1. The prognostic value of metabolic profiling in older patients with a proximal femoral fracture
- Author
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P. Eline Slagboom, H. Eka D. Suchiman, Max P.L. van der Sijp, Gerard J. Blauw, Dina Vojinovic, Monica Spruit-van Eijk, Wilco P. Achterberg, and Arthur H.P. Niggebrugge
- Subjects
Oncology ,medicine.medical_specialty ,proximal femoral fracture ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,lcsh:Geriatrics ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Older patients ,lcsh:Orthopedic surgery ,prognostics ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Orthopedics and Sports Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,business.industry ,Rehabilitation ,High mortality ,metabolic profiling ,biomarkers ,Femoral fracture ,medicine.disease ,metabolomics ,lcsh:RD701-811 ,lcsh:RC952-954.6 ,Surgery ,Original Article ,Geriatrics and Gerontology ,business ,After treatment - Abstract
Introduction: High mortality rates of approximately 20% within 1 year after treatment are observed for patients with proximal femoral fractures. This preliminary study explores the prognostic value of a previously constructed mortality risk score based on a set of 14 metabolites for the survival and functional recovery in patients with proximal femoral fractures. Materials and Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted including patients admitted with a proximal femoral fracture. The primary outcome was patient survival, and the recovery of independence in activities of daily living was included as a secondary outcome. The mortality risk score was constructed for each patient and its prognostic value was tested for the whole population. Results: Data was available form 136 patients. The mean age of all patients was 82.1 years, with a median follow-up of 6 months. Within this period, 19.0% of all patients died and 51.1% recovered to their prefracture level of independence. The mortality score was significantly associated with mortality (HR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.61-4.66; P < 0.001), but showed only a fair prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.68) and a borderline significant comparison of the mortality score tertile groups in survival analyses (P = 0.049). No decisive associations were found in any of the analyses for the functional recovery of patients. Discussion: These findings support the previously determined prognostic value of the mortality risk score. However, the independent prognostic value when adjusted for potential confounding factors is yet to be assessed. Also, a risk score constructed for this specific patient population might achieve higher accuracies for the prediction of survival and functional recovery. Conclusions: A modest prediction accuracy was observed for the mortality risk score in this population. More elaborate studies are needed to validate these findings and develop a tailored model for clinical purposes in this patient population.
- Published
- 2020