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219 results on '"NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)"'

1. Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

Author: Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Kirtman, B., Branstator, G., Danabasoglu, G., Hawkins, E., Kumar, A., Rosati, T., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Carson, C., Corti, S., Karspeck, A., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Matei, D., https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3735-8802, Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Schneider, E., Tebaldi, C., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G., Vecchi, G., Yeager, S., National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), International Research Institute for Climate and Society ( IRI ), Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University [New York]-Columbia University [New York], CERFACS [Toulouse], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Department of Neurological Sciences, University of Milan, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats ( ICREA ), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading ( UOR ), Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Carnot de Bourgogne ( LICB ), Université de Bourgogne ( UB ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology ( MPI-M ), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts ( PARVATI ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques ( LOCEAN ), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle ( MNHN ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle ( MNHN ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica [Perugia] ( DMI ), Università degli Studi di Perugia ( UNIPG ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Espaces et Sociétés ( ESO ), Université de Caen Normandie ( UNICAEN ), Normandie Université ( NU ) -Normandie Université ( NU ) -Le Mans Université ( UM ) -Université d'Angers ( UA ) -AGROCAMPUS OUEST-Université de Rennes 2 ( UR2 ), Université de Rennes ( UNIV-RENNES ) -Université de Rennes ( UNIV-RENNES ) -Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement ( IGARUN ), Université de Nantes ( UN ) -Université de Nantes ( UN ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Florida International University [Miami] (FIU), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), University of Reading (UOR), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Carnot de Bourgogne (LICB), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica [Perugia] (DMI), Università degli Studi di Perugia (UNIPG), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Espaces et Sociétés (ESO), Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Le Mans Université (UM), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Meehl GA, Goddard L, Boer G, Burgman R, Branstator G, Cassou C, Corti S, Danabasoglu G, Doblas-Reyes F, Hawkins E, Karspeck A, Kimoto M, Kumar A, Matei D, Mignot J, Msadek R, Navarra A, Pohlmann H, Rienecker M, Rosati T, Schneider E, Smith D, Sutton R, Teng HY, van Oldenborgh GJ, Vecchi G, and Yeager S
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmosphere, Climate system, Initialization, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Forcing (mathematics), Hiatus, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, [ PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH ] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Climatic changes--Simulation methods, Climatic changes--Forecasting, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, decadal predictions, climate, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6–9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.
Published: 2014

2. A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen

Author: Sand, Maria, Skeie, Ragnhild, Sandstad, Marit, Krishnan, Srinath, Myhre, Gunnar, Bryant, Hannah, Derwent, Richard, Hauglustaine, Didier, Paulot, Fabien, Prather, Michael, Stevenson, David, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Rdscientific [Newbury], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), and University of California (UC)-University of California (UC)
Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]
Abstract: With increasing global interest in molecular hydrogen to replace fossil fuels, more attention is being paid to potential leakages of hydrogen into the atmosphere and its environmental consequences. Hydrogen is not directly a greenhouse gas, but its chemical reactions change the abundances of the greenhouse gases methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor, as well as aerosols. Here, we use a model ensemble of five global atmospheric chemistry models to estimate the 100-year time-horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP100) of hydrogen. We estimate a hydrogen GWP100 of 11.6 ± 2.8 (one standard deviation). The uncertainty range covers soil uptake, photochemical production of hydrogen, the lifetimes of hydrogen and methane, and the hydroxyl radical feedback on methane and hydrogen. The hydrogen-induced changes are robust across the different models. It will be important to keep hydrogen leakages at a minimum to accomplish the benefits of switching to a hydrogen economy.
Published: 2023

3. Semi‐Automatic Tuning of Coupled Climate Models With Multiple Intrinsic Timescales: Lessons Learned From the Lorenz96 Model

Author: Redouane Lguensat, Julie Deshayes, Homer Durand, Venkatramani Balaji, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Princeton University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and ANR-17-MPGA-0010,HRMES,High-Resolution Modeling of the Earth System(2017)
Subjects: FOS: Computer and information sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Computer Science - Machine Learning, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, FOS: Physical sciences, Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Abstract: The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research., Submission to JAMES journal (AGU), added link to code
Published: 2023

4. Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

Author: Darryn W. Waugh, Steven Pawson, Paul J. Kushner, N. Butchart, Judith Perlwitz, Hella Garny, Eugene Rozanov, A. J. G. Baumgaertner, Rolando R. Garcia, Kiyotaka Shibata, Lei Wang, John A. Pyle, Veronika Eyring, Kirstin Krüger, Marion Marchand, Scott Osprey, Steven C. Hardiman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Austin, Ch. Brühl, Martine Michou, H. Teyssèdre, Paul A. Newman, David A. Plummer, Tetsu Nakamura, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Peter H. Haynes, Sandip Dhomse, Dan Smale, Olaf Morgenstern, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, P. Braesicke, Theodore G. Shepherd, W. Tian, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Yousuke Yamashita, Irene Cionni, Michael Sigmond, John F. Scinocca, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), NCAS-Climate [Cambridge], Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), Department of Physics [Toronto], University of Toronto, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), University of Reading ( UOR ), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre ( IPA ), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] ( DLR ), University of Cambridge [UK] ( CAM ) -University of Cambridge [UK] ( CAM ), Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften ( IFM-GEOMAR ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ( CIRES ), University of Colorado Boulder [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), National Institute for Environmental Studies ( NIES ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ( UCAR ), SHTI - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales ( LATMOS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry ( MPIC ), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique ( CNRM-GAME ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] ( NIWA ), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis ( CCCma ), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center ( PMOD/WRC ), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] ( MRI ), Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ), Johns Hopkins University ( JHU ), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: quasi-biennial oscillation, Atmospheric Science, polar night jet, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil Science, Aquatic Science, Sudden stratospheric warming, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Geochemistry and Petrology, Polar vortex, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), General circulation model, Southern Hemisphere, Stratosphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Ecology, Polar night, Northern Hemisphere, Paleontology, Forestry, Jet stream, stratospheric warmings, Geophysics, [ PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH ] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Environmental science, Polar, Dynamik der Atmosphäre, Stratospheric climate
Abstract: The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, "metrics" indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long-standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Published: 2016

5. Simulating social-ecological systems: the Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars (IDEA) consortium

Author: Jennifer A. Dunne, Sally J. Holbrook, Mike Harfoot, Dawn Field, Hunter S. Lenihan, George K. Roderick, Georgios Kotoulas, Antoine Collin, Slava G. Turyshev, Serge Planes, Benoit Stoll, Billie J. Swalla, Tony Dell, Antonios Magoulas, Véronique Berteaux, Hervé Bossin, James J. Leichter, Hinano Teavai Murphy, Russell J. Schmitt, Fernanda Valdvinos, Neil M Davies, Spencer A. Wood, Patrick V. Kirch, Joachim Claudet, Alex Kosenkov, Daniel M. Tartakovsky, Matthias Troyer, David J. Gavaghan, Christopher P. Meyer, Ruth D. Gates, Neo D. Martinez, Rich Williams, Marania Hopuare, Linda A. Amaral Zettler, Michael B. Bonsall, Alex Kusenko, John Deck, James L. Hench, Charlotte Cabasse, Jacobs University [Bremen], Hawaii Pacific University, Departement of Computer of Science University of Oxford, University of Oxford [Oxford], Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California [Santa Barbara], Coastal Research Center, Marine Science Institute, Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL ( LabEX CORAIL ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Université des Antilles et de la Guyane ( UAG ) -École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( EHESS ) -École pratique des hautes études ( EPHE ) -Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer ( IFREMER ) -Université de la Réunion ( UR ) -Université de la Polynésie Française ( UPF ) -Université de Nouvelle Calédonie-Institut d'écologie et environnement, Theoretische Physik, ETH Zurich, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule [Zürich] ( ETH Zürich ), Department of zoology, Environmental Science Policy and Management (ESPM), University of California, Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés ( LATTS ), Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée ( UPEM ) -École des Ponts ParisTech ( ENPC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Berkeley natural history museums, University of California [Berkeley], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, IMBBC, HCMR, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research ( HCMR ) -Hellenic Centre for Marine Research ( HCMR ), Institute of Marine Biology and Genetics, Hellenic Center for Marine Research ( HCMR ), Institut Laue-Langevin ( ILL ), ILL, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement ( LCE ), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté ( UBFC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Franche-Comté ( UFC ), Institut für Geophysik und Extraterrestrische Physik [Braunschweig] ( IGEP ), Technische Universität Braunschweig [Braunschweig], Friday Harbor Laboratories, University of Washington [Seattle], Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering [San Diego] ( UCSD ), University of California [San Diego] ( UC San Diego ), Laboratory of Molecular Genetics, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( JPL ), NASA-California Institute of Technology ( CALTECH ), CSIRO Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] ( CSIRO ), National Centre for Adult Stem Cell Research, Griffith University, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology [Santa Barbara] (EEMB), University of California [Santa Barbara] (UC Santa Barbara), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (LabEX CORAIL), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF)-Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (UNC)-Institut d'écologie et environnement-Université des Antilles (UA), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), University of California (UC), Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés (LATTS), Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEM)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology (HIMB), Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR)-Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Institut Laue-Langevin (ILL), Institut für Geophysik und Extraterrestrische Physik [Braunschweig] (IGEP), Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig], Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering [Univ California San Diego] (MAE - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Griffith University [Brisbane], University of California [Santa Barbara] (UCSB), University of California-University of California, Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR), Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering [La Jolla] (UCSD), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH)-NASA, Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut d'écologie et environnement-Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (UNC)-Université de la Polynésie Française (UPF)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Subjects: 0301 basic medicine, Open science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computational ecology, Computer science, Climate, Biocode, Ecological systems theory, Ecosystem dynamics, 01 natural sciences, Schema (psychology), Human Activities, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Islands, Ecology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, Life Sciences, Biodiversity, Genomics, Predictive modeling, Computer Science Applications, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Earth observations, Social-ecological system, Climate change scenarios, Conservation of Natural Resources, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Systems biology, Health Informatics, BioCode, Polynesia, [ SDE.IE ] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, 03 medical and health sciences, Systems ecology, Humans, 14. Life underwater, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Davies [BRII recipient], Models, Theoretical, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Data science, Digital ecosystem, 030104 developmental biology, 13. Climate action, Sustainability, Commentary, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [ SDE.ES ] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Forecasting
Abstract: Systems biology promises to revolutionize medicine, yet human wellbeing is also inherently linked to healthy societies and environments (sustainability). The IDEA Consortium is a systems ecology open science initiative to conduct the basic scientific research needed to build use-oriented simulations (avatars) of entire social-ecological systems. Islands are the most scientifically tractable places for these studies and we begin with one of the best known: Moorea, French Polynesia. The Moorea IDEA will be a sustainability simulator modeling links and feedbacks between climate, environment, biodiversity, and human activities across a coupled marine–terrestrial landscape. As a model system, the resulting knowledge and tools will improve our ability to predict human and natural change on Moorea and elsewhere at scales relevant to management/conservation actions., GigaScience, 5 (1), ISSN:2047-217X
Published: 2016

6. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

Author: Bart van den Hurk, Benjamin R. Lintner, Stefan Hagemann, Agnès Ducharne, Arndt Meier, Alexis Berg, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Paul C.D. Milly, Ruth Lorenz, Sergey Malyshev, Andrew J. Pitman, Alessandra Giannini, Kirsten L. Findell, Frédérique Cheruy, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University [New York]-Columbia University [New York], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Environmental Sciences [New Brunswick], School of Environmental and Biological Sciences [New Brunswick], Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey [New Brunswick] (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey [New Brunswick] (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW)-Australian Research Council [Canberra] (ARC), Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research [Lund] (CEC), Lund University [Lund], Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies (CICS), Princeton University -NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Global warming, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Arid, 020801 environmental engineering, Atmosphere, Hydrology (agriculture), 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Aridity is expected to increase globally in a warmer world. Research now suggests that this is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and plant responses to increased atmospheric CO2.
Published: 2016

