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The study examines the complex impact of climatic patterns, driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on regional climate, hydrology, and sea surface temperatures. Focused on the period from 2003 to 2012, the research specifically investigates the influence of thermal variability on decapod larval communities. Monthly zooplanktonic sampling conducted at the Mondego Estuary, Portugal, entrance over a decade revealed the prevalence of Carcinus maenas, Diogenes pugilator, and Pachigrapsus marmoratus larvae. These assemblages displayed notable interannual and seasonal fluctuations, often corresponding with changes in sea surface temperatures. Significant system shifts around 2007, instigated by the large-scale NAO, led to subsequent modifications in sea surface temperature and decapod larvae communities' dynamics. Post-2007, there was an upward trajectory in both species' abundance and richness. Phenologically during the former period, the community exhibited two abundance peaks, with the earlier peak occurring sooner, attributed to heightened temperatures instead of the unique peak exhibited before 2007. The research further elucidated the occurrences of Marine Heatwaves (MHW) in the region, delving into their temporal progression influenced by the NAO. Although water temperature emerged as a crucial factor influencing decapod larvae communities annually and seasonally, the study did not observe discernible impacts of MHW events on these communities. These communities represent essential trophic links and are crucial for the survival success of adult decapods. Given the rapid pace of climate change and increasing temperatures, it is imperative to assess whether these environmental shifts, particularly in thermal conditions, affect these meroplanktonic communities., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The uprising interest in gelatinous zooplankton populations must cope with a lack of robust time series of direct abundance observations in most of the ecosystems because of the difficulties in sampling small, fragile organisms, and of the dismissal of jellyfish as a nuisance. Most of the hypotheses about their dynamics are built on a few species and ecosystems and extended to the whole group, but the blooms are registered mainly for the members of the Class Scyphozoa that dwell in temperate, shallow waters. Within the scyphozoans, our knowledge about their phenology relies mainly on laboratory experiences. Here we present a long-term analysis of the phenology and life cycle of three scyphozoan species in an ecosystem affected by eutrophication in a climate change context. We have found that the phenology is directed by temperature, but not modified by different thermal and ecological regimes., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Dispersal shapes population connectivity and plays a critical role in marine metacommunities. Prominent species for coastal socioecological systems, such as jellyfish and spiny lobsters, feature long pelagic dispersal phases (LPDPs), which have long been overlooked. Here, we use a cross-scale approach combining field surveys of these species with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model to decipher the underlying mechanisms of LPDP patterns in northwestern Mediterranean shores. We identified basin-scale prevailing dispersal routes and synchronic year-to-year patterns tightly linked to prominent circulation features typical of marginal seas and semienclosed basins, with an outstanding role of a retentive source area replenishing shores and potentially acting as a pelagic nursery area. We show how the atmospheric forcing of the ocean, a marked hydrological driver of the Mediterranean Sea, modulates dispersal routes and sources of LPDP at interannual scales. These findings represent a crucial advance in our understanding of the functioning of metapopulations of species with LPDP in marginal seas and may contribute to the effective management of coastal ecosystem services in the face of climate change., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Seawater Mg:Ca and Sr:Ca ratios are biogeochemical parameters reflecting the Earth-ocean-atmosphere dynamic exchange of elements. The ratios' dependence on the environment and organisms' biology facilitates their application in marine sciences. Here, we present a measured single-laboratory dataset, combined with previous data, to test the assumption of limited seawater Mg:Ca and Sr:Ca variability across marine environments globally. High variability was found in open-ocean upwelling and polar regions, shelves/neritic and river-influenced areas, where seawater Mg:Ca and Sr:Ca ratios range from ∼4.40 to 6.40 mmol:mol and ∼6.95 to 9.80 mmol:mol, respectively. Open-ocean seawater Mg:Ca is semiconservative (∼4.90 to 5.30 mol:mol), while Sr:Ca is more variable and nonconservative (∼7.70 to 8.80 mmol:mol); both ratios are nonconservative in coastal seas. Further, the Ca, Mg, and Sr elemental fluxes are connected to large total alkalinity deviations from International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) standard values. Because there is significant modern seawater Mg:Ca and Sr:Ca ratios variability across marine environments we cannot absolutely assume that fossil archives using taxa-specific proxies reflect true global seawater chemistry but rather taxa- and process-specific ecosystem variations, reflecting regional conditions. This variability could reconcile secular seawater Mg:Ca and Sr:Ca ratio reconstructions using different taxa and techniques by assuming an error of 1 to 1.50 mol:mol, and 1 to 1.90 mmol:mol, respectively. The modern ratios' variability is similar to the reconstructed rise over 20 Ma (Neogene Period), nurturing the question of seminonconservative behavior of Ca, Mg, and Sr over modern Earth geological history with an overlooked environmental effect., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

