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We use two panel data techniques in a novel large dataset to assess the dynamic interactions of household and enterprise credit with growth in developed and developing countries. Panel vector autoregressive (VAR) results reject the hypothesis that finance only follows economic growth. Instead, both panel techniques provide strong evidence that higher allocations of household credit are an impediment to economic growth regardless of a country's level of development. Otherwise, empirical results confirm that firm credit expansions are conducive to economic growth; however, this effect is not immediate in developing countries but it appears with a 1-year delay. Our results provide evidence that the credit-growth nexus changes over time and during the development process. These findings may explain the ambiguous and vanishing effect of finance on growth in recent literature. 2020 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd The authors are grateful to Dr. Florian Leon who compiled and provided the data. Scopus

This study seeks to analyze the non-linear relationship between a firm's debt structure and performance based on evidence from Japan through the use of a panel data fixed effects model for a sample of 1,670 listed firms. This is the first study that looks at the effect of the short-term debt threshold on corporate performance, as well as the influence of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) on the nonlinear effect of debt structure on corporate performance. Moreover, it represents an initial endeavor that uses cross-industry comparisons to scrutinize the nonlinear effect of debt structure on the performance of Japanese companies. This study's findings reveal the presence of a nonlinear impact of debt with short-term maturity on corporate performance. In addition, there is a U-shaped relationship between firm performance and short-term debt, suggesting that a firm's profit decreases at lower levels of short-term debt (below 45.2%) and increases at higher levels of debt with short-term maturity. Moreover, this short-term debt threshold was affected significantly by the financial crisis. 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Scopus

This study evaluates the effect of minority management (MG) on capital structure for a sample of listed Japanese companies over three sectors. We used a dynamic panel, threshold-based model that can control for endogeneity to investigate the linkage between the speed of adjustment of leverage and MG, with the results proving that there is significant linkage between MG and leverage. We also observed that the level of MG has a threshold effect on leverage, such that firms with a high level of MG can reach their optimal leverage faster than those with a low level of MG. 2022 We would like to thank the Editor-in-Chief Prof. Jonathan Batten and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. Other errors are our own. Scopus

The main objective of our research is to study the direct impact of pro-growth economic policies on employment creation globally and regionally, as evidence has countered policy-makers’ expectation that output growth leads automatically to job creation. We innovate by using the ratio of employment to the population above 25 years as dependent variable instead of the customary employment elasticity. We apply generalized methods of moments’ econometrics on dynamic panel data models and find that growth stimulates employment creation on average across 76 countries. The policies promoting private sector credit, investments, openness, services, education spending, tertiary enrollment, and a fixed exchange rate are the ones that create employment. Larger government size undermines job creation, while policies promoting FDI and industrial development fail to stimulate employment. However, we establish that the effect of pro-growth policies on employment varies significantly across regions, with evidence of weaker links between economic policies and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The authors acknowledge the financial assistance of the European Commission within the context of the FEMISE research program (project FEM35-12) for preliminary work on this research. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. Scopus

The aim of this study is to analyze the link between the quality of institutions and the financial development using a panel data that include 93 developing countries for the period 2002–2017 with a special focus on MENA region. Empirical results show that improving the quality of institutions i.e., strengthening the institutional infrastructure, can promote financial development. These results are robust for all financial development indicators selected in this study. The non-linear relationship between institutional quality and financial development, depends on use of ICT showing that more use of ICT can help corruption control and boost financial development.

This paper adds to the recent literature on finance and employment creation by exploring the effect of finance on the labour market, using data on 143 countries from 1995 to 2015. We also examine whether the impact of financial development on labour is significantly different before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. This paper has five main findings. First, the analysis confirms the positive relationship between financial institution efficiency and access, as well as the employment rate in the linear specification. Second, the marginal returns to employment from further financial institution inclusion diminish at high levels of inclusion and turn negative when an inclusion point is reached. Third, the effects of financial market access on employment show a "U-Shaped" relationship. Fourth, the positive effect of financial development on employment strengthens with the country's institutional quality. And fifth, there is strong support for a negative impact of financial development on employment during the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. 2021 Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA We would like to thank the associate editor and two anonymous referees for their useful comments, and Rob Atree for editorial assistance. Scopus

