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The per capita CO2 emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO2 emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy. Key policy insights Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO2 emissions. The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect. Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the conditions existing in the economic and social environment surrounding the current situation of Japan’s nursing care system for the elderly and the trend of health disparity that can potentially cause problems for the future of an “aging society.”

Did unemployment in the Great Recession hurt people's health? The broad answer is no: job losses have statistically insignificant impacts on mortality. The exogenous sources of job losses in a U.S. county is the tradable job losses driven by external demand collapses during the Great Recession. The insignificant relationship holds for males and females, for all age groups, and for almost all categories of mortality. Three important exceptions are Alzheimer's, poisoning, and homicide.

In recent years, Turkey has been host to more than two million Syrians seeking refuge. Initially concentrated in the southeastern regions, these refugees now reside throughout the country. There are many questions from policy makers regarding the impact of the population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection on the host community. This paper examines the impact of migrants on regional host communities from a poverty perspective. The paper does not find any negative impacts on poverty for the host community from the increasing population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection as of 2013, despite the high poverty rates experienced among the recent migrants.

Policy makers in developing countries, including India, are increasingly sensitive to the links between spatial transformation and economic development. However, the empirical knowledge available on those links is most often insufficient to guide policy decisions. There is no shortage of case studies on urban agglomerations of different sorts, or of benchmarking exercises for states and districts, but more systematic evidence is scarce. To help address this gap, this paper combines insights from poverty analysis and urban economics, and develops a methodology to assess spatial performance with a high degree of granularity. This methodology is applied to India, where individual household survey records are mapped to “places” (both rural and urban) below the district level. The analysis disentangles the contributions household characteristics and locations make to labor earnings, proxied by nominal household expenditure per capita. The paper shows that one-third of the variation in predicted labor earnings is explained by the locations where households reside and by the interaction between these locations and household characteristics such as education. In parallel, this methodology provides a workable metric to describe spatial productivity patterns across India. The paper shows that there is a gradation of spatial performance across places, rather than a clear rural-urban divide. It also finds that distance matters: places with higher productivity are close to each other, but some spread their prosperity over much broader areas than others. Using the spatial distribution of this metric across India, the paper further classifies places at below-district level into four tiers: top locations, their catchment areas, average locations, and bottom locations. The analysis finds that some small cities are among the top locations, while some large cities are not. It also finds that top locations and their catchment areas include many high-performing rural places, and are not necessarily more unequal than average locations. Preliminary analysis reveals that these top locations and their catchment areas display characteristics that are generally believed to drive agglomeration economies and contribute to faster productivity growth.

This paper presents trends in monetary and nonmonetary dimensions of wellbeing in Ethiopia using data from the Household Consumption and Expenditure and Welfare Monitoring surveys implemented in 2000, 2005, and 2011. The paper provides evidence on changes in overlapping deprivations using a non-index approach to multidimensional poverty. It assesses the performance of various dimensions in education, health, and living standards, taking one indicator at a time. It then examines the overlap between different dimensions of poverty and examines how this has changed over time in Ethiopia and across rural and urban areas. It highlights that although Ethiopia’s multidimensional poverty index is very high, there have been improvements in overlapping deprivations and, as a result, the number of individuals deprived in multiple dimensions has fallen.

This issue includes the following headings: living on the edge in Mexico; what has the rise of China meant for labor markets in Latin America?; educating our future teachers; the growing and long-lasting effects of Brazil’s trade liberalization on workers; capturing food consumed away from home in welfare measures; a behavioral approach to water conservation; and using satellite images to estimate local poverty.

This report is based on a field study of two large settlements, Satghara (a census town) and Bhagwatipur (a rural cluster with 10,000 plus population) in the Madhubani district of Bihar. The study explores the social dynamics of the rural non-farm economy by empirically mapping non-farm occupations in both the settlements. It examines the dynamics of caste, community, and gender within the social organization of the non-farm economy in terms of their economic and social hierarchies and the differential incomes and status they provide. The study also looks at the relationship of the local non-farm economy with patterns of outmigration. It further attempts to understand the manner in which the changes in the regional structures of power and domination have influenced the local economic processes and are being influenced by them with a specific focus on the non-farm economy in the two setting. The study also attempts an assessment of the possible development and urbanizing effects of the rather rapid growth of nonfarm economy in rural Madhubani.

