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Includes bibliography (p. 106-110). The University of Cyprus Library holds the printed form of the thesis. Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Cyprus, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, 2019 Number of sources in the bibliography: 81 Ο στόχος αυτής της διατριβής είναι να μελετήσω την επίδραση των διαταραχών της νομισματικής πολιτικής στις προσδοκίες των καταναλωτών και επιχειρήσεων. Το πρώτο κεφάλαιο εξετάζει πώς οι μη-αναμενόμενες αλλαγές (εκπλήξεις) της νομισματικής πολιτικής επηρεάζουν τις προσδοκίες των καταναλωτών όσον αφορά τον πληθωρισμό στην Ευρωζώνη. Το νέο χαρακτηριστικό της εμπειρικής μου προσέγγισης είναι η εκτίμηση των αλλαγών της νομισματικής πολιτικής που βασίζεται στις μεταβολές της νομισματικής πολιτικής που ήταν απρόβλεπτες σύμφωνα με τις δηλωμένες προβλέψεις των καταναλωτών. Παρατηρείται ότι αυτές οι εκπλήξεις της νομισματικής πολιτικής έχουν την αντίθετη επίδραση στον προσδοκώμενο πληθωρισμό με εκείνες που προκύπτουν υπό την προϋπόθεση ότι οι καταναλωτές είναι καλά ενημερωμένοι για την κατάσταση της οικονομίας. Χαλαρώνοντας την τελευταία υπόθεση και εστιάζοντας στις δηλωμένες προσδοκίες των καταναλωτών, οι απροσδόκητες αυξήσεις του επιτοκίου αυξάνουν τον προσδοκώμενο πληθωρισμό πριν από την Κρίση. Αυτό το αποτέλεσμα συνάδει με την θεωρία της ατελής πληροφόρησης, όπου οι αυξήσεις των επιτοκίων ερμηνεύονται ως θετικά νέα για την κατάσταση της οικονομίας από τους καταναλωτές που γνωρίζουν ότι οι υπεύθυνοι χάραξης πολιτικής έχουν σχετικά περισσότερες πληροφορίες. Το δεύτερο κεφάλαιο διερευνά τον αντίκτυπο των διακυμάνσεων της νομισματικής πολιτικής στις προσδοκίες των επιχειρήσεων για τις τιμές πώλησης και παραγωγής, χρησιμοποιώντας ένα μοντέλο το οποίο ονομάζεται “panel SVAR” για δέκα οικονομίες της ζώνης του ευρώ για την περίοδο 1999: 1 έως 2018:6. Για να εντοπίσω την “μη-αναμενόμενη” αλλαγή της νομισματικής πολιτικής, χρησιμοποιώ κάποιες επιπλέον μεταβλητές “external instruments”, οι οποίες κατασκευάζονται με βάση τις πληροφορίες που έχει η Κεντρική Τράπεζα από τις προβλέψεις που κάνει για την οικονομία και με βάση των αλλαγών στις τιμές των επιτοκίων λαμβάνοντας υπόψη τις ανακοινώσεις της Ευρωπαϊκής Κεντρικής Τράπεζας σχετικά με τις αποφάσεις της. Τα αποτελέσματα τις εκτίμησης μας, δείχνουν ότι οι επιχειρήσεις αναθεωρούν συνήθως τις προσδοκίες τους κατά τρόπο συνεπή με την θεωρία της ατελής πληροφόρησης. Το ενδιαφέρον αποτέλεσμα που βρίσκουμε είναι ότι μετά την αρχική “έκπληξη” που οδηγεί τις επιχειρήσεις να αυξήσουν (μειώσουν) τις προσδοκίες για το επίπεδο παραγωγής και τιμής πώλησης τους μετά από μια απροσδόκητη αύξηση των επιτοκίων (επέκταση του M1), οι επιχειρήσεις σταδιακά φτάνουν στο συμπέρασμα ότι η περιοριστική (επεκτατική) νομισματική πολιτική θα μειώσει (αυξήσει) την παραγωγή και στη συνέχεια τον πληθωρισμό, αναθεωρώντας έτσι τις προσδοκίες τους μειώνοντας (αυξάνοντας) πρώτα τις προσδοκίες για το επίπεδο παραγωγής τους και έπειτα τις προσδοκίες το επίπεδο τιμών πώλησης σύμφωνα με αυτή την εμπειρία μάθησης με την πάροδο του χρόνου. Στο τρίτο κεφάλαιο συνεχίζω την ανάλυση μου στον τομέα νομισματικής πολιτικής χρησιμοποιώντας ποσοτικά δεδομένα από το Πανεπιστήμιο του Μίσιγκαν, αντί για τα ποιοτικά στοιχεία που είναι διαθέσιμα για τις χώρες της Ευρωζώνης. Εδώ βρίσκω ότι οι καταναλωτές αυξάνουν τον προσδοκώμενο πληθωρισμό μετά από μια απροσδόκητη αύξηση του επιτόκιο, ανεξάρτητα από την υπόθεση που κάνω σχετικά με την πληροφόρησή που έχουν στην διάθεση τους. Στην περίπτωση των ΗΠΑ, οι κατηγορίες ατόμων που ενδέχεται να είναι λιγότερο ενήμεροι , όπως οι χαμηλόμισθοι ή τα άτομα με χαμηλή μόρφωση, ανταποκρίνονται περισσότερο στον αντίκτυπο σε μια μη αναμενόμενη αύξηση του επιτοκίου σε σχέση με αυτούς που είναι πιο ενήμεροι. The first chapter is entitled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Surprises''. This chapter examines how monetary policy surprises affect consumers' inflation expectations in euro area economies. A novel feature of our empirical approach is the estimation of monetary policy surprises based on changes in monetary policy that were unanticipated according to consumers' stated beliefs about the economy. We find such monetary policy surprises have the opposite impact on inflation expectations to those obtained under the assumption that consumers are well-informed. Relaxing the latter assumption by focusing on consumers' stated beliefs, unanticipated increases in the interest rate raise inflation expectations before the Crisis consistent with imperfect information theoretical settings where interest rate hikes are interpreted as positive news about the state of the economy by consumers that know policymakers have relatively more information. The second chapter is entitled “Firms' Expectations and Monetary Policy Shocks in the Eurozone''. This chapter investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on firms' selling price and production expectations utilizing a panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for ten euro-area economies for 1999:1 to 2018:6. To identify monetary policy shocks, I utilize narrative and high frequency instruments taking into account ECB announcements regarding its policy decisions. Our estimated impulse responses indicate that firms typically revise their expectations in a manner consistent with imperfect information theoretical settings, e.g., increasing their production and selling price expectations after an unanticipated interest rate hike. Interestingly, we observe an overshooting pattern where following the initial surprise that leads firms to raise (reduce) their production and selling expectations after an unanticipated interest rate hike (M1 expansion), firms gradually come to expect contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy shocks to eventually decrease (increase) production and then inflation, thus revise their expectations accordingly by decreasing (increasing) first their production expectations and then their selling price expectations in accordance with this learning experience over time. Finally, the third chapter is entitled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Shocks in the US''. In this chapter we continue our analysis on this field by focusing on consumers' inflation expectations in the United States. We use quantitative Survey data from the University of Michigan, instead of the qualitative data that is available for the Eurozone countries. Here, we find that consumers increase their inflation expectations after an unanticipated increase in federal funds rate irrespective of the assumption that we make regarding their information set. Moreover, in the case of the US, types of individuals that are likely to be less-informed such as low income (or low educated) or with a shorter horizon (those over 54 years of age), respond more on impact to an unanticipated increase in the interest rate as compared to more informed ones, in a manner consistent with an imperfect information setting.

