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Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are atmospheric aerosol particles that can strongly influence the radiative properties and precipitation onset in mixed-phase clouds by triggering ice formation in supercooled cloud water droplets. The ability to distinguish between INPs of mineral and biological origin in samples collected from the environment is needed to better understand their distribution and sources. A common method for assessing the relative contributions of mineral and biogenic INPs in samples collected from the environment (e.g. aerosol, rainwater, soil) is to determine the ice-nucleating ability (INA) before and after heating, where heat is expected to denature proteins associated with some biological ice nucleants. The key assumption is that the ice nucleation sites of biological origin are denatured by heat, while those associated with mineral surfaces remain unaffected; we test this assumption here. We exposed atmospherically relevant mineral samples to wet heat (INP suspensions warmed to above 90 ∘C) or dry heat (dry samples heated up to 250 ∘C) and assessed the effects on their immersion mode INA using a droplet freezing assay. K-feldspar, thought to be the dominant mineral-based atmospheric INP type where present, was not significantly affected by wet heating, while quartz, plagioclase feldspars and Arizona Test Dust (ATD) lost INA when heated in this mode. We argue that these reductions in INA in the aqueous phase result from direct alteration of the mineral particle surfaces by heat treatment rather than from biological or organic contamination. We hypothesise that degradation of active sites by dissolution of mineral surfaces is the mechanism in all cases due to the correlation between mineral INA deactivation magnitudes and their dissolution rates. Dry heating produced minor but repeatable deactivations in K-feldspar particles but was generally less likely to deactivate minerals compared to wet heating. We also heat-tested biogenic INP proxy materials and found that cellulose and pollen washings were relatively resistant to wet heat. In contrast, bacterially and fungally derived ice-nucleating samples were highly sensitive to wet heat as expected, although their activity remained non-negligible after wet heating. Dry heating at 250 ∘C leads to deactivation of all biogenic INPs. However, the use of dry heat at 250 ∘C for the detection of biological INPs is limited since K-feldspar's activity is also reduced under these conditions. Future work should focus on finding a set of dry heat conditions where all biological material is deactivated, but key mineral types are not. We conclude that, while wet INP heat tests at (>90 ∘C) have the potential to produce false positives, i.e. deactivation of a mineral INA that could be misconstrued as the presence of biogenic INPs, they are still a valid method for qualitatively detecting very heat-sensitive biogenic INPs in ambient samples if the mineral-based INA is controlled by K-feldspar.

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have the potential to remove much of the liquid water in climatically important mid- to high-latitude shallow supercooled clouds, markedly reducing their albedo. The INP sources at these latitudes are very poorly defined, but it is known that there are substantial dust sources across the high latitudes, such as Iceland. Here, we show that Icelandic dust emissions are sporadically an important source of INPs at mid to high latitudes by combining ice-nucleating active site density measurements of aircraft-collected Icelandic dust samples with a global aerosol model. Because Iceland is only one of many high-latitude dust sources, we anticipate that the combined effect of all these sources may strongly contribute to the INP population in the mid- and high-latitude northern hemisphere. This is important because these emissions are directly relevant for the cloud-phase climate feedback and because high-latitude dust emissions are expected to increase in a warmer climate. ISSN:2375-2548

The chemical composition of cloud water can be used to infer the sources of particles upon which cloud droplets and ice crystals have formed. In order to obtain cloud water for analysis of chemical composition for elevated clouds in the pristine high Arctic, balloon-borne active cloud water sampling systems are the optimal approach. However, such systems have not been feasible to deploy previously due to their weight and the challenging environmental conditions. We have taken advantage of recent developments in battery technology to develop a miniaturised cloud water sampler for balloon-borne collection of cloud water. Our sampler is a bulk sampler with a cloud drop cutoff diameter of approximately 8 µm and an estimated collection efficiency of 70%. The sampler was heated to prevent excessive ice accumulation and was able to operate for several hours under the extreme conditions encountered in the high Arctic. We have tested and deployed the new sampler on a tethered balloon during the Microbiology-Ocean-Cloud-Coupling in the High Arctic (MOCCHA) campaign in August and September 2018 close to the North pole. The sampler was able to successfully retrieve cloud water samples that were analysed to determine their chemical composition as well as their ice-nucleating activity. Given the pristine conditions found in the high Arctic we have placed significant emphasis on the development of a suitable cleaning procedure to minimise background contamination by the sampler itself.

