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Contains fulltext : 204070.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Contains fulltext : 177998.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing the greatest burden. Identifying etiologies of respiratory disease is important to inform cost effective treatment, prevention and control strategies. Testing for all of the different pathogens that are potentially associated with respiratory illnesses is challenging. We piloted the use of a multi-pathogen respiratory Taqman Array Cards (TAC) to identify pathogens in respiratory samples collected from non-fatal and fatal cases and their matched asymptomatic controls. METHODS: This is a case control study comparing viral and bacterial pathogens detected among non-fatal and fatal cases to those detected among age and time matched asymptomatic controls. We used McNemar's test to compare proportions of pathogens detected among cases (non-fatal and fatal) to their matched asymptomatic controls. We used Mann-Whitney test to compare the distribution of median Cycle threshold (Ct) values among non-fatal and fatal cases to their corresponding asymptomatic controls. RESULTS: There were 72 fatal and 72 non-fatal cases matched to 72 controls. We identified at least one pathogen in 109/144 (76%) cases and 59/72 (82%) controls. For most pathogens, the median Ct values were lower among cases (fatal and non-fatal) compared to asymptomatic controls. CONCLUSIONS: Similar rates of pathogen detection among cases and controls make interpretation of results challenging. Ct-values might be helpful in interpreting clinical relevance of detected pathogens using multi-pathogen diagnostic tools.

Contains fulltext : 175739.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. METHODS: We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. RESULTS: Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among >/=50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Radboud University, 12 mei 2017, Promotor : Velden, J. van der Co-promotores : Paget, W.J., Mott, J.A., Contains fulltext : 169266.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Contains fulltext : 172815.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: Information on the timing of influenza circulation remains scarce in Tropical regions of Africa. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the relationship between influenza activity and several meteorological factors (temperature, specific humidity, precipitation) and characterized the timing of influenza circulation and its implications to vaccination strategies in Kenya. METHODS: We analyzed virologically confirmed influenza data for outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI), hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), and cases of severe pneumonia over the period 2007-2013. Using logistic and negative binomial regression methods, we assessed the independent association between climatic variables (lagged up to 4 weeks) and influenza activity. RESULTS: There were multiple influenza epidemics occurring each year and lasting a median duration of 2-4 months. On average, there were two epidemics occurring each year in most of the regions in Kenya, with the first epidemic occurring between the months of February and March and the second one between July and November. Specific humidity was independently and negatively associated with influenza activity. Combinations of low temperature (<18 degrees C) and low specific humidity (<11 g/kg) were significantly associated with increased influenza activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our study broadens understanding of the relationships between seasonal influenza activity and meteorological factors in the Kenyan context. While rainfall is frequently thought to be associated with influenza circulation in the tropics, the present findings suggest low humidity is more important in Kenya. If annual vaccination were a component of a vaccination strategy in Kenya, the months of April to June are proposed as optimal for associated campaigns.

Contains fulltext : 171632.PDF (publisher's version ) (Open Access), INTRODUCTION: Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B) in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with >/=80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics. RESULTS: 212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics. DISCUSSION: Our findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate.

Item does not contain fulltext, INTRODUCTION: Every year the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends which influenza virus strains should be included in a northern hemisphere (NH) and a southern hemisphere (SH) influenza vaccine. To determine the best vaccine formulation for Kenya, we compared influenza viruses collected in Kenya from April 2007 to May 2013 to WHO vaccine strains. METHODS: We collected nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP/OP) specimens from patients with respiratory illness, tested them for influenza, isolated influenza viruses from a proportion of positive specimens, tested the isolates for antigenic relatedness to vaccine strains, and determined the percentage match between circulating viruses and SH or NH influenza vaccine composition and schedule. RESULTS: During the six years, 7.336 of the 60,072 (12.2%) NP/OP specimens we collected were positive for influenza: 30,167 specimens were collected during the SH seasons and 3717 (12.3%) were positive for influenza; 2903 (78.1%) influenza A, 902 (24.2%) influenza B, and 88 (2.4%) influenza A and B positive specimens. We collected 30,131 specimens during the NH seasons and 3978 (13.2%) were positive for influenza; 3181 (80.0%) influenza A, 851 (21.4%) influenza B, and 54 (1.4%) influenza A and B positive specimens. Overall, 362/460 (78.7%) isolates from the SH seasons and 316/338 (93.5%) isolates from the NH seasons were matched to the SH and the NH vaccine strains, respectively (p<0.001). Overall, 53.6% and 46.4% SH and NH vaccines, respectively, matched circulating strains in terms of vaccine strains and timing. CONCLUSION: In six years of surveillance in Kenya, influenza circulated at nearly equal levels during the SH and the NH influenza seasons. Circulating viruses were matched to vaccine strains. The vaccine match decreased when both vaccine strains and timing were taken into consideration. Either vaccine formulation could be suitable for use in Kenya but the optimal timing for influenza vaccination needs to be determined.

