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1. Climate Adaptation with Reinforcement Learning: Experiments with Flooding and Transportation in Copenhagen

Author

Costa, Miguel, Petersen, Morten W., Vandervoort, Arthur, Drews, Martin, Morrissey, Karyn, and Pereira, Francisco C.

Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning
Abstract

Due to climate change the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, which contribute to urban flooding, are expected to increase in many places. These floods can damage transport infrastructure and disrupt mobility, highlighting the need for cities to adapt to escalating risks. Reinforcement learning (RL) serves as a powerful tool for uncovering optimal adaptation strategies, determining how and where to deploy adaptation measures effectively, even under significant uncertainty. In this study, we leverage RL to identify the most effective timing and locations for implementing measures, aiming to reduce both direct and indirect impacts of flooding. Our framework integrates climate change projections of future rainfall events and floods, models city-wide motorized trips, and quantifies direct and indirect impacts on infrastructure and mobility. Preliminary results suggest that our RL-based approach can significantly enhance decision-making by prioritizing interventions in specific urban areas and identifying the optimal periods for their implementation.

Published
2024

2. Fostering Engagement With Health and Housing Innovation: Development of Participant Personas in a Social Housing Cohort

Author

Williams, Andrew James, Menneer, Tamaryn, Sidana, Mansi, Walker, Tim, Maguire, Kath, Mueller, Markus, Paterson, Cheryl, Leyshon, Michael, Leyshon, Catherine, Seymour, Emma, Howard, Zoë, Bland, Emma, Morrissey, Karyn, and Taylor, Timothy J

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

BackgroundPersonas, based on customer or population data, are widely used to inform design decisions in the commercial sector. The variety of methods available means that personas can be produced from projects of different types and scale. ObjectiveThis study aims to experiment with the use of personas that bring together data from a survey, household air measurements and electricity usage sensors, and an interview within a research and innovation project, with the aim of supporting eHealth and eWell-being product, process, and service development through broadening the engagement with and understanding of the data about the local community. MethodsThe project participants were social housing residents (adults only) living in central Cornwall, a rural unitary authority in the United Kingdom. A total of 329 households were recruited between September 2017 and November 2018, with 235 (71.4%) providing complete baseline survey data on demographics, socioeconomic position, household composition, home environment, technology ownership, pet ownership, smoking, social cohesion, volunteering, caring, mental well-being, physical and mental health–related quality of life, and activity. K-prototype cluster analysis was used to identify 8 clusters among the baseline survey responses. The sensor and interview data were subsequently analyzed by cluster and the insights from all 3 data sources were brought together to produce the personas, known as the Smartline Archetypes. ResultsThe Smartline Archetypes proved to be an engaging way of presenting data, accessible to a broader group of stakeholders than those who accessed the raw anonymized data, thereby providing a vehicle for greater research engagement, innovation, and impact. ConclusionsThrough the adoption of a tool widely used in practice, research projects could generate greater policy and practical impact, while also becoming more transparent and open to the public.

Published
2021
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4. Green or greedy: the relationship between perceived benefits and homeowners' intention to adopt residential low-carbon technologies

Author

Scheller, Fabian, Morrissey, Karyn, Neuhoff, Karsten, and Keles, Dogan

Subjects
Economics - General Economics
Abstract

Transitioning to a net-zero economy requires a nuanced understanding of homeowners decision-making pathways when considering the adoption of Low Carbon Technologies (LCTs). These LCTs present both personal and collective benefits, with positive perceptions critically influencing attitudes and intentions. Our study analyses the relationship between two primary benefits: the household-level financial gain and the broader environmental advantage. Focusing on the intention to adopt Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems, Energy Efficient Appliances, and Green Electricity Tariffs, we employ Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling to demonstrate that the adoption intention of the LCTs is underpinned by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Attitudes toward the LCTs are more strongly related to product-specific benefits than affective constructs. In terms of evaluative benefits, environmental benefits exhibit a higher positive association with attitude formation compared to financial benefits. However, this relationship switches as homeowners move through the decision process with the financial benefits of selected LCTs having a consistently higher association with adoption intention. At the same time, financial benefits also positively affect attitudes. Observing this trend across both low- and high-cost LCTs, we recommend that policymakers amplify homeowners' recognition of the individual benefits intrinsic to LCTs and enact measures that ensure these financial benefits.