The homogeneous freezing of water is important in the formation of ice in clouds, but there remains a great deal of variability in the representation of the homogeneous freezing of water in the literature. The development of new instrumentation, such as droplet microfluidic platforms, may help to constrain our understanding of the kinetics of homogeneous freezing via the analysis of monodisperse, size-selected water droplets in temporally and spatially controlled environments. Here, we evaluate droplet freezing data obtained using the Lab-on-a-Chip Nucleation by Immersed Particle Instrument (LOC-NIPI), in which droplets are generated and frozen in continuous flow. This high-throughput method was used to analyse over 16,000 water droplets (86 μm diameter) across three experimental runs, generating data with high precision and reproducibility that has largely been unrepresented in the microfluidic literature. Using this data, a new LOC-NIPI parameterisation of the volume nucleation rate coefficient (JV(T)) was determined in the temperature region of −35.1 to −36.9 °C, covering a greater JV(T) compared to most other microfluidic techniques thanks to the number of droplets analysed. Comparison to recent theory suggests inconsistencies in the theoretical representation, further implying that microfluidics could be used to inform on changes to parameterisations. By applying classical nucleation theory (CNT) to our JV(T) data, we have gone a step further than other microfluidic homogeneous freezing examples by calculating the stacking-disordered ice–supercooled water interfacial energy, estimated to be 22.5 ± 0.7 mJ m−2, again finding inconsistencies when compared to theoretical predictions. Further, we briefly review and compile all available microfluidic homogeneous freezing data in the literature, finding that the LOC-NIPI and other microfluidically generated data compare well with commonly used non-microfluidic datasets, but have generally been obtained with greater ease and with higher numbers of monodisperse droplets.

The freezing of supercooled water to ice and the materials which catalyse this process are of fundamental interest to a wide range of fields. At present, our ability to control, predict or monitor ice formation processes is poor. The isolation and characterisation of frozen droplets from supercooled liquid droplets would provide a means of improving our understanding and control of these processes. Here, we have developed a microfluidic platform for the continuous flow separation of frozen from unfrozen picolitre droplets based on differences in their density, thus allowing the sorting of ice crystals and supercooled water droplets into different outlet channels with 94 ± 2% efficiency. This will, in future, facilitate downstream or off-chip processing of the frozen and unfrozen populations, which could include the analysis and characterisation of ice-active materials or the selection of droplets with a particular ice-nucleating activity.

In recent years, sea spray as well as the biological material it contains has received increased attention as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Such INPs may play a role in remote marine regions, where other sources of INPs are scarce or absent. In the Arctic, these INPs can influence water–ice partitioning in low-level clouds and thereby the cloud lifetime, with consequences for the surface energy budget, sea ice formation and melt, and climate. Marine aerosol is of a diverse nature, so identifying sources of INPs is challenging. One fraction of marine bioaerosol (phytoplankton and their exudates) has been a particular focus of marine INP research. In our study we attempt to address three main questions. Firstly, we compare the ice-nucleating ability of two common phytoplankton species with Arctic seawater microlayer samples using the same instrumentation to see if these phytoplankton species produce ice-nucleating material with sufficient activity to account for the ice nucleation observed in Arctic microlayer samples. We present the first measurements of the ice-nucleating ability of two predominant phytoplankton species: Melosira arctica, a common Arctic diatom species, and Skeletonema marinoi, a ubiquitous diatom species across oceans worldwide. To determine the potential effect of nutrient conditions and characteristics of the algal culture, such as the amount of organic carbon associated with algal cells, on the ice nucleation activity, Skeletonema marinoi was grown under different nutrient regimes. From comparison of the ice nucleation data of the algal cultures to those obtained from a range of sea surface microlayer (SML) samples obtained during three different field expeditions to the Arctic (ACCACIA, NETCARE, and ASCOS), we found that they were not as ice active as the investigated microlayer samples, although these diatoms do produce ice-nucleating material. Secondly, to improve our understanding of local Arctic marine sources as atmospheric INPs we applied two aerosolization techniques to analyse the ice-nucleating ability of aerosolized microlayer and algal samples. The aerosols were generated either by direct nebulization of the undiluted bulk solutions or by the addition of the samples to a sea spray simulation chamber filled with artificial seawater. The latter method generates aerosol particles using a plunging jet to mimic the process of oceanic wave breaking. We observed that the aerosols produced using this approach can be ice active, indicating that the ice-nucleating material in seawater can indeed transfer to the aerosol phase. Thirdly, we attempted to measure ice nucleation activity across the entire temperature range relevant for mixed-phase clouds using a suite of ice nucleation measurement techniques – an expansion cloud chamber, a continuous-flow diffusion chamber, and a cold stage. In order to compare the measurements made using the different instruments, we have normalized the data in relation to the mass of salt present in the nascent sea spray aerosol. At temperatures above 248 K some of the SML samples were very effective at nucleating ice, but there was substantial variability between the different samples. In contrast, there was much less variability between samples below 248 K. We discuss our results in the context of aerosol–cloud interactions in the Arctic with a focus on furthering our understanding of which INP types may be important in the Arctic atmosphere.

