Search

This study deals with the comprehensive modelling, analysis, and control of a DC microgrid (MG) in islanded mode. The proposed DC MG comprises a wind turbine, a photovoltaic (PV) source, battery storage, DC/DC source, and load side converters with DC loads. To this aim, a circuit‐oriented modelling of the whole system is developed. The PV source is modelled with a single‐diode electrical circuit. Afterward, a mathematical model of the system with state‐space representation was derived. A detailed analysis of PV system design is performed because the parameters of PV are appearing in the dynamic model of DC MG. For the purpose of controller development, the dynamic model of the DC MG, which is modelled by a non‐linear‐non‐affine eight‐order system, is linearized around an equilibrium point using the Jacobian matrix framework, while stability using eigenvalue is carried out showing that the stability is guaranteed under operating condition. Finally, for the first time, the state‐dependent Riccati equation (SDRE) technique is proposed to find the optimal regulation problem for the DC MG with non‐linear‐non‐affine dynamics. The numerical simulation studies first confirm the validity of the performed mathematical, then the effectiveness of the proposed non‐linear controller is evaluated under illumination and load change.

Magnetic track brakes work independently of the wheel–rail contact as an additional braking system in railway vehicles. In the past, magnetic track brakes were usually deactivated at velocities below 25 km/h in mainline applications to avoid stopping jerks. However, current demands on braking performance require activation until full stop. During field tests on this subject, severe self-excited vibrations were measured at velocities below 25 km/h. This study analyses the oscillations observed by focusing on the stability behaviour of a simplified linear coupled electro-magneto-mechanical model of the track brake. Key parameters are identified by applying established criteria of linear stability theory. To account for essential nonlinear effects, a detailed multibody dynamics model with flexible bodies including a more enhanced electro-magnetic model is introduced and parameterised by using measurement data. Simulation results reveal two separate (or combined) mechanisms that may lead to self-excitation. On the one hand, friction-induced vibrations between the magnets and the rail; on the other hand, coupling effects between the electro-magnetic and the mechanical subsystems of the track brake may be the cause of the self-excited vibrations observed. Stability behaviour is influenced by various design parameters and in particular by the contact conditions between track brake and rail. Finally, a few passive methods are briefly discussed that may help to mitigate or reduce self-excited vibrations at low velocities in future designs of track brakes.

Predictive maintenance (PM) and quality management help to improve the business bottom line by alleviating the system performance degradation caused by unscheduled machine breakdown and product qua...

Production systems literature usually attributes throughput losses to two reasons: unreliable equipment and random part processing time (also referred to as machine cycle time). In practice, howeve...

Photovoltaic and CSP development are related to site specification. In addition to high levels of insolation, climate and environmental conditions have a great impact on the efficiency of these tec...

To maximize the grain yield of spring wheat, flowering needs to coincide with the optimal flowering period (OFP) by minimizing frost and heat stress on reproductive development. This global study conducted a comprehensive modelling analysis of genotype, environment, and management to identify the OFPs for sites in irrigated mega-environments of spring wheat where the crop matures during a period of increasing temperatures. We used a gene-based phenology model to conduct long-term simulation analysis with parameterized genotypes to identify OFPs and optimal sowing dates for sites in irrigated mega-environments, considering the impacts of frost and heat stress on yield. The validation results showed that the gene-based model accurately predicted wheat heading dates across global wheat environments. The long-term simulations indicated that frost and heat stress significantly advanced or delayed OFPs and shrank the durations of OFPs in irrigated mega-environments when compared with OFPs where the model excluded frost and heat stress impacts. The simulation results (incorporating frost and heat penalties on yield) also showed that earlier flowering generally resulted in higher yields, and early sowing dates and/or early flowering genotypes were suggested to achieve early flowering. These results provided an interpretation of the regulation of wheat flowering to the OFP by the selection of sowing date and cultivar to achieve higher yields in irrigated mega-environments.

Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.Tijuana, México, tiene una epidemia de VIH concentrada en poblaciones claves (PC) superpuestas que incluyen personas que se inyectan drogas (PID), trabajadoras sexuales (MTS), sus clientes hombres, y hombres que tienen sexo con hombres (HSH). Desarrollamos un modelo dinámico de transmisión de VIH en estas PC para determinar hasta dónde sus necesidades no atendidas de prevención y tratamiento dirigen la transmisión del VIH. Para 2020–2029 estimamos la proporción de nuevas infecciones adquiridas en cada PC, y la proporción atribuida a sus comportamientos de riesgo sin protección. Estimamos que 43.7% y 55.3% de nuevas infecciones se dan en HSH y PID, respectivamente, con MTS y clientes conformando 10% de nuevas infecciones. Las proyecciones sugieren que 93.8% de nuevas infecciones en 2020–2029 se deberán a sexo sin protección en HSH o uso inseguro de drogas inyectables. Dar prioridad a intervenciones que atienden los riesgos sexual y de inyección en HSH y PID es crítico para controlar el VIH en Tijuana.

The present study is about the outbreak of novel Corona disease (COVID-19). The study proposes the mathematical modelling of COVID-19 disease as quadratic growth. Correlation coefficient associated with the characteristic of the modelling trend has been obtained by least square method using matlab function. Analysis of variance show the model proposed is significant. The study gave the information about the transmission of the disease and the prevention observed by the medical practitioner. The graphical representation has shown the outcome of the spread of the disease in India. This disease can be of respiratory type, pneumonia type, or asymptotic carrier type. The simulation result obtained is in accordance to the quadratic model fitted and can be used for the prediction of the growth. Results obtained on the basis of R2 were of approximately 97% in agreement. The only possibilities to avoid the spread of the disease is to monitor self-isolation, maintain cleanliness, improve immunity, and be protected.

Background Testing plays a critical role in treatment and prevention responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to nucleic acid tests (NATs), antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) can be more accessible, but typically have lower sensitivity and specificity. By quantifying these trade-offs, we aimed to inform decisions about when an Ag-RDT would offer greater public health value than reliance on NAT. Methods Following an expert consultation, we selected two use cases for analysis: rapid identification of people with COVID-19 amongst patients admitted with respiratory symptoms in a ‘hospital’ setting and early identification and isolation of people with mildly symptomatic COVID-19 in a ‘community’ setting. Using decision analysis, we evaluated the health system cost and health impact (deaths averted and infectious days isolated) of an Ag-RDT-led strategy, compared to a strategy based on NAT and clinical judgement. We adopted a broad range of values for ‘contextual’ parameters relevant to a range of settings, including the availability of NAT and the performance of clinical judgement. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis to all of these parameters. Results In a hospital setting, an Ag-RDT-led strategy would avert more deaths than a NAT-based strategy, and at lower cost per death averted, when the sensitivity of clinical judgement is less than 90%, and when NAT results are available in time to inform clinical decision-making for less than 85% of patients. The use of an Ag-RDT is robustly supported in community settings, where it would avert more transmission at lower cost than relying on NAT alone, under a wide range of assumptions. Conclusions Despite their imperfect sensitivity and specificity, Ag-RDTs have the potential to be simultaneously more impactful, and have a lower cost per death and infectious person-days averted, than current approaches to COVID-19 diagnostic testing.

Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a later resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be informative, for the need to implement non-pharmaceutical measures in any resurgent wave. Drawing from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, we calibrated simple mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics to data for virologically confirmed hospitalisations during the initial ‘spring’ wave. We then projected pandemic outcomes (cumulative hospitalisations) during the fall wave, and compared these projections with data. Model results show reasonable agreement for all states that reported a substantial number of cases in the spring wave. Using this model we propose a probabilistic decision framework that can be used to determine the need for pre-emptive measures such as postponing school openings, in advance of a fall wave. This work illustrates how model-based evidence synthesis, in real-time during an early pandemic wave, could be used to inform timely decisions for pandemic response.

