Search

Snow is particularly impacted by climate change and therefore there is an urgent need to understand the temporal and spatial variability of depth of snowfall (HN) trends. However, the analysis of historical HN observations on large‐scale areas is often impeded by lack of continuous long‐term time series availability. This study investigates HN trends using observed time series spanning the period 1920–2020 from 46 sites in the Alps at different elevations. To discern patterns and variations in HN over the years, our analysis focuses also on key parameters such as precipitation (P), mean air temperature (TMEAN), and large‐scale synoptic descriptors, that is, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices. Our findings reveal that in the last 100 years and below 2000 m a.s.l., despite a slight increase in winter precipitation, there was a decrease in HN over the Alps, especially for southern and low‐elevation sites. The South‐West and South‐East regions experienced an average loss of 4.9 and 3.8%/decade, respectively. A smaller relative loss was found in the Northern region (2.3%/decade). The negative HN trends can be mainly explained by an increase of TMEAN by 0.15°C/decade. Most of the decrease in HN occurred mainly between 1980 and 2020, as a result of a more pronounced increase in TMEAN. This is also confirmed by the change of the running correlation between HN and TMEAN, NAO, AO over time, which until 1980 were not correlated at all, while the correlation increased in later years. This suggests that in more recent years favourable combinations of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pattern have become more crucial for snowfall to occur. On the other hand, no correlation was found with the AMO index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internal variability arising from the inherently chaotic nature of the climate system has amplified or obscured human-caused changes, especially at regional scales in the extratropics, where its contribution to climate variability is the largest. It is virtually certain that this will continue in the near-term. We here focus on the Northern Europe region, whose variability is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through remote dynamical and thermodynamic processes, and introduce the concept of internal variability storylines (IVS) to explore, understand, and quantify the role of the two combined drivers of internal variability in the modulation of the anthropogenic warming by 2040 in winter. Based on a large ensemble of historical-scenario simulations, we show that the high-impact IVS, characterised by weak AMOC decline and a decadal shift of the NAO toward dominant positive phase, leads faster to warmer-wetter conditions independently of actual and future greenhouse gases emissions. By contrast, amplified AMOC reduction and more recurrent negative NAO can considerably damp both warming and wettening at near-term. In the latter IVS, we provide evidence that winter-severe conditions similar to those in 2010, that had been responsible for widespread socio-economic disruptions, remain almost as likely to occur by 2040. Reframing the uncertain climate outcomes into the physical science space in a conditional form through the prism of IVS makes climate information relevant for accurate risk assessments and adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake ice phenology serves as a sensitive indicator of climate change in the lake-rich Northeast China. In this study, the freeze-up date (FUD), break-up date (BUD), and ice cover duration (ICD) of 31 lakes were extracted from a time series of the land water surface temperature (LWST) derived from the combined MOD11A1 and MYD11A1 products for the hydrological years 2001 to 2021. Our analysis showed a high correlation between the ice phenology measures derived by our study and those provided by hydrological records (R2 of 0.89) and public datasets (R2 > 0.7). There was a notable coherence in lake ice phenology in Northeast China, with a trend in later freeze-up (0.21 days/year) and earlier break-up (0.19 days/year) dates, resulting in shorter ice cover duration (0.50 days/year). The lake ice phenology of freshwater lakes exhibited a faster rate of change compared to saltwater lakes during the period from HY2001 to HY2020. We used redundancy analysis and correlation analysis to study the relationships between the LWST and lake ice phenology with various influencing factors, including lake properties, local climate factors, and atmospheric circulation. Solar radiation, latitude, and air temperature were found to be the primary factors. The FUD was more closely related to lake characteristics, while the BUD was linked to local climate factors. The large-scale oscillations were found to influence the changes in lake ice phenology via the coupled influence of air temperature and precipitation. The Antarctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation correlate more with LWST in winter, and the Arctic Oscillation correlates more with the ICD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This letter raises the possibility that ergodicity concerns might have some bearing on the signal‐to‐noise paradox. This is explored by applying the ergodic theorem to the theory behind ensemble weather forecasting and the ensemble mean. Using the ensemble mean as our best forecast of observations amounts to interpreting it as the most likely phase‐space trajectory, which relies on the ergodic theorem. This can fail for ensemble forecasting systems if members are not perfectly exchangeable with each other, the averaging window is too short and/or there are too few members. We argue these failures can occur in cases such as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecasts due to intransitivity or regime behaviour for regions such as the North Atlantic and Arctic. This behaviour, where different ensemble members may become stuck in different relatively persistent flow states (intransitivity) or multi‐modality (regime behaviour), can in certain situations break the ergodic theorem. The problem of non‐ergodic systems and models in the case of weather forecasting is discussed, as are potential mitigation methods and metrics for ergodicity in ensemble systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the link between climatic factors on one hand, such as climate change and low frequency climate oscillation indices, and the occurrence and magnitude of heat waves on the other hand, and given the impact of heat waves on mortality, these climatic factors could provide some predictive skill for mortality. We propose a new model, the Mortality-Duration-Frequency (MDF) relationship, to relate the intensity of an extreme summer mortality event to its duration and frequency. The MDF model takes into account the non-stationarities observed in the mortality data through covariates by integrating information concerning climate change through the time trend and climate variability through climate oscillation indices. The proposed approach was applied to all-cause mortality data from 1983 to 2018 in the metropolitan regions of Quebec and Montreal in eastern Canada. In all cases, models introducing covariates lead to a substantial improvement in the goodness-of-fit in comparison to stationary models without covariates. Climate change signal is more important than climate variability signal in explaining maximum summer mortality. However, climate indices successfully explain a part of the interannual variability in the maximum summer mortality. Overall, the best models are obtained with the time trend and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) used as covariates. No country has yet integrated teleconnection information in their heat-health watch and warning systems or adaptation plans. MDF modeling has the potential to be useful to public health managers for the planning and management of health services. It allows predicting future MDF curves for adaptive management using the values of the covariates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos will host the northern site of the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO), in an area about 200 m below the mountain rim, where the optical telescopes are located. The site currently hosts the MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov) telescopes, which have gathered a unique series of 20 yr of weather data. We use advanced profile-likelihood methods to determine seasonal cycles, the occurrence of weather extremes, weather downtime, and long-term trends correctly taking into account data gaps. The fractality of the weather data is investigated by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The data are published according to the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles. We find that the behaviour of wind and relative humidity show significant differences compared to the mountain rim. We observe an increase in temperature of |$0.55\pm 0.07\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm 0.07\mathrm{(syst.)}$| |$^{\circ }$| C decade−1, the diurnal temperature range of |$0.13\pm 0.04\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm 0.02\mathrm{(syst.)}$| |$^{\circ }$| C decade−1 (accompanied by an increase of seasonal oscillation amplitude of |$\Delta C_m=0.29\pm 0.10\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm 0.04\mathrm{(syst.)}$| |$^{\circ }$| C decade−1), and relative humidity of |$4.0\pm 0.4\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm 1.1\mathrm{(syst.)}$|  per cent decade−1, and a decrease in trade wind speeds of |$0.85\pm 0.12\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm 0.07\mathrm{(syst.)