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Understanding the benefits provided by restoring overstocked forests is crucial to guiding the choice of management actions, policy initiatives, and investments by beneficiaries, that is, monetizing ecosystem services. Using stakeholder-based fuzzy cognitive mapping, collected through workshops with natural-resource professionals, we mapped the interactions of ecosystem services and the perceived effects of management actions on them. In line with current concerns in the California study area, we found that fire protection was perceived as central (i.e., having a high degree of congruence with other ecosystem services) with improved fire protection providing important secondary effects on other ecosystem services, notably air-quality protection, provision of habitat, and carbon storage. Forest restoration involves multiple fuels-reduction actions, which were perceived as benefiting fire protection, with subsets also offering strong benefits to other ecosystem services. Prescribed burning, defensible-space creation, understory thinning, and replanting showed particularly large differences in effects when accounting for interactions of ecosystem services. Resource managers and other nonmanager professionals prioritized similar ecosystem services, with the second group placing more importance on interactions between different ecosystem services. Ecosystem-service valuation that includes interactions offers a salient, credible, and legitimate approach to inform multi-benefit forest management, particularly where partnerships must monetize some of those benefits to finance critical landscape restoration.

Suspended sediment transport in montane headwaters is important to water quality and nutrient balances. However, predictions of sediment source and transport can be difficult, in part, because of a changing climate and increasing frequencies of disturbances. We used observations from 10 headwater streams in water year (WY; starting on 1st October ending on 30th September) 2007–2009 and 2013–2018 to determine the potential impacts of climate and forest management on suspended sediment delivery. We analysed hysteretic responses of suspended sediment for 76 events in five headwater catchments within a snow-dominated site and another five within a lower-elevation, rain-snow transition site, in the mixed-conifer zone of California's Sierra Nevada. Hysteresis patterns were predominantly clockwise at both sites, suggesting localized sediment sources such as streambeds and banks. The warmer, transition site exhibited a lower proportion of clockwise-loop events, faster transport speed and higher peak sediment concentrations than the snow-dominated site. This suggests extended sediment sources and increases in transport can occur as currently snow-dominated areas become rain-snow transitional. Over the nine water years, we observed similar hysteresis effects amongst years under drought, near-average, and extremely wet conditions. Hence, fluctuations in precipitation amounts across years may not influence sediment source area substantially. Furthermore, we compared hysteresis metrics between the control, thin only, burn only and thin combined with burn catchments during the posttreatment period (WY 2013– 2018). Hysteresis effects remained unchanged amongst treatments, which may be attributed to the combinations of low-intensity operations implemented with best management practises combined with a four-year drought (WY 2013–2016). Taken together, sediment sources in small headwater catchments will probably remain localized with changing precipitation levels and low-intensity management operations, but it may be extended and potentially lead to higher sediment yields as the main hydrologic input shifts from primarily snow to a mix of rain and snow.

Feedbacks between the intertwined water and carbon cycles in semi-arid mountain ecosystems can introduce large uncertainties into projections of carbon storage. In this study, we sought to understand the influence of key mechanisms on carbon balances, focusing on an ecosystem whose complex terrain and large interannual variability in precipitation adds to its vulnerability to warming. We applied a dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to simulate water-carbon interactions in the 104,512km2 Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of California's Sierra Nevada for 1950–2099. Our 48 scenarios include a combination of carbon dioxide (CO2) increase, air temperature change, and varying plant rooting depths. We found that with warming (+2 and+5°C), water limitations on growth and enhanced soil respiration reduce carbon storage; however, CO2 fertilization and associated enhanced water-use efficiency offset this loss. Using the 4km model resolution to capture steep mountain precipitation gradients, plus accounting for the several meters of actual root-accessible water storage in the region, were also important. With warming accompanied by CO2 fertilization our projections show that the Sierra Nevada sequestering at least 200Tg (2kgm−2) carbon, versus carbon loss with warming alone. The increase reflects coniferous forests growing at high elevations, and some increase in broadleaved forests at low-to-intermediate elevations. Importantly, uncertainty in fire disturbance could shift our finding from carbon sink to source. The improved mechanistic understanding of these feedbacks can advance modeling of carbon-water interactions in mountain-ecosystem under a warmer and potentially drier climate.

