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We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform Bayesian online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments. BONE provides a common structure to tackle a variety of problems, including online continual learning, prequential forecasting, and contextual bandits. The framework requires specifying three modelling choices: (i) a model for measurements (e.g., a neural network), (ii) an auxiliary process to model non-stationarity (e.g., the time since the last changepoint), and (iii) a conditional prior over model parameters (e.g., a multivariate Gaussian). The framework also requires two algorithmic choices, which we use to carry out approximate inference under this framework: (i) an algorithm to estimate beliefs (posterior distribution) about the model parameters given the auxiliary variable, and (ii) an algorithm to estimate beliefs about the auxiliary variable. We show how this modularity allows us to write many different existing methods as instances of BONE; we also use this framework to propose a new method. We then experimentally compare existing methods with our proposed new method on several datasets; we provide insights into the situations that make one method more suitable than another for a given task.

Recent years in NLP have seen the continued development of domain-specific information extraction tools for scientific documents, alongside the release of increasingly multimodal pretrained transformer models. While the opportunity for scientists outside of NLP to evaluate and apply such systems to their own domains has never been clearer, these models are difficult to compare: they accept different input formats, are often black-box and give little insight into processing failures, and rarely handle PDF documents, the most common format of scientific publication. In this work, we present Collage, a tool designed for rapid prototyping, visualization, and evaluation of different information extraction models on scientific PDFs. Collage allows the use and evaluation of any HuggingFace token classifier, several LLMs, and multiple other task-specific models out of the box, and provides extensible software interfaces to accelerate experimentation with new models. Further, we enable both developers and users of NLP-based tools to inspect, debug, and better understand modeling pipelines by providing granular views of intermediate states of processing. We demonstrate our system in the context of information extraction to assist with literature review in materials science.

We propose Diffusion Model Predictive Control (D-MPC), a novel MPC approach that learns a multi-step action proposal and a multi-step dynamics model, both using diffusion models, and combines them for use in online MPC. On the popular D4RL benchmark, we show performance that is significantly better than existing model-based offline planning methods using MPC and competitive with state-of-the-art (SOTA) model-based and model-free reinforcement learning methods. We additionally illustrate D-MPC's ability to optimize novel reward functions at run time and adapt to novel dynamics, and highlight its advantages compared to existing diffusion-based planning baselines., Comment: Preprint

Learning from previously collected data via behavioral cloning or offline reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful recipe for scaling generalist agents by avoiding the need for expensive online learning. Despite strong generalization in some respects, agents are often remarkably brittle to minor visual variations in control-irrelevant factors such as the background or camera viewpoint. In this paper, we present theDeepMind Control Visual Benchmark (DMC-VB), a dataset collected in the DeepMind Control Suite to evaluate the robustness of offline RL agents for solving continuous control tasks from visual input in the presence of visual distractors. In contrast to prior works, our dataset (a) combines locomotion and navigation tasks of varying difficulties, (b) includes static and dynamic visual variations, (c) considers data generated by policies with different skill levels, (d) systematically returns pairs of state and pixel observation, (e) is an order of magnitude larger, and (f) includes tasks with hidden goals. Accompanying our dataset, we propose three benchmarks to evaluate representation learning methods for pretraining, and carry out experiments on several recently proposed methods. First, we find that pretrained representations do not help policy learning on DMC-VB, and we highlight a large representation gap between policies learned on pixel observations and on states. Second, we demonstrate when expert data is limited, policy learning can benefit from representations pretrained on (a) suboptimal data, and (b) tasks with stochastic hidden goals. Our dataset and benchmark code to train and evaluate agents are available at: https://github.com/google-deepmind/dmc_vision_benchmark., Comment: NeurIPS 2024 Datasets and Benchmarks Track. Dataset available at: https://github.com/google-deepmind/dmc_vision_benchmark

Super-resolution ultrasound imaging through microbubble (MB) localisation and tracking, also known as ultrasound localisation microscopy, allows non-invasive sub-diffraction resolution imaging of microvasculature in animals and humans. The number of MBs localised from the acquired contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) images and the localisation precision directly influence the quality of the resulting super-resolution microvasculature images. However, non-negligible noise present in the CEUS images can make localising MBs challenging. To enhance the MB localisation performance, we propose a Multi-Frame Deconvolution (MF-Decon) framework that can exploit the spatiotemporal coherence inherent in the CEUS data, with new spatial and temporal regularisers designed based on total variation (TV) and regularisation by denoising (RED). Based on the MF-Decon framework, we introduce two novel methods: MF-Decon with spatial and temporal TVs (MF-Decon+3DTV) and MF-Decon with spatial RED and temporal TV (MF-Decon+RED+TV). Results from in silico simulations indicate that our methods outperform two widely used methods using deconvolution or normalised cross-correlation across all evaluation metrics, including precision, recall, $F_1$ score, mean and standard localisation errors. In particular, our methods improve MB localisation precision by up to 39% and recall by up to 12%. Super-resolution microvasculature maps generated with our methods on a publicly available in vivo rat brain dataset show less noise, better contrast, higher resolution and more vessel structures., Comment: 26 pages, 1 table, 7 figures