}$|  (km h−1) decade−1. The occurrence of extreme weather, such as tropical storms and long rains, remains constant over time. We find a significant correlation of temperature with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and multifractal behaviour of the data. The site shows a weather-related downtime of 18.5 per cent–20.5 per cent, depending on the wind gust limits employed. No hints are found of a degradation of weather downtime under the assumption of a linear evolution of environmental parameters over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Guangdong Province (WGDP) in China, influenced by both the East Asian and the Indian summer monsoon, is a pivotal region for exploring the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) evolution. So far, there still lacks detail studies on late Holocene climatic/environmental changes here. In this study, multiple magnetic parameters were measured on the lake sediments of Hedong section in this area. Results indicated a dominance of pseudo-single-domain detrital (titano-)magnetite or maghemite mixed with paramagnetic and anti-ferromagnetic minerals in sediments, and the impacts of authigenic greigite, bacterial activity, post-depositional dissolution, and dilution effects were trivial. Changes in rainfall-induced surface erosion intensity were determined as a role in sediment magnetic properties. Intensified surface erosion deduced by increased rainfall favored enhanced concentrations and more coarse-grained magnetic minerals in sediments, and vice versa. Thus, the magnetic parameters can be used to reflect varying ASM strength in the past ~4300 years. They revealed four relatively humid (strengthened ASM) (i.e., 4300–4000 cal. yr BP, 3500–3130 cal. yr BP, 2640–1950 cal. yr BP, and 1250–850 cal. yr BP), and three dry periods (weakened ASM) (i.e., 4000–3500 cal. yr BP, 3130–2640 cal. yr BP, and 1950–1250 cal. yr BP) which coincided with the Bond events 3, 2, and 1 respectively. In combination with the three significant cycles (i.e., 1250-, 75-, and 65-year) revealed by spectral analysis on SIRM record, we inferred both the external forcing (e.g., solar activity) and internal hemispheric-scale atmospheric processes (e.g., ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation) have played an integral role in late Holocene climate changes in the study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December and January, the pressure contrast between the subtropical plains of South America (CHA) and northwestern Africa (WEM) reaches its maximum. This happens because of simultaneous and opposite surface pressure variations in these two regions. The low tropospheric winds flow from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia and then divert southwards into the Gran Chaco region, suggesting a possible strengthening of this circulation associated with the CHA-WEM gradient. This article analyses the effect of a cross-equatorial CHA-WEM gradient intensification on the monsoon system of South America. The reinforcement of the gradient is associated with increased easterlies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, a stronger low-level jet east of the Andes, increased moisture transport towards the CHA region, and reduced precipitation over much of Brazil. The large quasi-stationary wave in the upper troposphere, consisting of the Bolivian High and the Nordeste Low, weakens in amplitude, altering the return flow to the North Atlantic. Extratropical dynamics, such as Rossby wave trains that reach southern South America and the North Atlantic Oscillation, affect the variability in the CHA and WEM regions and modulate the CHA-WEM gradient intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a framework to assess climate variability and change through atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) and their link with regional processes across time scales. We evaluate the CP impacts on daily rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula using sea level pressure (SLP) during 1950–2022. Different sensitivity analyses are performed, employing multiple spatial domains and number of patterns. An optimal classification is found in midlatitudes, centered over the Mediterranean basin and covering part of the North Atlantic Ocean, which can identify atmospheric configurations significantly related to discriminated rainfall and temperature anomalies, with clear seasonal behavior. The temporal variability of CPs is studied across time scales showing, e.g., that transitions between patterns are faster in autumn and spring, and that CPs exhibit distinct temporal variability at intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales, including significant long-term trends on their frequency. CPs influence temperature and precipitation variations throughout the year. The winter season exhibits the largest atmospheric circulation variability, while the summer is dominated by persistent high-pressure structures—the subtropical Azores high—leading to warm and dry conditions. Based on an interannual correlation analysis, some CPs are significantly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), stronger during winter, indicating the NAO modulation on the regional-to-local climatic features. Overall, this approach arises as a dynamic cross-time-scale framework that can be adapted to specific user needs and levels of regional detail, being useful to study climate drivers for climate change and to perform a process-based evaluation of climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the relationship between large-scale climatic drivers and streamflow of the Chalakudy River Basin, Kerala, was analysed using methods such as bivariate wavelet coherence (BWC), multiple wavelet coherence (MWC), and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) analysis. The four prominent global climate indices chosen are the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along with other local climate drivers. The BWC analysis showed that streamflow and rainfall had a very strong in-phase relationship, whereas the maximum temperature and average temperature showed an anti-phase relationship. In the case of global climate drivers, ENSO has a significant impact on the streamflow of the Chalakudy River Basin. The average wavelet coherence (AWC), which quantifies the teleconnections, confirms the observation with a high coherency of 0.75 between streamflow and rainfall and 0.51 for streamflow and ENSO. Streamflow prediction models were developed using random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques by considering the influence of significant global and local climatic drivers. It was observed that the RF model performed slightly better than the ANN model, with R = 0.875, NSE = 0.766, RMSE = 23.468, and RSR = 0.524. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent fluctuations in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic (NATL) jet stream are closely linked to extreme weather anomalies, particularly over Europe. Accurately representing jet stream persistence in climate models is essential for enhancing the reliability of future regional extreme weather projections. This study investigates the summer persistence of the NATL jet stream latitudinal fluctuations and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) using data from CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 models generally overestimate persistence compared to ERA5 during the historical period. Utilizing the relative vorticity tendency equation, we assess the strength of the eddy‐mean flow feedback and identify a positive relationship between persistence and feedback strength across models. We also found that a large fraction of the intermodel spread in precipitation persistence is associated with differences in the persistence of jet fluctuations. Plain Language Summary: The NATL jet stream plays a crucial role in shaping the weather and climate over the NATL and European regions. The jet continuously fluctuates in latitude and strength and guides the storms along its path. When these fluctuations become unusually persistent, they can lock certain weather patterns in place for extended periods, leading to extreme events such as droughts or floods. In this study, we investigate the persistence of the summer NATL jet stream latitudinal fluctuations and that of the SNAO using models and the ERA5 reanalysis. We found that the strength of the eddy‐mean flow feedback explains a large fraction of the intermodel differences in jet persistence. Moreover, we found that differences in jet persistence are closely associated with differences in precipitation persistence over Europe. Key Points: CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the persistence of summer jet latitudinal fluctuations and the Summer North Atlantic OscillationThere is a robust positive relationship across models between the SNAO vorticity anomalies and the strength of the eddy‐mean flow feedbackA significant portion of the intermodel spread in precipitation persistence is linked to jet fluctuations persistence differences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ocean memory framework is proposed to reveal the atmosphere's influence on ocean temperatures. Anomalous atmospheric forcing alters the ocean state through two mechanisms: short‐term, local effects involving air− ${-}$sea heat fluxes and Ekman circulation, and long‐term, far‐field effects involving changes from overturning and gyre circulations. The framework employs the Green function's method to incorporate both effects, enabling the quantification of ocean memory and the contribution of atmospheric forcing to ocean thermal variability. The framework is employed to examine the North Atlantic Oscillation's (NAO) influence on the North Atlantic Ocean variability, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with its memory estimated to be 10–20 $10\mbox{--}20$ years. The NAO and variability in the North Atlantic jet speed explain up to 30% of ocean decadal variability, primarily driven by temporal changes in ocean heat transport. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in ocean temperatures cannot be accurately modeled solely as a passive response to stochastic atmospheric forcing. Plain Language Summary: The atmosphere and ocean are intricately linked, with the ever‐changing atmosphere driving fluctuations in ocean temperatures. However, the atmosphere changes much faster than the ocean due to their different timescales and the ocean's ability to store excess heat for many years commonly referred to as ocean memory. As a consequence, isolating and understanding how short‐term atmospheric variations influence long‐term fluctuations in ocean temperatures, particularly on decadal timescales, can be difficult. To address this challenge, we introduce an ocean memory framework that allows us to analyze and quantify the atmosphere's contribution to ocean variability. We apply this framework to study how the North Atlantic Oscillation, a major atmospheric pattern in the northern hemisphere, influences decadal fluctuations in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean temperatures. We estimate the ocean memory timescale in the subpolar North Atlantic to be about 10–20 $10\mbox{--}20$ years, which is how long temperature anomalies persist, while being redistributed, in the ocean before dissipating. Key Points: New ocean memory framework accounts for local response due to air‐sea fluxes and far‐field response due to ocean circulationThe framework is employed to quantify subpolar North Atlantic Ocean thermal variability due to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)The framework captures the sign reversal in the correlation between the NAO and ocean temperatures across seasonal to decadal timescales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal winter of 2022/23 was notable as a third consecutive winter in which La Niña had an influence on the European weather. The GloSea6 seasonal forecast system predicted a blocked circulation pattern in the North Atlantic in early winter (December), and then a transition through mid‐winter (January) into a more zonal pattern in late winter (February), consistent with the canonical La Niña teleconnection pattern seen previously. The seasonal forecast for the UK was an increased likelihood of near average temperatures, and drier‐ and calmer‐than‐average conditions. Both the predicted broad‐scale circulation patterns and UK winter mean weather conditions verified well against observations, and we show that seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last 10 winters show similar skill to previously reported hindcasts. Throughout the winter, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was particularly active. On three occasions, it exhibited strong phases 6 and 7. There was also a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred on 16th February. This was followed by colder conditions and associated impacts similar to the canonical negative NAO response over the UK, although the main impact fell in March and so did not affect the winter (December–January–February) mean conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce an novel approach to compare Earth System Model output using a causality-based approach. The method is based on the PCMCI+ algorithm, which identifies causal relationships between multiple variables. We aim to investigate the causal relationships between atmospheric (North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO), oceanic (gyre strength, stratification, circulation), and biogeochemical variables (nitrate, iron, silicate, net primary production) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, a critical region for the global climate system with a well characterised multi-year variability in physical and biogeochemical properties in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation. We test a specific multivariate conceptual scheme, involving causal links between these variables. Applying the PCMCI+ method allows us to differentiate between the influence of vertical mixing and horizontal advection on nutrient concentrations, spring bloom intensity, as well as to highlight model-specific dynamics. The analysis of the causal links suggests a dominant contribution of vertical mixing to peak spring bloom intensity compared to transport. The strength of the links is variable among models. Stratification is identified as an important factor controlling spring bloom NPP in some, but not all, models. Horizontal transport also significantly influences biogeochemistry. However, horizontal transport generally exhibits lower contributions than vertical mixing. Most of the links found are model-specific, hence likely contributing to inter-model spread. The limitations of the method are discussed and directions for future research are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unified clustering framework based on pattern correlation is used to identify eight blocking regimes over Eurasia and surrounding oceans during the winter months (December–March) of 1948–2021. The regimes are labeled based on their centers of action, which are located over the West Atlantic, Greenland, the East Atlantic, Scandinavia, the Ural Mountains and Siberia, the Okhotsk Sea, the Bering Strait, and the North Pacific. It should be noted that the classification is almost insensitive to the time period but mainly depends on the percentage of different blocking events. The spatial distributions of cold surges differ substantially among these eight regimes. Due mainly to the cold advection downstream of the centers of blocking activities, cold surges can be observed over parts of the Eurasian continent. Possible relationships between the eight blocking regimes and large‐scale modes of climate variability, including the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, are explored. Not only contemporary connections but also the predictive value of large‐scale modes is discussed. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric blocking, an important circulation system in middle and high latitudes, has significant local and upstream/downstream impacts on weather and short‐term climate. Since blockings with diverse occurrence locations affect different regions, it is necessary to classify them by a unified framework. In this study, a clustering method based on pattern correlations is adopted to identify wintertime blocking regimes over Eurasia and surrounding oceans to establish their connections with the corresponding spatial distribution of cold surges. The clustering result is almost insensitive to the time period, which mainly depends on the percentage of blocking events located at different regions. We also examine the large‐scale climate background for each regime to provide a reference for the cold surge forecast over the Eurasian continent. Key Points: Eight wintertime blocking regimes over Eurasia and surrounding oceans are revealed by a clustering methodBlocking activities induce cold surges over parts of the Eurasian continent due to downstream cold advectionThe cluster regimes are almost insensitive to the time period [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is strongest in the North Atlantic, where it resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unexpectedly, these 1-year lagged teleconnections are at least as strong as the better-known simultaneous winter connections. However, the 1-year lagged response is opposite in sign to the simultaneous response such that 1 year later, El Niño is followed by a positive NAO, whereas La Niña is followed by a negative NAO. The lagged response may also interfere with simultaneous ENSO teleconnections. We show here that these effects are unlikely to be caused by residual aliasing of ENSO cycles; rather, slowly migrating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies explain both the sign and the timing of the extratropical response. Our results have implications for understanding ENSO teleconnections, explaining observed extratropical climate variability and interpreting seasonal to inter annual climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to investigate long-term (1969-2023) variability and trends in annual mean daily discharge (AMDD) and seasonal mean daily discharge (SMDD) in 10 rivers throughout Northern Finland in connection to climate teleconnections. The lowest AMDDs were mostly recorded during the first 12 years (1969-1980) of our study period, while the highest ones were during the last 12 years (2012-2023). Significant trends in AMDD were found only in three natural rivers of Tornionjoki, Simojoki, and Kuivajoki during 1969-2023. Such variations and trends in AMDD were most significantly associated with the Scandinavia (SCA) pattern, which is also an influential climate teleconnection for annual precipitation anomalies across Northern Finland. The highest (lowest) SMDDs were experienced in spring (winter). Only increasing trends in SMDD were statistically significant (p,0.05). Such substantial increases in SMDDs were detected in winter, spring, and summer (autumn) in association with the Arctic Oscillation or AO and the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO (East Atlantic/West Russia or EA/WR). Generally speaking, recent milder and wetter climatic conditions in association with strong positive AO and NAO (negative EA/WR) phases could increase SMDD for winter, spring, and summer (autumn) seasons. Hence, both AMDD and SMDD in rivers throughout Northern Finland were primarily influenced by precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) is traditionally defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP) anomalies during winter. Previous studies have shown that the Pacific centre‐of‐action of the NAM is typically more amplified in models than in reanalysis. Here, we analyse the NAM in hindcasts from nine seasonal prediction models over 1993/1994–2016/2017. In all the models, the Pacific centre‐of‐action is much larger than in reanalysis over that period, during which the NAM and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are almost indistinguishable. As a result, the NAM in the models is correlated with Aleutian Low variability around four times more