The proliferation of invasive marine species is often explained by a lack of predators and opportunistic life history traits. For the invasive comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi, it has remained unclear how this now widely distributed species is able to overcome long periods of low food availability, particularly in their northernmost exotic habitats in Eurasia. Based on both field and laboratory evidence, we show that adult comb jellies in the western Baltic Sea continue building up their nutrient reserves after emptying the prey field through a shift to cannibalizing their own larvae. We argue, that by creating massive late summer blooms, the population can efficiently empty the prey field, outcompete intraguild competitors, and use the bloom events to build nutrient reserves for critical periods of prey scarcity. Our finding that cannibalism makes a species with typical opportunistic traits more resilient to environmental fluctuations is important for devising more effective conservation strategies.

Harmful invader ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi's expansions in the Eurasian Seas, its spatio-temporal population dynamics depending on environmental conditions in recipient habitats have been synthesized. M. leidyi found suitable temperature, salinity and productivity conditions in the temperate and subtropical environments of the semi-enclosed seas, in the coastal areas of open basins and in closed water bodies, where it created autonomous populations. M. leidyi changes its phenology depending on seasonal temperature regime in different environments. We assessed ranges of sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity and sea surface chlorophyll values, sufficient for M. leidyi general occurrence and reproduction based on comprehensive long-term datasets, contributed by co-authors. This assessment revealed that there are at least two eco-types (Southern and Northern) in the recipient seas of Eurasia with features specific for their donor areas. The range of thresholds for M. leidyi establishment, occurrence and life cycle in both eco-types depends on variability of environmental parameters in their native habitats., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Shallow hydrothermal vents are of pivotal relevance for ocean biogeochemical cycles, including seawater dissolved heavy metals and trace elements as well as the carbonate system balance. The Kueishan Tao (KST) stratovolcano off Taiwan is associated with numerous hydrothermal vents emitting warm sulfur-rich fluids at so-called White Vents (WV) and Yellow Vent (YV) that impact the surrounding seawater masses and habitats. The morphological and biogeochemical consequences caused by a M5.8 earthquake and a C5 typhoon ("Nepartak") hitting KST (12 th May, and 2 nd -10 th July, 2016) were studied within a 10-year time series (2009-2018) combining aerial drone imagery, technical diving, and hydrographic surveys. The catastrophic disturbances triggered landslides that reshaped the shoreline, burying the seabed and, as a consequence, native sulfur accretions that were abundant on the seafloor disappeared. A significant reduction in venting activity and fluid flow was observed at the high-temperature YV. Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) maxima in surrounding seawater reached 3000-5000 µmol kg -1 , and Total Alkalinity (TA) drawdowns were below 1500-1000 µmol kg -1 lasting for one year. A strong decrease and, in some cases, depletion of dissolved elements (Cd, Ba, Tl, Pb, Fe, Cu, As) including Mg and Cl in seawater from shallow depths to the open ocean followed the disturbance, with a recovery of Mg and Cl to pre-disturbance concentrations in 2018. The WV and YV benthic megafauna exhibited mixed responses in their skeleton Mg:Ca and Sr:Ca ratios, not always following directions of seawater chemical changes. Over 70% of the organisms increased skeleton Mg:Ca ratio during rising DIC (higher CO 2 ) despite decreasing seawater Mg:Ca ratios showing a high level of resilience. KST benthic organisms have historically co-existed with such events providing them ecological advantages under extreme conditions. The sudden and catastrophic changes observed at the KST site profoundly reshaped biogeochemical processes in shallow and offshore waters for one year, but they remained transient in nature, with a possible recovery of the system within two years.

