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Sets of marine terraces, sediments, and paleoshorelines are commonly found in forearc regions worldwide. A common assumption holds that crustal uplift prevents these features from littoral erosion. Here, we study the vertical deformation of Karpathos, a forearc island in the eastern Mediterranean, whose long axis extends at a high angle to the strike of the Hellenic Subduction System (HSS). We target three key coastal localities along the island to discuss spatial and temporal variability of vertical motion. We mapped sets of up to 19 marine terraces per locality, with elevations ranging from 1.5 to ∼350 masl. Ages for terraces and sediments are constrained by radiocarbon (<31 masl) and Sr‐isotope (2–310 masl) dating, and range from 2.4 ka to ∼4.3 Ma. Data analysis shows that average uplift rates are up to two orders of magnitude faster over shorter (⪅100 ka) than longer (⪆100 ka) timescales, in agreement with other local and global data sets. Further, we find evidence for multiple marine reoccupations of late Pleistocene terraces, indicating that carbonate beachrock is often resistant to multiple interactions with sea‐level. Neogene marine sequences that witness longer periods (∼4 Ma) show signs of alternating vertical motion. Using this novel data set, we explore the effects of various mechanisms (i.e., upper‐plate normal faulting, splay‐thrust faulting, basal underplating) on the spatial and temporal patterns of vertical deformation. Although the contribution of each mechanism to the net vertical deformation cannot be isolated with certainty, our results show that none alone could account for the observations. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we focus on understanding how the landmass of Karpathos Island, in the Hellenic Subduction System in the Mediterranean Sea, moved vertically over time. We focus mainly on marine terraces, which are wave‐cut platforms near the sea forming staircase‐like topography. The age of these platforms has been constrained by dating fossil shells, shell fragments, and soils that mantle the terraces: for young (closer to the sea‐level) markers we used the isotope Carbon‐14, while for older terraces (further inland) Strontium‐87. We found that the island of Karpathos subsided prior to ∼4.3 Ma, but since then it experiences uplift. From our analysis, we find that the vertical motion of the island is the result of, at least, three interrelated processes: (a) sediment underplating, that scrapes sediments from the down‐going plate during subduction and attaches them to the base of the upper plate, pushing it upwards; (b) large earthquakes that occur either at the interface of two converging plates or on large faults that splay from this interface; and (c) smaller earthquakes produced by the horizontal stretching of the Aegean crust. Key Points: Karpathos provides a natural transect across the Hellenic forearc for exploring vertical deformationNo single mechanism of vertical movement alone can explain the full range of observations and dataUnderplating, splay faulting, and normal faulting interact in space and time to produce overall uplift on Karpathos since ∼4.3 Ma [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new geodetic strain rate and rotation rate model for Greece that has been derived using a highly dense GPS velocity field. The spatial distribution and the resolved rates of the various velocity gradient tensor quantities provided updated constraints on the present‐day upper crustal deformation in the region and revealed new details not reported previously. The spatial distribution of the second invariant demonstrated that the overall magnitude of strain rates is highest across two well‐defined provinces. The first follows the North Anatolian Fault and its two branches within the north Aegean, crosses central Greece and through the Gulf of Corinth it terminates in western Greece, while the second encompasses the extensional province of western Turkey and the eastern Aegean Sea islands. Our estimates revealed that shearing affects some of the fault‐bounded grabens of central Greece that lie to the SW of the North Aegean Basin implying considerable oblique extension. We identified a narrow region of counterclockwise rotation whose location and kinematics have been induced by the net effect across the intersection of the clockwise rotating domains of western and central Greece. The Aegean microplate and the Anatolian plate are separated by a wide transition zone which accommodates the curved stretching of the entire plate system. In both edges of the Hellenic forearc the dominant mode of crustal strain is E‐W extension. We found that earthquakes of M ≥ 5.6 are spatially well‐correlated with high‐strain areas, indicating that strain rate mapping could be used to inform future probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Plain Language Summary: Greece and its surroundings comprise a region of elevated seismic hazard because of the intense active deformation that is accumulated in earth's crust over time and which is expected to be released as earthquakes of various magnitudes. Given the importance of this relationship, we used a dense data set of GPS velocities to gain insight into the spatial distribution and patterns of the present‐day strain and rotation rates. We found that deformation is mostly concentrated across two zones. The first crosses the North Anatolian Fault, enters the north Aegean Sea, continues in central Greece and terminates in western Greece, while the second encompasses the eastern Aegean Sea islands and western continental Turkey. Across the first zone, the crust experiences various deformation modes due to the interaction of large lithospheric‐scale tectonic structures with smaller regions of localized faulting. Within the second zone, the crust is stretching in response to differences in direction and rate of movement between the Aegean microplate and the Anatolian plate. Comparison of strain rates with seismicity revealed that earthquakes with M ≥ 5.6 predominantly occur within high‐strain areas, giving