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale of understanding avian use of these wetlands in conjunction with changes in climate are daunting yet critical to address lest we lose continent-wide migratory pathways. Here, we assess changes in waterbird use of North America’s Pacific Flyway in the Great Basin by examining water availability and climate trends over the past 100 years. We found recent (1980–2015) climate warming has significantly reduced the amount and shifted seasonality of water flowing into wetlands. Further, we found remarkable changes in waterbird species composition over time. We propose that a reduced hydroperiod and lower water quality from reduction in water level and flow limits sites used by waterbirds. These factors reduce chick survivorship as they cannot metabolize saline water, which makes suitable freshwater conditions a limiting resource. Collectively, climate-induced changes in Great Basin wetlands suggest a major shift in freshwater ecosystems, resulting in degradation of a continental migratory route. This work illustrates the importance of examining multi-scale changes in critical regional resources to understand their impact across a hemispheric flyway and provides a model to examine other flyways.

Globally, river systems have been extensively modified through alterations in riverscapes and flow regimes, reducing their capacity to absorb geophysical and environmental changes. In western North America and elsewhere, alterations in natural flow regimes and swimways through dams, levees, and floodplain development, work in concert with fire regime, forest management practices, as well as agriculture and urban development, to change recovery trajectories of river systems. Hydroregime scenarios for coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch (Walbaum, 1792), were investigated in Washington and Oregon, USA, where long‐term records of discharge, water temperature, and upstream fish passage are available. This novel approach combines hydrological and ecological data in a single visualization, providing empirical foundations for understanding upstream behavioural movement and tolerances of native fishes. The timing of coho salmon movement with respect to temperature and discharge were compared with scenarios representing possible future hydrological conditions associated with a changing climate. This approach provides a framework for the study of future hydrological alterations in other locations, and can inform local and regional conservation planning, particularly in view of water management policy. Management implications and recommendations for action that may expand the capacity of riverscapes to absorb perturbations are discussed.

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐m deep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

One of the principal questions in hydrology is how and when water leaves the critical zone storage as either stream flow or evapotranspiration. We investigated subsurface water storage and storage selection of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (California, USA) within the age-ranked storage selection framework, constrained by a novel combination of cosmogenic radioactive and stable isotopes: tritium, sodium-22, sulfur-35, and oxygen-18. We found a significant positive correlation between tritium and stream flow rate and between sulfur-35 and stream flow rate, indicating that the age distribution of stream flow varies with stream flow rate. Storage selection functions that vary with stream flow rate are better able to reproduce tritium concentrations in stream flow than functions that are constant in time. For the Southern Sierra Critical Zone, there is a strong preference to discharge the oldest water in storage during dry conditions but only a weak preference for younger water during wet conditions. The preference of evapotranspiration for younger water, constrained by oxygen-18 in stream water, is essential to parameterize subsurface storage but needs to be confirmed by isotopic or other investigations of evapotranspiration. This is the first study to illustrate how a combination of cosmogenic radioactive isotopes reveals the hydrochronology and water storage dynamics of catchments, constrains the subsurface architecture of the critical zone, and provides insight into landscape evolution.

The Kings River Experimental Watersheds (KREW) were established in 2002 to expand our knowledge of catchment physical, chemical, and biological processes in Sierra Nevada headwater forests, and to better understand the impacts of prescribed burning and forest thinning on these processes. Two elevation strata (high and low) were selected for the KREW sites, with four independent catchments and one nested catchment within each stratum. Both high and low elevation study areas were instrumented for continuous measurements of meteorology, streamflow, and turbidity. Atmospheric and stream chemistry, suspended sediment concentration, and bedload sediment delivery were measured on a regular schedule. Soil chemical and physical properties and vegetation were systematically sampled before and after the initial thinning and prescribed burning treatments, which were implemented between 2012 and 2016. Post-treatment data collection continues today as we explore opportunities for the second round of possible treatments. The critical research infrastructure and long-term baseline data collection has been instrumental in building partnerships with downstream managers, end users, non-governmental organizations, academic researchers, and national research programmes. Contributions to date include fundamental understanding of magnitude and variability of nutrient deposition; carbon, nutrient, and major ion dynamics in headwater streams; aquatic algae and macroinvertebrate populations; vegetation composition and structure; and streamflow responses to precipitation in the two elevation strata. Data from the experimental watersheds also support calibration and validation of diverse hydrologic models used for water resources planning.

Despite a multitude of small catchment studies, we lack a deep understanding of how variations in critical zone architecture lead to variations in hydrologic states and fluxes. This study characterizes hydrologic dynamics of 15 catchments of the U.S. Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) network where we hypothesized that our understanding of subsurface structure would illuminate patterns of hydrologic partitioning. The CZOs collect data sets that characterize the physical, chemical, and biological architecture of the subsurface, while also monitoring hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For the first time, we collate time series of hydrologic variables across the CZO network and begin the process of examining hydrologic signatures across sites. We find that catchments with low baseflow indices and high runoff sensitivity to storage receive most of their precipitation as rain and contain clay‐rich regolith profiles, prominent argillic horizons, and/or anthropogenic modifications. In contrast, sites with high baseflow indices and low runoff sensitivity to storage receive the majority of precipitation as snow and have more permeable regolith profiles. The seasonal variability of water balance components is a key control on the dynamic range of hydraulically connected water in the critical zone. These findings lead us to posit that water balance partitioning and streamflow hydraulics are linked through the coevolution of critical zone architecture but that much work remains to parse these controls out quantitatively.