In high-latitude marine environments, primary producers and their consumers show seasonal peaks of abundance in response to annual light cycle, water column stability and nutrient availability. Predatory species have adapted to this pattern by synchronising life-history events such as reproduction with prey availability. However, changing temperatures may pose unprecedented challenges by decoupling the predator-prey interactions. Here we build a predator-prey model accounting for the full life-cycle of fish and zooplankton including their phenology. The model assumes that fish production is bottom-up controlled by zooplankton prey abundance and match or mismatch between predator and prey phenology, and is parameterised based on empirical findings of how climate influences phenology and prey abundance. With this model, we project possible climate-warming effects on match-mismatch dynamics in Arcto-boreal and temperate biomes. We find a strong dependence on synchrony with zooplankton prey in the Arcto-boreal fish population, pointing towards a possible pronounced population decline with warming because of frequent desynchronization with its zooplankton prey. In contrast, the temperate fish population appears better able to track changes in prey timing and hence avoid strong population decline. These results underline that climate change may enhance the risks of predator-prey seasonal asynchrony and fish population declines at higher latitudes.

Planktonic ciliates constitute a fundamental component among microzooplankton and play a prominent role in carbon transport at the base of marine food webs. How these organisms respond to shifting environmental regimes is unclear and constitutes a current challenge under global ocean changes. Here we examine a multiannual field survey covering 25 years in the Bahía Blanca Estuary (Argentina), a shallow, flood-plain system dominated by wind and tidal energy. We found that the estuary experienced marked changes in wind dominant regimes and an increase in water turbidity driven from the joint effect of persistent long-fetch winds and the indirect effect of the Southern Annular Mode. Along with these changes, we found that zooplankton components, i.e. ciliates and the dominant estuarine copepod Acartia tonsa, showed a negative trend during the period 1986-2011. We showed that the combined effects of wind and turbidity with other environmental variables (chlorophyll, salinity and nutrients) consistently explained the variability of observed shifts. Tintinnids were more vulnerable to wind patterns and turbidity while showed a loss of synchrony with primary productivity. Water turbidity produced a dome-like pattern on tintinnids, oligotrichs and A. tonsa, implying that the highest abundance of organisms occurred under moderate values (∼50 NTU) of turbidity. In contrast, the response to wind patterns was not generalizable probably owing to species-specific traits. Observed trends denote that wind-induced processes in shallow ecosystems with internal sources of suspended sediments, are essential on ciliate dynamics and that such effects can propagate trough the interannual variability of copepods., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate variability plays a central role in the dynamics of marine pelagic ecosystems shaping the structure and abundance changes of plankton communities, thereby affecting energy pathways and biogeochemical fluxes in the ocean. Here we have investigated complex interactions driven a climate-hydrology-plankton system in the southern East China Sea over the period 2000 to 2012. In particular, we aimed at quantifying the influence of climate phenomena playing out in tropical (El Nino 3.4) and middle-high latitudes (East Asia Winter Monsoon, EAWM, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) on pelagic copepods. We found that the EAWM and El Nino 3.4 showed a non-stationary and non-linear relationship with local temperature variability. In the two cases, the strength of the relationship, as indexed by the wavelet coherence analysis, decreased along with the positive phase of the PDO. Likewise, the influence of EAWM and El Nino3.4 on copepods exhibited a non-stationary link that changed along with the PDO state. Indeed, copepods and EAWM were closely related during the positive phase, while the link copepods-El Nino 3.4 was stronger during the negative phase. Our results pointed out cascading effects from climate to plankton driven by the positive phase of the PDO through its effect on temperature conditions, and likely through a larger southward transport of nutrient-rich water masses to northern Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait. We suggest a chain of mechanisms whereby the PDO shapes interannual dynamics of pelagic copepods and highlight that these results have implications for integrative management measures, as pelagic copepods plays a prominent role in food web dynamics and for harvested fish in the East China Sea., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

