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The Northeast Passage (NEP) has always been an attractive transport alternative for trade between Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia due to its shorter distance. While a growing body of literature addresses the economic and technical viability of NEP transit shipping, there is still a need for increased knowledge on the features of maritime trade between the regions that could potentially use the route. This study aimed to propose a conceptual model to explain the main factors influencing the cargo demand transported by container ships in order to analyse the types of trade that could increase by using the NEP. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied to the empirical data on trade volumes between Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia and suggested that logistics performance has the greatest impact on total volume of container ship flow between these regions. The data of maritime trade volume are further disaggregated to examine how the impact of the analysed factors varied between commodity groups. This study contributes to identifying which type of cargo flow may be the most receptive in case of opening the NEP for regular shipping whilst offering insights into the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on container ship demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic shipping activities are increasing in the context of sea ice decline. However, research gaps persist in studying recent Arctic shipping activities across various vessel types and their connection with sea ice conditions. Utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and sea ice satellite observations between 2015 and 2020, these matters are delved into this study. A discernible overall growth trend in Arctic traffic occupancy occurs from 2015 to 2020 during summer and autumn. Excluding passenger ships, the traffic occupancy trend for each ship type closely parallels that for all ships. Variations in traffic occupancy along the Northeast Passage dominate that in the entire Arctic. As sea ice diminishes, both Arctic traffic occupancy and its variability noticeably increase. Further examination of the relationship between shipping activities and ice conditions reveals that increased traffic occupancy corresponds significantly to diminishing sea ice extent, and the constraint imposed by sea ice on Arctic traffic occupancy weakens, while the 6-year AIS data could lead to uncertainties. In summary, as the Arctic sea ice declines continuously, not only sea ice but also additional social, military, and environmental factors constraining marine activities should be considered in the future operation of Arctic shipping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feasibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is assessed against the established Suez Canal route (SCR) and the longer Cape of Good Hope route. The analysis reflects real practices of route choice for oil products between the Far East and Europe depending on varying market conditions. A required freight rate (RFR) model is developed based on both optimal speeds and real speeds. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data are used to identify route choice patterns and real speeds of Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers during 2013–2020. Cargo value on-board and alternative fuel types/modes based on oil, and current and future technologies of dual fuel Oil/Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) are considered. Cape is a competitive alternative under low fuel/commodity prices, and its use is explained, especially during the oil oversupply in 2015–2016 and 2020. The NSR is more competitive when moving towards short-hauls, under high fuel/commodity prices, and discounted or zero icebreaking fees, but is uncompetitive most of the times when ice damage repairs are included in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a special issue of the journal Maritime Policy & Management, focusing on the transitions and revolutions in the maritime industry and the challenges they present. The articles in this issue cover a range of topics, including the changing agreements between liner shipping companies, shifts in connectivity in Africa, the potential of the Northeast Passage as a trade route, governance and digitization in ports, the benefits of automated container terminals, and the future of education and training in the maritime sector. These papers provide valuable insights into the future of the industry and the skills and approaches needed to navigate these changes effectively. [Extracted from the article]

Blue economy is an all-inclusive concept based on seas and shorelines. India has prioritized its blue economy policies, and maritime development (logistics, infrastructure and shipping) is one of them. For charting the nation's growth, a regular review of global trends and India's plans is imperative. The major drivers or focal areas will be decarbonization and digitalization. Increased costs due to transformations, including technology acceptances and investments in port development to improve productivity will be on predictable paths. Shipping route alternatives (Northern Sea route, Belt and Road Initiative, etc.) will be in the discourses. Digitalization measures such as Maritime Single Window, Port Community Systems, etc. will get traction. India needs to shift gears with its Sagarmala projects and keep pace with the global transformative changes, especially on the digital front. Based on its new National Logistics Policy, logistics costs as a large head need to be considered along with performance metrics. This article juxtaposes global trends and indices, and lists a few issues that India must address. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Sea Route (NSR) has attracted much attention from the academia. However, the relevant issues, namely, the seasonal variation of sea ice coverage, the possibility and delay of ice besetting events (IBEs), formulation of ice-breaker escort fee and rescue fee, and the internalization of environmental costs, are considered in past models, but not in a systematic manner. To break through the limitations of previous studies, this paper investigates the economic and environmental feasibility of the NSR for container service, and clarifies the said issues using the latest survey data on a business case. Specifically, a novel evaluation model was developed to estimate the required freight rate (RFR) comprehensively, from the perspective of economic and environmental costs. Based on the modeling results, the optimal scheme was designed for all-season commercial liner transportation via the NSR. Besides, the RFR-based logit competitiveness model was adopted to evaluate how the NSR as an alternative to the Suez Canal Route (SCR) is affected by multiple factors: the delay induced by the IBEs, carbon tax rate, loading factor of eastbound containerships, and fuel price. The research results provide reference for decision-makers to formulate operations plans for ice class, navigation speed, and ship type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice, one of the most dominant barriers to Arctic shipping, has decreased dramatically over the past four decades. Arctic maritime transport is hereupon growing in recent years. To produce a long-term assessment of trans-Arctic accessibility, we systematically revisit the daily Arctic navigability with a view to the combined effects of sea ice thickness and concentration throughout the period 1979–2020. The general trends of Navigable Windows (NW) in the Northeast Passage show that the number of navigable days is steadily growing and reached 89±16 days for Open Water (OW) ships and 163±19 days for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships in the 2010s, despite high interannual and interdecadal variability in the NWs. More consecutive NWs have emerged annually for both OW ships and PC6 ships since 2005 because of the faster sea ice retreat. Since the 1980s, the number of simulated Arctic routes has continuously increased, and optimal navigability exists in these years of record-low sea ice extent (e.g., 2012 and 2020). Summertime navigability in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, on the other hand, varies dramatically due to changing sea ice conditions. This systematic assessment of Arctic navigability provides a reference for better projecting the future trans-Arctic shipping routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a phylogeographical study of Juxtacribrilina mutabilis, a recently described bryozoan from Japan with sightings in Sweden, Norway, and Maine (US), to test how fast and far it has expanded across Europe in recent years. J. mutabilis settles easily on ship hulls, making it a useful model organism for studying long-distance invasion pathways. The study was conducted using Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) to monitor the entire European coastline and Svalbard for J. mutabilis using DNA metabarcoding. During the time between its first sighting in Europe 2008 and the last ARMS retrieval 2020, the data shows how J. mutabilis has gained a pan-European distribution, being genetically identified in 14 new distinct locations. Presence/absence of barcodes were confirmed by image-based identification in 74% of the samples. Fourteen haplotypes never reported before were discovered in a 264 bp region of the cytochrome oxidase I gene. Two haplotypes (HP1 and HP3) occurred frequently and geographically widely dispersed, indicating intercontinental connectivity. Two locations, Koster and Getxo showed particularly high genetic diversity with similar haplotype networks suggesting continuous gene flow across oceanographically unlinked regions. Given the recent description of J. mutabilis and the relatively few historical encounters, the genetic diversity described here suggests an unusually fast range expansion within the last two decades. Such global spreading events of fouling organisms may become more common in the future as a result of more frequent and interconnected ship traffic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecology and biogeography of bivalve transmissible neoplasia (BTN) are underexplored due to its recent discovery and a challenging diagnostics. Blue mussels harbour two evolutionary lineages of BTN, MtrBTN1 and MtrBTN2, both derived from Mytilus trossulus. MtrBTN1 has been found only in M. trossulus from North Pacific. MtrBTN2 parasitizes different Mytilus spp. worldwide. BTN in M. trossulus in the Atlantic sector has never been studied. We looked for BTN in mussels from the Barents Sea using flow cytometry of cells, qPCR with primers specific to cancer‐associated alleles and sequencing of mtDNA and nuclear loci. Both MtrBTN1 and MtrBTN2 were present in our material, though their prevalence was low (~0.4%). All cancers parasitized M. trossulus except one, MtrBTN1, which was found in a hybrid between M. trossulus and M. edulis. The mtDNA haplotypes found in both lineages were nearly identical to those known from the Northwest Pacific but not from elsewhere. Our results suggest that these two lineages may have arrived in the Barents Sea in recent decades with the maritime transport along the Northern Sea Route. A young evolutionary age of MtrBTN1 seems to indicate that it is an emerging disease in the process of