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Several letters to the editor and a reply are presented in response to the article "Aspirin in the prevention of cancer," by Peter Rothwell and colleagues that was published in the January 1, 2011 issue.

Insulin signaling depends on tyrosine phosphorylation of insulin receptor substrates (IRSs) to mediate downstream effects; however, elevated serine phosphorylation of IRS impairs insulin signaling. Here, we investigated IRS protein expression patterns in dorsal root ganglia (DRG) of mice and whether their signaling was affected by diabetes. Both IRS1 and IRS2 are expressed in DRG; however, IRS2 appears to be the prevalent isoform and is expressed by many DRG neuronal subtypes. Phosphorylation of Ser(731)IRS2 was significantly elevated in DRG neurons from type 1 and type 2 diabetic mice. Additionally, Akt activation and neurite outgrowth in response to insulin were significantly decreased in DRG cultures from diabetic ob/ob mice. These results suggest that DRG neurons express IRS proteins that are altered by diabetes similar to other peripheral tissues, and insulin signaling downstream of the insulin receptormay be impaired in sensory neurons and contribute to the pathogenesis of diabetic neuropathy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Antenatal screening for Down's syndrome relies on the use of multiple markers in combination. Markers that are highly correlated can cause statistical instability. We used the maximum variance inflation factor (VIFmax) to determine whether a screening test using multiple markers was robust to imprecision in the estimation of the marker distribution parameters. Methods The VIFmax for a specified screening test was calculated from the correlations between markers in Down's syndrome pregnancies for six tests: integrated and serum integrated tests without repeat measurements, both tests with repeat measurements across trimesters analysed in the standard way, and both tests with repeat measurements analysed as cross-trimester (CT) marker ratios. The screening performance of each test using published parameter values, in terms of the false-negative rates for a 3% false-positive rate (FN3), were calculated for simulated populations with medians 0.2 standard deviations (SD) higher or lower than the published values (to reflect imprecision in parameter estimation) for pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and unconjugated oestriol in affected pregnancies. For each test, the VIFmax value was compared with the coefficient of variation of the FN3 (FN3 CV). An independent set of 27 Down's syndrome pregnancies was used to determine how many had meaningless low risks (,1 in 10,000) with each test. Results Tests with VIFmax values greater than 5 had FN3CV values over 50%, but those with VIFmax values less than 5 had FN3 CV values less than 21%. The numbers of Down's syndrome pregnancies with meaningless low risk estimates in the independent set were 18 (64%) in tests with VIFmax values ≥5 and none for those with values >5. Conclusion VIFmax values of 5 or more suggest instability. The tests using CT marker ratios were stable (VIFmax < 3), but the tests using repeat measurements in the standard manner were not (VIFmax > 5). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: It is widely thought that correlations between screening markers will tend to degrade screening performance. We performed a computer simulation study to investigate the quantitative effect of correlations between two markers on screening performance, using prenatal screening for Down's syndrome as an example, although the results apply generally. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate values of two hypothetical markers, A and B, in 1000 affected and 1000 unaffected pregnancies. The means, standard deviations and correlations of A and B were varied in five different examples. Results: If markers A and B are, on average, higher in affected than unaffected pregnancies and each marker, individually, has the same detection rate for a given false-positive rate (i.e. the same screening performance), then the screening performance of A and B together tends to decrease as A and B become more positively correlated with each other (within affected or unaffected categories) and tends to increase as A and B become more negatively correlated. If A is, on average, higher in affected pregnancies and B is, on average, lower in affected pregnancies (but again each marker has the same screening performance), the opposite pattern is observed; screening performance increases as A and B become more positively correlated and screening performance decreases as they become more negatively correlated. If A and B have unequal screening performances, modest correlations between A and B have little effect on the screening performance of A and B together, but when the correlations are strong whether positive or negative (with r values greater than about 0.45 or less than -0.45) screening performance progressively increases. Conclusion: Correlations between screening markers considered separately in affected and unaffected pregnancies can either decrease or increase screening performance. In practice, these effects are usually modest, because most screening markers are not highly correlated with each other and the effects