This paper examines the impact of labor migration from a welfare and social development perspective. Rather than focusing on regulatory and legal aspects determining migration, this note centers on the impacts of migration on the domestic welfare of households in the Kyrgyz Republic. The profiling of labor migration and identification of knowledge gaps are used to inform the development of strategies for more effective and sustainable welfare impacts from labor migration and remittances.

This report contributes not only to the existing literature, but also provides suggestions for future policy-design related to the TSA program in Georgia. This study shows that Georgia’s TSA program does generate disincentives to search for jobs or work around the threshold of eligibility, with this effect being concentrated among women. This report is structured as follows: Section two discusses the existing literature and provides a more detailed overview of the TSA program. Section three describes the sampling frame, the sampling method and the data used. Section four explains the empirical approach of the study. Section five elaborates on the main results. Section six concludes with a discussion on policy implications.

This paper is a practical guide for researchers and practitioners who want to understand spillover effects in program evaluation. The paper defines spillover effects and discusses why it is important to measure them. It explains how to design a field experiment to measure the average effects of the treatment on eligible and ineligible subjects for the program in the presence of spillover effects. In addition, the paper discusses the use of nonexperimental methods for estimating spillover effects when the experimental design is not a viable option. Evaluations that account for spillover effects should be designed such that they explain the cause of these effects and whom they affect. Such an evaluation design is necessary to avoid inappropriate policy recommendations and neglecting important mechanisms through which the program operates.

There were regional increases and decreases in the number of farm households in pre-war Japan. The aim of this paper is to analyze relevant data of prefectures in the prewar period to find out the regional character of the changes in the number of farm households, and to examine its factors in relation to the Ie system. Our analysis drew six points of conclusion: (1) The number of farm households increased in eastern Japan and south Kyusyu, and decreased in western Japan; (2) Regional increase and decrease in the number of households correlated with the rise and fall in the number of tenant farm households; (3) Regional increase and decrease in the area of arable land also correlated with changes in the number of farm households; (4) Regional shifts in rural populations correlated with regional rise and fall in the number of farm households as well; (5) It is not a correct perception that impartible inheritance of land to a single heir dominated in prewar Japan. The reality was that many farmers divided their Ie property while they were still alive and gave small parts to children who did not succeed to their Ie; and (6) The number of farm households in eastern Japan grew due to the increase in the rural population and creation of tenants households that were given small tenant rights by the father as a social security in exchange for lack of inheritance of Ie.

This paper studies the sharp increase in violence experienced in Mexico after 2006, known as The War on Drugs, and its effects on human capital accumulation. The upsurge in violence is expected to have direct effects on individuals schooling decisions, but not indirect effects, because there was no severe destruction of infrastructure. The fact that the marked increases in violence were concentrated in some municipalities (and not in others) allows for implementation of a fixed-effects methodology to study the effects of violence on educational outcomes. Different from several recent studies that have found significant negative effects of violence on economic outcomes in Mexico, the paper finds evidence that this is not the case, at least for human capital accumulation. The paper uses several sources of data on homicides and educational outcomes and shows that, at most, there are very small effects on total enrollment. These small effects may be driven by some students being displaced from high-violence municipalities to low-violence municipalities; but the education decisions of individuals do not seem to be highly impacted. The analysis discards the possibility that the effects on enrollment of young adults appear small because of a counteracting effect from ex-workers returning to school. The results stand in contrast with recent evidence of the negative effects of violence on short-term economic growth, since minimal to 0 effects on human capital accumulation today should have little to no adverse effects on long-term growth outcomes in Mexico.

This joint study, by the World Bank and the Turkish Ministry of Development, explores the status and effects of good jobs in Turkey s current economy. After a brief account of economic events, it examines the relationship between growth and employment in Turkey, with a particular regard to the participation of different social groups in the labor market, such as women and youth. It then analyzes where jobs are being created and which activities are the most productive for the Turkish economy, and assesses if jobs have moved to more productive activities in recent years. Finally, the report proceeds to measure the impact of different types of jobs on the welfare of an entire household and on the household s relative position in the overall income distribution.

