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The lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the equatorward flow of dense waters that have been transformed due to the cooling and freshening of the poleward-flowing upper limb. In the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), upper limb variability is primarily set by the North Atlantic Current, whereas lower limb variability is less well understood, particularly at subseasonal timescales. Using observations from a SPNA mooring array, we show that variability of the AMOC’s lower limb is connected to poleward flow in the interior Irminger Sea. We identify this flow as the northward branch of the Irminger Gyre (IG), accounting for 55% of the AMOC’s lower limb variability on monthly timescales. Further, wind stress curl fluctuations over the Labrador and Irminger Seas drives the IG and AMOC variability on monthly timescales. On interannual timescales, however, increasing thickness of intermediate water within the Irminger Sea coincides with decreasing IG recirculation.

Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic. Thus, in this study, we examine the extent to which North Atlantic freshwater anomalies constrain the subsequent ocean-atmosphere evolution and assess their implications for European summer weather. Combining remote sensing, atmospheric reanalyses and model simulations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with sharper sea surface temperature gradients over the North Atlantic in winter, destabilising the overlying atmosphere and inducing a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current. In turn, the jet stream over the North Atlantic is deflected northward in the following summers, leading to warmer and drier weather over Europe. Our results suggest that growing freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic will increase the risk of heat waves and droughts over the coming decades, and could yield enhanced predictability of European summer weather, months to years in advance.

The overturning streamfunction as measured at the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) mooring array represents the transformation of warm, salty Atlantic Water into cold, fresh North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The magnitude of the overturning at the OSNAP array can therefore be linked to the transformation by air–sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing in the region north of the OSNAP array. Here, we estimate these water mass transformations using observational-based, reanalysis-based and model-based datasets. Our results highlight that air–sea fluxes alone cannot account for the time-mean magnitude of the overturning at OSNAP, and therefore a residual mixing-driven transformation is required to explain the difference. A cooling by air–sea heat fluxes and a mixing-driven freshening in the Nordic Seas, Iceland Basin and Irminger Sea precondition the warm, salty Atlantic Water, forming subpolar mode water classes in the subpolar North Atlantic. Mixing in the interior of the Nordic Seas, over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge and along the boundaries of the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin drive a water mass transformation that leads to the convergence of volume in the water mass classes associated with NADW. Air–sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing therefore play key and complementary roles in setting the magnitude of the overturning within the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. This study highlights that, for ocean and climate models to realistically simulate the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic, the small-scale processes that lead to the mixing-driven formation of NADW must be adequately represented within the model's parameterisation scheme.

The connections between the overturning of the subpolar North Atlantic and regional density changes are assessed on interannual and decadal timescales using historical, data-based reconstructions of the overturning over the last 60 years and forward model integrations with buoyancy and wind forcing. The data-based reconstructions reveal a dominant eastern basin contribution to the subpolar overturning in density space and changes in the overturning reaching ±2.5 Sv, which are both in accord with the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP). The zonally integrated geostrophic velocity across the basin is connected to boundary contrasts in Montgomery potential in density space. The overturning for the eastern side of the basin is strongly correlated with density changes in the Irminger and Labrador Seas, while the overturning for the western side is correlated with boundary density changes in the Labrador Sea. These boundary density signals are a consequence of local atmospheric forcing and transport of upstream density changes. In forward model experiments, a localized density increase over the Irminger Sea increases the overturning over both sides of the basin due to dense waters spreading to the Labrador Sea. Conversely, a localized density increase over the Labrador Sea only increases the overturning for the western basin and instead eventually decreases the overturning for the eastern basin. Labrador Sea density provides a useful overturning metric by its direct control of the overturning over the western side and lower latitudes of the subpolar basin.

While reasonable knowledge of multidecadal Arctic freshwater storage variability exists, we have little knowledge of Arctic freshwater exports on similar time scales. A hydrographic time series from the Labrador Shelf, spanning seven decades at annual resolution, is here used to quantify Arctic Ocean freshwater export variability west of Greenland. Output from a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model is used to establish the representativeness of those hydrographic sections. Clear annual to decadal variability emerges, with high freshwater transports during the 1950s and 1970s–80s, and low transports in the 1960s and from the mid-1990s to 2016, with typical amplitudes of 30 mSv (1 Sv = 106m3s−1). The variability in both the transports and cumulative volumes correlates well both with Arctic and North Atlantic freshwater storage changes on the same time scale. We refer to the “inshore branch” of the Labrador Current as the Labrador Coastal Current, because it is a dynamically and geographically distinct feature. It originates as the Hudson Bay outflow, and preserves variability from river runoff into the Hudson Bay catchment. We find a need for parallel, long-term freshwater transport measurements from Fram and Davis Straits to better understand Arctic freshwater export control mechanisms and partitioning of variability between routes west and east of Greenland, and a need for better knowledge and understanding of year-round (solid and liquid) freshwater fluxes on the Labrador shelf. Our results have implications for wider, coherent atmospheric control on freshwater fluxes and content across the Arctic Ocean and northern North Atlantic Ocean.

Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Published theories for the mechanisms driving the freshening include: reduced transport of saltier, warmer surface waters northwards from the subtropics associated with reduced meridional overturning; shifts in the pathways of fresher, cooler surface water from the Labrador Sea driven by changing patterns of wind stress; and the eastward expansion of the subpolar gyre. Using output from a high-resolution hindcast model simulation, we propose that the primary cause of the exceptional freshening and cooling is reduced surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea. Tracking virtual fluid particles in the model backwards from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic between 1990 and 2020 shows the major cause of the freshening and cooling to be an increased outflow of relatively fresh and cold surface waters from the Labrador Sea; with a minor contribution from reduced transport of warmer, saltier surface water northward from the subtropics. The cooling, but not the freshening, produced by changing proportions of source waters is mitigated by reduced along-track heat loss to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic Current. We analyse modelled boundary exchanges and water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea to show that since 2000, while inflows of lighter surface waters remain steady, the increasing output of these waters is due to reduced surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea beginning in the early 2000s. Tracking particles further upstream reveals the primary source of the increased volume of lighter water transported out of the Labrador Sea is increased recirculation of water, and therefore longer residence times, in the upper 500–1000 m of the subpolar gyre.

The overturning streamfunction as measured at the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) mooring array represents the transformation of warm/salty Atlantic Water into cold/fresh North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The magnitude and variability of the overturning at the OSNAP mooring array can therefore be linked to the water mass transformation by air-sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing in the region to the north of the OSNAP array. Here, we estimate these water mass transformations using a combination of observational-based, reanalysis-based and model-based datasets. Our results highlight the complementary roles of air-sea buoyancy flues and mixing in setting the time-mean magnitude of the overturning at OSNAP. A cooling by air-sea heat fluxes and a mixing-driven freshening in the Nordics Seas, Iceland basin and Irminger basin, precondition the warm/salty Atlantic Water, forming subpolar mode water classes. Mixing in the interior of the Nordic Seas, over the Greenland-Scotland ridge and along the boundaries of the Irminger and Iceland basins drive a water mass transformation that leads to the convergence of volume in the water mass classes associated with NADW. In contrast to the time-mean magnitude, the seasonal variability of the overturning streamfunction at OSNAP cannot be linked to changes in the transformation by air-sea fluxes and mixing. The seasonal variability of air-sea fluxes and mixing greatly exceed the seasonal variability measured in the overturning at OSNAP. This implies that water mass transformation anomalies in the region to the north of the OSNAP array don't manifest as overturning variability at the latitude of the OSNAP array on seasonal timescales. Air-sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing therefore play key and complementary roles in setting the overturning within the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. Further, this study highlights that for climate models to realistically simulate the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic, the small scale processes that lead to the mixing-driven formation of NADW must be adequately represented within the model's parameterisation scheme.

The mooring observations of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program reveal a significant freshening of the Iceland Scotland overflow waters that did not involve the Nordic Seas, the source of the dense Deep North Atlantic Water (Devana et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094396). Their study suggests that this freshening at depth in the Iceland Basin stems from the largest upper-ocean freshening event in 120 years that rapidly communicated through entrainment with the Iceland Scotland Overflow Waters. This communication, which is very likely driven by strong wintertime heat losses, strongly adds to our thinking that the progression of this extreme freshening event is providing us with a natural tracer that is helping to identify and understand key processes that determine the strength and variability of the overturning circulation and its sensitivity to ongoing climate change. Continued monitoring of the overturning in the North Atlantic is therefore necessary.

Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying dynamical mechanisms remain elusive, however. Here, we demonstrate a novel mechanism linking freshwater releases into the North Atlantic with summer weather in Europe. Combining remote sensing, atmospheric reanalyses and model simulations, we show that freshwater events in summer trigger progressively sharper sea surface temperature gradients in subsequent winters, destabilising the overlying atmosphere and inducing a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current. In turn, the jet stream over the North Atlantic is deflected northward in the following summers, leading to warmer and drier weather over Europe. Our results suggest that growing Arctic freshwater fluxes will increase the risk of heat waves and droughts over the coming decades, and could yield enhanced predictability of European summer weather, months to years in advance.

Recent mooring measurements from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program have revealed abundant cyclonic eddies at both sides of Cape Farewell, the southern tip of Greenland. In this study, we present further observational evidence, from both Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives, of deep cyclonic eddies with intense rotation (𝜁/f > 1) around southern Greenland and into the Labrador Sea. Most of the observed cyclones exhibit strongest rotation below the surface (700-1000 dbar), where maximum azimuthal velocities are ~30 cm/s at radii of ~10 km, with rotational periods of 2-3 days. The cyclonic rotation can extend to the deep overflow water layer (below 1800 dbar), albeit with weaker azimuthal velocities (~10 cm/s) and longer rotational periods of about one week. Within the mid-depth rotation cores, the cyclones are in near solid-body rotation and have the potential to trap and transport water. The first high-resolution hydrographic transect across such a cyclone indicates that it is characterized by a local (both vertically and horizontally) potential vorticity maximum in its core and cold, fresh anomalies in the overflow water layer, suggesting its source as the Denmark Strait outflow. Additionally, the propagation and evolution of the cyclonic eddies are illustrated with deep Lagrangian floats, including their detachments from the boundary currents to the basin interior. Taken together, the combined Eulerian and Lagrangian observations have provided new insights on the boundary current variability and boundary-interior exchange over a geographically large scale near southern Greenland, calling for further investigations on the (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the region.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is pivotal for regional and global climate due to its key role in the uptake and redistribution of heat and carbon. Establishing the causes of historical variability in AMOC strength on different timescales can tell us how the circulation may respond to natural and anthropogenic changes at the ocean surface. However, understanding observed AMOC variability is challenging because the circulation is influenced by multiple factors that co-vary and whose overlapping impacts persist for years. Here we reconstruct and unambiguously attribute intermonthly and interannual AMOC variability at two observational arrays to the recent history of surface wind stress, temperature and salinity. We use a state-of-the-art technique that computes space- and time-varying sensitivity patterns of the AMOC strength with respect to multiple surface properties from a numerical ocean circulation model constrained by observations. While, on interannual timescales, AMOC variability at 26° N is overwhelmingly dominated by a linear response to local wind stress, overturning variability at subpolar latitudes is generated by the combined effects of wind stress and surface buoyancy anomalies. Our analysis provides a quantitative attribution of subpolar AMOC variability to temperature, salinity and wind anomalies at the ocean surface. Wind stress controls annual variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at mid-latitudes, while surface buoyancy also matters at subpolar latitudes, according to an attribution analysis using a numerical model constrained by observational array data.