Item does not contain fulltext, BACKGROUND: In Africa, recent surveillance has demonstrated a high burden of influenza, but influenza vaccine is rarely used. In Kenya, a country with a tropical climate, influenza has been shown to circulate year-round, like in other tropical countries. METHODS: During 3 months in 2010 and 2011 and 2 months in 2012, the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-Kenya offered free injectable trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine to children 6 months to 10 years old in 2 resource-poor communities in Kenya-Kibera and Lwak (total population ~50,000). We conducted a case-control study to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza associated with influenza-like illness and acute lower respiratory illness. RESULTS: Of the approximately 18,000 eligible children, 41%, 48% and 51% received at least 1 vaccine in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively; 30%, 36% and 38% were fully vaccinated. VE among fully vaccinated children was 57% [95% confidence interval (CI): 29% to 74%] during a 6-month follow-up period, 39% (95% CI: 17% to 56%) during a 9-month follow-up period and 48% (95% CI: 32% to 61%) during a 12-month follow-up period. For the 12-month follow-up period, VE was statistically significant in children <5 years and in children 5 to <10 years old (50% and 46%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In Kenya, parents of nearly half of the eligible children <10 years old chose to get their children vaccinated with a free influenza vaccine. During a 12-month follow-up period, the vaccine was moderately effective in preventing medically attended influenza-associated respiratory illness.

Item does not contain fulltext, BACKGROUND: Little is known about how human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection affects influenza transmission within homes in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used respiratory illness surveillance and HIV testing data gathered in Kibera, an urban slum in Nairobi, Kenya, to examine the impact of HIV status on (1) introducing influenza to the home and (2) transmitting influenza to household contacts. RESULTS: While HIV status did not affect the likelihood of being an influenza index case, household contacts of HIV-infected influenza index cases had twice the risk of developing secondary influenza-like illness than contacts of HIV-negative index cases. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected influenza index cases may facilitate transmission of influenza within the home.

Item does not contain fulltext, BACKGROUND: Data on causes of death due to respiratory illness in Africa are limited. METHODS: From January to April 2013, 28 African countries were invited to participate in a review of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI)-associated deaths identified from influenza surveillance during 2009-2012. RESULTS: Twenty-three countries (82%) responded, 11 (48%) collect mortality data, and 8 provided data. Data were collected from 37 714 SARI cases, and 3091 (8.2%; range by country, 5.1%-25.9%) tested positive for influenza virus. There were 1073 deaths (2.8%; range by country, 0.1%-5.3%) reported, among which influenza virus was detected in 57 (5.3%). Case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher among countries with systematic death reporting than among those with sporadic reporting. The influenza-associated CFP was 1.8% (57 of 3091), compared with 2.9% (1016 of 34 623) for influenza virus-negative cases (P < .001). Among 834 deaths (77.7%) tested for other respiratory pathogens, rhinovirus (107 [12.8%]), adenovirus (64 [6.0%]), respiratory syncytial virus (60 [5.6%]), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (57 [5.3%]) were most commonly identified. Among 1073 deaths, 402 (37.5%) involved people aged 0-4 years, 462 (43.1%) involved people aged 5-49 years, and 209 (19.5%) involved people aged >/=50 years. CONCLUSIONS: Few African countries systematically collect data on outcomes of people hospitalized with respiratory illness. Stronger surveillance for deaths due to respiratory illness may identify risk groups for targeted vaccine use and other prevention strategies.

