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Background: The aim of the study was to assess mortality and years of life lost from diabetes mellitus in Poland between 2000 and 2022. Methods: The database was created from death cards made available for the purposes of this study by Statistics Poland. The study used data on deaths caused by type 1 diabetes mellitus, T1DM (N = 33,328), and type 2 diabetes mellitus, T2DM (N = 113,706). Standardized death rates (SDRs) and standard expected years of life lost per person (SEYLLp) and per death (SEYLLd) were calculated. A time trend analysis was performed using joinpoint models. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were estimated. Results: Between 2000 and 2022, 33,328 people died from T1DM in Poland. The SDR rate increased from 6.0 to 8.8 per 100,000 population in the analyzed period. The APC was 1.3% (p < 0.05). SEYLLp rates per 100,000 population were 79.3 in 2000 and 109.2 in 2022. SEYLLd rates were 22.9 and 17.9 years, respectively (APC = −1.0%, p < 0.05). The mean age of those who died from T1DM increased from 66.1 in 2000 to 72.5 in 2022. Between 2000 and 2022, 113,706 people died from T2DM. The SDR increased from 12.5 to 37.7 per 100,00 (APC = 5.5%, p < 0.05). SEYLLp rates were 88.8 and 296.0 per 100,000 population (APC = 6.4%, p < 0.05). SEYLLd rates decreased from 16.9 in 2000 to 13.4 in 2022 (AAPC = −1.0%, p < 0.05). The mean age of those who died from T2DM increased from 73.1 to 78.1 years. Conclusions: The study showed a growing problem of diabetes as a cause of death and years of life lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To examine mortality trends among non-Hispanic (NH) adults with pancreatic cancer. Method: CDC-WONDER database was used to extract death certificate data on pancreatic cancer-related mortality in NH adults aged ≥ 45 from 1999 to 2020. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons and annual percent changes (APCs) were calculated and stratified by year, age, sex, race, and region. Results: From 1999 to 2020, 783,772 deaths occurred among middle-aged (45–64) and older (65–85 +) NH adults. Overall AAMR increased from 31.7 in 1999 to 33.8 in 2020 (APC: 0.35; 95% CI:0.28–0.41). NH older adults had higher AAMRs (67.9) than NH middle-aged adults (12.5). Men consistently had higher AAMRs (37.7) than women (28.4). NH African Americans had the highest AAMRs (40.8) compared to NH Whites (32.1), NH American Indians (23.9), and NH Asians (22.4). Metropolitan areas had a higher AAMR (32.7) than non-metropolitan areas (32.2). The Northeast region had the highest AAMR (34.0) followed by Midwest (33.2), South (32.2), and West (30.1). Delaware, District of Columbia, Louisiana, Michigan, and Mississippi had the highest AAMRs among states. Conclusions: Pancreatic cancer-related mortality among NH adults has increased from 1999 to 2020. Highest AAMRs were reported in older men, NH African Americans, the Northeastern and metropolitan areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infant mortality continues to be a significant problem for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). Limited data exist on the recent trends of mortality in infants with CHD. Methods: The CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide‐Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify deaths occurring within the United States with CHD listed as one of the causes of death between 1999 and 2020. Subsequently, trends were calculated using the Joinpoint regression program (version 4.9.1.0; National Cancer Institute). Results: A total of 47,015 deaths occurred in infants due to CHD at the national level from the year 1999 to 2020. The overall proportional infant mortality (compared to all deaths) declined (47.3% to 37.1%, average annual percent change [AAPC]: −1.1 [95% CI −1.6 to −0.6, p < 0.001]). There was a significant decline in proportional mortality in both Black (45.3% to 34.3%, AAPC: −0.5 [−0.8 to −0.2, p = 0.002]) and White patients (55.6% to 48.6%, AAPC: −1.2 [−1.7 to −0.7, p = 0.001]), with a steeper decline among White than Black patients. A statistically significant decline in the proportional infant mortality in both non‐Hispanic (43.3% to 33.0%, AAPC: −1.3% [95% CI −1.9 to −0.7, p < 0.001]) and Hispanic (67.6% to 57.7%, AAPC: −0.7 [95% CI −0.9 to −0.4, p < 0.001]) patients was observed, with a steeper decline among non‐Hispanic infant population. The proportional infant mortality decreased in males (47.5% to 53.1%, AAPC: −1.4% [−1.9 to −0.9, p < 0.001]) and females (47.1% to 39.6%, AAPC: −0.9 [−1.9 to 0.0, p = 0.05]). A steady decline in for both females and males was noted. Conclusion: Our study showed a significant decrease in CHD‐related mortality rate in infants and age‐adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) between 1999 and 2020. However, sex‐based, racial/ethnic disparities were noted, with female, Black, and Hispanic patients showing a lesser decline than male, White, and non‐Hispanic patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the impact of national income level and sex on mortality trends from aortic aneurysm and dissection in addition to all aortic disease as a whole. Methods: Using data from the World Health Organization mortality database, we conducted an analysis of mortality trends from aortic disease between 2000 and 2019, Countries were categorized into middle-income and high-income countries (MICs and HICs) on the basis of income level. Age-standardized and sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 persons, along with male-to-female mortality ratios, were calculated. Trends over the study period were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Results: Our analysis comprised 29 MICs and 46 HICs, with an average population of 595 million and 1042 million during the observation period. During the observation period, age-standardized mortality rates from aortic disease decreased to 2.21 (2.17-2.25) and 2.28 (2.26-2.30) in MICs and HICs, respectively (average annual percentage change of −0.5% in MICs and −1.8% in HICs, P

Objective: Few studies exist on trends in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) survival and mortality according to stage and level of socioeconomic status. Design: Nationwide cohort study. Patients and Measurements: Patients diagnosed with PTC during 2000–2015 in Denmark were identified from the Danish Cancer Registry and followed until the end of 2020. We evaluated 5‐year all‐cause mortality and relative survival according to stage and 5‐year mortality rates with corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) according to stage and education. Finally, we assessed the association between several factors and mortality of PTC using Cox regression. Results: For the 2006 cases of PTC diagnosed during 2000–2015, relative survival tended to increase and mortality rates tended to decrease for all stages. For localized PTC, mortality rates tended to decrease among individuals with medium education (AAPC = −7.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −14.7 to 1.5), but showed an increasing pattern among individuals with long education (AAPC = 19.8, 95% CI: −4.2 to 50.0). For nonlocalized PTC, mortality rates showed a decreasing tendency among individuals with medium and long education (AAPC = −5.5, 95% CI: −13.2 to 2.9, and AAPC = −10.4, 95% CI: −20.8 to 1.4, respectively). Being diagnosed with PTC in a more recent calendar period and long education were associated with a lower mortality rate in the Cox regression analysis. Conclusions: A pattern of an increasing relative survival and decreasing mortality rates of PTC across all stages was seen in Denmark during 2000–2015. The decreasing pattern in mortality rates was most evident in individuals with localized stage and medium education, and in individuals with nonlocalized stage and medium or long education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) related mortality has decreased in the United States due to increasing awareness in the general population and advancing preventative efforts, diagnostic measures, and treatment. However, demographic and regional differences still persist throughout the United States. In this study, we analyzed the temporal trends of demographic and geographical differences in CLRD-related mortality. Data was extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Using this data, age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people (AAMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine mortality trends between 1999 and 2020 based on demographic and regional groups. During this study period, there were 3,064,049 CLRD-related deaths, with most demographics and regional areas showing an overall decreasing trend. However, higher mortality rates were seen in the non-Hispanic White population and rural areas. Interestingly, mortality rates witnessed a decreasing trend for males throughout the study duration compared to females, who only began to show decreases in mortality during the latter half of the 2010s. Using these results, one can target efforts and build policies to improve CLRD-related mortality and reduce disparities in the coming decades.

