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Summary Background Pulse oximeters are widely used to monitor blood oxygen saturations, although concerns exist that they are less accurate in individuals with pigmented skin. Aims This study aimed to determine if patients with pigmented skin were more severely unwell at the period of transfer to intensive care units than individuals with White skin. Methods Using data from a large teaching hospital, measures of clinical severity at the time of transfer of patients with Covid-19 infection to intensive care units were assessed, and how this varied by ethnic group. Results Data were available on 748 adults. Median pulse oximetry demonstrated similar oxygen saturations at the time of transfer to intensive care units (Kruskal Wallis test, p = 0.51), although median oxygen saturation measurements from arterial blood gases at this time demonstrated lower oxygen saturations in patients classified as Indian/Pakistani ethnicity (91.6%) and Black/Mixed ethnicity (93.0%), compared to those classified as a White ethnicity (94.4%, Kruskal Wallis test, p = 0.005). There were significant differences in mean respiratory rates in these patients (p < 0.0001), ranging from 26 breaths/minute in individuals with White ethnicity to 30 breaths/minute for those classified as Indian/Pakistani ethnicity and 31 for those who were classified as Black/Mixed ethnicity. Conclusions These data are consistent with the hypothesis that differential measurement error for pulse oximeter readings negatively impact on the escalation of clinical care in individuals from other than White ethnic groups. This has implications for healthcare in Africa and South-East Asia, and may contribute to differences in health outcomes across ethnic groups globally.

Research question: Should prognostic tools for SARS-CoV-2 use parameters fitted only at time of admission or across all time points of an admission?Methods: A cohort study used clinical data to model the dynamic change in prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 in a single hospital in England including all patients admitted from 1st February 2020 until 31st December 2020, and then followed up for ICU admission, death, or discharge from hospital for 60 days. We incorporated clinical observations and blood tests into two-time varying Cox proportional hazards models predicting daily 24–48-hour risk of admission to ICU for those eligible, or death for those ineligible for escalation.Results: To develop the model 491 patients were eligible for ICU escalation and 769 were ineligible for escalation. Our model had good discrimination of daily risk of ICU admission in the validation cohort (n = 1141, C statistic = 0.91 (95% CI 0.89 -0.94)) and performed better than other scores (NEWS2, ISCARIC 4C) calculated using only parameters on admission, but overestimated escalation (calibration slope 0.7). Conclusions: A bespoke daily SARS-CoV-2 escalation risk prediction score can predict need for clinical escalation better than a generic early warning score or a single estimation of risk calculated at admission.

Objective: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often develops in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis at an annual risk of up to 2.5%. Some host genetic risk factors have been identified but do not account for the majority of the variance in occurrence. This study aimed to identify novel susceptibility loci for the development of HCC in people with alcohol related cirrhosis. Design: Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis and HCC (cases: n=1214) and controls without HCC (n=1866), recruited from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy and the UK, were included in a two-stage genome-wide association study using a case-control design. A validation cohort of 1520 people misusing alcohol but with no evidence of liver disease was included to control for possible association effects with alcohol misuse. Genotyping was performed using the InfiniumGlobal Screening Array (V.24v2, Illumina) and the OmniExpress Array (V.24v1-0a, Illumina). Results: Associations with variants rs738409 in PNPLA3 and rs58542926 in TM6SF2 previously associated with an increased risk of HCC in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis were confirmed at genome-wide significance. A novel locus rs2242652(A) in TERT (telomerase reverse transcriptase) was also associated with a decreased risk of HCC, in the combined meta-Analysis, at genome-wide significance (p=6.41×10-9, OR=0.61 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.70). This protective association remained significant after correction for sex, age, body mass index and type 2 diabetes (p=7.94×10-5, OR=0.63 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.79). Carriage of rs2242652(A) in TERT was associated with an increased leucocyte telomere length (p=2.12×10-44). Conclusion: This study identifies rs2242652 in TERT as a novel protective factor for HCC in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis.

Objective If non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis were recorded frequently enough in clinical practice, it might be feasible to use them for opportunistic community screening for liver disease. We aimed to determine their current pattern of usage in the national primary care population in Wales. Design Using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank at Swansea University (2000-2017), we quantified the frequency of common liver blood tests (aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), platelet count and albumin) used in fibrosis marker algorithms. We examined measurement variation by age and sex. Results During the 18-year study period, there were 2 145 178 adult patients with at least one blood test available for analysis. Over the study period, the percentage of SAIL patients receiving an ALT test in each year increased from 2% to 33%, with platelet count and albumin measurement increasing by a similar factor. AST testing, although initially rising, had decreased to 1% by the end of the study. AST and ALT values varied by age and sex, particularly in males with the upper normal range of ALT values decreasing rapidly from 90 U/L at age 30 to 45 U/L by age 80. Conclusion The reduction in AST testing to only 1% of the adult population limits the use of many non-invasive liver marker algorithms. To enable widespread screening, alternative algorithms for liver fibrosis that do not depend on AST should be developed. Liver fibrosis markers should be modified to include age-specific and sex-specific normal ranges.