This section describes the priority nutrition interventions and cross-cutting approaches that are essential to promote and protect the nutritional status of mothers and children as well as a country's human capital in the short-, medium-, and long-terms. The main thrust of the guidance is that: (1) policies give special attention to the critical 'window of opportunity' represented by the first 1,000 days of life; (2) policies are aligned with the latest international recommendations in nutrition; (3) policies and interventions of key sectors are coordinated to provide synergy of action; and (4) resources allocated for disaster prevention and emergency management are invested in the most cost-effective way. Monitoring is a continuous process of collecting and analyzing information to better understand how well a program is operating against expected outputs and to allow remedial intervention to correct failures. Situation monitoring measures the change or lack of change, in a condition or a set of conditions and includes monitoring of the wider context. Performance monitoring, on the other hand, measures progress in achieving specific results in relation to an implementation plan. Evaluation is a systematic and objective assessment that attempts to determine the worth or significance of an intervention, strategy, or policy. It is used to appraise the effectiveness of an intervention to determine if it meets its goals, to estimate its results or impact, and to identify its costs vs. its benefits. Promote optimal breastfeeding practices. Provide all pregnant women with daily iron-folic acid supplements for at least six months. Provide deforming treatment to pregnant women, preschool-aged children, and school-aged children in areas where hookworms or soil-transmitted helminthes are prevalent. Establish strong links between agricultural, food security, social protection and nutrition policies that can be used to inform a robust communication program regarding maternal diet and critical infant and young child feeding practices. Support diversified agricultural production to increase availability of nutrient-dense foods, particularly those of animal sources.

Southeast Sulawesi is one of Indonesia's developing provinces and over the past five years has achieved one of the country's highest growth rates. In 2010, Southeast Sulawesi's economy grew at 8.2percent the third fastest in Indonesia. The poverty rate has declined significantly in the past 10 years and the unemployment rate is one the lowest in Indonesia. Per capita expenditure in Southeast Sulawesi has increased nine-fold compared to pre decentralization rates Southeast Sulawesi's consolidated per capita expenditure now falls in the top 10 in Indonesia. However, Southeast Sulawesi is still facing a range of challenges. The Human Development Index (HDI) has continued to lag at 25th in Indonesia over the past five years. Although regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown rapidly, in real per capita terms it is still far below the national provincial average. Southeast Sulawesi' poverty rate also remains above the national average. It will be important for the high and growing rate of per capita expenditure to be matched with improvements in public financial management capacity within the local government. In the context of overcoming these challenges and capitalizing on expanding opportunities, the local governments in Southeast Sulawesi and in particular the provincial government need to work harder to make the most of its budgetary resources. The development agenda and programs must be sharpened and budget allocations must be optimized to achieve development targets, especially in the strategic sectors of education, health, infrastructure and agriculture. This report contains findings and recommendations intended to support sub national governments in Southeast Sulawesi province to enhance their public financial management performance; improve the quality of evidence based planning and budgeting; and accelerate the achievement of existing development targets.

The authorities' determined implementation of stabilization measures over the past year has helped to avert a macroeconomic crisis. If the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment in 2010-11 was rapid, the improvement in the situation in the past twelve months has been equally swift. Regaining macroeconomic stability has been costly, but not stabilizing the economy would have led to even bigger losses. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has decelerated from 6.8 percent in 2010 to 5.9 percent in 2011, and further to 4 percent in the first quarter of 2012 as higher prices has lowered domestic demand, affecting sectors such as construction, manufacturing and utilities. Industrial production has slowed, inventory for key industrial products has accumulated, and a number of small and medium enterprises have either closed, been liquidated or temporarily suspended their operations. While the stabilization efforts may have contributed to a cyclical slowdown, Vietnam's trend growth rate has been on a downward path for the last 5-6 years, largely on account of the slow pace of structural reforms. Inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, banks and public investments have been a drag on the country's long-term growth potential. With gains from macroeconomic stabilization still recent and fragile, especially in an external environment that is fraught with uncertainty, the government needs to be careful not to shift to an expansionary stance prematurely.

