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Purpose African Swine Fever (ASF) is a serious disease that impacts on domestic pig production. It has no approved vaccines or effective treatments. The potential costs of ASF entering Australia include the costs of eradication, costs to industry until the disease is eradicated, and long-term costs of ASF’s presence should eradication prove economically or technically infeasible. The analysis in this report estimated the costs to the economy of 2 plausible scenarios for an ASF incursion into Australia - incursions into either the feral pig population or the domestic production system - as well as the costs of ASF becoming endemic. Key findings • A small-scale outbreak of ASF in feral pigs followed by eradication of the disease was estimated to cost 101 million to 127 million Dollar. • A small-scale outbreak of ASF in domestic pigs followed by eradication of the disease was estimated to cost 117 million to 263 million Dollar. • Larger outbreaks would cost more and make eradication more difficult, particularly outbreaks in the feral population. • Endemic ASF was estimated to cost between about 0.4 billion and 2.5 billion Dollar. • The estimated cost of endemic ASF was influenced by the rate at which it spreads through the country, which in turn influences the extent to which enhanced biosecurity practices across the Australian pork supply chain and heightened surveillance activities are implemented, the frequency of spillover into the production system, and the cost of spillover events.

This report is an example of the economic advice that ABARES provides to policy colleagues faced with emerging industry issues. In 2018, falling public confidence in the live sheep trade led the Australian Government to consult on regulations designed to help the trade retain its social licence by improving animal welfare. Over the next 18 months, ABARES provided background research and advice on the industry and market impacts of regulatory options. This report reveals the economic analysis on which this advice was based.