We present the laboratory results of immersion freezing efficiencies of cellulose particles at supercooled temperature (T) conditions. Three types of chemically homogeneous cellulose samples are used as surrogates that represent supermicron and submicron ice-nucleating plant structural polymers. These samples include microcrystalline cellulose (MCC), fibrous cellulose (FC) and nanocrystalline cellulose (NCC). Our immersion freezing dataset includes data from various ice nucleation measurement techniques available at 17 different institutions, including nine dry dispersion and 11 aqueous suspension techniques. With a total of 20 methods, we performed systematic accuracy and precision analysis of measurements from all 20 measurement techniques by evaluating T-binned (1 ∘C) data over a wide T range (−36 ∘C 

It has been hypothesized that black carbon (BC) influences mixed‐phase clouds by acting as an ice‐nucleating particle (INP). However, the literature data for ice nucleation by BC immersed in supercooled water are extremely varied, with some studies reporting that BC is very effective at nucleating ice, whereas others report no ice‐nucleating ability. Here we present new experimental results for immersion mode ice nucleation by BC from two contrasting fuels (n‐decane and eugenol). We observe no significant heterogeneous nucleation by either sample. Using a global aerosol model, we quantify the maximum relative importance of BC for ice nucleation when compared with K‐feldspar and marine organic aerosol acting as INP. Based on the upper limit from our laboratory data, we show that BC contributes at least several orders of magnitude less INP than feldspar and marine organic aerosol. Representations of its atmospheric ice‐nucleating ability based on older laboratory data produce unrealistic results when compared against ambient observations of INP. Since BC is a complex material, it cannot be unambiguously ruled out as an important INP species in all locations at all times. Therefore, we use our model to estimate a range of values for the density of active sites that BC particles must have to be relevant for ice nucleation in the atmosphere. The estimated values will guide future work on BC, defining the required sensitivity of future experimental studies.

Desert dust is one of the most important atmospheric ice-nucleating aerosol species around the globe. However, there have been very few measurements of ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in dusty air close to desert sources. In this study we report the concentration of INPs in dust laden air over the tropical Atlantic within a few days' transport of one of the world's most important atmospheric sources of desert dust, the Sahara. These measurements were performed as part of the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Dust campaign based in Cape Verde, during August 2015. INP concentrations active in the immersion mode, determined using a droplet-on-filter technique, ranged from around 10² m⁻³ at -12°C to around 10⁵ m⁻³ at -23°C. There is about 2 orders of magnitude variability in INP concentration for a particular temperature, which is determined largely by the variability in atmospheric dust loading. These measurements were made at altitudes from 30 to 3,500 m in air containing a range of dust loadings. The ice active site density (n s ) for desert dust dominated aerosol derived from our measurements agrees with several laboratory-based parameterizations for ice nucleation by desert dust within 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. The small variability in n s values determined from our measurements (within about 1 order of magnitude) is striking given that the back trajectory analysis suggests that the sources of dust were geographically diverse. This is consistent with previous work, which indicates that desert dust's ice-nucleating activity is only weakly dependent on source.

