Search

When one invests in portfolios of derivatives (such as options), the delta-gamma approximation (DGA) is often used as a risk management strategy to reduce the risk associated with the underlying asset price. However, this approximation is locally accepted only for small changes of the underlying asset price. When these changes become large, the option prices estimated by the DGA may significantly differ from those of the market (or those that are estimated using, for instance, the Black–Scholes model), depending mainly on the time-to-maturity, implied volatility, and moneyness. Hence, in practice, before the change of the underlying asset price becomes large, rebalancing operations are demanded to minimize the losses occurred due to the error introduced by the DGA. The frequency of rebalancing may be high when the rate at which the underlying asset price significantly changes. Nonetheless, frequent rebalancing may be unattainable, as there are associated transaction costs. Hence, there is a trade-off between the losses resulting from the inaccurate performance of the DGA and the transaction costs incurring from frequent hedging operations. In the present work, we show two approaches that can outperform the DGA, in this way to increase the accuracy of estimating the option prices with the ultimate goal of reducing the losses due to the estimation error. The first method is similar to the DGA but we change the reference value that the DGA uses (that is, the initial price of the underlying asset) to the underlying asset price forecasted for the time horizon. We coin this method as the extended delta-gamma approximation (EDGA). The second method that we consider in this work is the locally weighted regression (LWR) that locally regresses the option prices from the changes of the underlying asset prices, with the same reference value that is employed in the EDGA method. Finally, we compare the performance of the two methods presented in this work to that of some existing methods.

A warrant is a financial agreement that gives the right but not the responsibility, to buy or sell a security at a specific price prior to expiration. Many researchers inadvertently utilize call option pricing models to price equity warrants, such as the Black Scholes model which had been found to hold many shortcomings. This paper investigates the pricing of equity warrants under a hybrid model of Heston stochastic volatility together with stochastic interest rates from Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. This work contributes to exploration of the combined effects of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates on pricing equity warrants which fills the gap in the current literature. Analytical pricing formulas for hybrid equity warrants are firstly derived using partial differential equation approaches. Further, to implement the pricing formula to realistic contexts, a calibration procedure is performed using local optimization method to estimate all parameters involved. We then conducted an empirical application of our pricing formula, the Black Scholes model, and the Noreen Wolfson model against the real market data. The comparison between these models is presented along with the investigation of the models' accuracy using statistical error measurements. The outcomes revealed that our proposed model gives the best performance which highlights the crucial elements of both stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates in valuation of equity warrants. We also examine the warrants' moneyness and found that 96.875% of the warrants are in-the-money which gives positive returns to investors. Thus, it is beneficial for warrant holders concerned in purchasing warrants to elect the best warrant with the most profitable and more benefits at a future date.

By employing a randomisation procedure on the variance parameter of the standard geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, we construct new families of analytically tractable asset pricing models. In particular, we develop two explicit families of processes that are respectively referred to as the randomised gamma (G) and randomised inverse gamma (IG) models, both characterised by a shape and scale parameter. Both models admit relatively simple closed-form analytical expressions for the transition density and the no-arbitrage prices of standard European-style options whose Black-Scholes implied volatilities exhibit symmetric smiles in the log-forward moneyness. Surprisingly, for integer-valued shape parameter and arbitrary positive real scale parameter, the analytical option pricing formulas involve only elementary functions and are even more straightforward than the standard (constant volatility) Black-Scholes (GBM) pricing formulas. Moreover, we show some interesting characteristics of the risk-neutral transition densities of the randomised G and IG models, both exhibiting fat tails. In fact, the randomised IG density only has finite moments of the order less than or equal to one. In contrast, the randomised G density has a finite first moment with finite higher moments depending on the time-to-maturity and its scale parameter. We show how the randomised G and IG models are efficiently and accurately calibrated to market equity option data, having pronounced implied volatility smiles across several strikes and maturities. We also calibrate the same option data to the wellknown SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) model.

Velocity of money is an important instrument used to measure the monetary target and quality of monetary policy. Referencing the trends in the money velocity, mainly in the short term, will have a paramount effect in determining the trends in real money growth. This study investigates the main causes of money velocity in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1974/75 to 2015/16. A regression with Bayesian estimation and nonparametric Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS) methods were used to analyze the data. Variables such as credit, real interest rate, real exchange rate and real per capita income were included as potential determinants of money velocity. The findings of using non-parametric LOWESS methods show an upward trends in the velocity of money since 2002 and downward trends before 2002, indicating the existence’s of prudent monetary policy in Ethiopia after 2002. The result also shows a positive effect of real exchange rate and credit, whereas income per capita and real interest rates have a negative effect on velocity of money in Ethiopia. Hence, this paper recommends that, the policy to encourage sustainable economic growth and increase in interest rate would be beneficial to reduce velocity of money.

Purpose The paper aims to explore the informational role of futures volume in the simultaneous relationship between option volume and spot volatility to forecast the volatility of the underlying asset. Design/methodology/approach The generalized method of moments is used to estimate the simultaneous equations of endogeneity between spot volatility and option volume. Futures volume is specified as an exogenous variable in both legs of the estimation of simultaneous equations. However, the future volume is also tested as a dependent variable to prove preference for investment by informed investors in futures along with options. Findings The result indicates that futures volume has a significant association with the bi-directional simultaneous equation estimation between spot volatility and option volume. Moreover, the result of this paper proves that informed investors also prefer futures markets over the spot market. However, there is no change observed in the relationship between option volume and spot volatility due to either call or put options or moneyness. Originality/value The possible role of futures volume in the simultaneous equations between spot volatility and option volume has not yet been researched. This paper pioneers in demonstrating that futures volume is an exogenous variable in the simultaneous equation modeling between spot volatility and option volume. Moreover, in the contemporaneous as well as predictive relationships between spot volatility and option volume, futures volume as an exogenous variable is significant in forecasting spot volatility. In addition to this, the current paper uniquely provides evidence of investment in futures also over the spot market by informed investors.

This study examines money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to access the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are dynamically linked negatively, suggesting that exchange rate (or interest rate) is inversely sensitive to interest rate (or exchange rate) in Nigeria. This result was substantiated by the estimated BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model. Furthermore, the effects of news (shocks spillover) are bi-directional across the markets. However, volatility spillover is unidirectional, from exchange rate to interest rate, suggesting that, calming the volatility in foreign exchange market does guarantee moderation of volatility in the money market, whereas the reverse is not the case. The results underscore the growing influence of foreign exchange market in the financial space of the Nigerian economy. Thus, the study recommends that foreign exchange policies aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability should be sustained, having found exchange rate to be more effective in moderating interest rate volatility in Nigeria.

We set up an agent-based model where the parameters of firms’ pricing heuristics are determined through evolutionary learning. We argue that there are several key ingredients that result in the emergence of the lead–lag pattern in the money growth–inflation relationship. First, a realistic representation of money creation through a lending mechanism is essential. Second, there must be considerable heterogeneity in the distribution of newly created deposits and in the associated changes in demand at the individual firm level.

This study uses theoretical and empirical approaches to analyze a number of phenomena observed in trading floors, such as the changes in trading volumes and Bid–Ask spreads as a function of the moneyness level and the remaining time until the option’s expiration. A mathematical model for pricing options is developed that assumes two players with heterogeneous beliefs, where the objective of each player is to maximize their profit on the expiration day. By solving a system of algebraic equations, which takes into consideration the subjective beliefs of the players regarding the price of the underlying asset on expiration day, a feasible price domain is constructed that defines the boundaries within which a transaction may be executed. The developed model is applied to the special case in which the distribution of the underlying asset price on expiration day is uniform, and a sensitivity analysis for selected parameters is presented. An interesting theoretical result that emerges from the proposed model is the existence of an interval under which there is no tradability near the expiration day. The existence of this interval offers an explanation for the decrease in the apparent trading volumes of out-of-money (OTM) options, together with an increase in Bid–Ask spreads, as the expiration day approaches. The main parameters that affect the point of time after which there will be no trading are those that represent the players’ subjective beliefs about the distribution of the expiration values, and the cost of trading.