We investigated at the single cell level during 16months (June 2012 to September 2013) the temporal distribution of picophytoplankton (picoeukaryotes, Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus) communities in two contrasted ecosystems: the Bay of Bizerte characterised by an oligotrophic regime typical of the Mediterranean Sea and the Bizerte Lagoon that exhibits a mesotrophic/eutrophic state. We aimed at depicting seasonal variations and quantifying the relationships between the environmental factors and the structure and abundance of picophytoplankton communities. Results showed that picophytoplankton groups were able to grow under a wide range of environmental conditions varying seasonally, although their abundances and contributions to the total chlorophyll biomass significantly varied and showed importance in the Bay of Bizerte. Synechococcus was the most abundant group reaching 225∗10 3 cells·cm -3 in the Bay and 278∗10 3 cells·cm -3 in the lagoon. This group was present all over the year in both ecosystems. Structural equation model results pointed out a different configuration regarding the picophytoplankton environmental drivers. The complexity of the configuration, i.e. number of significant links within the system, decreased under enhanced eutrophication conditions. The less exposure to anthropogenic stress, i.e. in the Bay of Bizerte, highlight a larger role of nutrient and hydrological conditions on the seasonal variations of picophytoplankton, whereas a negative effect of eutrophication on picophytoplankton communities was unveiled in the Bizerte Lagoon. We stress that such influence may be exacerbated under expected scenarios of Mediterranean warming conditions and nutrient release in coastal ecosystems., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Estuaries are among the most valuable aquatic systems by their services to human welfare. However, increasing human activities at the watershed along with the pressure of climate change are fostering the co-occurrence of multiple environmental drivers, and warn of potential negative impacts on estuaries resources. At present, no clear understanding of how coastal ecosystems will respond to the non-stationary effect of multiple drivers. Here we analysed the temporal interaction among multiple environmental drivers and their changing priority on shaping phytoplankton response in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, SW Atlantic Ocean. The interaction among environmental drivers and the number of significant direct and indirect effects on chlorophyll concentration increased over time in concurrence with enhanced anthropogenic stress, changing winter climate and wind patterns. Over the period 1978-1993, proximal variables such as nutrients, water temperature and salinity, showed a dominant effect on chlorophyll, whereas in more recent years (1993-2009) climate signals (SAM and ENSO) boosted indirect effects through its influence on precipitation, wind, water temperature and turbidity. Turbidity emerged as the dominant driver of chlorophyll while in recent years acted synergistically with the concentration of dissolved nitrogen. As a result, chlorophyll concentration showed a significant negative trend and a loss of seasonal peaks reflecting a pronounced reorganisation of the phytoplankton community. We stress the need to account for the changing priority of drivers to understand, and eventually forecast, biological responses under projected scenarios of global anthropogenic change., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Modern reef-building corals sustain a wide range of ecosystem services because of their ability to build calcium carbonate reef systems. The influence of environmental variables on coral calcification rates has been extensively studied, but our understanding of their relative importance is limited by the absence of in situ observations and the ability to decouple the interactions between different properties. We show that temperature is the primary driver of coral colony ( Porites astreoides and Diploria labyrinthiformis ) and reef-scale calcification rates over a 2-year monitoring period from the Bermuda coral reef. On the basis of multimodel climate simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and assuming sufficient coral nutrition, our results suggest that P. astreoides and D. labyrinthiformis coral calcification rates in Bermuda could increase throughout the 21st century as a result of gradual warming predicted under a minimum CO 2 emissions pathway [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6] with positive 21st-century calcification rates potentially maintained under a reduced CO 2 emissions pathway (RCP 4.5). These results highlight the potential benefits of rapid reductions in global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions for 21st-century Bermuda coral reefs and the ecosystem services they provide.