Dzud is the Mongolian term for a winter weather disaster in which deep snow, severe cold, or other conditions render forage unavailable or inaccessible and lead to high livestock mortality. Dzud is a regular occurrence in Mongolia, and plays an important role in regulating livestock populations. However, dzud, especially when combined with other environmental or socio-economic stresses and changes, can have a significant impact on household well-being as well as local and national economies. This study aims to fill this gap in knowledge by conducting in-depth case studies of four communities responses to the 2009-2010 dzud to document both household-and community-level impacts and responses. The case studies use a mixed-methods approach employing qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis techniques including interviews, focus groups, household questionnaires, photovoice and document review, and were carried out in two soums (districts) located in the forest-steppe zone of Arkhangai Aimag (province), Ikhtamir and Undur Ulaan, and two soums in the Gobi desert-steppe zone of Bayankhongor Aimag, Jinst and Bayantsagaan. The specific objectives of this study are to assess herder household and community vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and medium-term recovery and resilience from the dzud of 2010.

The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is poised on the edge of a machete blade. Despite the achievement of considerable peace-building successes throughout much of this central African state in recent years, the current activities of armed groups and the Congolese armed forces in North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri, have the potential to further destabilize the eastern provinces, and possibly even neighboring countries. Former combatants are prominent in the security and stability equation in the eastern DRC. The reason is that if this section of society has not been effectively disarmed, demobilized and reintegrated into civilian life, then they have the potential to return to arms. In this region, over 100,000 ex-combatants have been demobilized over the past decade in successive waves of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) interventions. Assessments and speculation about the reintegration of ex-combatants in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri have suggested that these individuals have become marginalized, and their reintegration into civilian society is precarious, thus making them vulnerable to further recruitment by armed groups. Some reports have even suggested that numerous former fighters have remilitarized in the mining areas in order to access mineral wealth. Consequently, research on the socio-economic reintegration of ex-combatants in the eastern DRC was undertaken by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), and funded by the Transitional Demobilization and Reintegration Program (TDRP) of the World Bank. North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri were the three geographical areas of focus, given the volatility and potential pivotal role of these areas in promoting and consolidating peace in the eastern DRC. The specific objectives of the research were to: 1) assess the processes of the socio-economic reintegration of former combatants into civilian life; 2) analyze the causes and dynamics of the current security situation (or lack thereof) in the three areas, and the implications for current and future DDR processes; and 3) evaluate the extent to which demobilized former combatants have been re-recruited into armed groups, including motivating and resilience factors. The research took place between February and September 2011, with the findings and analysis being presented in this report.

Mongolia has very significant natural resources and a large part of the population is dependent on them for their daily living. The impact of the state of the environment on the living standards of herders is obvious, but also Mongolians living in the capital Ulaanbaatar have learned that air pollution, especially in winter, and other environmental problems have a deep impact on their living standards. The Government of the Netherlands has established a Trust Fund at the World Bank to support environmental activities in Mongolia. Under this framework, the World Bank contracted the first Environment and Natural Resource Management Socio-economic Survey for Mongolia (ENRMSS) to the National Statistical Office and an international consultant, the aim of this survey is to investigate public views on environmental issues and to measure the impact of environmental problems on human welfare, measured in economic terms. The first part of section five is devoted to wildlife hunting, fishing and wild nuts and fruits gathering, while the second part of this section focuses on energy consumption. Both complete and complement the information on consumption estimated in the Socioeconomic Survey (SES). Section six presents perception and opinions of herders on issues such as the number of animals in Mongolia or the best way to manage animal movements. Finally, section seven shows results on perceptions and opinions of Mongolians regarding nature and the environment.

This report discusses selected issues regarding accountability in public services. The introduction discusses the accountability framework that will be used for the report. Chapter 1 assesses South Africa's progress on service access and quality, and summarizes recent policy initiatives. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 describe the international and South African experience with mechanisms that seek to improve accountability - public sector reform, citizen report cards, and others - and posits hypotheses to be explored in the following chapters. Chapter 5 applies the World Bank's accountability framework to a participatory assessment of services in six municipalities in South Africa. Chapters 6 and 7 apply the framework to the education and water and sanitation sectors. Chapter 8 explains why community-driven development does not factor in any main South African development programs. Chapter 9 explains the continuing learning practices pioneered in the manufacturing sector and addresses how these practices might be used by the South African government to effect change. Chapter 10 summarizes the conclusions, translates these into main hypotheses to be tested in future work, and formulates a number of policy recommendations for public debate.