strongly than in reanalysis. We show that this discrepancy can be explained primarily by the amplitude of Aleutian Low variability, which is on average 17% higher in models than in reanalysis, with a secondary effect from a stronger correlation between the Aleutian Low and NAO. When the NAM is computed using zonally averaged MSLP, the Aleutian Low amplitude does not influence the pattern directly. Instead, the amplitude of the Pacific centre‐of‐action is governed primarily by the correlation between the Aleutian Low and NAO, reducing the apparent Pacific biases in models. While the two methods yield almost identical results in reanalysis, the large Aleutian Low biases result in differences when applied to model data. Modifying the MSLP statistically to alter the Aleutian Low amplitude reveals that the spatial pattern of the traditionally defined NAM is highly sensitive to Aleutian Low variability, even without modifying the correlation between the Aleutian Low and NAO. Hence, the NAM in models may not be as biased as the traditional method would suggest. We therefore conclude that the traditional EOF method is unsuitable for defining the NAM in the presence of highly amplified Aleutian Low variability, and encourage the use of the zonal‐mean method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site‐specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El‐Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the North Atlantic and the Northern Ocean, from the second half of 2010 to 2014, satellite imagery data showed increased surface water temperatures (in the Icelandic Depression area in September–October 2010, it was 1.3 °C higher than in 2009). The peak of the annual sum of mean monthly ocean surface temperatures near the Icelandic Depression in 2010 (109.3 °C), as well as the negative values of the monthly averaged North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, estimated in the second half of 2010 and until March 2011, can be explained by the appearance of an additional film of oil origin on the water surface, formed after an oil spill accident at the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico. Insufficient evaporative cooling of surface waters near the Icelandic Depression related to the formation of an additive film due to the influence of pollution of the North Sea by oil can explain the earlier peak in the annual sum of mean monthly ocean surface temperatures near the Icelandic Depression in 2003 (107.2 °C). Although global warming is usually ascribed to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, ocean surface water pollution could increase the heat content of the ocean and explain the steady temperature stratification and desalination of these waters due to the melting of Greenland's glaciers. Thus, when analyzing the concept of global warming, it is necessary to take into account the aspects of pollution of the ocean surface waters to assess the changes in their capacity to accumulate solar radiation, as well as the changes in the heat content of the ocean mixing zone (~200 m). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research presents a comprehensive drought analysis using climate data obtained from 219 homogeneously distributed meteorological stations in Türkiye between 1991 and 2022. In this context, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) drought indices were used and comparative analysis was made. Türkiye. The study demonstrates that below-normal precipitation over extended periods and increasing temperatures have contributed to the increased frequency of meteorological drought events. Türkiye's topographic conditions, particularly its location in the Mediterranean basin, significantly influence drought occurrences. It is noted that over the past 20 years, Türkiye has been trending towards drier conditions, with rising temperatures reinforcing this trend. The study observes that the moderate drought class range is the most frequently recurring in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI methods utilized. Regarding atmospheric conditions affecting the climate in Türkiye, it is observed that increased drought severity stands out prominently in years when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. During these years, increased drought severity is evident in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices, particularly in winter and autumn, while a wide area experiences drought effects in the summer months. Long-term analyses emphasize that drought periods occur less frequently but have more prolonged impacts, attributed to variations in precipitation patterns from year to year and the influence of rising temperatures due to global climate change. The potential future increase in drought in the Mediterranean basin due to global climate change and Türkiye's vulnerability to this situation could have adverse effects on water resources, food security, energy sources, and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash droughts (FDs) are distinguished by a rapid development associated with strong precipitation deficits and/or increases in atmospheric evaporative demand in the short‐term, but little is known about the atmospheric conditions underlying these events. In this study, we analyse for the first time the atmospheric dynamics involved in the development of FDs in Spain over the period 1961–2018. FDs are related to large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the region, in particular with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is the main atmospheric driver of FDs in winter and autumn, and it is essential in explaining FD development in spring. We also found that FDs are typically linked to strong positive anomalies in 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure over the region during the weeks prior to the onset. At the synoptic scale, the most common weather types (WTs) recorded during the development of FDs are Anticyclonic Western (ANT_W_AD), East (E_AD) and Northeast (NE_AD) advection, and Anticyclonic (ANTICYC). In particular, ANTICYC WT is the main atmospheric driver of FDs in summer. Ridging conditions occur frequently during FDs in all seasons, being the most important factor controlling FD development in spring. Likewise, we noted that some of the FDs recorded in summer are related to and/or exacerbated by Saharan air intrusions associated with pronounced ridges. The results of this research have important implications for the understanding, monitoring and prediction of FDs in Spain, providing a detailed assessment of the main atmospheric dynamics involved in FD triggering at different spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An investigation of Lake Vransko, located on the island of Cres in the Adriatic Sea, was performed in order to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental changes that occurred during the late Holocene, based on diatoms. Fluctuations in the lake level were mostly driven by the intensification of climatic oscillations (wet periods during North Atlantic Oscillation intervals and summer drought during Azores High intervals) and anthropogenic influences (e.g. the extraction of drinking water). The anthropogenic impact of local deforestation is encountered, associated with a peak in phosphorous in the deeper parts of the lake cores. As a consequence of these impacts ten diatom abundance zones (DZs) and the water/sediment interface (WSI) were recorded from the deeper core (CS-51) and two from the shallower (CS-52) core, along with the WSI, based on which an abrupt fluctuation in the level of the lake was interpreted. A dominance of Epithemia adnata in the deeper core, and Gomphonema pumilum in the CS-51, and in the CS-52 indicated a shallow phase connected with the summer drought recorded in the lake. A dominance of Amphora inariensis , Pseudostaurosira spp., Cyclotella spp. and Pantocsekiella ocellata in the rest of the cores indicated deeper, more alkaline lake conditions during the wet periods. The DZs accord with depth variations in Adriatic coastal lakes that are key sites of more extreme recent changes in the local climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability of snowfall frequency over the Eurasian continent during autumn and winter, and explores the underlying physical mechanisms. The first EOF mode (EOF1) of snowfall frequency during autumn is mainly characterized by positive anomalies over the Central Siberian Plateau (CSP) and Europe, with opposite anomalies over Central Asia (CA). EOF1 during winter is characterized by positive anomalies in Siberia and negative anomalies in Europe and East Asia (EA). During autumn, EOF1 is associated with the anomalous sea ice in the Kara–Laptev seas (KLS) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic. Increased sea ice in the KLS may cause an increase in the meridional air temperature gradient, resulting in increased synoptic-scale wave activity, thereby inducing increased snowfall frequency over Europe and the CSP. Anomalous increases of both sea ice in the KLS and SST in the North Atlantic may stimulate downstream propagation of Rossby waves and induce an anomalous high in CA corresponding to decreased snowfall frequency. In contrast, EOF1 is mainly affected by the anomalous atmospheric circulation during winter. In the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an anomalous deep cold low (warm high) occurs over Siberia (Europe) leading to increased (decreased) snowfall frequency over Siberia (Europe). The synoptic-scale wave activity excited by the positive NAO can induce downstream Rossby wave propagation and contribute to an anomalous high and descending motion over EA, which may inhibit snowfall. The NAO in winter may be modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole and sea ice in the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas in autumn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This systematic review, based on an adaptation of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement from 2020, focuses on studies of the atmospheric mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal, as well as observed trends and projections. The 54 selected articles cover the period from 2000 to 2024, in which the most used keywords are "portugal" and "extreme precipitation". Of the 54, 23 analyse trends and climate projections of precipitation events, confirming a decrease in total annual precipitation, especially in autumn and spring, accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in autumn, spring and winter. Several articles (twelve) analyse the relationship between synoptic-scale circulation and heavy precipitation, using an atmospheric circulation types approach. Others (two) establish the link with teleconnection patterns, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and still others (three) explore the role of atmospheric rivers. Additionally, five articles focus on evaluating databases and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, and nine articles focus on precipitation-related extreme weather events, such as tornadoes, hail and lightning activity. Despite significant advances in the study of extreme precipitation events in Portugal, there is still a lack of studies on hourly or sub-hourly scales, which is critical to understanding mesoscale, short-lived events. Several studies show NWP models still have limitations in simulating extreme precipitation events, especially in complex orography areas. Therefore, a better understanding of such events is fundamental to promoting continuous improvements in operational weather forecasting and contributing to more reliable forecasts of such events in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies during 1980–2021, including the linear trends, periodicities, and their variabilities on both global and basin-wise scales. An increasing trend in the annual number of global TCs is identified, with a significant rising trend in the numbers of tropical storms (maximum sustained wind 35   k t s ≤ U m a x < 64   k t s ) and intense typhoons ( U m a x ≥ 96   k t s ) and a deceasing trend for weak typhoons ( 64   k t s ≤ U m a x < 96   k t s ). There is no statistically significant trend shown in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). On a regional scale, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP) are the regions of the first- and second-largest numbers of TCs, respectively, while the increased TC activity in the North Atlantic (NA) contributes the most to the global increase in TCs. It is revealed in the wavelet transformation for periodicity analysis that the variations in the annual number of TCs with different intensities mostly show an inter-annual period of 3–7 years and an inter-decadal one of 10–13 years. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are consistent with those in the ENSO-related ocean drivers (via the Niño 3.4 index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The inter-decadal variation in 10–13 years is also observed in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, on the other hand, present the same inter-annual period of 7–10 years as that in the frequencies of all the named TCs in the NA. Further, the correlations between TC frequencies and ocean drivers are also quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. These findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of TC activity, thereby facilitating efforts to predict particular TC activity and mitigate the inflicted damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability originates from a large number of interacting processes with multiple time scales, with dominant processes dependent on both the latitude and timescale of interest. Here, we isolate the optimal atmospheric modes driving climate‐relevant decadal AMOC variability using a novel approach combining dynamical and statistical attribution (dynamics‐weighted principal component, or DPC analysis). We find that for both the subpolar (55°N) and subtropical (25°N) AMOC, the most effective independent mode of heat flux forcing closely resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation, and drives meridionally coherent AMOC anomalies through western boundary density anomalies. Conversely, established modes of wind stress variability possess limited quantitative similarity to the optimal wind stress patterns, which generate low‐frequency AMOC fluctuations by rearranging the ocean buoyancy field. We demonstrate (by running a modified version of the ECCOv4r4 state estimate) that most AMOC variability on decadal time scales can be explained by the DPCs. Plain Language Summary: The heat‐redistributing north‐south "overturning" circulation of the Atlantic Ocean is uniquely influential on climate, driven in part by chaotic atmospheric patterns of heat and wind that impart unpredictable variability into its strength. This study uses a novel modeling technique that combines the statistics of historical atmospheric data with the physics of the overturning circulation to uncover the distinct atmospheric patterns that most effectively stimulate this variability. We deduce that slow fluctuations in the overturning circulation are best forced by heat inputs that follow the shape of the well‐known North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. However, we also uncover two new patterns of wind (one most effective nearer the equator, one nearer the Arctic) that lead to a strong, delayed response in the overturning circulation. Removing these atmospheric patterns from the a simulation of recent ocean history results in a substantial drop in the intensity of overturning fluctuations. Key Points: The leading surface patterns forcing decadal AMOC variability are identified using a hybrid dynamical‐‐statistical attribution techniqueThe leading heat flux pattern is independent of AMOC latitude, drives up to 81% of AMOC variability, and is closely related to the NAOLeading wind stress patterns forcing AMOC are distinct from the NAO and differ for subtropical and subpolar AMOC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change‐driven impacts on vegetation productivity have been shown to drive mammalian herbivore population dynamics in Arctic and alpine environments. However, there is less evidence for temperate systems. To address this, we examined the contribution of increasing plant biomass in different vegetation communities (measured by NDVI, normalised difference vegetation index) and winter weather on the observed long‐term upward trend in the population of the Soay sheep of Hirta, St Kilda, UK. We found that biomass had increased in all vegetation communities present and increased the fastest in vegetation types preferred by the sheep. Specifically, those communities with high specific leaf area and Ellenberg's N, low leaf dry matter content. Peak summer NDVI and either winter average wind speed or winter North Atlantic Oscillation data added to the variance explained by a simple density dependence model of yearly sheep population growth rates. The highest explanatory power was found for preferred vegetation types including maritime cliff communities dominated by Plantago species, but also for both inaccessible (Rumex acetosa‐dominated) or unpreferred (Eriophorum vaginatum‐ or Sphagnum‐dominated) communities where seasonal variation more closely reflects productivity due to minimal grazing. Although the climate is getting windier and wetter, it is also getting warmer allowing increased plant productivity and this appears to be behind the long‐term increases in the Soay sheep population. Our study indicates that analysing key vegetation communities may reveal these links better than using landscape‐level averages, and that oceanic‐temperate systems may show similar climate‐driven herbivore population trends to those reported in Arctic and alpine systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the predictability drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during boreal winter at seasonal time scales remains challenging. This study uses large ensembles with the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system to investigate the relative impact of tropical Indian and Pacific heating on NAO predictability by examining the tropical forcing, teleconnection pathways, and sources of uncertainty. We select three case studies ‐ 1997/98, 2015/16 and 2019/20 ‐ with strong Indian Ocean heating anomalies, but with different El Niño conditions. We show that in 2019/20, with neutral ENSO conditions, Indian Ocean SSTs favor a positive NAO response via stratospheric and tropospheric pathways. In the cases with strong El Niño, we find contrasting results: in 1997/98, the Pacific forcing dominates, producing a negative NAO. In 2015/16, despite the strong El Niño, the Indian Ocean forcing dominates, leading to a positive NAO via intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). While the stratospheric pathway exhibits varying responses to Indian Ocean forcing ‐ being weaker in 1997/98 and strongest in 2015/16, the Indian Ocean‐related tropospheric pathway remains robust along the Pacific subtropical jet across years. However, there is destructive interference between teleconnections from Indian and Pacific SST anomalies in both the tropospheric and stratospheric pathways. The competing effects of tropical heating in both basins, uncertainties in the Rossby wave response to tropical heating and SPV variability contribute to uncertainty in seasonal NAO predictions. The flow‐dependent nature of the stratospheric pathway underscores the complexity of seasonal forecast predictability, and the existence of windows of opportunity. Plain Language Summary: The NAO is a phenomenon that manifests as a pressure see‐saw in the North Atlantic, affecting the seasonal climate in many parts of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we demonstrate that the predictability of the phases of the NAO can be affected by the remote and opposing