The Labrador Sea is an important site for deep convection, and the boundary current surrounding the Sea impacts the strength of this convection and the subsequent restratification. As part of the Overturning of the Subpolar North Atlantic Program, ten moorings have been maintained on the West Greenland shelf and slope that provide hourly, high-resolution renderings of the boundary current. These data reveal the presence and propagation of abundant mid-depth intensified cyclonic eddies, which have not previously been documented in the West Greenland boundary current system. This study quantifies these features and their structure and demonstrates that they are the downstream manifestation of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) cyclones. Using the mooring data, the statistics of these features are presented, a composite eddy is constructed, and the velocity and transport structure are described. A synoptic survey of the region captured two of these features, and provides further insight into their structure and timing. This is the first time DSOW cyclones have been observed in the Labrador Sea, and their presence, propagation, and transport must be accounted for in order to assess their contribution to the heat and freshwater budgets of the Labrador Sea interior.

The OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) array at ~60°N has provided new and unprecedented insight into the strength and variability of the meridional overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. OSNAP has identified the region of the subpolar North Atlantic east of Greenland as a key region for the water mass transformation and densification that sets the strength and variability of the overturning circulation. Here, we will investigate the drivers of this water mass transformation and their roles in driving the overturning circulation at OSNAP. Using a water mass analysis on both model-based and observational-based datasets, we isolate diathermal (across surfaces of constant temperature) and diahaline (across surfaces of constant salinity) transformations due to air-sea buoyancy fluxes, and mixing. We show that the time-mean overturning strength is set by both the air-sea buoyancy fluxes and the strength of subsurface mixing. This balance is apparent on a seasonal timescale, where we resolve large seasonal fluctuations in the both the air-sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing. The residual of this seasonal cycle then corresponds to the mean overturning strength. On interannual timescales, mixing becomes the dominant driver of variability in the overturning circulation. To determine the location of these water mass transformations and the dynamical processes responsible for the mixing-driven variability, our water mass analysis is projected onto geographical coordinates.

Abundant cyclonic eddies are observed to travel along the Deep Western Boundary Current around Greenland by Lagrangian floats, hydrographic stations and moorings. Most of the cyclones have intensified rotations below the surface (700-1000 dbar), with maximum azimuthal velocities of ~30 cm/s at radii of ~10 km. The swift rotation and small radius lead to a relatively large Rossby number (~0.4), suggesting important contributions from the ageostrophic terms. The subsurface rotational core is also characterized with a local (both vertically and horizontally) potential vorticity (PV) maximum, which is associated with the pinching of isopycnals towards the mid-depths (i.e. high stratification). The PV structure suggests the origin of the cyclone as the Denmark Strait Overflow Cyclone. The latter is known to be formed by vortex stretching southwest of the Denmark Strait, where outflow waters with high PV from the sill descends the continental slope into the low PV Irminger Sea. Finally, we show that these cyclones can influence the boundary currents around Greenland by introducing property anomalies that originate from the Denmark Strait.

Recent decades have been characterised by amplified Arctic warming and increased occurrence of extreme weather events in the North Atlantic region. While earlier studies noticed statistical links between high-latitude warming and mid-latitude weather extremes, the underlying dynamical connections remained elusive. Combining different data products, I will demonstrate a new mechanism linking Arctic ice losses with cold anomalies and storms in the subpolar region in winter, and with heat waves and droughts over Europe summer. Considering feedbacks of the identified mechanism on the Arctic Ocean circulation, I will further present new support for the potential of Arctic warming to trigger a rapid change in climate.

The Labrador Sea’s surface circulation remains important for the large-scale thermohaline circulation due to its fast response to atmospheric forcing and strong links to the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean’s counterparts. Its role in redistribution of heat and momentum, as well as for the biochemical exchange with the atmosphere is crucial in several time and space scales. The region is characterised by advection of freshwater originating from the combined melt of the Arctic Ocean’s sea-ice and Greenland’s glaciers around and towards the interior of the Labrador Sea. The fate of surface freshwater is an important factor that modifies ocean stratification, deep water convection and thus, ocean climate. Despite the major role of surface freshwater in the Labrador Sea, the dominant mechanism responsible for its offshore transport remains debatable, whether it is due to wind-induced Ekman transport, particularly strong in winter, or to eddy advection.To explore this disagreement, we use surface drifters deployed in three seasons: 50 in December 2019, 50 in March 2020 and 50 in August 2020 in the shelf/slope location off Cape Desolation and near Qaqortoq, a town in the south-west Greenland. The drifters are equipped with temperature sensors and underwater drogues allowing them to follow the cyclonic surface currents: first, the along-shelf, coastal current and along-slope, boundary current west of Greenland; then, if they are able to detach from the shelf edge, the interior circulation of the central Labrador Sea that directs them south-westward from the Davis Strait; eventually, joining the coastal and along-slope boundary currents east of Labrador before circulating into the Labrador Sea’s central basins or eventually leaving the study area.To investigate the dominant force responsible for the surface transport we use a wind product (ERA5) in a combination with daily SST (OSTIA). Detachment from boundary current is defined as crossing of the 2500 m isobath. The number of crossings varies depending on the season and weather conditions, e.g. an abrupt change in wind direction. This, in turn, may create upwelling of deep-water masses near the shelf-break. However, trajectories of drifters superimposed on SST maps indicate that besides Ekman transport, eddies carry shelf-originating water offshore as well. Auxiliary data from below (Argo floats and other CTD profiles collected near the drifters) allow to distinguish how deep both processes can leave their signature or whether they can drive a return flow.If any substantial changes in the North Atlantic wind field occur in the future, the fate of the surface water transport in the Labrador Sea will also change, both in respect to its volume and direction. This could potentially affect the balance between Ekman transport and eddies revealed by our analysis of surface drifters data.

