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The study in this paper analyzes the model of the spread of COVID-19 in Papua Province. The population is divided into five subpopulations, namely Suspected (S), Infected (I), Independent Isolation (Q1), Isolation provided by the Regional Government of Papua Province (Q2), and Recovered (R). Parameter values were obtained from COVID-19 data for June-August 2021 in Papua Province. The method for estimating the parameters in the model study uses the least square fitting technique and some of the parameters are taken from other journals, with data sources in Indonesia. Model analysis determines non-endemic stability points, and endemic models determine reproduction numbers. The model analyzed local and global asymptotic stability. The model solution is solved by using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the population was divided into seven subpopulations, namely susceptible (S), vaccination (V), exposed (L), infected not reported (I1), infected reported (I2), quarantine (Q) and recovered (R) subpopulations. Analytical study on the COVID-19 model, to determine the non-endemic equilibrium point, reproduction number, and system stability. The model solution was determined by numerical analysis, and model sensitivity analysis by changing the values of the vaccination rate and treatment rate parameters. Based on numerical simulation results, if the value of the vaccination parameter or the value of the treatment parameter increases, the number of individuals in the subpopulation infected with COVID-19 decreases, and the number of individuals recovered from the subpopulation increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]