Published
2023

5. Correction: Marine Protected Area Expansion and Country-Level Age-Standardized Adult Mortality

Author

Haque, Sabrina S, Bennett, Baylin J, Brewer, Thomas D, Morrissey, Karyn, Fleming, Lora E, and Gribble, Matthew O

Subjects
Veterinary Sciences, Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences, Biological Sciences, Ecology, Public Health and Health Services, Veterinary sciences
Abstract

In this article the affiliation details for Baylin J. Bennett, Thomas D. Brewer and Lora E. Flemming were incorrectly given as 'European Centre for the Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro Cornwall TR1 3HD, UK, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, 1665 University Blvd, Birmingham, AL 35233 and Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, Building 233, Innovation Campus, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia' but should have been 'Baylin J. Bennett (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, 1665 University Blvd, Birmingham, AL 35233), Thomas D. Brewer (Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, Building 233, Innovation Campus, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia) and Lora E. Flemming (European Centre for the Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro Cornwall TR1 3HD, UK). The original article has been corrected.

Published
2024

6. Enhancing Human Health and Wellbeing through Sustainably and Equitably Unlocking a Healthy Oceans Potential.

Author

Fleming, Lora, Landrigan, Philip, Ashford, Oliver, Whitman, Ella, Swift, Amy, Gerwick, William, Heymans, Johanna, Hicks, Christina, Morrissey, Karyn, White, Mathew, Alcantara-Creencia, Lota, Alexander, Karen, Astell-Burt, Thomas, Berlinck, Roberto, Cohen, Philippa, Hixson, Richard, Islam, Mohammad, Iwasaki, Arihiro, Praptiwi, Radisti, Raps, Hervé, Remy, Jan, Sowman, Georgina, Ternon, Eva, Thiele, Torsten, Thilsted, Shakuntala, Uku, Jacqueline, Ockenden, Stephanie, and Kumar, Pushpam

Subjects
biodiversity, biotechnology, blue economy, blue health, environmental justice, equity, marine protected areas (MPAs), natural products, seafood, Humans, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Conservation of Natural Resources, Health Care Sector, Human Rights, Oceans and Seas, Social Justice, Sustainable Development
Abstract

A healthy ocean is essential for human health, and yet the links between the ocean and human health are often overlooked. By providing new medicines, technologies, energy, foods, recreation, and inspiration, the ocean has the potential to enhance human health and wellbeing. However, climate change, pollution, biodiversity loss, and inequity threaten both ocean and human health. Sustainable realisation of the oceans health benefits will require overcoming these challenges through equitable partnerships, enforcement of laws and treaties, robust monitoring, and use of metrics that assess both the oceans natural capital and human wellbeing. Achieving this will require an explicit focus on human rights, equity, sustainability, and social justice. In addition to highlighting the potential unique role of the healthcare sector, we offer science-based recommendations to protect both ocean health and human health, and we highlight the unique potential of the healthcare sector tolead this effort.

Published
2024

7. Marine Protected Area Expansion and Country-Level Age-Standardized Adult Mortality.

Author

Haque, Sabrina, Bennett, Baylin, Brewer, Thomas, Morrissey, Karyn, Fleming, Lora, and Gribble, Matthew

Subjects
Conservation, Ecosystem services, Environmental health, Environmental management, Fisheries, Female, Male, Humans, Adolescent, Young Adult, Adult, Middle Aged, Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Fisheries, Biodiversity, Fishes, Ecosystem
Abstract