become important only with strong correlations, whether positive or negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine the prevalence of pregnancies with a neural tube defect (NTD) in England and Wales between 1964 and 2004 and to estimate the relative impact of antenatal screening and a change in the incidence of these defects on the prevalence of births with NTDs. Settings: Use of data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on terminations of pregnancies with an NTD and births with an NTD from 1964 to 2004. Methods: Estimates were made of the total number of terminations of pregnancies and births with an NTD by taking account of the under-reporting of these terminations and births using a previously described method. In 1995 ONS started to report the number of terminations with an NTD rather than the total numbers of terminations with a central nervous system (CNS) malformation that had previously been used to estimate the number of NTD terminations. Adjustment was made for this and new estimates of the total number of NTD pregnancies were produced to 2004. Results: There were an estimated 969 pregnancies with NTDs (168 (17%) births and 801(83%) terminations) in England and Wales in 2004. An estimated 44% of NTD terminations and 32% of births were not reported as such. The birth prevalence per 1000 decreased fallen 93% from 3.6 in 1964 to 0.3 in 2004, 59% due to an underlying decrease in the prevalence of NTDs and 34% due to screening diagnosis and subsequent termination of affected pregnancies. Conclusion: The prevalence of NTD pregnancies decreased by around two per 1000 from 1964 to 1990 and thereafter remained fairly constant. The prevalence of NTD pregnancies is substantially underestimated if it is based only on reported NTD births (by 88%) and also if it is based on reported NTD births and terminations (by 52%), because most NTD pregnancies in England and Wales are terminated following antenatal screening and most of these terminations are not reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-2), and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) were measured in frozen serum samples from 1051 men with cancer and 3142 controls in a nested case-control study from the British United Provident Association (BUPA) study cohort and associations with 14 cancers were examined, including prostate, colorectal, and lung. A meta-analysis of studies on these three cancer sites was also conducted. In the meta-analysis the odds ratio between the highest quartile IGF-1 group and the lowest quartile group was 1.31 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.67) for prostate, 1.37 (1.05-1.78) for colorectal and 1.02 (0.80-1.31) for lung cancer, and for IGF-2 it was 0.72 (0.36-1.44) for prostate and 1.95 (1.26-3.00) for colorectal cancer. Results from the BUPA study were consistent with the estimates from the other studies. There were no statistically significant associations with IGFBP-3 and any of the cancer sites considered. Our results suggest that IGF-1, IGF-2, and IGFBP-3 measurements have no value in cancer screening, although IGF-1 and IGF-2 may be of aetiological significance in relation to colorectal and prostate cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The screening performance of tests involving multiple markers is usually presented visually as two Gaussian relative frequency distributions of risk, one curve relating to affected and the other to unaffected individuals. If the distribution of the underlying screening markers is approximately Gaussian, risk estimates based on the same markers will usually also be approximately Gaussian. However, this approximation sometimes fails. Here we examine the circumstances when this occurs. Setting: A theoretical statistical analysis. Methods: Hypothetical log Gaussian relative distributions of affected and unaffected individuals were generated for three antenatal screening markers for Down's syndrome. Log likelihood ratios were calculated for each marker value and plots of the relative frequency distributions were compared with plots of Gaussian distributions based on the means and standard deviations of these log likelihood ratios. Results: When the standard deviations of the distributions of a perfectly Gaussian screening marker are similar in affected and unaffected individuals, the distributions of risk estimates are also approximately Gaussian. If the standard deviations differ materially, incorrectly assuming that the distributions of the risk estimates are Gaussian creates a graphical anomaly in which the distributions of risk in affected and unaffected individuals plotted on a continuous risk scale intersect in two places. This is theoretically impossible. Plotting the risk distributions empirically reveals that all individuals have an estimated risk above a specified value. For individuals with more extreme marker values, the risk estimates reverse and increase instead of continuing to decrease. Conclusion: It is useful to check whether a Gaussian approximation for the distribution of risk estimates based on a screening marker is valid. If the value of the marker level at which risk reversal occurs lies within the set truncation limits, these may need to be reset, and a Gaussian model may be inappropriate to illustrate the risk distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To