the efficacy of pathogen-inactivated platelets using riboflavin and UV B illumination technology (intervention) compared with standard plasma-stored platelets (control) for the prevention of bleeding in patients with hematologic malignancies and thrombocytopenia. The primary outcome parameter was the proportion of transfusion-treatment periods in which the patient had grade 2 or higher bleeding, as defined by World Health Organization criteria. Between November 2010 and April 2016, 469 unique patients were randomized to 567 transfusion-treatment periods (283 in the control arm, 284 in the intervention arm). There was a 3% absolute difference in grade 2 or higher bleeding in the intention-to-treat analysis: 51% of the transfusion-treatment periods in the control arm and 54% in the intervention arm (95% confidence interval [CI], -6 to 11; P=.012 for noninferiority). However, in the per-protocol analysis, the difference in grade 2 or higher bleeding was 8%: 44% in the control arm and 52% in the intervention arm (95% CI22 to 18; P=.19 for noninferiority). Transfusion increment parameters were similar to 50% lower in the intervention arm. There was no difference in the proportion of patients developing HLA class I alloantibodies. In conclusion, the noninferiority criterion for pathogen-inactivated platelets was met in the intention-to-treat analysis. This finding was not demonstrated in the per-protocol analysis. This trial was registered at The Netherlands National Trial Registry as # NTR2106 and at www. clinicaltrials. gov as # NCT02783313.

Several studies have shown the relationship between symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), somatic symptoms, and the mediating effect of depression and anxiety. The following study was conducted to investigate the relationship between PTSD symptoms and somatic complaints through underlying symptoms of depression and anxiety. The participants of the study were 2,799 veterans who were examined after a 6-month deployment. They were assessed using the PTSD Checklist (PCL-5) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ) for depression, anxiety, and somatic complaints. To check the indirect effect of PTSD on somatic complaints through depression and anxiety, mediation model 4 (parallel mediation) of the SPSS PROCESS macro was used. There was a significant total indirect effect of PTSD through depression and anxiety on somatic complaints, b = 0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.12, 0.16], from which an indirect effect of PTSD on somatic complaints through depression was b = 0.08, 95% CI [0.06, 0.10], and through anxiety it equaled b = 0.06, 95% CI [0.04, 0.07]. The ratio of indirect to total effect was 0.66, 95% CI [0.59, 0.75]. The present study helps us to understand the role of depression and anxiety symptoms when the symptoms of PTSD and somatic complaints are present. These new findings may have implications for the management as well as treatment of PTSD because they recognize the importance of symptoms of anxiety and depression when somatic complaints are present.

Introduction: Congenital heart defects are associated with neurodevelopmental delay. It is hypothesized that fetuses affected by congenital heart defect have altered cerebral oxygen perfusion and are therefore prone to delay in cortical maturation. The aim of this study was to determine the difference in fetal brain age between consecutive congenital heart defect cases and controls in the second and third trimester using ultrasound.Material and methods: Since 2014, we have included 90 isolated severe congenital heart defect cases in the Heart And Neurodevelopment (HAND)-study. Every 4 weeks, detailed neurosonography was performed in these fetuses, including the recording of a 3D volume of the fetal brain, from 20 weeks onwards. In all, 75 healthy fetuses underwent the same protocol to serve as a control group. The volumes were analyzed by automated age prediction software which determines gestational age by the assessment of cortical maturation.Results: In total, 477 volumes were analyzed using the age prediction software (199 volumes of 90 congenital heart defect cases; 278 volumes of 75 controls). Of these, 16 (3.2%) volume recordings were excluded because of imaging quality. The age distribution was 19-33 weeks. Mixed model analysis showed that the age predicted by brain maturation was 3 days delayed compared with the control group (P = .002).Conclusions: This study shows that fetuses with isolated cases of congenital heart defects show some delay in cortical maturation as compared with healthy control cases. The clinical relevance of this small difference is debatable. This finding was consistent throughout pregnancy and did not progress during the third trimester.Keywords: congenital heart defects; fetus; malformations of cortical development; neurodevelopmental outcome; ultrasonography.