Many countries have adopted targets to increase marine protected areas (MPAs) to limit the degradation of water bodies. Although there is evidence that MPAs can conserve marine life and promote biodiversity, there are limited data on the human health implications of MPAs. Using panel data from 1990, 2000, and 2014, we estimated the country-level associations between MPAs (i.e., percentage of territorial waters designated as marine reserves) and age-standardized mortality (i.e., age-standardized probability of dying between 15 and 60 years from all-causes among ages 15-60/100,000 population) by sex, among 110 countries. We fit mixed-effects linear regression models of mortality as a function of current MPA coverage, gross domestic product growth, year, the prior extent of MPA, electricity coverage, governance, and country-level random effects. We observed a significant inverse association between current MPA coverage and adult mortality. For each 5-percentage-point increase in current MPA coverage, a country had 0.982 times the geometric means of female and male mortality [geometric mean ratio: 0.982 (95% CI 0·976, 0·988)] conditional on past %MPA coverage and other modeled variables. The model showed no significant residual association of mortality with past %MPA conditional on current %MPA and other modeled variables. This is one of the first studies to show a positive association between increasing marine conservation and human health. This macro-level study suggests there may be important co-benefits for human health from expanding MPAs that merit further investigation.

Published
2023

13. Integrated Ocean Management

Author

Winther, Jan-Gunnar, Dai, Minhan, Douvere, Fanny, Fernandes, Leanne, Halpin, Patrick, Hoel, Alf Håkon, Juinio-Meñez, Marie Antonette, Li, Yangfan, Morrissey, Karyn, Rist, Therese, Scarano, Fabio Rubio, Trice, Amy, Unger, Sebastian, Whitehouse, Sandra, Lubchenco, Jane, editor, and Haugan, Peter M., editor

Published
2023
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15. The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms

Author

Romanello, Marina, Napoli, Claudia di, Green, Carole, Kennard, Harry, Lampard, Pete, Scamman, Daniel, Walawender, Maria, Ali, Zakari, Ameli, Nadia, Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja, Beggs, Paul J, Belesova, Kristine, Berrang Ford, Lea, Bowen, Kathryn, Cai, Wenjia, Callaghan, Max, Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, Chambers, Jonathan, Cross, Troy J, van Daalen, Kim R, Dalin, Carole, Dasandi, Niheer, Dasgupta, Shouro, Davies, Michael, Dominguez-Salas, Paula, Dubrow, Robert, Ebi, Kristie L, Eckelman, Matthew, Ekins, Paul, Freyberg, Chris, Gasparyan, Olga, Gordon-Strachan, Georgiana, Graham, Hilary, Gunther, Samuel H, Hamilton, Ian, Hang, Yun, Hänninen, Risto, Hartinger, Stella, He, Kehan, Heidecke, Julian, Hess, Jeremy J, Hsu, Shih-Che, Jamart, Louis, Jankin, Slava, Jay, Ollie, Kelman, Ilan, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Kinney, Patrick, Kniveton, Dominic, Kouznetsov, Rostislav, Larosa, Francesca, Lee, Jason K W, Lemke, Bruno, Liu, Yang, Liu, Zhao, Lott, Melissa, Lotto Batista, Martín, Lowe, Rachel, Odhiambo Sewe, Maquins, Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime, Maslin, Mark, McAllister, Lucy, McMichael, Celia, Mi, Zhifu, Milner, James, Minor, Kelton, Minx, Jan C, Mohajeri, Nahid, Momen, Natalie C, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Morrissey, Karyn, Munzert, Simon, Murray, Kris A, Neville, Tara, Nilsson, Maria, Obradovich, Nick, O'Hare, Megan B, Oliveira, Camile, Oreszczyn, Tadj, Otto, Matthias, Owfi, Fereidoon, Pearman, Olivia, Pega, Frank, Pershing, Andrew, Rabbaniha, Mahnaz, Rickman, Jamie, Robinson, Elizabeth J Z, Rocklöv, Joacim, Salas, Renee N, Semenza, Jan C, Sherman, Jodi D, Shumake-Guillemot, Joy, Silbert, Grant, Sofiev, Mikhail, Springmann, Marco, Stowell, Jennifer D, Tabatabaei, Meisam, Taylor, Jonathon, Thompson, Ross, Tonne, Cathryn, Treskova, Marina, Trinanes, Joaquin A, Wagner, Fabian, Warnecke, Laura, Whitcombe, Hannah, Winning, Matthew, Wyns, Arthur, Yglesias-González, Marisol, Zhang, Shihui, Zhang, Ying, Zhu, Qiao, Gong, Peng, Montgomery, Hugh, and Costello, Anthony