quantify the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and the incidence of ischaemic heart disease.Design: A meta-analysis of cohort studies of the relationship between ischaemic heart disease and markers of fruit and vegetable consumption, namely dietary intake of fruit, vegetables, carotenoids, vitamin C, fruit fibre and vegetable fibre, and serum concentration of carotenoids and vitamin C, adjusted for other risk factors.Main Outcome Measures: Risk of ischaemic heart disease at the 90th centile of consumption relative to that at the 10th, equivalent to about a four-fold difference in fruit consumption and a doubling of vegetable consumption.Results: The association with ischaemic heart disease was of similar magnitude for all six dietary markers of fruit and vegetable consumption. The median of the six estimates was that risk was 15% (range 12-19%) lower at the 90th centile of consumption than at the 10th. The estimates were generally adjusted for the possible confounding effect of other heart disease risk factors. The serum studies of vitamin C were consistent with this; those of carotenoids suggested a larger difference (43%) but were not adjusted for the important confounding effect of smoking. The substances in fruit and vegetables responsible for the protective effect on heart disease are uncertain but the effect is commensurate with the estimated protective effects of the potassium and folate in fruit and vegetables. Beta-carotene or vitamin E are not likely to be important because randomised trials of these vitamins in large doses have shown no reduction in heart disease mortality.Conclusions: The risk of ischaemic heart disease is about 15% lower at the 90th than the 1Oth centile of fruit and vegetable consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two equations are given to estimate the risk of a woman having a Down's syndrome pregnancy according to maternal age: one for use in estimating antenatal screening performance and the other for use in estimating an individual woman's risk of having an affected pregnancy. Because Down's syndrome pregnancies have an increased tendency to result in a spontaneous fetal loss, the estimation of a woman's risk of having an affected pregnancy will be dependent on gestational age. The best estimates of the prevalence of Down's syndrome are obtained from information relating to births and can reliably be adjusted to prevalence in early second trimester. The most reliable estimates of risk of a Down's syndrome pregnancy using all the currently used markers apply to early in the second trimester. These risks cannot accurately be adjusted to apply to term, because the first trimester markers have not in general been studied in pregnancies that continue to term. Therefore the early second trimester of pregnancy is the gestational age at which all screening performances should be given for the different antenatal screening programmes for Down's syndrome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The proportion of Down's syndrome pregnancies detected prenatally in England and Wales is lower in younger mothers than in older mothers. This paper examines the reasons for this apparent age inequality. Methods: We used data from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR) to examine the time trend of the proportion of Down's syndrome pregnancies diagnosed prenatally according to maternal age over the years 1989–2004 in England and Wales. Results: A lower proportion of younger mothers had their Down's syndrome pregnancy detected prenatally than older mothers; however, this gap has been closing over time. For example, for mothers under 25 years of age only 13% of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected prenatally from 1989 to 1992, with this figure rising to 34% in 2001–2004, compared with proportions of 74% in both periods for mothers over 44 years of age. A lower uptake of screening among younger women could not explain these differences. The differences in detection rates of the screening methods according to maternal age, particularly of the older screening tests, could account for these differences. Conclusions: The closing gap between the proportions of younger and older women having their affected pregnancy prenatally diagnosed is a confirmation of the improvement of screening methods over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented on headache associated with calcium channel blockers, published in Volume 63, February 2007 issue.

Purpose: To investigate the associations between levels of serum calcium and phosphate and subsequent death from aortic stenosis, and the implications for prevention.Methods: A prospective (nested case-control) analysis of serum calcium and phosphate levels was performed in stored samples from the British United Provident Association prospective study of 21 520 men aged 35-64, followed for up to 32 years. There were 49 men without baseline valvular heart disease who subsequently died of aortic stenosis. Each was matched, for age, duration of sample storage and number of freeze-thaw cycles, with four unaffected control subjects. Odds ratios for death from aortic stenosis were estimated by logistic regression.Results: Mean serum calcium concentration was higher in men who died of aortic stenosis than in those who did