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Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de dış ticaret rejiminin değiştirildiği 1984 sonrası dönemde, bütçe açıkları ile dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişki, Keynezyen ve Ricardocu yaklaşımlar bakımından değerlendiriliyor. Ampirik analizin sonuçları, bütçe açıkları ile dış ticaret açıkları arasında güçlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, koentegrasyon analizinde bu iki değişken arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı da doğrulanmıştır. Buna göre Türkiye’deki bütçe açıklarıyla dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişkiyi test eden ECM yaklaşımı, kısa ve uzun dönemde Keynezyen yaklaşımı desteklemektedir., This study intends to investigate the relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits in Turkey in relation to Keynesian and Ricardian approaches after 1984 when trade regime changed. The results indicate that there are strong causal relations between budget deficits and trade deficits. Besides it is confirmed that there is a long term relation between these two variables in cointegration analysis. According to ECM approaches testing the relations between budget and trade deficits the results have been supporting Keynesian proposition in the short and long run.

In this study, the Fisher effect, which claims that there is one to one long-term relationship between the inflation rate and the long-term nominal interest rate, has been tested using Turkish quarterly data over the 1987(I)- 2004(4) periods. Here, ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration newly developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) in applied econometrics is used. Results support the Fisher effect.

This study includes an econometric analysis of the export demand behaviour by using Turkey's annual data that cover 32 years periods from 1970 to 2002. In the study, the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001) was used to investigate the long run relationship between export demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices. As a result of this empirical analysis, it was demonstrated that export volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of export demand with respect to income and relative prices are 0.21 and -1.684, respectively. The sum of the elasticities of import and export demand exceeds one (-1.01) i.e., Marshall-Lerner condition holds. These results show that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to correct unfavourable trade balance.

This study includes an econometric analysis of the export demand behaviour by using Turkey's annual data that cover 32 years periods from 1970 to 2002. In the study, the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001) was used to investigate the long run relationship between export demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices. As a result of this empirical analysis, it was demonstrated that export volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of export demand with respect to income and relative prices are 0.21 and -1.684, respectively. The sum of the elasticities of import and export demand exceeds one (-1.01) i.e., Marshall-Lerner condition holds. These results show that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to correct unfavourable trade balance.

This study presents a statistical analysis of the aggregated import demand behaviour for Turkey. In this study, a small sample of annual data from 1970 to 2002 were used to investigate the long run relationship between import demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices, by the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001). By the results of this test, it was demonstrated that import volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of import demand with respect to income and relative prices were found as 0.37 and 0.67, respectively. As an absolute value, the sum of elasticities of import and export demand (-1.01) is greater than one. Consequently, we deduce that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to arrange unfavourable trade balance. But they are not sufficient.

This study presents a statistical analysis of the aggregated import demand behaviour for Turkey. In this study, a small sample of annual data from 1970 to 2002 were used to investigate the long run relationship between import demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices, by the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001). By the results of this test, it was demonstrated that import volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of import demand with respect to income and relative prices were found as 0.37 and 0.67, respectively. As an absolute value, the sum of elasticities of import and export demand (-1.01) is greater than one. Consequently, we deduce that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to arrange unfavourable trade balance. But they are not sufficient.

This study investigates the effect of public gross fixed investments on private manufacturing output in 1963-2002. In this study, to estimate the long run effect of public gross fixed investments on output, cointegration analysis by the bounds test method of Pesaran Vd.(2001) was conducted. According to findings, public gross fixed investments and real private manufacturing output in Turkey are cointegrated. Results show that public gross fixed investments have statistically significant positive impact on private manufacturing output.

Bu çalışmada, beşeri sermaye birikimi, ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel ilişki, eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modelleri yöntemleri ile Türkiye’nin 1960- 2004 dönemindeki yıllık reel GSYİH, reel ihracat ve yüksek öğrenime kayıt miktarı serileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu analizden elde edilen başlıca bulgular; Türkiye’de bir taraftan uzun dönemde ihracattaki artış ve beşeri sermaye birikimi, uzun dönemli büyümeyi desteklerken diğer taraftan da GSYİH’deki artışın beşeri sermaye birikimini beslediği şeklindedir. Bu bulgular, beşeri sermayeye dayalı içsel büyüme teorisini ve ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir., In this study, the causal relationship among human capital accumulation, export and economic growth was analyzed using data pertaining to Turkey’s real GDP, real export and higher education registration series over the period 1960-2004 by using cointegration and error correction methodology. The main findings of this analysis are that in Turkey on one hand while export growth and human capital accumulation support economic growth in the long run, on the other hand economic growth fosters human capital accumulation. These findings support the human capital based endogenous growth theory and the export led growth hypothesis.

Bu calismada, doviz kurundaki degiskenligin Turkiye’nin ithalatina uzun donemli etkisi esbutunlesme analizini kullanarak incelenmektedir. Esbutunlesme analizinde yeni gelistirilen sinir testi teknigi kullanilmaktadir. Doviz kurundaki degisme, ARCH modellemesi ile olculmektedir. Bulgular Turkiye’nin ithalatinin doviz kurundaki degiskenligin uzun donemli etkisine duyarli olmadigini gostermistir.

