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In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Over the years, the emergence of novel H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) has been taking place through two main mechanisms: first, the conversion of a low pathogenic into a highly pathogenic virus, and second, the reassortment between different genetic segments of low and highly pathogenic viruses already in circulation. We investigated and summarized the literature on emerging HPAI H5 and H7 viruses with the aim of building a spatio-temporal database of all these recorded conversions and reassortments events. We subsequently mapped the spatio-temporal distribution of known emergence events, as well as the species and production systems that they were associated with, the aim being to establish their main characteristics. From 1959 onwards, we identified a total of 39 independent H7 and H5 LPAI to HPAI conversion events. All but two of these events were reported in commercial poultry production systems, and a majority of these events took place in high-income countries. In contrast, a total of 127 reassortments have been reported from 1983 to 2015, which predominantly took place in countries with poultry production systems transitioning from backyard to intensive production systems. Those systems are characterized by several co-circulating viruses, multiple host species, regular contact points in live bird markets, limited biosecurity within value chains, and frequent vaccination campaigns that impose selection pressures for emergence of novel reassortants. We conclude that novel HPAI emergences by these two mechanisms occur in different ecological niches, with different viral, environmental and host associated factors, which has implications in early detection and management and mitigation of the risk of emergence of novel HPAI viruses., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for these discrepancies in tran, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

BACKGROUND: Theileria parva is a tick-borne protozoan parasite, which causes East Coast Fever, a disease of cattle in sub-Saharan Africa. Like Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite undergoes a transient diploid life-cycle stage in the gut of the arthropod vector, which involves an obligate sexual cycle. As assessed using low-resolution VNTR markers, the crossover (CO) rate in T. parva is relatively high and has been reported to vary across different regions of the genome; non-crossovers (NCOs) and CO-associated gene conversions have not yet been characterised due to the lack of informative markers. To examine all recombination events at high marker resolution, we sequenced the haploid genomes of two parental strains, and two recombinant clones derived from ticks fed on cattle that had been simultaneously co-infected with two different parasite isolates. RESULTS: By comparing the genome sequences, we were able to genotype over 64 thousand SNP markers with an average spacing of 127 bp in the two progeny clones. Previously unrecognized COs in sub-telomeric regions were detected. About 50% of CO breakpoints were accompanied by gene conversion events. Such a high fraction of COs accompanied by gene conversions demonstrated the contributions of meiotic recombination to the diversity and evolutionary success of T. parva, as the process not only redistributed existing genetic variations, but also altered allelic frequencies. Compared to COs, NCOs were more frequently observed and more uniformly distributed across the genome. In both progeny clones, genomic regions with more SNP markers had a reduced frequency of COs or NCOs, suggesting that the sequence divergence between the parental strains was high enough to adversely affect recombination frequencies. Intra-species polymorphism analysis identified 81 loci as likely to be under selection in the sequenced genomes. CONCLUSIONS: Using whole genome sequencing of two recombinant clones and their parents, we generated maps of COs