Defence date: 13 May 2019 Examining Board: Prof. Philipp Genschel, European University Institute; Prof. Adrienne Héritier, European University Institute; Prof. C. Randall Henning, American University Washington D.C.; Prof. Manuela Moschella, Scuola Normale Superiore This article-based dissertation traces the institutional responses to the euro area crisis in the realm of fiscal and financial governance. First, it shows why the diffusion of national fiscal councils in the EU has not led to institutional isomorphism. The troika institutions - the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund - formed a technocratic consensus about the desirability of establishing national fiscal councils in the EU. Considerable disagreement existed, however, with regards to their design features. Each institution promoted a distinct fiscal council model in line with their institutional self-interest. Preference heterogeneity among the troika members ultimately prevented the spread of a one-size-fits-all fiscal council in the EU. Second, this thesis links three models of a fiscal council (agent, trustee and orchestrator) to three different sources of the deficit bias (i.e. forecasting errors, common pool problem, asymmetric information) and three different conceptions of legitimacy (input, output, throughput). Third, it explains why the ECB President started to visit national parliaments. The ECB’s unconventional monetary policy measures triggered unprecedented levels of public distrust, invigorated a fierce debate about central bank independence and led to deteriorating output legitimacy. Given the diverging demands from creditor and debtor states, the ECB saw an opportunity to reduce the audience costs of their policies by directly targeting national parliaments. Fourth, it shows how large cross-border banks stood to gain from the banking union because it would level the playing field, create regulatory savings and ultimately encroach on the business model of the smaller competitors that had, thus far, been shielded from competition through favorable regulation. Fifth, it discusses the European Stability Mechanism, the ECB, the proposed European Minister of Economics and Finance and the European Fiscal Board and relates them to strategies that supranational actors can pursue to deepen European integration. Chapter 2 draws upon an earlier article published in the JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies. Chapter 3 draws upon an earlier article published in the Journal of Contemporary European Research (JCER). Chapter 4 draws upon an earlier article published in the Journal of European Integration. Chapter 5 draws upon an earlier paper published in the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper Series. Chapter 6 draws upon an earlier paper published in the CERiM Online Paper Series.