Background: Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant, progressive neurodegenerative disorder debilitating mainly in adults. Objective: This study aimed to assess the trends in HD-related mortality regarding various demographic factors. Methods: Death certificates from the CDC WONDER were studied from 1999 to 2019, for HD-related mortality in adults aged 25 + years. Age-adjusted Mortality Rate (AAMR) per 100,000 persons and Annual Percentage Change (APC) were calculated and stratified by year, age groups, gender, race/ethnicity, state, census region, urbanization, and place of death. Results: Between 1999 to 2019, 22,595 deaths occurred in adults due to HD. The AAMR increased from 0.43 to 0.54 during this period (APC = 0.50; 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.84). Old adults (65–85 + years) had the highest overall AAMR, followed by middle-aged adults (45–64 years) and young adults (25–44 years) (AAMR old: 1.01 vs. AAMR middle-age: 0.68 vs. AAMR young: 0.16). Men had slightly greater overall AAMRs than women (AAMR men: 0.54 vs. AAMR women: 0.48). When stratified by race, non-Hispanic (NH) Whites had significantly higher mortality rates than NH African Americans (AAMR NH White: 0.61 vs. NH African American: 0.35), while the AAMR were lowest in Hispanic/Latino (0.28). The AAMRs also showed variation by region (overall AAMR: Midwest: 0.63, Northeast: 0.47, West: 0.48, South: 0.46), and non-metropolitan areas had higher HD-related AAMR (0.66) than metropolitan areas (0.47). Conclusions: HD-related mortality in US adults has increased since 1999. Reflecting on the variations in trends observed, new strategies are required to optimize the quality of care in long-term care facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) related mortality has decreased in the United States due to increasing awareness in the general population and advancing preventative efforts, diagnostic measures, and treatment. However, demographic and regional differences still persist throughout the United States. In this study, we analyzed the temporal trends of demographic and geographical differences in CLRD-related mortality. Data was extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Using this data, age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people (AAMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine mortality trends between 1999 and 2020 based on demographic and regional groups. During this study period, there were 3,064,049 CLRD-related deaths, with most demographics and regional areas showing an overall decreasing trend. However, higher mortality rates were seen in the non-Hispanic White population and rural areas. Interestingly, mortality rates witnessed a decreasing trend for males throughout the study duration compared to females, who only began to show decreases in mortality during the latter half of the 2010s. Using these results, one can target efforts and build policies to improve CLRD-related mortality and reduce disparities in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To investigate the most common causes of death and trends in cause-specific long-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI).Methods This analysis was based on 10,718 patients, aged 25–74 years, recorded by the population-based Myocardial Infarction Registry Augsburg between 2000 and 2017. All hospitalized cases of AMI occurring in the study region during this period were included. If a patient died during follow-up (median: 6.6 years, IQR: 2.8–11.2) the death certificate was obtained and coded using the ICD-10 to determine the main cause of death. Cause-specific mortality was calculated for three 6-year periods. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression models stratified by time interval were calculated.Results The most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (CVD), more precisely ischemic-heart disease (IHD), followed by cancer. The proportions of CVD deaths and IHD deaths were stable over time. An increasing trend was observed in cancer mortality in post-AMI patients. In male patients, the hazard ratio for cancer mortality was 44.4% higher in 2012–2017 compared to 2000–2005, in female patients, it was more than twice as high in 2006–2012 compared to 2000–2005.Conclusion This study revealed consistent CVD and IHD long-term mortality and increasing trends in long-term cancer mortality in patients post-AMI. Thus, post-AMI patients should emphasize tertiary prevention of CVD by minimizing risk factors. Furthermore, patients should regularly undergo cancer screening programs. The reasons for the unfavorable development in terms of increasing cancer mortality should be investigated in further studies.

Background Rising midlife mortality in the USA has raised concerns, particularly the increase in 'deaths of despair' (due to drugs, alcohol and suicide). Life expectancy is also stalling in other countries such as the UK, but how trends in midlife mortality are evolving outside the USA is less understood. We provide a synthesis of cause-specific mortality trends in midlife (25–64 years of age) for the USA and the UK as well as other high-income and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Methods We document trends in midlife mortality in the USA, UK and a group of 13 high-income countries in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as seven CEE countries from 1990 to 2019. We use annual mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database to analyse sex- and age-specific (25–44, 45–54 and 55–64 years) age-standardized death rates across 15 major cause-of-death categories. Results US midlife mortality rates have worsened since 1990 for several causes of death including drug-related, alcohol-related, suicide, metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases, respiratory diseases and infectious/parasitic diseases. Deaths due to homicide, transport accidents and cardiovascular diseases have declined since 1990 but saw recent increases or stalling of improvements. Midlife mortality also increased in the UK for people aged 45–54 year and in Canada, Poland and Sweden among for those aged 25–44 years. Conclusions The USA is increasingly falling behind not only high-income, but also CEE countries, some of which were heavily impacted by the post-socialist mortality crisis of the 1990s. Although levels of midlife mortality in the UK are substantially lower than those in the USA overall, there are signs that UK midlife mortality is worsening relative to that in Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. Methods: Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35–64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. Results: MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980–1987 (stable rates), 1987–1990 (sharp increase), 1990–1999 (slower increase) and 1999–2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35–64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The aim of this article is to investigate the mortality rate of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over the past 17 years. Methods: Japanese patients with early RA enrolled in the Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis cohort from 2001 to 2012 were classified into Groups A (2001–06) and B (2007–12). The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and 5-year survival rate were calculated. Results: Groups A and B had 1609 and 1608 patients, of which 167 and 178 patients were lost during follow-up and 47 and 45 deaths were confirmed, respectively. The SMR (95% confidence intervals) for Groups A and B were 0.81 (0.59–1.08) and 0.78 (0.57–1.04), respectively, with the condition that all untraceable patients were alive. Assuming that the mortality rate of untraceable patients was twice as high as that of the general population, the SMR was 0.90 (0.68–1.19) for Group A and 0.92 (0.68–1.23) for Group B. The 5-year survival rates were 96.9% and 97.0% for Groups A and B, respectively. Conclusions: The 5-year mortality of patients with early RA has been comparable to that of the general Japanese population. The 5-year survival rate has been stable over the past 17 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: This population‐based study sought to explore in detail the conditions driving the diversification in causes of death among people with diabetes. Methods: We linked Australians with type 1 or type 2 diabetes of all ages on the National Diabetes Services Scheme to the National Death Index for 2002–2019. We investigated the proportional contributions of different causes of death to total deaths over time across eight categories of causes of death, stratified by sex and diabetes type. The underlying causes of death were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes. Results: Between 2002 and 2019, there was a shift in the causes of death among Australians with diabetes away from cardiovascular disease. The proportion of deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease declined in both sexes (ptrend <0.001), most substantially among women with type 2 diabetes from 48.2% in 2002 to 30.7% in 2019. Among men with type 2 diabetes, cancer replaced cardiovascular disease as the leading cause of death. The proportion of deaths due to dementia increased overall, from 2% in 2002 to over 7% in 2019, and across all age groups, notably from 1% to 4% in those aged 70–79. The proportion of deaths due to falls and Parkinson's disease also increased. Conclusions: There has been a shift of causes of death among those with diabetes away from cardiovascular disease. The proportion of deaths due to conditions such as dementia and falls is increasing among those with diabetes, which will require consideration when planning future resource allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article highlights the need to consider multiple causes of death during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the focus has been on COVID-19, other causes of death, such as cardiovascular diseases, have received less attention. The pandemic has had both direct and indirect effects on non-COVID-19 mortality, including long-term complications, strain on hospital resources, and reduced disease screening. The World Health Organization has provided guidelines for coding COVID-19 deaths on death certificates, prioritizing it as the underlying cause of death. However, this approach may alter mortality trends for other causes and lead to a misleading perception of their severity. Ongoing research is being conducted to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on other causes of death, and the use of multiple causes of death analysis is recommended for a more comprehensive understanding. [Extracted from the article]

Introduction: The current study, focusing on a significant US (United States) colorectal cancer (CRC) burden, employs machine learning for predicting future rates among young population. Methods: CDC WONDER data from 1999 to 2022 was analyzed for CRC-related mortality in patients younger than 56 years. Temporal trends in age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were assessed via Joinpoint software. Future mortality rates were forecasted using an optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results: From 1999 to 2022, we observed 150,908 deaths with CRC listed as the underlying cause, predominantly in males, with an upward trend in AAMR. The ARIMA model projects an increase in CRC mortality by 2035, estimating an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.3% overall, 1% for females, and 1.5% for males. Conclusion: Our study findings emphasize the need for more robust preventive measures to reduce future CRC mortality among younger population. These results have significant implications for public health policies, particularly for males under 56, and underscore the importance of early screening and lifestyle modifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Malnutrition mortality in older adults is underrepresented in scientific literature. This obscures any recent changes and hinders needed social change. This study aims to assess malnutrition mortality trends in older adults (≥ 65 years old) from 1999 to 2020 in the United States (U.S.). Methods Mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiology Research (WONDER) database were extracted. The ICD-10 Codes E40 – E46 were used to identify malnutrition deaths. Crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were extracted by gender, age, race, census region, and urban–rural classification. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate annual percentage changes (APC) of AAMR by the permutation test and the parametric method was used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. Average Annual Percentage Changes (AAPC) were calculated as the weighted average of APCs. Results Between 1999 and 2020, 93,244 older adults died from malnutrition. Malnutrition AAMR increased from 10.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 25.0 per 100,000 in 2020. The mortality trend declined from 1999 to 2006 (APC = –8.8; 95% CI: –10.0, –7.5), plateaued till 2013, then began to rise from 2013 to 2020 with an APC of 22.4 (95% CI: 21.3, 23.5) and an overall AAPC of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.1, 4.7). Persons ≥ 85 years of age, females, Non-Hispanic Whites, residents of the West region of the U.S., and urban areas had the highest AAPCs in their respective groups. Conclusion Despite some initial decrements in malnutrition mortality among older adults in the U.S., the uptrend from 2013 to 2020 nullified all established progress. The end result is that malnutrition mortality rates represent a historical high. The burden of the mortality uptrends disproportionately affected certain demographics, namely persons ≥ 85 years of age, females, Non-Hispanic Whites, those living in the West region of the U.S., and urban areas. Effective interventions are strongly needed. Such interventions should aim to ensure food security and early detection and remedy of malnutrition among older adults through stronger government-funded programs and social support systems, increased funding for nursing homes, and more cohesive patient-centered medical care.

Abstract Background This study aimed to determine long-term variations in mortality trends and identify the leading causes of death among older adults in China from 2009 to 2019 so as to propose interventions to further stabilise the mortality rate among older adults and facilitate healthy ageing. Methods We extracted data from the China Death Surveillance database from 2009 to 2019 for all-cause mortality and cause-specific death among individuals aged ≥ 65 years. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate mortality trends by calculating the annual percentage change (APC). A trend chi-square test was used to estimate sex differences in mortality, and descriptive analysis was used to estimate the leading causes of death. Semi-structured expert interviews were conducted to examine health interventions for older adults. Results We observed an overall declining trend in age-adjusted mortality rates among older adults aged ≥ 65 years in China from 2009 to 2019 (APC, -2.44; P

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the trends of 1-year mortality and neonatal morbidities in preterm infants with serious congenital heart disease (CHD). STUDY DESIGN: This cohort study used a population-based administrative dataset of all liveborn infants of 26-36 weeks gestational age with serious CHD born in California between 2011 and 2017. We assessed 1-year mortality and major neonatal morbidities (ie, retinopathy of prematurity, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, necrotizing enterocolitis, intraventricular hemorrhage grade >2, and periventricular leukomalacia) across the study period and compared these outcomes with those in infants without CHD. RESULTS: We identified 1921 preterm infants with serious CHD. The relative risk (RR) of death decreased by 10.6% for each year of the study period (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95), and the RR of major neonatal morbidity increased by 8.3% for each year (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.02-1.15). Compared with preterm neonates without any CHD (n = 234 522), the adjusted risk difference (ARD) for mortality was highest at 32 weeks of gestational age (9.7%; 95% CI, 8.3%-11.2%), that for major neonatal morbidity was highest at 28 weeks (21.9%; 95% CI, 17.0%-26.9%), and that for the combined outcome was highest at 30 weeks (26.7%; 95% CI, 23.3%-30.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in preterm neonates with serious CHD decreased over the last decade, whereas major neonatal morbidities increased. Preterm infants with a gestational age of 28-32 weeks have the highest mortality or morbidity compared with their peers without CHD. These results support the need for specialized and focused medical neonatal care in preterm neonates with serious CHD.

Background. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐COV‐2) is the virus responsible for the COVID‐19 (C19) pandemic. South Africa (SA) experienced multiple periods of increased transmission. Tertiary, regional and central hospitals were overwhelmed, resulting in low acceptance rates. Objectives. To compare mortality trends of patients who died in hospital from SARS‐CoV‐2 infection during the first three waves of infection as defined by the National Institute of Communicable Diseases of South Africa. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study at a district level hospital of 311 adults who died within the first three waves of COVID‐19. The study analysed case and crude fatality rates, baseline characteristics, symptomatology, clinical presentation and management of patients. Results. Waves 1, 2 and 3 yielded case fatality rates of 14.5%, 27.6% and 6.3%, respectively, and crude fatality rates of 16.7%, 33.0% and 12.2%, respectively. Black Africans were less likely to die during the third wave (odds ratio (OR) 0.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31 ‐ 0.94). Patients in the second wave had clinical frailty scores of

Abstract Introduction The current study, focusing on a significant US (United States) colorectal cancer (CRC) burden, employs machine learning for predicting future rates among young population. Methods CDC WONDER data from 1999 to 2022 was analyzed for CRC‐related mortality in patients younger than 56 years. Temporal trends in age‐adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were assessed via Joinpoint software. Future mortality rates were forecasted using an optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results From 1999 to 2022, we observed 150,908 deaths with CRC listed as the underlying cause, predominantly in males, with an upward trend in AAMR. The ARIMA model projects an increase in CRC mortality by 2035, estimating an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.3% overall, 1% for females, and 1.5% for males. Conclusion Our study findings emphasize the need for more robust preventive measures to reduce future CRC mortality among younger population. These results have significant implications for public health policies, particularly for males under 56, and underscore the importance of early screening and lifestyle modifications.

