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Your search keyword '"Mogstad, M."' showing total 11 results
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11 results on '"Mogstad, M."'

1. Finite- and Large-sample Inference for Ranks Using Multinomial Data with an Application to Ranking Political Parties

Author

Bazylik, S., Mogstad, M., Romano, J.P., Shaikh, A.M., and Wilhelm, D.

Subjects
surveys, multiple testing, polls, confidence sets
Abstract

It is common to rank different categories by means of preferences that are revealed through data on choices. A prominent example is the ranking of political candidates or parties using the estimated share of support each one receives in surveys or polls about political attitudes. Since these rankings are computed using estimates of the share of support rather than the true share of support, there may be considerable uncertainty concerning the true ranking of the political candidates or parties. In this paper, we consider the problem of accounting for such uncertainty by constructing confidence sets for the rank of each category. We consider both the problem of constructing marginal confidence sets for the rank of a particular category as well as simultaneous confidence sets for the ranks of all categories. A distinguishing feature of our analysis is that we exploit the multinomial structure of the data to develop confidence sets that are valid in finite samples. We additionally develop confidence sets using the bootstrap that are valid only approximately in large samples. We use our methodology to rank political parties in Australia using data from the 2019 Australian Election Survey. We find that our finite-sample confidence sets are informative across the entire ranking of political parties, even in Australian territories with few survey respondents and/or with parties that are chosen by only a small share of the survey respondents. In contrast, the bootstrap-based confidence sets may sometimes be considerably less informative. These findings motivate us to compare these methods in an empirically-driven simulation study, in which we conclude that our finite-sample confidence sets often perform better than their large-sample, bootstrap-based counterparts, especially in settings that resemble our empirical application.

Published
2022
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7. Essays in the economics of taxes and transfers across the lifecycle

Author

Shaw, J. M., Blundell, R., and Mogstad, M.

Subjects
330
Abstract

This thesis contains four papers on the economics of taxes and transfers across the lifecycle. The first paper takes an ex post perspective and considers the lifetime distributional impact of tax and transfer reforms. It shows that, accounting for realistic patterns of mobility in employment, earnings and household circumstances, a lifecycle perspective greatly affects assessments of the distributional effects of tax and transfer reforms. The focus is on three reforms modelled in the UK context: (i) changes to out-of-work versus in-work benefits, (ii) adjustments to income tax rates, and (iii) reforms to indirect taxation. In all three cases, the long-run distributional impact differs to a standard cross-section analysis in important ways. The second paper takes an ex ante perspective, seeking to understand how much redistribution and insurance tax and transfer systems achieve across the lifecycle, and what value individuals place on these components. The paper again focuses on the UK system, finding that it does substantially more within-individual redistribution and insurance and less between-individual redistribution and insurance than a flat-rate baseline. This reflects the fact that many of the circumstances that taxes and transfers condition on are transitory. A substantial welfare value is attached to the insurance component, but additional within-individual redistribution is worthless, even in the presence of strict borrowing constraints. The third paper provides an empirical account of the dynamic return to work, and how this is affected by taxes and benefits. Previous literature has focused on the current period return. The paper defines two new summary measures that incorporate future returns - the forward-looking replacement rate (FLRR) and the forward-looking participation tax rate (FLPTR) - and implements them using simulated data for the UK. The results show that the dynamic return to work is much higher than a static measure would imply but that a dynamic perspective makes relatively little difference to the extent to which personal taxes and transfers reduce the return to work. The fourth paper studies the dynamic benefits of conducting audits, focusing on how the reported tax liability of audited individuals responds after an audit. Exploiting data from a random audit program covering income tax self-assessment returns in the UK, the paper finds that audits have a significant positive - but short-lived - impact on reported tax liability. The response is concentrated among types of income that are subject to little or no third-party reporting.

Published
2017

8. Combining Matching and Synthetic Control to Trade off Biases from Extrapolation and Interpolation.

Author

Kellogg M, Mogstad M, Pouliot GA, and Torgovitsky A

Abstract

The synthetic control (SC) method is widely used in comparative case studies to adjust for differences in pre-treatment characteristics. SC limits extrapolation bias at the potential expense of interpolation bias, whereas traditional matching estimators have the opposite properties. This complementarity motives us to propose a matching and synthetic control (or MASC) estimator as a model averaging estimator that combines the standard SC and matching estimators. We show how to use a rolling-origin cross-validation procedure to train the MASC to resolve trade-offs between interpolation and extrapolation bias. We use a series of empirically-based placebo and Monte Carlo simulations to shed light on when the SC, matching, MASC and penalized SC estimators do (and do not) perform well. Then, we apply these estimators to examine the economic costs of conflicts in the context of Spain.

Published
2021
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10. How Financial Incentives Induce Disability Insurance Recipients to Return to Work.

Author

Kostol AR and Mogstad M

Subjects
Adult, Humans, Norway, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Social Security economics, United States, Insurance, Disability economics, Motivation, Return to Work economics, Reward
Abstract

Using a local randomized experiment that arises from a sharp discontinuity in Disability Insurance (DI) policy in Norway, we provide transparent and credible identification of how financial incentives induce DI recipients to return to work. We find that many DI recipients have considerable capacity to work that can be effectively induced by providing financial work incentives. We further show that providing work incentives to DI recipients may both increase their disposable income and reduce program costs. Our findings also suggest that targeted policies may be the most effective in encouraging DI recipients to return to work.

Published
2014

11. Divorced fathers' proximity and children's long-run outcomes: evidence from Norwegian registry data.

Author

Kalil A, Mogstad M, Rege M, and Votruba M

Subjects
Adult, Age Factors, Child, Divorce economics, Educational Status, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Maternal Age, Norway, Paternal Age, Regression Analysis, Socioeconomic Factors, Young Adult, Child Development, Divorce statistics & numerical data, Father-Child Relations
Abstract

This study examines the link between divorced nonresident fathers' proximity and children's long-run outcomes, using high-quality data from Norwegian population registers. We follow (from birth to young adulthood) each of 15,992 children born into married households in Norway in the years 1975-1979 whose parents divorced during his or her childhood. We observe the proximity of the child to his or her father in each year following the divorce and link proximity to educational and economic outcomes for the child in young adulthood, controlling for a wide range of observable characteristics of the parents and the child. Our results show that closer proximity to the father following a divorce has, on average, a modest negative association with offspring's outcomes in young adulthood. The negative associations are stronger among children of highly educated fathers. Complementary Norwegian survey data show that highly educated fathers report more post-divorce conflict with their ex-wives as well as more contact with their children (measured in terms of the number of nights that the child spends at the father's house). Consequently, the father's relocation to a more distant location following the divorce may shelter the child from disruptions in the structure of the child's life as they split time between households and/or from post-divorce interparental conflict.

Published
2011
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