Defence date: 20 July 2018 Examining Board: Professor Stefan Grundmann, European University Institute; Professor Klaus Heine, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Professor Giorgio Monti, European University Institute; Professor Pietro Sirena, Università commerciale Luigi Bocconi In the past 20 years, the European integration process has been mostly successful at establishing a single European market. However, no such success can be attributed to the establishment of an economic and monetary union. The recent financial and sovereign debt crisis dramatically exposed all the flaws and weaknesses of this ambitious project, which led the European Union into a deep economic and political crisis. In this context, the task of scholars and academics should be to explore new effective and efficient alternative in order to strengthen and create “a more perfect union”. On these premises and considerations, the present research will analyze the current legal framework of the European Monetary Union in order to assess and understand its success, and explore possible alternative institutional designs which could be more effective in achieving its objectives and, at the same time, be potentially more efficient and legittimate. More in details, after examining in the first chapter, the origin and evolution of the economic and monetary integration from its very foundation, and, in the second chapter, the current legal structure of the economic union; the last and third chapter represents the normative claim of thesis. In an attempt to reconcile both law and economics, this normative part will involve a balancing exercise between the economic concepts of effectiveness and efficiency, and the legal concepts of legitimacy. The analysis will first understand and assess the effectiveness of the present governance structure. We will argue that the fundamental problem of the present governance structure is given by its many internal inconsistencies. On these premises, we will claim that it is possible to design an alternative regime which could potentially solve such issues and thus be more effective. The resulting three different alternative regimes will then be compared and evaluated in terms of their efficiency, according to the new institutional economics approach. The purpose of the efficiency evaluation is not to identify the single most efficient system of governance, but rather to understand the distinctive strenghts and weaknesses of the various alternatives in comparison with the current structure. Ultimately, the chapter will also evaluate the current EMU structure under a legitimacy standpoint. In particular, it will try to assess and understand whether these potentially more effective and efficient alternative arrangements would also improve the EMU under a legitimacy standpoint.