This study investigates the impact of terrorist attacks and political violence on the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Tunisia. The dataset employed consists of monthly data that covers the period from January 2000 to September 2016, which includes several political and terrorist attacks in Tunisia and the region. Empirically, we investigate the true data generating process (DGP) of these two proxies of tourism activity by accounting for four statistical properties that characterize these series: (1) seasonality, (2) unit roots, (3) breaks, and (4) long memory behavior. Our empirical findings show strong evidence of stationarity, five breaks in the tourist arrival time series and spurious long memory behavior. By estimating a 3-state Markov switching model consisting of the mean, trend, and variance, we find that the Tunisian Jasmine revolution and two recent terrorist attacks, one at the Bardo National Museum on March 18, 2015 and the other at the tourist resort at Port El Kantaoui, Sousse on June 26, 2015, played an important role in influencing the tourism activity of the country. Our empirical findings show also that local shocks have a more important impact than international shocks in influencing tourism activity. Interestingly, we find that the effects of terrorist shocks have a long duration compared to political violence shocks. Several security, marketing, and economic policies have been proposed and discussed in the paper. Dr. Charfeddine Lanouar is associate Professor of economics and econometrics at Qatar University. He holds a Ph.D in applied Econometrics in 2007 from University Paris II-Pantheon - Assas, France. His research area include nonlinear models (Switching and long memory processes), financial modeling and forecasting, energy economics, and fiscal and monetary policies. He has published several articles in these topics in internationally respected peer-reviewed journals including the journal of Energy Economics, Energy, Energy Policy, Economic Modeling, Emerging Market Review and Cleaner Energy Production etc. His research was funded by internal and external grants including the QFC and QNRF grants. Scopus

This paper investigates the cost efficiency levels of the banking sectors of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries for the period from 2001 to 2015 and provides a comparison of conventional and Islamic banks. We obtain measures of efficiency using a stochastic frontier model and the meta-frontier approach. The evidence demonstrates that Islamic banks are less efficient and have a weaker level of production technology than conventional banks. The cost efficiency of banks varies significantly across the six Gulf countries and over time. We adopt the results drawn from the meta-frontier model that allow to take into account the differences between the studied countries, and empirically examine the bank-specific, financial, macroeconomic, and political determinants of banking efficiency. The results provide evidence of the differential effects of the selected variables on the efficiency of conventional and Islamic banks. These variables affect the performance of the two types of banks in different ways and with different magnitudes. 2018, The Indian Econometric Society. Scopus

This study scrutinizes the nonlinear relationship between foreign ownership and corporate leverage decisions by applying a panel threshold model to a sample that comprises a balanced panel data set of 1027 Japanese firms. Moreover, this study investigates whether a threshold for the level of foreign ownership moderates the effect of determinants on capital structure. The empirical findings support the existence of a threshold effect for foreign ownership on corporate capital structure and its determinants. Furthermore, our findings have managerial implications for foreign investors with a high level of ownership in that they should mainly use liquidity, profitability, and growth to reduce leverage.

This paper assesses the information and communications technologies (ICT)-labour relationship from a macroeconomic perspective to clarify some ambiguity regarding the overall employment effect of ICT adoption in the short and long term. For that, we use two panel data techniques, generalized method of moments (GMM) and the pooled mean group model (PMG), on a large sample of developing and developed countries, covering five regions, during the period from 1990–2015. Our findings provide evidence that the overall impact of ICT adoption is labour saving in the short term, and this adverse effect still carries on in the long run, inducing higher structural unemployment. The displacement of the labour market induced by ICT adoption is real, persistent, and universal. Policy-makers should facilitate the transition of labour from old to new jobs and reduce the period of adaptability.

This chapter contributes to the literature on fiscal-monetary interdependence in resource-dependent economies in the Arab World, specifically during the post-mid-1990s oil boom. It also provides empirical evidence on threshold effects for oil rents per capita. These findings support differentiated exchange rate regime choices in economies with low rent per capita, such as Sudan and Yemen, relative to wealthier Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and Algeria. The first group suffers from fiscal dominance, which explains their choice of soft pegged exchange rate regimes and their failure to sustain credible exchange rate-based stabilization programs. GCC countries, however, managed to maintain credible de facto pegged exchange rate regimes and convertible currencies, while Algeria graduated to a successfully managed exchange rate regime. Nevertheless, in contrast to Chile and Norway, Arab oil economies still need to establish credible fiscal rules for conducting monetary policy in order to withstand the effects of permanently lower oil prices.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and compare the efficiency ratios and the technological gaps of banking industries in seven countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Design/methodology/approach The meta-frontier model was used to evaluate efficiency across countries that may have different production technologies. Findings The results of the meta-frontier analysis of banking systems over the period from 1991 to 2011 showed that Tunisian banks were the most efficient in terms of cost and profit. For the cost (profit) model, the analysis of the technological gap showed that Egyptian (Tunisian) banks used the most advanced technology in offering financial services to clients. The comparison of efficiencies confirmed that most efficient banks in terms of cost are not necessarily the most efficient in terms of profit and vice versa. The authors also concluded that cost efficiency analysis provides a partial view of banking efficiency and hence, profit efficiency analysis is as important. Originality/value The study is relevant for policymakers, regulators and monetary authorities and for researchers to know more about the real differences of efficiency of banks across countries in MENA region and to clarify the sources of this inefficiency to better adapt to the new environment, to make strategic decisions and to reference the performance of banking institutions.