implications that knowledge of the spatial distribution of tectonic deformation can augment seismic hazard analyses. Key Points: We present an improved geodetic strain and rotation rate model for Greece which reveals new details about active deformationThe strain rate field of Greece is a superposition of short‐ and long‐wavelength signals driven by local forces and large‐scale tectonicsEarthquakes over M 5.6 correlate well with high strain rates and consistently occur at areas where the second invariant exceeds 40 nstrain/yr [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kaikōura Earthquake uplifted Kaikōura Peninsula by ≤∼1 m. Uplift in 2016 mainly resulted from slip on an offshore thrust fault (OSTF), modelled to splay from the plate-interface, and was further influenced by slip on two newly identified faults (Armers Beach Fault, ABF; Te Taumanu Fault, TTF) mapped onshore from differential lidar (D-lidar). Forward dislocation modelling indicates that 2016 peninsula uplift can be reproduced by mean slip of ∼2.3 m on the OSTF and 0.25–0.5 m on the ABF and TTF. The variable co-seismic uplift recorded during the 2016 earthquake differs from the near-uniform (1.2 ± 0.2°) northwest tilting of MIS5c (96 ± 5 ka) and MIS5e (123 ± 5 ka) marine terraces; these ages are constrained by Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating and correlation to sea-level curves. Tilting of Late Quaternary marine terraces can be primarily reproduced by slip rates of ∼0.8–2.7 mm/yr on the OSTF and 0.3–0.6 mm/yr on the ABF. Slip on the TTF is not required to produce tilting of the marine terraces, suggesting that it may have ruptured less frequently than the OSTF and ABF in the Late Quaternary. The OSTF links 2016 ruptures north and south of Kaikōura, with the earthquake rupturing an interconnected network of faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Displacement rates for normal and reverse faults (n = 57) are generally higher when averaged for the Holocene (~10 ka) than for the late Quaternary (~300 ka) and longer time scales. Holocene acceleration of displacement rates could be attributed to geological processes that produce increases of tectonic tempo. We propose an alternative model in which the observed rate changes arise from variability in earthquake slip and/or recurrence coupled with a sampling bias toward those faults that are best represented at the Earth's surface and that accrued displacement fastest during the Holocene. This model is consistent with displacement rates measured over time intervals of as long as -300 ka for 129 faults from the Taupo Rift, New Zealand. Departures of earthquake parameters and associated displacement rates from their long-term (>300 ka) averages are attributed to fault interactions and occur on time intervals inversely related to these long-term displacement rates and to regional strain rates.

Slow slip events (SSEs) at subduction zones can precede large-magnitude earthquakes and may serve as precursor indicators, but the triggering of earthquakes by slow slip remains insufficiently understood. Here, we combine geodetic, Coulomb wedge and Coulomb failure-stress models with seismological data to explore the potential causal relationship between two SSEs and the 2018 Mw 6.9 Zakynthos Earthquake within the Hellenic Subduction System. We show that both SSEs released up to 10 mm of aseismic slip on the plate-interface and were accompanied by an increase in upper-plate seismicity rate. While the first SSE in late 2014 generated only mild Coulomb failure stress changes (=3 kPa), that were nevertheless sufficient to destabilize faults of various kinematics in the overriding plate, the second SSE in 2018 caused stress changes up to 25 kPa prior to the mainshock. Collectively, these stress changes affected a highly overpressured and mechanically weak forearc, whose state of stress fluctuated between horizontal deviatoric compression and tension during the years preceding the Zakynthos Earthquake. We conclude that this configuration facilitated episodes of aseismic and seismic deformation that ultimately triggered the Zakynthos Earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The month‐to‐year‐long deformation of the Earth's crust where active subduction zones terminate is poorly explored. Here we report on a multidisciplinary data set that captures the synergy of slow‐slip events, earthquake swarms and fault interactions during the ∼5 years leading up to the 2018 Mw 6.9 Zakynthos Earthquake at the western termination of the Hellenic Subduction System (HSS). It appears that this long‐lasting preparatory phase initiated due to a slow‐slip event that lasted ∼4 months and released strain equivalent to a ∼Mw 6.3 earthquake. We propose that the slow‐slip event, which is the first to be reported in the HSS, tectonically destabilized the upper 20–40 km of the crust, producing alternating phases of seismic and aseismic deformation, including intense microseismicity (Mw < 4) on neighboring faults, earthquake swarms in the epicentral area of the Mw 6.9 earthquake ∼1.5 years before the main event, another episode of slow slip immediately preceding the mainshock and, eventually, the large (Mw 6.9) Zakynthos Earthquake. Tectonic instability in the area is evidenced by a prolonged (∼4 years) period of overall suppressed b‐values (<1) and strong earthquake interactions on discrete strike‐slip, thrust and normal faults. We propose that composite faulting patterns accompanied by alternating (seismic/aseismic) deformation styles may characterize multifault subduction‐termination zones and may operate over a range of timescales (from individual earthquakes to millions of years). Key Points: First ever report of slow‐slip event in the Hellenic Subduction System (HSS) prior to a large‐magnitude earthquakeSynergy of upper‐plate faulting, slow slip and earthquake swarms tectonically destabilize a subduction‐termination prior to the mainshockPlate‐motion at the western HSS is accommodated by alternating phases of seismic and aseismic slip operating at various depths [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]