Published
2023
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19. The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels

Author

Romanello, Marina, Di Napoli, Claudia, Drummond, Paul, Green, Carole, Kennard, Harry, Lampard, Pete, Scamman, Daniel, Arnell, Nigel, Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja, Ford, Lea Berrang, Belesova, Kristine, Bowen, Kathryn, Cai, Wenjia, Callaghan, Max, Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, Chambers, Jonathan, van Daalen, Kim R, Dalin, Carole, Dasandi, Niheer, Dasgupta, Shouro, Davies, Michael, Dominguez-Salas, Paula, Dubrow, Robert, Ebi, Kristie L, Eckelman, Matthew, Ekins, Paul, Escobar, Luis E, Georgeson, Lucien, Graham, Hilary, Gunther, Samuel H, Hamilton, Ian, Hang, Yun, Hänninen, Risto, Hartinger, Stella, He, Kehan, Hess, Jeremy J, Hsu, Shih-Che, Jankin, Slava, Jamart, Louis, Jay, Ollie, Kelman, Ilan, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Kinney, Patrick, Kjellstrom, Tord, Kniveton, Dominic, Lee, Jason K W, Lemke, Bruno, Liu, Yang, Liu, Zhao, Lott, Melissa, Batista, Martin Lotto, Lowe, Rachel, MacGuire, Frances, Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo, Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime, Maslin, Mark, McAllister, Lucy, McGushin, Alice, McMichael, Celia, Mi, Zhifu, Milner, James, Minor, Kelton, Minx, Jan C, Mohajeri, Nahid, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Morrissey, Karyn, Munzert, Simon, Murray, Kris A, Neville, Tara, Nilsson, Maria, Obradovich, Nick, O'Hare, Megan B, Oreszczyn, Tadj, Otto, Matthias, Owfi, Fereidoon, Pearman, Olivia, Rabbaniha, Mahnaz, Robinson, Elizabeth J Z, Rocklöv, Joacim, Salas, Renee N, Semenza, Jan C, Sherman, Jodi D, Shi, Liuhua, Shumake-Guillemot, Joy, Silbert, Grant, Sofiev, Mikhail, Springmann, Marco, Stowell, Jennifer, Tabatabaei, Meisam, Taylor, Jonathon, Triñanes, Joaquin, Wagner, Fabian, Wilkinson, Paul, Winning, Matthew, Yglesias-González, Marisol, Zhang, Shihui, Gong, Peng, Montgomery, Hugh, and Costello, Anthony

Published
2022
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23. A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics

Author

Spooner, Fiona, Abrams, Jesse F., Morrissey, Karyn, Shaddick, Gavin, Batty, Michael, Milton, Richard, Dennett, Adam, Lomax, Nik, Malleson, Nick, Nelissen, Natalie, Coleman, Alex, Nur, Jamil, Jin, Ying, Greig, Rory, Shenton, Charlie, and Birkin, Mark

Published
2021
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25. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