influence of surface temperatures in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans, which propagate via the troposphere and stratosphere. This interplay, in turn, contributes to the uncertainty of seasonal forecasts of the NAO. Key Points: Large ensemble seasonal forecasts reveal a predictable link between tropical heating and the NAO via a flow‐dependent stratospheric pathwayThe impact of Indian Ocean heating on the NAO can be stronger than that of El Niño in the presence of an anomalously strong stratospheric pathwayCompetition between basins, flow‐dependent response, and intrinsic variability contribute to the uncertainty in seasonal forecasts of NAO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the variability and trends in 115 years (1909–2023) of daily precipitation observed at three hydrometeorological stations in southern (Kaisaniemi), central (Kajaani), and northern (Sodankylä) Finland. We also identified the most significant climate teleconnections influencing daily precipitation variability at these three stations during the period 1951–2023. The daily precipitation records were primarily classified into six grades, including very light (≤1 mm), light (1–≤5 mm), moderate (5–≤10 mm), heavy (10–≤15 mm), very heavy (15–≤20 mm), and extreme (>20 mm). On average, the most intense daily precipitation was determined at the Kaisaniemi station in southern Finland. At this station, however, very light and light precipitation showed the lowest frequency, but other graded daily precipitation events were the most frequent. At all three stations, the intensity of very light precipitation significantly declined during the past 115 years, while its frequency increased. The highest rates of such decreases and increases in the intensity and frequency of very light daily precipitation were found at the Sodankylä stations in northern Finland, respectively, but the lowest rates were at the Kaisaniemi station in the south. At the Kajaani station in central Finland, the intensity of light precipitation decreased, but very heavy precipitation intensified. At this station, however, the number of both moderate and heavy precipitation events increased over time. Finally, historical variations in both the intensity and frequency of graded daily precipitation events in Finland showed significant relationships with different climate teleconnections, particularly the Scandinavia (SCAND) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dust significantly influences global weather and climate by impacting the Earth's radiative balance. Based on reanalysis datasets, this study explores how the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during winter impact dust activities in North China in the following spring. It is found that both the NAO and the ENSO significantly affect dust activities in North China, especially during their negative phases. When both are in their negative phases, their combined impact on dust activities exceeds that of each factor individually. The previous winter's NAO notably affects sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic, associated with an anomalous tripole SST pattern. These SST anomalies persist into the following spring due to their inherent persistence, inducing an anomalous atmospheric teleconnection wave train that influences dust activities in North China. The ENSO, on the one hand, directly impacts dust activities in North China by modulating circulation over the western North Pacific. Moreover, the ENSO enhances the NAO's effect on North Atlantic SST, which explains the synergistic effects of the ENSO and NAO on dust activities in North China. This study elucidates the combined role of the NAO and ENSO in influencing dust activities in North China, providing one-season-ahead signals for predicting spring dust activities in North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming progresses, changes in high-latitude precipitation are expected to impart long-lasting impacts on Earth systems, including glacier mass balance and ecosystem structures. Reconstructing past changes in high-latitude precipitation and hydroclimate from networks of continuous lake records offers one way to improve forecasts of precipitation and precipitation–evaporation balances, but these reconstructions are currently hindered by the incomplete understanding of controls on lake and soil water isotopes. Here, we study the distribution of modern water isotopes in Icelandic lakes, streams, and surface soils collected in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2019, and 2020 to understand the geographic, geomorphic, and environmental controls on their regional and interannual variability. We find that lake water isotopes in open-basin (through-flowing) lakes reflect local precipitation, with biases toward the cold season, particularly in lakes with sub-annual residence times. Closed-basin lakes have water isotope and deuterium excess values consistent with evaporative enrichment. Interannual and seasonal variabilities of lake water isotopes at repeatedly sampled sites are consistent with instrumental records of winter snowfall; summer relative humidity; and atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Summer surface soil water isotopes span the entire range of seasonal precipitation values in Iceland and appear to be consistently overprinted by evaporative enrichment, which can occur throughout the year, although the sampling depths were shallower than rooting depths for many plant types. This dataset provides new insight into the functionality of water isotopes in Icelandic environments and offers renewed possibilities for optimized site selection and proxy interpretation in future paleohydrological studies on this North Atlantic outpost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Jenkinson‐Collison Weather Typing (JC‐WT) method uses sea‐level pressure gradients to create 27 types based on the geostrophic flow and vorticity around any extratropical target location. Typically, JC‐WTs are applied over specific locations or limited domains, thus hampering the understanding of the impact of large‐scale mechanisms on regional climate. This study explores the links between regional climate variability, as represented by the JC‐WTs, and large‐scale phenomena, to describe the synoptic‐scale variability in the North Atlantic‐European region and evaluate the JC‐WT methodology. Large‐scale circulation is here characterized by major atmospheric low‐frequency modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic and the Scandinavian teleconnection indices, and by atmospheric blockings. Results show that JC‐WTs coherently capture the spatial and temporal variability of the large‐scale modes and yields a characteristic response to blocking events. Overall, our results underpin the exploratory potential of this method for the analysis of the near‐surface circulation. These findings endorse the use of JC‐WTs and support the reliability and utility of the JC‐WT classification for process‐based model assessments and model selection, a crucial task for climate impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) has an important local and remote influence on global climate through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture. As a result of climate forcing, significant changes occur in the SSTs, which result in many natural disasters such as supercharged storms, higher wind speeds, heavier precipitation and flooding. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes and underlying atmospheric mechanisms of the Black Sea (BLS) surface temperature. For this purpose, National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) high‐resolution SST data (0.25°), which were verified with buoy observations, were used for the period 1982–2021. To investigate the circulation impacts, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) phases and SSTs of the western BLS (WBLS) and eastern BLS (EBLS) was analysed. According to the results, SST values increased from 1.64°C (in winter) to 2.52°C (in summer) during the 40‐year period. Significant SST increases are shown in the EBLS during the summer and fall months. Statistically significant negative correlations (p < 0.05) were found between EA/WR and winter (r = −0.57) and summer (r = −0.56) SSTs in the EBLS. During winter, surface high located in the eastern Anatolia causes southerly winds, which blows from the terrestrial areas to the EBLS and result in above‐normal SST values. During summer (under negative EA/WR phases), the Azores high‐pressure centre extends to the Balkan Peninsula and WBLS and as a consequence, a significant amount of moisture associated with high sea surface temperature (>27°C, above‐normal 2.0°C) develops low‐level moisture convergence. Proper synoptic conditions, strong instability conditions between the surface and upper levels, and orographic forcing enable the occurrence of convective cloud cells. The movement of these cells to the northeastern part of Turkiye by strong northwesterly winds causes extreme precipitation and associated flash‐flood events in a limited area where land–sea interaction occurs (i.e., Artvin, Rize and Hopa provinces of Turkiye). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, much evidence has been presented on the 4.2 ka event. A review of 317 palaeoclimate papers shows that dry conditions were common during the event, especially from Eastern Mediterranean to India. The 4.2 ka event was not, however, a global drought event. Wet conditions were reported especially for central/northern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. The 4.2 ka event is typically characterized either as short (4.2–4.0 ka) or long (4.4–3.8 ka) episode, possibly developing over an extended interval of time, in keeping with the North Atlantic forcing and correlating with the Bond 3 event of ice-rafted debris. This forcing is understood to drive a southward migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in decreased rainfall over most of the Asian monsoon region, with possibility that an interplay of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has modulated the global circulation. Cold conditions were also reported but less frequently, in comparison to other Bond events such as the 8.2 ka event, Dark Ages Cold Period and Little Ice Age. Some high-resolution records show a double peak structure of which two anomalies are tree-ring dated to 4.14–4.05 ka and 3.97 ka. Accurately and precisely dated high-resolution records indicative of various climatic variables, especially outside of the traditional study region (Mediterranean–Middle East–India–China), including reconstructions of the ENSO and NAO histories and ITCZ migrations, are crucially needed for rigorous examination of the global scale characteristics of the 4.2 ka event and its forcings. Such research seems to be just beginning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Belrhaba, T.; Hakkou, M.; Rey, T.; Aangri, A.; Krien, Y.; Elmostafa, Z.; Leone, F., and Benmohammadi, A., 2024. Shoreline change and climatic variability along the Moulay Bousselham coast (Moroccan Atlantic). Journal of Coastal Research, 40(5), 860–874. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. Sandy coasts in Morocco are increasingly threatened by erosion. It is thus crucial to investigate the extent and causes of shoreline change to propose mitigation strategies to stakeholders. This study investigates the long-term shoreline dynamics of Moulay Bousselham (1949–2016) and its relationship with climate variability indices, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Oscillation, and West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA). The analysis, which employs geospatial techniques and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, reveals significant temporal and spatial variability in shoreline changes characterized by phases of erosion and accretion. The study identifies distinct periods of retreat and growth, highlighting the complex nature of coastal dynamics. The correlation analysis between wave parameters and climatic indices emphasizes the influential role of the WEPA index in controlling winter oceanic phenomena. The winter of 2013/14, marked by the highest WEPA, corresponds to the most energetic conditions in at least 70 years, underscoring the index's significance in understanding local climate variability. While acknowledging methodological challenges and uncertainties inherent in shoreline displacement calculations, the study establishes a noteworthy correlation between the WEPA index and shoreline dynamics. This research contributes valuable insights into the intricate interactions between climate variability and coastal evolution, emphasizing the need for refined methodologies and a comprehensive understanding of factors influencing shoreline changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic sea ice has undergone a significant decline in the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) since the late 1990s. Previous studies have shown that the decrease in sea ice caused by increased poleward moisture transport is modulated by tropical sea temperature changes (mainly referring to La Niña events). The occurrence of multi-year La Niña (MYLA) events has increased significantly in recent decades, and their impact on Arctic sea ice needs to be further explored. In this study, we investigate the relationship between sea-ice variation and different atmospheric diagnostics during MYLA and other La Niña (OTLA) years. The decline in BKS sea ice during MYLA winters is significantly stronger than that during OTLA years. This is because MYLA events tend to be accompanied by a warm Arctic–cold continent pattern with a barotropic high pressure blocked over the Urals region. Consequently, more frequent northward atmospheric rivers intrude into the BKS, intensifying longwave radiation downward to the underlying surface and melting the BKS sea ice. However, in the early winter of OTLA years, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation presents in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, which obstructs the atmospheric rivers to the south of Iceland. We infer that such a different response of BKS sea-ice decline to different La Niña events is related to stratospheric processes. Considering the rapid climate changes in the past, more frequent MYLA events may account for the substantial Arctic sea-ice loss in recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research article employs the continuous wavelet transform analysis to identify the climatological effects among various water quality parameters to identify the successfulness of upland stream restoration on the receiving mesohaline tidal creeks. Estuaries and their corresponding tidal creeks have been impacted by human anthropogenic influences for decades, allowing a variety of restoration practices to be implemented in upland streams. In the face of climate variability and continuous human development pressures, this research performs statistical analysis and a wavelet coherence on, before, and after stream restoration for water quality changes in Chesapeake Bay's tidal tributaries in the Lower Western Shore to identify if the restoration strategies have been effective in the mesohaline tidal creeks. Statistical analysis showed that currently, the receiving tidal basins are not seeing the required positive improvements in water quality after years of upland stream restoration. Compounding this is the fact climate variability cannot be ignored. Results indicate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has significant wavelet coherence with bottom dissolved oxygen, precipitation, and nutrients. This suggests that current restoration efforts may not be able to keep up with climate variability, and other techniques (restoration or policies) may need to be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Rural Water & Hydropower is the property of China Rural Water & Hydropower Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Based on a multi-dating and multi-proxy approach, we reconstruct Late Holocene environmental changes derived from sediments of Schweriner See, a large lowland lake in NE Germany, covering the past 3070 +170/-210 years cal BP. We infer variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems by combining in-lake productivity indicators obtained from traditional and high-resolution techniques (e.g. LOI 550 , TOC, inc / coh), diatom assemblages, and compound-specific hydrogen isotopes (δ2 H C25). Before 105 +95 / -75 cal BP (∼1850 CE), changes in productivity and the occurrence or disappearance of the diatom species Stephanocostis chantaicus reflect winter temperature variability, while variations in the compound-specific hydrogen isotopes suggest changes in the moisture source region. We observe distinct variations between (i) milder winter temperatures with a moisture source region in the southern–central North Atlantic and (ii) colder winter temperatures with a moisture source in the northern North Atlantic and/or Arctic regions. Such distinct variations in winter temperature and moisture source region are mainly modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This affects, among others, westerly wind strength and pathways and, thereby, winter temperature and moisture source region for northern central Europe. Besides these long-term shifts in atmospheric conditions, short-term variations in titanium can be linked to lake-level variability, most likely influenced by changes in precipitation and/or evaporation, and after the 12th century to anthropogenic impacts. Since 105 +95/-75 cal BP (∼1850 CE), productivity has been driven predominantly by nutrient availability related to anthropogenic activities masking the hydroclimatic signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change has profound effects on marine species, communities, and ecosystems. Among these impacts, small pelagics have emerged as valuable indicators for detecting regime shifts in fish stocks. They exhibit swift responses to changes in ocean variables, including decreased abundances, accelerated juvenile growth rates, early maturation, and reduced adult sizes in warm waters. However, each pelagic species occupies a unique local ecological niche, that reflects the sum of all environmental conditions. Consequently, their responses to environmental changes manifest in distinct ways. We explore here how global change affects small pelagics in the Madeira Archipelago (NE Atlantic Ocean) at (i) community level, by studying the effects of climate change over a 40-year (1980–2019) period on small pelagic landings, and (ii) population level, by studying the effects on the life-history traits of the two most abundant species, Scomber colias and Trachurus picturatus. Our study demonstrated that anomalies in the Sea Surface Temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation caused a regime shift within the small pelagic community. Both environmental predictors explained 88.9% of the community landings oscillations. S. colias appears to exhibit a relatively more favorable adaptive response to climate change compared to T. picturatus. Understanding the species-specific ecological responses of small pelagic fish to global change is crucial for effective management and conservation efforts in the face of ongoing environmental scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic oscillations affect fish population dynamics, ecological processes, and fishing operations in maritime habitats. This study examined how climatic oscillations affect catch rates for striped, blue, and silver marlins in the Atlantic Ocean. These oscillations are regarded as the primary factor influencing the abundance and accessibility of specific resources utilized by fishers. Logbook data were obtained from Taiwanese large-scale fishing vessels for climatic oscillations during the period 2005–2016. The results indicated that the effect of