Contains fulltext : 154139.PDF (publisher's version ) (Open Access), Influenza-associated disease burden among children in tropical sub-Saharan Africa is not well established, particularly outside of the 2009 pandemic period. We estimated the burden of influenza in children aged 0-4 years through population-based surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute lower respiratory tract illness (ALRI). Household members meeting ILI or ALRI case definitions were referred to health facilities for evaluation and collection of nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for influenza testing by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Estimates were adjusted for health-seeking behavior and those with ILI and ALRI who were not tested. During 2008-2012, there were 9,652 person-years of surveillance among children aged 0-4 years. The average adjusted rate of influenza-associated hospitalization was 4.3 (95% CI 3.0-6.0) per 1,000 person-years in children aged 0-4 years. Hospitalization rates were highest in the 0-5 month and 6-23 month age groups, at 7.6 (95% CI 3.2-18.2) and 8.4 (95% CI 5.4-13.0) per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The average adjusted rate of influenza-associated medically attended (inpatient or outpatient) ALRI in children aged 0-4 years was 17.4 (95% CI 14.2-19.7) per 1,000 person-years. Few children who had severe laboratory-confirmed influenza were clinically diagnosed with influenza by the treating clinician in the inpatient (0/33, 0%) or outpatient (1/109, 0.9%) settings. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates from 2008-2012 were 5-10 times higher than contemporaneous U.S. estimates. Many children with danger signs were not hospitalized; thus, influenza-associated severe disease rates in Kenyan children are likely higher than hospital-based estimates suggest.

Contains fulltext : 152371.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: In Kenya data on the burden of influenza disease are needed to inform influenza control policies. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of published data describing the influenza disease burden in Kenya using surveillance data collected until December 2013. We included studies with laboratory confirmation of influenza, well-defined catchment populations, case definitions used to sample patients for testing and a description of the laboratory methods used for influenza testing. Studies with or without any adjustments on the incidence rates were included. RESULTS: Ten studies reporting the incidence of medically-attended and non-medically attended influenza were reviewed. For all age groups, the influenza positive proportion ranged from 5-10% among hospitalized patients, and 5-27% among all medically-attended patients (a combination of in- and outpatients). The adjusted incidence rate of hospitalizations with influenza among children <5 years ranged from 2.7-4.7 per 1,000 [5.7 per 1,000 in children <6 months old], and were 7-10 times higher compared to persons aged >/=5 years. The adjusted incidence of all medically-attended influenza among children aged <5 years ranged from 13.0-58.0 per 1,000 compared to 4.3-26.0 per 1,000 among persons aged >/=5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our review shows an expanding set of literature on disease burden associated with influenza in Kenya, with a substantial burden in children under five years of age. Hospitalizations with influenza in these children were 2-3 times higher than reported in the United States. These findings highlight the possible value of an influenza vaccination program in Kenya, with children <5 years and pregnant women being potentially important targets.

Contains fulltext : 139260.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Contains fulltext : 109779.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical influenza seasons in countries of the WHO European region. METHODS: We assessed the timing of pandemic by comparing the median peak of influenza activity in countries of the region during the last seven influenza seasons. The peaks of influenza activity were selected by two independent researchers using predefined rules. The geographic spread was assessed by correlating the peak week of influenza activity in included countries against the longitude and latitude of the central point in each country. To assess the community impact of pandemic influenza, we constructed linear regression models to compare the total and age-specific influenza-like-illness (ILI) or acute respiratory infection (ARI) rates reported by the countries in the pandemic season to those observed in the previous six influenza seasons. RESULTS: We found that the influenza activity reached its peak during the pandemic, on average, 10.5 weeks (95% CI 6.4-14.2) earlier than during the previous 6 seasons in the Region, and there was a west to east spread of pandemic A(H1N1) influenza virus in the western part of the Region. A regression analysis showed that the total ILI or ARI rates were not higher than historical rates in 19 of the 28 countries. However, in countries with age-specific data, there were significantly higher consultation rates in the 0-4 and/or 5-14 age groups in 11 of the 20 countries. CONCLUSIONS: Using routine influenza surveillance data, we found that pandemic influenza had several differential features compared to historical seasons in the region. It arrived earlier, caused significantly higher number of outpatient consultations in children in most countries and followed west to east spr