Purpose The purpose of this paper to study the hotel performance determinants by examining the impact of the internal and the external environment of the hotel on its performance. Design/methodology/approach A bootstrapped truncated regression model is used following the evaluation of efficiency score for hotels using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The effects of the cited variables are discussed to determine the best development strategy for increasing hotel performance. Findings This paper has four major contributions. First, the test results confirm that macro-contextual factors, such as international attraction and market competition, have a direct influence on hotel efficiency. Second, hotel efficiency depends on hotel characteristics, such as hotel age, hotel type, management type and the location of the hotel. Third, the tenure of the general manager, education level of the board staff and number of managers influence hotel efficiency. Finally, general tourism wages increase the efficiency score of the corporate hotel performance. Research limitations/implications Tourism employment studies require further improvement, and their challenges should be highlighted when countries develop tourism strategies. Moreover, hiring employees with a better educational background appears to be an effective human resource strategy to reduce inefficiency in the hotel sector. Tourism performance and development need a thorough investigation into tourism wages to attract the best students and the best graduates to the tourism sector to bring out the needed number and skills of employees. Practical implications The conclusions of this paper are consistent with the literature results. However, it is important to separate market concentration from market competition for whose literature concluded an opposite influence on the hotel performance. The authors explain this contrast by the measure choice. Social implications The performance of the hotel depends not only on the physical resources and on the destination characteristics but also on the management characteristics. Originality/value This paper is the first to test empirically the influence of destination attractiveness, competition level, hotel size, hotel age, management contract, hotel type, location, advertising, manager’s tenure, tourism education and wages on the hotel performance in Tunisia.

Resume Les auteurs examinent le potentiel de creation d'emplois des secteurs d'activite tunisiens sur le long terme. Ils estiment l'elasticite production-emploi de long terme a partir de donnees de panel portant sur quinze secteurs et sur la periode 1983–2010, en utilisant un estimateur de type MG (moyenne de groupe). L'analyse montre que les industries extractives ne peuvent pas absorber de main-d'œuvre, et que le developpement de l'hotellerie-restauration se fait sans creation d'emplois sur le long terme. Les auteurs preconisent en consequence d'axer la politique economique sur les secteurs particulierement intensifs en main-d'œuvre – services et industries manufacturieres d'exportation – et sur les activites paratouristiques plutot que touristiques.

This article examines the long-term ability of Tunisian industries to generate employment opportunities. Using a panel data set of 15 industries over 1983–2010, the authors estimate their long-run output–employment elasticities, using the “mean group” estimator. They argue that economic policy should target the most labour-intensive industries, particularly service industries and export manufacturing industries. After demonstrating the inability of the mining industry to absorb labour, the authors highlight the long-run jobless growth in the hotel, bar and restaurant industry and suggest that future investment in this industry will yield no results and that future tourism policy should focus rather on para-tourism activities. Scopus

This paper applies the meta-frontier approach to investigate the profit efficiency level of the banking sector in the MENA region. This approach enables the assessment of the banking efficiency while considering technological gap between the investigated countries and the whole banking industry. We integrate the country-specific conditions in the designed model (macro-financial, macro-economic, regulatory and banking characteristics). Empirical results were obtained through a dataset of seven countries, namely Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, over the period from 1991 to 2011. The analysis supports the view that profit efficiency varies from one country to another, and the technological gap plays an important role in explaining the ability of the banking sector in one country to compete with others. The results of the efficiency scores corrected by technological and environmental heterogeneities led us to conclude that Jordanian banks were the most efficient while the Lebanese banks enjoyed a very advantageous banking technology. This work eventually emphasizes relevant recommendations to improve the performance of the banking sector.

This paper aims at analyzing the characteristics of female employment and unemployment in Tunisia and at identifying the main incentives and constraints to female labor participation and employment status. Since the 2000’s, female participation stagnated at around 25 percent in Tunisia, which is higher than the average in the MENA countries, but it is at the half the world rate. Several socio-cultural factors associated with economic determinants are causing changes in the participation of women in the labor market. Marital status is considered as a constraint for labor force participation decision and employment status for woman. Woman education attainment influences both her participation decision and type of employment choice. The services sectors provide the majority of female jobs, especially in the public sector which is considered as a “family friendly” sector. Women are poorly represented in positions of responsibility and leadership and the rate of self-employment among Tunisian women is low. The female unemployment rate is above that of men.