Financial crises have become a challenge for sustainable growth, given the frequency and intensity of crisis shocks and their destructive consequences in recent decades. The paper aims to study how the endogenously generated excess money supply can contribute to global financial crises. The creation of money supply is examined from the perspective of the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) and endogenous money, namely Horizontalism, Structuralism, and Modern Money Theory. Given that prices are not flexible in the short term, increased volatility in the money market prevents a short-term ready balance between money supply and output. The overall result of money supply accommodation can be unpredictable if monetary authorities and commercial banks do not pool their interests, and the money demand volatility becomes extremely high. The study of the correlation between money supply and output allowed distinguishing between neutral countries in the creation of extra liquid assets and countries that can be a potential trigger for excessive money supply volatility. Monitoring the dynamics of M3 and GDP showed that before the significant crisis periods of 1997–1998, 2007–2008, and 2019–2020, the growth of money supply was more than 8%. The established critical level confirms the potential contribution of endogenously created excess money supply to global financial crises.

In this study, we compare the pricing and hedging performance of options‐pricing models using two parameter‐estimation methods to employ cross‐sectional options data with multiple maturities. In the Portfolio of Volatility Smiles method, each set of parameters that describe the individual volatility smile for each maturity is estimated separately. In the Volatility Surface method, a single‐parameter set that describes the entire volatility surface is estimated, regardless of the time‐to‐maturity. When pricing and hedging options with various times to maturity, the Portfolio of Volatility Smiles method generally outperforms the Volatility Surface method, irrespective of the option‐pricing model used, maturity, and moneyness. Considering the volatility smile individually at each maturity is more effective in pricing and hedging options than is considering the volatility surface simultaneously.

The objective of this study was to analyze the money demand function for Zambia for the period 1978 – 2018 using annual time series data. The study employed the Gregory Hansen cointegration technique. The study also employed Hendry’s General to Specific technique to estimate the error correction model by obtaining a parsimonious model. The results of the Gregory Hansen test confirmed the presence of a cointegrating relationship and selected the GH-2 model as the most plausible model with a level shift and a trend. The results also endogenously determined 1994 as the break year in the money demand function. Other interesting results obtained by the study suggest that inflation and interest rate are the robust determinants of real money demand both in the short and long run. Furthermore, unlike many other developing countries, the results show that money is a necessity in Zambia. The other interesting results suggested by the study are that the financial sector reforms of 1994 diminished the demand for real money; however, the positive time trend suggests that there has been an increase in real money holdings over time in Zambia. The low-interest elasticity of money demand also potentially compromises the effectiveness of money supply as a monetary policy tool for economic stabilization. The results of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ confirm the stability of the money demand function in Zambia.

We propose a new uncertainty index based on the discrepancy of the smile of FX options. We show that our index spikes near turbulent periods, forecasts economic activity and its innovations hold a significant and negative equity premium. Unlike other uncertainty indexes, our index is supported by equilibrium models, which relate the difference of options prices across moneyness to uncertainty. Moreover, our index is based on investment decisions, can be easily and continuously updated and is comparable across countries.

The implied volatility for 50 ETF options in China shows a significant smile pattern across different moneyness. Call and put options on 50 ETFs transacted from February 2015 to December 2018 are obtained. Regression and vector autoregression analyses are employed to investigate the structural relationship between the volatility smile and potential determinants. The determinants considered in this study include liquidity variables, market momentum, features of the underlying asset and time to maturity. The empirical results show that time to maturity and uncertainty of the underlying asset are the main determinants of the structure of the volatility smile. Moreover, realized volatility of the underlying asset and liquidity proxy variables, open interest and the trading volume of options contracts, have significant impact on the structure of the volatility smile.