not (2.44 vs. 2.39 mmol L-1 ; P = 0.01). The risk of death from aortic stenosis in the highest calcium tertile was 2.87-fold higher than in the lowest tertile (95% confidence interval 1.22-6.76). There was a continuous dose-response relationship; risk of death from aortic stenosis increased by 51% (11-105%) per 0.1 mmol L-1 increase in serum calcium, equivalent to a 34% (10-52%) lower risk per 0.1 mmol L-1 decrease. Serum phosphate was not significantly higher in men who died of aortic stenosis than in those who did not (1.0 vs. 0.99 mmol L-1 ; P = 0.76).Conclusions: The association between serum calcium and subsequent mortality from aortic stenosis is of potential preventive significance. If confirmed quantitatively in other similar cohort studies, the results suggest that a very small reduction in serum calcium (about 5%) could translate into a large (about one-third) reduction in aortic stenosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Patients with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome-hypermobility type ( EDS- HT) have increased prevalence of gastrointestinal ( GI) symptoms, particularly reflux and dyspepsia. EDS- HT is associated with dysautonomia, psychopathology, and chronic pain which can be associated with GI symptoms. The association between GI symptoms and EDS- HT in a 'non-patient' population and the effect of the above-mentioned factors has never been studied. Methods In a cross sectional study, a hypermobility questionnaire was used to screen university students; further clinical examination established the diagnosis of EDS- HT. Validated questionnaires assessed for GI, somatic, pain and autonomic symptoms, psychopathology and quality of life ( QOL). These were compared in students with and without EDS- HT; logistic regression analysis examined associations between EDS- HT, GI symptoms and other variables. Key Results Of 1998 students screened, 162 were included: 74 EDS- HT (21.0 years, 53% female) vs 88 Non- EDS- HT (21.5 years, 65% female). Compared to non- EDS- HT students, EDS- HT students were more likely to have multiple GI symptoms (41.9% vs 27.3% P=.05), particularly postprandial fullness (34.4% vs 15.9%, P=.01) and early satiety (32% vs 17%, P=.03), greater autonomic ( P<.001) and somatic symptoms ( P=.04) but not psychopathology ( P>.8). The association between EDS- HT and postprandial symptoms was dependent on autonomic factors but independent of pain and psychopathology. Pain-related QOL scores were reduced in the EDS- HT group (80 vs 90, P=.03). Conclusions and Inferences The previously described association between EDS- HT, dyspepsia, pain and autonomic symptoms in patients is also present in non-patient groups. Future studies are necessary to explore the etiological role of connective tissue in GI and extra intestinal symptoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To illustrate regional changes that occurred in screening for Down's syndrome (trisomy 21) in England and Wales from 1989 to 2008. Methods The National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register has collected data on all ante- and postnatal diagnoses of Down's syndrome in England and Wales since 1989 (n = 27,954). The percentages of (i) diagnoses made antenatally, (ii) antenatal diagnoses that had nuchal translucency (NT) measured, and (iii) antenatal diagnoses in mothers aged 37 and over with advanced maternal age as the sole recorded indication for diagnosis are presented according to where the mother lived Government Office Region), year of diagnosis (1989-1994, 1995-2000, 2001-2006, 2007-2008), and maternal age (<37 years, ≥37 years). Results The percentage of cases diagnosed antenatally has increased in younger women but varies between regions. It remained relatively constant at approximately 70% in older women. The use of NT measurement in antenatal screening has expanded rapidly but varies regionally, being most common in London and the South East where, in 2007-2008, over 75% of antenatal diagnoses in older women had NT measured. The sole indication of advanced maternal age has substantially reduced, and was less than 10% in older mothers in all regions in 2007-2008. Conclusions There are regional and maternal age variations in Down's syndrome screening and diagnosis. Some regions used NT measurements, and eliminated advanced maternal age as sole reason for antenatal diagnostic testing more quickly than others. The reasons for variations need to be identified and addressed to ensure that when new screening techniques become available, regional differences are minimized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To determine the excess risk of non-chromosomal congenital anomaly (NCA) among teenage mothers and older mothers. Design and setting Population-based prevalence study using data from EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers in 23 regions of Europe in 15 countries, covering a total of 1.75 million births from 2000 to 2004. Participants A total of 38 958 cases of NCA that were live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥20 weeks or terminations of pregnancy following prenatal diagnosis of a congenital anomaly. Main outcome measures Prevalence of NCA according to maternal age, and relative risk (RR) of NCA and 84 standard NCA subgroups compared with mothers aged 25–29. Results The