Includes bibliographical references. Number of sources in the bibliography: 209 Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Cyprus, Faculty of Humanities, Department of English Studies, 2017. The University of Cyprus Library holds the printed form of the thesis. Η παρούσα ερευνά το φαινόμενο του test washback (αναδραστική επίδραση αξιολογικών κριτηρίων). Συγκεκριμένα επικεντρώνεται στην διδακτική μεθοδολογία που χρησιμοποιούν οι καθηγητές σε τάξεις στις οποίες προετοιμάζουν μαθητές για την απόκτηση πιστοποίησης γλωσσομάθειας. Η μελέτη των παραγόντων που επηρεάζει τους καθηγητές στην διδακτική τους μεθοδολογία, δείχνει ότι η αναδραστική επίδραση αξιολογικών κριτηρίων είναι ένα πολύπλοκο φαινόμενο με πολλούς παράγοντες που αλληλεπιδρούν. Η μελέτη περίπτωσης που ερευνήθηκε είναι τάξεις προετοιμασίας για την απόκτηση πιστοποίησης γλωσσομάθειας στην Ελλάδα, οι οποίες παρουσιάζουν μεγάλο ενδιαφέρον, όσον αφορά στην προετοιμασία εξετάσεων για την απόκτηση πιστοποίησης. Στην παρούσα διατριβή χρησιμοποιείται η ορολογία multi-exam classes (τάξεις πολλαπλών εξετάσεων). Η συγκεκριμένη ορολογία προσδιορίζει τις τάξεις προετοιμασίας για την απόκτηση πολλών και διαφορετικών πιστοποιητικών στην ίδια τάξη εφόσον οι μαθητές λαμβάνουν μέρος σε πάνω από μια πιστοποίηση στην ίδια εξεταστική περίοδο. Επομένως, οι καθηγητές στις τάξεις προετοιμασίας πολλών εξετάσεων (multi-exam) αναγκάζονται να προετοιμάσουν και να διδάξουν σε μαθητές για δυο ή ακόμα τρεις ή και τέσσερις πιστοποιήσεις στην ίδια τάξη με διαφορετική μορφή εξέτασης. Η κύρια ερευνητική ερώτηση είναι πως το πλαίσιο πολλών εξετάσεων (multi-exam) επηρεάζει την διδακτική μεθοδολογία που χρησιμοποιούν οι καθηγητές. Η απάντηση στην ερώτηση είναι αποτέλεσμα δυο διαφορετικών μεθόδων της μελέτης περίπτωσης και του ενός ερωτηματολογίου. Οι μελέτες περίπτωσης περιελάμβαναν καθηγητές Αγγλικών σε ένα φροντιστήριο στην Ελλάδα, ενώ το ερωτηματολόγιο διανεμήθηκε σε καθηγητές Αγγλικών από όλη την Ελλάδα. Διενεργήθηκαν ποιοτικές και ποσοτικές ερευνητικές διαδικασίες για την συγκέντρωση των αποτελεσμάτων. Η διδακτική μεθοδολογία δύο καθηγητών που προετοιμάζουν μαθητές για πιστοποιήσεις ερευνήθηκε στην μελέτη περίπτωσης (case-study) μέσω συνεντεύξεων, παρατηρήσεων των μαθημάτων (classroom observation) και συμπληρωματικών συνεντεύξεων (follow-up interviews). Η μελέτη περίπτωσης εστιάζει όχι μόνο σε τάξεις πολλών εξετάσεων (multi-exam) αλλά και σε τάξεις προετοιμασίας για ένα μόνο πιστοποιητικό (one-exam). Συγκεκριμένα η παρούσα έρευνα μελετά σε ποιο βαθμό επηρεάζεται η διδακτική μεθοδολογία των καθηγητών από τη φύση και τις απαιτήσεις των πολλαπλών εξετάσεων τάξεων. Το ερωτηματολόγιο παρέχει πληροφορίες για τους παράγοντες που επηρεάζουν τους καθηγητές να επιλέξουν συγκεκριμένες παιδαγωγικές μεθόδους στις τάξεις προετοιμασίας εξετάσεων. Η ανάλυση των δεδομένων δείχνει ότι ο βαθμός και το είδος της αναδραστικής επίδρασης των εξετάσεων (washback) επηρεάζεται από την μορφή (format) της εξέτασης, τον αριθμό των εξετάσεων μέσα στην τάξη, την σχολική περίοδο (το τρίμηνο) και άλλους παράγοντες άμεσα (teacher-direct factors) και έμμεσα συνδεδεμένους (teacher-indirect factors) με τον καθηγητή. Το γεγονός ότι υπάρχει ποικιλία εξετάσεων με διαφορετική μορφή και διαφορετικές απαιτήσεις και η δυνατότητα των μαθητών να παίρνουν μέρος σε περισσότερες από μια μορφή εξέτασης μπορεί να μειώσει την αναδραστική επίδραση (washback) και να προάγει την μάθηση της γλώσσας. Με αυτόν τον τρόπο οι καθηγητές μπορούν να έχουν περισσότερες ευκαιρίες να χρησιμοποιήσουν διαφορετικές διδακτικές μεθόδους. Ωστόσο, ο καθηγητής παραμένει ένας καθοριστικός παράγοντας που καταδεικνύει πόσο σημαντικό είναι για τους καθηγητές να συμμετέχουν στην αξιολόγηση των μαθητών. Τα ευρήματα της μελέτης αυτής προφέρουν στους καθηγητές γλωσσών, στους εξεταστικούς οργανισμούς, εκπαιδευτές καθηγητών, συγγραφείς βιβλίων και εκδότες, ιδέες άμεσα σχετιζόμενες με τις ανάγκες τους This research offers new insights into the phenomenon of test washback by focusing on the teaching practices in exam preparation classes. An exploration of the factors influencing teachers how to teach shows that washback is a complex phenomenon with several intervening factors. The case study examined exam preparation classes in Greece which present an interesting pedagogical ecology regarding exam preparation. The term multi-exam class will be used in the current thesis. It is defined as the exam preparation classes where a variety of exams are taught since students often participate in more than one exam in the same exam period. Thus, teachers in multi-exam preparation classes are forced to teach and prepare students for two or even three or four exams in the same class. The main research question is how the multi-exam context influences the teaching practices that teacher use. A distinction is made among ‘methods’, ‘activities’ and ‘tasks’ when studying teachers’ methodology. Two different methods are used to address the question: a case study and a questionnaire, which employed teachers of English teaching in a frontistirio and/or privately. Both qualitative and quantitative data collection procedures were followed. In the case study, interviews, classroom observations and follow-up interviews of two teachers teaching exam preparation classes in the same school are used to elicit information on the nature and type of teaching practices the teachers use to prepare students for exams. The case study compares one exam and multi-exam classes and looks into the extent to which the teachers’ approaches are influenced by the nature and requirements of multi-exam classes. The questionnaire provides information about the factors that influence teachers to choose specific teaching practices in exam preparation classes. Findings show that degrees and kinds of washback seem to be influenced by the type of the exam, the number of exams in preparation classes, the school term and other teacher-direct and teacher-indirect factors. Preparing students for a range of exam options with different formats can reduce washback and promote language learning. In this way, teachers can have more opportunities to use different teaching practices. The teacher remains a significant and influential agent, showing how important it is for teachers to get involved in assessment and develop their language assessment literacy. This study contributes by incorporating a teacher’s voice which, so far, has been absent from the local and national levels, providing valuable information regarding the role of teachers in reforming testing and enhancing classroom practices. The study offers language teachers, teacher trainers, examination bodies and material writers and publishers, insights directly relevant to their needs. The study finally indicates that by investigating not only the roles of stakeholders but also the broad sociocultural and educational context the washback issue can be fully accounted for.

