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2. Translating Earth system boundaries for cities and businesses

Author

Bai, Xuemei, Hasan, Syezlin, Andersen, Lauren Seaby, Bjørn, Anders, Kilkiş, Şiir, Ospina, Daniel, Liu, Jianguo, Cornell, Sarah E., Sabag Muñoz, Oscar, de Bremond, Ariane, Crona, Beatrice, DeClerck, Fabrice, Gupta, Joyeeta, Hoff, Holger, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Whiteman, Gail, Broadgate, Wendy, Lade, Steven J., Rocha, Juan, Rockström, Johan, Stewart-Koster, Ben, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zimm, Caroline

Published
2024
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3. Österreichischer Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014

Author

Kromp-Kolb, Helga, Steiniger, Karl, and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

Subjects
Austira, climate change, impacts, mitigation measures, adaption, assessment report, APCC, Österreich, Klimawandel, Auswirkungen, Minderung, Anpassung, Sachstandsbericht, APCC, bic Book Industry Communication::R Earth sciences, geography, environment, planning
Abstract

The AAR14 is the first Assessment Report on climate Change in Austria assessing the Impact of climate change and the Needs and possibilities of mitigation and Adaptation. This three-volume Report, developed through a multiple peer-Review process including stakeholder participation, presents a coherent assessment of scientific knowledge about climate and makes it accessible for both decision-makers and the General public. Approximately 240 scientists from 50 institutions have participated in this national Assessment Report, Der AAR14 ist der erste Sachstandsbericht zum Klimawandel in Österreich, zu dessen Auswirkungen, und den Erfordernissen und Möglichkeiten der Minderung und Anpassung. Der drei-bändige Bericht, der einen mehrstufigen Peer-Review-Prozess inklusive Stakeholder-Partizipation durchlaufen hat, legt den wissenschaftlich gesicherten Kenntnisstand für Österreich kohärent dar und macht ihn Entscheidungstragenden und der interessierten Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. An dem nationalen Sachstandbericht haben rund 240 WissenschafterInnen aus 50 Institutionen mitgewirkt.Der Österreichische Sachstandsbericht Klimawandel 2014 (AAR14) stellt einen Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-ähnlichen Bericht dar. Er besteht aus drei Bänden, in denen das bestehende Wissen zum Klimawandel in Österreich, zu dessen Auswirkungen, und den Erfordernissen und Möglichkeiten der Minderung und Anpassung zusammengefasst wird. Der Bericht verfolgt das Ziel, den wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand für Österreich kohärent und vollständig darzulegen und diesen auch in Form von politikrelevanten Analysen an die Österreichische Bundesregierung und politische Entscheidungsgremien auf allen Ebenen zu übermitteln, bzw. um dadurch Entscheidungsgrundlagen auch für den privaten Sektor und einen Wissensfundus für akademische Institutionen bereitzustellen. Ähnlich den IPCC-Sachstandsberichten liegt dem AAR14 das Prinzip zugrunde, entscheidungsrelevant zu sein, aber keinen empfehlenden Charakter zu haben.

Published
2014
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4. Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

Author

Stewart-Koster, Ben, Bunn, Stuart E., Green, Pamela, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Andersen, Lauren S., Armstrong McKay, David I., Bai, Xuemei, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie L., Gordon, Christopher, Gupta, Joyeeta, Hasan, Syezlin, Jacobson, Lisa, Lade, Steven J., Liverman, Diana, Loriani, Sina, Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Qin, Dahe, Rammelt, Crelis, Rocha, Juan C., Rockström, Johan, Verburg, Peter H., and Zimm, Caroline

Published
2024
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5. A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations

Author

Gupta, Joyeeta, Bai, Xuemei, Liverman, Diana M, Rockström, Johan, Qin, Dahe, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Rocha, Juan C, Jacobson, Lisa, Abrams, Jesse F, Andersen, Lauren S, Armstrong McKay, David I, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E, Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie L, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M, Loriani, Sina, Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena, Bjørn, Anders, Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy J, Bulkeley, Harriet, Crona, Beatrice, Green, Pamela A, Hoff, Holger, Huang, Lei, Hurlbert, Margot, Inoue, Cristina Y A, Kılkış, Şiir, Lade, Steven J, Liu, Jianguo, Nadeem, Imran, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Otto, Ilona M, Pedde, Simona, Pereira, Laura, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, Tàbara, J David, de Vries, Wim, Whiteman, Gail, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, Zhang, Xin, Fezzigna, Paola, and Gentile, Giuliana