The aim of this study is to examine the volatility smile based on the European options on Shanghai stock exchange 50 ETF. The data gives evidence of the existence of a well-known U-shaped implied volatility smile for the SSE 50 ETF options market in China. For those near-month options, the implied volatility smirk is also observed. And the implied volatility remains high for the short maturity and decreases as the maturity increases. The patterns of the implied volatility of SSE 50 ETF options indicate that in-the-money options and out-of-the-money options are more expensive relative to at-the-money options. This makes the use of at-the-money implied volatility for pricing out-of- or in-the-money options questionable. In order to investigate the implied volatility, the regression-based implied volatility functions model is considered employed to study the implied volatility in this study as this method is simple and easy to apply in practice. Several classical implied volatility functions are investigated in this paper to find whether some kind of implied volatility functions could lead to more accurate options pricing values. The potential determinants of implied volatility are the degree of moneyness and days left to expiration. The empirical work has been expressed by means of simple ordinary least squares framework. As the study shows, when valuing options, the results of using volatility functions are mixed. For far-month options, using at-the-money implied volatility performs better than other volatility functions in option valuation. For near-month options, the use of volatility functions can improve the valuation accuracy for deep in-the-money options or deep out-of-the-money options. However, no particular implied volatility function performs very well for options of all moneyness level and time to maturity.

The article discusses the theoretical and practical issues of using the index method when conducting statistical monitoring of money circulation. The essence and basic concepts of monetary circulation in Ukraine are disclosed. It was found that cash flows and the amount of money in the economic system act as an important regulator of material production and all economic processes, which made it possible to build and characterize two- and three-factor deterministic GDP models for 2019‒2020. For this purpose, such indicators of monetary circulation as the average annual size of the money supply, cash, and the share of cash in the money supply, the speed of money supply and the speed of cash are calculated. For each model, an algorithm for assessing the impact of these indicators on the absolute change in Ukraine’s GDP by index methods of chain substitutions and the isolated influence of factors is presented and implemented. The advantages and disadvantages of index methods are shown both from the point of view of statistical calculations and from the point of view of economic concepts of money circulation. Calculations show that the growth of the money supply has a positive effect on the dynamics of the country’s GDP in 2020, and the rate indicators, on the contrary, reduce the GDP growth. In modern studies of monetary circulation, it is advisable to use the index method to identify the isolated influence of factors on the absolute growth of Ukraine’s GDP. The same method allows us to reveal how the effect of interaction between the rate of turnover of the money supply and its volume is distributed, depending on their separate influence. With this approach, each factor is provided with the same calculation conditions, the results do not depend on the economic nature of indicators and the order of their location in the original GDP model, there are no contradictions to the economic postulates of monetary circulation, although the problems of choosing a research method and its justification are still open.

In Ukraine, the key condition for solving the problem of a non-inflationary increase in the level of economy monetization is the development of financial intermediaries capable of redistributing cash flows to investments. The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for studying the influence of the level of economy monetization and the structure of the money supply on the lending activity of banks and, on this basis, to develop recommendations for the financial support of the agricultural sector of the economy. The article examines the following indicators of the structure and quality of the money supply in the economy: the level of economy monetization, the share of various aggregates in the money supply, the money multiplier and factors affecting them. The authors' attention is focused on the need for scientific substantiation of the economy's need for money and the management of the structure of the money supply to achieve the goals of state monetary policy. The role of state monetary policy in creating conditions for the resumption of growth in the agricultural sector was revealed. The analysis of macroeconomic indicators was carried out and the assessment of the impact of key factors on the state of the agricultural sector and the economy as a whole was carried out. The assessment of the level of monetization of the Ukrainian economy was carried out. The reasons for the low level of monetization of the Ukrainian economy were revealed and the ways to overcome it were formulated. Based on a critical analysis of various positions, it is shown what a balanced monetary policy should be in Ukraine. It has been proved that a significant decrease in the discount rate and an excessive increase in the money supply lead to an increase in inflation, an increase in risks in the financial sector and a destabilization of the situation in the agricultural sector, as well as in the economy as a whole. The relationship between the emission mechanism and the policy of stimulating the growth of the agricultural sector has been determined. The role of the main institutional elements of state monetary policy in enhancing the progressive development of the Ukrainian economy was revealed. Recommendations for improving the state regulation of the monetary sphere were given.