Summary Background UNAIDS has prioritised Malawi and 21 other countries in sub-Saharan Africa for fast-tracking the end of their HIV epidemics. UNAIDS' elimination strategy requires achieving a treatment coverage of 90% by 2030. However, many individuals in the prioritised countries have to travel long distances to access HIV treatment and few have access to motorised transportation. Using data-based geospatial modelling, we investigated whether these two factors are barriers to achieving HIV elimination in Malawi and assessed the effect of increasing bicycle availability on expanding treatment coverage. Methods We built a data-based geospatial model that we used to estimate the minimum travel time needed to access treatment, for every person living with HIV in Malawi. We constructed our model by combining a spatial map of health-care facilities, a map that showed the number of HIV-infected individuals per km2, and an impedance map. We quantified impedance using data on road and river networks, land cover, and topography. We estimated travel times for the existing coverage of 70%, and the time that HIV-infected individuals would need to spend travelling in order to achieve a coverage of 90%, whether driving, bicycling, or walking. Findings We identified a quantitative relationship between the maximum achievable coverage of treatment and the minimum travel time to the nearest health-care facility. At 70% coverage, health-care facilities can be reached within approximately 45 min if driving, 65 min if bicycling, and 85 min if walking. Increasing coverage above 70% will become progressively more difficult. To reach 90% coverage, many HIV-infected individuals (who have yet to initiate treatment) will need to travel for almost twice as long as those already on treatment. Bicycling, rather than walking, in rural areas would substantially increase the maximum achievable coverage. Interpretation The long travel times needed to reach health-care facilities coupled with little motorised transportation in rural areas are substantial barriers to reaching 90% coverage in Malawi. Increased bicycle availability could help eliminate HIV. Funding US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Pneumococcal disease is a substantial contributor to illness and death in young children globally. The introduction of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in 2000 had a significant impact in preventing pneumococcal disease in both vaccinated children and unvaccinated individuals (through herd effect). A higher valent PCV13 replaced PCV7 in late 2009. This analysis was undertaken to assess how many cases and deaths have been averted over the last decade since PCV13 introduction. A model estimated the number of infants vaccinated annually with PCV13, as well as the number of cases and deaths of invasive pneumococcal disease, pneumococcal pneumonia, and acute otitis media cases averted. PCV13 vaccination was estimated to have prevented 175.2 million cases of all pneumococcal diseases and 624,904 deaths globally between 2010 and 2019. These results demonstrate the substantial public health impact of PCV13 and highlight the importance of increasing the global reach of PCV programs.

Against the background of the big environmental and societal challenges as formulated for example in Flightpath 2050, current developments in aircraft design are aiming at further emission reduction through integrated, unconventional propulsion, systems and airframe innovations. This requires the further integration of methods for multidisciplinary modelling, analysis and optimization for aircraft design, but also for propulsion and system level designs. Moreover, experimental validation of the methods and physical testing of critical unconventional propulsion and system designs are prerequisites for industrially relevant development processes. This paper presents some key technologies for computationally efficient collaborative MDO (multidisciplinary design and optimization) frameworks for multidisciplinary design and validation of advanced aeronautic products like aircraft and propulsion systems.

Cross arms in transmission tower are made up of Chengal wood, which degrade and collapse after a long period of service. This is due to creep deformation, and the rate of degradation is expedited due to exposure to extreme tropical climate. Hence, it is crucial to comprehend the early creep stage, which leads to structural failure. Apart from that, there are several research and industrial application gaps of these cross arms. For instance, creep life analysis of actual cross arms is still unexplored. In this study, the state-of-the-art is related to creep experiments and creep test rig designs, espacially on the creep test of a cantilever beam setup. The experimental methodologies implemented two vital approaches, conventional and accelerated techniques. The specific creep experiments on cantilever beam structure are emphasized and suggested in the manuscript as the building blocks for future design of cantilever creep test rig. This helps to guide future development design of cantilever beam creep test rig by fulfilling the specific criteria related to creep fundamentals, numerical modelling analysis, test operation for data evaluation, and development process. At the end, the challenges and improvements on the criteria existing design of test rigs are elaborated.

Although the fire resistance of various steel profiles has been predicted and presented in the literature, the effect of local buckling requires further research. This comprehensive study discusses this effect on the fire resistance of steel “I” slender cross-sections for uniform compression and simple bending cases. A numerical modelling analysis with SAFIR considering the ABNT NBR 14.323:2013 and Eurocode 3 Part 1-2 (2005) design rules is conducted. For the catalogue profiles, the standards are conservative for columns and beams for a temperature range between 600.00°C and 800.00°C and 400.00°C and 800.00°C, respectively. However, the results determined with the standards may be unsafe. The need for an improvement in the precision of the current standards is also discussed.

Background An improved understanding of the trajectory of recovery after mild traumatic brain injury is important to be able to understand individual patient outcomes, for longitudinal patient care and to aid the design of clinical trials. Objective To explore changes in health, well-being and cognition over the 2 years following mTBI using latent growth curve (LGC) modelling. Methods Sixty-one adults with mTBI presenting to a UK Major Trauma Centre completed comprehensive longitudinal assessment at up to five time points after injury: 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years. Results Persisting problems were seen with neurological symptoms, cognitive issues and poor quality of life measures including 28% reporting incomplete recovery on the Glasgow Outcome Score Extended at 2 years. Harmful drinking, depression, psychological distress, disability, episodic memory and working memory did not improve significantly over the 2 years following injury. For other measures, including the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms and Quality of Life after Brain Injury (QOLIBRI), LGC analysis revealed significant improvement over time with recovery tending to plateau at 3–6 months. Interpretation Significant impairment may persist as late as 2 years after mTBI despite some recovery over time. Longitudinal analyses which make use of all available data indicate that recovery from mTBI occurs over a longer timescale than is commonly believed. These findings point to the need for long-term management of mTBI targeting individuals with persisting impairment.

The ventilation systems are inadequate, the increase in the amount of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide in the inner environment can damage human health. In addition, obtaining the level of extern...

Purpose: To analyse the strength of materials by means of optimization, find the best value of the strength test of mutually influential materials with a variation of roll-hoop height. Design/methodology/approach: The research began with the design of a threedimensional model by varying the height of the roll-hoop on chassis types: A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H ,and I. The height of the main roll hoop at each chassis is: 502, 504, 506 508, 510, 512, 514, 516 and 518 mm. Then by using the student version of Autodesk Inventor, a simulation is made to test: Deflection, Normal stress, Shear stress (T-x / T-y) and Torsional stress. The results of this test are used to analyse the types of chassis that have been designed so that the best chassis design is obtained. Findings: The results obtained in this study are the value of Normal stress decreases with increasing roll-hoop height, and applies inversely to the torsional stress value. Deflection values tend to be stable with increasing roll-hoop height, while Shear stress T-x and T-y values tend to fluctuate. Research limitations/implications: The chassis material uses carbon steel which has mechanical property values in accordance with 2015 FSAE Standard regulations. Practical implications: The optimization results of the design of the roll hoop height on the chassis show that the chassis type B with the main roll hoop height of 504 mm is the best with the lowest deflection value and the difference in tension according to the FSAE rules. Originality/value: The research that has been done only tests the strength of the ingredients separately. In this study trying to analyse the strength of the material by way of optimization to find the best value from the strength test of material that influence each other with a variation of roll-hoop height.

The study aimed to develop models for pedestrian crossings behaviour based on road traffic and human factors. A questionnaire distributed to 663 Shah Alam pedestrians. Respondents were asked to fill out a questionnaire on their perceptions of risks and attitudes concerning walking and road crossings. The modelling analysis showed that there is a significant relationship between the Human Factor and the Crossing Behavior, this study identified two components of the Human Factor that influenced the behaviour of the pedestrian crossing, namely the "risk-taker" and the "rule-follower." Analysis of pedestrian crossings behaviour useful to evaluate the implementation of new pedestrian crossing environments.

We consider a fractional phase-field crystal (FPFC) model in which the classical Swift–Hohenberg equation (SHE) is replaced by a fractional order Swift–Hohenberg equation (FSHE) that reduces to the classical case when the fractional order $\beta =1$. It is found that choosing the value of $\beta $ appropriately leads to FSHE giving a markedly superior fit to experimental measurements of the structure factor than obtained using the SHE ($\beta =1$) for a number of crystalline materials. The improved fit to the data provided by the fractional partial differential equation prompts our investigation of a FPFC model based on the fractional free energy functional. It is shown that the FSHE is well-posed and exhibits the same type of pattern formation behaviour as the SHE, which is crucial for the success of the PFC model, independently of the fractional exponent $\beta $. This means that the FPFC model inherits the early successes of the FPC model such as physically realistic predictions of the phase diagram etc. and, therefore, provides a viable alternative to the classical PFC model. While the salient features of PFC and FPFC are identical, we expect more subtle features to differ. The prediction of grain boundary energy arising from a mismatch in orientation across a material interface is another notable success of the PFC model. The grain boundary energy can be evaluated numerically from the PFC model and compared with experimental measurements. The grain boundary energy is a derived quantity and is more sensitive to the nuances of the model. We compare the predictions obtained using the PFC and FPFC models with experimental observations of the grain boundary energy for several materials. It is observed that the FPFC model gives superior agreement with the experimental observation than those obtained using the classical PFC model, especially when the mismatch in orientation becomes larger.

Traditional transient electromagnetic methods use single sources for excitation and extract the characteristics of underground media by improving interpretation technology. This study focused the improvements of transient electromagnetic interpretation using complex source technology. A time-domain vector finite element method (TFEM) was applied on three-dimensional forward modelling of semi-airborne transient electromagnetic (TEM) with multiple electrical sources, and it analysed the characteristics of fields with multiple sources. The study used a model of an isolated anomalous body in a homogeneous medium as an example. The effects of different combinations of excitation sources on the distributions of the magnetic field characteristics were analysed. Numerical results showed that the magnetic field components in a specific area could be strengthened by changing the layout of the sources, which was significant for future field data collections. By comparing the transient electromagnetic fields of the vertical array dipole sources with that of the loop source, the anomaly transient electromagnetic field of multi-source was more obvious than the field with a single source. Taking a complex orebody model as an example, a cross-electric source was used to calculate the magnetic field components of the semi-airborne TEM method. The resistivity distribution characteristics of the underground medium were obtained using an apparent resistivity interpretation method of the vertical magnetic field, which fully demonstrated that a multi-source transient electromagnetic system had the ability to determine abundant resistivity information of a complex medium.

Background Recent works suggest recent changes in anhedonia may be specifically predictive of key elements of psychopathology. The present study aimed to identify the trajectories of state anhedonia and recent changes in anhedonia, and to investigate their associations with other psychiatric syndromes over time. Methods A total of 859 college students were assessed at three time points. State anhedonia was assessed using the Snaith Hamilton Pleasure Scale and recent changes in anhedonia were assessed with a subscale extracted from the Symptom Check-List-90. The Latent Growth Curve Modelling analysis was used to analyze trajectories. Associations with anhedonia were investigated with logistic regression models. Results Three state anhedonia trajectories and two recent changes in anhedonia trajectories were identified. The decreasing trajectory was the most prevalent class in both two types of anhedonia. Depression and suicidal ideation predicted recent changes in anhedonia whereas other psychiatric syndromes predicted state anhedonia. Conclusions The current study highlighted the development trajectories of different measures of anhedonia. The results showed that the relationships between anhedonia and psychiatric syndromes were different according to the kind of anhedonia.

Micro-Electro Discharge Machining (micro-EDM) is used to machine micro-holes on silver plate of 350 µm thickness using a silver tool of 450 µm diameter by varying three influencing input process p...

Universal Molecular Modelling Analysis Package (UMMAP) is a software package designed to provide a command line driven analysis suite for particle-based simulation codes. It is developed to work cl...

A functionalized hydrogel composed of 2-(hydroxyethyl) methacrylate (HEMA) and acrylamide (AAm) was synthesized by amination and saponification reactions, respectively, and its functionality was examined for the elimination of copper(II) ions. The maximum adsorption capacity for copper(II) ions was 0.617 mmol g(-1) before saponification, whereas it was 1.2225 mmol g(-1) after saponification. The adsorption data was analyzed with pseudo-first-order (r(2) =0.8867), intra-particle diffusion (r(2) =0.9453), Elovich (r(2) =0.9489) and pseudo-second-order(r(2) =0.9999) kinetic models. Based on the adsorption equilibrium experimental data Freundlich(r(2) =0.9964), Langmuir(r(2) =0.998) and Dubinin-Radushkevich (D-R) (r(2) =0.9960) adsorption isotherms provided good fits for all of experimental results. Finally, the datas of kinetic experiments obtained in this study showed the applicability of the functionalized gel for Copper(II) ion removal. Research Fund of Istanbul UniversityIstanbul University [22058, 37685] This research was financially supported by the Research Fund of Istanbul University, (Project No: 22058 and 37685). WOS:000491928700005 Q4

Availability of data and materials: The authors confirm that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article. Copyright © The Author(s) 2019. A hierarchical model of softwood was developed to effectively analyze stress concentration and predict initial fracture of the wood cell wall under different loading scenarios. The results indicated that the simulated stress concentration regions of the tracheid wall approximately matched the experimental initial fracture locations. The stress concentration and initial fracture of the tracheid wall under longitudinal tensile stress occurred in the S2 layer. In the cases of pure longitudinal–radial (LR) or longitudinal–tangential (LT) in-plane shear loading, the highest stresses are observed in the S1/S2 interface and the S3 layer, but the initial fractures of the tracheids of the neutral layer under the LR or LT shear stress only occurred in the S1/S2 interface. Furthermore, the tracheids of the tensile parts outermost of bending specimen were subjected to the longitudinal tension and shear coupling stresses that led to the two kinds of cracks occurring, including trumpet-shaped cracks in the S2 layer, and S1/S2 interface debonding. National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Number 31770597, 2017]; the program from the China Scholarship Council [201803270009, 2018].

The five Plasmodium spp. that cause human malaria appear similar under light microscopy, which raises the possibility that misdiagnosis could routinely occur in clinical settings. Assessing the extent of misdiagnosis is of particular importance for monitoring P. knowlesi, which co-circulates with the other Plasmodium spp. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing the performance of microscopy and PCR for diagnosing malaria in settings with co-circulation of the five Plasmodium spp. We assessed the extent to which co-circulation of Plasmodium parasites affects diagnostic outcomes. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical latent class model to estimate variation in microscopy sensitivity and specificity. Mean sensitivity of microscopy was low, yet highly variable across Plasmodium spp., ranging from 41.7% (95% CI: 22.8 – 64.1%) for P. falciparum and 40.3% (22.0 – 61.5%) for P. vivax to 0.119% (0.0121 – 0.640%) for P. knowlesi, 7.57% (2.66 – 22.0%) for P. malariae, and 0.180% (0.00491 – 1.21%) for P. ovale. Observed PCR prevalence was positively correlated with estimated microscopic sensitivity and negatively correlated with estimated microscopic specificity, though the strength of the associations varied by species. Our analysis suggests that co-circulation of Plasmodium spp. undermines the accuracy of microscopy. Sensitivity was considerably lower for P. knowlesi, P. malariae, and P. ovale. The negative association between specificity and prevalence imply that less frequently encountered species may be misdiagnosed as more frequently encountered species. Together, these results suggest that the burden of P. knowlesi, P. malariae, and P. ovale may be underappreciated in a clinical setting.

Background Regional planning may help to ensure that the specific measures implemented as part of a national suicide prevention strategy are aligned with the varying needs of local services and communities; however, there are concerns that the reliability of local programme development may be limited in practice. Aims The potential impacts of independent regional planning on the effectiveness of suicide prevention programmes in the Australian state of New South Wales were quantified using a system dynamics model of mental health services provision and suicidal behaviour in each of the state's ten Primary Health Network (PHN) catchments. Method Reductions in projected suicide mortality over the period 2021–2031 were calculated for scenarios in which combinations of four and five suicide prevention and mental health services interventions (selected from 13 possible interventions) are implemented separately in each PHN catchment. State-level impacts were estimated by summing reductions in projected suicide mortality for each intervention combination across PHN catchments. Results The most effective state-level combinations of four and five interventions prevent, respectively, 20.3% and 22.9% of 10 312 suicides projected under a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. no new policies or programmes, constant services capacity growth). Projected numbers of suicides under the optimal intervention scenarios for each PHN are up to 6% lower than corresponding numbers of suicides projected for the optimal state-level intervention combinations. Conclusions Regional suicide prevention planning may contribute to significant reductions in suicide mortality where local health authorities are provided with the necessary resources and tools to support reliable, evidence-based decision-making.

This paper proposes a novel method and algorithms for the design of MRI structured personalized 3D spiking neural network models (MRI-SNN) for a better analysis, modeling, and prediction of EEG signals. It proposes a novel gradient-descent learning algorithm integrated with a spike-time-dependent-plasticity algorithm. The models capture informative personal patterns of interaction between EEG channels, contrary to single EEG signal modeling methods or to spike-based approaches which do not use personal MRI data to pre-structure a model. The proposed models can not only learn and model accurately measured EEG data, but they can also predict signals at 3D model locations that correspond to non-monitored brain areas, e.g. other EEG channels, from where data has not been collected. This is the first study in this respect. As an illustration of the method, personalized MRI-SNN models are created and tested on EEG data from two subjects. The models result in better prediction accuracy and a better understanding of the personalized EEG signals than traditional methods due to the MRI and EEG information integration. The models are interpretable and facilitate a better understanding of related brain processes. This approach can be applied for personalized modeling, analysis, and prediction of EEG signals across brain studies such as the study and prediction of epilepsy, peri-perceptual brain activities, brain-computer interfaces, and others.