the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole on marlin catch rates did not have a lag, whereas those of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole had various lags. Pearson's correlation analysis was conducted to examine the correlations between atmospheric oscillation indices and marlin catch rates, and wavelet analysis was employed to describe the influences of the most relevant lags. The results indicated that annual atmospheric fluctuations and their lags affected the abundance and catchability of striped, blue, and silver marlins in the study region. This, in turn, may affect the presence of these species in the market and lead to fluctuations in their prices in accordance with supply and demand. Overall, understanding the effects of climatic oscillations on fish species are essential for policymakers and coastal communities seeking to manage marine resources, predict changes in marine ecosystems, and establish appropriate methods for controlling the effects of climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-lasting La Niña events (including double-year and triple-year La Niña events) have become more frequent in recent years. How the multi-year La Niña events affect tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific (WNP) and whether they differ from single-year La Niña events are unknown. Here we show that TCs are more active over the far-WNP (FWNP, 110°–150°E), leading to marked high risks at China coasts during the second decaying summer of double-year La Niña events. The anomalous TC activities are directly related to the enhanced cyclonic anomaly over the FWNP, possibly a result of large-scale remote forcing initiated by the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) cooling. The persistent TNA cooling from the decaying winter to summer of double-year La Niña events drives westerlies over the Indo-western Pacific through Kelvin waves, which induce the cooling over the north Indian Ocean via the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature effect, favoring the asymmetric heat distribution pattern and stimulating an anomalous vertical circulation over the eastern Indian Ocean to FWNP. The cooling over the north Indian Ocean also excites Gill responses, magnifying the TNA-induced westerlies and boosting the anomalous vertical circulation, and thus gives rise to the strong cyclonic circulation anomaly over the FWNP in summer. We suggest that the key point of the process is the strong TNA cooling related to the persistent negative Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while double-year La Niña events decay, distinct from the rapid decline of PNA and NAO during single-year La Niña events. The work provides a unique perspective on understanding TC activities over the WNP related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the long-term temporal patterns of sea level changes by analyzing monthly tide gauge data from 1950 to 2022 (42 to 72 years) along the European coastline and monthly altimetry data from 1992 to 2024 in the surrounding European seas. The primary focus is on signals with periods longer than 5 years. The application of wavelet-based approaches and multiresolution analysis has enabled the isolation of signals with periods of approximately 8 and 16 years. However, the latter has only been observed in tide gauge data, as the altimetry time series is not sufficiently long. The same analysis was applied to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices, which enabled the detection of the same signals. The reported multiyear signals of sea level are correlated with NAO and AMO indices, particularly during the period spanning from 1975 to 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well‐known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air‐sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale. Plain Language Summary: A significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) is widely recognized. However, this study found that the correlation between the two was significantly weakened in late winter during 1980–2001 while no such change was detected in early winter. Therefore, this paper will focus on the late winter and discuss the role of NAO spatial structure in the above correlation changes. When the NAO south center is located over the North Atlantic, both observations and the climate models indicate that the corresponding North Atlantic SST shows a significant tripole pattern. However, during 1980–2001, the NAO south center shift significantly eastward from the North Atlantic toward Western Europe (up to 20° longitude). At the same time, the NAO north center expanded eastward significantly. The eastward shift of the NAO results in the significant eastward shift of the turbulent heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Shift in the region of strong air‐sea interaction led to the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale and also provide implications for subseasonal‐seasonal predictions of Eurasian climate extremes. Key Points: The link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST weakened obviously during 1980–2001 late winter, which was not detected in early winterThe eastward shift of ∼20° longitude in NAO south center forced the strong air‐sea interactions region to shift in observations and CMIP6NAO's spatial shift in late winter caused the changes in the link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year‐to‐year contributions to multi‐model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well‐forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi‐model seasonal forecasting perspective. Plain Language Summary: The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are two important indicators of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic. They can have a substantial impact on European winter weather. The ability of seasonal forecast models to forecast the NAO and EA varies from year to year. This intermittency of forecast skill is investigated in seven different seasonal forecast systems from the Copernicus C3S database, by focusing on the most well‐forecast and poorly‐forecast years. Years where the NAO is well‐forecast are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Similar but weaker results hold for the EA. These results are valuable for increasing the usability of seasonal forecasts by identifying conditions under which forecasts are more likely to be skillful. Key Points: Seasonal forecast skill of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) is intermittentWell‐forecast NAO/EA winters generally occur when there is substantial tropical forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As nations progress, the impact of climate change on food prices becomes increasingly substantial. While the influence of climate change on the yields of major agricultural products is widely recognized, its specific effect on food prices remains uncertain. This study delves into the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a well-established climate indicator, on global food prices. To accomplish this, a robust bivariate Hurst exponent (robust bHe) is applied. The study employs a sliding windows approach across various time scales to produce a color map of this coefficient, presenting a time-varying version. Furthermore, variable-lag transfer entropy with a sliding windows approach is utilized to discern causal relationships between the NAO index and international food prices. The findings reveal that significant increases in the NAO index are correlated with noteworthy upswings in various international food prices over both short and long-term periods. Additionally, variable-lag transfer entropy confirms the causal role of the NAO index in influencing international food prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple "reddening" approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic (15° N – 70° N 80° W – 8° W) is analyzed. The results are based on the decomposition of the GECCO3 (1948–2018), ORA-S5 (1979–2018) and SODA3.12.2 (1980–2017) oceanic reanalyses data using extended empirical orthogonal functions. The leading pattern during the entire 16–month period (January–April of the next year) in the 0–300 m layer is a tripole, with temperature anomalies of the same sign in the tropical and high latitudes and the opposite sign in the subtropical gyre. The evolution of the leading pattern shows the deepening of temperature anomalies in winter, their preservation with a maximum in the summer seasonal thermocline (~ 65–90 m) and partial weakening in the subsurface layer in summer, and their emergence on the ocean surface in the subsequent autumn–winter season. The temporal evolution of the reemergence of the tripole pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), explained by the first extended principal component (EPC1), is in good agreement with the variability of the main atmospheric circulation mode over the North Atlantic on interannual scales – the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), especially after 1979. The recurrence of SSTAs is found in all three centers of action of the tripole pattern. In the subpolar and midlatitude centers of action, the reemerging signal maximum appears in the subsurface layer in late summer and early autumn and in the subsequent autumn–winter season ~ 2/3 of this signal occurs at the surface. In the subtropical center of action, the reemerging signal maximum appears in the mixed layer in winter–spring and in the subsequent autumn–winter season ~ 1/2 of this signal occurs at the surface. For the subtropical center of action, a moderate correlation was found between the regional EPC1 and the mixed layer depth and the wind stress modulus over a 16–month period. Recurrence of temperature anomalies in all centers of action of the tripole structure from January 2014 to April 2015 associated with the repeated positive NAO phase is shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]