Background: Malnutrition mortality in older adults is underrepresented in scientific literature. This obscures any recent changes and hinders needed social change. This study aims to assess malnutrition mortality trends in older adults (≥ 65 years old) from 1999 to 2020 in the United States (U.S.). Methods: Mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiology Research (WONDER) database were extracted. The ICD-10 Codes E40 – E46 were used to identify malnutrition deaths. Crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were extracted by gender, age, race, census region, and urban–rural classification. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate annual percentage changes (APC) of AAMR by the permutation test and the parametric method was used to calculate 95% confidence intervals. Average Annual Percentage Changes (AAPC) were calculated as the weighted average of APCs. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, 93,244 older adults died from malnutrition. Malnutrition AAMR increased from 10.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 25.0 per 100,000 in 2020. The mortality trend declined from 1999 to 2006 (APC = –8.8; 95% CI: –10.0, –7.5), plateaued till 2013, then began to rise from 2013 to 2020 with an APC of 22.4 (95% CI: 21.3, 23.5) and an overall AAPC of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.1, 4.7). Persons ≥ 85 years of age, females, Non-Hispanic Whites, residents of the West region of the U.S., and urban areas had the highest AAPCs in their respective groups. Conclusion: Despite some initial decrements in malnutrition mortality among older adults in the U.S., the uptrend from 2013 to 2020 nullified all established progress. The end result is that malnutrition mortality rates represent a historical high. The burden of the mortality uptrends disproportionately affected certain demographics, namely persons ≥ 85 years of age, females, Non-Hispanic Whites, those living in the West region of the U.S., and urban areas. Effective interventions are strongly needed. Such interventions should aim to ensure food security and early detection and remedy of malnutrition among older adults through stronger government-funded programs and social support systems, increased funding for nursing homes, and more cohesive patient-centered medical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to determine long-term variations in mortality trends and identify the leading causes of death among older adults in China from 2009 to 2019 so as to propose interventions to further stabilise the mortality rate among older adults and facilitate healthy ageing. Methods: We extracted data from the China Death Surveillance database from 2009 to 2019 for all-cause mortality and cause-specific death among individuals aged ≥ 65 years. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate mortality trends by calculating the annual percentage change (APC). A trend chi-square test was used to estimate sex differences in mortality, and descriptive analysis was used to estimate the leading causes of death. Semi-structured expert interviews were conducted to examine health interventions for older adults. Results: We observed an overall declining trend in age-adjusted mortality rates among older adults aged ≥ 65 years in China from 2009 to 2019 (APC, -2.44; P < 0.05). In this population, the male mortality rate was higher than the female mortality rate during this period (P < 0.05). However, the mortality rate among older adults aged ≥ 85 years increased since 2014, particularly among females. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was the leading cause of death among older adults aged 65–84 years, whereas ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of death among individuals aged ≥ 85 years, especially among females. The majority of injuries resulting in death were caused by falls, showing an increasing trend. Conclusions: CVD is a major cause of death among older adults aged ≥ 65 years in China, and relevant health intervention strategies should be implemented from the perspectives of physiology, psychology, and living environment. The change in the mortality trend and the distribution of cause of death among older adults aged ≥ 85 years is noteworthy; a diagnostic and management model centred around females aged ≥ 85 years should be implemented. Additionally, a multidimensional fall prevention strategy involving primary medical institutions and care services needs to be implemented to reduce the risk of falls among older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aimed to analyze the age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 for gynecological cancer-related deaths in the United States from 1999 to 2020. We compare trends by different demographic groups to identify significant disparities in these rates between populations within the United States. Methods: The National Cancer Institute's Joinpoint Regression Program was used to calculate the average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) to identify trends over the study period using data from the CDC Wonder database, which comprises of demographic information for all causes of mortality in the United States from death certificate records. Results: From 1999 to 2020, the African American population exhibited a significant downtrend (AAPC, -0.8% [95% CI, – 1.0% to – 0.6%]; p < 0.01), while the white population also demonstrated a notable downtrend (AAPC, – 1.0% [95% CI, – 1.2% to – 0.8%]; p < 0.01). Similarly, the AI/AN population experienced a decline (AAPC, – 1.6% [95% CI, – 2.4% to – 0.9%]; p < 0.01). The AAPI population did not observe a significant trend (AAPC, – 0.2% [95% CI, – 0.5% to 0.5%]; p = 0.127). In addition, the Hispanic/LatinX population experiencing a lower rate of decline compared to non-Hispanics (p = 0.025). Conclusions: We found that the AI/AN population to observe the greatest downtrend in mortality rates, while the AAPI observed the least and that the African American population observed a smaller downtrend when compared to the white population. In addition, the Hispanic/LatinX community are significantly being underserved by developing therapies compared to the non-Hispanic/LatinX population. These findings provide valuable insights into the impact of gynecological cancers on specific demographic groups, emphasizing the urgency of targeted interventions to address disparities and improve outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the mortality trend of colorectal cancerr from 1990 to 2019, and to provider evidence for formulating prevention and treatment policies for colorectal cancer. Methods The; Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of colorectal cancer mortality. The; age - period - cohort (APC) model was used to estimate; the: age, period, and cohort elfects on the: risk of colorectal career mortality. Results From 1990 to 2019, the: standardized mortality rate: of colorectal cancer in China, female: anel nude: showexl a flue-tuating increase: trend, and the: average: annual percentage: change: was 1.049%, 0. 158%, and 1.712%, respectively. APC model showed that the: mortality risk of colorectal cancer in male: anel female: residents aged 90 to 94 years was 590 and 281 times higher than that in 10 to 14 years old residents, respectively. In terrnrs of period elfect, compare:! with 1990 - 1994, the: risk of death from colorectal cancer in mem and women in 2015 -2019 was 3. 36 times anel 1.90 times respectively; in terms of cohort elfect, the: mortality risk of colorectal cancer for mem and women horn in 1900 - 1904 was 68. 91 times and 45. 40 times higher than that horn in 2010 -2014, respectively. Conclusion The: mortality rate: of edorcctal eranccr is on the: increuse:. Colorectal canecr mortality is higher in males than in females. The: risk of death from colorectal eranccr ine:re:ases with age: and period. The: elderly are: the: key monitoring group; the: later the: residents are: horn, the: lower the: risk of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveTo assess the mortality trends of four major histological subtypes of cervical cancer diagnosed between 1994 and 2018.MethodsThis population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Osaka Cancer Registry data from 1994 to 2018. A total of 12,003 patients with cervical cancer, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), adenocarcinoma (A), adenosquamous cell carcinoma (AS), or small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (SCNEC) were identified. Patients were classified into groups according to the extent of disease (localized, regional, or distant), year of diagnosis (1994–2002, 2003–2010, or 2011–2018), and histological subtype (SCC, A/AS, or SCNEC). Then, their survival rates were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses.ResultsOverall, improved survival rates were observed according to the year of diagnosis in patients with local, regional, and distant cervical cancers. When examined according to the histological subtypes, improved survival rates according to the year of diagnosis were observed in patients with local, regional, and distant SCCs and in those with local and regional A/AS. In patients with distant A/AS, the survival rates did not improve since 2003. In patients with cervical cancer with SCNEC, the survival rates did not improve since 1994 irrespective of the extent of the disease. In the multivariate analysis, non-SCC histology was found to be an independent prognostic factor for OS.ConclusionIn contrast to SCC histology associated with improved survival between 1994 and 2018, SCNEC histology and advanced (stage IVB) A/AS remain to be the unmet medical needs for the management of cervical cancer.

IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 690 million deaths worldwide. Different results concerning the death rates of the Delta and Omicron variants have been recorded. We aimed to assess the secular trend of case fatality rate (CFR), identify risk factors associated with mortality following COVID-19 diagnosis, and investigate the risks of mortality and hospitalization during Delta and Omicron waves in the United States.MethodsThis study assessed 2,857,925 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the United States from January 2020, to June 2022. The inclusion criterion was the presence of COVID-19 diagnostic codes in electronic medical record or a positive laboratory test of the SARS-CoV-2. Statistical analysis was bifurcated into two components, longitudinal analysis and comparative analysis. To assess the discrepancies in hospitalization and mortality rates for COVID-19, we identified the prevailing periods for the Delta and Omicron variants.ResultsLongitudinal analysis demonstrated four sharp surges in the number of deaths and CFR. The CFR was persistently higher in males and older age. The CFR of Black and White remained higher than Asians since January 2022. In comparative analysis, the adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and hospitalization were higher in Delta wave compared to the Omicron wave. Risk of all-cause mortality was found to be greater 14–30 days after a COVID-19 diagnosis, while the likelihood of hospitalization was higher in the first 14 days following a COVID-19 diagnosis in Delta wave compared with Omicron wave. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed the cumulative probability of mortality was approximately 2-fold on day 30 in Delta than in Omicron cases (log-rank p

Routinely collected and linked healthcare administrative datasets could be used to monitor mortality among people with hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV). This study aimed to evaluate the concordance in records of liver‐related mortality among people with an HBV or HCV notification, between data on hospitalization for end‐stage liver disease (ESLD) and death certificates. In New South Wales, Australia, HBV and HCV notifications (1993–2017) were linked to hospital admissions (2001–2018), all‐cause mortality (1993–2018) and cause‐specific mortality (1993–2016) datasets. Hospitalization for ESLD was defined as a first‐time hospital admission due to decompensated cirrhosis (DC) or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Consistency of liver death definition of mortality following hospitalization for ESLD was compared with two death certificate‐based definitions of liver deaths coded among primary and secondary cause‐specific mortality data, including ESLD‐related (deaths due to DC and HCC) and all‐liver deaths (ESLD‐related and other liver‐related causes). Of 63,292 and 107,430 individuals with an HBV and HCV notification, there were 4478 (2.6%) post‐ESLD hospitalization deaths, 5572 (3.3%) death certificate liver disease deaths and 2910 (1.7%) death certificate ESLD deaths. Between 2001 and 2016, among HBV post‐ESLD hospitalization deaths (n = 891), 63% (562) had death certificate ESLD recorded, and 83% (741) had death certificate liver disease recorded. Between 2001 and 2016, among HCV post‐ESLD hospitalization deaths (n = 3587), 58% (2082) had death certificate ESLD recorded, and 87% (3135) had death certificate liver disease recorded. At least one‐third of death certificates with DC and HCC as cause of death had no mention of HBV, HCV or viral hepatitis. Our study identified limitations in estimating and tracking HBV and HCV liver disease mortality using death certificate‐based data only. The optimum data for this purpose is either ESLD hospitalisations with vital status information or a combination of these with cause‐specific death certificate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is an evolving need to evaluate atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) mortality trends across races, sexes, geographic regions and urbanization statuses to better understand management inequalities. Methods: This observational study utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide‐Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Mortality rates due to AF/AFL as underlying and contributing causes of death between 2010 and 2020 were investigated. Mortality trends due to AF/AFL as contributing causes of death for different races, sexes, census regions and urbanization statuses were analyzed using annual percentage change (APC), and Joinpoint regression analysis. Results: Mortality from AF/AFL as the underlying cause was increasing across the US until 2016 (APC 4.8%), followed by a plateau 2016–2020 (APC 0.0 %). Conversely, the mortality rate due to AF/AFL as a contributing cause increases 2010–2020 (APC 3.3%). The mortality rate in both sexes significantly increased in almost all groups, with the largest increase seen in Non‐Hispanic Black males. Rural areas had a higher mortality rate (36.9 and 22.9 per 100,000 for males and females in 2020, respectively) and higher slope of increase than urban areas in total US population. Non‐Hispanic White people had greater mortality than Non‐Hispanic Black people; however, Non‐Hispanic Black mortality rates are increasing at a faster rate in urban areas. Conclusion: AF/AFL as the underlying cause of death has plateaued from 2016 across the US 2010–2020; whilst AF/AFL as contributing cause of death is increasing. Significant discrepancies in mortality rates are identified between races and urbanization status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background People with dermatomyositis (DM) or polymyositis (PM) often die from cancer, pulmonary, cardiac complications, or infections. In such cases, DM or PM might not be designated as the underlying cause of death (UCD) for mortality tabulation. In this study, we investigated DM/PM mortality trends in the USA from 1981 to 2020 with respect to UCD and multiple causes of death (MCD) data. Methods We used the MCD data to identify all deaths with DM or PM mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and as the UCD in the USA from 1981–1982 to 2019–2020. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and annual percentage changes (APCs) based on joinpoint regression analysis. Results We identified 12,249 (3985 with DM and 7097 with PM) and 23,608 (8264 with DM and 15,344 with PM) people who died between 1981 and 2020 according to the UCD and MCD data, respectively. For DM, the APC was − 6.7% (from 1981–1982 to 1985–1986), − 0.1% (from 1985–1986 to 2003–2004), and − 1.9% (from 2003–2004 to 2019–2020) according UCD and was − 1.2% (from 1981–1982 to 2003–2004), − 2.5% (from 2003–2004 to 2015–2016), and 2.8% (from 2015–2016 to 2019–2020) according MCD. For PM, the APC was 1.9% (from 1981–1982 to 1989–1990), − 2.3% (from 1989–1990 to 2005–2006), and − 5.2% (from 2005–2006 to 2019–2020) according UCD and was 1.3% (from 1981–1982 to 1991–1992) and − 4.1% (from 1991–1992 to 2019–2020) according MCD. Conclusion We identified two times as many DM/PM deaths using the MCD as those identified using the UCD. Similar downward DM/PM mortality trends were noted according to UCD and MCD. However, the year of significant decline in PM mortality was about 10 years earlier according to MCD than those according to UCD.

