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The large combined field of view of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instruments onboard the GOES weather satellites makes them useful for studying the population of other atmospheric phenomena, such as bolides. Being a lightning mapper, GLM has many detection biases when applied to non-lightning and these systematics must be studied and properly accounted for before precise measurements of bolide flux can be ascertained. We developed a Bayesian Poisson regression model which simultaneously estimates instrumental biases and our statistic of principal interest: the latitudinal variation of bolide flux. We find that the estimated bias due to the angle of incident light upon the instrument corresponds roughly with the known sensitivity of the GLM instruments. We compare our latitudinal flux variation estimates to existing theoretical models and find our estimates consistent with GLM being strongly biased towards high-velocity bolides., Comment: To be published in Icarus vol. 408, 2024

The Ramsey number $R(k)$ is the minimum $n \in \mathbb{N}$ such that every red-blue colouring of the edges of the complete graph $K_n$ on $n$ vertices contains a monochromatic copy of $K_k$. We prove that \[ R(k) \leqslant (4 - \varepsilon)^k \] for some constant $\varepsilon > 0$. This is the first exponential improvement over the upper bound of Erd\H{o}s and Szekeres, proved in 1935., Comment: 57 pages, 8 figures

The set-colouring Ramsey number $R_{r,s}(k)$ is defined to be the minimum $n$ such that if each edge of the complete graph $K_n$ is assigned a set of $s$ colours from $\{1,\ldots,r\}$, then one of the colours contains a monochromatic clique of size $k$. The case $s = 1$ is the usual $r$-colour Ramsey number, and the case $s = r - 1$ was studied by Erd\H{o}s, Hajnal and Rado in 1965, and by Erd\H{o}s and Szemer\'edi in 1972. The first significant results for general $s$ were obtained only recently, by Conlon, Fox, He, Mubayi, Suk and Verstra\"ete, who showed that $R_{r,s}(k) = 2^{\Theta(kr)}$ if $s/r$ is bounded away from $0$ and $1$. In the range $s = r - o(r)$, however, their upper and lower bounds diverge significantly. In this note we introduce a new (random) colouring, and use it to determine $R_{r,s}(k)$ up to polylogarithmic factors in the exponent for essentially all $r$, $s$ and $k$., Comment: 12 pages, submitted version, added Conjecture 5.1

A covering system is a finite collection of arithmetic progressions whose union is the set of integers. The study of these objects was initiated by Erd\H{o}s in 1950, and over the following decades he asked many questions about them. Most famously, he asked whether there exist covering systems with distinct moduli whose minimum modulus is arbitrarily large. This problem was resolved in 2015 by Hough, who showed that in any such system the minimum modulus is at most $10^{16}$. The purpose of this note is to give a gentle exposition of a simpler and stronger variant of Hough's method, which was recently used to answer several other questions about covering systems. We hope that this technique, which we call the distortion method, will have many further applications in other combinatorial settings., Comment: 8 pages, expository note

CheckSync provides applications with high availability via runtime-integrated checkpointing. This allows CheckSync to take checkpoints of a process running in a memory-managed language (Go, for now), which can be resumed on another machine after a failure. CheckSync uses the runtime to checkpoint only the process' live memory, doing without requiring significant changes to applications. CheckSync maintains the ease of use provided by virtual machines for the applications it supports without requiring that an entire virtual machine image be snapshotted. Because CheckSync captures only the memory used by an application, it produces checkpoints that are smaller (by an order of magnitude) than virtual machine snapshots if the memory footprint of the application is relatively small compared to the state of the rest of the operating system. Additionally, when running go-cache, a popular in-memory key/value store, CheckSync reduces throughput by only 12% compared to the 78% throughput loss when using go-cache's snapshot functionality, the 45% loss when using CRIU, and the 68% loss when using virtual machine live migration., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures

In 1957, Hadwiger conjectured that every convex body in $\mathbb{R}^d$ can be covered by $2^d$ translates of its interior. For over 60 years, the best known bound was of the form $O(4^d \sqrt{d} \log d)$, but this was recently improved by a factor of $e^{\Omega(\sqrt{d})}$ by Huang, Slomka, Tkocz and Vritsiou. In this note we take another step towards Hadwiger's conjecture by deducing an almost-exponential improvement from the recent breakthrough work of Chen, Klartag and Lehec on Bourgain's slicing problem. More precisely, we prove that, for any convex body $K \subset \mathbb{R}^d$, $$\exp\bigg( - \Omega\bigg( \frac{d}{(\log d)^8} \bigg) \bigg) \cdot 4^d$$ translates of $\text{int}(K)$ suffice to cover $K$. We also show that a positive answer to Bourgain's slicing problem would imply an exponential improvement for Hadwiger's conjecture., Comment: 10 pages

In many interacting particle systems, relaxation to equilibrium is thought to occur via the growth of 'droplets', and it is a question of fundamental importance to determine the critical length at which such droplets appear. In this paper we construct a mechanism for the growth of droplets in an arbitrary finite-range monotone cellular automaton on a $d$-dimensional lattice. Our main application is an upper bound on the critical probability for percolation that is sharp up to a constant factor in the exponent. Our method also provides several crucial tools that we expect to have applications to other interacting particle systems, such as kinetically constrained spin models on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. This is one of three papers that together confirm the Universality Conjecture of Bollob\'as, Duminil-Copin, Morris and Smith., Comment: 159 pages, 4 figures, numerous minor improvements based on a very helpful referee report

In this paper we study monotone cellular automata in $d$ dimensions. We develop a general method for bounding the growth of the infected set when the initial configuration is chosen randomly, and then use this method to prove a lower bound on the critical probability for percolation that is sharp up to a constant factor in the exponent for every 'critical' model. This is one of three papers that together confirm the Universality Conjecture of Bollob\'as, Duminil-Copin, Morris and Smith., Comment: 65 pages, 2 figures, minor update, expanded outline of the proof

We study monotone cellular automata (also known as $\mathcal{U}$-bootstrap percolation) in $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with random initial configurations. Confirming a conjecture of Balister, Bollob\'as, Przykucki and Smith, who proved the corresponding result in two dimensions, we show that the critical probability is non-zero for all subcritical models., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures, added Theorem 7.1

Ultra-short-period (USP) exoplanets have orbital periods shorter than one day. Precise masses and radii of USPs could provide constraints on their unknown formation and evolution processes. We report the detection and characterization of the USP planet GJ 367b using high precision photometry and radial velocity observations. GJ 367b orbits a bright (V-band magnitude = 10.2), nearby, red (M-type) dwarf star every 7.7 hours. GJ 367b has a radius of $0.718 \pm 0.054$ Earth-radii, a mass of $0.546 \pm 0.078$ Earth-masses, making it a sub-Earth. The corresponding bulk density is $8.106 \pm 2.165$ g cm$^-3$, close to that of iron. An interior structure model predicts the planet has an iron core radius fraction of $86 \pm 5\%$, similar to Mercury's interior., Comment: Note: "This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science , (2021-12-03), doi: 10.1126/science.aay3253"

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instrument onboard the GOES 16 and 17 satellites has been shown to be capable of detecting bolides (bright meteors) in Earth's atmosphere. Due to its large, continuous field of view and immediate public data availability, GLM provides a unique opportunity to detect a large variety of bolides, including those in the 0.1 to 3 m diameter range and complements current ground-based bolide detection systems, which are typically sensitive to smaller events. We present a machine learning-based bolide detection and light curve generation pipeline being developed at NASA Ames Research Center as part of NASA's Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP). The ultimate goal is to generate a large catalog of calibrated bolide lightcurves to provide an unprecedented data set which will be used to inform meteor entry models on how incoming bodies interact with the Earth's atmosphere and to infer the pre-entry properties of the impacting bodies. The data set will also be useful for other asteroidal studies. This paper reports on the progress of the first part of this ultimate goal, namely, the automated bolide detection pipeline. Development of the training set, ML model training and iterative improvements in detection performance are presented. The pipeline runs in an automated fashion and bolide lightcurves along with other measured properties are promptly published on a NASA hosted publicly accessible website, https://neo-bolide.ndc.nasa.gov., Comment: Accepted to Icarus, in press