Defence date: 16 June 2017 Examining Board: Professor Bruno De Witte, EUI (Supervisor); Professor Deirdre Curtin, EUI; Professor Fabian Amtenbrink, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Professor Mark Dawson, Hertie School of Governance Berlin Prior to the euro, the topics of constitutional law and monetary policy rarely overlapped. Money was regulated, on the national level, through the ordinary legislative procedures. For European monetary union, the use of constitutional law was nevertheless attractive because it meant that the MS would be in control of the negotiation process, because it enabled a very independent central bank and because it kept the MS in control over the future of the euro. The lack of trust among MS to share a currency was overcome by an abundant trust in law. As the euro was negotiated as a constitutional currency, this created specific opportunities and obstacles for the different parts of the EMU. Once the euro finally came into existence, the constitutional framework of the euro proved remarkably stable for the first decade and a half. After the excitement of Maastricht, monetary policy very quickly became boring again, in no small part due to constitutional law. Unfortunately, EMU primary law was quite successful. During the euro-crisis, EMU primary law shaped the responses to the crisis by placing fewer obstacles on some routes to change than on others. As the crisis developed, some conflicts became the topic of much legal debate and even judicial decisions, whilst other parts of euro-crisis law met with few objections, despite some legally problematic aspects. The possibilities for further reform of the Eurozone without treaty change are then largely the result of the process of reform until now. Chapter 3 ‘The constitutional Euro' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as a working paper 'The variable geometry of the eurocrisis: a look at the non-euro area Member States' (2015), 2015/33 EUI Working Paper Law. Chapter 1 ‘Monetary policy and constitutional law before the euro' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as a contribution 'Maastricht revisited: economic constitutionalism the ECB and the Bundesbank' (2014) in the book ‘The constitutionalization of European budgetary constraints’ The conclusion of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as an article 'EU law for a new generation?' (2016) in the journal ‘International journal of constitutional law’

Defence date: 6 June 2017 Examining Board: Professor Sven Steinmo, European University Institute (Supervisor); Professor Mark Blyth, Brown University; Professor Philipp Genschel, European University Institute; Professor Leonard Seabrooke, Copenhagen Business School For all its powers, we know little about how the European Central Bank (ECB) makes its decisions and why. In light of its ever-increasing importance in European governance and the criticism this has attracted, this is particularly regrettable. Often a welcome scapegoat, the ECB has been accused of doing first too little, then too late. Compared to other major central banks, the ECB has indeed long been a laggard – regarding both conventional interest rate policies and unconventional balance sheet operations. Why? I argue that central bankers’ policy experiments after the financial crisis are a prime example of policymaking under conditions of Knightian uncertainty. Faced with an unprecedented situation, central bankers were unable to draw on historical experience and had to resort to their beliefs about how the economy works instead. Based on a survey among 422 central bank economists, I quantify these different ways of thinking. My survey data shows a) that certain beliefs matter for policy preferences and b) that both are unevenly distributed among central banks. In particular, the ECB leans more towards orthodox beliefs and hawkish inflation preferences than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It is considerably more conservative. Within the Eurosystem, different national central banks are clustered regarding both beliefs and preferences, revealing a dividing line in economic philosophy between core and periphery. This suggests that the frequently surfacing conflicts inside the ECB’s Governing Council reflect a battle of ideas rather than a conflict of interests between creditor and debtor states. Proponents of activist monetary policy at the ECB had to overcome enormous resistance from within before they could follow the examples set by others. I argue that this is why the ECB first did too little to support the economy, and only changed its orthodox stance very late.