Published
2024
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6. Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Author

Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J., Abrams, Jesse F., Andersen, Lauren S., Armstrong McKay, David I., Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E., Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M., Loriani, Sina, Liverman, Diana M., Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena M., Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Green, Pamela A., Huang, Lei, Jacobson, Lisa, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Pedde, Simona, Rocha, Juan, Scheffer, Marten, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, de Vries, Wim, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Chi, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, and Zhang, Xin

Published
2023
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7. Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality

Author

Rammelt, Crelis F., Gupta, Joyeeta, Liverman, Diana, Scholtens, Joeri, Ciobanu, Daniel, Abrams, Jesse F., Bai, Xuemei, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hurlbert, Margot, Inoue, Cristina Y. A., Jacobson, Lisa, Lade, Steven J., Lenton, Timothy M., McKay, David I. Armstrong, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Okereke, Chukwumerije, Otto, Ilona M., Pereira, Laura M., Prodani, Klaudia, Rockström, Johan, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Verburg, Peter H., and Zimm, Caroline

Published
2023
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8. Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

Author

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Zimm, Caroline, Busch, Sebastian, Kriegler, Elmar, Leininger, Julia, Messner, Dirk, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Rockstrom, Johan, Riahi, Keywan, Sperling, Frank, Bosetti, Valentina, Cornell, Sarah, Gaffney, Owen, Lucas, Paul L., Popp, Alexander, Ruhe, Constantin, von Schiller, Armin, Schmidt, Jörn O., and Soergel, Bjoern

Published
2022
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11. The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

Author

Rockström, Johan, Kotzé, Louis, Milutinović, Svetlana, Biermann, Frank, Brovkin, Victor, Donges, Jonathan, Ebbesson, Jonas, French, Duncan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Kim, Rakhyun, Lenton, Timothy, Lenzi, Dominic, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Neumann, Barbara, Schuppert, Fabian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Bosselmann, Klaus, Folke, Carl, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schlosberg, David, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Rockström, Johan, Kotzé, Louis, Milutinović, Svetlana, Biermann, Frank, Brovkin, Victor, Donges, Jonathan, Ebbesson, Jonas, French, Duncan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Kim, Rakhyun, Lenton, Timothy, Lenzi, Dominic, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Neumann, Barbara, Schuppert, Fabian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Bosselmann, Klaus, Folke, Carl, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schlosberg, David, Richardson, Katherine, and Steffen, Will

Abstract

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework-the planetary commons-which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Published
2024

12. Translating Earth system boundaries for cities and businesses

Author

Environmental Sciences, Bai, Xuemei, Hasan, Syezlin, Andersen, Lauren Seaby, Bjørn, Anders, Kilkiş, Şiir, Ospina, Daniel, Liu, Jianguo, Cornell, Sarah E., Sabag Muñoz, Oscar, de Bremond, Ariane, Crona, Beatrice, DeClerck, Fabrice, Gupta, Joyeeta, Hoff, Holger, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Whiteman, Gail, Broadgate, Wendy, Lade, Steven J., Rocha, Juan, Rockström, Johan, Stewart-Koster, Ben, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zimm, Caroline, Environmental Sciences, Bai, Xuemei, Hasan, Syezlin, Andersen, Lauren Seaby, Bjørn, Anders, Kilkiş, Şiir, Ospina, Daniel, Liu, Jianguo, Cornell, Sarah E., Sabag Muñoz, Oscar, de Bremond, Ariane, Crona, Beatrice, DeClerck, Fabrice, Gupta, Joyeeta, Hoff, Holger, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Whiteman, Gail, Broadgate, Wendy, Lade, Steven J., Rocha, Juan, Rockström, Johan, Stewart-Koster, Ben, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zimm, Caroline