7. The CISE-LOCEAN seawater isotopic database (1998–2021)

Author: Gilles Reverdin, Claire Waelbroeck, Catherine Pierre, Camille Akhoudas, Giovanni Aloisi, Marion Benetti, Bernard Bourlès, Magnus Danielsen, Jérôme Demange, Denis Diverrès, Jean-Claude Gascard, Marie-Noëlle Houssais, Hervé Le Goff, Pascale Lherminier, Claire Lo Monaco, Herlé Mercier, Nicolas Metzl, Simon Morisset, Aïcha Naamar, Thierry Reynaud, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Virginie Thierry, Susan E. Hartman, Edward W. Mawji, Solveig Olafsdottir, Torsten Kanzow, Anton Velo, Antje Voelker, Igor Yashayaev, F. Alexander Haumann, Melanie J. Leng, Carol Arrowsmith, Michael Meredith, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Instrumentation, Moyens analytiques, Observatoires en Géophysique et Océanographie (IMAGO), Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Variabilité de l'Océan et de la Glace de mer (VOG), Développement Instrumental et Techniques Marines (DITM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Amundsen Science, Quebec, National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Center for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen] (MARUM), Universität Bremen, Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas de Vigo, Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Instituto Português de Investigação do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Centro de Ciências do Mar [Faro] (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve (UAlg), Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, British Geological Survey (BGS), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), LEFE/INSU LASSO, and European Commission
Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract: 15 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables.-- This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License., The characteristics of the CISE-LOCEAN seawater isotope dataset (δ18O, δ2H, referred to as δD) are presented (https://doi.org/10.17882/71186; Waterisotopes-CISE-LOCEAN, 2021). This dataset covers the time period from 1998 to 2021 and currently includes close to 8000 data entries, all with δ18O, three-quarters of them also with δD, associated with a date stamp, space stamp, and usually a salinity measurement. Until 2010, samples were analyzed by isotopic ratio mass spectrometry and since then mostly by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). Instrumental uncertainty in this dataset is usually as low as 0.03 ‰ for δ18O and 0.15 ‰ for δD. An additional uncertainty is related to the isotopic composition of the in-house standards that are used to convert data to the Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) scale. Different comparisons suggest that since 2010 the latter have remained within at most 0.03 ‰ for δ18O and 0.20 ‰ for δD. Therefore, combining the two uncertainties suggests a standard deviation of at most 0.05 ‰ for δ18O and 0.25 ‰ for δD. For some samples, we find that there has been evaporation during collection and storage, requiring adjustment of the isotopic data produced by CRDS, based on d-excess (δD − 8×δ18O). This adjustment adds an uncertainty in the respective data of roughly 0.05 ‰ for δ18O and 0.10 ‰ for δD. This issue of conservation of samples is certainly a strong source of quality loss for parts of the database, and “small” effects may have remained undetected. The internal consistency of the database can be tested for subsets of the dataset when time series can be obtained (such as in the southern Indian Ocean or North Atlantic subpolar gyre). These comparisons suggest that the overall uncertainty of the spatially (for a cruise) or temporally (over a year) averaged data is less than 0.03 ‰ for δ18O and 0.15 ‰ for δD. However, 18 comparisons with duplicate seawater data analyzed in other laboratories or with other datasets in the intermediate and deep ocean suggest a larger scatter. When averaging the 18 comparisons done for δ18O, we find a difference of 0.082 ‰ with a standard error of 0.016 ‰. Such an average difference is expected due to the adjustments applied at LOCEAN to saline water data produced either by CRDS or isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), but the scatter found suggests that care is needed when merging datasets from different laboratories. Examples of time series in the surface North Atlantic subpolar gyre illustrate the temporal changes in water isotope composition that can be detected with a carefully validated dataset, The WAPITI project received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement 637770). The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition was made possible by funding from the Swiss Polar Institute and Ferring Pharmaceuticals, and F. Alexander Haumann was supported by SNSF grant numbers P2EZP2_175162 and P400P2_186681
Published: 2022

8. The representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump from CMIP5 to CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for the carbon cycle

Author: Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, Charles Stock, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.STU.GC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract: Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon in surface waters and provides buffering capacity towards the associated acidification. However, unlike dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), alkalinity is not directly impacted by anthropogenic carbon emissions. Within the context of projections of future ocean carbon uptake and potential ecosystem impacts, especially through Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the representation of alkalinity and the main driver of its distribution in the ocean interior, the calcium carbonate cycle, have often been overlooked. Here we track the changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6 with respect to the Earth system model (ESM) representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump which depletes the surface ocean in alkalinity through biological production of calcium carbonate and releases it at depth through export and dissolution. We report an improvement in the representation of alkalinity in CMIP6 ESMs relative to those in CMIP5, with CMIP6 ESMs simulating lower surface alkalinity concentrations, an increased meridional surface gradient and an enhanced global vertical gradient. This improvement can be explained in part by an increase in calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production for some ESMs, which redistributes alkalinity at the surface and strengthens its vertical gradient in the water column. We were able to constrain a particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) export estimate of 44–55 Tmol yr−1 at 100 m for the ESMs to match the observed vertical gradient of alkalinity. Reviewing the representation of the CaCO3 cycle across CMIP5/6, we find a substantial range of parameterizations. While all biogeochemical models currently represent pelagic calcification, they do so implicitly, and they do not represent benthic calcification. In addition, most models simulate marine calcite but not aragonite. In CMIP6, certain model groups have increased the complexity of simulated CaCO3 production, sinking, dissolution and sedimentation. However, this is insufficient to explain the overall improvement in the alkalinity representation, which is therefore likely a result of marine biogeochemistry model tuning or ad hoc parameterizations. Although modellers aim to balance the global alkalinity budget in ESMs in order to limit drift in ocean carbon uptake under pre-industrial conditions, varying assumptions related to the closure of the budget and/or the alkalinity initialization procedure have the potential to influence projections of future carbon uptake. For instance, in many models, carbonate production, dissolution and burial are independent of the seawater saturation state, and when considered, the range of sensitivities is substantial. As such, the future impact of ocean acidification on the carbonate pump, and in turn ocean carbon uptake, is potentially underestimated in current ESMs and is insufficiently constrained.
Published: 2023

9. Tracing the impacts of recent rapid sea ice changes and the A68 megaberg on the surface freshwater balance of the Weddell and Scotia Seas

Author: Michael P. Meredith, E. Povl Abrahamsen, F. Alexander Haumann, Melanie J. Leng, Carol Arrowsmith, Mark Barham, Yvonne L. Firing, Brian A. King, Peter Brown, J. Alexander Brearley, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Camille Akhoudas, Geraint A. Tarling, British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and European Project: 821001,SO-CHIC(2019)
Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], General Mathematics, General Engineering, General Physics and Astronomy
Abstract: The Southern Ocean upper-layer freshwater balance exerts a global climatic influence by modulating density stratification and biological productivity, and hence the exchange of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean interior. It is thus important to understand and quantify the time-varying freshwater inputs, which is challenging from measurements of salinity alone. Here we use seawater oxygen isotopes from samples collected between 2016 and 2021 along a transect spanning the Scotia and northern Weddell Seas to separate the freshwater contributions from sea ice and meteoric sources. The unprecedented retreat of sea ice in 2016 is evidenced as a strong increase in sea ice melt across the northern Weddell Sea, with surface values increasing approximately two percentage points between 2016 and 2018 and column inventories increasing approximately 1 to 2 m. Surface meteoric water concentrations exceeded 4% in early 2021 close to South Georgia due to meltwater from the A68 megaberg; smaller icebergs may influence meteoric water at other times also. Both these inputs highlight the importance of a changing cryosphere for upper-ocean freshening; potential future sea ice retreats and increases in iceberg calving would enhance the impacts of these freshwater sources on the ocean and climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities’.
Published: 2023

10. The First 30 years of GEWEX

Author: Graeme Stephens, Jan Polcher, Xubin Zeng, Peter van Oevelen, Germán Poveda, Michael Bosilovich, Myoung-Hwan Ahn, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qingyun Duan, Gabriele Hegerl, Christian Jakob, Benjamin Lamptey, Ruby Leung, Maria Piles, Zhongbo Su, Paul Dirmeyer, Kirsten L. Findell, Anne Verhoef, Michael Ek, Tristan L’Ecuyer, Rémy Roca, Ali Nazemi, Francina Dominguez, Daniel Klocke, Sandrine Bony, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Univeristy of Arizona, GEWEX CEOP Network, Partenaires INRAE, Universidad national de Colombia, GSFC Astrophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), EWHA Womans University (EWHA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Hohai University, University of Edinburgh, Monash university, University of Ghana, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Universitat de València (UV), University of Twente, George Mason University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Concordia University [Montreal], University of Illinois [Springfield], and Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project was created more than 30 years ago within the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The aim of this initiative was to address major gaps in our understanding of Earth’s energy and water cycles given a lack of information about the basic fluxes and associated reservoirs of these cycles. GEWEX sought to acquire and set standards for climatological data on variables essential for quantifying water and energy fluxes and for closing budgets at the regional and global scales. In so doing, GEWEX activities led to a greatly improved understanding of processes and our ability to predict them. Such understanding was viewed then, as it remains today, essential for advancing weather and climate prediction from global to regional scales. GEWEX has also demonstrated over time the importance of a wider engagement of different communities and the necessity of international collaboration for making progress on understanding and on the monitoring of the changes in the energy and water cycles under ever increasing human pressures. This paper reflects on the first 30 years of evolution and progress that has occurred within GEWEX. This evolution is presented in terms of three main phases of activity. Progress toward the main goals of GEWEX is highlighted by calling out a few achievements from each phase. A vision of the path forward for the coming decade, including the goals of GEWEX for the future, are also described.
Published: 2022

11. An assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations

Author: Sophie Valcke, David M. Holland, Michael Winton, Xuebin Zhang, David Salas y Mélia, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Mats Bentsen, Sergey Danilov, Richard J. Greatbatch, Eric P. Chassignet, William G. Large, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Jianhua Lu, Stephen M. Griffies, Paul Goddard, A. J. George Nurser, Jens Schröter, Daohua Bi, Riccardo Farneti, Simon J. Marsland, Jianjun Yin, Petteri Uotila, Helge Drange, Anne-Marie Tréguier, Akhilesh Mishra, Katja Lorbacher, Bonita L. Samuels, Erik Behrens, Qiang Wang, Arne Biastoch, Catia M. Domingues, Aurore Voldoire, Yu-Heng Tseng, Paul J. Durack, Mehmet Ilicak, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Dmitry Sidorenko, Alexandra Bozec, Susan C. Bates, Jaime B. Palter, Elodie Fernandez, Claus W. Böning, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), GEOMAR - Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] ( GEOMAR ), Uni Research Climate, Uni Research Ltd, Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorolgy, Center for Acean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies ( COAPS ), Florida State University, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung ( AWI ), University of Bergen ( UIB ), International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique ( CERFACS ), CERFACS, New York University [New York], National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] ( NOC ), University of Southampton [Southampton], Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique ( CNRM-GAME ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), McGill University, Laboratoire de physique des océans ( LPO ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer ( IFREMER ) -Université de Brest ( UBO ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] ( MRI ), Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research ( CSIRO ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] ( CSIRO ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Geosciences [Tucson], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), University of Bergen (UiB), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), New York University [New York] (NYU), NYU System (NYU), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO), and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)
Subjects: Arctic sea ice decline, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, CORE global ocean-ice simulations, Ocean gyre, Steric sea level, Computer Science (miscellaneous), Sea level, 14. Life underwater, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Momentum (technical analysis), geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, [ SDU.STU.OC ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 010505 oceanography, Advection, Global sea level, Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology, Ocean heat content, 13. Climate action, North Atlantic oscillation, Climatology, Environmental science, Thermohaline circulation
Abstract: Highlights: • Global mean sea level simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Regional sea level patterns simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Theoretical foundation for analysis of global mean sea level and regional patterns. Abstract: We provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes. These CORE-II simulations are compared amongst themselves as well as to observation-based estimates. We focus on the final 15 years of the simulations (1993–2007), as this is a period where the CORE-II atmospheric state is well sampled, and it allows us to compare sea level related fields to both satellite and in situ analyses. The ensemble mean of the CORE-II simulations broadly agree with various global and regional observation-based analyses during this period, though with the global mean thermosteric sea level rise biased low relative to observation-based analyses. The simulations reveal a positive trend in dynamic sea level in the west Pacific and negative trend in the east, with this trend arising from wind shifts and regional changes in upper 700 m ocean heat content. The models also exhibit a thermosteric sea level rise in the subpolar North Atlantic associated with a transition around 1995/1996 of the North Atlantic Oscillation to its negative phase, and the advection of warm subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. Sea level trends are predominantly associated with steric trends, with thermosteric effects generally far larger than halosteric effects, except in the Arctic and North Atlantic. There is a general anti-correlation between thermosteric and halosteric effects for much of the World Ocean, associated with density compensated changes.
Published: 2014

12. Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Author: Doug M. Smith, Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, Ingo Bethke, Tarkan A. Bilge, Rémy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Kirsten L. Findell, Guillaume Gastineau, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, L. Ruby Leung, Juliette Mignot, Wolfgang A. Müller, Scott Osprey, Odd Helge Otterå, Geeta G. Persad, Adam A. Scaife, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hideo Shiogama, Rowan T. Sutton, Didier Swingedouw, Shuting Yang, Tianjun Zhou, Tilo Ziehn, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg (UHH), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), University of Oxford, Department of Geological Sciences [Austin], Jackson School of Geosciences (JSG), University of Texas at Austin [Austin]-University of Texas at Austin [Austin], College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (UCAS), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, and CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Pollution
Abstract: Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change. Copyright © 2022 Smith, Gillett, Simpson, Athanasiadis, Baehr, Bethke, Bilge, Bonnet, Boucher, Findell, Gastineau, Gualdi, Hermanson, Leung, Mignot, Müller, Osprey, Otterå, Persad, Scaife, Schmidt, Shiogama, Sutton, Swingedouw, Yang, Zhou and Ziehn.
Published: 2022

13. Iconic CO2 Time Series at Risk

Author: Frédéric Chevallier, Paul I. Palmer, Philippe Ciais, Bakr Badawy, Christian Rödenbeck, James T. Randerson, Scott Denning, Alex Vermeulen, Marc Fischer, Dylan B. A. Jones, Aslam Khalil, Thomas Röckmann, A. G. C. A. Meesters, Jing M. Chen, Martin Heimann, Andrew Schuh, Z. Poussi, Sourish Basu, Andrew R. Jacobson, G. James Collatz, Philippe Bousquet, L. Yurganov, Philippe Peylin, Maarten Krol, Prasad S. Kasibhatla, Taro Takahashi, Wouter Peters, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Andrew C. Manning, Richard Engelen, Manuel Gloor, Shamil Maksyutov, David Baker, John B. Miller, Michael J. Prather, Grégoire Broquet, Ian G. Enting, Dmitry Belikov, Sander Houweling, Marko Scholze, Jocelyn Turnbull, Prabir K. Patra, Nir Y. Krakauer, Christoph Gerbig, David S. Schimel, Parv Suntharalingam, Peter Bergamaschi, Josep G. Canadell, Annemarie Fraser, Takashi Maki, Tim Butler, Thomas Kaminski, Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groni, SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research ( SRON ), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] ( IMAU ), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen Business School [Copenhagen] ( CBS ), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] ( AOS Program ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) -Princeton University, School of Earth Sciences [Bristol], University of Bristol [Bristol], Amsterdam Global Change Institute, Earth and Climate, Hydrology and Geo-environmental sciences, SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Copenhagen Business School [Copenhagen] (CBS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: carbon footprint, sea, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Compromise, media_common.quotation_subject, Climate Change, air pollution, letter, Climate change, Commission, chemistry, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, carbon monoxide, biology.animal, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Whaling, 14. Life underwater, China, fossil fuel, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, Multidisciplinary, biology, Whale, Atmosphere, methane, carbon dioxide, land use, Carbon Dioxide, Earth system science, priority journal, Economy, greenhouse gas, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, halocarbon, aquatic environment
Abstract: COMMENTARY Common but differentiated IBI Prize Essay LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES LETTERS edited by Jennifer Sills Iconic CO 2 Time Series at Risk THE STEADY RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC LONG- lived greenhouse gas concentrations is the main driver of contemporary climate change. The Mauna Loa CO 2 time series (1, 2), started by C. D. Keeling in 1958 and maintained today by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) of NOAA, is iconic evidence of the effect of human- caused fossil fuel and land-use change emis- sions on the atmospheric increase of CO 2 . The continuity of such records depends criti- cally on having stable funding, which is chal- lenging to maintain in the context of 3- to 4-year research grant funding cycles (3), and LEAH R. GERBER Faculty of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Sciences, School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA. E-mail: leah.gerber@asu.edu References 1. Associated Press, The New York Times, 6 July 2012, p. A7 (www.nytimes.com/2012/07/06/ world/europe/south-korea-whaling-plan-criticized.html). 2. S. Herman, Voice of America, 24 July 2012 (www.voanews.com/content/south-korea-still- considering-resumption-of-whaling/1444081.html). 3. L. R. Gerber, L. Morissette, K. Kaschner, D. Pauly, Science 323, 880 (2009). 4. R. Black, BBC News, 5 July 2012 (www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18719512). is currently threatened by the ﬁ nancial crisis. The ESRL Global Monitoring Division maintains a network of about 100 surface and aircraft sites worldwide at which whole air samples are collected approximately every week for analysis of CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, halocar- bons, and many other chemical species (4). This is complemented by high-frequency measurements at the Mauna Loa, Barrow, American Samoa, and South Pole obser- vatories, and about 10 North American tall towers. The success of the NOAA program has inspired similar efforts in Europe (5), China (6), India (7), and Brazil (8), with the United Nations World Meteorological Orga- nization providing guidance and precision requirements through the Global Atmosphere Watch program (9), but no funding. 31 AUGUST 2012 Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on August 17, 2015 AT THE RECENT INTERNATIONAL WHALING COMMISSION’S ANNUAL meeting in Panama, South Korean ofﬁ cials announced their plan to initiate a “scientiﬁ c whaling” program (1). This announcement came as a surprise given the general sentiment that the global demand for whale meat is declining. After weeks of international outcry, on 17 July, South Korea reversed their decision to hunt whales for research, but the issue is not dead (2). South Korea claimed that the goal of the scientiﬁ c whaling pro- gram is to study the types and amounts of ﬁ sh whales eat, given conﬂ ict with ﬁ sher- ies. Yet, it is well established in the scien- tiﬁ c literature that there are many ways to study whale diet without killing them (3). Decades of fruitless negotiation between pro- and anti-whaling nations suggests a broken system, wrought with loopholes that allow unsustainable whal- ing to continue. Within this broken system, there is no incentive to reduce whaling, as the recent announcement by South Korea shows. Whaling groups are unwilling to compromise by allowing a sustainable harvest of whales, so unsustainable (scientiﬁ c) whaling continues. To ensure a future of both whales and whalers, we must har- ness the passion and value that people place on living whales, with- out telling people what to do or force one set of values on others. We need novel, out-of-the-box approaches to effective management and conservation of whales. We must compromise to ensure reduc- tions in whales being killed, better oversight of countries that har- vest them, and limited whaling that does not threaten the persis- tence of whales. For those who believe that whaling is unethical, I challenge you to put forward alternative ideas to a global moratorium that fosters the “loophole” of scientiﬁ c whaling. With new plans to develop scientiﬁ c whaling programs (4), the current global moratorium is clearly bro- ken. Scientists, conservation advocates, resource managers, and the public must work together to develop new approaches to ensure the persistence of whales in our oceans. The data collected by NOAA and its worldwide partners have been used not only to demonstrate the unassailable rise of atmo- spheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but also to infer the magnitudes, locations, and times of surface-atmosphere exchange of those gases based on small concentration gradients between sites (10). Important ﬁ nd- ings from analysis of these records include the detection of a signiﬁ cant terrestrial car- bon sink at northern mid-latitudes (11) and subsequent research aimed at identifying the mechanisms by which that sink must operate. Long-term, high-quality, atmospheric mea- surements are crucial for quantifying trends in greenhouse gas ﬂ uxes and attributing them to fossil fuel emissions, changes in land-use and management, or the response of natural VOL 337 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org Published by AAAS CREDIT: LEAH GERBER/ ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY The Scientiﬁ c Whaling Loophole
Published: 2012

14. Energy Flow Through Marine Ecosystems: Confronting Transfer Efficiency

Author: Tilla Roy, Colleen M. Petrik, Didier Gascuel, Rebecca L. Selden, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Charles A. Stock, Reg Watson, Julia L. Blanchard, Joey R. Bernhardt, Kelly A. Kearney, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Hubert Du Pontavice, Mathieu Colléter, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Belle W. Baruch Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences (BWBIMCS ), University of South Carolina [Columbia], Department of Biology [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia (UBC), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [New Haven], Yale University [New Haven], CSIRO Agriculture and Food (CSIRO), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Department of Oceanography [College Station], Texas A&M University [College Station], École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Wellesley College, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Food Chain, Natural resource economics, fishing impacts, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Fishing, Biome, Fisheries, Climate change, trophic efficiency, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Energy flow, Ecosystem, Marine ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Apex predator, trophic ecology, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Evolutionary Biology, energy transfer, food web, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Biological Sciences, Food web, climate change, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Environmental Sciences
Abstract: Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macroscale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources.
Published: 2021

15. An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

Author: William J. Randel, John Nash, John J. Barnett, Roger Lin, David W. J. Thompson, John Austin, Philippe Keckhut, Ulrike Langematz, Shigeo Yoden, Carl Mears, Craig S. Long, Fei Wu, Dian J. Seidel, Nathan P. Gillett, Keith P. Shine, Chantal Claud, Alvin J. Miller, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut für Meteorologie [Berlin], Freie Universität Berlin, NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC), NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] (RSS), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), Department of Atmospheric Science [Fort Collins], Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Department of Geophysics [Kyoto], Kyoto University [Kyoto], European Comminssion, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), University of Reading ( UOR ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) ( LMD ), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -École polytechnique ( X ) -École des Ponts ParisTech ( ENPC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ), University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), SHTI - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales ( LATMOS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Freie Universität Berlin [Berlin], NCEP Climate Prediction Center ( CPC ), NOAA National Weather Service ( NWS ), Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] ( RSS ), NOAA Air Resources Laboratory ( ARL ), Colorado State University [Fort Collins] ( CSU ), University of Oxford, Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), and Kyoto University
Subjects: Solar minimum, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil Science, Aquatic Science, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, law.invention, Geochemistry and Petrology, law, Trend surface analysis, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Stratosphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Microwave sounding unit, Ecology, Temperature, Paleontology, Forestry, Solar maximum, Ozone depletion, Depth sounding, Geophysics, [ PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH ] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, Radiosonde, Environmental science
Abstract: An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979-2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979-2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of ∼0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979-2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed, for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958-1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5-1.5 K/decade during 1979-2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40-50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995-2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (∼30°N-S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of ∼0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to ∼1.0 K (upper stratosphere). Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
Published: 2009

16. Tripling of western US particulate pollution from wildfires in a warming climate

Author: Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Bertrand Decharme, Christine Delire, Larry W. Horowitz, David M. Lawrence, Fang Li, Roland Séférian, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), and International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Subjects: Minerals, Multidisciplinary, Climate Change, Physical Sciences (Earth, drought, Earth system models, Fires, United States, climate warming, Wildfires, Air Pollution, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Humans, Public Health, Atmospheric, Ecosystem, and Planetary Sciences) Air quality
Abstract: Significance Record-setting fires in the western United States over the last decade caused severe air pollution, loss of human life, and property damage. Enhanced drought and increased biomass in a warmer climate may fuel larger and more frequent wildfires in the coming decades. Applying an empirical statistical model to fires projected by Earth System Models including climate–ecosystem–socioeconomic interactions, we show that fine particulate pollution over the US Pacific Northwest could double to triple during late summer to fall by the late 21st century under intermediate- and low-mitigation scenarios. The historic fires and resulting pollution extremes of 2017–2020 could occur every 3 to 5 y under 21st-century climate change, posing challenges for air quality management and threatening public health.
Published: 2022

17. Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Author: Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Steven Turnock, Vaishali Naik, Sophie Szopa, Aristeidis K Georgoulias, Susanne E Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Larry W Horowitz, James Keeble, Philippe Le Sager, Fiona M O’Connor, Naga Oshima, Konstantinos Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Leeds, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), NCAS-Climate [Cambridge], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], P Z, D A and A K G would like acknowledge the funding from the Action titled 'National Network on Climate Change and its Impacts—CLIMPACT' which is implemented under the sub-project 3 of the project 'Infrastructure of national research networks in the fields of Precision Medicine, Quantum Technology and Climate Change', funded by the Public Investment Program of Greece, General Secretary of Research and Technology/Ministry of Development and Investments. S T would like to acknowledge the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. M D and N O were supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP18H03363, JP18H05292, JP19K12312, and JP20K04070), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II), Program Grant Number JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). J K was financially supported by NERC through NCAS (Grant No. R8/H12/83/003). FMO was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (Grant No. GA01101) and the EU Horizon 2020 Research Programme CRESCENDO project (Grant No. 641816)., and European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, penalty, climate change, surface ozone, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, benefit, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, CMIP6, General Environmental Science, ESMs
Abstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.
Published: 2022