Author

Romanello, Marina, McGushin, Alice, Di Napoli, Claudia, Drummond, Paul, Hughes, Nick, Jamart, Louis, Kennard, Harry, Lampard, Pete, Solano Rodriguez, Baltazar, Arnell, Nigel, Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja, Belesova, Kristine, Cai, Wenjia, Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, Capstick, Stuart, Chambers, Jonathan, Chu, Lingzhi, Ciampi, Luisa, Dalin, Carole, Dasandi, Niheer, Dasgupta, Shouro, Davies, Michael, Dominguez-Salas, Paula, Dubrow, Robert, Ebi, Kristie L, Eckelman, Matthew, Ekins, Paul, Escobar, Luis E, Georgeson, Lucien, Grace, Delia, Graham, Hilary, Gunther, Samuel H, Hartinger, Stella, He, Kehan, Heaviside, Clare, Hess, Jeremy, Hsu, Shih-Che, Jankin, Slava, Jimenez, Marcia P, Kelman, Ilan, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Kinney, Patrick L, Kjellstrom, Tord, Kniveton, Dominic, Lee, Jason K W, Lemke, Bruno, Liu, Yang, Liu, Zhao, Lott, Melissa, Lowe, Rachel, Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime, Maslin, Mark, McAllister, Lucy, McMichael, Celia, Mi, Zhifu, Milner, James, Minor, Kelton, Mohajeri, Nahid, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Morrissey, Karyn, Munzert, Simon, Murray, Kris A, Neville, Tara, Nilsson, Maria, Obradovich, Nick, Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo, Oreszczyn, Tadj, Otto, Matthias, Owfi, Fereidoon, Pearman, Olivia, Pencheon, David, Rabbaniha, Mahnaz, Robinson, Elizabeth, Rocklöv, Joacim, Salas, Renee N, Semenza, Jan C, Sherman, Jodi, Shi, Liuhua, Springmann, Marco, Tabatabaei, Meisam, Taylor, Jonathon, Trinanes, Joaquin, Shumake-Guillemot, Joy, Vu, Bryan, Wagner, Fabian, Wilkinson, Paul, Winning, Matthew, Yglesias, Marisol, Zhang, Shihui, Gong, Peng, Montgomery, Hugh, Costello, Anthony, and Hamilton, Ian

Published
2021
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27. Telephone-Based Training Intervention for Using Digital Communication Technologies for Social Housing Residents During the COVID-19 Pandemic:Mixed Methods Feasibility and Acceptability Evaluation

Author

Walker, Tim, Buckingham, Sarah Ann, Poole, Ria, Elliott, Lewis Roland, Menneer, Tamaryn, Tu, Gengyang, Morrissey, Karyn, Walker, Tim, Buckingham, Sarah Ann, Poole, Ria, Elliott, Lewis Roland, Menneer, Tamaryn, Tu, Gengyang, and Morrissey, Karyn

Abstract

Background: In an era in which digital communication technologies play a pivotal role in everyday life, social housing residents remain highly susceptible to digital exclusion. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a telephone-based training intervention designed to empower people to confidently use digital communication technologies (ie, video calls and web-based messaging). Methods: Conducted in collaboration with a UK social housing association, the intervention was facilitated by a unitary authority’s Digital Inclusion Team during the COVID-19 pandemic. A mixed methods approach was used, encompassing quantitative and qualitative data collection on demand, reach, implementation, and potential outcomes. Demographic and qualitative data on the reasons for undertaking or not undertaking the training were collected via telephone interviews during the recruitment process. Digital competency and well-being data were collected via a self-reported survey before and after the intervention. Results: Among the 4485 residents who were offered training, 67 (1.49%) expressed interest, of whom 12 (18%) of the 67 completed the training. The findings indicate a demand for basic digital training among social housing residents. The key findings revolve around the substantial dropout rate among those who were interested in undertaking the training. Barriers were strongly influenced by socioeconomic and health circumstances, reflecting the sociodigital inequalities commonly found in this group. For the training participants, the intervention was acceptable and achieved its goals, demonstrating the potential of tailored, persistent training efforts in overcoming barriers. There were no changes in self-reported well-being or digital competency outcomes (but this was limited by the small sample size). Conclusions: Sociodigital inequalities impact the reach, implementation, and acceptability of telephone-based digital training for social housing r