Published
2024

13. The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

Author

Global Sustainability Governance, Environmental Governance, Rockström, Johan, Kotzé, Louis, Milutinović, Svetlana, Biermann, Frank, Brovkin, Victor, Donges, Jonathan, Ebbesson, Jonas, French, Duncan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Kim, Rakhyun, Lenton, Timothy, Lenzi, Dominic, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Neumann, Barbara, Schuppert, Fabian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Bosselmann, Klaus, Folke, Carl, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schlosberg, David, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Global Sustainability Governance, Environmental Governance, Rockström, Johan, Kotzé, Louis, Milutinović, Svetlana, Biermann, Frank, Brovkin, Victor, Donges, Jonathan, Ebbesson, Jonas, French, Duncan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Kim, Rakhyun, Lenton, Timothy, Lenzi, Dominic, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Neumann, Barbara, Schuppert, Fabian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Bosselmann, Klaus, Folke, Carl, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schlosberg, David, Richardson, Katherine, and Steffen, Will

Published
2024

14. De planetære fælleder: et nyt paradigme for at sikre jordregulerende systemer i den antropocæne epoke

Author

Rockström, Johan, Kotzé, Louis, Milutinovic, Svetlana, Biermann, Frank, Brovkin, Victor, Donges, Jonathan F., Ebbesson, Jonas, French, Duncan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Kim, Rakhyun, Lenton, Timothy, Lenzi, Dominic, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Neumann, Barbara, Schuppert, Fabian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Bosselmann, Klaus, Folke, Carl, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schlosberg, David, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Rockström, Johan, Kotzé, Louis, Milutinovic, Svetlana, Biermann, Frank, Brovkin, Victor, Donges, Jonathan F., Ebbesson, Jonas, French, Duncan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Kim, Rakhyun, Lenton, Timothy, Lenzi, Dominic, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Neumann, Barbara, Schuppert, Fabian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Bosselmann, Klaus, Folke, Carl, Lucht, Wolfgang, Schlosberg, David, Richardson, Katherine, and Steffen, Will

Abstract

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Published
2024

16. Planning for Future Energy Resources

Author

O'Neill, Brian, Grübler, Arnulf, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obersteiner, Michael, Riahi, Keywan, Schrattenholzer, Leo, Toth, Ferenc, Wilson, Richard D., Krakowski, Robert, Swart, Rob, Moreira, Jose Roberto, Morita, Tsuneyuki, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Pitcher, Hugh, Rogner, Hans-Holger, Hoffert, Martin I., Caldeira, Ken, Benford, Gregory, Volk, Tyler, Criswell, David R., Green, Christopher, Herzog, Howard, Jain, Atul K., Kheshgi, Haroon S., Lackner, Klaus S., Lewis, John S., Lightfoot, H. Douglas, Manheimer, Wallace, Mankins, John C., Mauel, Michael E., Perkins, L. John, Schlesinger, Michael E., and Volk, Tyler

Published
2003

17. The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

Author

Rockström, Johan, primary, Kotzé, Louis, additional, Milutinović, Svetlana, additional, Biermann, Frank, additional, Brovkin, Victor, additional, Donges, Jonathan, additional, Ebbesson, Jonas, additional, French, Duncan, additional, Gupta, Joyeeta, additional, Kim, Rakhyun, additional, Lenton, Timothy, additional, Lenzi, Dominic, additional, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, additional, Neumann, Barbara, additional, Schuppert, Fabian, additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Bosselmann, Klaus, additional, Folke, Carl, additional, Lucht, Wolfgang, additional, Schlosberg, David, additional, Richardson, Katherine, additional, and Steffen, Will, additional

Published
2024
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18. Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

Author

Stewart-Koster, Ben, primary, Bunn, Stuart E., additional, Green, Pamela, additional, Ndehedehe, Christopher, additional, Andersen, Lauren S., additional, Armstrong McKay, David I., additional, Bai, Xuemei, additional, DeClerck, Fabrice, additional, Ebi, Kristie L., additional, Gordon, Christopher, additional, Gupta, Joyeeta, additional, Hasan, Syezlin, additional, Jacobson, Lisa, additional, Lade, Steven J., additional, Liverman, Diana, additional, Loriani, Sina, additional, Mohamed, Awaz, additional, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, additional, Obura, David, additional, Qin, Dahe, additional, Rammelt, Crelis, additional, Rocha, Juan C., additional, Rockström, Johan, additional, Verburg, Peter H., additional, and Zimm, Caroline, additional

Published
2023
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20. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