18. GLODAPv2.2022: the latest version of the global interior ocean biogeochemical data product

Author: Siv K. Lauvset, Nico Lange, Toste Tanhua, Henry C. Bittig, Are Olsen, Alex Kozyr, Simone R. Alin, Marta Álvarez, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Leticia Barbero, Susan Becker, Peter J. Brown, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Richard A. Feely, Mario Hoppema, Matthew P. Humphreys, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Li-Qing Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Claire Lo Monaco, Akihiko Murata, Jens Daniel Müller, Fiz F. Pérez, Benjamin Pfeil, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Bronte Tilbrook, Adam Ulfsbo, Anton Velo, Ryan J. Woosley, Robert M. Key, NORCE Norwegian Research Center, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Newport] (PMEL), Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Málaga., Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, University of Washington (Tacoma), Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro [Rio de Janeiro] (UERJ), Alfred Wegener Institute [Potsdam], Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Earth Science System Interdisciplinary Center [College Park] (ESSIC), College of Computer, Mathematical, and Natural Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Instituto de Investigacions Marinas, Institute of Environmental Physics [Bremen] (IUP), University of Bremen, Marine Information Research Center, CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Department of Marine Sciences [Gothenburg], University of Gothenburg (GU), Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University
Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Abstract: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface-to-bottom ocean biogeochemical bottle data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of seawater samples. GLODAPv2.2022 is an update of the previous version, GLODAPv2.2021 (Lauvset et al., 2021). The major changes are as follows: data from 96 new cruises were added, data coverage was extended until 2021, and for the first time we performed secondary quality control on all sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) data. In addition, a number of changes were made to data included in GLODAPv2.2021. These changes affect specifically the SF6 data, which are now subjected to secondary quality control, and carbon data measured on board the RV Knorr in the Indian Ocean in 1994–1995 which are now adjusted using certified reference material (CRM) measurements made at the time. GLODAPv2.2022 includes measurements from almost 1.4 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 1085 cruises. The data for the now 13 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11), CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, and SF6) have undergone extensive quality control with a focus on systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but converted to World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. For the present annual update, adjustments for the 96 new cruises were derived by comparing those data with the data from the 989 quality-controlled cruises in the GLODAPv2.2021 data product using crossover analysis. SF6 data from all cruises were evaluated by comparison with CFC-12 data measured on the same cruises. For nutrients and ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) chemistry comparisons to estimates based on empirical algorithms provided additional context for adjustment decisions. The adjustments that we applied are intended to remove potential biases from errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices without removing known or likely time trends or variations in the variables evaluated. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 µmol kg−1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 µmol kg−1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02 in pH (depending on region), and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The other variables included in the compilation, such as isotopic tracers and discrete CO2 fugacity (f CO2), were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments. The original data, their documentation, and DOI codes are available at the Ocean Carbon and Acidification Data System of NOAA NCEI (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/oceans/GLODAPv2_2022/, last access: 15 August 2022). This site also provides access to the merged data product, which is provided as a single global file and as four regional ones – the Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans – under https://doi.org/10.25921/1f4w-0t92 (Lauvset et al., 2022). These bias-adjusted product files also include significant ancillary and approximated data, which were obtained by interpolation of, or calculation from, measured data. This living data update documents the GLODAPv2.2022 methods and provides a broad overview of the secondary quality control procedures and results., Earth System Science Data, 14 (12), ISSN:1866-3516, ISSN:1866-3508
Published: 2022

19. An AeroCom initial assessment – optical properties in aerosol component modules of global models

Author: X. Tie, Richard C. Easter, Xiaohong Liu, Sarah Guibert, Ulrike Lohmann, Thomas Diehl, Paul Ginoux, Frank Dentener, William D. Collins, Philip Stier, Olivier Boucher, Joyce E. Penner, Alf Kirkevåg, Dorothy Koch, Maarten Krol, Ivar S. A. Isaksen, Alf Grini, Mian Chin, D. Fillmore, Silvia Kloster, C. Textor, Michael Schulz, V. Montanaro, Jón Egill Kristjánsson, Glen Lesins, Toshihiko Takemura, Øyvind Seland, Stefan Kinne, Michael Herzog, Susanne E. Bauer, Sunling Gong, Giovanni Pitari, Terje Koren Berntsen, Axel Lauer, Johann Feichter, Gunnar Myhre, Larry W. Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Johannes Hendricks, Trond Iversen, Yves Balkanski, Steven J. Ghan, S. Reddy, Tore F. Berglen, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University [New York], University of Oslo (UiO), Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lille, Hadley Centre, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center (GEST), University of Maryland [Baltimore County] (UMBC), University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Batelle, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ARQM Meteorological Service Canada, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Dalhousie University [Halifax], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), University of L'Aquila [Italy] (UNIVAQ), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Climate Change Unit [Ispra], JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC)-European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie [Köln], Universität zu Köln = University of Cologne, Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie ( MPI-M ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), University of Oslo ( UiO ), Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 ( LOA ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center ( GEST ), University of Maryland Baltimore County [Baltimore] ( UMBC ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre ( IPA ), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] ( DLR ), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] ( IMAU ), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule [Zürich] ( ETH Zürich ), University of L'Aquila [Italy] ( UNIVAQ ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Universität zu Köln
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, Meteorology and Air Quality, depth, Context (language use), Forcing (mathematics), 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, complex mixtures, lcsh:Chemistry, aeronet, Component (UML), Radiative transfer, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, WIMEK, respiratory system, ocean, lcsh:QC1-999, Aerosol, AERONET, land, period, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Satellite, retrievals, Caltech Library Services, lcsh:Physics, Large model
Abstract: International audience; The AeroCom exercise diagnoses multi-component aerosol modules in global modeling. In an initial assessment simulated global distributions for mass and mid-visible aerosol optical thickness (aot) were compared among 20 different modules. Model diversity was also explored in the context of previous comparisons. For the component combined aot general agreement has improved for the annual global mean. At 0.11 to 0.14, simulated aot values are at the lower end of global averages suggested by remote sensing from ground (AERONET ca. 0.135) and space (satel-lite composite ca. 0.15). More detailed comparisons, however , reveal that larger differences in regional distribution and significant differences in compositional mixture remain. Of Correspondence to: S. Kinne (stefan.kinne@zmaw.de) particular concern are large model diversities for contributions by dust and carbonaceous aerosol, because they lead to significant uncertainty in aerosol absorption (aab). Since aot and aab, both, influence the aerosol impact on the radia-tive energy-balance, the aerosol (direct) forcing uncertainty in modeling is larger than differences in aot might suggest. New diagnostic approaches are proposed to trace model differences in terms of aerosol processing and transport: These include the prescription of common input (e.g. amount, size and injection of aerosol component emissions) and the use of observational capabilities from ground (e.g. measurements networks) or space (e.g. correlations between aerosol and clouds).
Published: 2005

20. En el postprint el titulo es: Climate models underpredict North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes

Author: Wolfgang A. Müller, Leon Hermanson, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Stephen Yeager, Adam A. Scaife, Holger Pohlmann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Roberto Bilbao, William J. Merryfield, Masahide Kimoto, Jon Robson, Pablo Ortega, Leonard Borchert, Rosie Eade, Paolo Ruggieri, Klaus Pankatz, Victor Estella-Perez, Ingo Bethke, Dario Nicolì, Yiguo Wang, Simon Wild, Kameswarrao Modali, Takashi Mochizuki, Doug Smith, Alessio Bellucci, Xiaosong Yang, Nick Dunstone, Noel Keenlyside, Francois Counillon, Liping Zhang, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Viatcheslav Kharin, Simona Flavoni, Juliette Mignot, Panos Athanasiadis, Didier Swingedouw, Thomas L. Delworth, Louis-Philippe Caron, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] (NERSC), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Fukuoka], Kyushu University [Fukuoka], Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017), European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Kyushu University, Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Smith D.M., Scaife A.A., Eade R., Athanasiadis P., Bellucci A., Bethke I., Bilbao R., Borchert L.F., Caron L.-P., Counillon F., Danabasoglu G., Delworth T., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Dunstone N.J., Estella-Perez V., Flavoni S., Hermanson L., Keenlyside N., Kharin V., Kimoto M., Merryfield W.J., Mignot J., Mochizuki T., Modali K., Monerie P.-A., Muller W.A., Nicoli D., Ortega P., Pankatz K., Pohlmann H., Robson J., Ruggieri P., Sospedra-Alfonso R., Swingedouw D., Wang Y., Wild S., Yeager S., Yang X., and Zhang L.
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, Climatologia -- Models matemàtics, SEASONAL PREDICTIONS, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, DECADAL PREDICTION, OSCILLATION, VARIABILITY, SKILL, CMIP5, NAO, INITIALIZATION, UNCERTAINTY, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Climatology--Computer programs, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Climate models, Predictable signal, Simulació per ordinador, Projection of climate change, Precipitation, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Desenvolupament humà i sostenible [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Decadal predictions, Multidisciplinary, Mode (statistics), Variance (land use), Computer simulation, Climatic changes, 13. Climate action, North Atlantic oscillation, Climatology, North Atlantic atmospheric circulation, Environmental science, Errors-in-variables models, Climate model
Abstract: Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7,8,9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade. DMS, AAS, NJD, LH and RE were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra and by the European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP project (GA 776613). FJDR, LPC, SW and RB also acknowledge the support from the EUCP project (GA 776613) and from the Ministerio de Econom´ıa y Competitividad (MINECO) as part of the CLINSA project (Grant No. CGL2017-85791-R). SW received funding from the innovation programme under the Marie Sk´lodowska-Curie grant agreement H2020-MSCA-COFUND-2016-754433 and PO from the Ramon y Cajal senior tenure programme of MINECO. The EC-Earth simulations were performed on Marenostrum 4 (hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain) using Auto-Submit through computing hours provided by PRACE.WAM, HP, KMand KP were supported by the German FederalMinistry for Education and Research (BMBF) project MiKlip (grant 01LP1519A). NK, IB, FC and YW were supported by the Norwegian Research Council projects SFE (grant 270733) the Nordic Center of excellent ARCPATH (grant 76654) and the Trond Mohn Foundation, under the project number : BFS2018TMT01 and received grants for computer time from the Norwegian Program for supercomputing (NOTUR2, NN9039K) and storage grants (NORSTORE, NS9039K). JM, LFB and DS are supported by Blue-Action (European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant Number: 727852) and EUCP (European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no 776613) projects. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a major facility sponsored by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. NCAR contribution was partially supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA13OAR4310138 and by the US NSF Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant OCE-1243015.
Published: 2020

21. Retrieving the global distribution of the threshold of wind erosion from satellite data and implementing it into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model (GFDL AM4.0/LM4.0)

Author: B. Pu, P. Ginoux, H. Guo, N. C. Hsu, J. Kimball, B. Marticorena, S. Malyshev, V. Naik, N. T. O'Neill, C. Pérez García-Pando, J. Paireau, J. M. Prospero, E. Shevliakova, M. Zhao, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies (CICS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, and Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Subjects: Mineral dusts, Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Medi ambient [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Atmospheric Science, Erosió eòlica, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric model, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Dust emission, lcsh:Chemistry, Pols -- Control, Geophysical fluid dynamics, Dust optical depth (DOD), Optical depth, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Climatology, lcsh:QC1-999, Aerosol, MODIS (Spectroradiometer), lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Global distribution, Climatologia, Wind erosion, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Aeolian processes, Satellite, Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, Dust control, lcsh:Physics, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Abstract: Dust emission is initiated when surface wind velocities exceed the threshold of wind erosion. Many dust models used constant threshold values globally. Here we use satellite products to characterize the frequency of dust events and land surface properties. By matching this frequency derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products with surface winds, we are able to retrieve a climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold (Vthreshold) over dry and sparsely vegetated surfaces. This monthly two-dimensional threshold velocity is then implemented into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled land–atmosphere model (AM4.0/LM4.0). It is found that the climatology of dust optical depth (DOD) and total aerosol optical depth, surface PM10 dust concentrations, and the seasonal cycle of DOD are better captured over the “dust belt” (i.e., northern Africa and the Middle East) by simulations with the new wind erosion threshold than those using the default globally constant threshold. The most significant improvement is the frequency distribution of dust events, which is generally ignored in model evaluation. By using monthly rather than annual mean Vthreshold, all comparisons with observations are further improved. The monthly global threshold of wind erosion can be retrieved under different spatial resolutions to match the resolution of dust models and thus can help improve the simulations of dust climatology and seasonal cycles as well as dust forecasting.
Published: 2020

22. Robust Evaluation of ENSO in Climate Models: How Many Ensemble Members Are Needed?

Author: Peter J. Gleckler, Giuliana Pallotta, Jiwoo Lee, Michael J. McPhaden, Eric Guilyardi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Kenneth R. Sperber, Yann Planton, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Newport] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), ANR-18-CE01-0012,ARiSE,Rôle de la non-linéarité de la réponse atmosphérique à la température de l'océan dans la physique d'ENSO (El Niño Oscillation Australe)(2018), ANR-15-JCLI-0004,GOTHAM,Globally Observed Teleconnections and their role and representation in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models(2015), European Project: 824084,IS-ENES3(2019), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Monte Carlo method, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Geophysics, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate model, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model’s ability to capture observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package. Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.
Published: 2021

23. Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Author: Xiaopei Lin, Doug Smith, Mat Collins, Myriam Khodri, Shayne McGregor, Matthieu Lengaigne, Gerald A. Meehl, Guojian Wang, Christine T. Y. Chung, Wenju Cai, Feng Zhu, François Delage, Jing-Jia Luo, Scott Power, Antonietta Capotondi, Kim M. Cobb, Eric Guilyardi, Magdalena Balmaseda, Jérôme Vialard, Xuebin Zhang, Yuko M. Okumura, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Daniel J. Vimont, Geon Il Kim, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Beyrem Jebri, Matthew Newman, Julien Emile-Geay, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Yann Planton, Janet Sprintall, Michael J. McPhaden, Julia E. Cole, Benjamin J. Henley, University of Southern Queensland (USQ), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Monash University [Clayton], Department of Mathematics, POSTECH, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Department of Earth Sciences [University of Southern California], University of Southern California (USC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Madison], University of Wisconsin-Madison, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and ANR-18-CE01-0012,ARiSE,Rôle de la non-linéarité de la réponse atmosphérique à la température de l'océan dans la physique d'ENSO (El Niño Oscillation Australe)(2018)
Subjects: Tropical pacific, Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global climate, Range (biology), Climate system, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Atmosphere, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, Predictability, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.
Published: 2021

24. An Atmospheric Constraint on the Seasonal Air‐Sea Exchange of Oxygen and Heat in the Extratropics

Author: Keith B. Rodgers, Laure Resplandy, J. Bent, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Ralph F. Keeling, Jasmin G. John, M. Manizza, Matthew C. Long, Ivan D. Lima, Scott C. Doney, Cynthia D. Nevison, Yuming Jin, Eric J. Morgan, John P. Dunne, Olivier Aumont, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Princeton University, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), University of Colorado [Boulder], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Department of Environmental Sciences [Charlottesville], University of Virginia, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California-University of California, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), and University of Virginia [Charlottesville]
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010505 oceanography, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Redistribution (cultural anthropology), Permission, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Constraint (information theory), Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, Geochemistry and Petrology, Climatology, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Environmental science, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 126(8), (2021): e2021JC017510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017510.
Published: 2021

25. Climate‐induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production

Author: Charles A. Stock, Gabriel Reygondeau, Didier Gascuel, William W. L. Cheung, Hubert Du Pontavice, Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia (UBC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Changing Ocean Research Unit, AGROCAMPUS OUEST, and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Food Chain, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Fisheries, Climate change, Marine life, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Environmental protection, Ecosystem model, Environmental Chemistry, Animals, Marine ecosystem, Ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, Biomass, biomiass flow, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Trophic level, trophic ecology, Global and Planetary Change, Biomass (ecology), ecosystem modeling, Ecology, marine food web, EcoTroph, Food web, climate change, 13. Climate action, trophic structure, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: International audience; Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1 degrees latitude x1 degrees longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.
Published: 2021

26. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007

Author: Mario Hoppema, Jeremy T. Mathis, Siv K. Lauvset, Toste Tanhua, Christopher L. Sabine, Steven van Heuven, Brendan R. Carter, Masao Ishii, D. Clement, Akihiko Murata, Claire Lo Monaco, Rik Wanninkhof, Nicolas Gruber, Robert M. Key, Are Olsen, Alex Kozyr, Fiz F. Pérez, Richard A. Feely, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Department of Oceanography [Honolulu], University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and Isotope Research
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), GLOBAL OCEAN, chemistry.chemical_compound, 14. Life underwater, Uptake rate, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Carbon flux, geography, CARBON FLUXES, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, LAND-USE, PERTURBATION, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Ocean current, CONSTANTS, DISSOCIATION, VENTILATION, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, Environmental science, Thermohaline circulation, Hydrography, Regional differences, MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION, STORAGE, ACIDIFICATION
Abstract: 8 pages, 2 tables, 4 figures, We quantify the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) over the period 1994 to 2007 by using observations from the global repeat hydrography program and contrasting them to observations from the 1990s. Using a linear regression–based method, we find a global increase in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory of 34 ± 4 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) between 1994 and 2007. This is equivalent to an average uptake rate of 2.6 ± 0.3 Pg C year−1 and represents 31 ± 4% of the global anthropogenic CO2 emissions over this period. Although this global ocean sink estimate is consistent with the expectation of the ocean uptake having increased in proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2, substantial regional differences in storage rate are found, likely owing to climate variability–driven changes in ocean circulation, We are grateful to the many funding agencies in the various countries that financially supported the global ship-based surveys that underpin much of this work. In particular, we acknowledge funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the GO-SHIP program together with the International ocean carbon coordination project (IOCCP), for their efforts to initiate and coordinate the repeat hydrography program. The work of N.G. and D.C. was supported by ETH and the FP7 projects CarboChange (264879) and Geocarbon (283080). S.v.H. also received support from CarboChange (264879). R.W., R.A.F., and B.R.C. acknowledge the support of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research NOAA and the U.S. Department of Commerce, including resources from the NOAA Global Ocean Monitoring and Observations Division (fund reference 100007298). This is contribution no. 4796 from the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and JISAO contribution 2018-0185. M.I. acknowledges support from the Japan Meteorological Agency and MEXT KAKENHI grant no. 24121003 “NEOPS” and JP16H01594 “OMIX”. S.K.L. acknowledges support from the Research Council of Norway (214513). F.F.P. was supported by Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad through the ARIOS (CTM2016-76146-C3-1-R) project cofunded by the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional 2014-2020 (FEDER) and EU Horizon 2020 through the AtlantOS project (grant agreement 633211)
Published: 2019

27. Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

Author: Aurore Voldoire, Jiwoo Lee, Scott B. Power, Tobias Bayr, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Shayne McGregor, Yann Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Peter J. Gleckler, Jérôme Vialard, Romain Roehrig, Michael J. McPhaden, Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University [Clayton], NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Newport] (PMEL), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-18-CE01-0012,ARiSE,Rôle de la non-linéarité de la réponse atmosphérique à la température de l'océan dans la physique d'ENSO (El Niño Oscillation Australe)(2018), ANR-15-JCLI-0004,GOTHAM,Globally Observed Teleconnections and their role and representation in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models(2015), European Project: 824084,IS-ENES3(2019), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Coupled model intercomparison project, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Mode (statistics), Weather forecasting, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model, Metric (unit), Predictability, 020701 environmental engineering, computer, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Teleconnection
Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.
Published: 2021

28. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Author: Aurélien Ribes, Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Lijuan Li, Tongwen Wu, Guillaume Gastineau, Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Nan Rosenbloom, Reto Knutti, Øyvind Seland, Jasmin G. John, Tilo Ziehn, Seiji Yukimoto, Larissa Nazarenko, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division [Toronto], Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Beijing Municipal Climate Center, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: 0303 health sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Air temperature, Greenhouse gas, Period (geology), Environmental science, Climate model, Mean radiant temperature, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Quantifying the temperature impacts of anthropogenic emissions helps monitor proximity to the Paris Agreement goals. Human activities warmed global mean temperature during the past decade by 0.9 to 1.3 °C above 1850–1900 values, with 1.2 to 1.9 °C from greenhouse gases and −0.7 to −0.1 °C from aerosols.
Published: 2021

29. Monthly patterns of ammonia over the contiguous United States at 2 km resolution

Author: Jesse O. Bash, Cathy Clerbaux, Mark A. Zondlo, Xuehui Guo, Pierre-François Coheur, Kang Sun, Rui Wang, Fabien Paulot, Martin Van Damme, Da Pan, Simon Whitburn, Lieven Clarisse, James T. Kelly, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Princeton], Princeton University, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Spectroscopy, Quantum Chemistry and Atmospheric Remote Sensing (SQUARES), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: Percentile, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, IASI, satellite, Infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, ammonia, medicine, Géographie physique, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, seasonality, Resolution (electron density), emissions, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Sciences de la terre et du cosmos, Geophysics, oversampling, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Satellite, Scale (map), Regional differences, CMAQ
Abstract: Monthly, high-resolution (∼2 km) ammonia (NH3) column maps from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) were developed across the contiguous United States and adjacent areas. Ammonia hotspots (95th percentile of the column distribution) were highly localized with a characteristic length scale of 12 km and median area of 152 km2. Five seasonality clusters were identified with k-means++ clustering. The Midwest and eastern United States had a broad, spring maximum of NH3 (67% of hotspots in this cluster). The western United States, in contrast, showed a narrower midsummer peak (32% of hotspots). IASI spatiotemporal clustering was consistent with those from the Ammonia Monitoring Network. CMAQ and GFDL-AM3 modeled NH3 columns have some success replicating the seasonal patterns but did not capture the regional differences. The high spatial-resolution monthly NH3 maps serve as a constraint for model simulations and as a guide for the placement of future, ground-based network sites., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2021

30. An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Author: Hiroyuki Tsujino, David A. Bailey, Martin Vancoppenolle, José M. Rodriguez, Leandro Ponsoni, Ed Blockley, David Docquier, François Massonnet, David Schroeder, Daniel Feltham, Siobhan O'Farrell, Takahiro Toyoda, Neil C. Swart, Mitchell Bushuk, Jens Boldingh Debernard, A. B. Keen, Klaus Wyser, Steve Delhaye, UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), European Project: 641727,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,PRIMAVERA(2015), European Project: 0834493(2008), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Arctic sea ice, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Atmospheric sciences, Seasonal cycle, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Melt pond, Sea ice, Shortwave radiation, CMIP6, lcsh:Environmental sciences, Frazil ice, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, lcsh:GE1-350, geography, Coupled model intercomparison project, geography.geographical_feature_category, Advection, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Sea ice models, Arctic ice pack, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, Climate model
Abstract: We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice for 15 models submitted to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using new diagnostics that have not been available for previous model inter-comparisons. These diagnostics allow us to look beyond the standard metrics of ice cover and thickness to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in climate models in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. For the 1960–1989 multi-model mean, the dominant processes causing annual ice growth are basal growth and frazil ice formation, which both occur during the winter. The main processes by which ice is lost are basal melting, top melting and advection of ice out of the Arctic. The first two processes occur in summer, while the latter process is present all year. The sea ice budgets for individual models are strikingly similar overall in terms of the major processes causing ice growth and loss and in terms of the time of year during which each process is important. However, there are also some key differences between the models, and we have found a number of relationships between model formulation and components of the ice budget that hold for all or most of the CMIP6 models considered here. The relative amounts of frazil and basal ice formation vary between the models, and the amount of frazil ice formation is strongly dependent on the value chosen for the minimum frazil ice thickness. There are also differences in the relative amounts of top and basal melting, potentially dependent on how much shortwave radiation can penetrate through the sea ice into the ocean. For models with prognostic melt ponds, the choice of scheme may affect the amount of basal growth, basal melt and top melt, and the choice of thermodynamic scheme is important in determining the amount of basal growth and top melt. As the ice cover and mass decline during the 21st century, we see a shift in the timing of the top and basal melting in the multi-model mean, with more melt occurring earlier in the year and less melt later in the summer. The amount of basal growth reduces in the autumn, but it increases in the winter due to thinner sea ice over the course of the 21st century. Overall, extra ice loss in May–June and reduced ice growth in October–November are partially offset by reduced ice melt in August and increased ice growth in January–February. For the individual models, changes in the budget components vary considerably in terms of magnitude and timing of change. However, when the evolving budget terms are considered as a function of the changing ice state itself, behaviours common to all the models emerge, suggesting that the sea ice components of the models are fundamentally responding in a broadly consistent way to the warming climate. It is possible that this similarity in the model budgets may represent a lack of diversity in the model physics of the CMIP6 models considered here. The development of new observational datasets for validating the budget terms would help to clarify this.
Published: 2021

31. AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as surface in situ observations

Author: A. Heckel, Philippe Le Sager, Paul Ginoux, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Mian Chin, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Samuel Remy, Jan Griesfeller, Huisheng Bian, Harri Kokkola, Yves Balkanski, Svetlana Tsyro, Alf Kirkevåg, Twan van Noije, Susanne E. Bauer, Jonas Gliß, Toshihiko Takemura, Larisa Sogacheva, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Elisabeth Andrews, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gunnar Myhre, Kostas Tsigaridis, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Zak Kipling, Peter North, Anna Benedictow, Paolo Laj, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Swansea University, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Graduate School of Environmental Studies [Nagoya], Nagoya University, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), HYGEOS (SARL), Research Institute for Applied Mechanics [Fukuoka] (RIAM), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], This research has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (EVA (grant no. 229771), INES (grantno. 270061), and KeyClim (grant no. 295046)) and the Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO (grant no. 641816). High performance computing and storage resources were provided bythe Norwegian Infrastructure for Computational Science (throughprojects NN2345K, NN9560K, NS2345K, and NS9560K). Pleasealso note further funding sources in the Acknowledgements, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Kyushu University, and Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
Subjects: MIXING-STATE, Atmospheric Science, Angstrom exponent, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, SEA-SALT AEROSOL, DUST, Forcing (mathematics), Atmospheric sciences, 114 Physical sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, Atmosphere, 03 medical and health sciences, SIZE DISTRIBUTION, Radiative transfer, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 1172 Environmental sciences, Optical depth, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, VERTICAL PROFILES, Single-scattering albedo, LIGHT-ABSORPTION, lcsh:QC1-999, AERONET, Aerosol, MODEL, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, DEPTH, GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE, Environmental science, REFRACTIVE-INDEX, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.
Published: 2021