crude prevalence of all NCA was 26.5 per 1000 births in teenage mothers (<20 years), 23.8 for mothers 20–24 years, 22.5 for mothers 25–29 years, 21.5 for mothers 30–34 years, 21.4 for mothers 35–39 years and 22.6 for mothers 40–44 years. The RR adjusted for country for teenage mothers was 1.11 (95% CI 1.06–1.17); 0.99 (95% CI 0.96–1.02) for mothers 35–39; and 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.07) for mothers 40–44. The pattern of maternal age-related risk varied significantly between countries: France, Ireland and Portugal had higher RR for teenage mothers, Germany and Poland had higher RR for older mothers. The maternal age-specific RR varied for different NCAs. Teenage mothers were at a significantly greater risk ( P < 0.01) of gastroschisis, maternal infection syndromes, tricuspid atresia, anencephalus, nervous system and digestive system anomalies while older mothers were at a significantly greater risk ( P < 0.01) of fetal alcohol syndrome, encephalocele, oesophageal atresia and thanatophoric dwarfism. Conclusions Clinical and public health interventions are needed to reduce environmental risk factors for NCA, giving special attention to young mothers among whom some risk factors are more prevalent. Reassurance can be given to older mothers that their age in itself does not confer extra risk for NCA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarises the main evidence and conclusions relating to using blood pressure measurement as a screening test to identify people who will develop ischaemic heart disease (IHD) or stroke, as recently published in a Health Technology Assessment report1. While blood pressure is recognised as an important cause of stroke and IHD, and lowering blood pressure can substantially lower the risk of these diseases, the measurement of blood pressure is a poor screening test. It is not good in distinguishing those who will and will not develop these diseases. The poor screening performance is illustrated by the findings that in the largest cohort study, persons in the top 10% of the distribution of systolic blood pressure experienced only 21% of all IHD events and 28% of all strokes at a given age. Using several cardiovascular risk factors in combination does not add materially to the poor screening performance of blood pressure alone. Among persons in a specified age group, the 5% at highest risk experience 17% of all heart disease deaths with risk computation based on blood pressure alone, 22% when based on blood pressure and apolipoprotein B (or LDL cholesterol) in combination, and only 28% using these two, smoking and three other cardiovascular risk factors all in combination. Identifying patients at the time of hospital discharge following myocardial infarction or stroke is the most effective screening test to identify those who will die of cardiovascular disease. In patients with a history of myocardial infarction or stroke the cardiovascular death rate in the absence of treatment is about 5% per year, a risk that persists for at least 15 years. In the absence of treatment, about half of all deaths from heart disease in a population occur after hospital discharge following the first infarct. Among persons with no history of cardiovascular disease, age is a better screening test than the reversible risk factors, and the best policy is to offer treatment to all persons above a specified age such as 55 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: Folic acid is known to prevent neural-tube defects (NTDs) but the size of the effect for a given dose is unclear. We aimed to quantify such an effect. Methods: We used published data from 13 studies of folic acid supplementation on serum folate concentrations and results from a large cohort study of the risk of NTDs according to serum folate, to measure the preventive effect of specified increases in intake of folic acid. Findings: Serum folate concentrations increase by 0.94 ng/mL (95% CI 0.77-1.10) for every 0.1 mg/day increase in folic acid intake in women aged 20-35 years, and about double that in people aged 40-65. Every doubling of serum folate concentration roughly halves the risk of an NTD. These two effects can be combined to predict the reduction in risk according to intake of extra folic acid and background serum folate concentration. Such results predict that the preventive effect is greater in women with low serum folate than in those with higher concentrations. The results have also been used to predict direct observations from large randomised trials and the effect of food fortification. From a typical western background serum folate of 5 ng/mL, about 0.2 mg/day (the US level of folic acid fortification) would be expected to reduce NTDs by about 20%; a similar effect can be expected from the current British recommendation (0.24 mg/day). An increase of 0.4 mg/day would reduce risk by about 36%, of 1 mg/day by 57%, and taking a 5-mg tablet daily would reduce risk by about 85%. Interpretation: Folic acid fortification levels should be increased. Additionally women planning a pregnancy should take 5 mg folic acid tablets daily, instead of the 0.4 mg dose presently recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cover image, created by Faaria Khan and Dania Khan, is based on the Original article, The association between Ehlers‐Danlos syndrome—hypermobility type and gastrointestinal symptoms in university students: a cross‐sectional study, by QASIM AZIZ et al., DOI 10.1111/nmo.12942. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The overlap of unexplained gastrointestinal ( GI) and somatic symptoms is well established in patients with functional gastrointestinal disorders ( FGID). Joint hypermobility syndrome ( JHS) is a non-inflammatory connective tissue disorder associated with GI and somatic symptoms. We aimed to determine whether there is an association between diagnosis of JHS and FGID and the impact of this association on comorbidities and quality of life ( QOL). Methods Prospective case-control study in secondary care GI clinics over 2 years. JHS was assessed by the first author prior to consultation in 641 consecutive new patients. Diagnosis of FGID (cases, n = 336) or organic disorders (controls, n = 305) was established blind to JHS status. JHS prevalence was compared in cases ( FGID patients) and controls (organic disorders patients). Extra-intestinal comorbidity and QOL were compared in FGID patients with and without JHS. Key Results JHS prevalence was higher in FGID compared to organic GI disorders (39.0% vs 27.5%, ORadj: 1.51, CI: 1.07-2.12, p = 0.02), and particularly associated with functional gastroduodenal disorders (44.1%, ORadj: 2.08, CI: 1.25-3.46, p = 0.005), specifically postprandial distress syndrome (51%, ORadj: 1.99, CI: 1.06-3.76, p = 0.03). FGID patients with JHS had increased chronic pain (23.2% vs 11.9%, p = 0.01), fibromyalgia (10.5% vs 3.1%, p = 0.01), somatization scores (13 vs 10, p < 0.001), urinary autonomic scores (30.5 vs 20.7, p = 0.03), and worse pain-related QOL scores (45.0 vs 63.5, p = 0.004). Conclusions & Inferences JHS is significantly associated with FGID, and this subgroup of patients have increased comorbidity and decreased QOL. Further research is required to understand the pathophysiological basis of this association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome.Design: Case-control: cases with each of these syndromes were matched to four controls with Down syndrome from within the same congenital anomaly register and with maternal age within 6 months.Setting: Data from 22 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers in 12 European countries.Participants: Diagnoses with observed or (for terminations) predicted year of birth from 1980 to 2005, comprising live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥ 20 weeks and terminations after prenatal diagnosis of the anomaly. Data include 374 cases of Patau syndrome, 929 of Edwards syndrome, 295 of Klinefelter syndrome, 28 of XYY syndrome and 5627 controls with Down syndrome.Main Outcome Measures: Odds ratio (OR) associated with a 10-year increase in paternal age for each anomaly was estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results were adjusted to take account of the estimated association of paternal age with Down syndrome (1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23).Results: The OR for Patau syndrome was 1.10 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.45); for Edwards syndrome, 1.15 (0.96 to 1.38); for Klinefelter syndrome, 1.35 (1.02 to 1.79); and for XYY syndrome, 1.99 (0.75 to 5.26).Conclusions: There was a statistically significant increase in the odds of Klinefelter syndrome with increasing paternal age. The larger positive associations of Klinefelter and XYY syndromes with paternal age compared with Patau and Edwards syndromes are consistent with the greater percentage of these sex chromosome anomalies being of paternal origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To validate empirically the accuracy of antenatal Down's syndrome screening using the Integrated test, to compare this with other screening tests (including the Integrated test with the addition of cross trimester [CT] marker ratios) and to suggest how such validation analyses should be presented and interpreted. Methods: Using data from 7809 unaffected and 27 Down's syndrome pregnancies that had had an Integrated test, risk estimates for various screening tests (maternal age, Double, Triple, Quadruple, Combined, Integrated and serum Integrated tests) that use Integrated test markers were categorized according to quintile categories of risk estimates of the 27 affected pregnancies. For each screening test, the median risk estimate for each category was plotted against the observed prevalence within each category. Such validation plots were also produced for the Integrated test with CT marker ratios by measuring the level of the serum markers in the trimester of pregnancy not already measured in stored samples of all affected and a one-in-five sample of unaffected pregnancies. The robustness of the method was assessed by repeating the analysis for the Integrated test after re-classifying affected pregnancies with low risk estimates as unaffected, simulating the underascertainment of cases. Results: The validation plots (i) confirmed the accuracy of risk estimation for the different tests (by how close the points lay to the line of identity between predicted risk and observed prevalence), (ii) demonstrated the differences in screening performance of the different tests (by the range of risk spanned by the points and, in particular, the separation between the points representing