Includes bibliographical references. Number of sources in the bibliography: 72 Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Cyprus, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, 2016. The University of Cyprus Library holds the printed form of the thesis. Η παρούσα διατριβή διερευνά τις διαφορές τιμών στην ΕΕ και την ύπαρξη ομάδων σύγκλισης τιμών σε όλη την υδρόγειο. Πρώτα, εξετάζουμε τους καθοριστικούς παράγοντες και την εξέλιξη της διασποράς τιμών των εμπορευμάτων σε όλη την Ευρώπη με την πάροδο του χρόνου. Βρίσκουμε ότι η εμπορευσιμότητα και οι μη – εμπορεύσιμες εισροές παίζουν σημαντικά μικρότερο ρόλο στην διασπορά τιμών μεταξύ των χωρών μετά την υιοθέτηση του ευρώ, και για τις οικονομίες στην Ευρωζώνη (ΕΖ) σε σύγκρισή με αυτά της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης (ΕΕ). Στην συνέχεια, συγκρίνουμε τις κατανομές των αποκλίσεων του νόμου της μιας τιμής (LOP) με την πάροδο του χρόνου και ανακαλύπτουμε ότι οι κατανομές μετά την υιοθέτηση του ευρώ είναι συνήθως στατιστικά διαφορετικές σε σύγκριση με αυτά πριν την υιοθέτηση, συνεπής με την ολοκλήρωση σε μεγάλο βαθμό. Επιπλέον, διαπιστώνουμε ότι οι αποκλίσεις του νόμου μιας τιμής (LOP) συσχετίζονται σημαντικά για τους ορίζοντες των πέντε ή δέκα ετών, και οι συσχετίσεις παραμένουν σημαντικά υψηλές για μεγάλους χρονικούς ορίζοντες. Αυτές οι συσχετίσεις είναι μεγάλες για ομοιογενείς σε σχέση με τα διαφοροποιημένα αγαθά, και ποικίλουν από χώρα σε χώρα. Για τις περισσότερες αυτές ευρωπαϊκές οικονομίες και αγαθά, πλεονέκτημα τιμής συνήθως φαίνεται να είναι πιο επίμονο από ότι μειονέκτημα τιμής. Κατόπιν, εξετάζουμε τις αποκλίσεις από τον νόμο μίας τιμής για την περίπτωση της Κύπρου σε σχέση με την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση (Ε.Ε.) μεταξύ 2005 και 2010 για να κατανοήσουμε το ρόλο που διαδραματίζει η διαδικασία υιοθέτησης του ευρώ για αυτή τη συγκεκριμένη χώρα. Συμπεραίνουμε ότι πρώτον, η Κυπριακή οικονομία παρουσίασε σημαντικά αυξημένο βαθμό ολοκλήρωσης εν σχέση με χώρες της Ε.Ε. μεταξύ 2005 και 2010, και δεύτερον, η Κύπρος έγινε σχετικά φθηνότερη κατά αυτήν την περίοδο. Από το 2010 η εμπειρική κατανομή αποκλίσεων από τον νόμο μίας τιμής για την Κύπρο γίνεται στατιστικά ίδια με αυτή χωρών του πυρήνα της ΕΖ όπως η Γερμανία. Αυτό συνάδει με ένα γρήγορο ρυθμό προσαρμογής των σχετικών τιμών κατά την διαδικασία υιοθέτησης του ευρώ, καταδεικνύοντας και τον ψηλό βαθμό προσαρμοστικότητας της Κυπριακής οικονομίας. Τέλος, εξετάζουμε την ύπαρξη ομάδων σύγκλισης στον μηχανισμό τιμών της κάθε χώρας για 96 αγαθά σε επίπεδο τιμών λιανικής πώλησης για 40 χώρες όπου τα δεδομένα είναι διαθέσιμα σε εξαμηνιαία βάση από 1990 – 2010, χρησιμοποιώντας μη γραμμικό μοντέλο παράγοντα και εργαλεία παλινδρόμησης ορίων (threshold regression). Αυτό το άρθρο είναι το πρώτο, το οποίο βρίσκει ισχυρή ένδειξη για την ύπαρξη ομάδων σύγκλισης για τιμές λιανικής πώλησης . Βρίσκουμε ότι οι χώρες οι οποίες είναι πιο κοντά στους πιθανούς εμπορικούς εταίρους συγκλίνουν ταχύτερα από ότι οι χώρες στον τομέα της υψηλής απόστασης αν η αρχική παραγωγικότητα εργασίας είναι χαμηλή ή αν έχουν χαμηλό αρχικό εισόδημα, και οι χώρες με χαμηλή αρχική παραγωγικότητα εργασίας συγκλίνουν ταχύτερα από ότι οι χώρες που βρίσκονται στο τομέα υψηλής παραγωγικότητας αν χαρακτηρίζονται από χαμηλή μέση απόσταση από τους εμπορικούς εταίρους. Ερμηνεύουμε τα αποτελέσματα μας ως ένδειξη για την ύπαρξη τοπικού νόμου της μιας τιμής λόγω της ύπαρξης εμπόδιων για την σύγκλιση τιμών The present dissertation investigates price differences in the EU and the existence of price convergence clubs across the globe. First, we study the determinants and the evolution of goods price dispersion across Europe over time. We find that tradeability and non-traded inputs play a significantly smaller role for cross-country price dispersion after the adoption of the euro, and for Eurozone (EZ) economies as compared to European Union (EU) ones. We then compare the distributions of law-of-one-price (LOP) deviations over time and reveal that the distributions after the euro are typically significantly different than those before, consistent with a greater degree of integration. Moreover, we find that LOP deviations are highly correlated over five or ten year horizons, and correlations remain significantly high over longer horizons. These correlations are greater for homogeneous as compared to differentiated goods, and vary across countries. For most of these European economies and goods, price advantage is typically revealed to be more persistent than price disadvantage. Then, we analyse cross-sectional LOP deviations for the case of Cyprus relative to the EU in 2005 and 2010 in order to understand the role played by the process of monetary unification for this particular economy. We infer that Cyprus became significantly more integrated with EU economies between 2005 and 2010, and relatively cheaper during this period. By 2010, the empirical distribution for Cyprus becomes statistically indistinguishable from that of core EZ economies like Germany, implying a fast pace of relative price adjustment for Cyprus during the process of euro adoption and indicative of the high degree of flexibility characterizing the Cypriot economy. Finally, we investigate the existence of convergence clubs in the cross-country price mechanism for 96 individual goods retail price levels across 40 countries available semi-annually for 1990-2010, using a nonlinear factor model and threshold regression tools. This is the first paper to find strong evidence for club convergence of retail prices. We find that countries that are physically closer to potential trade partners converge faster than countries in the high distance regime if they have low initial labor productivity or low initial income, and countries with low initial productivity converge faster than those in the high productivity regime if characterized by low average distance from trade partners. We interpret our findings as evidence of a local law of one price due to barriers to price convergence that influence the duration of the effect of price shocks.