Using financial data derived from 27 hotel companies operating in Tunisia, the paper reports an analysis of hotel profitability. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Return On Assets (ROA) analysis managerial efficiency is shown to be important when holding geographical and operating contracts as constants. Nonetheless these two aspects have important implications for hotel profitability. Hotel size, level of indebtedness, exposure to crisis events and levels of managers' education are also influential. The implications for management tenure and optimal age of a hotel are discussed.

In order to evaluate and compare the efficiency levels across banking industries, we adopt the meta-frontier model that can assess the technological difference among countries. Given the importance of country specific conditions, we include in our analysis the different specificities of each country to incorporate the technological as the environmental differences in the evaluation of banking efficiencies. Using data on the banking industries of several countries in the MENA region, over the period 1991–2011, the results of the efficiency scores corrected by the technological and environmental gap led us to conclude that Egyptian banks are the most efficient in terms of cost compared with banks in other countries. Egyptian banks enjoy a very favourable banking technology. Our results support the hypothesis that traditional techniques of efficiency analysis based on the efficiency scores of a specific and pooled frontier tend to mystify efficiency levels and may incorrectly identify efficient banks. This p...

The purpose of this article is to assess the relationship between trade liberalisation in Tunisia and the employment intensity of sectoral output growth, in order to examine the claim that free trade creates jobs by stimulating growth. Using panel data for 15 Tunisian sectors over the period 1983–2010, we compare estimated sectoral output–employment elasticities prior to and following the Free Trade Agreement process with the European Union. The results provide evidence that trade liberalisation in Tunisia has led to an increase in the intensity of employment in exporting manufacturing sectors like textiles, clothing and leather industries, and mechanical and electrical industries. However, their ability to generate jobs in response to value-added growth remains weak. Conversely, since the Free Trade Agreement process, the most labour-intensive service sectors, notably tourism and miscellaneous services, have shown a significant decrease in the employment intensity of their output growth. Our findings suggest that the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union has not really fostered the shift of the Tunisian Economy towards a more inclusive model and support the argument for a reorientation of investment policy in favour of sectors generating more job opportunities.

This study uses data envelopment analysis and a two-stage procedure to compare the performance of Tunisian tourism destinations and to examine the impact of investment (public and private), economic circumstances, workers skills, and travel agent number on the efficiency of Tunisian tourism destinations. In the first stage, the efficiency score is calculated. This calculation is followed in the second stage with a bootstrapped truncated regression model examining the effects of the cited variables to determine the best development strategy that can increase the tourism competitiveness of Tunisian tourism destinations. This study has six major conclusions. First, the test results confirm that the destination efficiency is sensitive to public and private investment in the tourism industry. Second, the trade deficit has a significant negative impact on the efficiency of the country destinations. Third, tourism education and training in Tunisia do not meet the Tunisian tourist market needs. Fourth, the wage level in the tourism sector positively affects the performance of destinations. Fifth, whereas the number of Type A (hold and sell travel) travel agencies positively affects the performance of a destination, Type B agencies (only sell travels) negatively influence it. Last, tourism destinations have to develop commodities, tourism monuments, leisure activities, and other para-tourism activities to attract more tourists or to improve their length of stay.

This paper aims to test jointly two economic puzzles: the effect of financial development and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on economic growth. Theories predict a positive effect of financial development and ICT on growth but empirical studies on these relationships produced mixed results. Further, we investigate the interaction between financial development and ICT Diffusion to test whether the impact of financial development on growth is strengthened by better ICT infrastructure. In this paper we assess empirically these relationships in some MENA countries. The empirical study is based on estimation of a dynamic panel model with system GMM estimators. There are three main findings. First, our empirical results join empirical literature that find a negative direct effect of financial development on economic growth. This ambiguous relationship may be linked to many phenomenons but there are not yet clear explanations of this puzzle. Second, the estimates reveal a positive and significant direct effect of ICT proxies on economic growth. This implies that MENA countries need to reinforce their ICT policies and improve using of new Information and Communication Technology. Finally, the interaction between ICT penetration and financial development is found positive and significant in the growth regression. This implies that economies in Mena region can benefit from financial development only once a threshold of ICT development is reached.

In this work we have achieved an empirical estimation for the growth experiences in MENA regions, from 1990 to 2010, by measuring the spatial effects that is related to corruption and geography. We use the institution quality index corruption control (CORR) to measure the absolute location effect owing to country specific institution. We use the latitude of country’s centroid to measure the absolute location effect owing to geography (GEO). The spatial diagnostics indicates that there is a spatial autocorrelation. The obtained results indicate that we have to use the spatial error model rather than the spatial lag model. These effects have been modeled by using spatial error model and by using a spatial weight matrix. In this framework, the corruption control is strongly and positively related to the economic growth rate than the geography. The control of corruption has a dominant role than geographical factor to determine the growth in MENA region. The obtained result confirms the primacy of institutions over geography.