Bu çalışmada, uzun dönemli faiz oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasında bire birlik uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin mevcut olduğunu ifade eden Fisher etkisi, 1987(1)-2004(4) dönemine ilişkin Türkiye ekonomisi verileri kullanılarak test edilmektedir. Çalışmada, uygulamalı ekonometride Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından yeni geliştirilen eşbütünleşmeye ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Fisher etkisini desteklemektedir., In this study, the Fisher effect, which claims that there is one to one long-term relationship between the inflation rate and the long-term nominal interest rate, has been tested using Turkish quarterly data over the 1987(1)- 2004(4) periods. Here, ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration newly developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) in applied econometrics is used. Results support the Fisher effect.

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin 1970'den 2002 yılına kadar kadar olan 32 yıllık dönemini kapsayan yıllık verileri kullanarak yapılan ihracat talebinin ekonometrik analizini içermektedir. Çalışmada, ihracat talebi ile ihracat talebini belirleyen etkenler olan gelir ve nispi fiyatlar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla Pesaran, ve öte. (2001)'in sınır testi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu ampirik analizin sonucunda, ihracatla, gelir ve nispi fiyatların eşbütünleşik oldukları görülmüştür. İhracat talebinin, gelir ve nispi fiyatlara göre tahmin edilen uzun dönem esneklikleri sırayla; 0.21 ve - 1.684 olarak bulunmuştur. İthalat ve ihracat fiyat esnekliklerinin toplamı birden büyüktür. (-1.01) Marshall-Lerner koşulu sağlanmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar; parasal, mali ve döviz kuru politikalarının halen mevcut olan aleyhteki ticaret dengesinin düzeltilmesinde yardımcı araçlar olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir., This study includes an econometric analysis of the export demand behaviour by using Turkey's annual data that cover 32 years periods from 1970 to 2002. In the study, the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001) was used to investigate the long run relationship between export demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices. As a result of this empirical analysis, it was demonstrated that export volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of export demand with respect to income and relative prices are 0.21 and -1.684, respectively. The sum of the elasticities of import and export demand exceeds one (-1.01) i.e., Marshall-Lerner condition holds. These results show that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to correct unfavourable trade balance.

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin toplam ithalat talebinin istatistiksel analizini içermektedir. Çalışmada, 1970'den 2002'ye kadar olan sınırlı bir dönemi kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. İthalat talebi ile ithalat talebini belirleyen etkenler olan gelir ve nispi fiyatlar arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla Pesaran et al. (2001 )'ın önerdiği sınır testi (bounds test) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu testin sonucunda, ithalat hacmi ile gelir ve nispi fiyatların eşbütünleşik (cointegrated) oldukları görülmüştür. İthalat talebinin gelir ve nispi fiyatlara göre tahmin edilen uzun dönem esneklikleri sırayla; 0.37 ve 0.67 olarak bulunmuştur. İthalat ve ihracat fiyat esnekliklerinin toplamı (-1.01) mutlak değer olarak birden büyüktür. Bu sonuçtan parasal, mali ve döviz kuru politikalarının yardımcı araçlar olarak halen mevcut olan aleyhteki ticaret dengesinin düzeltilmesinde kullanılabileceği anlaşılmaktadır., This study presents a statistical analysis of the aggregated import demand behaviour for Turkey. In this study, a small sample of annual data from 1970 to 2002 were used to investigate the long run relationship between import demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices, by the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran el al (2001). By the results of this test, ü was demonstrated that import volume, income and relative prices were cointegraled. The estimated long term elasticities of import demand with respect to income and relative prices were found as 0.37 and 0.67, respectively. As an absolute value, the sum of elasticities of import and export demand (-1.01) is greater than one. Consequently, we deduce that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitulive policies to arrange unfavourable trade balance. But they are not sufficient.

Kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi konu alan iki-önemli yaklaşım; Wagner'in ve Keynes'in hipotezlerdir. GSMH dan kamu harcamalarına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ileri süren düşünce Wagner'in hipotezinin esasını oluşturmaktadır. Buna karşılık Keynes'in Teorisi de, kamu harcamalarının GSMH yi pozitif olarak etkilediğini belirtmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye Ekonomisi verilerine dayalı olarak kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin varlığının ve yönünün belirlenmesi için dinamik bir model kullanılmaktadır. Ekonometrik analizden elde edilen blılgular, Türkiye'de kamu harcamalarından GSMH ya ve ondan da tekrar kamu harcamalarına doğru çift yönlü işleyen bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Yani bulgular, Wagner'in ve Keynes'in hipotezlerinin her ikisini de desteklemektedir. Fakat GSMH nın kamu harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi, diğerinden daha güçlüdür., The two important approaches that explain relation between public expenditures and economic growth are Wagner's and Keynesian's hypotheses. A thought that assumes a causal relation from GNP to public expenditure constitutes basis of Wagner's hypothesis. However, Keynesian theory assume that public expenditure affect GNP positively. In this study, a dynamic model based on Turkey's data is used to determine if there is any relationship between public expenditure and economic growth, and its direction. Findings from econometric analysis reveal that there are bidirectional causal relationships from public expenditure to GNP and again from GNP to public expenditure. That is, findings support both of Wagner's and Keynesian's hypotheses. But the effect of GNP on public expenditure is stronger than the other.