Background & objectives Vaccine safety signals require investigation, which may be done rapidly at the population level using ecological studies, before embarking on hypothesis-testing studies. Incidence rates were used to assess a signal of narcolepsy following AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccination among children and adolescents in Sweden and Finland in 2010. We explored the utility of ecological data to assess incidence of narcolepsy following exposure to pandemic H1N1 virus or vaccination in 10 sites that used different vaccines, adjuvants, and had varying vaccine coverage. Methods We calculated incidence rates of diagnosed narcolepsy for periods defined by influenza virus circulation and vaccination campaign dates, and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the periods during which wild-type virus circulated and after the start of vaccination campaigns vs. the period prior to pH1N1 virus circulation. We used electronic health care data from Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Canada (3 provinces), Taiwan, Netherlands, and Spain (2 regions) from 2003 to 2013. We investigated interactions between age group and adjuvant in European sites and conducted a simulation study to investigate how vaccine coverage, age, and the interval from onset to diagnosis may impact the ability to detect safety signals. Results Incidence rates of narcolepsy varied by age, continent, and period. Only in Taiwan and Sweden were significant time-period-by-age-group interactions observed. Associations were found for children in Taiwan (following pH1N1 virus circulation) and Sweden (following vaccination). Simulations showed that the individual-level relative risk of narcolepsy was underestimated using ecological methods comparing post- vs. pre-vaccination periods; this effect was attenuated with higher vaccine coverage and a shorter interval from disease onset to diagnosis. Conclusions Ecological methods can be useful for vaccine safety assessment but the results are influenced by diagnostic delay and vaccine coverage. Because ecological methods assess risk at the population level, these methods should be treated as signal-generating methods and drawing conclusions regarding individual-level risk should be avoided.

Clouds composed of CO2 ice form throughout the Martian atmosphere. In the mesosphere, CO2 ice clouds are thought to form via heterogeneous ice nucleation on nanoparticles of meteoric origin at temperatures often below 100 K. Lower altitude CO2 ice clouds in the wintertime polar regions form up to around 145 K and lead to the build-up of the polar ice caps. However, the crystal structure and related fundamental properties of CO2 ice under Martian conditions are poorly characterised. Here we present X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements of CO2 ice, grown via deposition from the vapour phase under temperature and pressure conditions analogous to the Martian mesosphere. A crystalline cubic structure was determined, consistent with the low-pressure polymorph (CO2-I, space group Pa-3 (No. 205)). CO2 deposited at temperatures of 80 - 130 K and pressures of 0.01 – 1 mbar was consistent with dry ice and previous literature measurements, thus removing the possibility of a more complicated phase diagram for CO2 in this region. At 80 K, a lattice parameter of 5.578 ± 0.002 Å, cell volume of 173.554 ± 0.19 Å3 and density of 1.684 ± 0.002 g cm−3 was determined. Using these measurements, we determined the thermal expansion of CO2 across 80 – 130 K that allowed for a fit of CO2 ice density measurements across a larger temperature range (80 – 195 K) when combined with literature data (CO2 density = 1.72391 - 2.53×10−4 T - 2.87×10−6 T2). Temperature-dependent CO2 density values are used to estimate sedimentation velocities and heterogeneous ice nucleation rates, showing an increase in nucleation rate of up to a factor of 1000 when compared to commonly used literature values. This temperature-dependent equation of state is therefore suggested for use in future studies of Martian mesospheric CO2 clouds. Finally, we discuss the possible shapes of crystals of CO2 ice in the Martian atmosphere and show that a range of shapes including cubes and octahedra as well as a combination of the two in the form of cubo-octahedra are likely.