The paper examines the unconventional monetary policy programs and measures, implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB). The research is focused on covering their effects on the non-Euro Area Member States of the European Union (EU). The main purpose of the paper is to conduct an econometric study on the effects of the ECB’s non-standard measures on the government bond yields of the countries, part of the EU, but outside the Eurozone, through the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The study is dedicated to the empirical study on the dynamics and the relations between the key interest rates and the government bond yields of Bulgaria, Denmark, United Kingdom, Poland, Romania, Croatia, Czech Republic and Sweden. The observed period spreads from January 2010 to December 2016, with the use of monthly data. The aggregated results from the constructed econometric models for the non-Euro area EU Member States show that between 95% and 98,5% of the changes in the government bond yield can be explained by the changes in the levels of the Euro Over Night Index Average(EONIA) - an interest rate factor, and by the time – the second factor in the model. The results also show that at EONIA fixed rates the yield on the long-term government bonds can vary from -0,025 percentage points to -0,068 percentage points monthly. Conclusions and proposals are made, concerning the interest rates in the Eurozone and in the EU, in the context of the unconventional monetary policy, conducted by the ECB – one of the world’s major central banks., peer-reviewed

Award date: 30 November 2016 Supervisor: Claire Kilpatrick

This paper describes MEDSEA, a compact small open economy DSGE model of the Maltese economy. The model is similar in nature to other small open economy models, thus containing a number of nominal and real frictions allowing the model to replicate the sluggish reaction of economic variables documented in empirical research. Moreover, MEDSEA contains key modifications designed to account for Malta’s specific characteristics. The model distinguishes between a tradable and non-tradable sector reflecting the different nature of exports when compared to other production meant for domestic use. Furthermore, the model features distribution costs in the export sector allowing for a wedge to exist between wholesale and retail export prices. In light of Malta’s membership of the European Monetary Union, MEDSEA includes an exogenously set nominal interest rate and exchange rate. The model is calibrated in order to match the key ratios observed in Maltese data. This model, together with its future extensions is meant to be used as a complement to existing policy analysis tools available at the Central Bank of Malta., N/A