International audience; Background Public district hospitals (PDHs) in Tunisia are not operating at full plant capacity and underutilize their operating budget. Methods Individual PDHs capacity utilization (CU) is measured for 2000 and 2010 using dual data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach with shadow prices input and output restrictions. The CU is estimated for 101 of 105 PDH in 2000 and 94 of 105 PDH in 2010. Results In average, unused capacity is estimated at 18% in 2010 vs. 13% in 2000. Of PDHs 26% underutilize their operating budget in 2010 vs. 21% in 2000. Conclusion Inadequate supply, health quality and the lack of operating budget should be tackled to reduce unmet user’s needs and the bypassing of the PDHs and, thus to increase their CU. Social health insurance should be turned into a direct purchaser of curative and preventive care for the PDHs.

The standard Hecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson framework claimed that foreign trade benefits developing countries, but many empirical studies suggest otherwise. After analyzing data on income deciles from the World Income Distribution Database for 66 developing countries, we found that trade openness benefits underprivileged people in affluent countries but not in developing countries. Also, external financial flows and democracy in conjunction do not exert significant effects, suggesting that these variables might affect income distribution through different channels. Finally, we reinforce the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis; namely, the presence of an economic development threshold beyond which low-income deciles would increase.

The authors study the dividend policy of 48 firms listed on the Tunisian Stock Exchange during the period 1996–2002. The study tests whether or not managers of Tunisian listed firms smooth their dividends. Moreover, the study outlines the main determinants that may drive the dividend policy of Tunisian quoted firms. To answer the first question, we use Lintner's model in a dynamic setting. The results clearly demonstrate that Tunisian firms rely on both current earnings and past dividends to fix their dividend payment. However, the study shows that dividends tend to be more sensitive to current earnings than prior dividends. To find out the determinants of dividend policy, dynamic panel regressions have been performed. First, profitable firms with more stable earnings can afford larger free cash flows and thus pay larger dividends. Furthermore, they distribute larger dividends whenever they are growing fast. However, neither the ownership concentration nor the financial leverage seems to have any impact on dividend policy in Tunisia. Also, the liquidity of stock market and size negatively impacts the dividend payment. The results are somewhat robust to different specifications.

The value-relevance of the major corporate financial variables for Tunisian listed companies is investigated using a levels-based approach. The theoretical background of the paper is based on Ohlson's work (Contemporary Accounting Research, 11(2), 661–87, 1995) and Rees’ empirical paper (Journal of Business, Finance and Economics, 24, 1111–40, 1997). This paper reports that earnings and book value are value-relevant. It is found that dividend policy is a signalling device for Tunisian companies but debt and investment policies are not value-relevant. The results of segmentation by capitalization show that dividend policy is value-relevant only for smaller firms. The dividend coefficient is considerably larger for the medium ROE group and the book value variable is most influential when return on equity is abnormally high.

This paper investigates the value creation process in the Tunisia stock exchange using a sample including more than 90% of the listed companies. In order to find out the determinants of the value creation of the selected companies, it uses the random probit model estimation procedure with unbalanced panel data. The results indicate that the probability of creating future values is positively and significantly correlated with profitability factor. In addition, the results also suggest that the value creation is affected by industry patterns (listed banks are the more value creator in the Tunisia stock exchange), by size (the probability to create value is stronger in small firms than in big ones) and by nature of property (the probability to create value is stronger in private-owned firms than in public-owned ones). Last but not least, the time trend factor is positive and highly significant. This finding suggests that the progressive reforms of the Tunisian stock exchange have attracted new investors, who...