32. Publisher correction: Ventilation of the abyss in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

Author: F. Alexander Haumann, Giovanni Aloisi, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Loïc Jullion, Melanie J. Leng, Marion Benetti, Camille Akhoudas, Carol Arrowsmith, Michael P. Meredith, Gilles Reverdin, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), ECS Department - University of Southampton, University of Southampton, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Institute of Earth Sciences [Reykjavik], University of Iceland [Reykjavik], British Geological Survey (BGS), and University of Nottingham, UK (UON)
Subjects: Multidisciplinary, Oceanography, law, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Science, Ventilation (architecture), Medicine, Environmental science, law.invention
Abstract: The original PDF version of this Article contained errors in Equation 1 where [10pt] was incorrectly given. cf. 10.1038/s41598-021-86043-2,; International audience
Published: 2021

33. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author: Jason S. Link, Marta Coll, Eric D. Galbraith, Jérôme Guiet, Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador, Gregory L. Britten, Didier Gascuel, William W. L. Cheung, Julia L. Blanchard, John P. Dunne, Yunne-Jai Shin, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Ryan F. Heneghan, Matthias Büchner, Jasmin G. John, Tyler D. Eddy, Daniele Bianchi, Heike K. Lotze, Charles A. Stock, Camilla Novaglio, Nicolas Barrier, Laurent Bopp, Jeroen Steenbeek, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Jonathan Rault, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Lynne J. Shannon, Colleen M. Petrik, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Hubert Du Pontavice, Anthony J. Richardson, Jason D. Everett, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Cheryl S. Harrison, Villy Christensen, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Interférométrie (LCAR), Laboratoire Collisions Agrégats Réactivité (LCAR), Institut de Recherche sur les Systèmes Atomiques et Moléculaires Complexes (IRSAMC), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche sur les Systèmes Atomiques et Moléculaires Complexes (IRSAMC), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia (UBC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), Dalhousie University [Halifax], Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), University of Aberdeen, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Jarislowsky Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Australian Research Council, European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), UK Research and Innovation, Global Challenges Research Fund, One Ocean Hub, Simons Foundation, Belmont Forum, BiodivERsA, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ocean Frontier Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), California Ocean Protection Council, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut de Recherche sur les Systèmes Atomiques et Moléculaires Complexes (IRSAMC), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley [Brownsville, TX] (UTRGV), Louisiana State University (LSU), Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Instituto de Ciencias del Mar de Barcelona (ICM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research (CFER), Memorial University of Newfoundland = Université Memorial de Terre-Neuve [St. John's, Canada] (MUN), University of Queensland [Brisbane], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), AZTI - Tecnalia, McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest, University of Cape Town, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Texas A&M University [College Station], Princeton University, and ANR-17-CE32-0008,CIGOEF,Impacts des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes et les pêcheries océaniques globaux.(2017)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Environmental Science and Management, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Article, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecosystem, Marine ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, Life Below Water, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Ecological modelling, Marine biology, Coupled model intercomparison project, Biomass (ecology), business.industry, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Environmental resource management, Climate-change ecology, Primary production, 15. Life on land, Climate Action, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Climate model, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: 22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6, Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning, This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
Published: 2021

34. Earth Observations for Monitoring Marine Coastal Hazards and Their Drivers

Author: G. Le Cozannet, A. Melet, Alessandra Conversi, Jérôme Benveniste, Cédric Jamet, Rafael Almar, Pietro Teatini, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), ESRIN ESA FRASCATI ITA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Echanges Côte-Large (ECOLA), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord]), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Marine conservation, Earth observation, Metocean, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Monitoring, 0211 other engineering and technologies, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, 02 engineering and technology, Coastal zone, 01 natural sciences, Marine pollution, Geochemistry and Petrology, Flooding, Bathymetry, 14. Life underwater, Hazards, Water quality, Coastal flood, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Shore, geography, Coastal hazards, geography.geographical_feature_category, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Environmental science, business
Abstract: Coastal zones have large social, economic and environmental values. They are more densely populated than the hinterland and concentrate large economic assets, critical infrastructures and human activities such as tourism, fisheries, navigation. Furthermore, coastal oceans are home to a wealth of living marine resources and very productive ecosystems. Yet, coastal zones are exposed to various natural and anthropogenic hazards. To reduce the risks associated with marine hazards, sustained coastal zone monitoring programs, forecasting and early warning systems are increasingly needed. Earth observations (EO), and in particular satellite remote sensing, provide invaluable information: satellite-borne sensors allow an effective monitoring of the quasi-global ocean, with synoptic views of large areas, good spatial and temporal resolution, and sustained time-series covering several years to decades. However, satellite observations do not always meet the precision required by users, in particular in dynamic coastal zones, characterized by shorter-scale variability. A variety of sensors are used to directly monitor the coastal zone and their observations can also be integrated into numerical models to provide a full 4D monitoring of the ocean and forecasts. Here, we review how EO, and more particularly satellite observations, can monitor coastal hazards and their drivers. These include coastal flooding, shoreline changes, maritime security, marine pollution, water quality, and marine ecology shifts on the one hand, and several physical characteristics (bathymetry, topography, vertical land motion) of coastal zones, meteorological and oceanic (metocean) variables that can act as forcing factors for coastal hazards on the other hand.
Published: 2020

35. Aerosol‐Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

Author: Guillaume Gastineau, Richard P. Allan, Daniel L. R. Hodson, Colin Jones, Laura Wilcox, Mark A. Ringer, Juliette Mignot, Jon Robson, Jonathan M. Gregory, Christophe Cassou, Rowan Sutton, Rong Zhang, B. B. B. Booth, Matthew Menary, Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), NERC National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes [Toulouse] (CECI), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CECI, CERFACS / CNRS (CECI), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, Radiative forcing, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Aerosol, Sea surface temperature, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, 14. Life underwater, Shortwave, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been, and will continue to be, a key factor in the modulation of climate change both locally and globally. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in recent AMOC evolution. Here, we show that the multimodel mean AMOC strengthened by approximately 10% from 1850-1985 in new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a larger change than was seen in CMIP5. Across the models, the strength of the AMOC trend up to 1985 is related to a proxy for the strength of the aerosol forcing. Therefore, the multimodel difference is a result of stronger anthropogenic aerosol forcing on average in CMIP6 than CMIP5, which is primarily due to more models including aerosol-cloud interactions. However, observational constraints-including a historical sea surface temperature fingerprint and shortwave radiative forcing in recent decades-suggest that anthropogenic forcing and/or the AMOC response may be overestimated.
Published: 2020

36. The Global Methane Budget: 2000–2017

Author: M. Saunois, A. R. Stavert, B. Poulter, P. Bousquet, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Jackson, P. A. Raymond, E. J. Dlugokencky, S. Houweling, P. K. Patra, P. Ciais, V. K. Arora, D. Bastviken, P. Bergamaschi, D. R. Blake, G. Brailsford, L. Bruhwiler, K. M. Carlson, M. Carrol, S. Castaldi, N. Chandra, C. Crevoisier, P. M. Crill, K. Covey, C. L. Curry, G. Etiope, C. Frankenberg, N. Gedney, M. I. Hegglin, L. Höglund-Isaksson, G. Hugelius, M. Ishizawa, A. Ito, G. Janssens-Maenhout, K. M. Jensen, F. Joos, T. Kleinen, P. B. Krummel, R. L. Langenfelds, G. G. Laruelle, L. Liu, T. Machida, S. Maksyutov, K. C. McDonald, J. McNorton, P. A. Miller, J. R. Melton, I. Morino, J. Müller, F. Murguia-Flores, V. Naik, Y. Niwa, S. Noce, S. O'Doherty, R. J. Parker, C. Peng, S. Peng, G. P. Peters, C. Prigent, R. Prinn, M. Ramonet, P. Regnier, W. J. Riley, J. A. Rosentreter, A. Segers, I. J. Simpson, H. Shi, S. J. Smith, L. P. Steele, B. F. Thornton, H. Tian, Y. Tohjima, F. N. Tubiello, A. Tsuruta, N. Viovy, A. Voulgarakis, T. S. Weber, M. van Weele, G. R. van der Werf, R. F. Weiss, D. Worthy, D. Wunch, Y. Yin, Y. Yoshida, W. Zhang, Z. Zhang, Y. Zhao, B. Zheng, Q. Zhu, Q. Zhuang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Yale School of the Environment (YSE), NOAA/University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Department of Thematic Studies – Technology and Social Change, Linköping University (LIU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Department of Chemistry [Irvine], University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), New York University [New York] (NYU), NYU System (NYU), Università degli studi della Campania 'Luigi Vanvitelli' = University of the Study of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Skidmore College [Saratoga Springs], Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria [Canada] (UVIC), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences [Pasadena], California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Reading (UOR), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia, Département de Physique [Bruxelles] (ULB), Faculté des Sciences [Bruxelles] (ULB), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)-Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University [West Lafayette], European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Lund University [Lund], Climate Research Division [Toronto], School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol], University of Bristol [Bristol], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), School of Chemistry [Bristol], NERC National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research, Southern Cross University (SCU), TNO Climate, Air and Sustainability [Utrecht], The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Department of Geological Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, FAO Forestry, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Department of Chemistry [Imperial College London], Imperial College London, University of Rochester [USA], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of Toronto, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], Hohai University, European Project: 725546,Metlake, European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018), European Project: 773421,H2020,H2020-BG-2017-1,NUNATARYUK(2017), Natural Environment Research Council [2006-2012], Earth Sciences, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Saunois, M., R. Stavert, A., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., G. Canadell, J., B. Jackson, R., A. Raymond, P., J. Dlugokencky, E., Houweling, S., K. Patra, P., Ciais, P., K. Arora, V., Bastviken, D., Bergamaschi, P., R. Blake, D., Brailsford, G., Bruhwiler, L., M. Carlson, K., Carrol, M., Castaldi, S., Chandra, N., Crevoisier, C., M. Crill, P., Covey, K., L. Curry, C., Etiope, G., Frankenberg, C., Gedney, N., I. Hegglin, M., Hoglund-Isaksson, L., Hugelius, G., Ishizawa, M., Ito, A., Janssens-Maenhout, G., M. Jensen, K., Joos, F., Kleinen, T., B. Krummel, P., L. Langenfelds, R., G. Laruelle, G., Liu, L., Machida, T., Maksyutov, S., C. McDonald, K., Mcnorton, J., A. Miller, P., R. Melton, J., Morino, I., Muller, J., Murguia-Flores, F., Naik, V., Niwa, Y., Noce, S., O'Doherty, S., J. Parker, R., Peng, C., Peng, S., P. Peters, G., Prigent, C., Prinn, R., Ramonet, M., Regnier, P., J. Riley, W., A. Rosentreter, J., Segers, A., J. Simpson, I., Shi, H., J. Smith, S., Paul Steele, L., F. Thornton, B., Tian, H., Tohjima, Y., N. Tubiello, F., Tsuruta, A., Viovy, N., Voulgarakis, A., S. Weber, T., Van Weele, M., R. Van Der Werf, G., F. Weiss, R., Worthy, D., Wunch, D., Yin, Y., Yoshida, Y., Zhang, W., Zhang, Z., Zhao, Y., Zheng, B., Zhu, Q., and Zhuang, Q.
Subjects: Naturgeografi, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, TRACE GASES, ATMOSPHERIC METHANE, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Methane, chemistry.chemical_compound, CARBON-DIOXIDE, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate change, CH4 EMISSIONS, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, lcsh:GE1-350, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS, Atmospheric methane, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Géochimie, Geology, methane, global warming, climate change, greenhouse gases, Carbon project, Atmospheric chemistry, Physical Sciences, 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS, NATURAL-GAS, PROCESS-BASED MODEL, 530 Physics, 03 medical and health sciences, SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals, Global Carbon Project, 0402 Geochemistry, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, Radiative forcing, 15. Life on land, Trace gas, lcsh:Geology, chemistry, TM 4D-VAR V1.0, Physical Geography, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, GOSAT SWIR XCO2, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Global methane (CH4) budget, 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract: Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budgetis important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change.Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase,making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas interms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relativeimportance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorteratmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations inatmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are stilldebated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmosphericgrowth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxylradicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established aconsortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the GlobalCarbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improvingand regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paperdedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-downstudies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modellingframework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models forestimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories ofanthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated byatmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximumestimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that isemissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009),and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previousbudget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al. 2016). Since 2012, global CH4emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881)than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for naturalsources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geologicalsources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints onthe top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissionsare overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmosphericobservation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions(∼ 65 % of the global budget, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2020

37. Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapor changes in CMIP6 models from 1850-2100

Author: James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, David Cugnet, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Lijuan Li, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Sungsu Park, Tongwen Wu, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University of Leicester, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), MOE Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Lanzhou University, Bodeker Scientific, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Stanford Center for Innovations in Learning, Stanford University, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre- industrial (1850) to the end of the 21st century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global total column ozone (TCO) has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Both TCO and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour show large variability following explosive volcanic eruptions.
Published: 2020