AimTo assess the impact of Covid-19 on alcohol use disorders (AUD) and the role of universal alcohol screening (UAS) in an inpatient setting.MethodsRetrospective cohorts were defined as pre-pandemic and pandemic admitted to Nottingham University Hospitals (April to October; 2019 and 2020) and had alcohol assessment by AUDIT-C. AUDIT-C score was assessed against age, sex, ethnicity, admission type, speciality and primary diagnosis of mental disorders. Subgroup analysis for Covid-19 positive patients was performed.ResultsA total of 63,927 admissions (47,954 patients) were included. The pandemic period compared to pre-pandemic had fewer overall admissions (27,349 vs 36,578, P < 0.001), fewer with AUD (17.6% vs 18.4%, P =?0.008) but a higher proportion of alcohol dependents (3.7% vs 3.0%, P 0.0001). In the pandemic those with AUD were more likely to be male (P =?0.003), white (P

Background and Aims: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study. Approach and Results: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20–25.0 kg/m2. A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years’ follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34–0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89–1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34–0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46–2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI). Conclusions: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome.

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is an ignored epidemic. Premature mortality is considerable and in the United Kingdom (UK) liver disease is in the top three for inequitable healthcare alongside heart and respiratory disease. Fifty percentage of patients with CLD are first diagnosed with cirrhosis after an emergency presentation translating to poorer patient outcomes. Traditional models of care have been based in secondary care when the need is at community level. Investigating patients for disease based on their risk factors at a population level in the community will identify its presence early when there is potential reversibility. Innovation is needed in three broad areas to improve clinical care in this area: better access to diagnostics within the community, integrating diagnostics across primary and secondary care and utilizing digital healthcare to enhance patient care. In this article, we describe how the Integrated Diagnostics for Early Detection of Liver Disease (ID-LIVER) project, funded by UK Research and Innovation, is developing solutions in Greater Manchester to approach the issue of diagnosis of liver disease at a population level. The ambition is to build on innovative pathways previously established in Nottingham by bringing together NHS organizations, academic partners and commercial organizations. The motivation is to co-create and implement a commercial solution that integrates multimodal diagnostics via cutting edge data science to drive growth and disrupt the currently inadequate model. The ambitious vision is for this to be widely adopted for early diagnosis and stratification of liver disease at a population level within the NHS.

The host genetic background for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is incompletely understood. We aimed to determine if four germline genetic polymorphisms, rs429358 in apolipoprotein E (APOE), rs2642438 in mitochondrial amidoxime reducing component 1 (MARC1), rs2792751 in glycerol‐3‐phosphate acyltransferase (GPAM), and rs187429064 in transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2), previously associated with progressive alcohol‐related and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, are also associated with HCC. Four HCC case‐control data sets were constructed, including two mixed etiology data sets (UK Biobank and FinnGen); one hepatitis C virus (HCV) cohort (STOP‐HCV), and one alcohol‐related HCC cohort (Dresden HCC). The frequency of each variant was compared between HCC cases and cirrhosis controls (i.e., patients with cirrhosis without HCC). Population controls were also considered. Odds ratios (ORs) associations were calculated using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and principal components of genetic ancestry. Fixed‐effect meta‐analysis was used to determine the pooled effect size across all data sets. Across four case‐control data sets, 2,070 HCC cases, 4,121 cirrhosis controls, and 525,779 population controls were included. The rs429358:C allele (APOE) was significantly less frequent in HCC cases versus cirrhosis controls (OR, 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61‐0.84; P = 2.9 × 10−5). Rs187429064:G (TM6SF2) was significantly more common in HCC cases versus cirrhosis controls and exhibited the strongest effect size (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.45‐2.86; P = 3.1 × 10−6). In contrast, rs2792751:T (GPAM) was not associated with HCC (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90‐1.13; P = 0.89), whereas rs2642438:A (MARC1) narrowly missed statistical significance (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.84‐1.00; P = 0.043). Conclusion: This study associates carriage of rs429358:C (APOE) with a reduced risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Conversely, carriage of rs187429064:G in TM6SF2 is associated with an increased risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.