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25. Energy Markets and Economics Ⅱ

Author

Narayan, Seema and Narayan, Seema

Subjects
Research & information: general
Abstract

Summary: This issue brings together a collection of papers that provide economic insights into the modern energy market, which is still dominated by crude oil but has expanded to incorporate new energy sources in the form of coal, natural gas, and a mixture of renewable energy sources. Given the differences in the dynamics at play with different energy sources, particularly in relation to price determination, the impact they have on the environment, their importance in the energy mix and energy policy, and so forth, it has become imperative to check their behavior using economic models. Papers 1-3 provide some perspective on oil price determination by focusing on the time-varying nature of supply shocks linked to oil producers (Paper 1), OPEC's announcements (2), and the heterogeneous interconnections of supply or demand shocks over time horizons and different countries (3). Papers 4-6 compare different energy sources within the energy market and other markets (4); explore the importance of energy storage in the electricity market (5); and examine the dynamic relationship between prices of substitutes (oil price) on the natural gas market in China (6). The final four studies examine the impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy on the macroeconomy and the environment.

33. The International Oil Price in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Evidence from BRICS and US.

Author

Jiang, Yong, Narayan, Seema, Ren, Yi-Shuai, and Ma, Chao-Qun

Subjects
COVID-19 pandemic, PETROLEUM sales & prices, PETROLEUM distribution, COINTEGRATION, QUANTILES
Abstract

This study applies a quantile cointegration model to investigate if COVID-19 outbreaks in the BRICS (China, India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa) and the United States have a long-run equilibrium relationship with the dynamics of oil prices. (1) The standard cointegration models are unstable, indicating the possibility of structural breaks and nonlinearity in the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and oil prices; (2) The results of the quantile cointegration model suggest the COVID-19 pandemic and oil prices are nearly cointegrated over whole quantiles of the oil price distribution for the United States, Russia, South Africa, and Brazil. However, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and oil prices in China is more likely to occur in the lower quantiles of the oil price distribution; (3) For India, the equilibrium link exists only across the two higher quantiles (0.7 and 0.8 quantiles) of the oil price distribution. Finally, our research has significant policy implications for the governments of the world's largest countries that are concerned about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak on oil prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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43. DO TERRORIST ATTACKS IMPACT EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR? NEW INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Author

Narayan, Paresh Kumar, Narayan, Seema, Khademalomoom, Siroos, and Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach

Subjects
Foreign exchange rates -- Analysis, Terrorism -- Models -- Influence -- Analysis, Stock markets -- Prices and rates -- Models -- Analysis, Stock market, Business, general, Economics
Abstract

This study examines whether terrorist attacks affect bilateral exchange rates. Using historical 10-minute exchange rate data for 21 countries' currency vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar, we show that exchange rate returns of all countries are statistically significantly affected by terrorist attacks. Some exchange rates appreciate and some depreciate following a terrorist attack, some currencies experience exchange rate reversals while others experience a persistent effect. Generally, the effect declines but persists as terrorist attacks become stale information. (JEL F31, F37), I. INTRODUCTION Terrorism has had a lasting impact on economies and financial markets. The literature on this is rich (see, inter alia, Arin, Ciferri, and Spagnolo 2008; Brounen and Derwall [...]

Published
2018
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