Technical Efficiency and Wage Incentives – an Empirical Analysis Based on an Incomplete Panel of Tunisian Textile Industries by Rym Ben Ayed Mouelhi and Mohamed Goaïed This study combines the stochastic production frontiers approach with the efficiency wage approach to identify two technical inefficiency components. The first component is observable and varies over time. It measures the technical inefficiency resulting from an inadequate wage incentive. The second component remains stable over time and concerns unobservable company-specific technical inefficiency. This paper sets out to estimate the time-stable technical efficiency component whilst controlling the company-specific effects using instrumental variable techniques applied to incomplete panels. Labour and capital production factors are measured by some of their qualitative characteristics, i. e. technological progress incorporated into equipment and manpower by skills level. The study then empirically checks the wage-productivity relationship before estimating the technical inefficiency attributable to a lack of effort. The empirical analysis considers a non-cylinder panel of 619 Tunisian textile companies studied from 1983 to 1994. The estimation results point to a decline in autonomous technological progress from 1983 to 1990. Moreover, productivity gains are generated by technological progress incorporated into equipment and manpower skills. The unobservable efficiency is approximately 61% on average. The inefficiency ascribable to a lack of effort is approximately 4% on average., Cette étude présente la particularité de combiner l'approche des frontières de production stochastiques avec celle du salaire d'efficience de manière à pouvoir identifier deux composantes de l'inefficience technique. La première composante observable, et variante dans le temps, mesure l'inefficience technique imputable à un manque d'incitation salariale. La seconde composante, invariante dans le temps, constitue une inefficience technique inobservable spécifique à la firme. Ce travail se propose d'estimer la composante de l’inefficience technique invariante dans le temps tout en permettant de contrôler les effets spécifiques à la firme, ceci grâce aux techniques des variables instrumentales dans le contexte général des panels incomplets. Les facteurs de production capital et travail sont mesurés en intégrant certaines de leurs caractéristiques qualitatives ; i. e. le progrès technique incorporé aux équipements et la main-d’oeuvre selon le niveau de qualification. Une validation empirique de la relation salaire-productivité est effectuée dans cette étude. Enfin, une estimation de l'inefficience technique attribuable au manque d'effort est réalisée. L'analyse empirique porte sur un panel non cylindré comportant 619 entreprises tunisiennes du secteur textile recensées durant la période [ 1983-1994]. Les résultats d'estimation indiquent une régression du progrès technique autonome durant la période [ 1983-1990]. En outre, le progrès technique incorporé aux équipements et la qualification de la main-d'oeuvre constituent des sources de gain de productivité. L'efficacité non observable est en moyenne de l''ordre de 61%. Par ailleurs, l'inefficience imputable à un manque d'effort est en moyenne de l'ordre de 4%., Ben Ayed Mouelhi Rym, Goaïed Mohamed. Efficience technique et incitations salariales. Analyse empirique sur un panel incomplet des industries textiles en Tunisie. In: Économie & prévision, n°148, 2001-2. pp. 99-111.

This paper is concerned with the estimation of stochastic frontier production functions with unbalanced panel data when unobservable firm efficiency levels are related to explanatory variables. ≪We use the weighted-means≫ Instrumental Variables method acknowledged to R. Gardner (1998) which is a modification of the Hausman-Taylor (1981) procedure adapted for unbalanced panel data. The estimation method is used to examine technical efficiency in Tunisian textile, clothing and leather (TCL) industries during the period 1983–1994. Further, we assume a Translog production frontier where input uses are expressed in efficiency units and adjusted for the age of capital and types of labor. Firm-specific time-invariant technical efficiency is obtained using Schmidt and Sickles (1984) approach. The results suggest that the Instrumental Variables method produces more accurate estimates of the unknown firm level technical efficency. Mean efficency scores resulting from the MHT method is of 66.5%.

French Abstract: L’objectif de ces modules consiste a demystifier l’econometrie et a aider les chercheurs de tout bord (universitaires et praticiens) a se familiariser avec les techniques econometriques les plus utilisees grâce a l’usage des logiciels econometriques les plus repandus, tels que Stata et E-Views. English Abstract: The aim of these modules is to demystify applied econometrics and to help researchers (academics and practitioners) to use the most widely used econometric software such as Stata and E-Views.

Mikroökonometrische Analyse der Nachfrage nach stâdtischen Verkehrsleistungen in Tunis, von Samir Ghazouani und Mohamed Goaïed. Dieser Artikel enthält eine Analyse der Nachfrage nach städtischen Verkehrsleistungen in Tunis. Hierbei wird auf die Modelle der diskreten Auswahl zurückgegriffen, die sich aus einer Maximierung des aleatorischen Nutzens ergeben. Zu diesem Zweck kommen zwei besondere Versionen dieser Modelle zur Anwendung, und zwar das unabhängige Probit-Modell und das multinomiale Logit-Modéll., Micro-econometric Analysis of the Demand for Urban Transport in Tunis, by Samir Ghazouani and Mohamed Goaïed. This article presents an analysis of the demand for urban transport in Tunis by using carefully chosen models resulting from a optimization of random utility. To this end, two distinctive versions of these models are applied: the independent Probit and the multinomial Logit., Analyse micro-économétrique de la demande de transport urbain pour la ville de Tunis, par Samir Ghazouani, Mohamed Goaïed. Cet article présente une analyse de la demande de transport urbain pour la ville de Tunis en ayant recours aux modèles de choix discret, qui découlent d'une maximisation d'utilité aléatoire. À cette fin, deux versions particulières de ces modèles sont appliquées : leProbit indépendant et le Logit multinomial., Análisis microeconómico de la demanda de transporte urbano para la ciudad de Túnez, por Samir Ghazouani y Mohamed Goaïed. En este artículo se presenta un análisis de la demanda de transporte urbano para la ciudad de Túnez recurriendose para ello a los modelos de elección discreta, résultantes de una maximización de utilidad aleatoria. Con este fin, se aplican dos versiones de dichos modelos: el Probit independiente y el Logit multinomial., Ghazouani Samir, Goaïed Mohamed. Analyse micro-économétrique de la demande de transport urbain pour la ville de Tunis. In: Économie & prévision, n°108, 1993-2. pp. 47-62.