We present 2,241 exoplanet candidates identified with data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) during its two-year prime mission. We list these candidates in the TESS Objects of Interest (TOI) Catalog, which includes both new planet candidates found by TESS and previously-known planets recovered by TESS observations. We describe the process used to identify TOIs and investigate the characteristics of the new planet candidates, and discuss some notable TESS planet discoveries. The TOI Catalog includes an unprecedented number of small planet candidates around nearby bright stars, which are well-suited for detailed follow-up observations. The TESS data products for the Prime Mission (Sectors 1-26), including the TOI Catalog, light curves, full-frame images, and target pixel files, are publicly available on the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes., Comment: 39 pages, 16 figures. The Prime Mission TOI Catalog is included in the ancillary data as a CSV. For the most up-to-date catalog, refer to https://tess.mit.edu/toi-releases/

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $\eta_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $\eta_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun., Comment: To appear in The Astronomical Journal

We describe the development of, and early experiences with, comprehensive Digital Phenotyping platform: Health Outcomes through Positive Engagement and Self-Empowerment (HOPES). HOPES is based on the open-source Beiwe platform but adds a much wider range of data collection, including the integration of wearable data sources and further sensor collection from the smartphone. Requirements were in part derived from a concurrent clinical trial for schizophrenia. This trial required development of significant capabilities in HOPES in security, privacy, ease-of-use and scalability, based on a careful combination of public cloud and on-premises operation. We describe new data pipelines to clean, process, present and analyze data. This includes a set of dashboards customized to the needs of the research study operations and for clinical care. A test use of HOPES is described by analyzing the digital behaviors of 20 participants during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic., Comment: This document includes both the main paper and its supplementary material

We report the discovery and confirmation of two new hot Jupiters discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS): TOI 564 b and TOI 905 b. The transits of these two planets were initially observed by TESS with orbital periods of 1.651 d and 3.739 d, respectively. We conducted follow-up observations of each system from the ground, including photometry in multiple filters, speckle interferometry, and radial velocity measurements. For TOI 564 b, our global fitting revealed a classical hot Jupiter with a mass of $1.463^{+0.10}_{-0.096}\ M_J$ and a radius of $1.02^{+0.71}_{-0.29}\ R_J$. TOI 905 b is a classical hot Jupiter as well, with a mass of $0.667^{+0.042}_{-0.041}\ M_J$ and radius of $1.171^{+0.053}_{-0.051}\ R_J$. Both planets orbit Sun-like, moderately bright, mid-G dwarf stars with V ~ 11. While TOI 905 b fully transits its star, we found that TOI 564 b has a very high transit impact parameter of $0.994^{+0.083}_{-0.049}$, making it one of only ~20 known systems to exhibit a grazing transit and one of the brightest host stars among them. TOI 564 b is therefore one of the most attractive systems to search for additional non-transiting, smaller planets by exploiting the sensitivity of grazing transits to small changes in inclination and transit duration over the time scale of several years., Comment: 21 pages and 10 figures. Submitted to AJ

We analyze the phase curve of the short-period transiting hot Jupiter system WASP-19, which was observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ($TESS$) in Sector 9. WASP-19 is one of only five transiting exoplanet systems with full-orbit phase curve measurements at both optical and infrared wavelengths. We measure a secondary eclipse depth of $470^{+130}_{-110}$ ppm and detect a strong atmospheric brightness modulation signal with a semi-amplitude of $319\pm51$ ppm. No significant offset is detected between the substellar point and the region of maximum brightness on the dayside. There is also no significant nightside flux detected, which is in agreement with the nightside effective blackbody temperature of $1090^{+190}_{-250}$ derived from the published $Spitzer$ phase curves for this planet. Placing the eclipse depth measured in the $TESS$ bandpass alongside the large body of previous values from the literature, we carry out the first atmospheric retrievals of WASP-19b's secondary eclipse spectrum using the SCARLET code. The retrieval analysis indicates that WASP-19b has a dayside atmosphere consistent with an isotherm at $T=2240\pm40$ K and a visible geometric albedo of $0.16\pm0.04$, indicating significant contribution from reflected starlight in the $TESS$ bandpass and moderately efficient day-night heat transport., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