Author

Rockström, Johan, Gaffney, Owen, Rogelj, Joeri, Meinshausen, Malte, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

Published
2017

21. Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III

Author

Barker, Terry, Bashmakov, Igor, Bernstein, Lenny, Bogner, Jean, Bosch, Peter, Dave, Rutu, Davidson, Ogunlade, Fisher, Brian, Grubb, Michael, Gupta, Sujata, Halsnaes, Kirsten, Heij, Bertjan, Kahn Ribeiro, Suzana, Kobayashi, Shigeki, Levine, Mark, Martino, Daniel, Masera Cerutti, Omar, Metz, Bert, Meyer, Leo, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Najam, Adil, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Rogner, Hans Holger, Roy, Joyashree, Sathaye, Jayant, Schock, Robert, Shukla, Priyaradshi, Sims, Ralph, Smith, Pete, Swart, Rob, Tirpak, Dennis, Urge-Vorsatz, Diana, and Zhou, Dadi

Subjects
Energy conservation, consumption, and utilization, Energy planning, policy and economy, Environmental sciences, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, Short term Mitigation, medium term mitigation
Abstract

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC). The following summary is organised into six sections after this introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change, - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to the corresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in square brackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used in this SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.

Published
2007

22. How can we live within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water?

Author

Stewart-Koster, Ben, primary, Bunn, Stuart, additional, Green, Pamela, additional, Ndehedehe, Christopher, additional, Andersen, Lauren, additional, McKay, David Armstrong, additional, Bai, Xuemei, additional, DeClerck, Fabrice, additional, Ebi, Kristie, additional, Gordon, Christopher, additional, Gupta, Joyeeta, additional, Hasan, Syezlin, additional, Jacobson, Lisa, additional, Lade, Steven, additional, Liverman, Diana, additional, Mohamed, Awaz, additional, Loriani, Sina, additional, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, additional, Obura, David, additional, Qin, Dahe, additional, Rammelt, Crelis, additional, Rocha, Juan, additional, Rockström, Johan, additional, Verburg, Peter, additional, and Zimm, Caroline, additional

Published
2023
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24. Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J, Abrams, Jesse F, Andersen, Lauren S, Armstrong McKay, David I, Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E, Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M, Loriani, Sina, Liverman, Diana M, Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena M, Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Green, Pamela A, Huang, Lei, Jacobson, Lisa, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Pedde, Simona, Rocha, Juan, Scheffer, Marten, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, de Vries, Wim, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Chi, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, Zhang, Xin, Environmental Sciences, Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J, Abrams, Jesse F, Andersen, Lauren S, Armstrong McKay, David I, Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E, Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M, Loriani, Sina, Liverman, Diana M, Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena M, Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Green, Pamela A, Huang, Lei, Jacobson, Lisa, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Pedde, Simona, Rocha, Juan, Scheffer, Marten, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, de Vries, Wim, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Chi, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, and Zhang, Xin

Published
2023

25. Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Author

Rockström, Johan Gupta, Joyeeta Qin, Dahe Lade, Steven J. Abrams, Jesse F. Andersen, Lauren S. Armstrong McKay, David I. Bai, Xuemei Bala, Govindasamy Bunn, Stuart E. Ciobanu, Daniel DeClerck, Fabrice Ebi, Kristie Gifford, Lauren Gordon, Christopher Hasan, Syezlin Kanie, Norichika Lenton, Timothy M. Loriani, Sina Liverman, Diana M. Mohamed, Awaz Nakicenovic, Nebojsa Obura, David Ospina, Daniel Prodani, Klaudia Rammelt, Crelis Sakschewski, Boris Scholtens, Joeri Stewart-Koster, Ben Tharammal, Thejna van Vuuren, Detlef Verburg, Peter H. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zimm, Caroline Bennett, Elena M. Bringezu, Stefan Broadgate, Wendy Green, Pamela A. Huang, Lei Jacobson, Lisa Ndehedehe, Christopher Pedde, Simona Rocha, Juan Scheffer, Marten Schulte-Uebbing, Lena de Vries, Wim Xiao, Cunde Xu, Chi Xu, Xinwu Zafra-Calvo, Noelia Zhang, Xin and Rockström, Johan Gupta, Joyeeta Qin, Dahe Lade, Steven J. Abrams, Jesse F. Andersen, Lauren S. Armstrong McKay, David I. Bai, Xuemei Bala, Govindasamy Bunn, Stuart E. Ciobanu, Daniel DeClerck, Fabrice Ebi, Kristie Gifford, Lauren Gordon, Christopher Hasan, Syezlin Kanie, Norichika Lenton, Timothy M. Loriani, Sina Liverman, Diana M. Mohamed, Awaz Nakicenovic, Nebojsa Obura, David Ospina, Daniel Prodani, Klaudia Rammelt, Crelis Sakschewski, Boris Scholtens, Joeri Stewart-Koster, Ben Tharammal, Thejna van Vuuren, Detlef Verburg, Peter H. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zimm, Caroline Bennett, Elena M. Bringezu, Stefan Broadgate, Wendy Green, Pamela A. Huang, Lei Jacobson, Lisa Ndehedehe, Christopher Pedde, Simona Rocha, Juan Scheffer, Marten Schulte-Uebbing, Lena de Vries, Wim Xiao, Cunde Xu, Chi Xu, Xinwu Zafra-Calvo, Noelia Zhang, Xin