Recent declines in life expectancy in the US, especially for middle-aged White persons, have called attention to mortality from deaths of despair – deaths due to alcohol, drugs, and suicide. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and the U.S. Census Bureau, this paper examined deaths of despair by race/ethnicity, age, cause of death, birth cohort, and sex in Missouri. We focused on Area Agencies on Aging as geographic units of interest to increase usefulness of our findings to public administrators. Deaths of despair began trending up for all age groups beginning in 2007–2009, with the sharpest increases occurring for Black or African American non-Hispanics beginning in 2013–2015. The most dramatic increases occurred for the population age 50–59 in St. Louis City and Area Agency on Aging regions in southern Missouri. For older adults, considerable variation in rates, trends, and cause of deaths of despair is evident across the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to describe the long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in people with type 2 diabetes based on subgroups defined by sociodemographic characteristics and risk factors. Methods: We defined a cohort of individuals aged ≥35 years who had newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 January 1998 and 30 November 2018. We assessed trends in all-cause, all-cancer and cancer-specific mortality rates by age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, obesity and smoking status. We used Poisson regression to calculate age- and calendar year-specific mortality rates and Joinpoint regression to assess trends for each outcome. We estimated standardised mortality ratios comparing mortality rates in people with type 2 diabetes with those in the general population. Results: Among 137,804 individuals, during a median follow-up of 8.4 years, all-cause mortality rates decreased at all ages between 1998 and 2018; cancer mortality rates also decreased for 55- and 65-year-olds but increased for 75- and 85-year-olds, with average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of –1.4% (95% CI –1.5, –1.3), –0.2% (–0.3, –0.1), 1.2% (0.8, 1.6) and 1.6% (1.5, 1.7), respectively. Higher AAPCs were observed in women than men (1.5% vs 0.5%), in the least deprived than the most deprived (1.5% vs 1.0%) and in people with morbid obesity than those with normal body weight (5.8% vs 0.7%), although all these stratified subgroups showed upward trends in cancer mortality rates. Increasing cancer mortality rates were also observed in people of White ethnicity and former/current smokers, but downward trends were observed in other ethnic groups and non-smokers. These results have led to persistent inequalities by gender and deprivation but widening disparities by smoking status. Constant upward trends in mortality rates were also observed for pancreatic, liver and lung cancer at all ages, colorectal cancer at most ages, breast cancer at younger ages, and prostate and endometrial cancer at older ages. Compared with the general population, people with type 2 diabetes had a more than 1.5-fold increased risk of colorectal, pancreatic, liver and endometrial cancer mortality during the whole study period. Conclusions/interpretation: In contrast to the declines in all-cause mortality rates at all ages, the cancer burden has increased in older people with type 2 diabetes, especially for colorectal, pancreatic, liver and endometrial cancer. Tailored cancer prevention and early detection strategies are needed to address persistent inequalities in the older population, the most deprived and smokers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Primary malignant brain and other central nervous system tumors are rare cancers that have shown rising mortality rates in recent years. To elucidate potential factors involved in this rising death rate, we examined mortality trends for primary malignant BT in the United States stratified by histopathology groupings, age, race, and sex. Methods: Mortality rates for demographic factors within primary malignant BT were generated using the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics Systems data from 2004 to 2018. Additionally, histopathology-specific incidence-based mortality rates were calculated using the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) 18 data from 2004 to 2018. Joinpoint modeling was used to estimate mortality trends and annual percent changes with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Results: Overall, there was a very small increase in mortality from 2004 to 2018. Individuals > 65 years saw a small increase in mortality, while changes in individuals of other ages were non-significant. Asian/Pacific Islander or American Indian/Alaskan Native had the largest increase in mortality. Among histopathology groupings, there was a small mortality increase in adults ages > 65 years with glioblastoma, while the mortality rate of other malignant gliomas declined in the same age group. CNS lymphoma mortality rates in patients ages 15–39 and 40–64 years declined significantly while rising significantly in the > 65 age group. In pediatric patients, embryonal tumor mortality had a non-significant increase between 2004 and 2007 but declined significantly between 2007 and 2018. Conclusion: Examining age, race, sex, and histopathology-specific mortality trends at the population level can provide important information for clinicians, researchers, and aid in public health planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Our previous research on neuroendocrine and gastric cancers has shown that patients living in rural areas have worse outcomes than urban patients. This study aimed to investigate the geographic and sociodemographic disparities in esophageal cancer patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study on esophageal cancer patients between 1975 and 2016 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Both univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) between patients residing in rural (RA) and urban (MA) areas. Further, we used the National Cancer Database to understand differences in various quality of care metrics based on residence. Results: N = 49,421 (RA [12%]; MA [88%]). The incidence and mortality rates were consistently higher during the study period in RA. Patients living in RA were more commonly males (p < 0.001), Caucasian (p < 0.001), and had adenocarcinoma (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that RA had worse OS (HR = 1.08; p < 0.01) and DSS (HR = 1.07; p < 0.01). Quality of care was similar, except RA patients were more likely to be treated at a community hospital (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our study identified geographic disparities in esophageal cancer incidence and outcomes despite the similar quality of care. Future research is needed to understand and attenuate such disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Upon the addition of the numbers corresponding to various cancer anatomical locations in the report published by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), the absolute number and proportion of deaths due to all cancers increased from 36 726 (8.0%) in 2013 to 40 460 (8.5%) in 2015. These high figures suggest that malignant neoplasms were in fact the second-most frequent cause of death in South Africa (SA) in 2013, and moved to the first rank in 2015. Objectives. To support the initiative aimed at reducing cancer mortality in SA. To this purpose, we assessed trends in cancer mortality rates among males and females in SA from 1997 to 2016 to better understand the increasing threat of cancer mortality in SA. Methods. The general mortality data for the period 1997 - 2016, as captured from death certificates in SA, was retrieved from StatsSA. Agestandardised mortality rates (ASMR) for each year were computed using the world standard population structure proposed by Segi as the reference population. The adjusted rates were reported per 100 000 population per year. The years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) due to cancer deaths were calculated for each age group and gender. Results. There were 681 689 total cancer deaths from 1997 to 2016, with 51.1% males and 48.9% females. Males had higher mortality rates than females. The ASMR ranged from 105.0 to 129.2 and 67.9 to 88.3 per 100 000 population per year among males and females, respectively. In 2004, the cancer mortality rate increased significantly among males (129.2 per 100 000 population), which was 1.5 times higher than in females (88.3 per 100 000 population). Among males, cancer of the lung had the highest YPPLL (394 779.3), followed by oesophageal (253 989.4) and liver (207 911.0). The YPPLL for cancer of the cervix (647 855.5) ranked first, followed by breast (483 863.6) and lung (146 304.6) in females. Conclusion. Cancer mortality rates have increased since 1997, regardless of gender. Overall, there was a decline in YPPLL for cancer in the young population, while it increased in the adult population. A significant reduction in cancer deaths could be achieved by broadly applying effective interventions

Background: South Africa experienced high mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Resources were limited, particularly at the district hospital (DH) level. Overwhelmed healthcare facilities and a lack of research at a primary care level made the management of patients with COVID-19 challenging. The objective of this study was to describe the in-hospital mortality trends among individuals with COVID-19 at a DH in South Africa. Methods: Retrospective observational analysis of all adults who demised in hospital from COVID-19 between 01 March 2020 and 31 August 2021 at a DH in South Africa. Variables analysed included: background history, clinical presentation, investigations and management. Results: Of the 328 participants who demised in hospital, 60.1% were female, 66.5% were older than 60 and 59.6% were of black African descent. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common comorbidities (61.3% and 47.6%, respectively). The most common symptoms were dyspnoea (83.8%) and cough (70.1%). ‘Ground-glass’ features on admission chest X-rays were visible in 90.0% of participants, and 82.8% had arterial oxygen saturations less than 95% on admission. Renal impairment was the most common complication present on admission (63.7%). The median duration of admission before death was four days (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.5–8). The overall crude fatality rate was 15.3%, with the highest crude fatality rate found in wave two (33.0%). Conclusion: Older participants with uncontrolled comorbidities were most likely to demise from COVID-19. Wave two (characterised by the ‘Beta’ variant) had the highest mortality rate. Contribution: This study provides insight into the risk factors associated with death in a resource-constrained environment.

Since 2010, US life expectancy growth has stagnated. Much research on US mortality has focused on working-age adults given adverse trends in drug overdose deaths, other external causes of death, and cardiometabolic deaths in midlife. We show that the adverse mortality trend at retirement ages (65+ y) has in fact been more consequential to the US life expectancy stagnation since 2010, as well as excess deaths and years of life lost in 2019, than adverse mortality trends at working ages. These results reveal that the United States is experiencing a "double jeopardy" that is driven by both mid-life and older-age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality. Understanding and addressing the causes behind the worsening mortality trend in older ages will be essential to returning to the pace of life expectancy improvements that the United States had experienced for decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeThe aim of the study was to assess mortality trends in Poland between 2000 and 2019 in the early and late old age population (65–74 years and over 75 years).MethodsThe work used data on all deaths of Polish residents aged over 65 years (N = 5,496,970). The analysis included the five most common major groups of causes of death: diseases of the circulatory system, malignant neoplasms, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the digestive system and external causes of mortality. The analysis of time trends has been carried out with the use of joinpoint models. The Annual Percentage Change (APC) for each segments of broken lines, the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for the whole study period (95% CI), and standardized death rates (SDRs) were calculated.ResultsThe percentage of deaths due to diseases of the circulatory system decreased in all the studied subgroups. Among malignant neoplasms, lung and bronchus cancers accounted for the largest percentage of deaths, for which the SDRs among men decreased, while those among women increased. In the early old age, the SDR value increased from 67.8 to 76.3 (AAPC = 0.6%, p > 0.05), while in the late old age group it increased from 112.1 to 155.2 (AAPC = 1.8%, p < 0.05). Among men, there was an upward trend for prostate cancer (AAPC = 0.4% in the early old age group and AAPC = 0.6% in the late old age group, p > 0.05) and a downward trend for stomach cancer (AAPC −3.2 and −2.7%, respectively, p < 0.05). Stomach cancer also showed a decreasing trend among women (AAPC −3.2 and −3.6%, p < 0.05). SDRs due to influenza and pneumonia were increasing. Increasing trends in mortality due to diseases of the digestive system in women and men in the early old age group have been observed in recent years, due to alcoholic liver disease. Among the external causes of mortality in the late old age group, the most common ones were falls.ConclusionsIt is necessary to conduct further research that will allow to diagnose risk and health problems of the elderly subpopulation in order to meet the health burden of the aging society.

Infective endocarditis (IE) remains a life-threatening disease with high morbidity and mortality. To describe temporal trends in IE incidence, mortality and survival over the last 30 years. Nineteen high-income countries (the 'EU 15+') were included. Age-standardised and sex-stratified incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) for IE were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database between 1990 and 2019, and mortality to incidence ratios (ASMIRs) were calculated. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis. ASIRs were higher in males than females and increased in both sexes in all countries between 1990 and 2019. A recent steep rise in ASIRs was noted in several countries including the UK, the USA and Germany. ASMRs increased for both sexes in all countries except Finland and Austria. The largest increase in ASMR was observed in females in Italy (+246%). ASMIRs were generally higher in females compared to males, with large increases in ASMIRs (indicating worsening survival) at the end of the 20th century, but more recent stabilisation or decline across the study cohort. While the incidence and mortality of IE have increased over the last 30 years, recent data suggest that these trends have plateaued or reversed in most countries studied. However, a recent surge in incidence in several countries (including the USA and UK) is of concern, while unfavourable outcomes in females also merit attention. More encouragingly, this analysis provides the first indication of improving IE survival at population level, supporting recent advances in diagnosis and treatment. • Infective endocarditis incidence and mortality increased over the last 30 years • These trends plateaued over the last decade in most included high-income countries • There has been a recent surge in incidence in several countries including the USA and the UK • Adverse survival trends were observed in females • There was a recent trend of Improving IE survival at the population level [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A one-third reduction in premature mortality (30-69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases is goal 3.4 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG). The burden of NCDs is expected to continue to increase in low- and middle-income countries, including Brazil. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess geographical and temporal patterns in premature cancer mortality in Brazil between 2001 and 2015 and to predict this to 2030 in order to benchmark against the 3.4 SDG target. Methods: We used data on deaths from cancer in those aged 30-69, by age group, sex and cancer site, between 2001 and 2015 from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM). After correcting for ill-defined causes, crude and world age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated nationally and for the 5 regions. Predictions were calculated using NordPred, up to 2030. Results: The difference in observed (2011-2015) and predicted (2026-2030) mortality was compared against the SDG 3.4 target. Between 2011-2015 and 2026-2030 a 12.0% reduction in premature cancer age-standardised mortality rate among males and 4.6% reduction among females is predicted nationally. Across regions this varied from 2.8% among females in North region to 14.7% among males in South region. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease among males but not among females nationally (men 28%, females 1.1% increase) and in all regions. Cervical cancer mortality rates are projected to remain very high in the North. Colorectal cancer mortality rates will increase for both sexes in all regions except the Southeast. Conclusions and recommendation: Cancer premature mortality is expected to decrease in Brazil, but the extent of the decrease will be far from the SDG 3.4 target. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching the SDG 3.4 target, reflecting the government's long-term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. Projected colorectal cancer mortality increases likely reflect the epidemiological transition. This and, cervical cancer control will continue to be major challenges. These results will help inform strategic planning for cancer primary prevention, early detection and treatment programs; such initiatives should take cognizance of the regional differences highlighted here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antecedents. In the American Continent, suicide has reached epidemic proportions in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Objective. To analyze the death trend due to suicide in Mexico from 1980 to 2015, focusing on epidemiological and socio-demographic variables. Method. A longitudinal epidemiological time-series study collected data over 35 years (1980-2015). Results. In contrast to 1980, when 973 deaths occurred, in 2015, there were 6,421. In both periods, the percentage was similar, 80% in men and 20% in women. The main methods changed, with more hangings and less use of firearms and poisoning. Age-wise, a higher proportion occurred between 15 and 29 years, for both men and women. The states with the highest prevalence in 1980 were Tabasco and Veracruz; in 2015, they were the state of Mexico, Jalisco, and Guanajuato. Discussion. Significantly more suicides have been occurring in Mexico in the last 36 years, related to age group (under 20 and over 65) and sex (men), as well as changing methods to achieve it (hanging). These findings lead to recommend continuing to observe suicidal behavior, especially in young people between 15 and 29 years of age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: There is a demand to update national mortality trends data related to sickle cell disease (SCD) in Brazil. This study describes causes of death and mortality issues related to SCD using the multiple-cause-of-death methodology. Methods: The annual SCD mortality data was extracted from the public databases of the Mortality Information System by researching deaths in rubric D57 “sickle-cell disorders” of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision and processed by the Multiple Cause Tabulator. Results: From 2000 to 2018 in Brazil, a total of 9817 deaths related to SCD occurred during the 19-year period, as the underlying cause in 6924 (70.5%) and as the associated cause of death in 2893 (29.5%). The mean and median ages at death during the entire period were significantly lower for males, 29.4 (±19.6) and 27.5 (15.5–41.5), respectively, than for females, 33.3 (±20.3) and 31.0 (19.5–46.5), respectively. The leading SCD overall associated causes of death were septicemias (32.1%), followed by pneumonias (19.4%) and respiratory failure (18.2%). On certificates with SCD as an associated cause, the underlying causes of death were circulatory system diseases (8.7%), followed, in males, by digestive system and infectious diseases and respiratory system failures, while in females, maternal deaths, included in the chapter on pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium, accounting for 4.6% of female deaths, were succeeded by digestive system and infectious diseases. Conclusion: This study revised mortality data on death rate trends, underlying and associated causes of death, age at death and regional distribution of death in Brazil.

Background. Many scientific reports have shown a decrease in total cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) mortality over the past few decades, but too little attention has been paid to premature mortality. CeVD accounted for 22.5% and 17.8% of premature cardiovascular disease deaths in Poland, in 2000 and 2016, respectively. Objective. The aim of the study was to analyse premature CeVD mortality in the Polish population in the recent years, the dynamics of its changes and the potential factors that may have contributed to the decline in mortality. The main goal of the study was to overview the levels and trends in premature CeVD mortality with an emphasis on haemorrhagic, ischaemic and unspecified (not specified as haemorrhagic or ischaemic) stroke. Material and methods. The analysis was based on a database of the Central Statistical Office of Poland and included data from 2000-2016 on premature cerebrovascular deaths occurring between 25 and 64 years of age (N=104,786). CeVD and haemorrhagic, ischaemic or unspecified stroke were coded with ICD-10 codes I60-I69, I61-I62, I63 and I64, respectively. The analysis included assessment of CeVD deaths distribution and evaluation of age-specific mortality rates in 10-year age groups and age-standardised mortality rates (SMR) in the age group 25-64 years, separately for men and women. Trends in SMRs have been studied in the period 2000-2016. Results. The number of CeVD deaths decreased by 32.8% in men and 48.8% in women. There was a two-fold decline in CeVD mortality: from 59 to 29 male and from 30 to 12 female per 100,000. In addition, a 2-year increase in the median age of CeVD death was observed (Men: 56.4 to 58.4 years, Women: 56.4 to 58.7 years, p