Dissolved organic polymers released by phytoplankton and bacteria abiologically self-assemble in surface ocean waters into nano-to micro-sized gels containing polysaccharides, proteins, lipids and other components. These gels concentrate in the sea surface microlayer (SML), where they can potentially contribute to sea spray aerosol (SSA). Sea spray is a major source of atmospheric aerosol mass over much of the earth’s surface, and knowledge of its properties (including the amount and nature of the organic content), size distributions and fluxes are fundamental for determining its role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Using a cascade impactor, we collected size-fractionated aerosol particles from ambient air and from freshly generated Sea Sweep SSA in the western North Atlantic Ocean together with biological and chemical characterization of subsurface and SML waters. Spectrophotometric methods were applied to quantify the polysaccharide-containing transparent exopolymer (TEP) and protein-containing Coomassie stainable material (CSM) in these particles and waters. This study demonstrates that both TEP and CSM in surface ocean waters are aerosolized with sea spray with the greatest total TEP associated with particles 5 000 nm. The higher concentrations of TEP and CSM in particles >5 000 nm most likely reflects collection of microorganism cells and/or fragments. The greater concentration of CSM in larger size particles may also reflect greater stability of proteinaceous gels compared to polysaccharide-rich gels in surface waters and the SML. Both TEP and CSM were measured in the ambient marine air sample with concentrations of 2.1 ± 0.16 μg Xanthan Gum equivalents (XG eq.) m−3 and 14 ± 1.0 μg bovine serum albumin equivalents (BSA eq.) m−3. TEP in Sea Sweep SSA averaged 4.7 ± 3.1 μg XG eq. m−3 and CSM 8.6 ± 7.3 μg BSA eq. m−3. This work shows the transport of marine biogenic material across the air-sea interface through primary particle emission and the first demonstration of particle size discriminated TEP and CSM characterization of SSA and ambient aerosol under field conditions.

Fine particles of ash emitted during volcanic eruptions may sporadically influence cloud properties on a regional or global scale as well as influencing the dynamics of volcanic clouds and the subsequent dispersion of volcanic aerosol and gases. It has been shown that volcanic ash can trigger ice nucleation, but ash from relatively few volcanoes has been studied for its ice nucleating ability. In this study we quantify the efficiency with which ash from the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat nucleates ice when immersed in supercooled water droplets. Using an ash sample from the 11th February 2010 eruption, we report ice nucleating efficiencies from 246 to 265 K. This wide range of temperatures was achieved using two separate droplet freezing instruments, one employing nanolitre droplets, the other using microlitre droplets. Soufriere Hills volcanic ash was significantly more efficient than all other ash samples that have been previously examined. At present the reasons for these differences are not understood, but may be related to mineralogy, amorphous content and surface chemistry. ISSN:1932-6203

The homogeneous freezing of water is of fundamental importance to a number of fields, including that of cloud formation. However, there is considerable scatter in homogeneous nucleation rate coefficients reported in the literature. Using a cold stage droplet system designed to minimize uncertainties in temperature measurements, we examined the freezing of over fifteen hundred pure water droplets with diameters between 4 and 24 μm. Under the assumption that nucleation occurs within the bulk of the droplet, nucleation rate coefficients fall within the spread of literature data and are in good agreement with a subset of more recent measurements. To quantify the relative importance of surface and volume nucleation in our experiments, where droplets are supported by a hydrophobic surface and surrounded by oil, comparison of droplets with different surface area to volume ratios was performed. From our experiments it is shown that in droplets larger than 6 µm diameter (between 234.6 and 236.5 K), nucleation in the interior is more important than nucleation at the surface. At smaller sizes we cannot rule out a significant contribution of surface nucleation, and in order to further constrain surface nucleation experiments with smaller droplets are necessary. Nevertheless, in our experiments, it is dominantly volume nucleation controlling the observed nucleation rate.

Ice-nucleating particles in Earth's atmosphere have a profound impact on cloud properties. Among the plethora of particle types in the atmosphere, certain feldspars associated with desert dust have been identified as very important ice-nucleating particles ( 1 ). As Kiselev et al. ( 2 ) show on page 367 of this issue, specific crystallographic features, which only appear in small patches in cracks or other imperfections, may be responsible for feldspar's capacity to nucleate ice (see the image). These results not only help us to understand why certain feldspars are so good at nucleating ice, but may help pave the way to a more general understanding of how ice crystals nucleate.

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have the potential to remove much of the liquid water in climatically important mid- to high-latitude shallow supercooled clouds, markedly reducing their albedo. The INP sources at these latitudes are very poorly defined, but it is known that there are substantial dust sources across the high latitudes, such as Iceland. Here, we show that Icelandic dust emissions are sporadically an important source of INPs at mid to high latitudes by combining ice-nucleating active site density measurements of aircraft-collected Icelandic dust samples with a global aerosol model. Because Iceland is only one of many high-latitude dust sources, we anticipate that the combined effect of all these sources may strongly contribute to the INP population in the mid- and high-latitude northern hemisphere. This is important because these emissions are directly relevant for the cloud-phase climate feedback and because high-latitude dust emissions are expected to increase in a warmer climate.

Vacunación; Narcolepsia; Simulación y modelado: en Vacunació; Narcolèpsia; Simulació i modelització Vaccination; Narcolepsy; Simulation and modeling Background & objectives Vaccine safety signals require investigation, which may be done rapidly at the population level using ecological studies, before embarking on hypothesis-testing studies. Incidence rates were used to assess a signal of narcolepsy following AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccination among children and adolescents in Sweden and Finland in 2010. We explored the utility of ecological data to assess incidence of narcolepsy following exposure to pandemic H1N1 virus or vaccination in 10 sites that used different vaccines, adjuvants, and had varying vaccine coverage. Methods We calculated incidence rates of diagnosed narcolepsy for periods defined by influenza virus circulation and vaccination campaign dates, and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the periods during which wild-type virus circulated and after the start of vaccination campaigns vs. the period prior to pH1N1 virus circulation. We used electronic health care data from Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Canada (3 provinces), Taiwan, Netherlands, and Spain (2 regions) from 2003 to 2013. We investigated interactions between age group and adjuvant in European sites and conducted a simulation study to investigate how vaccine coverage, age, and the interval from onset to diagnosis may impact the ability to detect safety signals. Results Incidence rates of narcolepsy varied by age, continent, and period. Only in Taiwan and Sweden were significant time-period-by-age-group interactions observed. Associations were found for children in Taiwan (following pH1N1 virus circulation) and Sweden (following vaccination). Simulations showed that the individual-level relative risk of narcolepsy was underestimated using ecological methods comparing post- vs. pre-vaccination periods; this effect was attenuated with higher vaccine coverage and a shorter interval from disease onset to diagnosis. Conclusions Ecological methods can be useful for vaccine safety assessment but the results are influenced by diagnostic delay and vaccine coverage. Because ecological methods assess risk at the population level, these methods should be treated as signal-generating methods and drawing conclusions regarding individual-level risk should be avoided. Antecedents i objectius Els senyals de seguretat per les vacunes requereixen una investigació, que es pot fer ràpidament a nivell de població mitjançant estudis ecològics, abans d'iniciar estudis de prova d'hipòtesi. Les taxes d'incidència es van utilitzar per avaluar un senyal de narcolèpsia després de la vacunació contra la influença pandèmica monovalent H1N1 (pH1N1) adjuvant de AS03 en nens i adolescents a Suècia i Finlàndia el 2010. Explorem la utilitat de les dades ecològiques per avaluar la incidència de la narcolèpsia després de l'exposició a la pandèmia H1N1 virus o vacunació en 10 llocs que utilitzaven diferents vacunes, coadjuvants i tenien una cobertura de vacunes variable. Mètodes Es van calcular les taxes d'incidència de la narcolèpsia diagnosticada per períodes definits per la circulació del virus de la influença i les dates de la campanya de vacunació, i es va utilitzar la regressió de Poisson per estimar les taxes de