This study aims to better understand the role of centralized and decentralized ledgers in the money supply process. The aim is to highlight the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of these tools in the context of finance and banking. A thorough investigation of the prior literature was carried out using sources extracted from various academic databases. A SWOT analysis based on an integrative literature review methodology was conducted to synthesize various research contributions and analyze relevant information related to centralized and decentralized ledgers. The findings reveal that centralized ledgers are still critical in the record-keeping of financial transactions, despite the strengths and opportunities of decentralized ledgers outweighing those of centralized ledgers. This study helps to increase the understanding of financial and banking sector managers concerning the importance of decentralized ledgers in delivering more value to customers.

This study examined the long-run money demand function in search for stability in twenty (20) Non-EMU member countries by applying Co-integration, an ARDL bounds test, CUSUM, and CUSUM squared estimation techniques to data spanning 1996 – 2019. We found co-integrating relationship between money demand and its determinants for all the countries under consideration (19 out of 20) except for Sweden. Stability in the money demand was also confirmed in seven (7) countries (Russia, Hungary, Montenegro, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia) based on both the CUSUM test results and CUSUM squared test. The remaining countries exhibited partial stability as indicated by the non-simultaneous stability of the CUSUM and CUSUM squared test. The divergence and heterogeneity found in the money demand functions and its determinants in these countries only give further impetus to their non - membership in the Eurozone. Hence there is the need for stability and convergence in the monetary policy management and money demand function to be admitted into the Eurozone holding other conditions fixed.

We study energy futures option returns for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, and gasoline. Average call and put returns are negative at short maturities, more so for OTM options, and increase with maturity. Put returns are less negative than call returns, but this is not the case for delta-hedged returns, indicating that the aggregate risk of the underlying energy futures is priced in the raw option returns. Moneyness patterns in raw and delta-hedged returns are similar to patterns for index option returns. Significant differences between the four commodities remain after removing the effect of the underlying futures returns, with natural gas as the main outlier. Variance risk premiums are negative and explain some maturity patterns in returns, but they cannot account for return differences across markets. Energy producers are net short the underlying through their option positions, and speculators net long. The larger the net long position of the speculators, the lower the returns on call options, which suggests that demand from speculators may affect option returns in energy markets.

The macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia and other third world countries have never been separated from economic problems, one of which is high foreign debt. This is indicated because of the vicious cycle that occurs in the modern macroeconomic system (Nuraini, 2020), namely if the monetary sector is larger than the real sector or an increase in the money supply occurs, inflation or economic bubbles will occur, the way to overcome this is with a contraction policy to reduce the amount. money supply, and later the economy will slow down, if the economy slows down, it will be overcome by expansion policies to increase the money supply, one of which is a fiscal deficit policy, a fiscal deficit policy means that expenditure is greater than income, the difference will be financed the largest by debt so that debt will always be experiencing an increase, the form of foreign debt which refers to the dollar exchange rate will ultimately make the amount of debt and interest bigger and continue to increase and so turn in the circle. The purpose of this study is to empirically determine the effect of the fiscal deficit policy, the money supply, the foreign debt of the previous period, and the exchange rate (USD exchange rate) on the increase in External Debt (ULN), especially in Indonesia in the vulnerable period of 1989 to 2018. The result is that all independent variables have a significant and significant effect on foreign debt with a Goodness of fit of 97.57%

This paper examines the relative performance and access to mounts of female jockeys in American horseracing, the only major professional sport where female and male athletes directly compete on a regular basis. We modeled the determinants of the probability for a jockey finishing a race “in-the-money”—placing first, second, or third, and the determinants for receiving mounts. Among other findings, the results indicated that the probability for female jockeys finishing a race in the money was not significantly different from male jockeys, ceteris paribus, yet female jockeys continue to receive fewer mounts after controlling for other relevant, observable factors.