Abstract

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1,2,3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Published
2023
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26. Corrigendum: All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 064037)

Author

Warszawski, Lila, primary, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Lenton, Timothy M, additional, Gaffney, Owen, additional, Jacob, Daniela, additional, Klingenfeld, Daniel, additional, Koide, Ryu, additional, Máñez Costa, María, additional, Messner, Dirk, additional, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, additional, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, additional, Schlosser, Peter, additional, Takeuchi, Kazuhiko, additional, van der Leeuw, Sander, additional, Whiteman, Gail, additional, and Rockström, Johan, additional

Published
2023
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27. Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality

Author

Rammelt, Crelis F., primary, Gupta, Joyeeta, additional, Liverman, Diana, additional, Scholtens, Joeri, additional, Ciobanu, Daniel, additional, Abrams, Jesse F., additional, Bai, Xuemei, additional, Gifford, Lauren, additional, Gordon, Christopher, additional, Hurlbert, Margot, additional, Inoue, Cristina Y. A., additional, Jacobson, Lisa, additional, Lade, Steven J., additional, Lenton, Timothy M., additional, McKay, David I. Armstrong, additional, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, additional, Okereke, Chukwumerije, additional, Otto, Ilona M., additional, Pereira, Laura M., additional, Prodani, Klaudia, additional, Rockström, Johan, additional, Stewart-Koster, Ben, additional, Verburg, Peter H., additional, and Zimm, Caroline, additional

Published
2022
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32. Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

Author

Environmental Sciences, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Zimm, Caroline, Busch, Sebastian, Kriegler, Elmar, Leininger, Julia, Messner, Dirk, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Rockstrom, Johan, Riahi, Keywan, Sperling, Frank, Bosetti, Valentina, Cornell, Sarah, Gaffney, Owen, Lucas, Paul L., Popp, Alexander, Ruhe, Constantin, von Schiller, Armin, Schmidt, Jörn O., Soergel, Bjoern, Environmental Sciences, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Zimm, Caroline, Busch, Sebastian, Kriegler, Elmar, Leininger, Julia, Messner, Dirk, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Rockstrom, Johan, Riahi, Keywan, Sperling, Frank, Bosetti, Valentina, Cornell, Sarah, Gaffney, Owen, Lucas, Paul L., Popp, Alexander, Ruhe, Constantin, von Schiller, Armin, Schmidt, Jörn O., and Soergel, Bjoern

Published
2022

34. Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecosystem Change : an Overview

Author

Nelson, Gerald C., Bennett, Elena, Berhe, Asmeret A., Cassman, Kenneth, DeFries, Ruth, Dietz, Thomas, Dobermann, Achim, Dobson, Andrew, Janetos, Anthony, Levy, Marc, Marco, Diana, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, O'Neill, Brian, Norgaard, Richard, Petschel-Held, Gerhard, Ojima, Dennis, Pingali, Prabhu, Watson, Robert, and Zurek, Monika

