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Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors., Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables

Data assimilation plays a key role in large-scale atmospheric weather forecasting, where the state of the physical system is estimated from model outputs and observations, and is then used as initial condition to produce accurate future forecasts. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) provides a practical implementation of the statistical solution of the data assimilation problem and has gained wide popularity as. This success can be attributed to its simple formulation and ease of implementation. EnKF is a Monte-Carlo algorithm that solves the data assimilation problem by sampling the probability distributions involved in Bayes theorem. Because of this, all flavors of EnKF are fundamentally prone to sampling errors when the ensemble size is small. In typical weather forecasting applications, the model state space has dimension $10^{9}-10^{12}$, while the ensemble size typically ranges between $30-100$ members. Sampling errors manifest themselves as long-range spurious correlations and have been shown to cause filter divergence. To alleviate this effect covariance localization dampens spurious correlations between state variables located at a large distance in the physical space, via an empirical distance-dependent function. The quality of the resulting analysis and forecast is greatly influenced by the choice of the localization function parameters, e.g., the radius of influence. The localization radius is generally tuned empirically to yield desirable results.This work, proposes two adaptive algorithms for covariance localization in the EnKF framework, both based on a machine learning approach. The first algorithm adapts the localization radius in time, while the second algorithm tunes the localization radius in both time and space. Numerical experiments carried out with the Lorenz-96 model, and a quasi-geostrophic model, reveal the potential of the proposed machine learning approaches., Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures

This paper introduces multivariate input-output models to predict the errors and bases dimensions of local parametric Proper Orthogonal Decomposition reduced-order models. We refer to these multivariate mappings as the MP-LROM models. We employ Gaussian Processes and Artificial Neural Networks to construct approximations of these multivariate mappings. Numerical results with a viscous Burgers model illustrate the performance and potential of the machine learning based regression MP-LROM models to approximate the characteristics of parametric local reduced-order models. The predicted reduced-order models errors are compared against the multi-fidelity correction and reduced order model error surrogates methods predictions, whereas the predicted reduced-order dimensions are tested against the standard method based on the spectrum of snapshots matrix. Since the MP-LROM models incorporate more features and elements to construct the probabilistic mappings they achieve more accurate results. However, for high-dimensional parametric spaces, the MP-LROM models might suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Scalability challenges of MP-LROM models and the feasible ways of addressing them are also discussed in this study., Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures, 7 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1511.02909

This paper presents a fully non-Gaussian version of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling filter. The Gaussian prior assumption in the original HMC filter is relaxed. Specifically, a clustering step is introduced after the forecast phase of the filter, and the prior density function is estimated by fitting a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to the prior ensemble. Using the data likelihood function, the posterior density is then formulated as a mixture density, and is sampled using a HMC approach (or any other scheme capable of sampling multimodal densities in high-dimensional subspaces). The main filter developed herein is named "cluster HMC sampling filter" (ClHMC). A multi-chain version of the ClHMC filter, namely MC-ClHMC is also proposed to guarantee that samples are taken from the vicinities of all probability modes of the formulated posterior. The new methodologies are tested using a quasi-geostrophic (QG) model with double-gyre wind forcing and bi-harmonic friction. Numerical results demonstrate the usefulness of using GMMs to relax the Gaussian prior assumption in the HMC filtering paradigm.

Reduced order models are computationally inexpensive approximations that capture the important dynamical characteristics of large, high-fidelity computer models of physical systems. This paper applies machine learning techniques to improve the design of parametric reduced order models. Specifically, machine learning is used to develop feasible regions in the parameter space where the admissible target accuracy is achieved with a predefined reduced order basis, to construct parametric maps, to chose the best two already existing bases for a new parameter configuration from accuracy point of view and to pre-select the optimal dimension of the reduced basis such as to meet the desired accuracy. By combining available information using bases concatenation and interpolation as well as high-fidelity solutions interpolation we are able to build accurate reduced order models associated with new parameter settings. Promising numerical results with a viscous Burgers model illustrate the potential of machine learning approaches to help design better reduced order models., Comment: 28 pages, 15 figures, 6 tables

This study considers using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for stochastic simulation of chemical reactions. The proposed method uses SSA (Stochastic Simulation Algorithm) distribution which is a standard method for solving well-stirred chemically reacting systems as a desired distribution. A new numerical solvers based on exponential form of exact and approximate solutions of CME (Chemical Master Equation) is employed for obtaining target and proposal distributions in Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to accelerate the accuracy of the tau-leap method. Samples generated by this technique have the same distribution as SSA and the histogram of samples show it's convergence to SSA.

This paper discusses new simulation algorithms for stochastic chemical kinetics that exploit the linearity of the chemical master equation and its matrix exponential exact solution. These algorithms make use of various approximations of the matrix exponential to evolve probability densities in time. A sampling of the approximate solutions of the chemical master equation is used to derive accelerated stochastic simulation algorithms. Numerical experiments compare the new methods with the established stochastic simulation algorithm and the tau-leaping method., Comment: 14 pages- 4 figures