Fresh Arctic waters flowing into the Atlantic are thought to have two primary fates. They may be mixed into the deep ocean as part of the overturning circulation, or flow alongside regions of deep water formation without impacting overturning. Climate models suggest that as increasing amounts of freshwater enter the Atlantic, the overturning circulation will be disrupted, yet we lack an understanding of how much freshwater is mixed into the overturning circulation’s deep limb in the present day. To constrain these freshwater pathways, we build steady-state volume, salt, and heat budgets east of Greenland that are initialized with observations and closed using inverse methods. Freshwater sources are split into oceanic Polar Waters from the Arctic and surface freshwater fluxes, which include net precipitation, runoff, and ice melt, to examine how they imprint the circulation differently. We find that 65 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of the total 110 mSv of surface freshwater fluxes that enter our domain participate in the overturning circulation, as do 0.6 Sv of the total 1.2 Sv of Polar Waters that flow through Fram Strait. Based on these results, we hypothesize that the overturning circulation is more sensitive to future changes in Arctic freshwater outflow and precipitation, while Greenland runoff and iceberg melt are more likely to stay along the coast of Greenland.

Outflows of low-salinity waters from the Arctic to the upper layers of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) are central in redistributing freshwater from river runoff, melting sea ice, and precipitation. They act to reduce shallow, as well as deep, convection; thereby affecting both biological production and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The two main sources of low-salinity water to the SPNA are the flows through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and through the Denmark Strait. A potential additional source of low-salinity water is the shelf/slope region south of Iceland, mainly fed by Icelandic runoff. Normally this water passes into the Nordic Seas, but in some periods, it may instead flow into the upper layers of the central parts of the Iceland Basin in the eastern SPNA. This low-salinity water has previously been overlooked as a freshwater supply to the SPNA. Using a range of observational data sets, we show that the conditions for a diversion of this water mass from the south Iceland shelf into the Iceland Basin were favourable during the 2014–2018 period. In those years the Iceland Basin became extraordinarily fresh, characterized by surface salinity lower than previously seen in a 120-year long time series. The event is thought to have been mainly caused by unusual winter wind stress patterns that diverted freshwater from the western SPNA to the eastern basin and caused a zonal shift of the subpolar front. Here, we show that the low-salinity signal near the surface was locally reinforced in the central Iceland Basin by anomalous diversion of low-salinity water originating in the shallow shelf areas south of Iceland and that this can help explain why the surface salinity of the Iceland Basin became so exceptionally low. The diversion was generated by anomalous wind conditions over the Iceland Basin and caused slightly enhanced freshening of the warm waters crossing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge from the SPNA into the Nordic Seas. The low-salinity Icelandic-source water also increased the near-surface stratification and reduced the depth of convection in the Iceland Basin during two consecutive winters with reduced nutrient renewal of near-surface waters as a consequence. Although especially pronounced after 2014, this extra freshwater input probably occurs more generally, which may help explain why the central Iceland Basin may be an oligotrophic region, as has previously been suggested.

Continuous measurements from the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) array yield the first estimates of trans-basin heat and salinity transports in the subpolar latitudes. For the period from August 2014 to May 2018, there is a poleward heat transport of 0.50 ± 0.05 PW and a poleward salinity transport of 12.5 ± 1.0 Sv across the OSNAP section. Based on the mass and salt budget analyses, we estimate that a surface freshwater input of 0.36 ± 0.05 Sv over the broad subpolar-Arctic region is needed to balance the ocean salinity change created by the OSNAP transports. The overturning circulation is largely responsible for setting these heat and salinity transports (and the derived surface freshwater input) derived from the OSNAP array, while the gyre (isopycnal) circulation contributes to a lesser, but still significant, extent. Despite its relatively weak overturning and heat transport, the Labrador Sea is a strong contributor to salinity and freshwater changes in the subpolar region. Combined with trans-basin transport estimates at other locations, we provide new estimates for the time-mean surface heat and freshwater divergences over a wide domain of the Arctic-North Atlantic region to the north and south of the OSNAP line. Furthermore, we estimate the total heat and freshwater exchanges across the surface area of the extratropical North Atlantic between the OSNAP and the RAPID-MOCHA (RAPID Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat-flux Array) arrays, by combining the cross-sectional transports with vertically-integrated ocean heat and salinity content. Comparisons with the air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes from atmospheric reanalysis products show an overall consistency, yet with notable differences in the magnitudes during the observation time period.

The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the climate system because it carries heat and carbon northward, and from the surface to the deep ocean. The high salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic is a prerequisite for overturning circulation, and strong freshening could herald a slowdown. We show that the eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a magnitude never seen before in 120 years of measurements. The cause was unusual winter wind patterns driving major changes in ocean circulation, including slowing of the North Atlantic Current and diversion of Arctic freshwater from the western boundary into the eastern basins. We find that wind-driven routing of Arctic-origin freshwater intimately links conditions on the North West Atlantic shelf and slope region with the eastern subpolar basins. This reveals the importance of atmospheric forcing of intra-basin circulation in determining the salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic., The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the global climate system. Here the authors show that eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a magnitude never seen before in 120 years of surface measurements.