ObjectiveTo study neo-aortic growth and the evolution of neo-aortic valve regurgitation (AR) in patients with transposition of the great arteries (TGA) after arterial switch operation (ASO) from newborn to adulthood and to identify patients at risk.MethodsNeo-aortic dimensions (annulus/root/sinotubular junction) and neo-aortic valve regurgitation were assessed serially in 345 patients with TGA who underwent ASO between 1977 and 2015. Linear mixed-effect models were used to assess increase of neo-aortic dimensions over time and to identify risk factors for dilatation. Risk factor analysis for AR by using time-dependent Cox regression models.ResultsAfter a rapid increase in the first year after ASO and proportional growth in childhood, neo-aortic dimensions continue to increase in adulthood without stabilisation. Annual diameter increase in adulthood was 0.39±0.06, 0.63±0.09 and 0.54±0.11 mm for, respectively, neo-aortic annulus, root and sinotubular junction, all significantly exceeding normal growth. AR continues to develop over time: freedom from AR ≥moderate during the first 25 years post-ASO was 69%. Risk factors for root dilatation were complex TGA anatomy (TGA-ventricular septal defect (VSD), double outlet right ventricle with subpulmonary VSD) and male gender. Risk factors for AR ≥moderate were: complex TGA anatomy and neo-aortic growth. Per millimetre increase in aortic root dimension, there was a 9% increase in the hazard of AR ≥moderate. Bicuspid pulmonary valve did not relate to the presence of root dilatation or AR.ConclusionAfter ASO, neo-aortic dilatation proceeds beyond childhood and is associated with an increase in AR incidence over time. Careful follow-up of the neo-aortic valve and root function is mandatory, especially in males and in patients with complex TGA anatomy.

Aim: To test whether stabilising very preterm infants while performing physiological-based cord clamping (PBCC) is at least as effective as the standard approach of time-based delayed cord clamping (DCC).Methods: A randomised controlled non-inferiority study was performed in two centres from May until November 2018, including preterm infants born below 32 weeks of gestational age. Infants were allocated to PBCC or standard DCC. Infants receiving PBCC were stabilised on a purpose-built resuscitation table with an intact umbilical cord. The cord was clamped when the infant had regular spontaneous breathing, heart rate >= 100 bpm and SpO(2) 90% while using FiO(2) 0.40. In infants receiving DCC, the cord was clamped at 30 60 seconds after birth before they were transferred to the standard resuscitation table for further treatment and stabilisation. Primary outcome was time to reach respiratory stability.Results: Thirty-seven infants (mean gestational age 29+0 weeks) were included. Mean cord clamping time was 5:49 +/- 2:37 min in the PBCC (n = 20) and 1:02 +/- 0:30 min in the DCC group (n = 17). Infants receiving PBCC needed less time to reach respiratory stability (PBCC 5:54 +/- 2:27 min; DCC 7:07 +/- 2:54 min; mean difference corrected for gestational age 1:19 min, 95 degrees 6 CI [3:04 0:27]), showing non-inferiority with the pre-defined limit of 1:15 min. No significant differences between the groups were found for maternal blood loss, postpartum haemorrhage, infant temperature at admission or short-term neonatal outcomes.Conclusion: Stabilisation of very preterm infants with physiological-based cord clamping is at least as effective as with standard DCC.

Objectives: Fear of falling (FoF) is common after hip fracture and can impede functional recovery because of activity restriction. The Fear of falling InTervention in HIP fracture geriatric rehabilitation (FIT-HIP intervention) was designed to target FoF and consequently to improve mobility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the FIT-HIP intervention in patients with FoF in geriatric rehabilitation (GR) after hip fracture.Design, setting, and participants: This cluster-randomized controlled trial was performed in 11 post-acute GR units in the Netherlands (2016-2017). Six clusters were assigned to the intervention group, 5 to the usual care group. We included 78 patients with hip fracture and FoF (aged ≥65 years; 39 per group).Intervention(s): The FIT-HIP intervention is a multicomponent cognitive behavioral intervention conducted by physiotherapists, embedded in usual care in GR. The FIT-HIP intervention was compared to usual care in GR.Measurements: FoF was assessed with the Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I) and mobility, with the Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA). Data were collected at baseline, discharge, and 3 and 6 months postdischarge from GR. Primary endpoints were change scores at discharge. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the treatment effect.Results: No significant between-group differences were observed for primary outcome measures. With the usual care group as reference, the FES-I estimated difference between mean change scores was 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) -1.0, 7.5, P = .13] at discharge from GR; -4.1 (95% CI -11.8, 3.6, P = .29) after 3 months; and -2.8 (95% CI -10.0, 4.4, P = .44) after 6 months. POMA estimated difference was -0.3 (95% CI -6.5, 5.8, P = .90).Conclusion/implications: The FIT-HIP intervention was not effective in reducing FoF. Possibly FoF (shortly) after hip fracture can to some extent be appropriate. This may imply the study was not able to accurately identify and accordingly treat FoF that is maladaptive (reflective of disproportionate anxiety).