taxa d'incidència (IRR) que comparaven els períodes durant els quals circulava el virus de tipus salvatge i després de començar campanyes de vacunació contra. el període anterior a la circulació del virus PH1N1. Utilitzem dades d'assistència sanitària electrònica de Suècia, Dinamarca, Regne Unit, Canadà (3 províncies), Taiwan, Països Baixos i Espanya (2 regions) de 2003 a 2013. Es van investigar les interaccions entre grups d'edat i adjuvants en llocs europeus i es va dur a terme una estudi de simulació per investigar com la cobertura de la vacuna, l'edat i l'interval des de l'inici fins al diagnòstic poden afectar la capacitat de detectar senyals de seguretat. Resultats Les taxes d'incidència de la narcolepsia variaven segons l'edat, el continent i el període. Només a Taiwan i Suècia es van observar importants interaccions entre grups de temps i edat. Es van trobar associacions per a nens a Taiwan (després de la circulació del virus pH1N1) i de Suècia (després de la vacunació). Les simulacions van demostrar que el risc relatiu de la narcolepsia a nivell individual es subestimava mitjançant mètodes ecològics que comparaven els períodes post-versus pre-vacunació; aquest efecte es va atenuar amb una major cobertura de vacunes i un interval més curt d'inici de la malaltia al diagnòstic. Conclusions Els mètodes ecològics poden ser útils per a l'avaluació de la seguretat de la vacuna, però els resultats estan influïts per la demora diagnòstica i la cobertura de la vacuna. Atès que els mètodes ecològics avaluen el risc a nivell de la població, aquests mètodes han de ser tractats com a mètodes generadors de senyals i s'han d'extreure conclusions sobre el risc individual. Antecedentes y objetivos Las señales de seguridad de la vacuna requieren una investigación, que se puede hacer rápidamente a nivel de la población utilizando estudios ecológicos, antes de emprender estudios de prueba de hipótesis. Las tasas de incidencia se utilizaron para evaluar una señal de narcolepsia después de la vacunación contra la influenza H1N1 (pH1N1) pandovalente con adyuvante AS03 en niños y adolescentes en Suecia y Finlandia en 2010. Exploramos la utilidad de los datos ecológicos para evaluar la incidencia de narcolepsia después de la exposición a H1N1 pandémica virus o vacunación en 10 sitios que utilizaron diferentes vacunas, adyuvantes y tenían una cobertura de vacunas variable. Métodos Calculamos las tasas de incidencia de narcolepsia diagnosticada para los períodos definidos por la circulación del virus de la influenza y las fechas de las campañas de vacunación, y utilizamos la regresión de Poisson para estimar las tasas de incidencia (IRR) comparando los períodos durante los cuales el virus de tipo salvaje circuló y después del inicio de las campañas de vacunación vs. El período anterior a la circulación del virus pH1N1. Utilizamos datos electrónicos de atención médica de Suecia, Dinamarca, Reino Unido, Canadá (3 provincias), Taiwán, Países Bajos y España (2 regiones) desde 2003 hasta 2013. Investigamos las interacciones entre el grupo de edad y el adyuvante en sitios europeos y realizamos una estudio de simulación para investigar cómo la cobertura de la vacuna, la edad y el intervalo desde el inicio hasta el diagnóstico pueden afectar la capacidad de detectar señales de seguridad. Resultados Las tasas de incidencia de narcolepsia variaron según la edad, el continente y el período. Solo en Taiwán y Suecia se observaron interacciones significativas período-tiempo-por-edad. Se encontraron asociaciones para niños en Taiwán (después de la circulación del virus pH1N1) y Suecia (después de la vacunación). Las simulaciones mostraron que el riesgo relativo a nivel individual de narcolepsia se subestimó utilizando métodos ecológicos que comparan los períodos post-vacunación versus pre-vacunación; este efecto se atenuó con una mayor cobertura de la vacuna y un intervalo más corto desde el inicio de la enfermedad hasta el diagnóstico. Conclusiones Los métodos ecológicos pueden ser útiles para la evaluación de la seguridad de la vacuna, pero los resultados están influenciados por el retraso en el diagnóstico y la cobertura de la vacuna. Debido a que los métodos ecológicos evalúan el riesgo a nivel de la población, estos métodos deben tratarse como métodos generadores de señales y deben evitarse conclusiones extraordinarias con respecto al riesgo a nivel individual.