Aiming to speak to broader debates about the nature of state power in relation to the economy this thesis concentrates on central bank agency and monetary governability. More specifically, it focuses on a single case: The agency of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the making, unmaking, and re-making of monetary governability in the euro area from 1999 through 2014. This choice is motivated by the euro area representing a unique ‘natural experiment’ in establishing monetary governability from scratch under conditions of 21st century financialised capitalism. The thesis is divided into two parts. Chapters one and two develop an original analytical and conceptual framework for the study of central bank agency. Starting out from the premise that governability is not a natural feature of the economy but needs to be actively established, I argue that any attempt to answer the question of the ECB’s role in that process has to account for the fundamental hybridity of central bank agency both as a central bureaucratic authority and as a bank, as well as for its multidimensionality as it addresses different governability challenges posed by different audiences. It is on the basis of these inductively won observations that I embrace the theoretical vocabulary of performativity, conceptualising governability as a performative effect of the interactions between the ECB and its audiences. The arrangements that govern these interactions are described, using a Foucauldian concept, as ‘apparatuses’. On that basis, the second part of the thesis comprises three empirical chapters on the financial apparatus of monetary policy implementation, the communicative apparatus of expectation management, and the ideological apparatus of monetary trust. The sixth chapter brings the analysis of the three apparatuses up to date by focusing on three key episodes from the recent financial and economic crisis., Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales, info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This paper analyses the start of the debt crisis in Europe and in Spain, which increased inflation, unemployment and public debt. Although Spanish banking system was considered one of the best, the growing debt brought Spain into one of the worst affected countries in financial crisis. Because of this, Spain was faced to the fiscal consolidation as the imperative for further development. The strength of the crisis in Spain can be seen from main economic indicators. Budget deficit in Spain was almost 12% just two years after it went into surplus for the first time in 30 year period. Public debt has started to rise from 2007 and in 2013 it overcomes 90% of GDP. The rate of unemployment also started to rise from 2007 and in 2013 it is higher than 25%. This paper analyses also Phillips curve in Spain using the actual data after the start of fiscal consolidation., peer-reviewed

This note provides an account of the major milestones in the evolution of the economic governance in the European monetary union, assessing the reforms in governance frameworks of the EMU from 1997 up to mid-2013. It mainly focuses on the post-2010 reforms, where the financial crisis and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis exposed the weakness of the economic governance framework of EMU in Europe. It also highlights the on-going proposals for further coordination and cooperation that have been brought forward but still require agreement among Member States. The note suggests that while the commitment shown to introduce stricter fiscal rules and enhanced surveillance was a necessary step forward for sustaining the credibility of the single European currency, further reforms focusing on deepening European integration are still needed., N/A

In this article we propose to review some aspects of the relationship between price stability and financial stability in the current economic context. It is acknowledged that monetary policy of the EUROSYSTEM still have as the main objective the price stability, this being one of the most important ways of supporting sustainable economic growth. Although there are many theoretical approaches of the price stability concept all converging towards the idea of measuring and control of permanent inflation. Financial stability can be seen in the broad sense as the situation in which the financial system may ensure the efficient allocation of savings to investment opportunities and may face the shock without major disruptions. Viewed from this perspective the increased complementarity between price stability and financial stability is associated with economic globalization and, in particular, eliminating impediments to the free movement of capital flows. On the other hand the financial stability may be defined as a situation characterized by the absence of banking crises and by the existence of a certain level of price stability of the assets, including interest rates., peer-reviewed

Defence date: 11 March 2005 Examining board: Prof. Mike Artis, supervisor, EUI ; Prof. Keith Cuthbertson, CASS Business School ; Prof. Marcello de Cecco, Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa ; Prof. Helmut Lütkepohl, EUI PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017 -- Money in Britain : a cointegration analysis -- The contribution of monetary factors to low growth in EMU : the case of Germany, France and Italy -- Public debt and long-term interest rates : the case of Germany, France and Italy

The high degree of sustainable nominal convergence between EMU member states have not implied a corresponding degree of real and structural convergence. Still existing structural asymmetries in the monetary union, which is not an Optimum Currency Area, are bound to broaden due to continuous enlargement of Europe, giving rise to various kinds of shocks and divergences, poor economic performance in some member countries and to Europe as a whole. This paper examines the potential sources of asymmetries, which to a large extend determine the exposure to asymmetric shocks, or asymmetrical effects stemming from symmetric shocks. We also analyze available adjustment mechanisms and appropriate policy instruments in EMU’s economic reality. Using a set of economic indicators we investigate how some product and labor market rigidities affect in an adverse way macroeconomic performance in EMU. Having restricted the fiscal room for maneuver under the Stability and Growth Pact, existing asymmetries and structural rigidities call for a speed-up of structural reforms, as the only way to growth and prosperity., peer-reviewed

Αντικειμενικός σκοπός της παρούσας διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι να αναλύσει την πορεία της δημιουργία του νέου ευρωπαϊκού νομίσματος, του ευρώ, σαν αποτέλεσμα της οικονομικής και νομισματικής ένωσης στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, την πορεία της συναλλαγματικής του ισοτιμίας ειδικότερα σε σχέση με το αμερικανικό δολάριο κατά τα δύο πρώτα χρόνια της ένταξής του και τη δυναμικότητά του για τη κατάκτηση κυρίαρχης θέσης ως διεθνές νόμισμα στο παγκόσμιο νομισματικό σύστημα. Τέλος παρουσιάζονται οι επιπτώσεις που υπάρχουν στο ευρωπαϊκό τραπεζικό σύστημα λόγω της υιοθέτησης του ευρώ και γενικότερα της πορείας προς την οικονομική και νομισματική ολοκλήρωση.