38. Sea surface salinity estimates from spaceborne L-band radiometers: An overview of the first decade of observation (2010–2019)

Author: Reul, Nicolás, Grodsky, S.A., Arias, Manuel, Boutin, Jacqueline, Catany, Rafael, Chapron, Bertrand, D'Amico, Francesco, Dinnat, Emmanuel, Donlon, C.J., Fore, Alexander, Fournier, Séverine, Guimbard, Sébastien, Hasson, Audrey, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, Lagerloef, Gary, Lee, Tong, Le Vine, D.M., Lindstrom, E., Maes, C., Mecklenburg, S., Meissner, Thomas, Olmedo, Estrella, Sabia, Roberto, Tenerelli, Joseph, Thouvenin-Masson, C., Turiel, Antonio, Vergely, Jean-Luc, Vinogradova, N., Wentz, Frank, Yueh, Simon, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ARGANS Limited, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), GSFC Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Agence Spatiale Européenne (ESA), European Space Agency (ESA), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), OceanDataLab, Earth and Space Research Institute [Seattle] (ESR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA Headquarters, European Space Research Institute (ESRIN), Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] (RSS), Mediterranean Center for Marine and Environmental Research (CMIMA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Analytic and Computational Research, Inc. - Earth Sciences (ACRI-ST), CNES-TOSCA SMOS-Ocean, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Agence Spatiale Européenne = European Space Agency (ESA), European Space Agency, Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales (France), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US), and Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Subjects: Sea surface salinity, L-band, Aquarius/SAC-D, Ocean microwave remote sensing, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], SMAP, Radiometer, SMOS
Abstract: 37 pages, 27 figures, 2 tables, 2 appendixes, Operated since the end of 2009, the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission is the first orbiting radiometer that collects regular and global observations from space of two Essential Climate Variables of the Global Climate Observing System: Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) and Soil Moisture. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aquarius mission, with the primary objective to provide global SSS measurements from space operated from mid-2011 to mid-2015. NASA's Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission, primarily dedicated to soil moisture measurements, but also monitoring SSS, has been operating since early 2015. The primary sensors onboard these three missions are passive microwave radiometers operating at 1.4 GHz (L-band). SSS is retrieved from radiometer measurements of the sea surface brightness temperature (TB). In this paper, we first provide a historical review of SSS remote sensing with passive L-band radiometry beginning with the discussions of measurement principles, technology, sensing characteristics and complementarities of the three aforementioned missions. The assessment of satellite SSS products is then presented in terms of individual mission characteristics, common algorithms, and measurement uncertainties, including the validation versus in situ data, and, the consideration of sampling differences between satellite SSS and in situ salinity measurements. We next review the major scientific achievements of the combined first 10 years of satellite SSS data, including the insights enabled by these measurements regarding the linkages of SSS with the global water cycle, climate variability, and ocean biochemistry. We also highlight the new ability provided by satellites to monitor mesoscale and synoptic-scale SSS features and to advance our understanding of SSS' role in air-sea interactions, constraining ocean models, and improving seasonal predictions. An overview of satellite SSS observation highlights during this first decade and upcoming challenges are then presented, The EU authors acknowledge support of ESA in the frame of the SMOS ESL Level 2 phase 3 contract (https://smos.argans.co.uk/), the SMOS Pilot-Mission Exploitation Platform (Pi-MEP) project (https://www.salinity-pimep.org/), and the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project (http://cci.esa.int/salinity). French authors thank the support of the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) in the frame of the Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS (CATDS, http://www.catds.fr) and of CNES-TOSCA SMOS-Ocean projects. US authors thank the support of the NASA Ocean Surface Salinity Team (OSST). SMAP CAP SSS is produced at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Thomas Meissner and Frank Wentz acknowledge funding from NASA (contracts no. NNG04HZ29C, NNH15CM44C, 80HQTR18C0015, and JPL sub-contract 1602331), With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)
Published: 2020

39. Influence of dynamic ozone dry deposition on ozone pollution

Author: J. W. Munger, L. Neil, A. J. Hogg, Fabien Paulot, Ensheng Weng, G. J. P. Correa, Arlene M. Fiore, Timo Vesala, Larry W. Horowitz, Benjamin Loubet, Allen H. Goldstein, Silvano Fares, Johan Uddling, Ignacio Goded, Ivan Mammarella, Colleen B. Baublitz, Carsten Gruening, Olivia E. Clifton, Patrick Stella, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [New York], Columbia University [New York], Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria (CREA), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] (ESPM), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), University of Michigan System, Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Helsinki, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), Harvard University [Cambridge], Hemmera, Ausenco, Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires (SADAPT), Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences [Gothenburg], University of Gothenburg (GU), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Science Foundation, NOAA's Climate Program Office's Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, and Climate program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, European Union (EU), INAR Physics, Micrometeorology and biogeochemical cycles, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS), and Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences)
Subjects: 1171 Geosciences, FLUXES, Atmospheric Science, Ozone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, AIR-QUALITY, air pollution, Air pollution, Coal combustion products, nonstomatal deposition, SOIL-MOISTURE, Aethalometer, Atmospheric sciences, medicine.disease_cause, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, dry deposition, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), medicine, Mass concentration (chemistry), Tropospheric ozone, earth system modeling, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY, Air quality index, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, tropospheric ozone, Radiative forcing, DECIDUOUS FOREST, MODEL, LAND-COVER, Geophysics, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, stomatal conductance, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, SURFACE OZONE, Environmental science
Abstract: Identifying the contributions of chemistry and transport to observed ozone pollution using regional-to-global models relies on accurate representation of ozone dry deposition. We use a recently developed configuration of the NOAA GFDL chemistry-climate model - in which the atmosphere and land are coupled through dry deposition-to investigate the influence of ozone dry deposition on ozone pollution over northern midlatitudes. In our model, deposition pathways are tied to dynamic terrestrial processes, such as photosynthesis and water cycling through the canopy and soil. Small increases in winter deposition due to more process-based representation of snow and deposition to surfaces reduce hemispheric-scale ozone throughout the lower troposphere by 5-12 ppb, improving agreement with observations relative to a simulation with the standard configuration for ozone dry deposition. Declining snow cover by the end of the 21st-century tempers the previously identified influence of rising methane on winter ozone. Dynamic dry deposition changes summer surface ozone by -4 to +7 ppb. While previous studies emphasize the importance of uptake by plant stomata, new diagnostic tracking of depositional pathways reveals a widespread impact of nonstomatal deposition on ozone pollution. Daily variability in both stomatal and nonstomatal deposition contribute to daily variability in ozone pollution. Twenty-first century changes in summer deposition result from a balance among changes in individual pathways, reflecting differing responses to both high carbon dioxide (through plant physiology versus biomass accumulation) and water availability. Our findings highlight a need for constraints on the processes driving ozone dry deposition to test representation in regional-to-global models.
Published: 2020

40. Dynamic mechanical behaviors of a metastable beta-type bulk metallic glass composite

Author: Lyu Guojian, Yao Yao, J.C. Qiao, L. Zhang, H.F. Zhang, Jean-Marc Pelletier, Northwestern Polytechnical University [Xi'an] (NPU), Matériaux, ingénierie et science [Villeurbanne] (MATEIS), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut des Sciences Chimiques de Rennes (ISCR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Rennes (ENSCR)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Rennes (INSA Rennes), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA), China Scholarship Council, 51971178, National Natural Science Foundation of China, 3102018ZY010, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, 2019-HT-XG, Astronautics Supporting Technology Foundation of China, 2019JM-344, Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province, Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Rennes (INSA Rennes), and Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Rennes (ENSCR)-Institut de Chimie du CNRS (INC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [PHYS]Physics [physics], Materials science, Amorphous metal, Mechanical Engineering, Composite number, Metals and Alloys, Thermodynamics, 02 engineering and technology, Dynamic mechanical analysis, 010402 general chemistry, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, 01 natural sciences, 0104 chemical sciences, Dendrite (crystal), Mechanics of Materials, Metastability, Phase (matter), Materials Chemistry, Relaxation (physics), 0210 nano-technology, Glass transition
Abstract: Depending on the β stability, different phase transformations may occur in β -type titanium, resulting in various mechanical behaviors. In this paper, a metastable β -type bulk metallic glass (BMG) composite Ti45.7Zr33Cu5.8Co3Be12.5 was investigated and analyzed using dynamic mechanical spectroscopy. During the heating below the glass transition temperature, the nano-sized ω -Ti phase is precipitated from the metastable β -Ti dendrite which leads to an anomalous increase of storage modulus, accompanied by an exothermic event. The thermal annealing has significant influence on the structural relaxation behaviors, the time dependency on the loss factor tan δ can be well fitted by the proposed exponential equation, the kinetic parameter β K W W reflects the degree of deviation from a single Debye relaxation and is linked to the dynamic heterogeneity in the glass. The findings provide information to better understand the complex dynamic mechanical relaxation behaviors of the metastable β -type BMG composites.
Published: 2020

41. Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models

Author: Chao Li, Long Cao, Maria Rugenstein, Gavin A. Schmidt, Olivier Geoffroy, Thorsten Mauritsen, Timothy Andrews, Shuting Yang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jonathan M. Gregory, Jean-Louis Dufresne, David Paynter, Reto Knutti, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Meteorology [Stockholm] (MISU), Stockholm University, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University (ZJU), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Psychology [York, UK], University of York [York, UK], State Key Laboratory of Acoustics, Institute of Acoustics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Center for Climate System Research [Kashiwa] (CCSR), and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, Extrapolation, Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, General Circulation Model, Radiative transfer, Range (statistics), Spatial ecology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, Climate model, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial‐length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid‐latitudes. Time‐dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.\ud \ud \ud Key points\ud \ud \ud \ud 27 simulations of 15 general circulation models are integrated to near equilibrium\ud All models simulate a higher equilibrium warming than predicted by using extrapolation methods\ud Tropics and mid‐latitudes dominate the change of the feedback parameter on different timescales on millennial timescales
Published: 2020

42. Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Author: Marion Gehlen, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jerry Tjiputra, Julien Palmieri, Andrew Lenton, Akitomo Yamamoto, Hiroyuki Tsujino, John P. Dunne, Charles A. Stock, Michio Watanabe, Katsuya Toyama, Alessandro Tagliabue, James R. Christian, James C. Orr, Jörg Schwinger, Andrew Yool, Hongmei Li, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Lester Kwiatkowski, Yohei Takano, Tilo Ziehn, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Olivier Torres, Roland Séférian, Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder] (ATOC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Department of Earth Ocean and Ecological Sciences [Liverpool], University of Liverpool, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), ANR-18-ERC2-0001,CONVINCE,Contraindre la réponse de la biogéochimie marine au changement climatique(2018), European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), European Project: 817578,TRIATLAS(2019), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Effects of global warming on oceans, lcsh:Life, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:QH540-549.5, Photic zone, 14. Life underwater, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Coupled model intercomparison project, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Global warming, Representative Concentration Pathways, Radiative forcing, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, Sea surface temperature, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climate sensitivity, lcsh:Ecology
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.
Published: 2020

43. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in High-Resolution Models

Author: Paul G. Myers, Arne Biastoch, Sybren Drijfhout, Dmitry Sidorenko, Wilbert Weijer, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Xiaobiao Xu, Andrew E. Kiss, Paul Spence, Justin Small, Nikolay Koldunov, Sergey Danilov, Doroteaciro Iovino, Takao Kawasaki, Claus W. Böning, Stephen M. Griffies, Anne-Marie Tréguier, Jennifer Mecking, Bernard Barnier, Adam T. Blaker, Alice Marzocchi, LuAnne Thompson, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Dmitry Sein, Thierry Penduff, Ben Moat, Malcolm J. Roberts, Helene T. Hewitt, Klaus Getzlaff, Jean-Marc Molines, Andrew C. Coward, Laboratoire des Écoulements Géophysiques et Industriels [Grenoble] (LEGI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Ocean and Earth Science [Southampton], University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )
Subjects: Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Atlantic hurricane, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, high-resolution modeling, Mesoscale meteorology, Zonal and meridional, mesoscale, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Latitude, Ocean dynamics, Gulf Stream, Current (stream), Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, Geochemistry and Petrology, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Climatology, Stream function, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Geology, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climate system. Observations suggest a heat transport by the AMOC of 1.3 PW at 26°N-a latitude which is close to where the Atlantic northward heat transport is thought to reach its maximum. This shapes the climate of the North Atlantic region as we know it today. In recent years there has been significant progress both in our ability to observe the AMOC in nature and to simulate it in numerical models. Most previous modeling investigations of the AMOC and its impact on climate have relied on models with horizontal resolution that does not resolve ocean mesoscale eddies and the dynamics of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system. As a result of recent increases in computing power, models are now being run that are able to represent mesoscale ocean dynamics and the circulation features that rely on them. The aim of this review is to describe new insights into the AMOC provided by high-resolution models. Furthermore, we will describe how high-resolution model simulations can help resolve outstanding challenges in our understanding of the AMOC.
Published: 2020

44. Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Author: Fanghua Wu, Jasmin G. John, Jessica Y. Luo, Hongmei Li, Marion Gehlen, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Yool, Anastasia Romanou, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Sarah Berthet, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Lester Kwiatkowski, Alessandro Tagliabue, John P. Dunne, Yohei Takano, Charles A. Stock, Hiroyuki Tsujino, James R. Christian, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Hideyuki Nakano, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Tongwen Wu, Matthew C. Long, Julien Palmieri, Akitomo Yamamoto, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), School of Environmental Sciences [Liverpool], University of Liverpool, Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Beijing Climate Centre (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), H2020 COMFORT project under the grant agreement No 820989, European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), European Project: 817578,TRIATLAS(2019), European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Coupled model intercomparison project, Biogeochemical cycle, Current generation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Earth science, Climate change, Biogeochemistry, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Submarine groundwater discharge, Earth system science, Biogeochemistry-Climate Feedbacks, Model Performance, Component (UML), Marine Biogeochemistry, Environmental science, Carbon Cycle and Climate (K Zickfeld, JR Melton and N Lovenduski, Section Editors), CMIP5, 14. Life underwater, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, CMIP6, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Published: 2020

45. Insights from earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

Author: Daniel E. Horton, James T. Randerson, Mingfang Ting, Thomas L. Delworth, Pedro N. DiNezio, Shoshiro Minobe, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Flavio Lehner, Keith B. Rodgers, Arlene M. Fiore, John C. Fyfe, Jochem Marotzke, Isla R. Simpson, Clara Deser, Reto Knutti, Jennifer E. Kay, Toby R. Ault, Claude Frankignoul, Karen A. McKinnon, James A. Screen, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Cornell University [New York], NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Environmental Science and Management, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Atmospheric Sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, Initial value problem, Earth system model, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 0303 health sciences, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Extreme events, Climatic extremes, Radiative forcing, Climatic changes, Model complexity, Earth system science, Climate Action, Earth sciences, Internal variability, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, business, Earth sciences--Mathematical models, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. Climate change detection is confounded by internal variability, but recent initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) have begun addressing this issue. This Perspective discusses the value of multi-model LEs, the challenges of providing them and their role in future climate change research.
Published: 2020
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46. Extratropical–Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (Etin-Mip): Protocol and Initial Results

Author: Kang, S., Hawcroft, M., Xiang, B., Hwang, Y., Kim, H., Cazes, G., Codron, F., Crueger, T., Deser, C., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kim, J., Kosaka, Y., Losada, T., Mechoso, C., Myhre, G., Seland, Ø., Stevens, B., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3795-0475, Watanabe, M., Yu, S., Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), University of Exeter, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Taiwan University [Taiwan] (NTU), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology [Tokyo] (RCAST), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Departamento Fisica de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica [Madrid], Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), Yale University [New Haven], Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and University of California (UC)
Subjects: [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Abstract: ETIN-MIP is a community-wide effort to improve dynamical understanding of the linkages between tropical precipitation and radiative biases in various regions, with implications for anthropogenic climate change and geoengineering.This article introduces the Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (ETIN-MIP), where a set of fully coupled model experiments are designed to examine the sources of longstanding tropical precipitation biases in climate models. In particular, we reduce insolation over three targeted latitudinal bands of persistent model biases: the southern extratropics, the southern tropics and the northern extratropics. To address the effect of regional energy bias corrections on the mean distribution of tropical precipitation, such as the double Intertropical Convergence Zone problem, we evaluate the quasi-equilibrium response of the climate system corresponding to a 50-year period after the 100 years of prescribed energy perturbation. Initial results show that, despite a large inter-model spread in each perturbation experiment due to differences in ocean heat uptake response and climate feedbacks across models, the southern tropics is most efficient at driving a meridional shift of tropical precipitation. In contrast, the extratropical energy perturbations are effectively damped by anomalous heat uptake over the subpolar oceans, thereby inducing a smaller meridional shift of tropical precipitation compared with the tropical energy perturbations. The ETIN-MIP experiments allow us to investigate the global implications of regional energy bias corrections, providing a route to guide the practice of model development, with implications for understanding dynamical responses to anthropogenic climate change and geoengineering.
Published: 2019

47. The Value of Sustained Ocean Observations for Sea Ice Predictions in the Barents Sea

Author: Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, Matthew Harrison, Anthony Rosati, Rym Msadek, Xiaosong Yang, Rich Gudgel, State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA)-China Earthquake Administration (CEA), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, geography, Ocean observations, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Arctic ice pack, Data assimilation, Arctic, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Seasonal forecasting, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Sea ice, Environmental science, 14. Life underwater, Predictability, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constrained initial conditions are a key source of skill for these predictions, but the direct influence of different observation types on prediction skill has not yet been systematically investigated. In this work, we perform a hierarchy of observing system experiments with a coupled global data assimilation and prediction system to assess the value of different classes of oceanic and atmospheric observations for seasonal sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea. We find notable skill improvements due to the inclusion of both sea surface temperature (SST) satellite observations and subsurface conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) measurements. The SST data are found to provide the crucial source of interannual variability, whereas the CTD data primarily provide climatological and trend improvements. Analysis of the Barents Sea ocean heat budget suggests that ocean heat content anomalies in this region are driven by surface heat fluxes on seasonal time scales.
Published: 2019

48. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture

Author: Eric D. Galbraith, Lindsay Davidson, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Julia L. Blanchard, Tyler D. Eddy, Richard S. Cottrell, Elizabeth A. Fulton, William W. L. Cheung, Kirsty L. Nash, Reg Watson, Heike K. Lotze, Matthias Büchner, Olivier Maury, Christoph Müller, John P. Dunne, Joshua Elliott, Simon Jennings, Nicholas K. Dulvy, Derek P. Tittensor, David A. Carozza, Sea Around Us Project (SAUP), University of British Colombia, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), University of Chicago, Earth to Ocean Research Group (SFU), Simon Fraser University (SFU.ca), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), School of Geography, and University of North London
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Conservation of Natural Resources, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate Change, Fisheries, Aquaculture, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, 11. Sustainability, 14. Life underwater, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Sustainable development, Adaptive capacity, Food security, Ecology, business.industry, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, 1. No poverty, Capacity building, Agriculture, Biodiversity, 15. Life on land, Fishery, 13. Climate action, Sustainability, Food systems, Fisheries management, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: International audience; Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, biodiversity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting biodiversity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.
Published: 2017

49. Ocean Climate Observing Requirements in Support of Climate Research and Climate Information

Author: Detlef Stammer, Annalisa Bracco, Krishna AchutaRao, Lisa Beal, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Pascale Braconnot, Wenju Cai, Dake Chen, Matthew Collins, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Boris Dewitte, Riccardo Farneti, Baylor Fox-Kemper, John Fyfe, Stephen M. Griffies, Steven R. Jayne, Alban Lazar, Matthieu Lengaigne, Xiaopei Lin, Simon Marsland, Shoshiro Minobe, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Walter Robinson, Mathew Koll Roxy, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Sabrina Speich, Inga J. Smith, Amy Solomon, Andrea Storto, Ken Takahashi, Thomas Toniazzo, Jerome Vialard, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg (UHH), School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Atlanta], Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Centre for Atmospheric Sciences [New Delhi], Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies [Horbat] (IMAS), University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics (SOED), State Oceanic Administration (SOA), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Echanges Côte-Large (ECOLA), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Brown University, Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Centre for Climate Change Research [Pune] (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), CLIVAR, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies [Hobart] (IMAS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), University of Tasmania (UTAS), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and University of Bergen (UIB)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Ocean observations, Research program, Investigación oceanográfica, lcsh:QH1-199.5, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, satellite observations, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10 [https], Ocean Engineering, in situ measurements, lcsh:General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Aquatic Science, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Boundary (real estate), Hindcast, ocean modeling, Natural variability, Predictability, lcsh:Science, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, business.industry, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Environmental resource management, ocean observing system, in situ, Oceanic climate, Capacity building, Climatología, ocean climate, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.11 [https], 13. Climate action, earth observations, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, measurements, business, Satélite, climate information
Abstract: International audience; Natural variability and change of the Earth’s climate have significant global societal impacts. With its large heat and carbon capacity and relatively slow dynamics, the ocean plays an integral role in climate, and provides an important source of predictability at seasonal and longer timescales. In addition, the ocean provides the slowly evolving lower boundary to the atmosphere, driving, and modifying atmospheric weather. Understanding and monitoring ocean climate variability and change, to constrain and initialize models as well as identify model biases for improved climate hindcasting and prediction, requires a scale-sensitive, and long-term observing system. A climate observing system has requirements that significantly differ from, and sometimes are orthogonal to, those of other applications. In general terms, they can be summarized by the simultaneous need for both large spatial and long temporal coverage, and by the accuracy and stability required for detecting the local climate signals. This paper reviews the requirements of a climate observing system in terms of space and time scales, and revisits the question of which parameters such a system should encompass to meet future strategic goals of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), with emphasis on ocean and sea-ice covered areas. It considers global as well as regional aspects that should be accounted for in designing observing systems in individual basins. Furthermore, the paper discusses which data-driven products are required to meet WCRP research and modeling needs, and ways to obtain them through data synthesis and assimilation approaches. Finally, it addresses the need for scientific capacity building and international collaboration in support of the collection of high-quality measurements over the large spatial scales and long time-scales required for climate research, bridging the scientific rational to the required resources for implementation.
Published: 2019

50. Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level

Author: Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Marta Marcos, Gary Mitchum, R. S. W. van de Wal, Philip L. Woodworth, Michaël Ablain, Fabrice Ardhuin, Valérie Ballu, Mélanie Becker, Jérôme Benveniste, Florence Birol, Elizabeth Bradshaw, Anny Cazenave, P. De Mey-Frémaux, Fabien Durand, Tal Ezer, Lee-Lueng Fu, Ichiro Fukumori, Kathy Gordon, Médéric Gravelle, Stephen M. Griffies, Weiqing Han, Angela Hibbert, Chris W. Hughes, Déborah Idier, Villy H. Kourafalou, Christopher M. Little, Andrew Matthews, Angélique Melet, Mark Merrifield, Benoit Meyssignac, Shoshiro Minobe, Thierry Penduff, Nicolas Picot, Christopher Piecuch, Richard D. Ray, Lesley Rickards, Alvaro Santamaría-Gómez, Detlef Stammer, Joanna Staneva, Laurent Testut, Keith Thompson, Philip Thompson, Stefano Vignudelli, Joanne Williams, Simon D. P. Williams, Guy Wöppelmann, Laure Zanna, Xuebin Zhang, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER), University of Hamburg, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), Division Hydrographie Océanographie et Météorologie Militaire (HOM), Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine, LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs), Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agence Spatiale Européenne (ESA), European Space Agency (ESA), Echanges Côte-Large (ECOLA), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder] (ATOC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Bangor University, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Institute of Marine Sciences, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] (CNR), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agence Spatiale Européenne = European Space Agency (ESA), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), University of Oxford, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US), Australian Research Council, National Science Foundation (US), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, Natural Environment Research Council (UK), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, and European Commission
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, coastal impacts, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, integrated observing system, lcsh:QH1-199.5, coastal, Ocean Engineering, Aquatic Science, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), lcsh:General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Data assimilation, 14. Life underwater, impacts, lcsh:Science, Sea level, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, Global and Planetary Change, coastal sea level, business.industry, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Ocean current, Environmental resource management, Geodetic datum, Future sea level, sea-level trends, Current (stream), coastal adaptation, 13. Climate action, observational gaps, coastal ocean modeling, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Coastal impacts, business, Downscaling
Abstract: A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change., RP was funded by NASA grant NNH16CT00C. CD was supported by the Australian Research Council (FT130101532 and DP 160103130), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 148, funded by national SCOR committees and a grant to SCOR from the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1546580), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO/International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IOC/IODE) IQuOD Steering Group. SJ was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council under Grant Agreement No. NE/P01517/1 and by the EPSRC NEWTON Fund Sustainable Deltas Programme, Grant Number EP/R024537/1. RvdW received funding from NWO, Grant 866.13.001. WH was supported by NASA (NNX17AI63G and NNX17AH25G). CL was supported by NASA Grant NNH16CT01C. This work is a contribution to the PIRATE project funded by CNES (to TP). PT was supported by the NOAA Research Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through its sponsorship of UHSLC (NA16NMF4320058). JS was supported by EU contract 730030 (call H2020-EO-2016, “CEASELESS”). JW was supported by EU Horizon 2020 Grant 633211, Atlantos.
Published: 2019

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