Published
2024

28. A Multinomial Model for Comorbidity in England of Longstanding CVD, Diabetes, and Obesity

Author

Morrissey, Karyn, Espuny, Ferran, and Williamson, Paul

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

From a public health perspective, previous research on comorbidity tends to have focused on identifying the most prevalent groupings of illnesses that demonstrate comorbidity, particularly among the elderly population, already in receipt of care. In contrast, little attention has been paid to possible socio-economic factors associated with increased rates of comorbidity or to the possibility of wider unrevealed need. Given the known relationship between CVD, diabetes and obesity and the strong socio-economic gradients in risk factors for each of the three diseases as single morbidities, this paper uses the Health Survey for England to examine the demographic and socio-economic determinants of each of the seven disease combinations in the English population. Using a multinomial logistic model, this research finds that gender is a significant predictor for all seven disease combinations. However, gender was not as influential as individual age or socio-economic profile. With regard to ethnicity, the black population presents a high obesity, diabetes and diabetes-related comorbidity risk, whilst the Asian population presents a high risk for diabetes and diabetes-related comorbidity but a low risk for obesity and comorbidity. Across the seven disease combinations, risk was lowest for those individuals with a high income (4 out of 7), in-work (4 out of 7), home owning (3 out of 7) and degree educated (3 out of 7). Finally, smokers have a lower risk rate of obesity (and related) than ex-smokers relative to individuals that never smoked (in all cases controlling for all other factors). The important influence of socioeconomic factors has implications for the spatial demand for services and the policy solutions adopted to tackle the increasing prevalence of comorbidity., Comment: Working Paper

Published
2014

38. Understanding the links between human health, ecosystem health, and food systems in Small Island Developing States using stakeholder-informed causal loop diagrams

Author

Guariguata, Leonor, primary, Hickey, Gordon M., additional, Murphy, Madhuvanti M., additional, Guell, Cornelia, additional, Iese, Viliamu, additional, Morrissey, Karyn, additional, Duvivier, Predner, additional, Herberg, Stina, additional, Kiran, Sashi, additional, and Unwin, Nigel, additional

Published
2023
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42. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health

Author

Watts, Nick, Amann, Markus, Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja, Belesova, Kristine, Bouley, Timothy, Boykoff, Maxwell, Byass, Peter, Cai, Wenjia, Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, Chambers, Jonathan, Cox, Peter M, Daly, Meaghan, Dasandi, Niheer, Davies, Michael, Depledge, Michael, Depoux, Anneliese, Dominguez-Salas, Paula, Drummond, Paul, Ekins, Paul, Flahault, Antoine, Frumkin, Howard, Georgeson, Lucien, Ghanei, Mostafa, Grace, Delia, Graham, Hilary, Grojsman, Rébecca, Haines, Andy, Hamilton, Ian, Hartinger, Stella, Johnson, Anne, Kelman, Ilan, Kiesewetter, Gregor, Kniveton, Dominic, Liang, Lu, Lott, Melissa, Lowe, Robert, Mace, Georgina, Odhiambo Sewe, Maquins, Maslin, Mark, Mikhaylov, Slava, Milner, James, Latifi, Ali Mohammad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Morrissey, Karyn, Murray, Kris, Neville, Tara, Nilsson, Maria, Oreszczyn, Tadj, Owfi, Fereidoon, Pencheon, David, Pye, Steve, Rabbaniha, Mahnaz, Robinson, Elizabeth, Rocklöv, Joacim, Schütte, Stefanie, Shumake-Guillemot, Joy, Steinbach, Rebecca, Tabatabaei, Meisam, Wheeler, Nicola, Wilkinson, Paul, Gong, Peng, Montgomery, Hugh, and Costello, Anthony

Published
2018
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44. Trends in food supply, diet, and the risk of non-communicable diseases in three Small Island Developing States: implications for policy and research