This study analyses the occurrence and extent of underpricing of index options on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The study uses discriminant analysis to explain the incidence of underp...

Die EZB plant ebenso wie die US-amerikanische Federal Reserve, ihr Infl ationsziel leicht auf 2 % anzuheben und dies im Durchschnitt mehrerer Jahre zu erreichen. Tatsächlich liegt die Infl ationsrate aber trotz der sehr lockeren Geldpolitik deutlich unter 2 %. Werden die Maßnahmen gegen die Corona-Krise die Preissteigerung erhöhen? Während der Finanzkrise war es nicht dazu gekommen. Auch die derzeit erwartete Wirtschaftsentwicklung spricht nicht für hohe Preissteigerungen. Aber welche Rate sollte als Indikator für die "wahre" Infl ation gemessen werden? Sollten die Vermögenspreise berücksichtigt werden? Was spricht für den BIP-Defl ator, was für den Konsumentenpreisindex? Wie ist eine hedonische Qualitätsbereinigung zu bewerten? Über diese Fragen diskutieren die Teilnehmer*innen des Zeitgesprächs. The ECB is discussing how to raise its inflation target slightly to 2 %, just as the US Federal Reserve is raising it slightly and aiming to achieve it over several years on average. In reality, however, the inflation rate is well below 2 % despite the very relaxed monetary policy. Will the measures against the corona crisis increase the inflation rate? This did not happen during the financial crisis despite the increase in the money supply. Even current economic developments do not explain the high price increases. So what rate should be measured as an indicator of "true" inflation? Should asset prices be taken into account? What about the GDP deflator, or the consumer price index? How should a hedonic quality adjustment be assessed? These are the questions that Zeitgespräch participants will discuss.

The use of the cryptocurrency share indicator in the total money supply as a tool for measuring public confidence in authority, allowing you to conduct an objective analysis using economic, financial indicators in order to give them a sociological assessment and develop recommendations for creating confidence management technologies. Cryptocurrency properties as antifiduciary money are considered. It is proved why an increase in the share of cryptocurrency in the money supply can be considered as a sign of a decrease in public confidence in the state. The prospects of statistics that allow tracking the dynamics of the cryptocurrency share in the money supply are analyzed. The advantages of the proposed confidence measurement tool compared to sociological survey, sociological experiment and introduction of indirect institutional indicators are demonstrated. Properties of Cryptocurrency as Antifiduciary Money as a Tool for Measuring Public Confidence in Power

The endowment and attachment effect are empirically well-documented in bilateral trade situations. Yet, the theoretical literature has so far failed to formally identify these effects. We fill this gap by introducing expectations-based loss aversion, which can explain both effects, into the classical setting by Myerson and Satterthwaite (1983). This allows us to formally identify the endowment and attachment effect and study their impact on information rents, allowing us to show that, in contrast to other behavioral approaches to the bilateral trade problem, the impossibility of inducing materially efficient trade persists in the presence of loss aversion. We then turn to the design of optimal mechanisms and consider the problem of maximizing the designer's revenue as well as gains from trade. We find that the designer optimally provides the agents with full insurance in the money dimension and, depending on the distribution of types, optimally increases or decreases the trade frequency in the presence of loss aversion. This version: July 2022