niche expansion. Comparing the new and the published sequence data on tumour suppressor p53, we proved that the prevalence of BTN in mussels can reach epizootic levels. The finding of diverse recombinants between paternally and maternally inherited mtDNAs in somatic tissues of M. trossulus was an unexpected result of our study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors analyzed the navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and developed the pathfinding algorithm for its strategic assessment. It creates a framework connecting weather observations with shipping operational parameters: travel speed, travel time, travel distance, the necessity of icebreaker escort. It is based on the A* algorithm, the Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS) methodology, and empirical relationships between ship's speed and environmental data. The idea is to minimize travel time since sailing through areas with severe weather conditions requires speed reduction. The objective function finds the fastest safe path with minimal icebreaker escort. We used 2019–2020 environmental data to test the algorithm and analyzed daily optimal NSR transit routes for Eastbound and Westbound directions. It was shown that environmental parameters significantly affect the vessel's path, while ice parameters make the largest contribution. Depending on the ship's ice class and sailing season, it takes between 11 and 38 days to complete the entire route. All obtained operational parameters are valuable for assessing transportation costs, profitability, and riskiness of NSR. We provide their seasonal, monthly, and weekly values, and statistical parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes a probabilistic model (stochastic generator) of spatiotemporal variability of sea ice concentration. The values of the concentration are generated at the nodes of the spatial grid with 10‑km resolution; the model time step is 1 day. The change in ice concentration with time (temporal variability) is modeled on the basis of a matrix of transient probabilities (discrete Markov chain), each row of which is a distribution function of the conditional probability of changes in the concentration. Spatial variability is determined by empirical probability fields, with which the observed changes in fields of concentration are associated with known conditional probability distribution functions. To identify the parameters of the stochastic generator, satellite data from the OSI SAF project for 1987–2019 were used. The generator takes into account seasonal, interannual, and climatic variability. Interannual and climatic variability are determined on the basis of a stochastic model of changes in the types of ice coverage. In order to verify the developed stochastic generator, we compare the statistical indicators of observed and calculated ice fields. The results show that the field-average absolute error of statistical characteristics of the ice concentration (average and standard deviation) does not exceed 3.3%. The discrepancy between the correlation intervals of ice coverage calculated from the model and measured ice concentration fields does not exceed 2 days. The variograms of the modeled and observed fields have a similar form and close values. As an example, we determine the duration of navigation of Arc4 ice class ships between the Barents and Kara seas using synthetic fields of the concentration reproduced by the stochastic generator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia accords high priority to developing its Northern Sea Route while acknowledging substantial investment needs. China has shown increasing interest in Arctic shipping and has finance and technology. Infrastructure cooperation has been highlighted in the context of the warming relationship between the two countries. Russian scholars express considerable concern regarding China's long-term goals in the Arctic and reluctance to allow China's influence, but expectations of investment remain high. Chinese scholars have been optimistic about prospects for cooperation, although not satisfied with the conditions Russia seems willing to offer. This background may help to explain the almost total lack of Sino–Russian cooperation in maritime infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic summer sea ice has been declining in recent decades. In this study, we investigate the beginning of the Arctic melting season, i.e., sea ice melt onset (MO), in the Laptev Sea (LS) and East Siberian Sea (ESS) along the Northern Sea route. Three leading modes are identified by EOF decomposition, which we call the LE-mode, L-mode, and E-mode. In positive phases these modes exhibit earlier MO in the two seas, a seesaw-like structure in the southwest–northeast direction with earlier MO in the LS, or in the southeast–northwest direction with earlier MO in the ESS. The LE-mode, L-mode, and E-mode are closely related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in April, the Barents Oscillation (BO) in April, and the AO in May, respectively. When the AO in April is positive, a low pressure anomaly northwest of the LS and ESS brings warm, moist air masses from the lower latitudes toward the LS and ESS and causes earlier MO, corresponding to the positive LE-mode. When the BO in April is negative, a cyclonic anomaly around the Barents Sea tends to warm and moisten the LS and cause earlier MO there, corresponding to the positive L-mode. When AO in May is positive, a low pressure anomaly northeast of the LS and ESS brings more warm, moist air toward the ESS and causes earlier MO there, corresponding to the positive E-mode. In the 1980s, the negative LE-mode was prominent whereas in the early 1990s the positive LE-mode was dominant. Since the mid-1990s, the L-mode and E-mode have appeared more frequently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic's navigation and utilization have garnered global interest due to the economic and strategic significance of its open shipping routes. The feasibility and cost-effectiveness of Arctic wind power generation depend largely on the potential of wind energy, which in turn influences the construction of new ports. In order to effectively harness polar wind energy, we must understand and adapt to its ever-changing rules. This study leverages ERA5′s 40-year wind field data to estimate the Theil–Sen Median slope and perform Mann–Kendall trend analysis. We consider factors such as wind power density, effective wind speed occurrence, energy level frequency, stability, and resource reserves to comprehensively analyze the intergenerational variations in Arctic wind energy resources. Our findings indicate that Northeast Passage, Davis Strait, and Baffin Bay possess favorable wind power density (1~2 W/m2·yr−1), effective wind speed occurrence (0.1~0.2%·yr−1), energy level frequency (0.1~0.2%·yr−1), stability (−0.005 yr−1), and resource reserves (1 kWh/m2·yr−1). However, these indicators are inferior in the Barents Sea, Canada's northern archipelagos, and Greenland's vicinity, where wind energy is relatively poor and unfavorable for development. Autumn dominates the annual change trend of Arctic wind energy, while spring and summer show no significant trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomenon of state capitalism is attracting growing attention in economic geography and political economy. We contribute to the debate by exploring the authoritarian state capitalism variant whereby the state moves beyond a predominantly regulatory role and appears as the dominant actor. We take Russia to be a prominent example of authoritarian state capitalism because the central state has subjugated economy, created organisational structures and designed development strategies to serve the interests of the kleptocrat, inverting the conventional meaning of 'state capture'. The paper illustrates the centrality of the state by exploring two state-sponsored megaprojects: (i) the upgrade of the Northern Sea Route and (ii) the construction of innovation clusters (Skolkovo). In the first case, the state directs resources to the Northern Sea Route to secure Russia's control of the Arctic. In the second case, the state attempts to replicate the perceived developmental success stories of the West by fostering technology clusters. Each illustrative case offers an instructive insight into Russia's authoritarian state capitalism characterised by tensions between its own political and economic repertoires and a contentious relationship with the Western-dominated liberal capitalist world order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses a book that examines international cooperation in the Arctic and challenges the traditional utilitarian approach to the region. Researchers from Canada, Finland, Norway, Russia, and the United States use qualitative and quantitative methods to explore various sectors, including energy, climate change, diplomacy, security, culture, technological innovation, and education. The book presents four potential scenarios for cooperation in the Arctic and provides a nuanced understanding of present and future trends in Arctic development. It also highlights the importance of sustainable development and the need for alternative forms of cooperation in the face of geopolitical tensions and Russia's isolation. [Extracted from the article]

Comprehensive geological, geophysical, geomorphological, and hydrophysical studies were carried out on the R/V Akademik Boris Petrov in the eastern Barents Sea and western Kara Sea in fall 2022. The research included multibeam echo sounding and seismic profiling, hydrological sounding, and sampling of water and sediments in the areas of oil and gas field development and along the Northern Sea Route. The expedition studied in depth the structure of the seabed relief and upper sedimentary strata at the given research sites. The distribution areas of various glacial landforms and modern geohazards were refined during the expedition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice extends the area of open ocean for new trans‐Arctic shipping routes. However, the projected routes may be too optimistic in terms of savings in shipping costs from shortened trans‐Arctic distances as they do not consider the increased sea fog frequency (SFF) over areas of the retreating sea ice. We show that delays due to sea fog can be 1–4 days, about 23%–27% along the Northwest Passage and 4%–11% along the Northern Sea Route than previous estimated. We design a route based on the projected sea‐ice extent and SFF. The new route can reduce the sailing time by 0.3–1 day by detouring the routes with lighter impacts of sea fog. More importantly the new route will lower the risk of catastrophic accidents compared to the shortest route and saves the additional costs due to unscheduled port calls. Plain Language Summary: Rapid loss of sea ice under global warming opens up the Arctic Ocean to shipping. The available trans‐Arctic shipping in the near future will strongly decrease sailing time and financial costs from the Far East to Northwest Europe. Previous designs of trans‐Arctic shipping routes mainly considered sea ice distribution, but ignored the important effect of frequent and high‐risk polar sea fog. Here, we project Arctic sea fog frequency in 21st century and evaluate its influence on trans‐Arctic shipping routes. The results highlight the necessity to redesign the routes by including sea fog effect for safer ship navigation. Key Points: About 20%–30% of Arctic shipping routes experience frequent sea fog frequency more than 20%Sea fog increases the shipping time by 23%–27% along the Northwest Passage and 4%–11% along the Northern Sea Route than previous estimationsShipping routes by minimizing the impacts of sea fog can save 0.3–1 days sailing time by detouring dense‐sea‐fog region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to a shift from the culture of compliance to the culture of benchmarking, the Polar Code process of ensuring safe operation and environmental protection in Polar waters is still ongoing. The risk and goal-based approaches embedded in significant parts of the Polar Code invite different stakeholders to participate in the development of Arctic shipping governance. The methodology used in the process, such as POLARIS, may serve as a common baseline, but its utility relies on further updates and validation. The reliability of decision-support systems depends largely on whether different stakeholders embrace the system and share their experiences to facilitate systematic updates. This article compares the approaches of the two major coastal states, Canada and Russia, to POLARIS as reflected in their coastal state systems of shipping control in the Canadian Arctic Waters and the Russian Northern Sea Route (NSR). Considering that much Arctic shipping occurs within the Canadian Arctic and the NSR, their regulatory approaches may affect POLARIS's popularity, acceptance, and, eventually, success in providing a common regulatory baseline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes the hydrocarbon reserves in the oil and gas provinces of Russia's Arctic territory, as well as specific features of the region's raw hydrocarbon potential. It has been noted that the implementation of Arctic hydrocarbon-associated projects requires that a unified transport and logistics system be created, with the Northern Sea Route being the basis. The factors affecting the volume of cargo transportation along the Arctic routes are presented. It has been established that the hydrocarbon extraction and liquefied natural gas production in the Russian Arctic zone is the most important factor in the formation of cargo flows along the Northern Sea Route. The most significant oil and gas projects that comprise the bulk of freight traffic flow along the Arctic transportation corridors have been reviewed. The ports, as the main element of the Arctic transport system, are described in terms of their state and infrastructure. It has been indicated that the construction, modernization, and operation of the Arctic ports are closely related to the creation of long-distance railway corridors, and the construction of new railway lines leading to the Arctic Basin ports can serve as a reliable basis for the growth of the Northern Sea Route's cargo potential. A conclusion has been drawn about the special significance of the Murmansk region for the formation of the Arctic transport system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the consequences of the recently declassified Soviet decree No. 331-112 of 27 April 1965 that established, inter alia, the status of the Soviet Arctic straits along the Northern Sea Route with respect to warships' right of innocent passage. This article argues that the decree, read in conjunction with Article 5.2 of the 1958 Convention on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone and Article 8.2 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, establishes a right of innocent passage through the majority of the Russian Arctic straits, which warships can enjoy. Furthermore, this article asserts that the decree calls into question the existence of a customary regime regulating navigation through the Arctic straits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russian resource developers operating in remote parts of the Arctic have demonstrated over the past several years that it is feasible to extract natural resources throughout the year, and ship large quantities of raw materials with regular intervals from the Arctic to international markets; this despite very difficult operational conditions in the Arctic during both winter and spring. Several resource extraction projects are currently being implemented or planned. This study examines how the extractive companies have built up enhanced supply chain resilience and transport reliability to mitigate common Arctic risks. The companies have taken control over supply chains and adopted several precautionary and innovative infrastructure and logistics measures designed to prevent or mitigate disruption to these supply chains. Preferred logistical solutions for all of these extraction projects have developed into large package deals, where long-term production and transport of commodities, icebreaking services, and state support are all included. Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine, will slow down the pace of future Russian projects in the Arctic, at least in the short to medium-term, but the sanctions are likely to increase the future significance of export terminals on the NSR, as the preferred departure points for Russian Arctic commodities on their way to selective market destinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correlations between the amount of precipitation in the Lena and Yana river basins in winter and the ice coverage of the Laptev and East Siberian seas near the New Siberian Islands in the spring-summer period are studied based on the GLORYS12v.1 and ERA5 global reanalyses and archival meteorological data. A statistically significant correlation (with a confidence level of at least 0.95) was established in the certain parts of the study area. The Yana basin winter precipitation was found to have the highest correlation with the ice coverage in May. The correlation between the Lena basin precipitation and the ice coverage in July is lower, but also significant. During the other months, no significant correlations were revealed. The established facts may be of practical use for long-range forecasting of ice conditions near the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of the summer navigation along the Northern Sea Route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic sea ice is becoming a more seasonal phenomenon as a direct result of global warming. Across the Arctic, the refreezing of the ocean surface each autumn now occurs a full month later than it did just 40 years ago. In the western Arctic (Canada Basin), the delay is related to an increase in the seasonal heat stored in surface waters; cooling to the freezing point requires more heat loss to the atmosphere in autumn. In the marginal ice zone, the cooling and freezing process is mediated by ocean mixing and by the presence of remnant sea ice, which may precondition the ocean surface for refreezing. The delay in refreezing has many impacts, including increased open ocean exposure to autumn storms, additional wave energy incident to Arctic coasts, shifts in animal migration patterns, and extension of the time window for transit by commercial ships along the Northern Sea Route. This article reviews the observed trends in the western Arctic and the processes responsible for these trends, and provides brief in situ observations from the Beaufort Sea that illustrate some of these process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the years, many publications have been published on planning ship's passage through the NSR and input and output data modeling. Results were not considered in terms of errors of modeled output data. Basic research for the years 2008 - 2020 was carried out in the study on opening and closing dates of ice-free transit corridor on the NSR and probable number of tariff zones where paid assistance of icebreakers would be required. Mathematical relationships of average values and probable errors of navigational, ecological and economic ship voyage performance were developed. For this purpose, partial derivatives of functions were used. The outcomes of the study have shown that changes of total average cost of vessel's transit voyage depends mostly on number of tariff zones where assistance of icebreakers is required. But navigation with icebreakers assistance ensures smaller standard deviation of total voyage time and thus more precise scheduling of ship's voyage timetable through the NSR. The higher probability of meeting requirements set by decision-maker when planning a long-term voyage of ship, the shorter time window for meeting these requirements. Outside the favorable time window, the navigational, ecological and economic results of voyage deteriorate very quickly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The duration of the navigation period (DNP) on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and in some parts of it in the twenty-first century has been analyzed based on the models of the CMIP5 ensemble (Coupled Models Intercomparison project, phase 5) under the RCP 8.5 scenario using Bayesian averaging methods. According to the study results, differences in the quality of the DNP models and in DNP variations are greater in the western part of the NSR than in the eastern part. The DNP ensemble average was obtained in the range of 3–4 months in the middle of the twenty-first century and increasing to about six months by the end of the century. The ensemble average estimates of variations in DNP are generally robust for the choice of assumptions used for calculating the Bayesian weights. The joint consideration of the quality of modeled climate characteristics on all time scales (long-term average, interannual variations, and linear trend) in comparison with the satellite data makes it possible to reduce the intermodel standard deviation by two times for the western part of the NSR and one and a half times for the eastern part. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil pollution is today one of the main factors of the technogenic impact on the environment. Emergency oil spills are the main source of the oil pollution. The causes, scales, and environmental consequences of emergency spills are considered. The advantages and drawbacks of methods for eliminating the spills of crude oil and petroleum products on the surface of water bodies are discussed. The features of the sorption method for oil collection from the water surface, which is the most widely used method, are described in detail. Requirements to petroleum sorbents are analyzed, and classes of the sorbents are described. Synthetic polymer sorbents have a set of advantages over other types of oil-absorbing materials. Fighting emergency oil spills should include the activity aimed at their prevention. This is particularly topical for Russia, which starts active operation of the Northern Sea Route and of shelf deposits of fossil fuels in seas of the Russian Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses Russia's Artic strategy and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion. Topics discussed include that Russia has set priorities of developing oil and gas resources to improve living conditions to attract qualified labour, it also focuses on rebuilding a military presence to protect the country's Arctic territory and maritime space, and discussed that expansion of the Northern Sea Route will facilitate commercial activity along Russia's coastline.