Forest biomass reductions in overgrown forests have the potential to provide hydrologic benefits in the form of improved forest health and increased streamflow production in water‐limited systems. Biomass reductions may also alter evaporation. These changes are generated when water that previously would have been transpired or evaporated from the canopy of the removed vegetation is transferred to transpiration of the remaining vegetation, streamflow, and/or non‐canopy evaporation. In this study, we combined a new vegetation‐change water‐balance approach with lumped hydrologic modelling outputs to examine the effects of forest biomass reductions on transpiration of the remaining vegetation and streamflow in California's Sierra Nevada. We found that on average, 102 mm and 263 mm (8.0% and 20.6% of mean annual precipitation [MAP]) of water were made available following 20% and 50% forest biomass‐reduction scenarios, respectively. This water was then partitioned to both streamflow and transpiration of the remaining forest, but to varying degrees depending on post‐biomass‐reduction precipitation levels and forest biomass‐reduction intensity. During dry periods, most of the water (approximately 200 mm [15.7% on MAP] for the 50% biomass‐reduction scenario) was partitioned to transpiration of the remaining trees, while less than 50 mm (3.9% on MAP) was partitioned to streamflow. This increase in transpiration during dry periods would likely help trees maintain forest productivity and resistance to drought. During wet periods, the hydrologic benefits of forest biomass reductions shifted to streamflow (200 mm [15.7% on MAP]) and away from transpiration (less than 150 mm [11.8% on MAP]) as the remaining trees became less water stressed. We also found that streamflow benefits per unit of forest biomass reduction increased with biomass‐reduction intensity, whereas transpiration benefits decreased. By accounting for changes in vegetation, the vegetation‐change water balance developed in this study provided an improved assessment of watershed‐scale forest health benefits associated with forest biomass reductions.

Reduced forest mortality and increased streamflow have been promoted as hydrologic benefits of forest fuel treatments in water‐limited systems. These benefits, however, are often quite variable because they both rely upon the use of water made available through tree‐scale reductions in evapotranspiration. In this study, we examined whether forest mortality benefits and streamflow benefits from fuel treatments offset one another, because the allocation of unused water for one benefit implies less availability of that water for the other benefit. To do this, we took advantage of two paired‐watershed experiments in the Kings River Experimental Watersheds located in the southern Sierra Nevada. The fuel treatments, which included mechanical thinning and prescribed fire, began in 2012 and coincided with the 2012–2016 California drought and related forest mortality event. We found that in the higher‐elevation Bull watersheds, fuel treatments decreased forest mortality but had no effect on annual streamflow. In the lower‐elevation Providence watersheds, we observed the opposite result, as fuel treatments had no effect on forest mortality but depending on the model, increased annual streamflow at 95% and 90% confidence. The results suggest that the water made available from fuel treatments followed different hydrological pathways through the watersheds, with the water being taken up by neighbouring vegetation and decreasing water stress in Bull, and the water contributing to streamflow in Providence. These findings suggest that fuel treatments in water‐limited systems may not provide full hydrologic benefits to both forest mortality and streamflow concurrently in a given watershed.

Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relations can provide insight into the dynamic behavior of the Critical Zone (CZ), as C-Q relations integrate the spatial distribution and timing of watershed hydrogeochemical processes. This study blends geomorphologic analysis, C-Q relations and reactive-transport modeling using a rich dataset from an elevation gradient of eight watersheds in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California. We found that the CZ structure exerts a strong control on the C-Q relations, and on the hydrogeochemical behavior of headwater watersheds. Watersheds with thin regolith, a large stream network, and limited water storage have fast mean transit times along subsurface flow lines, and show limited seasonal variability in ionic concentrations in streamflow (i.e., chemostatic behavior). In contrast, watersheds with thicker regolith, a small stream network and more water storage have longer transit times along subsurface flow lines, and exhibit greater chemical variability (i.e., chemodynamic behavior). Independent estimates of mean transit times and water storage from other isotopic, hydrologic and geophysical studies were consistent with results from modeling C-Q relations. The stream chemistry and its variability were controlled by lateral flow within the regolith, and no mixing with deep groundwater was needed to explain the observed chemical variability. This study opens the possibility to estimate water-storage capacity and mean transit times, and thus drought resistance in watersheds, by using quantitative modeling of C-Q relations.

In the semi-arid environment of the Blue Mountains, Oregon (USA), water is a critical resource for both ecosystems and human uses and will be affected by climate change in both the near- and long-term. Warmer temperatures will reduce snowpack and snow-dominated watersheds will transition to mixed rain and snow, while mixed rain and snow dominated watersheds will shift towards rain dominated. This will result in high flows occurring more commonly in late autumn and winter rather than spring, and lower low flows in summer, phenomena that may already be occurring in the Pacific Northwest. Higher peak flows are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding, which may increase erosion and scouring of the streambed and concurrent risks to roads, culverts, and bridges. Mapping of projected peak flow changes near roads gives an opportunity to mitigate these potential risks. Diminished snowpack and low summer flows are expected to cause a reduction in water supply for aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, municipal consumption, and livestock grazing, although this effect will not be as prominent in areas with substantial amounts of groundwater. Advanced planning could help reduce conflict among water users. Responding pro-actively to climate risks by improving current management practices, like road design and water management as highlighted here, may be among the most efficient and effective methods for adaptation. Keywords: Climate change, Runoff, Snow, Low flows, Peak flows, Forest roads, Water supply

Author(s): O’Geen, AT; Safeeq, M; Wagenbrenner, J; Stacy, E; Hartsough, P; Devine, S; Tian, Z; Ferrell, R; Goulden, M; Hopmans, JW; Bales, R | Abstract: Sensor networks within the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO) and Kings River Experimental Watersheds (KREW) document changes in the water cycle spanning the west slope of the southern Sierra Nevada in California. The networks were established to document water dynamics throughout the critical zone spanning profile, hillslope, catchment, and watershed scales at key locations that reflect systematic differences in bioclimatic conditions imposed by a strong elevation gradient. The critical zone observatory attempts to constrain the hydrologic budget via representative measurements of streamflow, eddy flux covariance, snow depth, meteorological conditions, and water content and water potential in soil and deep regolith. These measurements reveal the complexity of interactions among all aspects of the water balance (runoff, storage, evapotranspiration [ET], and precipitation) through daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. Multiyear drought, catastrophic wildfires, insect outbreaks, and disease have caused widespread tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada. These disturbances offer a window into the future for this region, which is expected to undergo significant change in response to global warming. This hydrological observatory provides valuable hydrometric attributes and fluxes across the stream–groundwater– vadose zone–soil–vegetation–atmosphere continuum.

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology. Streamflow projections from the CGCM3.1 general circulation model for the A1B emission scenario were used to generate stochastic reservoir inflows that were then further perturbed to simulate a potentially drier future. These were then used to drive a simple reservoir model. In the scenario-based analysis, we found reservoir operations are vulnerable to climate change. Increases in fall and winter inflow could lead to more frequent flood storage, reducing flexibility to store incoming flood flows. Uncertainty in spring inflow volume complicates projection of future filling performance. The reservoir may fill more or less often, depending on whether springs are wetter or drier. In the summer, drawdown may occur earlier to meet conservation objectives. From the scenario-neutral analysis, we identified thresholds of streamflow magnitude that can predict climate change impacts for a wide range of scenarios. Our results highlight projected operational challenges for Cougar Dam and provide an example of how scenario-based and scenario-neutral approaches may be applied concurrently to assess climate change impacts.

Reliable and accurate monitoring of soil water content (θ) across the landscape is indispensable for many water resources applications. Capacitance-based in situ soil water content measuring devices are extensively used despite their sensitivity to soil properties besides water content, e.g., temperature and organic matter content. The main goals of this study were to: (i) examine the effects of temperature, hysteresis of the temperature response, and probe-to-probe variability on the performance of three (5TE, EC-5, and EC-TM) single capacitance sensors (SCS) in a Hawaiian Oxisol; and (ii) develop empirical calibration equations to correct for temperature and improve measurement accuracy. The SCS raw output and thermocouple temperature measurements were recorded at 1-min intervals during heating and cooling cycles between 1 and 45°C. The three SCS and thermocouples were inserted in uniformly packed soils with θ varying from 0 to 0.55 m3 m−3. We used three probes for each SCS, and the entire experiment was replicated with two heating and cooling cycles. Temperature, hysteresis, and the probe-to-probe variability effects were highly significant ( p 90% reduction in interquartile range) in measured water content due to changing soil temperature. Applying differing temperature corrections for heating and cooling did not improve the calibration any further.

The magnitude of sediment yield following forest timber harvest is controlled by increases in both sediment supply and streamflow. Since the relation between sediment transport and streamflow typically follows a power law, small increases in streamflow may translate into large increases in sediment transport. Interpreting the geomorphic effects of streamflow increases is confounded by the fact that timber harvest influences both the hydrologic regime and sediment supply of a watershed simultaneously, making it difficult to isolate the streamflow effect alone. Here we report on a novel approach to this problem using long-term data from two paired catchments located in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA. We use observed streamflow from the treated (clearcut) and control watersheds to reconstruct a natural streamflow time series for the treated watershed, one that represents streamflow response in conditions prior to harvest. We combine this reconstructed natural streamflow time series with observed relations between streamflow and sediment transport to quantify the background sediment yield and disentangle the relative effects of changes in hydrology and sediment supply. Results indicate that while increases in streamflow can account for modest increases in sediment transport, this is dwarfed by the increased supply of sediment that accompanies most timber harvest. These results have broad relevance to forest timber harvest and fuel management practices worldwide and can be used to constrain or set bounds on likely effects of more modest (i.e., thinning) techniques.

Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with large-scale hydrologic models. Here we develop and apply an analytical hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially explicit fashion. In particular, we incorporate the role of deep groundwater, which large-scale hydrologic models generally fail to capture, into streamflow sensitivity assessments. We validate our analytical streamflow sensitivities against two empirical measures of sensitivity derived using historical observations of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow from 217 watersheds. In general, empirically and analytically derived streamflow sensitivity values correspond. Although the selected watersheds cover a range of hydrologic regimes (e.g., rain-dominated, mixture of rain and snow, and snow-dominated), sensitivity validation was primarily driven by the snow-dominated watersheds, which are subjected to a wider range of change in recharge timing and magnitude as a result of increased temperature. Overall, two patterns emerge from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low-sensitivity areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust, practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach, be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a framework to assist land and water managers in adapting to an uncertain and potentially challenging future.

Enhanced understanding of subsurface water storage will improve prediction of future impacts of climate change, including drought, forest mortality, wildland fire, and strained water security. Previous research has examined the importance of plant-accessible water in soil, but in upland landscapes within Mediterranean climates, soil often accounts for only a fraction of subsurface water storage. We draw insights from previous research and a case study of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory to define attributes of subsurface storage; review observed patterns in their distribu-tion; highlight nested methods for estimating them across scales; and showcase the fundamental processes controlling their formation. We review observations that highlight how forest ecosystems subsist on lasting plant-accessible stores of subsurface water during the summer dry period and during multiyear droughts. The data suggest that trees in these forest ecosystems are rooted deeply in the weathered, highly porous saprolite or saprock, which reaches up to 10–20 m beneath the surface. This review confirms that the system harbors large volumes of subsurface water and shows that they are vital to supporting the ecosystem through the summer dry season and extended droughts. This research enhances understanding of deep subsurface water storage across landscapes and identifies key remaining challenges in predicting and managing response to climate and land use change in mountain ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada and in other Mediterranean climates worldwide. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water Extremes Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.

Mountain runoff ultimately reflects the difference between precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET), as modulated by biogeophysical mechanisms that intensify or alleviate drought impacts. These modulating mechanisms are seldom measured and not fully understood. The impact of the warm 2012–15 California drought on the heavily instrumented Kings River basin provides an extraordinary opportunity to enumerate four mechanisms that controlled the impact of drought on mountain hydrology. Two mechanisms intensified the impact: (i) evaporative processes have first access to local precipitation, which decreased the fractional allocation of P to runoff in 2012–15 and reduced P-ET by 30% relative to previous years, and (ii) 2012–15 was 1 °C warmer than the previous decade, which increased ET relative to previous years and reduced P-ET by 5%. The other two mechanisms alleviated the impact: (iii) spatial heterogeneity and the continuing supply of runoff from higher elevations increased 2012–15 P-ET by 10% relative to that expected for a homogenous basin, and iv) drought-associated dieback and wildfire thinned the forest and decreased ET, which increased 2016 P-ET by 15%. These mechanisms are all important and may offset each other; analyses that neglect one or more will over or underestimate the impact of drought and warming on mountain runoff.

In the western United States, climate warming poses a unique threat to water and snow hydrology because much of the snowpack accumulates at temperatures near 0 °C. As the climate continues to warm, much of the region's precipitation is expected to switch from snow to rain, causing flashier hydrographs, earlier inflow to reservoirs, and reduced spring and summer snowpack. This study investigates historical variability in snow to precipitation proportion (Sf) and maps areas in the western United States that have demonstrated higher Sf sensitivity to warming in the past. Projected changes in Sf under 1.1, 1.8, and 3.0 °C future warming scenarios are presented in relation to historical variability and sensitivity. Our findings suggest that Sf in this region has primarily varied based on winter temperature rather than precipitation. The difference in Sf between cold and warm winters at low- and mid-elevations during 1916-2003 ranged from 31% in the Pacific Northwest to 40% in the California Sierra Nevada. In contrast, the difference in Sf between wet and dry winters was statistically not significant. Overall, in the northern Sierra, Klamath, and western slopes of the Cascade Mountains Ranges, Sf was most sensitive to temperature where winter temperature ranged between -5 to 5 °C. Results from our trend analysis show a regional shift in both Sf and signal-to-noise ratios during 1960-2003 as compared with 1916-2003. Our findings indicate that natural variability in Sf over 1916-2003 across all regions except for the Great Basin most closely resembles the projected 2040-warming scenario (+1.8 °C).

Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that strongly influence flood generation are near the freezing point and thus sensitive to small changes in temperature. To improve predictions of future flooding potential and inform strategies to adapt to these changes, we mapped the sensitivity of landscapes to changes in peak flows due to climate warming across Oregon and Washington. We first developed principal component-based models for predicting peak flows across a range of recurrence intervals (2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-years) based on historical instantaneous peak flow data from 1000 gauged watersheds in Oregon and Washington. Key predictors of peak flows included drainage area and principal component scores for climate, land cover, soil, and topographic metrics. We then used these regression models to predict future peak flows by perturbing the climate variables based on future climate projections (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) for the A1B emission scenario. For each recurrence interval, peak flow sensitivities were computed as the ratio of future to current peak flow magnitudes. Our analysis suggests that temperature-induced changes in snowpack dynamics will result in large (>30–40%) increases in peak flow magnitude in some areas, principally the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue Mountains and parts of the western edge of the Rocky Mountains. Flood generation processes in lower elevation areas are less likely to be affected, but some of these areas may be impacted by floodwaters from upstream. These results can assist land, water, and infrastructure managers in identifying watersheds and resources that are particularly vulnerable to increased peak flows and developing plans to increase their resilience. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

©2015. American Geophysical Union. California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. We use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916-2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead time of 1month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (°) and fine (°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In particular, the adequacy of VIC simulations in groundwater- versus runoff-dominated watersheds using a range of flow metrics relevant for water supply and aquatic habitat was examined. These flow metrics were 1) total annual streamflow; 2) total fall, winter, spring, and summer season streamflows; and 3) 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th flow percentiles. The effect of climate on model performance was also evaluated by comparing the observed and simulated streamflow sensitivities to temperature and precipitation. Model performance was evaluated using four quantitative statistics: nonparametric rank correlation ρ, normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency NNSE, root-mean-square error RMSE, and percent bias PBIAS. The VIC model captured the sensitivity of streamflow for temperature better than for precipitation and was in poor agreement with the corresponding temperature and precipitation sensitivities derived from observed streamflow. The model was able to capture the hydrologic behavior of the study watersheds with reasonable accuracy. Both total streamflow and flow percentiles, however, are subject to strong systematic model bias. For example, summer streamflows were underpredicted (PBIAS = −13%) in groundwater-dominated watersheds and overpredicted (PBIAS = 48%) in runoff-dominated watersheds. Similarly, the 5th flow percentile was underpredicted (PBIAS = −51%) in groundwater-dominated watersheds and overpredicted (PBIAS = 19%) in runoff-dominated watersheds. These results provide a foundation for improving model parameterization and calibration in ungauged basins.

Spatial variability of soil physical and hydrological properties within or among agricultural fields could be intrinsically induced due to geologic and pedologic soil forming factors, but some of the variability may be induced by anthropogenic activities such as tillage practices. No-tillage has been gaining ground as a successful conservation practice, and quantifying spatial variability of soil physical properties induced by no-tillage practices is a prerequisite for making appropriate site-specific agricultural management decisions and/or reformulating some management practices. In particular, there remains very limited information on the spatial variability of soil physical properties under long-term no-tillage corn and tropical soil conditions. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to quantify the spatial variability of some selected soil physical properties (soil surface temperature (ST), volumetric water content (&theta, v), soil resistance (TIP), total porosity (&theta, t), bulk density (&rho, b), organic carbon, and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat)) using classical and geostatistical methods. The study site was a 2 ha field cropped no-tillage sweet corn for nearly 10 years on Oahu, Hawaii. The field was divided into 10 &times, 10 and 20 &times, 20 m grids. Soil samples were collected at each grid for measuring &rho, b, &theta, t, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the laboratory following standard methods. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, TIP at 10 and 20 cm depths, soil surface temperature, and &theta, v were also measured. Porosity and &rho, b have low and low to moderate variability, respectively based on the relative ranking of the magnitude of variability drawn from the coefficient of variation. Variability of the SOC, TIP, and Ksat ranges from moderate to high. Based on the best-fitted semivariogram model for finer grid data, 9.8 m and 142.2 m are the cut off beyond which the measured parameter does not show any spatial correlation for SOC, and TIP at 10 cm depth, respectively. Bulk density shows the highest spatial dependence (range = 226.8 m) among all measured properties. Spatial distribution of the soil properties based on kriging shows a high level of variability even though the sampled field is relatively small.

Asymmetrical monsoons during the recent past have resulted into spatially variable and devastating floods in South Asia. Analysis of historic precipitation extremes record may help in formulating mitigation strategies at local level. Eleven indices of precipitation extremes were evaluated using RClimDex and daily time series data for analysis period of 1981–2010 from five representative cities across Punjab province of Pakistan. The indices include consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, number of days above daily average precipitation, number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm, number of days with precipitation ≥20 mm, very wet days, extremely wet days, simple daily intensity index, maximum 1-day precipitation quantity, maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation quantity, and annual total wet-day precipitation. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope extremes were used to detect trends in indices. Droughts and excessive precipitation were dictated by elevation from mean sea level with prolonged dry spells in southern Punjab and vice versa confirming spatial trends for precipitation extremes. However, no temporal trend was observed for any of the indices. Summer in the region is the wettest season depicting contribution of monsoons during June through August toward devastating floods in the region.

A key challenge for resource and land managers is predicting the consequences of climate warming on streamflow and water resources. During the last century in the western United States, significant reductions in snowpack and earlier snowmelt have led to an increase in the fraction of annual streamflow during winter and a decline in the summer. Previous work has identified elevation as it relates to snowpack dynamics as the primary control on streamflow sensitivity to warming. But along with changes in the timing of snowpack accumulation and melt, summer streamflows are also sensitive to intrinsic, geologically mediated differences in the efficiency of landscapes in transforming recharge (either as rain or snow) into discharge; we term this latter factor drainage efficiency. Here we explore the conjunction of drainage efficiency and snowpack dynamics in interpreting retrospective trends in summer streamflow during 1950–2010 using daily streamflow from 81 watersheds across the western United States. The recession constant (k) and fraction of precipitation falling as snow (Sf) were used as metrics of deep groundwater and overall precipitation regime (rain and/or snow), respectively. This conjunctive analysis indicates that summer streamflows in watersheds that drain slowly from deep groundwater and receive precipitation as snow are most sensitive to climate warming. During the spring, however, watersheds that drain rapidly and receive precipitation as snow are most sensitive to climate warming. Our results indicate that not all trends in western United States are associated with changes in snowpack dynamics; we observe declining streamflow in late fall and winter in rain-dominated watersheds as well. These empirical findings support both theory and hydrologic modelling and have implications for how streamflow sensitivity to warming is interpreted across broad regions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Streamflow and water temperature (hydroclimate) influence the life histories of aquatic biota. The relationship between streamflow and temperature varies with climate, hydrogeomorphic setting, and season. Life histories of native fishes reflect, in part, their adaptation to regional hydroclimate (flow and water temperature), local habitats, and natural disturbance regimes, all of which may be affected by water management. Alterations to natural hydroclimates, such as those caused by river regulation or climate change, can modify the suitability and variety of in-stream habitat for fishes throughout the year. Here, we present the ichthyograph, a new empirically-based graphical tool to help visualize relationships between hydroclimate and fish phenology. Generally, this graphical tool can be used to display a variety of phenotypic traits. We used long-term data sets of daily fish passage to examine linkages between hydroclimate and the expression of life-history phenology by native fishes. The ichthyograph may be used to characterize the environmental phenology for fishes across multiple spatio-temporal domains. We illustrate the ichthyograph in two applications to visualize: 1) river use for the community of fishes at a specific location; and 2) stream conditions at multiple locations within the river network for one species at different life-history stages. The novel, yet simple, ichthyograph offers a flexible framework to enable transformations in thinking regarding relationships between hydroclimate and aquatic species across space and time. The potential broad application of this innovative tool promotes synergism between assessments of physical characteristics and the biological needs of aquatic species.

Groundwater and surface water interaction is an essential component of the hydrological cycle. The hydraulic connectivity and exchange of water between surface water (e.g. rivers, lakes, wetlands) and underlying aquifers provide many ecosystem services that sustain human and ecological well-being. Climate change, increased population, and industrial growth have resulted in substantial environmental (e.g. land use and land cover, climate, groundwater) changes across the globe. As a result, decline in groundwater levels, drying of streams, shrinking lakes, wetlands, and estuaries have been observed across the world. This generates concerns about the effects of such environmental changes on groundwater and surface water interactions, and on the quality and quantity of water resources. This chapter presents an overview of groundwater and surface water interactions, pressing environmental change issues centered on natural and anthropogenic environmental changes, and available management tools that quantify the integrated groundwater and surface water flow processes. This chapter also briefly discusses exciting research opportunities enabled by satellite remote sensing. We close in with a discussion of future management challenges and strategies for sustainable use of groundwater and surface water resources. One outcome of this chapter is to provide resource managers, researchers, consultant groups, and government agencies basic understanding of the types, mechanism, and effects of natural and anthropogenic landuse changes on groundwater and surface water interactions, and available management tools for studying groundwater and surface water interactions.

We examined trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in the Oahu during the period of past 39 (1969–2007) and 25 (1983–2007) years. We found a strong spatial and temporal variability in the temperature trends on Oahu. During the past 39 years, island-wide minimum temperature has increased by 0.17 °C/decade and shows a considerable variability in trends at individual location. There was no detectable trend found in maximum temperature over the same time period. The year 1983 was identified as the change point in the island-wide minimum temperature. During the recent 25 years annual and summer maximum temperature showed a decline while minimum temperature continued to increase. Trend in diurnal temperature range (DTR) shows a decline during the past 39 years with a stronger decreasing trend during the recent 25 years. The trend in DTR for Oahu is much higher compared to the global DTR trend indicating a rapid warming in minimum temperature. Extreme temperature indices show a general warming during the past 39 years. There has been significant increase in tropical and warm nights at the two urban stations. Maximum temperature generally followed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) except the period when there is an increase in Hawaii Rainfall Index (HRI). In contrast, minimum temperature showed better agreement with HRI compared to the PDO, at least up until 1999 after which it showed an increase. Despite the relative cooling in PDO during the recent decade an increase in minimum temperature can be attributed to a decline in HRI.

Interception losses in stands of non-native trees in Hawaiian forests and their potential negative impacts on fresh water availability are poorly understood. In this study, a canopy water balance analysis was conducted to estimate interception losses using measurements of rainfall (RF), throughfall (TF), and stemflow (SF) at three locations, each dominated by one or more of the following non-native tree species: Psidium cattleianum Sabine (Strawberry guava), Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Christmas berry), Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels (Java plum), and Coffea arabica L. (Coffee). Mean TF expressed as percentage of total RF was the lowest (43.3%) under a monotypic stand of P. cattleianum and the highest (56.5%) under mixture of S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini. Observed SF was highest (33.9%) under P. cattleianum and lowest (3.6%) under a mixture of S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini. The relatively high SF under P. cattleianum can be attributed to its smooth bark, stem density, and steep branching. The mean observed canopy interception varied between 23% under P. cattleianum and 45% at the site dominated by C. arabica. Mean direct TF coefficients from individual events at each location ranged from a low of 0.36 under the canopy dominated by C. arabica to a high of 0.51 under the canopy dominated by S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini. In contrast, the mean SF partitioning coefficients from individual storm events at each location ranged from a low of 0.05 under the canopy dominated by S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini to a high of 0.37 under P. cattleianum. Mean canopy storage capacity was highest (1.90) at the site dominated by S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini whereas trunk storage capacity was highest (0.54) under the P. cattleianum. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Flow and temperature are strongly linked environmental factors driving ecosystem processes in streams. Stream temperature maxima (Tmax_w) and stream flow minima (Qmin) can create periods of stress for aquatic organisms. In mountainous areas, such as western North America, recent shifts toward an earlier spring peak flow and decreases in low flow during summer/fall have been reported. We hypothesized that an earlier peak flow could be shifting the timing of low flow and leading to a decrease in the interval between Tmax_w and Qmin. We also examined if years with extreme low Qmin were associated with years of extreme high Tmax_w. We tested these hypotheses using long-term data from 22 minimally human-influenced streams for the period 1950–2010. We found trends toward a shorter time lag between Tmax_w and Qmin over time and a strong negative association between their magnitudes. Our findings show that aquatic biota may be increasingly experiencing narrower time windows to recover or adapt between these extreme events of low flow and high temperature. This study highlights the importance of evaluating multiple environmental drivers to better gage the effects of the recent climate variability in freshwaters.