• Both cardiovascular diseases and prostate cancer lead to a higher risk of mortality, especially in older men. • During the 20-year study period, the rise in mortality since 2015 is alarming. • NH Black or African American men had the highest death rates. • Geographical disparities were evident with the West and rural areas having the highest fatality. • Understanding these disparities is crucial for better healthcare provision. There is a significant association between cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and prostate cancer (PCa), leading to high mortality. This study evaluates the trends in mortality associated with CVDs and PCa among older (≥ 65 years) men in the United States (US). This analysis utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). The analysis of Multiple Cause of Death Files was carried out from 1999 to 2019 to identify fatalities with CVD and PCa listed as either contributory or underlying causes of death. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 populations for variables such as year, race and ethnicity, and geographic regions were determined. To assess annual percent change (APC), a Joinpoint regression program was employed. Overall AAMR was 54.3 in 1999 and 34.6 in 2019. After a decline in AAMR from 1999 to 2015, an alarming rise in mortality was observed until 2019. Mortality rates were highest among Non-Hispanic (NH) Black and African American men (74.9). Geographically, the highest mortalities were witnessed in the West (46.4) and non-metropolitan areas (44.6). States with AAMRs ranking in the 90th percentile were Nebraska, California, North Dakota, the District of Columbia, and Mississippi. After decreasing death rates associated with CVD and PCa from 1999 to 2015, a reversal in the trend was observed from 2015 to 2019. Addressing this increase in death rates, especially among the vulnerable population, requires focused attention and targeted strategies to implement necessary safeguards in the upcoming years. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Mortality due to opioid overdose has increased for adolescents and young adults from 1999 to 2020. • Mortality due to opioid-stimulant co-involvement overdose has increased for non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic adolescents and young adults from 1999 to 2020. • The greatest Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) for opioid and opioid-stimulant overdose mortality was seen among non-Hispanic Black adolescents and young adults. Previous reports have described variations in opioid overdose mortalities among different race/ethnicity groups. We have analyzed racial/ethnicity trends in opioid and polysubstance opioid overdose mortalities in adolescents and young adults to further characterize differences and potential sub-epidemics within this specific population. We used mortality data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) Multiple Cause of Death file from 1999 to 2020. Drug overdose mortalities were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes. Joinpoint regression was used to examine mortality rates for all opioids, opioids with a stimulant, opioids with benzodiazepines, and opioids with alcohol among racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic other) in adolescents and young adults. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) for mortality due to opioid and polysubstance opioid overdose increased for all racial/ethnic groups where data was available for analysis from 1999 to 2020. For mortality due to any opioid and any opioid with a stimulant, the greatest AAPC was seen among non-Hispanic Blacks. Unprecedented increases in mortality due to opioid overdose occurred in the last two decades among adolescents and young adults. Heterogenous trends support the notion that the previously defined opioid overdose epidemic "waves" may not accurately depict the effects of the crisis in all race/ethnicity groups. Additionally, alarming increases in opioid-stimulant overdose mortality starting in 2012 further characterize the interrelated effects of the third and fourth waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the main etiology of cryoglobulinemia with mortality around 25%. Little is known on the changes in cryoglobulinemia mortality after the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for treatment of HCV in 2014 in the USA. Methods We used the multiple-cause mortality files compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics to calculate cryoglobulinemia mortality from 1999 to 2018. The proportionate mortality ratio (PMR) of cryoglobulinemia cases with HCV and those with autoimmune diseases was computed to assess the impact of introduction of DAA. Results We identified 1299 people aged ≥ 20 years who died with cryoglobulinemia between 1999 and 2018. The cryoglobulinemia mortality (deaths per million) declined from 1999 (0.4) to 2010 (0.22) and mildly increased to 2014 (0.26), and then decreased abruptly from 2014 to 2018 (0.19) with annual percent change of − 14.3%. The proportion of cryoglobulinemia patients with HCV was 39% (118/302) in 2009–2013 and 26% (81/310) in 2014–2018, with a PMR of 0.67 (95% CI 0.50–0.89). By contrast, the proportion of cryoglobulinemia patients with systemic autoimmune diseases was 2.6% (8/302) in 2009–2013 and 4.2% (13/310) in 2014–2018, with a PMR of 1.58 (95% CI 0.66–3.82). Conclusion The changes in cryoglobulinemia mortality during the past two decades are mainly related to the aging and dying of the “baby boomer” cohort who had a high HCV prevalence and to the introduction of a DAA in 2014.

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003–2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan–Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003–2018 and by 59% in children aged

Objectives: The aim of the study was to assess mortality trends due to suicide in Poland in the years 2000–2019 with the use of joinpoint regression.Methods: The study analysed all suicide deaths in Poland in the years 2000–2019 (N = 113,355). Age-standardised death rates (SDRs), the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were determined.Results: In the male group, SDR was 29.3 in 2000 and 21.6 in 2019, in the female group, SDR decreased from 5.2 to 3.0. In 2019, the highest SDR values were noted in the group aged between 45 and 64 years. The most common method of suicide was hanging. In 2019, odds ratios (OR) of death due to suicide for age groups 15–24 years vs. 65 years or above were 51.47 among men and 181.89 among women. With regards to primary vs. tertiary education, OR values were 1.08 and 0.25, respectively; for single vs. widowed individuals 8.22 and 12.35; while for rural vs. urban residents 1.60 and 1.15.Conclusion: There is a need to implement educational programmes, primarily designed for young people.

BackgroundA one-third reduction in premature mortality (30-69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases is goal 3.4 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG). The burden of NCDs is expected to continue to increase in low- and middle-income countries, including Brazil.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess geographical and temporal patterns in premature cancer mortality in Brazil between 2001 and 2015 and to predict this to 2030 in order to benchmark against the 3.4 SDG target.MethodsWe used data on deaths from cancer in those aged 30-69, by age group, sex and cancer site, between 2001 and 2015 from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM). After correcting for ill-defined causes, crude and world age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated nationally and for the 5 regions. Predictions were calculated using NordPred, up to 2030.ResultsThe difference in observed (2011-2015) and predicted (2026-2030) mortality was compared against the SDG 3.4 target. Between 2011-2015 and 2026-2030 a 12.0% reduction in premature cancer age-standardised mortality rate among males and 4.6% reduction among females is predicted nationally. Across regions this varied from 2.8% among females in North region to 14.7% among males in South region. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease among males but not among females nationally (men 28%, females 1.1% increase) and in all regions. Cervical cancer mortality rates are projected to remain very high in the North. Colorectal cancer mortality rates will increase for both sexes in all regions except the Southeast.Conclusions and recommendationCancer premature mortality is expected to decrease in Brazil, but the extent of the decrease will be far from the SDG 3.4 target. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching the SDG 3.4 target, reflecting the government’s long-term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. Projected colorectal cancer mortality increases likely reflect the epidemiological transition. This and, cervical cancer control will continue to be major challenges. These results will help inform strategic planning for cancer primary prevention, early detection and treatment programs; such initiatives should take cognizance of the regional differences highlighted here.

Summary: Background: An up-to-date analysis of gastric cancer mortality among Hispanic/Latino populations is required for estimating disease burden and assessing the effectiveness of clinical and preventive strategies. Methods: We retrieved gastric cancer deaths between 1997 and 2017 (as available) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (United States Hispanics) and the World Health Organization databases (Puerto Rico, 16 Latin American and Caribbean countries). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR; per 100 000 person-years) and calculate average annual percent changes (AAPCs) by country (or territory), age group (25–49 and ≥50 years), and sex. Trends were compared to assess slope parallelism. Findings: In 2017, Chile (31·8), Colombia (24·3) and Costa Rica (24·3) had the highest ASMR of gastric cancer for men, while Guatemala (17·2), Peru (13·5), and Costa Rica (13·3) had the highest ASMR for women. Small-to-moderate mortality declines (AAPCs ranged −4 to −0.5%) were observed between 1997 and 2017. In almost all countries, trends decreased among individuals aged ≥50 years. However, age-specific trends were not parallel (p-values