The continuing decline of the summertime sea ice cover has reduced the sea ice path that must be traversed to Arctic destinations and through the Arctic between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, stimulating interest in trans–Arctic Ocean routes. Seasonal prediction of the sea ice cover along these routes could support the increasing summertime ship traffic taking advantage of recent low ice conditions. We introduce the minimum Arctic sea ice path (MIP) between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as a shipping-relevant metric that is amenable to multidecadal hindcast evaluation. We show, using 1992–2017 retrospective predictions, that bias correction is necessary for the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) forecast system to improve upon damped persistence seasonal forecasts of summertime daily MIP between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans both east and west of Greenland, corresponding roughly to the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Without bias correction, only the Northwest Passage MIP forecasts have lower error than a damped persistence forecast. Using the forecast ensemble spread to estimate a lower bound on forecast error, we find large opportunities for forecast error reduction, especially at lead times of less than 2 months. Most of the potential improvement remains after linear removal of climatological and trend biases, suggesting that significant error reduction might come from improved initialization and simulation of subannual variability. Using a different passive microwave sea ice dataset for calculating error than was used for data assimilation increases the raw forecast errors but not the trend anomaly forecast errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to provide a basic approach to fulfill the spatial visualization of geopolitical environmental factors required for the navigation of vessels in the Arctic. Multi-dimensional geopolitical environmental factors of the Arctic Passage are analyzed and classified into geopolitics, geoeconomics, geo-military, geoculture, and laws and regulations related to geography. Their characteristics are extracted to form an attribute information table matching spatial layers. Based on the information category and basic characteristics, the spatial match method is applied and connected with the spatial layers to examine the spatial point, polyline, and polygon. According to the qualitative description, the study extracted the quantitative indicators for the following spatial–temporal pattern analysis. The standard deviational ellipse is used to analyze the spatial–temporal patterns and trends of the geopolitical environmental indicators of the Arctic Passage in the Arctic and Northeast Asia. The expansion and contraction of geoinformation coexist in the countries surrounding the Arctic Passage. The spatial–temporal changes indicate that the Arctic channel has a great economic impact on the Nordic countries and Northeast Asia, especially the coastal areas of China and Japan. The characteristic extraction and spatial match of the geopolitical environment provide integrated Arctic geoinformation inquiry and services for the diplomatic, administrative, and legal preparations required for Arctic navigation. Therefore, the geospatial analysis conducted provides scientific support and a basis for the geographical distribution and developing trends of visualization and spatial–temporal pattern in Arctic navigation. The results of this research will help decision-makers to make a comprehensive judgment on governance related to the sustainable development of the Arctic Passage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming is causing a significant reduction in the extent and the thickness of Arctic sea ice, a narrative for future large-scale commercial shipping in the Arctic has started to evolve. However, while most efforts have aimed to assess the financial benefits along with potential savings in greenhouse gas emissions, few studies have explored risk patterns and safety issues associated with Arctic shipping and its current commercial alternatives in a geospatial manner. This study aims at addressing this gap in the literature, by assessing the risk factors associated with Arctic shipping, in particular, risks along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting European and Asian ports. Its main component includes a global least-cost analysis, aiming to assess global and Arctic risk factors associated with commercial shipping, to derive the least risk paths from 10 major ports in Europe to 10 in Asia. To project the results into the future, and thus assess the future potential of the NSR as a viable and less risky alternative, a dataset on predicted sea ice thickness within 2010–2099, restricted the analysis based on the penetration capabilities of three selected vessel types. Ultimately, the study concludes that maritime transportation, bound for East-Asia, commencing from most northern European ports, could benefit from the NSR, not just in terms of distance savings, cost reduction and less CO2 production, but also as a safer alternative. Lastly, two recommendations drawn from our results aim to assist decision-makers in facilitating future Arctic transportation by addressing accessibility and safety issues. Highlights We explore risk patterns and safety issues associated with Arctic shipping and its current commercial alternatives in a geospatial manner. We assess the future potential of the northern sea route (NSR) as a viable and less risky alternative for European-Asian shipping. We provide a discussion on pros and cons of utilising the NSR in terms of distance savings resulting in cost reduction as well as less CO2 production, and as a safer alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]