The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Acknowledged as among the worst invasive marine species, Mnemiopsis leidyi has spread through European Seas since the mid-1980's. Here we report a bimonthly survey conducted in 2010-11 in three lagoons (Bages-Sigean, Thau and Berre) and at two adjacent coastal stations (Sète and SOMLIT-Marseille) along the French Mediterranean coast. M. leidyi was present only in Berre and Bages-Sigean with maximum abundances observed in late summer. M. leidyi adults were present year round in Berre with the largest organisms (∼6 cm) observed in April. In Bages-Sigean, they occurred in sufficient abundance to be recorded by fishermen between August and November. Multiple linear regressions highlighted that abundance in both lagoons was mainly influenced by direct effects of salinity and chlorophyll-a, and temperature to a lesser extent. While M. leidyi has not yet been recorded in Thau, the lagoon is continually monitored to detect the potential establishment of M. leidyi., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We examined the habitat use of fish larvae in the northern Persian Gulf from July 2006 to June 2007. Correspondence Analysis showed significant differences between hydrological seasons in habitat use and structure of larval fish assemblages, while no differences were found regarding abundance among coralline and non-coralline habitats. The observed configuration resulted in part from seasonal reproductive patterns of dominant fish influencing the ratio pelagic:demersal spawned larvae. The ratio increased along with temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration, which likely fostered the reproduction of pelagic spawner fish. The close covariation with temperature throughout hydrographic seasons suggests a leading role of temperature in the seasonal structure of larvae assemblages. Our results provide new insights on fish larval ecology in a traditionally sub-sampled and highly exposed zone to anthropogenic pollution, the northern Persian Gulf, and highlight the potential role of Khark and Kharko Islands in conservation and fishery management in the area., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Quantifying biotic feedbacks in response to environmental signals is fundamental to assess ecosystem perturbation. We analyzed the joint effects of eutrophication, derived from sewage pollution, and climate at the base of the pelagic food web in the Bahía Blanca Estuary (SW Atlantic Ocean). A two-year survey of environmental conditions and microplankton communities was conducted in two sites affected by contrasting anthropogenic eutrophication conditions. Under severe eutrophication, we found higher phytoplankton abundance consistently dominated by smaller sized, non siliceous species, while microzooplankton abundance remained lower and nutrient stoichiometry showed conspicuous deviations from the Redfield ratio. Phytoplankton growth in such conditions appeared controlled by phosphorous. In turn, microplankton biomass and phytoplankton size ratio (<20μm:>20μm) displayed a saturation relationship with nutrients in the highly eutrophic area, although mean phytoplankton growth was similar in both eutrophic systems. The strength of links within the estuarine network, quantified through path analysis, showed enhanced relationships under larger anthropogenic eutrophication, which fostered the climate influence on microplankton communities. Our results show conspicuous effects of severe sewage pollution on the ecological stoichiometry, i.e., N and P excess with respect to Si, altering nutrient ratios for microplankton communities. This warns on wide consequences on food web dynamics and ultimately in ecosystem assets of coastal pelagic environments., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Particulate matter export fuels benthic ecosystems in continental margins and the deep sea, removing carbon from the upper ocean. Gelatinous zooplankton biomass provides a fast carbon vector that has been poorly studied. Observational data of a large-scale benthic trawling survey from 1994 to 2005 provided a unique opportunity to quantify jelly-carbon along an entire continental margin in the Mediterranean Sea and to assess potential links with biological and physical variables. Biomass depositions were sampled in shelves, slopes and canyons with peaks above 1000 carcasses per trawl, translating to standing stock values between 0.3 and 1.4 mg C m(2) after trawling and integrating between 30,000 and 175,000 m(2) of seabed. The benthopelagic jelly-carbon spatial distribution from the shelf to the canyons may be explained by atmospheric forcing related with NAO events and dense shelf water cascading, which are both known from the open Mediterranean. Over the decadal scale, we show that the jelly-carbon depositions temporal variability paralleled hydroclimate modifications, and that the enhanced jelly-carbon deposits are connected to a temperature-driven system where chlorophyll plays a minor role. Our results highlight the importance of gelatinous groups as indicators of large-scale ecosystem change, where jelly-carbon depositions play an important role in carbon and energy transport to benthic systems.

We examined plankton responses to climate variance by using high temporal resolution data from 1988 to 2007 in the Western English Channel. Climate variability modified both the magnitude and length of the seasonal signal of sea surface temperature, as well as the timing and depth of the thermocline. These changes permeated the pelagic system yielding conspicuous modifications in the phenology of autotroph communities and zooplankton. The climate variance envelope, thus far little considered in climate-plankton studies, is closely coupled with the non-stationary dynamics of plankton, and sheds light on impending ecological shifts and plankton structural changes. Our study calls for the integration of the non-stationary relationship between climate and plankton in prognostic models on the productivity of marine ecosystems., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We examined seasonal and interannual patterns of zooplankton functional groups in the Balearic Sea from 1994 to 2003 and revealed a conspicuous increase in zooplankton variance at community and population levels. The change occurred in 1999-2000, and paralleled modifications in the North Atlantic climate that cascaded down affecting the water column thermal gradient in the Balearic Sea. The observed modifications in both hydroclimate and ecological compartments raise the question of a potential ecological shift in the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean in the late 1990s., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The relative roles of temperature and food availability on the seasonal and daily growth of whitefish Coregonus lavaretus larvae were investigated in the oligotrophic peri-alpine Lake Annecy, France. During the spring from 2004 to 2007, surface water temperature and density of potential zooplankton prey were monitored, and 2688 larvae were caught and measured. In addition, the daily growth of 130 larvae was estimated retrospectively by investigating the microstructure of their otoliths. Temperature played the predominant role in controlling both seasonal and daily growth of early larvae. In contrast, the abundance of Mesocyclops leuckarti and larval density was only slightly correlated to larval growth, suggesting no food limitation nor strong interindividual competition over the study period. Overall, these findings run counter to concerns about potential food limitation, but sound a warning about the potential impact of climate change on fish ecology and fisheries management., (© 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Background: Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins., Principal Findings: In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems., Conclusions: Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