This paper investigates the determinants of the Tunisian banks' performances during the period 1980–1995. Results show that the principal determinants of a bank's performance are by order of importance: labour productivity, bank portofolio composition, capital productivity and bank capitalization.

For a number of MENA economies, the barriers to entrepreneurship manifest by the unfriendly environment for start-ups and relatively high regulatory and administrative burdens are estimated to be among the highest in the world. Potential investors and existing firms in those countries face a complex regulations and licensing requirements which are often unclear or inconsistent with international norms. Policy, regulatory and institutional distortions, as well as constraints and barriers to efficient private sector investment, operations and exit, are then prevalent throughout the region. Complexity and the rents created by economic distortions breed administrative discretion and corruption. The bureaucratic burden is often especially heavy for small and medium enterprises. Higher levels of government rent seeking and/or bureaucratic obstacles to legal firm entry will lead to a greater bifurcation of firm sizes – very small informal firms, relatively large formal firms and an absence of medium sized formal firms.

The ability to accurately predict potential corporate distress and to provide early warnings has become of interest not only to managers but also to external stakeholders of a company. In this way, and since there are very distinct differences in the accounting procedures and the quality of financial statements between the firms in Tunisia and those in the other countries, it may not be rational to adopt models developed elsewhere to forecast the potential distressed situations. Hence, the purpose of this study is to examine the effect of logistic regression on bankruptcy prediction accuracy of the Tunisian firms. Applying this statistical technique to a sample of 214 distressed companies, and 1550 "healthy" we determine those financial ratios that establish the differences between these groups, and thus predict possible financial distress. The results demonstrate that profitability, solvency and debt ratios are among the most significant ones for the wholesale and retail companies. For the manufacturing companies, profitability and leverage ratios are the most significant ones.

Through a cross sectional analysis of 48 firms, over a seven-year period, from 1996 to 2002, we try to shed some light into two sides. First of all, we research whether managers smooth their dividend policies or not. Besides, we outline the main determinants that may influence the dividend policy pattern. Specifically, we attempt to find answers to the following questions: Do Tunisian firms follow stable dividend policies or not? Do dividend yields differ across industries? What are the main factors that determine the dividend policy making? In the first section, Lintner's model is applied. Our results show that Tunisian firms rely on both current earnings and past dividends. However, it seems that dividends tend to be more sensitive to current earnings than prior dividends. Any variability in the earnings of the corporation is directly reflected in the level of dividends. However, dividend policy does vary across financial and non-financial industries. Our results uncover a low target payout ratio of respectively 16% and 27% for non-financial and financial firms while the adjustment speed respectively ranges from 0.68 to 1.56. Non-financial institutions adopt therefore a more smoothing dividend policy. Secondly, through a fully developed model, we highlight some factors that may influence the dividend policy pattern. First, riskier firms with high financial leverage pay out fewer dividends and have lower dividend yields. Furthermore, high-profitability firms with more stable earnings can also afford more dividends. However, larger investment opportunities deprive firms from higher dividends. Similarly, growing firms distribute fewer dividends. Additionally, dividends serve to reduce agency costs between the shareholders themselves only whereas the conflicts between insiders and outsiders seem to be not resolved with dividends. This matter holds true only in non-financial firms. In this vein, it should be noted that our analysis does show significant differences throughout financial versus non-financial industries. Finally, the size of Tunisian corporations has a systematic negative effect on dividend policy.

This paper investigates the impact of banks' characteristics, financial structure and macroeconomic indicators on banks' net interest margins and profitability in the Tunisian banking industry for the 1980-2000 period. First, individual bank characteristics explain a substantial part of the within-country variation in bank interest margins and net profitability. High net interest margin and profitability tend to be associated with banks that hold a relatively high amount of capital, and with large overheads. Second, the paper finds that the inflation has a positive impact on banks' net interest margin while economic growth has no incidence Third, turning to financial structure and its impact on banks' interest margin and profitability, we find that concentration is less beneficial to the Tunisian commercial banks than competition. Stock market development has a positive effect on bank profitability. This reflects the complementarities between bank and stock market growth. We have found that the disintermediation of the Tunisian financial system is favourable to the banking sector profitability.

Cet article étudie le rapport entre les transferts de fonds des travailleurs migrants et les inégalités de revenu dans les pays récipiendaires. Nous cherchons en particulier à vérifier si la relation est non linéaire et tributaire d’un ensemble de facteurs tel que l’origine sociale du migrant. L’étude porte sur un panel de 66 pays en développement couvrant la période 1984-2010 et tient compte de l’endogénéité potentielle des transferts de fonds. Les conclusions montrent que les transferts de fonds permettent de réduire les inégalités de revenu dans les pays économiquement développés et/ou les pays qui exportent moins de main-d’oeuvre qualifiée et dont les coûts migratoires sont faibles, à l’instar de la région MENA, de l’Europe de l’Est et de l’Asie centrale. En revanche, les migrants originaires de l’Afrique subsaharienne ne connaissent pas ce phénomène., This paper addresses the relationship between workers migrant’s transfers and income inequality in the recipient’s countries. Particularly, we address the assumption whether the effect of remittances on income inequality is linear or depends on a set of conditions like migrant’s social origin. We use a panel of 66 developing countries covering the period 1984-2010. Our econometric methodology controls for endogeneity issues, econometric results do not reject the developed assumption: workers’ remittance lower income inequality if the recipient countries are economically developed and have a low level of brain drain and apply a soft cost for migration. The regional model highlights that MENA region and east Europe and central Asia export poor migrants.

This thesis examines the macroeconomic consequences of capital and external financial flows in developing countries. While the first part of the thesis focuses on the economic effects of external flows, the second and third parts of the thesis analyse the distributional repercussions. Having focused on the measurement and concepts that may influence the movement of the exchange rate (ER) (Chapter 1), the thesis reveals a set of results. First, foreign direct investment (FDI) and workers remittances are favourable in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. However, official flows; portfolio flows and border bank loans confirm the Dutch disease mechanism. The presence of institutional quality mitigates the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) (Chapter 2). Second, after analysing the methodological difficulties of the empirical study (Chapter 3), the results confirm that the assumptions of Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson do not corroborate with the real world. Trade openness is not pro-poor in developing countries. The lack of robustness of capital and external flows on income shares requires a deep analysis and lead to the third part of the thesis (Chapter 4). Third, on the one hand, remittances are pro-poor when the representative migrant is issued from a poor family, living in a rich country or in a low brain drain country and in low passport costs country. On the other hand, remittances are pro-rich when the money transfer costs are high, this reflects the use of the informal channels at the expense of formal channels (Chapter 5). Development aid is pro-rich in democratic countries and pro-poor in middle income countries (less aid dependent countries)., Cette thèse étudie les conséquences macroéconomiques des afflux de capitaux et de financements extérieurs dans les pays en développement. La première partie de la thèse s’intéresse à l’effet économique des financements extérieurs, alors que les deuxième et troisième parties de la thèse analysent l’effet distributif. Après avoir mis l’accent sur les mesures et les concepts susceptibles d’influer le mouvement du taux de change (TC) (Chapitre 1), la thèse révèle un ensemble de résultats. Premièrement, les investissements directs à l’étranger (IDE) et les transferts des migrants sont propices au sein de la région MENA (Middle East and North Africa), néanmoins les flux officiels, de portefeuilles et les prêts bancaires confirment le mécanisme du syndrome hollandais. La présence d’un faible risque politique ; économique et financier permettent d’atténuer l’appréciation du Taux de Change Effectif Réel (Chapitre 2). Deuxièmement, après avoir analysé les difficultés d’ordre méthodologique de l’étude empirique (Chapitre 3), les résultats confirment la mise en cause des hypothèses d’Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson. L’ouverture commerciale n’est pas pro-pauvre dans les pays en développement. L’absence d’un effet robuste de l’impact des afflux de financements extérieurs sur les parts de revenu appelle à une investigation profonde et nous conduit à la troisième partie de la thèse (Chapitre 4). Troisièmement, les transferts des migrants sont d’une part pro-pauvres lorsque le migrant représentatif est d’origine sociale pauvre résident dans un pays riche, de niveau d’émigration qualifiée faible et où le coût d’obtention de passeport est faible. D’autre part, les transferts des migrants sont pro-riches lorsque les coûts de transfert d’argent sont élevés, ce qui se traduit par l’exploitation des canaux informels au détriment des canaux formels (Chapitre 5). L’aide au développement est pro-riche au sein des pays démocratiques et pro-pauvres au sein des pays à niveau de revenu moyen qui sont moins dépendants à l’aide (Chapitre 6).