MASCARA-4 b is a hot Jupiter in a highly-misaligned orbit around a rapidly-rotating A3V star that was observed for 54 days by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (\tess). We perform two analyses of MASCARA-4 b using a stellar gravity-darkened model. First, we measure MASCARA-4 b's misaligned orbital configuration by modeling its \tess~photometric light curve. We take advantage of the asymmetry in MASCARA-4 b's transit due to its host star's gravity-darkened surface to measure MASCARA-4 b's true spin-orbit angle to be $104^{\circ+7^\circ}_{-13^\circ}$. We also detect a $\sim4\sigma$ secondary eclipse at $0.491\pm0.007$ orbital phase, proving that the orbit is slightly eccentric. Second, we model MASCARA-4 b's insolation including gravity-darkening and find that the planet's received XUV flux varies by $4$\% throughout its orbit. MASCARA-4 b's short-period, polar orbit suggests that the planet likely underwent dramatic orbital evolution to end up in its present-day configuration and that it receives a varying stellar irradiance that perpetually forces the planet out of thermal equilibrium. These findings make MASCARA-4 b an excellent target for follow-up characterization to better understand orbital evolution and current-day of planets around high-mass stars., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

The Neptune desert is a feature seen in the radius-mass-period plane, whereby a notable dearth of short period, Neptune-like planets is found. Here we report the {\it TESS} discovery of a new short-period planet in the Neptune desert, orbiting the G-type dwarf TYC\,8003-1117-1 (TOI-132). {\it TESS} photometry shows transit-like dips at the level of $\sim$1400 ppm occurring every $\sim$2.11 days. High-precision radial velocity follow-up with HARPS confirmed the planetary nature of the transit signal and provided a semi-amplitude radial velocity variation of $\sim$11.5 m s$^{-1}$, which, when combined with the stellar mass of $0.97\pm0.06$ $M_{\odot}$, provides a planetary mass of 22.83$^{+1.81}_{-1.80}$ $M_{\oplus}$. Modeling the {\it TESS} high-quality light curve returns a planet radius of 3.43$^{+0.13}_{-0.14}$ $R_{\oplus}$, and therefore the planet bulk density is found to be 3.11$^{+0.44}_{-0.450}$ g cm$^{-3}$. Planet structure models suggest that the bulk of the planet mass is in the form of a rocky core, with an atmospheric mass fraction of 4.3$^{+1.2}_{-2.3}$\%. TOI-132 b is a {\it TESS} Level 1 Science Requirement candidate, and therefore priority follow-up will allow the search for additional planets in the system, whilst helping to constrain low-mass planet formation and evolution models, particularly valuable for better understanding the Neptune desert., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome. Missing labels, Typos fixed

In this paper we determine the number and typical structure of sets of integers with bounded doubling. In particular, improving recent results of Green and Morris, and of Mazur, we show that the following holds for every fixed $\lambda > 2$ and every $k \geqslant (\log n)^4$: if $\omega \to \infty$ as $n \to \infty$ (arbitrarily slowly), then almost all sets $A \subset [n]$ with $|A| = k$ and $|A + A| \leqslant \lambda k$ are contained in an arithmetic progression of length $\lambda k/2 + \omega$., Comment: 41 pages

We report the period, eccentricity, and mass determination for the TESS single-transit event candidate TOI-222, which displayed a single 3000 ppm transit in the TESS two-minute cadence data from Sector 2. We determine the orbital period via radial velocity measurements (P=33.9,days), which allowed for ground-based photometric detection of two subsequent transits. Our data show that the companion to TOI-222 is a low mass star, with a radius of $0.18_{-0.10}^{+0.39}$ Rsun and a mass of $0.23\pm0.01$ Msun. This discovery showcases the ability to efficiently discover long-period systems from TESS single transit events using a combination of radial velocity monitoring coupled with high precision ground-based photometry., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS