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3. Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints

Author

Marcoci, Alexandru, Wilkinson, David P., Vercammen, Ans, Wintle, Bonnie C., Abatayo, Anna Lou, Baskin, Ernest, Berkman, Henk, Buchanan, Erin M., Capitán, Sara, Capitán, Tabaré, Chan, Ginny, Cheng, Kent Jason G., Coupé, Tom, Dryhurst, Sarah, Duan, Jianhua, Edlund, John E., Errington, Timothy M., Fedor, Anna, Fidler, Fiona, Field, James G., Fox, Nicholas, Fraser, Hannah, Freeman, Alexandra L. J., Hanea, Anca, Holzmeister, Felix, Hong, Sanghyun, Huggins, Raquel, Huntington-Klein, Nick, Johannesson, Magnus, Jones, Angela M., Kapoor, Hansika, Kerr, John, Kline Struhl, Melissa, Kołczyńska, Marta, Liu, Yang, Loomas, Zachary, Luis, Brianna, Méndez, Esteban, Miske, Olivia, Mody, Fallon, Nast, Carolin, Nosek, Brian A., Simon Parsons, E., Pfeiffer, Thomas, Reed, W. Robert, Roozenbeek, Jon, Schlyfestone, Alexa R., Schneider, Claudia R., Soh, Andrew, Song, Zhongchen, Tagat, Anirudh, Tutor, Melba, Tyner, Andrew H., Urbanska, Karolina, and van der Linden, Sander

Published
2024
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4. Prevalence of transparent research practices in psychology: A cross-sectional study of empirical articles published in 2022

Author

Hardwicke, Tom Elis, primary, Thibault, Robert T., additional, Clarke, Beth, additional, Moodie, Nicholas, additional, Crüwell, Sophia, additional, Schiavone, Sarah R., additional, Handcock, Sarah, additional, Nghiem, Khanh An, additional, Mody, Fallon, additional, Eerola, Tuomas, additional, and Vazire, Simine, additional

Published
2024
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5. Predicting and reasoning about replicability using structured groups

Author

Wintle, Bonnie C, Smith, Eden T, Bush, Martin, Mody, Fallon, Wilkinson, David P, Hanea, Anca M, Marcoci, Alexandru, Fraser, Hannah, Hemming, Victoria, Thorn, Felix Singleton, McBride, Marissa F, Gould, Elliot, Head, Andrew, Hamilton, Daniel G, Kambouris, Steven, Rumpff, Libby, Hoekstra, Rink, Burgman, Mark A, Fidler, Fiona, Wintle, Bonnie C. [0000-0003-0236-6906], Smith, Eden T. [0000-0003-4058-6619], Bush, Martin [0000-0001-9018-4373], Mody, Fallon [0000-0002-0596-7590], Wilkinson, David P. [0000-0002-9560-6499], Hanea, Anca M. [0000-0003-3870-5949], Marcoci, Alexandru [0000-0002-5780-0805], Fraser, Hannah [0000-0003-2443-4463], Hemming, Victoria [0000-0003-3220-6161], Thorn, Felix Singleton [0000-0002-0237-6146], McBride, Marissa F. [0000-0002-7498-292X], Gould, Elliot [0000-0002-6585-538X], Head, Andrew [0000-0001-6710-9340], Hamilton, Daniel G. [0000-0001-8104-474X], Kambouris, Steven [0000-0002-3876-7472], Rumpff, Libby [0000-0001-9400-8086], Hoekstra, Rink [0000-0002-1588-7527], Burgman, Mark A. [0000-0003-0435-4829], Fidler, Fiona [0000-0002-2700-2562], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Wintle, Bonnie C [0000-0003-0236-6906], Smith, Eden T [0000-0003-4058-6619], Wilkinson, David P [0000-0002-9560-6499], Hanea, Anca M [0000-0003-3870-5949], McBride, Marissa F [0000-0002-7498-292X], Hamilton, Daniel G [0000-0001-8104-474X], and Burgman, Mark A [0000-0003-0435-4829]

Subjects
metascience, replication, mixed methods, forecasting, meta-research, expert judgement
Abstract

This paper explores judgements about the replicability of social and behavioural sciences research and what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on qualitative and quantitative data elicited from groups using a structured approach called the IDEA protocol ('investigate', 'discuss', 'estimate' and 'aggregate'). Five groups of five people with relevant domain expertise evaluated 25 research claims that were subject to at least one replication study. Participants assessed the probability that each of the 25 research claims would replicate (i.e. that a replication study would find a statistically significant result in the same direction as the original study) and described the reasoning behind those judgements. We quantitatively analysed possible correlates of predictive accuracy, including self-rated expertise and updating of judgements after feedback and discussion. We qualitatively analysed the reasoning data to explore the cues, heuristics and patterns of reasoning used by participants. Participants achieved 84% classification accuracy in predicting replicability. Those who engaged in a greater breadth of reasoning provided more accurate replicability judgements. Some reasons were more commonly invoked by more accurate participants, such as 'effect size' and 'reputation' (e.g. of the field of research). There was also some evidence of a relationship between statistical literacy and accuracy.

Published
2023

6. Predicting and reasoning about replicability using structured groups

Author

Wintle, Bonnie C., primary, Smith, Eden T., additional, Bush, Martin, additional, Mody, Fallon, additional, Wilkinson, David P., additional, Hanea, Anca M., additional, Marcoci, Alexandru, additional, Fraser, Hannah, additional, Hemming, Victoria, additional, Thorn, Felix Singleton, additional, McBride, Marissa F., additional, Gould, Elliot, additional, Head, Andrew, additional, Hamilton, Daniel G., additional, Kambouris, Steven, additional, Rumpff, Libby, additional, Hoekstra, Rink, additional, Burgman, Mark A., additional, and Fidler, Fiona, additional

Published
2023
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7. Supplementary material containing the elicitation questions, additional methodological details and further results from Predicting and reasoning about replicability using structured groups

Author

Wintle, Bonnie C., Smith, Eden T., Bush, Martin, Mody, Fallon, Wilkinson, David P., Hanea, Anca M., Marcoci, Alexandru, Fraser, Hannah, Hemming, Victoria, Thorn, Felix Singleton, McBride, Marissa F., Gould, Elliot, Head, Andrew, Hamilton, Daniel G., Kambouris, Steven, Rumpff, Libby, Hoekstra, Rink, Burgman, Mark A., and Fidler, Fiona

Abstract

This paper explores judgements about the replicability of social and behavioural sciences research and what drives those judgements. Using a mixed methods approach, it draws on qualitative and quantitative data elicited from groups using a structured approach called the IDEA protocol (‘investigate’, ‘discuss’, ‘estimate’ and ‘aggregate’). Five groups of five people with relevant domain expertise evaluated 25 research claims that were subject to at least one replication study. Participants assessed the probability that each of the 25 research claims would replicate (i.e. that a replication study would find a statistically significant result in the same direction as the original study) and described the reasoning behind those judgements. We quantitatively analysed possible correlates of predictive accuracy, including self-rated expertise and updating of judgements after feedback and discussion. We qualitatively analysed the reasoning data to explore the cues, heuristics and patterns of reasoning used by participants. Participants achieved 84% classification accuracy in predicting replicability. Those who engaged in a greater breadth of reasoning provided more accurate replicability judgements. Some reasons were more commonly invoked by more accurate participants, such as ‘effect size’ and ‘reputation’ (e.g. of the field of research). There was also some evidence of a relationship between statistical literacy and accuracy.

Published
2023
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8. Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process

Author

Fraser, Hannah, primary, Bush, Martin, additional, Wintle, Bonnie C., additional, Mody, Fallon, additional, Smith, Eden T., additional, Hanea, Anca M., additional, Gould, Elliot, additional, Hemming, Victoria, additional, Hamilton, Daniel G., additional, Rumpff, Libby, additional, Wilkinson, David P., additional, Pearson, Ross, additional, Singleton Thorn, Felix, additional, Ashton, Raquel, additional, Willcox, Aaron, additional, Gray, Charles T., additional, Head, Andrew, additional, Ross, Melissa, additional, Groenewegen, Rebecca, additional, Marcoci, Alexandru, additional, Vercammen, Ans, additional, Parker, Timothy H., additional, Hoekstra, Rink, additional, Nakagawa, Shinichi, additional, Mandel, David R., additional, van Ravenzwaaij, Don, additional, McBride, Marissa, additional, Sinnott, Richard O., additional, Vesk, Peter, additional, Burgman, Mark, additional, and Fidler, Fiona, additional

Published
2023
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10. Predicting and reasoning about replicability using structured groups

Author

Wintle, Bonnie, primary, Mody, Fallon, additional, Smith, Eden T., additional, Hanea, Anca, additional, Wilkinson, David Peter, additional, Hemming, Victoria, additional, Bush, Martin, additional, Fraser, Hannah, additional, Singleton Thorn, Felix, additional, McBride, Marissa, additional, Gould, Elliot, additional, Head, Andrew, additional, Hamilton, Daniel George, additional, Rumpff, Libby, additional, Hoekstra, Rink, additional, and Fidler, Fiona, additional

Published
2021
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11. Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE)

Author

Alipourfard, Nazanin, primary, Arendt, Beatrix, additional, Benjamin, Daniel M., additional, Benkler, Noam, additional, Bishop, Michael Metcalf, additional, Burstein, Mark, additional, Bush, Martin, additional, Caverlee, James, additional, Chen, Yiling, additional, Clark, Chae, additional, Dreber, Anna, additional, Errington, Timothy M., additional, Fidler, Fiona, additional, Fox, Nicholas William, additional, Frank, Aaron, additional, Fraser, Hannah, additional, Friedman, Scott, additional, Gelman, Ben, additional, Gentile, James, additional, Giles, C Lee, additional, Gordon, Michael B, additional, Gordon-Sarney, Reed, additional, Griffin, Christopher, additional, Gulden, Timothy, additional, Hahn, Krystal, additional, Hartman, Robert, additional, Holzmeister, Felix, additional, Hu, Xia Ben, additional, Johannesson, Magnus, additional, Kezar, Lee, additional, Kline Struhl, Melissa, additional, Kuter, Ugur, additional, Kwasnica, Anthony M., additional, Lee, Dong-Ho, additional, Lerman, Kristina, additional, Liu, Yang, additional, Loomas, Zachary, additional, Luis, Brianna, additional, Magnusson, Ian, additional, Miske, Olivia, additional, Mody, Fallon, additional, Morstatter, Fred, additional, Nosek, Brian A., additional, Parsons, Elan Simon, additional, Pennock, David, additional, Pfeiffer, Thomas, additional, Pujara, Jay, additional, Rajtmajer, Sarah, additional, Ren, Xiang, additional, Salinas, Abel, additional, Selvam, Ravi Kiran, additional, Shipman, Frank, additional, Silverstein, Priya, additional, Sprenger, Amber, additional, Squicciarini, Anna Ms, additional, Stratman, Steve, additional, Sun, Kexuan, additional, Tikoo, Saatvik, additional, Twardy, Charles Richard, additional, Tyner, Andrew, additional, Viganola, Domenico, additional, Wang, Juntao, additional, Wilkinson, David Peter, additional, Wintle, Bonnie, additional, and Wu, Jian, additional

Published
2021
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12. Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures

Author

Hanea, Anca, primary, Wilkinson, David Peter, additional, McBride, Marissa, additional, Lyon, Aidan, additional, van Ravenzwaaij, Don, additional, Singleton Thorn, Felix, additional, Gray, Charles T., additional, Mandel, David R., additional, Willcox, Aaron, additional, Gould, Elliot, additional, Smith, Eden T., additional, Mody, Fallon, additional, Bush, Martin, additional, Fidler, Fiona, additional, Fraser, Hannah, additional, and Wintle, Bonnie, additional

Published
2021
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13. Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science)

Author

Fraser, Hannah, primary, Bush, Martin, additional, Wintle, Bonnie, additional, Mody, Fallon, additional, Smith, Eden T., additional, Hanea, Anca, additional, Gould, Elliot, additional, Hemming, Victoria, additional, Hamilton, Daniel George, additional, Rumpff, Libby, additional, Wilkinson, David Peter, additional, Pearson, Ross, additional, Singleton Thorn, Felix, additional, Ashton, raquel, additional, Willcox, Aaron, additional, Gray, Charles T., additional, Head, Andrew, additional, Ross, Melissa, additional, Groenewegen, Rebecca, additional, Marcoci, Alexandru, additional, Vercammen, Ans, additional, Parker, Timothy H., additional, Hoekstra, Rink, additional, Nakagawa, Shinichi, additional, Mandel, David R., additional, van Ravenzwaaij, Don, additional, McBride, Marissa, additional, Sinnott, Richard O., additional, Vesk, Peter Anton, additional, Burgman, Mark, additional, and Fidler, Fiona, additional

Published
2021
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15. Prevalence of Transparent Research Practices in Psychology: A Cross-Sectional Study of Empirical Articles Published in 2022

Author

Hardwicke, Tom E., Thibault, Robert T., Clarke, Beth, Moodie, Nicholas, Crüwell, Sophia, Schiavone, Sarah R., Handcock, Sarah A., Nghiem, Khanh An, Mody, Fallon, Eerola, Tuomas, and Vazire, Simine

Abstract

More than a decade of advocacy and policy reforms have attempted to increase the uptake of transparent research practices in the field of psychology; however, their collective impact is unclear. We estimated the prevalence of transparent research practices in (a) all psychology journals (i.e., field-wide), and (b) prominent psychology journals, by manually examining two random samples of 200 empirical articles (N= 400) published in 2022. Most articles had an open-access version (field-wide: 74%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [67%, 79%]; prominent: 71% [64%, 77%]) and included a funding statement (field-wide: 76% [70%, 82%]; prominent: 76% [70%, 82%]) or conflict-of-interest statement (field-wide: 76% [70%, 82%]; prominent: 73% [67%, 79%]). Relatively few articles had a preregistration (field-wide: 7% [2.5%, 12%]; prominent: 14% [8.5%, 19%]), materials (field-wide: 16% [9%, 24%]; prominent: 19% [12%, 27%]), raw/primary data (field-wide: 14% [7%, 21%]; prominent: 16% [9.5%, 24%]), or analysis scripts (field-wide: 8.5% [4.5%, 13%]; prominent: 14% [9.5%, 19%]) that were immediately accessible without contacting authors or third parties. In conjunction with prior research, our results suggest transparency increased moderately from 2017 to 2022. Overall, despite considerable infrastructure improvements, bottom-up advocacy, and top-down policy initiatives, research transparency continues to be widely neglected in psychology.

Published
2024
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17. Doctors down under: European medical migrants in Victoria (Australia), 1930-60