Published
2006

37. EMISSIONS SCENARIOS: A FINAL RESPONSE

Author

Grübler, Arnulf, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Alcamo, Joe, Davis, Ged, Fenhann, Joergen, Hare, Bill, Mori, Shunsuke, Pepper, Bill, Pitcher, Hugh, Riahi, Keywan, Rogner, Hans-Holger, La Rovere, Emilo Lebre, Sankovski, Alexei, Schlesinger, Michael, Shukla, R.P., Swart, Rob, Victor, Nadejda, and Jung, Tae Yong

Published
2004

38. IPCC SRES REVISITED: A RESPONSE

Author

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Grübler, Arnulf, Gaffin, Stuard, Jung, Tae Tong, Kram, Tom, Morita, Tsuneyuki, Pitcher, Hugh, Riahi, Keywan, Schlesinger, Michael, Shukla, P. R., van Vuuren, Detlef, Davis, Ged, Michaelis, Laurie, Swart, Rob, and Victor, Nadja

Published
2003

42. Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet

Author

Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Lenton, Timothy M., Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J., Abrams, Jesse F., Jacobson, Lisa, Rocha, Juan C., Zimm, Caroline, Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Bunn, Stuart E., DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie L., Gong, Peng, Gordon, Chris, Kanie, Norichika, Liverman, Diana M., Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ramanathan, Veerabhadran, Verburg, Peter H., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
equity, human development, Environmental Science(all), Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), stability, Earth system
Abstract

Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a “safe and just corridor” that meets these goals. Although “safe” and “just” Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.

Published
2021

44. The representative concentration pathways: an overview

Author

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Edmonds, Jae, Kainuma, Mikiko, Riahi, Keywan, Thomson, Allison, Hibbard, Kathy, Hurtt, George C., Kram, Tom, Krey, Volker, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Masui, Toshihiko, Meinshausen, Malte, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Smith, Steven J., and Rose, Steven K.

Published
2011
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48. What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions? A Letter

Author

Vuuren, Detlef P., Edmonds, Jae, Smith, Steven J., Calvin, Kate V., Karas, Joseph, Kainuma, Mikiko, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Riahi, Keywan, Ruijven, Bas J., Swart, Rob, and Thomson, Allison

Subjects
Climatic changes -- Research, Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects, Earth sciences
Abstract

Byline: Detlef P. Vuuren (1), Jae Edmonds (2), Steven J. Smith (2), Kate V. Calvin (2), Joseph Karas (2), Mikiko Kainuma (3), Nebojsa Nakicenovic (4,5), Keywan Riahi (4), Bas J. Ruijven (1), Rob Swart (6), Allison Thomson (2) Abstract: Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them. Author Affiliation: (1) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus, 303 3720, AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands (2) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA (3) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan (4) International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria (5) Vienna University of Technology, Gusshausstrasse 25-29/37320, 1040, Vienna, Austria (6) Wageningen University and Research Centre, Earth System Science and Climate Change Group, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands Article History: Registration Date: 05/10/2010 Received Date: 29/07/2010 Accepted Date: 01/10/2010 Online Date: 26/10/2010 Article note: Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9940-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Published
2010

49. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Author

Moss, Richard H., Edmonds, Jae A., Hibbard, Kathy A., Manning, Martin R., Rose, Steven K., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Carter, Timothy R., Emori, Seita, Kainuma, Mikiko, Kram, Tom, Meehl, Gerald A., Mitchell, John F.B., Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Steven J., Stouffer, Ronald J., Thomson, Allison M., Weyant, John P., and Wilbanks, Thomas J.

Subjects
Environmental associations -- Reports, Climatic changes -- Research, Emissions (Pollution) -- Research, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- Reports
Abstract

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community., To improve understanding of the complex interactions of the climate system, ecosystems, and human activities and conditions' the research community develops and uses scenarios. These scenarios provide plausible descriptions of [...]

Published
2010
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50. All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal

Author

Warszawski, Lila, primary, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Lenton, Timothy M, additional, Gaffney, Owen, additional, Jacob, Daniela, additional, Klingenfeld, Daniel, additional, Koide, Ryu, additional, Costa, María Máñez, additional, Messner, Dirk, additional, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, additional, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, additional, Schlosser, Peter, additional, Takeuchi, Kazuhiko, additional, Van Der Leeuw, Sander, additional, Whiteman, Gail, additional, and Rockström, Johan, additional

Published
2021
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