We propose an approach to simulating trajectories of multiple interacting agents (road users) based on transformers and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), and apply it to the Waymo SimAgents challenge. The transformer baseline is based on the MTR model, which predicts multiple future trajectories conditioned on the past trajectories and static road layout features. We then improve upon these generated trajectories using a PGM, which contains factors which encode prior knowledge, such as a preference for smooth trajectories, and avoidance of collisions with static obstacles and other moving agents. We perform (approximate) MAP inference in this PGM using the Gauss-Newton method. Finally we sample $K=32$ trajectories for each of the $N \sim 100$ agents for the next $T=8 \Delta$ time steps, where $\Delta=10$ is the sampling rate per second. Following the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, we only return the first element of our forecasted trajectories at each step, and then we replan, so that the simulation can constantly adapt to its changing environment. We therefore call our approach "Model Predictive Simulation" or MPS. We show that MPS improves upon the MTR baseline, especially in safety critical metrics such as collision rate. Furthermore, our approach is compatible with any underlying forecasting model, and does not require extra training, so we believe it is a valuable contribution to the community., Comment: Special Mention at the Waymo Sim Agents Challenge 2024

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition., Comment: Camera-ready version update

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate. We also show how to compute an efficient deterministic approximation to the VB objective, as well as our simplified objective, when the variational distribution is Gaussian or a sub-family, including the case of a diagonal plus low-rank precision matrix. We show empirically that our method outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs., Comment: Final NeurIPS version, updated in response to reviews. 43 pages, 13 figures

While diffusion models can learn complex distributions, sampling requires a computationally expensive iterative process. Existing distillation methods enable efficient sampling, but have notable limitations, such as performance degradation with very few sampling steps, reliance on training data access, or mode-seeking optimization that may fail to capture the full distribution. We propose EM Distillation (EMD), a maximum likelihood-based approach that distills a diffusion model to a one-step generator model with minimal loss of perceptual quality. Our approach is derived through the lens of Expectation-Maximization (EM), where the generator parameters are updated using samples from the joint distribution of the diffusion teacher prior and inferred generator latents. We develop a reparametrized sampling scheme and a noise cancellation technique that together stabilizes the distillation process. We further reveal an interesting connection of our method with existing methods that minimize mode-seeking KL. EMD outperforms existing one-step generative methods in terms of FID scores on ImageNet-64 and ImageNet-128, and compares favorably with prior work on distilling text-to-image diffusion models.

We derive a novel, provably robust, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with filtering methods such as the extended and ensemble Kalman filter. We use the former to show robustness and the latter to ensure computational efficiency in the case of nonlinear models. Our method matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods (such as those based on variational Bayes) at a much lower computational cost. We show this empirically on a range of filtering problems with outlier measurements, such as object tracking, state estimation in high-dimensional chaotic systems, and online learning of neural networks., Comment: 41st International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2024)

Soldiers in the field often need to cross negative obstacles, such as rivers or canyons, to reach goals or safety. Military gap crossing involves on-site temporary bridges construction. However, this procedure is conducted with dangerous, time and labor intensive operations, and specialized machinery. We envision a scalable robotic solution inspired by advancements in force-controlled and Cable Driven Parallel Robots (CDPRs); this solution can address the challenges inherent in this transportation problem, achieving fast, efficient, and safe deployment and field operations. We introduce the embodied vision in Co3MaNDR, a solution to the military gap crossing problem, a distributed robot consisting of several modules simultaneously pulling on a central payload, controlling the cables' tensions to achieve complex objectives, such as precise trajectory tracking or force amplification. Hardware experiments demonstrate teleoperation of a payload, trajectory following, and the sensing and amplification of operators' applied physical forces during slow operations. An operator was shown to manipulate a 27.2 kg (60 lb) payload with an average force utilization of 14.5\% of its weight. Results indicate that the system can be scaled up to heavier payloads without compromising performance or introducing superfluous complexity. This research lays a foundation to expand CDPR technology to uncoordinated and unstable mobile platforms in unknown environments., Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures. Submit to IROS 2024