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon on land and have the ability to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks also improves soil fertility, water holding capacity and prevents erosion. Maintaining SOC stocks is particularly relevant in agricultural soils, where they have been depleted through historical land use. Simulation models representing the dynamics of carbon in the soil are used for predicting the impact of future climate change on SOC dynamics. It is necessary to reduce the uncertainties related to SOC predictions and increase confidence on long-term model simulations. Multi-modeling simulations allow predicting the evolution of SOC stocks, while estimating the uncertainty related to different modeling approaches. In this study, we used a multi-modeling ensemble (ICBM, AMG, RothC and Century) to estimate the amount of carbon inputs required to maintain and increase SOC stocks in 17 agricultural experiments around Europe. Models were run once without calibration and once fitting SOC stocks to long-term observations though parameters’ optimization. Outputs were significantly different among the models and, although no effect of the optimization was found, we observed a significant interaction effect between models and parameters’ optimization. We found that maintaining and increasing SOC stocks is realistic for some experimental conditions, but might be hard to implement at a larger scale.

To assess the effectiveness of the containment strategies proposed in Japan, an SEIAQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-quarantined-recovered) model was established to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. We divided the spread of COVID-19 in Japan into different stages based on policies. The effective reproduction number Re and the transmission parameters were determined to evaluate the measures conducted by the Japanese Government during these periods. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese authority declared a state of emergency to control the rapid development of the pandemic. Based on the simulation results, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan can be inhibited by containment actions during the state of emergency. The effective reproduction number Re reduced from 1.99 (before the state of emergency) to 0.92 (after the state of emergency). The transmission parameters were fitted and characterized with quantifiable variables including the ratio of untracked cases, the PCR test index and the proportion of COCOA app users (official contact confirming application). The impact of these variables on the control of COVID-19 was investigated in the modelling analysis. On 8 January 2021, the Japanese Government declared another state of emergency. The simulated results demonstrated that the spread could be controlled in May by keeping the same strategies. A higher intensity of PCR testing was suggested, and a larger proportion of COCOA app users should reduce the final number of infections and the time needed to control the spread of COVID-19.

China Energy’s National Institute of Clean-and-Low-Carbon Energy (NICE) is developing a Power Plant Smart Management (PPSM) platform that employs digital-twin technology to undertake techno-economic modelling analysis on China Energy’s existing coal-fired power-plant units and explore cost-effective solutions to improve those plant units’ thermal efficiencies and operating performance. This paper presents a case study of PPSM on a 320-MWe coal-fired thermal power-plant unit, demonstrating how the digital-twin technology was employed to explore and analyse optimization solutions. Various optimization solutions and their cost-effectiveness were assessed using the digital-twin-modelling analysis; the results indicated the optimization solutions are expected to improve the plant unit’s operating efficiency and reduce its current electricity-generation coal consumption by up to 3.5 g/kWh standard coal equivalent (sce), worth annual fuel-cost savings of approximately 4 million RMB for a single unit or 8 million RMB for the two identical 320-MWe units that the power plant currently operates. The digital twin was also employed to assess the power-plant unit’s operating economics during both summer and winter. In summer, when the unit operates in electricity-generation-only mode, the unit’s operating thermal efficiency could drop by up to 6% points following the grid demand of load changes from 100% maximum continuous rating (MCR) down to 30%MCR, resulting in an ~ 45 RMB/MWh increase of electricity-generation cost. In winter, when the unit operates in combined heat and power (CHP) cogeneration mode, for the same boiler load, the CHP operation increases the plant unit’s operating profit with increasing district-heating duty, although the relative profit gain from the CHP cogeneration could start to decrease when the district-heating steam-extraction flow increases to a certain point that varies depending on the market prices of heat and electricity, while the fuel cost was found to be equivalent to ~50% of the unit’s total CHP income cogenerated from its electricity and district heat outputs.

This paper uses simulation results from a dynamic computable model as well as estimates by the United Nations of trends in China’s population in 2010–2050 to determine the impact of the aging of th...