the lowest risk and the next point), and (iii) are robust to underascertainment of affected pregnancies (by having little influence on the closeness of the points to the line of identity). Conclusion: The validation plot is a useful, simple and robust way to assess the validity of new screening methods, to assess the accuracy of risk estimation and to audit the performance of screening programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Folic acid is known to prevent neural-tube defects (NTDs) but the size of the effect for a given dose is unclear. We aimed to quantify such an effect.Methods: We used published data from 13 studies of folic acid supplementation on serum folate concentrations and results from a large cohort study of the risk of NTDs according to serum folate, to measure the preventive effect of specified increases in intake of folic acid.Findings: Serum folate concentrations increase by 0.94 ng/mL (95% CI 0.77-1.10) for every 0.1 mg/day increase in folic acid intake in women aged 20-35 years, and about double that in people aged 40-65. Every doubling of serum folate concentration roughly halves the risk of an NTD. These two effects can be combined to predict the reduction in risk according to intake of extra folic acid and background serum folate concentration. Such results predict that the preventive effect is greater in women with low serum folate than in those with higher concentrations. The results have also been used to predict direct observations from large randomised trials and the effect of food fortification. From a typical western background serum folate of 5 ng/mL, about 0.2 mg/day (the US level of folic acid fortification) would be expected to reduce NTDs by about 20%; a similar effect can be expected from the current British recommendation (0.24 mg/day). An increase of 0.4 mg/day would reduce risk by about 36%, of 1 mg/day by 57%, and taking a 5-mg tablet daily would reduce risk by about 85%.Interpretation: Folic acid fortification levels should be increased. Additionally women planning a pregnancy should take 5 mg folic acid tablets daily, instead of the 0.4 mg dose presently recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractObjective: To determine whether there is an independent association between infection with Chlamydia pneumoniae and ischaemic heart disease.Design: Prospective study using a nested case-control design.Setting: Medical centre in London run by BUPA, a private medical organisation.Participants: 21 520 professional men aged 35-64 who attended for a medical examination in London between 1975 and 1982.Main outcome measure: Death from ischaemic heart disease.Results: The distributions of concentrations of IgG and IgA antibodies to C pneumoniae were similar in the 647 men who subsequently died of ischaemic heart disease and in 1294 age matched controls who did not. There was no material association with heart disease irrespective of the cut-off point chosen to define seropositivity. At a cut-off point that defines 15% of controls as positive, for example, the odds ratios were 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.68) for IgG and 1.09 (0.82 to 1.43) for IgA.Conclusions: No material association was found between infection with C pneumoniae and ischaemic heart disease. The size and prospective design of the study and the socioeconomic homogeneity of the cohort minimise both random and systematic error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In vitro fertilization is associated with a high risk of multiple births, which is a direct consequence of the number of embryos transferred. However, other factors that contribute to the risk are not well defined. Methods: Using the data base established by the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority in the United Kingdom, we studied the factors associated with an increased risk of multiple births in 44,236 cycles in 25,240 women. The factors included the woman's age, the cause and duration of infertility, previous attempts at in vitro fertilization, previous live births, number of eggs fertilized, and number of embryos transferred. Results: Older age, tubal infertility, longer duration of infertility, and a higher number of previous attempts at in vitro fertilization were all associated with a significantly decreased chance of a birth and of multiple births. Previous live birth was associated with an increased chance of a birth but not of multiple births. The higher the number of eggs fertilized, the higher the likelihood of a live birth. When more than four eggs were fertilized, there was no increase in the birth rate for women receiving three transferred embryos as compared with those receiving two, but there was a considerable increase in the rate of multiple births when three were transferred (odds ratio, 1.6; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 1.8). Conclusions: Among women undergoing in vitro fertilization, the chances of a live birth are related to the number of eggs fertilized, presumably because of the greater selection of embryos for transfer. When more than four eggs are fertilized and available for transfer, the woman's chance of a birth is not diminished by transferring only two embryos. Transferring more embryos increases the risk of multiple births. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]