The Rockall Trough is one of the main conduits for warm Atlantic Water to the Nordic Seas. Ocean heat anomalies, originating from the eastern subpolar gyre, are known to influence Arctic sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and continental climate. Knowledge of the transport through this basin has previously been limited to estimates from hydrographic sections which cannot characterise the intra‐annual and multi‐annual variability. As part of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Programme (OSNAP), a mooring array was deployed in the Rockall Trough in order to obtain the first continuous measurements of transport. Here, we define the methodology and the errors associated with estimating these transports. Results show a 4‐year mean northward transport of 6.6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) by the North Atlantic Current (NAC) in the east and interior of the Rockall Trough (2014‐2018). A mean transport of ‐2.0 Sv (southward) is observed in the west of the basin, which could be part of a recirculation around the Rockall Plateau. The 90‐day low‐pass filtered transport shows large sub‐annual and inter‐annual variability (‐1.6 Sv to 9.1 Sv), mostly resulting from changes in the mid‐basin geostrophic transport. Satellite altimetry reveals the periods of low and high transport are associated with significant changes in the Rockall Trough circulation. There is a detectable seasonal signal, with the greatest transport in spring and autumn.

The strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic is dependent upon the formation of dense waters that occurs at high northern latitudes. Wintertime deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas forms the intermediate water mass known as Labrador Sea Water (LSW). Changes in the rate of formation and subsequent export of LSW are thought to play a role in MOC variability, but formation rates are uncertain and the link between formation and export is complex. We present the first observation-based application of a recently developed regional thermohaline inverse method (RTHIM) to a region encompassing the Arctic and part of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for the years 2013, 2014, and 2015. RTHIM is a novel method that can diagnose the formation and export rates of water masses such as the LSW identified by their temperature and salinity, apportioning the formation rates into contributions from surface fluxes and interior mixing. We find LSW formation rates of up to 12 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) during 2014–15, a period of strong wintertime convection, and around half that value during 2013 when convection was weak. We also show that the newly convected water is not exported directly, but instead is mixed isopycnally with warm, salty waters that have been advected into the region, before the products are then exported. RTHIM solutions for 2015 volume, heat, and freshwater transports are compared with observations from a mooring array deployed for the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) and show good agreement, lending validity to our results.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is pivotal for regional and global climate due to its key role in the uptake and redistribution of heat, carbon and other tracers. Establishing the causes of historical variability in the AMOC can tell us how the circulation responds to natural and anthropogenic changes at the ocean surface. However, attributing observed AMOC variability and inferring causal relationships is challenging because the circulation is influenced by multiple factors which co-vary and whose overlapping impacts can persist for years. Here we reconstruct and unambiguously attribute variability in the AMOC at the latitudes of two observational arrays to the recent history of surface wind stress, temperature and salinity. We use a state-of-the-art technique that computes space- and time-varying sensitivity patterns of the AMOC strength with respect to multiple surface properties from a numerical ocean circulation model constrained by observations. While on inter-annual timescales, AMOC variability at 26°N is overwhelmingly dominated by a linear response to local wind stress, in contrast, AMOC variability at subpolar latitudes is generated by both wind stress and surface temperature and salinity anomalies. Our analysis allows us to obtain the first-ever reconstruction of subpolar AMOC from forcing anomalies at the ocean surface.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucially important in the global climate system due to its role in the meridional heat and freshwater distribution. Model simulations and constructed AMOC indices suggest that the AMOC may have been weakening for decades. However, direct AMOC observations, introduced in 2004 in the subtropics (the RAPID program) and in 2014 in the subpolar North Atlantic (the OSNAP program), are not sufficiently long to capture changes dating back to previous periods. Here we use repeated hydrographic sections in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic through the early 1990s to the mid-2010s, combined with a box inverse model that is constrained using satellite altimetry, to analyze hydrographic changes and the AMOC. In combination with a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, GECCO2, we show that despite dramatic hydrographic changes in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic over the past two and half decades, the AMOC has not significantly weakened over the same period. Our hydrography-based estimates also illustrate a remarkably stable partition of the subpolar overturning between the Labrador basin and the eastern subpolar basins on decadal timescales since the 1990s.

The initial 2 years of Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program mooring data (2014–2016) provide the first glimpse into the seasonality of freshwater in the complete East Greenland Current system. Using a set of eight moorings southeast of Greenland at 60∘ N, we find two distinct, persistent velocity cores on the shelf and slope. These are the East Greenland Coastal Current, which carries cold, fresh water from the Arctic and Greenland along the shelf, and the East Greenland/Irminger Current over the slope, which is a combination of cold, fresh waters and warm, salty waters of Atlantic origin. Together, these currents carry 70% of the freshwater transport across the subpolar North Atlantic east of Greenland. The freshwater transport referenced to a salinity of 34.9 is approximately equipartitioned between the coastal current (East Greenland Coastal Current) and the fresh portion of the slope current (East Greenland Current), which carry 42 ± 6 and 32 ± 6 mSv, respectively. The coastal and slope current freshwater transports have staggered seasonality during the observed period, peaking in December and March, respectively, suggesting that summer surveys have underestimated freshwater transport in this region. We find that the continental slope is freshest in the winter, when surface cooling mixes freshwater off the shelf. This previously unmeasured freshwater over the slope is likely to enter the Labrador Sea downstream, where it can impact deep convection.

Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, and many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. As the changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the climate and air quality of the surrounding continents, it is important to fully understand how and why the changes are taking place, not least to predict how the region will change in the future. To this end, this article characterizes the recent observed changes in the North Atlantic region, especially in the period 2005–2016, across many different aspects of the system including: atmospheric circulation; atmospheric composition; clouds and aerosols; ocean circulation and properties; and the cryosphere. Recent changes include: an increase in the speed of the North Atlantic jet stream in winter; a southward shift in the North Atlantic jet stream in summer, associated with a weakening summer North Atlantic Oscillation; increases in ozone and methane; increases in net absorbed radiation in the mid‐latitude western Atlantic, linked to an increase in the abundance of high level clouds and a reduction in low level clouds; cooling of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, concomitant with increases in the western subtropical gyre, and a decline in the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation; a decline in Atlantic sector Arctic sea ice and rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. There are many interactions between these changes, but these interactions are poorly understood. This article concludes by highlighting some of the key outstanding questions.

The ocean’s role in global climate change largely depends on its heat transport. Therefore, understanding the oceanic meridional heat transport (MHT) variability is a fundamental issue. Prevailing observational and modeling evidence suggests that MHT variability is primarily determined by the large-scale ocean circulation. Here, using new in situ observations in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic Ocean and an eddy-resolving numerical model, we show that energetic mesoscale eddies with horizontal scales of about 10–100 km profoundly modulate MHT variability on time scales from intra-seasonal to interannual. Our results reveal that the velocity changes due to mesoscale processes produce substantial variability for the MHT regionally (within sub-basins) and the subpolar North Atlantic as a whole. The findings have important implications for understanding the mechanisms for poleward heat transport variability in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, a key region for heat and carbon sequestration, ice–ocean interaction, and biological productivity.

The ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) Working Group on Oceanic Hydrography (WGOH) was established in the late 1970’s with the aim of gathering experts in physical oceanography to provide regular science-based assessments of the North Atlantic hydrographical condition (basically termohaline fields). From the beginning, the WGOH has relied on repeated long-term in-situ sampling at key sites around the North Atlantic, the Nordic Seas and adjacent shelf seas. An annual Report on Ocean Climate (IROC), produced by the WGOH since the late 1990’s, summarizes trends in regional hydrography and identifies patterns linking these changes across the North Atlantic. Regional analyses are prepared by local experts who are directly involved in the monitoring programs responsible for collecting data presented in the report. An interactive webpage created in 2013 allows users to browse and download data that inform the IROC. Within the last two decades the physical oceanography community has evolved quickly incorporating technological advances such as autonomous devices into classical in-situ sampling programs. The WGOH has embraced such technological developments without diverting focus from ongoing in-situ long-term monitoring programs. Having longstanding experience synthesizing data and expertise from a large number of operational programs spanning an extensive international footprint, the WGOH has a unique perspective to offer the global ocean observing community. Here we discuss how we might foster connections with ICES to benefit the GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) community., Sí

The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here, we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship-based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy-resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional-scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5 to 1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7 to 14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

A regional thermohaline inverse method (RTHIM) is presented that estimates velocities through the section bounding an enclosed domain and transformation rates resulting from interior mixing within the domain, given inputs of surface boundary fluxes of heat and salt and interior distributions of salinity and temperature. The method works by invoking a volumetric balance in thermohaline coordinates between the transformation resulting from mixing, surface fluxes, and advection, and constraining the mixing to be down tracer gradients. The method is validated using a 20-yr mean of outputs from the NEMO model in an Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic domain, bound to the south by a section with a mean latitude of 66°N. RTHIM solutions agree well with the NEMO model “truth” and are robust to a range of parameters; the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), heat, and freshwater transports calculated from an ensemble of RTHIM solutions are within 12%, 10%, and 19%, respectively, of the NEMO values. There is also bulk agreement between RTHIM solution transformation rates resulting from mixing and those diagnosed from NEMO. Localized differences in diagnosed mixing may be used to guide the development of mixing parameterizations in models such as NEMO, whose downgradient diffusive closures with prescribed diffusivity may be considered oversimplified and too restrictive.

The growth, distribution, and variability of phytoplankton populations in the North Atlantic are primarily controlled by the physical environment. This chapter provides an overview of the regional circulation of the North Atlantic, and an introduction to the key physical features and processes that affect ecosystems, and especially plankton, via the availability of light and nutrients. There is a natural seasonal cycle in primary production driven by physical processes that determine the light and nutrient levels, but the pattern has strong regional variations. The variations are determined by persistent features on the basin scale (e.g. the main currents and mixed layer regimes of the subtropical and subpolar gyres), as well as transient mesoscale features such as eddies and meanders of fronts.

Water mass analysis reveals a persistent core of deep overflow water within the Rockall Trough which hugs the northern and western boundaries of the basin. Mean speeds within this overflow are 10–15 cm s−1 giving a transport time from the Wyville Thomson Ridge to the central basin of < 50 days. Analysis of the 40-year Extended Ellett Line record shows proportions of Norwegian Sea Deep Water associated with the deep core exceed 15% around one quarter of the time. We present the first transport estimates for overflow water in the Rockall Trough. This flux is for overflow water modified by mixing with a density greater than 27.65 kg m−3. Mean values calculated both from a newly deployed mooring array (OSNAP project) and indirectly from the Extended Ellett Line time-series are −0.3 ± 0.04 Sv. Although the flux is highly variable there is no long term trend. As some overflow appears to exit into the Iceland Basin via channels between the northern banks, we suggest that the volume transport will likely increase as the flow pathway is traced back around the boundary of the Rockall Trough towards the Wyville Thomson Ridge.

The East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) is characterized as cold, low-salinity polar waters flowing equatorward on the east Greenland shelf. It is an important conduit of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean, but our present understanding of it is poor, outside of an assortment of measurements which stem mainly from summertime visits by research vessels. This manuscript first describes measurements from moored instruments deployed on the East Greenland shelf (∼63°N) between 2000 and 2004. The measurements are then used to show that a high-resolution coupled ice-ocean global general circulation model supports a realistic representation of the EGCC. The results show that the EGCC exists throughout the year and is stronger in winter than in summer. The model EGCC seawater transports are a maximum (minimum) in February (August), at 3.8 (1.9) × 106 m3 s−1. Freshwater transports, including modeled estimates of sea ice transport and referenced to salinity 35.0, are a maximum (minimum) in February (August) at 106 (59) × 103 m3 s−1. The model results show that wind and buoyancy forcing are of similar importance to EGCC transport. An empirical decomposition of the buoyancy-forced transport into a buoyancy-only component and a coupled wind and buoyancy component indicates the two to be of similar magnitude in winter. The model annual mean freshwater flux of ∼80–90 × 103 m3 s−1 approaches 50% of the net rate of Arctic freshwater gain, underlining the climatic importance of the EGCC.

In summer and autumn 2010, a highly anomalous phytoplankton bloom, with chlorophyll concentration more than double that of previous years, was observed in the Irminger Basin, southwest of Iceland. Two unusual events occurred during 2010 which had the potential to promote the unusual bloom. First, in spring 2010, the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland erupted, depositing large quantities of tephra into the subpolar North Atlantic. Second, during the winter of 2009/2010 the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) became extremely negative, developing into the second strongest negative NAO on record. Hydrographic conditions were highly anomalous in the region, with an influx of freshwater spreading through the basin, and unusual nutrient and mixed layer depth conditions. Here we use a combination of satellite, modeled and in situ data to investigate whether the input of iron from the volcanic eruption or change in hydrographic conditions due to the extreme negative NAO were responsible for the anomalous phytoplankton bloom. We conclude that changes in physical forcing driven by the NAO, and not the volcanic eruption, stimulated the unusual bloom.

Arctic fresh water plays a large role in both the global ocean circulation and the hydrological cycle. To identify sources and pathways of the Arctic outflow into the North Atlantic, results of a high resolution global model and observations have been examined. It is shown that continental runoff and snowmelt are the dominant sources of Arctic fresh water. The simulations demonstrated that the oceanic transports account for the majority of the fresh water export from the Arctic into the North Atlantic. The oceanic outflow from the Arctic is split between the western route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the eastern route through the Nordic Seas. Two thirds of total oceanic fresh water comes via the western route. Arctic halocline waters are present on both the western and eastern routes with the western route providing most of the Arctic upper halocline water. Sea ice export contributes more than half the total freshwater flux east of Greenland and less than one fifth of the freshwater flux west of it. Pacific water constitutes about third of the outflow of the Arctic upper halocline water into the North Atlantic.

Hughes, S. L., Holliday, N. P., Colbourne, E., Ozhigin, V., Valdimarsson, H., Østerhus, S., and Wiltshire, K. 2009. Comparison of in situ time-series of temperature with gridded sea surface temperature datasets in the North Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1467–1479. Analysis of the effects of climate variability and climate change on the marine ecosystem is difficult in regions where long-term observations of ocean temperature are sparse or unavailable. Gridded sea surface temperature (SST) products, based on a combination of satellite and in situ observations, can be used to examine variability and long-term trends because they provide better spatial coverage than the limited sets of long in situ time-series. SST data from three gridded products (Reynolds/NCEP OISST.v2., Reynolds ERSST.v3, and the Hadley Centre HadISST1) are compared with long time-series of in situ measurements from ICES standard sections in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. The variability and trends derived from the two data sources are examined, and the usefulness of the products as a proxy for subsurface conditions is discussed.

The subpolar North Atlantic represents a key region for global climate, but most numerical models still have well-described limitations in correctly simulating the local circulation patterns. Here, we present the analysis of a 30-year run with a global eddy-resolving (1/12°) version of the NEMO ocean model. Compared to the 1° and 1/4° equivalent versions, this simulation more realistically represents the shape of the Subpolar Gyre, the position of the North Atlantic Current, and the Gulf Stream separation. Other key improvements are found in the representation of boundary currents, multi-year variability of temperature and depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the transport of overflows at the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. However, the salinity, stratification and mean depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the density and depth of overflow water south of the sill, still present challenges to the model. This simulation also provides further insight into the spatio-temporal development of the warming event observed in the Subpolar Gyre in the mid 1990s, which appears to coincide with a phase of increased eddy activity in the southernmost part of the gyre. This may have provided a gateway through which heat would have propagated into the gyre's interior.

The upper water column in the Irminger Sea is characterized by cold fresh arctic and subarctic waters and warm saline North Atlantic waters. In this study the local physical and meteorological preconditioning of the phytoplankton development over an annual cycle in the upper water column in four physical zones of the Irminger Sea is investigated. Data from four cruises of the UK's Marine Productivity programme are combined with results from a coupled biological–physical nitrogen–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus model run using realistic forcing. The observations and model predictions are compared and analyzed to identify the key parameters and processes which determine the observed heterogeneity in biological production in the Irminger Sea. The simulations show differences in the onset of the bloom, in the time of the occurrence of the maximum phytoplankton biomass and in the length of the bloom between the zones. The longest phytoplankton bloom of 90 days duration was predicted for the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone. In contrast, for the Central Irminger Sea zone a phytoplankton bloom with a start at the beginning of May and the shortest duration of only 70 days was simulated. The latest onset of the phytoplankton bloom in mid May and the latest occurrence of the maximum biomass (end of July) were predicted for the Northern Irminger Current zone. Here the bloom lasted for 80 days. In contrast the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Irminger Current zone started at the same time as in Central Irminger Sea, but peaked end of June and lasted for 80 days. For all four zones relatively low daily (0.3–0.5 g C m− 2d− 1) and annual primary production was simulated, ranging between 35.6 g C m− 2y− 1 in the East Greenland Current of Atlantic origin zone and 45.6 g C m− 2y− 1 in the Northern Irminger Current zone. The model successfully simulated the observed regional and spatial differences in terms of the maximum depth of winter mixing, the onset of stratification and the development of the seasonal thermocline, and the differences in biological characteristics between the zones. The initial properties of the water column and the seasonal cycle of physical and meteorological forcing in each of the zones are responsible for the observed differences during the Marine Productivity cruises. The timing of the transition from mixing to stratification regime, and the different prevailing light levels in each zone are identified as the crucial processes/parameters for the understanding of the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Irminger Sea.

Changes in the ecosystem of the North Sea may occur as pronounced inter-annual and step-wise shifts as well as gradual trends. Marked inter-annual shifts have occurred at least twice in the last two decades, the late 1980s and the late 1990s, that appear to reflect an increased inflow of oceanic water and species. Numerical modelling has demonstrated a link between altered rates of inflow of oceanic water into the northern North Sea and a regime shift after 1988. In 1989 and 1997 oceanic species not normally found in the North Sea were observed there, suggesting pulses of oceanic water had entered the basin and triggered the subsequent ecosystem change. The oceanic water has origins mainly west of Britain in the Rockall Trough, where the long-term mean volume transport is around 3.7 Sv northwards (1 Sv=10 6 m3s-1), but in early 1989 and early 1998 was observed to be more than twice the mean value, reaching over 7 Sv. These periods of high transport coinciding with the inferred pulses of oceanic water into the North Sea suggest a connection through the continental shelf edge current.

We examine the trends and variability in temperature of the northwest European shelf seas over the period 1960–2004 using four approaches: a regional model simulation (using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System; POLCOMS), in situ multi-annual timeseries observations, satellite remote sensed (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST), and an analysis of data held in an international database at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). We focus on variability for the full period and trends from 1985 to 2004, being limited by the length of model simulation and the availability of satellite data. We find that all data sources give a consistent picture, with both trends and variability being intensified on-shelf and north of ∼48°N. The model and AVHRR SST show statistically significant warming trends in large areas of this region that are clearly distinguishable from both model/observation error and natural variability on these timescales. This ‘signal to noise ratio’ is substantially reduced when near bottom temperatures are considered in the model. The long timeseries at Port Erin (Isle of Man) shows that the variation in trend is well represented by the model and that the warming trend in the period 1985–2004 is substantially larger and of longer duration than previous peaks in 20-year trends since 1914. We find that the SST trends are greater in the model and satellite observations than the air temperature trends in the ERA40 re-analysis used for forcing; the net sea to air heat flux is ∼20% less in 1985–2004 than 1960–1984 (including shortwave, longwave, sensible and latent components). This is partly compensated by a ∼9% reduction in advective warming. The model shows the trends in seasonally stratified regions are greater at the surface than at depth, indicating an increase in this stratification. While this pattern is also seen in the annual trends from the ICES data analysis, the lack of seasonal resolution hampers a quantitative corroboration. The model is seen to have good skill in reproducing both the trends and variability, but tends to underestimate the trends. The modelled variability is overestimated in some coastal and open ocean regions and underestimated elsewhere, while the phase of this variability is generally well represented. Generally the model performance is better on-shelf than in the open ocean.

� 10 � 4 m 2 s � 1 commonly occur in the DWBC. These diffusivities, estimated with an internal wave strain-based parameterisation, are independently confirmed by budgets of density and dissolved O2. ‘‘Moderate’’ mixing rates (� 10 � 4 m 2 s � 1 ) over the DWBC path between Denmark Strait and Cape Farewell (� 1000 km) drive a similar net increase in volume transport by diapycnal entrainment to the more intense (� 10 � 3 m 2 s � 1 ), localised mixing rates found near the Denmark Strait overflow sill. Therefore turbulent mixing associated with the DWBC south of Denmark Strait is instrumental in establishing the magnitude of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Elevated mixing rates are also seen in the East and West Greenland Currents; this may be significant in preconditioning seasonal restratification of the intermediate layers of the Irminger and Labrador basins. Citation: Lauderdale, J. M., S. Bacon, A. C. Naveira Garabato, and N. P. Holliday (2008), Intensified turbulent mixing in the boundary current system of southern Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04611

Development, spreading and decay of the thermohaline properties of two Labrador Sea Water (LSW) classes are described. During the development phase, a specific LSW class repeatedly mixed by winter convection in the Labrador Sea becomes colder, denser, thicker and deeper. Once convection weakens, the LSW class becomes isolated from the upper layer and starts to decay, rapidly losing its volume while retaining the same density due to isopycnal mixing with the neighbouring warm saline intermediate waters. A similar pattern in temperature, salinity and density is seen in the other basins with different time lags from about two years in the Irminger Sea to ten years in the northern Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough regions. The influence of LSW on the thermohaline properties of other North Atlantic water masses is also discussed.