Social Safety Nets (SSN) are defined as non?contributory transfer programs targeted to the poor or those vulnerable to poverty and shocks. About half of World Bank social protection projects in the reviewed cohort are SSN. They are mostly non-emergency investment operations with a higher presence in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa regions. Projects aimed at strengthening country's safety nets system, including their targeting, administration and service quality, are the most common type of SSN interventions (25 percent). These are closely followed by conditional cash transfers (20 percent), and health, nutrition and education projects (15 percent). The remaining projects are a mixture of public works; food crisis mitigation measures and other types of safety nets (social inclusion, housing, and technical assistance).

This report presents the results of the World Bank funded project on Costing Adaptation through Local Institutions (CALI). The objectives of the CALI project are to: (1) identify the costs of adaptation through local institutions, and (2) investigate which institutions support households in adapting to climate variability, what efforts and costs are needed to realize the adaptation options, and how they facilitate adaptation to climate variability. The study has been carried out in Mali, Ethiopia, and Yemen. This report discusses the results for Mali.

The objectives of the Costing Adaptation through Local Institutions (CALI) study were (a) to identify the costs of adaptation through local institutions, and (b) to investigate which institutions help households adapt to climate variability, which efforts and costs are needed to realize the adaptation options, and how they facilitate adaptation to climate variability. The study was carried out in Ethiopia, Mali, and Yemen. This report discusses the results for Yemen. In Yemen, village surveys were conducted in six villages and two expert workshops were organized to discuss the main framework of the study and to evaluate the draft results. The study assessed household vulnerability, analyzed the strategies households adopt to reduce the impacts of climate hazards, and evaluated the assistance households receive from different institutions. The analysis was based on household surveys, focus group discussions, and institutional stakeholder interviews. Vulnerability profiles, developed on the basis of field survey results, show that household vulnerability differs substantially between and within villages. The results show that the vulnerability and agro ecological potential in Yemen are related to rainfall, which is related to altitude. This study is a reflection of the insights that (a) poor, rural households are facing most of the climate variability- related hazards; (b) adaptation also has socioeconomic aspects; (c) understanding local adaptation processes is important for informing macro-policies; and (d) for prioritizing future adaptation, it is crucial to analyze historical adaptation strategies. The study involves an assessment of the adaptation options rural household pursue. The study also considers the differential access of various vulnerability groups, as well as the drivers for adopting particular strategies or constraints for not adopting other strategies. For this, households and institutional stakeholders were interviewed in six villages in Yemen, focus group discussions were organized, and experts were consulted.

The objective of this study is to identify lessons for improving cookstoves in Bangladesh through an evaluation of existing programs, the international experience on improved stoves, and the lessons from successes in the sanitation sector. Bangladesh's new renewable energy policy endorses creating a better environment for renewable energy technologies and promoting market development for improved cookstoves (Government of Bangladesh 2009). This study supports this policy direction by examining possible strategies to move forward the development of markets for improved stoves in Bangladesh. The study consists of several components: a national review of household energy programs; an evaluation of national sanitation programs; and an examination of improved cookstove programs from around the world, including China, Guatemala, Haiti, Mongolia, Nepal, and Uganda. The study is based on published literature, consultations with organizations throughout Bangladesh, site visits, and structured discussions with beneficiaries and other stakeholders.

This review of public expenditures on Social Protection (SP) in Nicaragua is based on the analytical framework of Social Risk Management (SRM) developed by the World Bank. The concept of managing social risk comes from the notion that certain groups in society are vulnerable to unexpected shocks which threaten their livelihood and/or survival. Social protection focuses on the poor since they are more vulnerable to the risks and normally do not have the instruments to handle these risks. This prevents the poor from taking more risky activities that usually yield higher returns and that could help them overcome gradually their poverty situation. Social risk management involves policies and programs aimed at reducing key risks, breaking inter-generational cycle of poverty and vulnerability. Risk management consists in the choice of appropriate risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies to minimize the adverse impact of social risks. Social protection under SRM is defined as public interventions to assist individuals, households and communities to better manage risk and provide support to the critically poor. Thus Social protection should provide: a safety net, particularly for the poor that are likely to fall in the cracks of established programs; and a springboard for the poor to bounce out of poverty.