Money Laundering is a double crime that is continued crimes that frequently occur in Indonesia. This is indicated by the form of illegal money laundering as a crime that is a follow-up crime, while the main crime or crime of origin is known as predicate offense or core crime or there are countries that formulate it as unlawful activity, namely predicate crimes that generate money which are then carried out in the money laundering process (Money Laundering). As for one form of money laundering crime (Money Laundering), namely forestry crimes which are considered as predicate of crimes in the legal system as referred to in Law Number 8 of 2010 concerning the Prevention and Eradication of Money Laundering, of course it provides a legal basis for the law enforcement officers to carry out investigations and investigations as well as pursuing various suspicious transactions from financial institutions in order to seek cash flows that will eventually lead to intellectual actors holding funds for illegal logging activities. Although there are legal instruments that contain provisions of laws and regulations in the field of forestry and the environment, namely the Law Number 18 of 2013 concerning Prevention and Eradication of Forest Destruction and the Law Number 32 of 2009 concerning Environmental Protection and Management. However, in practice, the law enforcement has not been able to embrace the conception of understanding that in trapping perpetrators using the principle approach, it is suspected or should be suspected of having committed the crime of money laundering. What is being done now is to arrest the illegal logging actors who carry out

We investigate systematic and unsystematic option pricing biases in (a) pure jump Levy, (b) jump-diffusion, (c) stochastic volatility, and (d) GARCH models applied to the Black–Scholes–Merton model. We use options data for trades on the S&P500 index from the CBOE. In addition to standard ordinary least square regression, we employ Bayesian regression and Markov Chain Monte Carlo regression to investigate the moneyness and maturity biases of the models. We demonstrate the usefulness of these advanced methodologies as compared to the benchmark techniques.

The article puts forward a case against the nominalist ontology of money, that is, the heterodox notion that moneyness – the quality of being money – is conferred by the money of account. From the nominalist perspective, money is essentially a balance-sheet phenomenon: a credit-debit bookkeeping entity whose origins can be traced back to ancient Near Eastern practices of accounting. This ontological position, which is often erroneously traced back to Keynes’ Treatise, mystifies and obscures the actual history of the money of account as a regime of monetary governance and a mode of speculation that only made sense in the European late medieval context of bimetallism. The article thus provides a critique of monetary nominalism based on Keynes’ reflection on the value of money in the Treatise and the General Theory. In turn, it proceeds to historicise the phenomenon of the money of account, building on the seminal contributions of Marc Bloch and Luigi Einaudi.

We analyze the efficiency of the quasi Monte Carlo method (QMC) when used to compute credit valuation adjustment (CVA) and CVA sensitivities for various portfolios of interest rate swaps using a multi-currency extension to the Hull-White model. We find that QMC with Sobol’ sequences and the Brownian bridge discretization produces results as accurate as classical MC with 10,000 simulations when using roughly 800 simulations: a factor of 12 acceleration. The acceleration varies significantly across portfolios (increasing with moneyness and usually, but not always, decreasing with number of factors), calculation types (order from highest to lowest, usually, but not always, CVA, CR Deltas, IR and FX Deltas, and IR and FX Vegas), and the choice of model (local models usually outperform global models). QMC without the Brownian bridge discretization results in a more modest factor of 4 acceleration. Classical MC with antithetic sampling results in a factor of 2 acceleration. Randomized QMC (linear permutation of digits) with the Brownian bridge discretization improved the efficiency over the non-randomized sequences for smaller in-the-money portfolios. Randomization in combination with a direct and independent simulation approach of the risk factors produced extraordinary results in the limited tests we performed (CVA on a single currency swap), offering an additional factor of 6 acceleration over the pathwise simulation.

This research discusses the stock abnormal return effect of warrants to its underlying stock on its listing and maturity date. This study sample is the stock price changes of stocks backed with a warrant in the Indonesian stock market for the year 2008 to 2018—using an event study approach to observe stock abnormal return effect on the listing and maturity date of warrants. The results of this research are that we find a significant negative abnormal return around the warrants' listing date. On the warrants' expiration date, we find a significant negative effect before and after the money warrants' maturity date. However, a different result is obtained for the observation of out-of-the-money warrants that do not show any significant abnormal return on the event window.