Fisheries can have a large impact on marine ecosystems, because the effects of removing large predatory fish may cascade down the food web. The implications of these cascading processes on system functioning and resilience remain a source of intense scientific debate. By using field data covering a 30-year period, we show for the Baltic Sea that the underlying mechanisms of trophic cascades produced a shift in ecosystem functioning after the collapse of the top predator cod. We identified an ecological threshold, corresponding to a planktivore abundance of approximately 17 x 10(10) individuals, that separates 2 ecosystem configurations in which zooplankton dynamics are driven by either hydroclimatic forces or predation pressure. Abundances of the planktivore sprat above the threshold decouple zooplankton dynamics from hydrological circumstances. The current strong regulation by sprat of the feeding resources for larval cod may hinder cod recovery and the return of the ecosystem to a prior state. This calls for the inclusion of a food web perspective in management decisions.

Anthropogenic disturbances intertwined with climatic changes can have a large impact on the upper trophic levels of marine ecosystems, which may cascade down the food web. So far it has been difficult to demonstrate multi-level trophic cascades in pelagic marine environments. Using field data collected during a 33-year period, we show for the first time a four-level community-wide trophic cascade in the open Baltic Sea. The dramatic reduction of the cod (Gadus morhua) population directly affected its main prey, the zooplanktivorous sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and indirectly the summer biomass of zooplankton and phytoplankton (top-down processes). Bottom-up processes and climate-hydrological forces had a weaker influence on sprat and zooplankton, whereas phytoplankton variation was explained solely by top-down mechanisms. Our results suggest that in order to dampen the occasionally harmful algal blooms of the Baltic, effort should be addressed not only to control anthropogenic nutrient inputs but also to preserve structure and functioning of higher trophic levels.

Planktonic copepods play a major role in the fluxes of matter and energy in the marine ecosystem, provide a biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, and play a role in determining fish recruitment. Owing to such ecological considerations, it is essential to understand the role that climate might play in the interannual variability of these organisms and the mechanisms by which it could modify the ecosystem functioning. In this study, a causal chain of meteorological, hydrological and ecological processes linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was identified in the Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean. The forcing by the NAO drives most of the hydro-climatic variability during winter and early spring. Subsequently, interannual and decadal changes of the dominant copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera were significantly correlated to the state of the hydro-climatic signal and tightly coupled to the NAO. Direct and indirect effects whose influence promoted phenological changes in the two copepod populations drove the species' responses to climatic forcing. Opposite responses of the analysed species were also highlighted by these results. While years characterized by the positive phase of the NAO leads to enhancement of the strength and the forward move of the C. typicus peak, they act negatively on the annual cycle of T. stylifera, the abundance of which drops twofold and the annual peak appears delayed in time. In contrast, low NAO years lead to high abundance of T. stylifera and a forward timing of its peak, and acts in turn negatively on the C. typicus annual cycle in both abundance (low) and timing (delayed). Owing to the synchronism between hydro-climatic conditions and the NAO, and the major role of these species in the pelagic ecosystem of the studied area, these results provide key elements for interpreting and forecasting decadal changes of planktonic populations in the Ligurian Sea.

A particle-tracking model was used to simulate the dispersion and development of the planktonic copepod Centropages typicus during spring in Ligurian Sea. We show that mesoscale current structure, with a coastal jet and eddies, plays a key role in the transport and dispersion of C. typicus during its life cycle. Although, in the north, offshore Nice, cohorts can be advected southwestward out of Ligurian basin, more to the south others are retained in the central eddy and may give the start to the spring bloom of this species. However, input of individuals from the south through the Corsican Channel and along the west coast of Corsica may also be important in spring. This study shows that the ambit of C. typicus population is larger than the Ligurian Sea.