Author

Halliday, Cassandra, primary, Morrissey, Karyn, additional, Saint Ville, Arlette, additional, Guell, Cornelia, additional, Augustus, Eden, additional, Guariguata, Leonor, additional, Iese, Viliamu, additional, Hickey, Gordon, additional, Murphy, Madhuvanti M., additional, Haynes, Emily, additional, Tescar, Roberts Pierre, additional, Duvivier, Predner, additional, and Unwin, Nigel, additional

Published
2023
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45. The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change

Author

Watts, Nick, Adger, W Neil, Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja, Bai, Yuqi, Byass, Peter, Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid, Colbourn, Tim, Cox, Peter, Davies, Michael, Depledge, Michael, Depoux, Anneliese, Dominguez-Salas, Paula, Drummond, Paul, Ekins, Paul, Flahault, Antoine, Grace, Delia, Graham, Hilary, Haines, Andy, Hamilton, Ian, Johnson, Anne, Kelman, Ilan, Kovats, Sari, Liang, Lu, Lott, Melissa, Lowe, Robert, Luo, Yong, Mace, Georgina, Maslin, Mark, Morrissey, Karyn, Murray, Kris, Neville, Tara, Nilsson, Maria, Oreszczyn, Tadj, Parthemore, Christine, Pencheon, David, Robinson, Elizabeth, Schütte, Stefanie, Shumake-Guillemot, Joy, Vineis, Paolo, Wilkinson, Paul, Wheeler, Nicola, Xu, Bing, Yang, Jun, Yin, Yongyuan, Yu, Chaoqing, Gong, Peng, Montgomery, Hugh, and Costello, Anthony

Published
2017
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48. The double burden of COVID-19 and a major volcanic eruption on local food production and food security in a Small Island Developing State.

Author

Augustus, Eden, Murphy, Madhuvanti M., Guell, Cornelia, Morrissey, Karyn, Ramdath, Dan, Woodward, Mark, Anderson, Simon G., and Unwin, Nigel

Subjects
FOOD security, VOLCANIC eruptions, COVID-19 pandemic, FOOD production, COVID-19, CONVENIENCE sampling (Statistics), FOOD preferences
Abstract

Introduction: Small Island Developing States have disproportionately high food insecurity rates, related to complex challenges and vulnerabilities. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted that within these settings, crises often overlap. We aimed to assess the impact of the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic and volcanic eruption on food production and security in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG). Methods: An interpretive mixed-methods study was conducted among a convenience sample of consenting adults =18 years from 100 households in SVG through a cross-sectional survey and participant interviews (10 households) between September 2021 and March 2022. Food insecurity prevalence over the past year was assessed using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES; Rasch modeling) and impacts to livelihoods from the pandemic and volcanic eruption was assessed using an adapted Caribbean COVID-19 Food Security and Livelihoods Impact Survey (Caribbean COVID-19 FS&L Survey). Data were analyzed using logistic regression. Results: During the pandemic, 59% of the participants reported decreased income, 63% had no access to markets, 81% had no access to food aid; 34% of the participants had a change in food sources, and 81% reported that food production was negatively impacted by the volcanic eruptions, of which 68% reported decreased food production. The interviews highlighted that access to markets were restricted by fear of leaving home and contracting the COVID-19 virus, and participants who received food aid stated that the number of items were not sufficient for larger families. Almost half of the participants were severely food insecure [48% (95% C.I. 31.2,57.8)]; almost two thirds were moderately to severely food insecure [64% (95% C.I. 50.0, 74.2)]; mean FIES score 5.31 (95% C.I. 5.0,5.6). After adjusting for gender, age, education, and household size, moderate to severe food insecurity was associated with no access to food aid during the pandemic and post-eruptions (odds ratio 3.7; 95% confidence interval 1.5, 9.1; p = 0.004). Conclusion: Food insecurity rates were high during the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated by volcanic eruptions and insufficient access to food aid. Our results suggest the need for the development of strategies and interventions aimed at increasing the resilience of food systems to mitigate the effects of future disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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