Author

Mody, Fallon and Mody, Fallon

Abstract

The middle of the twentieth-century saw an unprecedented mass relocation of medical practitioners – through forced migration, military service, and as economic migrants. Between 1930-60, over three thousand medical migrants – that is, overseas-trained medical graduates – are known to have arrived in Australia. Their arrival was transformative as they challenged longstanding Australian legislative structures, and came to occupy critical gaps in local medical manpower. However, medical migrants in Australia are understudied. My research begins to redress what historians have called the ‘conspicuous silence’ or ‘collective amnesia’ that characterises nation-centric medical histories, where medical migrants are largely invisible. Through a series of case studies, underpinned by a prosopographic database documenting over two hundred ‘European medical migrants’, I examine the resettlement and professional lives of two broad groups registered in the state of Victoria between 1930-60: British and Irish medical migrants (the privileged invisible) and continental European medical migrants (the marginalised ‘aliens’). Each case study can stand alone, and addresses an identified gap in the historiography. However, taken together, these case studies enable a more nuanced reflection of the differences and intersections between groups of medical migrants that historians have tacitly held as being too disparate to study collectively. Key outcomes of this research include the recovery and contextualisation of the ‘special types of labour’ medical migrants undertook; the impact of gender in the process; and the agency displayed by more marginalised groups of medical migrants.

Published
2018

20. '1000 BABIES CAN'T BE WRONG': LISTENING OUT FOR ARTHUR DEERY, AN ALIEN DOCTOR IN VICTORIA.

Author

Mody, Fallon

Abstract

In January 1961, fifty mothers marched through the Victorian town of Healesville demanding their doctor, who had been abruptly dismissed, be reinstated to the local hospital. The Sun reported they marched in "blistering, near-century heat" carrying placards that declared, "1000 Babies Can't Be Wrong" and "Doc Deery forever". The mainstream newsworthiness of this moment was who these white, middle-class mothers mobilised in support of: Doc Deery was a Hungarian Jewish "alien doctor" with "communistic ideas". Arthur Deery was among hundreds of refugee doctors who arrived in Australia in the 1930s. Historians have paid little attention to this group beyond representations of their marginalisation, as social and professional outsiders. In this paper, Fallon Mody will re-present Arthur Deery's migrant medical life, which spanned 40 years, and three country towns. In doing so, this research highlights how such biographical explorations enables what Greg Dening called "history's empowering force" to give us a deeper, more human understanding of being an "alien doctor" in Australia. The following is the written version of the paper presented by Dr Fallon Mody at the annual Greg Dening Memorial Lecture held at the Forum Lecture Theatre, University of Melbourne, 15 October 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020

21. Migrant medical women: a case study of British medical graduates in twentieth-century Australia.

Author

Mody, Fallon

Subjects
*WOMEN graduate students, *MEDICAL education, *MIDDLE class, *WOMEN immigrants
Abstract

The lives of medical women—with a few notable exceptions—remain marginal in the growing body of literature on the twentieth-century migration of medical practitioners. This article examines the professional experiences and outcomes of a group of women who trained as medical graduates in Britain and migrated to Australia—both temporarily, but often permanently. In exploring the professional lives of these women, this article extends histories of migrant women in Australia to include middle-class, professionally qualified British women. The collective biography of this group of women reveals the broader socio-medical contexts by which they were shaped, in which they participated, and helped shape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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22. Revisiting Post-war British Medical Migration: A Case Study of Bristol Medical Graduates in Australia.

Author

Mody, Fallon

Subjects
GRADUATE student mobility, POST-World War II Period, MEDICAL school graduates, HUMAN migration patterns, UNIVERSITY of Bristol. School of Medical Sciences, FOREIGN physicians
Abstract

Between 1954 and 1963, c. 4,000 British-trained doctors migrated to countries including Australia, Canada and the USA. Historians have positioned their motivations to migrate as either primarily ideological (opposition to ‘socialised medicine’) or economic (poor prospects within the NHS structure). Post-war British medical migrants are, however, understudied. This article adds to the growing body of literature on twentieth-century medical migration; it details the transnational lives of a group of Bristol doctors in Australia. Their medical lives are used as a case study to explore prospects in the NHS—particularly for GPs, contextualising these doctors’ decision to migrate. It continues by tracing the subsequent careers of this Bristol group in Australia. In doing so, it highlights the role of medical networks in understanding motivations to migrate, and the early readjustment of medical migrants. It also reveals the integral role British doctors played in alleviating GP shortages in rural Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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