PATH study group., In patients with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP), intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is recommended to be periodically reduced to assess the need for ongoing therapy. However, little is known about the effectiveness of restabilization with IVIG in patients who worsen after IVIG withdrawal. In the Polyneuropathy And Treatment with Hizentra (PATH) study, the pre‐randomization period included sudden stopping of IVIG followed by 12 weeks of observation. Those deteriorating were then restabilized with IVIG. Of 245 subjects who stopped IVIG, 28 did not show signs of clinical deterioration within 12 weeks. Two hundred and seven received IVIG restabilization with an induction dose of 2 g/kg bodyweight (bw) IgPro10 (Privigen, CSL Behring, King of Prussia, Pennsylvania) and maintenance doses of 1 g/kg bw every 3 weeks for up to 13 weeks. Signs of clinical improvement were seen in almost all (n = 188; 91%) subjects. During IVIG restabilization, 35 subjects either did not show CIDP stability (n = 21, analyzed as n = 22 as an additional subject was randomized in error) or withdrew for other reasons (n = 14). Of the 22 subjects who did not achieve clinical stability, follow‐up information in 16 subjects after an additional 4 weeks was obtained. Nine subjects were reported to have improved, leaving a maximum of 27 subjects (13%) who either showed no signs of clinical improvement during the restabilization phase and 4 weeks post‐study or withdrew for other reasons. In conclusion, sudden IVIG withdrawal was effective in detecting ongoing immunoglobulin G dependency with a small risk for subjects not returning to their baseline 17 weeks after withdrawal., Editorial support was provided by Meridian HealthComms Ltd, funded by CSL Behring.

ObjectivesSLE and/or antiphospholipid syndrome (SLE/APS) are complex and rare systemic autoimmune diseases that predominantly affect women of childbearing age. Women with SLE/APS are at high risk of developing complications during pregnancy. Therefore, clinical practice guidelines recommend that patients with SLE/APS should receive multidisciplinary counselling before getting pregnant. We investigated the clinical effectiveness of implementing a multidisciplinary clinical pathway including prepregnancy counselling of patients with SLE/APS.MethodsA clinical pathway with specific evaluation and prepregnancy counselling for patients with SLE/APS was developed and implemented in a tertiary, academic hospital setting. Patients were prospectively managed within the clinical pathway from 2014 onwards and compared with a retrospective cohort of patients that was not managed in a clinical pathway. Primary outcome was a combined outcome of disease flares for SLE and thromboembolic events for APS. Secondary outcomes were maternal and fetal pregnancy complications.ResultsSeventy-eight patients with 112 pregnancies were included in this study. The primary combined outcome was significantly lower in the pathway cohort (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.20 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.75)) which was predominantly determined by a fivefold risk reduction of SLE flares (aOR 0.22 (95% CI 0.04 to 1.09)). Maternal and fetal pregnancy complications were not different between the cohorts (respectively, aOR 0.91 (95% CI 0.38 to 2.17) and aOR 1.26 (95% CI 0.55 to 2.88)).ConclusionsThe outcomes of this study suggest that patients with SLE/APS with a pregnancy wish benefit from a multidisciplinary clinical pathway including prepregnancy counselling.

To the Editor In our recently published article,1 neoaortic dimensions and neoaortic valve function derived from echocardiographic imaging were longitudinally assessed from birth until adulthood in 345 patients after arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries. From these data, neoaortic root dimensions were independently associated with the development of at least moderate neoaortic valve regurgitation (AR≥moderate) by time-dependent Cox-regression (TD-Cox) analysis. With this analysis, no significant association could be established for the development of AR≥mild, and no relationship between neoaortic annulus dimensions and AR of any severity could be determined. Recent developments in biostatistics allow …