The reform of financial benchmarks is one of the key elements of stability and trust in the financial market. In the money market, it is difficult to implement reforms because of the disappearance of the interbank deposit market, which was a reference market for IBOR-type rates. A solution is a hybrid method which combines declarations of panelists and prices of eligible transactions. Based on historic time series, the article analyses the impact of individual banks on the published index and presents the way the hybrid method can be used for WIBOR 3M. On the grounds of empirical data, the impact of particular banks was found to be moderate and the hybrid method proved to generate an interest rate series of a similar level, but of greater variance. The key problem is a limited impact of real-transaction prices on the published rate due to a low share of concluded deals and divergence of their prices from quotes generated by so called expert judgment in the analysed period.

A moneyness‐based propensity to sell (MPS) measure, at the aggregate level, determines the propensity of option holders to exercise their winning relative to losing positions. Using data on individual stock and S&P 500 Index options, we find that the MPS measure has significant predictive power over the cross section of delta‐hedged option returns. We test the disposition effect in the options market based on a long–short strategy that exploits price distortions induced by the disposition bias. More pronounced evidence of the disposition bias is found for individual at‐the‐money call options than put options where the significance of abnormal returns remains robust across different subsamples even after we control for the portfolio option greeks and market‐based risk factors. The profitability of the long–short strategy is related to limit‐to‐arbitrage proxies suggesting that behavioral explanations help explain the positive relation between the MPS measure and delta‐hedged option returns.

Background: There is special role of money in the economy due to its astonishing importance as change in the amount of it can have a significant effect on the major macroeconomic variables. Money supply is generally considered as policy-determined phenomenon. Like in all the nations, macroeconomic stability of Nepal also depends on the variation in the quantity of money. Objective: The principle objective of the study is to examine the impact of money supply on the economic growth of Nepal. Methodology: This study applies the ARDL approach to cointegration. Bounds test (F-version) has been carried out to determine the existence of long-run relationship between variables. Results: The empirical results pointed out that there is positive and significant long-term relationship between money supply and real economic growth in Nepal. Causality result reveals that there is unidirectional causality from money supply (M2) to Real GDP. The error correction term is found negative and statistically significant suggesting a correction of short-run disequilibrium within two and a half years. Conclusions: The study concludes that increase in the money supply helps to increase the real economic growth in Nepal. So, money supply and real GDP are associated in the long-run. Implications: The implication of the study is that, real economic growth in Nepal can be achieved if Nepal Rastra Bank emphasized on monetary policy instruments which help to increase the flow of money supply both in the short and long run.

Derivative trading, started in mid-2000, has become an integral and significant part of Indian stock market. The tremendous increase in trading volume in Indian stock market has reflected into high volatility in the option prices. The pricing of options is very complex aspect of applied finance and has been subject of extensive research. Black–Scholes option model is a scientific pricing model which is applied for determining the fair price for option contracts. This article examines if Black–Scholes option pricing model (BSOPM) is a good indicator of option pricing in Indian context. The literature review highlights that various studies have been conducted on BSOPM in various stock exchange across the world with mixed outcome on its relevance and applicability. This article is an empirical study to test the relevance of BSOPM for which 10 most popular industry’s stock listed on National Stock Exchange have been taken. Then the BSOPM has been applied using volatility and risk-free rate. Furthermore, t-test has been used to test the hypothesis and determine the significant relationship between BS model values and actual model values. This study concludes that BSOPM involves significant degree of mispricing. Hence, this model alone cannot be adopted as an indicator for option pricing. The variation from market price is synchronised with respect to moneyness and time to maturity of the option.

Does citizen approval of vote buying depend on the type of benefit being offered? I answer this question using data from a survey experiment conducted on a nationally representative sample of Nicaraguans in 2017. Nicaraguans report significantly lower approval of money-for votes exchanges compared to goods-for-votes exchanges. Furthermore, reported rates of vote buying are lower in the money condition (4.8%) than in the goods-for-votes condition (7.8%), even though the posttreatment question assessing vote buying experience was identical across conditions. This study echoes other work suggesting the need for care in designing questions about vote buying, as slight changes in question wording that prime participants to think about goods versus monetary exchanges can affect both citizen approval of the behavior and the reported prevalence of vote buying.