BlackJAX is a library implementing sampling and variational inference algorithms commonly used in Bayesian computation. It is designed for ease of use, speed, and modularity by taking a functional approach to the algorithms' implementation. BlackJAX is written in Python, using JAX to compile and run NumpPy-like samplers and variational methods on CPUs, GPUs, and TPUs. The library integrates well with probabilistic programming languages by working directly with the (un-normalized) target log density function. BlackJAX is intended as a collection of low-level, composable implementations of basic statistical 'atoms' that can be combined to perform well-defined Bayesian inference, but also provides high-level routines for ease of use. It is designed for users who need cutting-edge methods, researchers who want to create complex sampling methods, and people who want to learn how these work., Comment: Companion paper for the library https://github.com/blackjax-devs/blackjax Update: minor changes and updated the list of authors to include technical contributors

In this work, we introduce Semantic Pyramid AutoEncoder (SPAE) for enabling frozen LLMs to perform both understanding and generation tasks involving non-linguistic modalities such as images or videos. SPAE converts between raw pixels and interpretable lexical tokens (or words) extracted from the LLM's vocabulary. The resulting tokens capture both the semantic meaning and the fine-grained details needed for visual reconstruction, effectively translating the visual content into a language comprehensible to the LLM, and empowering it to perform a wide array of multimodal tasks. Our approach is validated through in-context learning experiments with frozen PaLM 2 and GPT 3.5 on a diverse set of image understanding and generation tasks. Our method marks the first successful attempt to enable a frozen LLM to generate image content while surpassing state-of-the-art performance in image understanding tasks, under the same setting, by over 25%., Comment: NeurIPS 2023 spotlight

We propose an efficient online approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the parameters of a nonlinear function from a potentially non-stationary data stream. The method is based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF), but uses a novel low-rank plus diagonal decomposition of the posterior precision matrix, which gives a cost per step which is linear in the number of model parameters. In contrast to methods based on stochastic variational inference, our method is fully deterministic, and does not require step-size tuning. We show experimentally that this results in much faster (more sample efficient) learning, which results in more rapid adaptation to changing distributions, and faster accumulation of reward when used as part of a contextual bandit algorithm.

We present Muse, a text-to-image Transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art image generation performance while being significantly more efficient than diffusion or autoregressive models. Muse is trained on a masked modeling task in discrete token space: given the text embedding extracted from a pre-trained large language model (LLM), Muse is trained to predict randomly masked image tokens. Compared to pixel-space diffusion models, such as Imagen and DALL-E 2, Muse is significantly more efficient due to the use of discrete tokens and requiring fewer sampling iterations; compared to autoregressive models, such as Parti, Muse is more efficient due to the use of parallel decoding. The use of a pre-trained LLM enables fine-grained language understanding, translating to high-fidelity image generation and the understanding of visual concepts such as objects, their spatial relationships, pose, cardinality etc. Our 900M parameter model achieves a new SOTA on CC3M, with an FID score of 6.06. The Muse 3B parameter model achieves an FID of 7.88 on zero-shot COCO evaluation, along with a CLIP score of 0.32. Muse also directly enables a number of image editing applications without the need to fine-tune or invert the model: inpainting, outpainting, and mask-free editing. More results are available at https://muse-model.github.io

Changes in the data distribution at test time can have deleterious effects on the performance of predictive models $p(y|x)$. We consider situations where there are additional meta-data labels (such as group labels), denoted by $z$, that can account for such changes in the distribution. In particular, we assume that the prior distribution $p(y, z)$, which models the dependence between the class label $y$ and the "nuisance" factors $z$, may change across domains, either due to a change in the correlation between these terms, or a change in one of their marginals. However, we assume that the generative model for features $p(x|y, z)$ is invariant across domains. We note that this corresponds to an expanded version of the widely used "label shift" assumption, where the labels now also include the nuisance factors $z$. Based on this observation, we propose a test-time label shift correction that adapts to changes in the joint distribution $p(y, z)$ using EM applied to unlabeled samples from the target domain distribution, $p_t(x)$. Importantly, we are able to avoid fitting a generative model $p(x|y,z)$, and merely need to reweight the outputs of a discriminative model $p_s(y,z|x)$ trained on the source distribution. We evaluate our method, which we call "Test-Time Label-Shift Adaptation" (TTLSA), on several standard image and text datasets, as well as the CheXpert chest X-ray dataset, and show that it improves performance over methods that target invariance to changes in the distribution, as well as baseline empirical risk minimization methods. Code for reproducing experiments is available at https://github.com/nalzok/test-time-label-shift ., Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the interpretability of the proposed model by separating the overall uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. We illustrate the usability of derived epistemic uncertainty on active learning problems. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model with various ablations on multiple datasets., Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS Workshop on Gaussian Processes, Spatiotemporal Modeling, and Decision-making Systems, 2023

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades., Comment: Presented as spotlight at the Beyond Bases workshop at ICML 2022 (https://beyond-bayes.github.io)