Aim To evaluate the direct effect of repetitive tactile stimulation on breathing effort of preterm infants at birth. Methods This randomized controlled trial compared the effect of repetitive stimulation on respiratory effort during the first 4 min after birth with standard stimulation based on clinical indication in preterm infants with a gestational age of 27–32 weeks. All details of the stimulation performed were noted. The main study parameter measured was respiratory minute volume, other study parameters assessed measures of respiratory effort; tidal volumes, rate of rise to maximum tidal volumes, percentage of recruitment breaths, and oxygenation of the infant. Results There was no significant difference in respiratory minute volume in the repetitive stimulation group when compared to the standard group. Oxygen saturation was significantly higher (87.6 ± 3.3% vs 81.7 ± 8.7%, p = .01) while the amount of FiO2 given during transport to the NICU was lower (28.2 (22.8–35.0)% vs 33.6 (29.4–44.1)%, p = .04). There was no significant difference in administration of positive pressure ventilation (52% vs 78%, p = .13), or the duration of ventilation (median (IQR) time 8 (0–118)s vs 35 (13–131)s, p = .23). Caregivers decided less often to administer caffeine in the delivery room to stimulate breathing in the repetitive stimulation group (10% vs 39%, p = .036). Conclusion Although the increase in respiratory effort during repetitive stimulation did not reach significance, oxygenation significantly improved with a lower level of FiO2 at transport to the NICU. Repetitive tactile stimulation could be of added value to improve breathing effort at birth.

Background Pelvic endometriosis is often mentioned as one of the variables influencing surgical outcomes of laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH). However, its additional surgical risks have not been well established. The aim of this study was to analyze to what extent concomitant endometriosis influences surgical outcomes of LH and to determine if it should be considered as case-mix variable. Results A total of 2655 LH’s were analyzed, of which 397 (15.0%) with concomitant endometriosis. For blood loss and operative time, no measurable association was found for stages I (n = 106) and II (n = 103) endometriosis compared to LH without endometriosis. LH with stages III (n = 93) and IV (n = 95) endometriosis were associated with more intra-operative blood loss (p = p = p = .62). Conclusions The findings of our study have provided numeric support for the influence of concomitant endometriosis on surgical outcomes of LH, without bowel or bladder dissection. Only stages III and IV were associated with a longer operative time and more blood loss and should thus be considered as case-mix variables in future quality measurement tools.

Mika Saarela työryhmän jäsenenä. Background Approximately two-thirds of patients with chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) need long-term intravenous immunoglobulin. Subcutaneous immunoglobulin (SCIg) is an alternative option for immunoglobulin delivery, but has not previously been investigated in a large trial of CIDP. The PATH study compared relapse rates in patients given SCIg versus placebo. Methods Between March 12, 2012, and Sept 20, 2016, we studied patients from 69 neuromuscular centres in North America, Europe, Israel, Australia, and Japan. Adults with definite or probable CIDP who responded to intravenous immunoglobulin treatment were eligible. We randomly allocated participants to 0.2 g/kg or 0.4 g/kg of a 20% SCIg solution (IgPro20) weekly versus placebo (2% human albumin solution) for maintenance treatment for 24 weeks. We did randomisation in a 1: 1:1 ratio with an interactive voice and web response system with a block size of six, stratified by region (Japan or non-Japan). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with a CIDP relapse or who were withdrawn for any other reason during 24 weeks of treatment. Patients, caregivers, and study personnel, including those assessing outcomes, were masked to treatment assignment. Analyses were done in the intention-to-treat and per-protocol sets. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials. gov, number NCT01545076. Findings In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly allocated 172 patients: 57 (33%) to the placebo group, 57 (33%) to the low-dose group, and 58 (34%) to the high-dose group. In the intention-to-treat set, 36 (63% [95% CI 50-74]) patients on placebo, 22 (39% [27-52]) on low-dose SCIg, and 19 (33% [22-46]) on high-dose SCIg had a relapse or were withdrawn from the study for other reasons (p=0.0007). Absolute risk reductions were 25% (95% CI 6-41) for low-dose versus placebo (p=0.007), 30% (12-46) for high-dose versus placebo (p=0.001), and 6% (-11 to 23) for high-dose versus low-dose (p=0.32). Causally related adverse events occurred in 47 (27%) patients (ten [18%] in the placebo group, 17 [30%] in the low-dose group, and 20 [34%] in the high-dose group). Six (3%) patients had 11 serious adverse events: one (2%) patient in the placebo group, three (5%) in the low-dose group, and two (3%) in the high-dose group; only one (an acute allergic skin reaction in the low-dose group) was assessed to be causally related. Interpretation This study, which is to our knowledge, the largest trial of CIDP to date and the first to study two administrations of immunoglobulins and two doses, showed that both doses of SCIg IgPro20 were efficacious and well tolerated, suggesting that SCIg can be used as a maintenance treatment for CIDP.

We thank Ravi Uniyal and colleagues for their comments on our results from the PATH trial1 on subcutaneous immunoglobulin (SCIg) for maintenance treatment in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP). They express concern about the relapse rates in the treatment groups and hypothesise the cause being the pharmacokinetics of SCIg.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive cholestatic liver disease of unknown cause, but strongly associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Potential risk factors triggering PSC have never been studied on a population level. The aim of this study was to evaluate smoking, appendectomy, family history and geographical distribution in a population-based cohort of PSC patients, as compared to IBD control patients and healthy controls (HC).METHODS: For this case-control study 343 PSC patients, 370 IBD controls and 232 HC's living in a geographically defined area in the Netherlands filled-out a questionnaire concerning smoking, appendectomy and family history of IBD and autoimmune liver diseases.RESULTS: Smoking was associated with a lower risk of developing PSC in PSC-ulcerative colitis (UC) patients (adjusted OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.12-0.34; P < 0.001). Comparable results were found for PSC-Crohn's disease (CD) patients (16% former smokers) compared to CD patients (55% former smokers) (adjusted OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.08-0.39; P < 0.001). Frequency of appendectomy did not differ between PSC and HC, but PSC-UC patients had undergone appendectomy more often than UC patients (13% vs. 6%) (adjusted OR 2.51; 95%CI 1.04-6.07; P = 0.041). We found no association between family history of IBD or autoimmune liver disease and risk of PSC. Degree of urbanization was not associated with PSC incidence.CONCLUSION: In this large population-based case-control study we confirm that smoking is associated with a lower risk of developing PSC, independent of its protective effect for developing UC. Appendectomy is not associated with the risk of developing PSC.

Background: Persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) is associated with severe morbidity and mortality. Twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) is suggested to increase the risk of PPHN. Objectives: To describe the incidence of PPHN in TTTS twins and to identify risk factors in TTTS twins for the development of severe PPHN. Methods: Cases with severe PPHN were extracted from our monochorionic twin database (2002-2016). Severe PPHN was defined as severe hypoxaemia requiring mechanical ventilation and inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) treatment, confirmed by strict echocardiographic criteria. A case-control comparison within TTTS survivors was conducted to identify risk factors for PPHN. Results: The incidence of PPHN in TTTS twins was 4% (24/598, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-5.9%) and 0.4% (2/493, 95% CI 0.1-1.5%) in uncomplicated monochorionic twins (odds ratio [OR] 10.3, 95% CI 2.4-43.9; p = 0.002). Two risk factors were independently associated with PPHN: severe prematurity (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.0-11.4) and recipient status (OR 3.9, 95% CI 1.4-11.0). In TTTS recipients, another risk factor for PPHN is anaemia at birth (OR 7.2, 95% CI 1.8-29.6). Conclusion: Clinicians caring for neonates with TTTS should be aware of the 10-fold increased risk of PPHN compared to uncomplicated monochorionic twins. PPHN occurs more often in case of premature delivery and in recipient twins, particularly in the presence of anaemia at birth. As the development of severe PPHN is difficult to predict, we advise that all TTTS twins should be delivered in a tertiary care centre with iNO treatment options.

Background The use of cardiovascular medication for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is potentially inappropriate when potential risks outweigh the potential benefits. It is unknown whether deprescribing preventive cardiovascular medication in patients without a strict indication for such medication is safe and cost-effective in general practice. Methods In this pragmatic cluster randomised controlled non-inferiority trial, we recruited 46 general practices in the Netherlands. Patients aged 40–70 years who were using antihypertensive and/or lipid-lowering drugs without CVD and with low risk of future CVD were followed for 2 years. The intervention was an attempt to deprescribe preventive cardiovascular medication. The primary outcome was the difference in the increase in predicted (10-year) CVD risk in the per-protocol (PP) population with a non-inferiority margin of 2.5 percentage points. An economic evaluation was performed in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. We used multilevel (generalised) linear regression with multiple imputation of missing data. Results Of 1067 participants recruited between 7 November 2012 and 18 February 2014, 72% were female. Overall, their mean age was 55 years and their mean predicted CVD risk at baseline was 5%. Of 492 participants in the ITT intervention group, 319 (65%) quit the medication (PP intervention group); 135 (27%) of those participants were still not taking medication after 2 years. The predicted CVD risk increased by 2.0 percentage points in the PP intervention group compared to 1.9 percentage points in the usual care group. The difference of 0.1 (95% CI -0.3 to 0.6) fell within the non-inferiority margin. After 2 years, compared to the usual care group, for the PP intervention group, systolic blood pressure was 6 mmHg higher, diastolic blood pressure was 4 mmHg higher and total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels were both 7 mg/dl higher (all P