A recent trend in artificial intelligence is the use of pretrained models for language and vision tasks, which have achieved extraordinary performance but also puzzling failures. Probing these models' abilities in diverse ways is therefore critical to the field. In this paper, we explore the reliability of models, where we define a reliable model as one that not only achieves strong predictive performance but also performs well consistently over many decision-making tasks involving uncertainty (e.g., selective prediction, open set recognition), robust generalization (e.g., accuracy and proper scoring rules such as log-likelihood on in- and out-of-distribution datasets), and adaptation (e.g., active learning, few-shot uncertainty). We devise 10 types of tasks over 40 datasets in order to evaluate different aspects of reliability on both vision and language domains. To improve reliability, we developed ViT-Plex and T5-Plex, pretrained large model extensions for vision and language modalities, respectively. Plex greatly improves the state-of-the-art across reliability tasks, and simplifies the traditional protocol as it improves the out-of-the-box performance and does not require designing scores or tuning the model for each task. We demonstrate scaling effects over model sizes up to 1B parameters and pretraining dataset sizes up to 4B examples. We also demonstrate Plex's capabilities on challenging tasks including zero-shot open set recognition, active learning, and uncertainty in conversational language understanding., Comment: Code available at https://goo.gle/plex-code

Robotic systems that can dynamically combine manipulation and locomotion could facilitate dangerous or physically demanding labor. For instance, firefighter humanoid robots could leverage their body by leaning against collapsed building rubble to push it aside. Here we introduce a teleoperation system that targets the realization of these tasks using human whole-body motor skills. We describe a new wheeled humanoid platform, SATYRR, and a novel hands-free teleoperation architecture using a whole-body Human Machine Interface (HMI). This system enables telelocomotion of the humanoid robot using the operator body motion, freeing their arms for manipulation tasks. In this study we evaluate the efficacy of the proposed system on hardware, and explore the control of SATYRR using two teleoperation mappings that map the operators body pitch and twist to the robot velocity or acceleration. Through experiments and user feedback we showcase our preliminary findings of the pilot-system response. Results suggest that the HMI is capable of effectively telelocomoting SATYRR, that pilot preferences should dictate the appropriate motion mapping and gains, and finally that the pilot can better learn to control the system over time. This study represents a fundamental step towards the realization of combined manipulation and locomotion via teleoperation.

In 2018, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) administered two assessments--the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Technology and Engineering Literacy (TEL) assessment and the International Computer and Information Literacy Study (ICILS)--to two separate nationally representative samples of 8th-grade students in the United States. TEL was administered in January-March to 15,400 students, while ICILS was administered in March-May to 9,000 students. Because of some similarities in content and item formats, NCES commissioned a study to explore the similarities and differences between the two assessment frameworks as well as the characteristics of the assessment items. The results of the comparison study showed that the framework targets and design features underlying the scenario-based tasks (SBTs) used in both assessments have many similarities. Both assessments have a focus on information and communication technologies, and both are digital-based assessments that use interactive features in item design. However, there are differences between the two assessments in framework scope and item characteristics. About half of the TEL framework targets are beyond the scope of ICILS; TEL evaluates students' knowledge and skills in analyzing general systems, while ICILS limits its evaluation to computer systems. ICILS uses some response modes (e.g., flowcharts) that are not used in TEL. Forty-two percent of the ICILS items do not allow students to go back to the previous item to change their answers, compared with 85 percent of the TEL SBT items. About two-thirds of ICILS items assess procedural knowledge, while only about one-third of TEL SBT items do that.

In this paper we present a new algorithm for online (sequential) inference in Bayesian neural networks, and show its suitability for tackling contextual bandit problems. The key idea is to combine the extended Kalman filter (which locally linearizes the likelihood function at each time step) with a (learned or random) low-dimensional affine subspace for the parameters; the use of a subspace enables us to scale our algorithm to models with $\sim 1M$ parameters. While most other neural bandit methods need to store the entire past dataset in order to avoid the problem of "catastrophic forgetting", our approach uses constant memory. This is possible because we represent uncertainty about all the parameters in the model, not just the final linear layer. We show good results on the "Deep Bayesian Bandit Showdown" benchmark, as well as MNIST and a recommender system.

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is therefore very important for research and practice alike. Yet, competitive comparisons of methods are often lacking due to a range of reasons, including: compute availability for extensive tuning, incorporation of sufficiently many baselines, and concrete documentation for reproducibility. In this paper we introduce Uncertainty Baselines: high-quality implementations of standard and state-of-the-art deep learning methods on a variety of tasks. As of this writing, the collection spans 19 methods across 9 tasks, each with at least 5 metrics. Each baseline is a self-contained experiment pipeline with easily reusable and extendable components. Our goal is to provide immediate starting points for experimentation with new methods or applications. Additionally we provide model checkpoints, experiment outputs as Python notebooks, and leaderboards for comparing results. Code available at https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines.