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This study develops a dynamic model of climate-related disaster impacts, considering multidimensional household heterogeneity, for analyzing changes in growth and inequality in low-income countries. Focusing on human capital development, the study demonstrates the multiple impacts of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies on human capital investment, including the effect of schooling opportunities for households constrained by the subsistence consumption constraint. Through numerical simulations performed for two economies that differ in terms of human capital, modeled after Madagascar and Fiji, it is illustrated that the possibilities of involuntary unemployment and the work-learning choice drive the diversity in macroeconomic impacts of a disaster. In an economy characterized by low levels of human capital, a disaster could cause an increase in labor supply in the immediate aftermath, but interrupt human capital formation, impeding long-term growth and human capital formation. Such a result contradicts prevailing intuition by demonstrating that a disaster occurring in an economy under recession may not result in a large adverse GDP impact in the short run but may negatively impact growth in the long run. On such a path, a policy of development in DRR infrastructure with appropriate taxation could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital-investment opportunities for the poor.

This study develops a simple monetary growth model of the sluggish factor-price adjustment to examine GDP growth and distributional implications of climate-related disasters with a special focus on human capital investment in developing countries. The model demonstrates an endogenous business cycle through integration of nonlinear factors associated with the money-demand function and the human capital investment function. The results of the numerical analysis suggest that there is the possibility that a disaster occurring in an economy experiencing unemployment increases GDP in the short run but hampers growth in the long run. This is due to the interruption of human-capital investment, implying that the widespread view that a disaster causes short-run adverse GDP impacts may not always hold true and negative indirect impacts may manifest in the long-term. On such a path, development in disaster mitigation infrastructure could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital investment opportunities for the poor. The study further points out the methodological potential of the nonlinear dynamic model for analyzing indirect risks. The nonlinear feature of our model derives long-term non-monotonic impacts on economic dynamics that are sensitive to small changes in initial values and direct disaster damages. This allows for the estimation of various qualitative and quantitative market responses associated with a macroeconomic situation such as a boom and recession, and the possibilities of lagged influences.

Purpose The authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. The model can be used to analyze and compare various potential policies in terms of their economic consequences. The decomposition of these effects into multiple benefits helps policy makers and other stakeholders better understand the ex ante and ex-post advantages of DRR investments. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues. Design/methodology/approach A dynamic real business cycle model is at the core of this research. In the model multiple natural hazards modeled stochastically cause shocks to the economy. Economic outcomes, most importantly, output can be assessed before and after disasters and under various DRR policies. The decomposition of benefits aims to quantify the concept of triple dividends. Findings In case study applications in Tanzania and Zambia, the authors find that investments into physical infrastructure and risk transfer instruments generate a variety of benefits even in the absence of disaster. A land use restriction with planned relocation for example reduces output in the short run but in the long run increases it. Overall, policy effects of various DRR interventions evolve in a nonmonotonic manner and should be evaluated over a long period of time using dynamic simulation. Originality/value The novelty of this study lies in the economic quantification of multiple benefits described in the triple dividends literature. This helps comparing ex ante, ex-post and volatility-related economic effects of multiple disasters and related physical and financial DRR investment options. As observed in the case studies, the model can also identify overlooked temporal heterogeneity of co-benefits of DRR investments.

This contributing paper aims to bridge the important knowledge gap between the conceptualization of disaster risk reduction (DRR) benefits and its formal theoretical underpinnings and methods for quantifying benefits. This study also introduces a new macroeconomic framework for quantifying the multiple benefits of DRR investment. One of the most widely adopted framings, ‘Triple Dividends’ (Tanner et al. 2015), presents a series of narratives in which DRR investment not only protects but also fosters growth and other societal welfare but it falls short in how to quantify such multiple benefits. Given that the interaction of disaster risk with DRR investment and the macroeconomy is complex, the lack of detailed understanding regarding such dynamics limits the ability to effectively design a set of DRR investment options that yield synergies between DRR and other development aspirations. The Dynamic Model of Multi-hazard Mitigation CoBenefits (DYNAMMICs) framework serves to model the macro-economic benefits of DRR investments in this study. This study finds that, unlike the narrative-based approach used in the previous studies, the DYNAMMICs framework has demonstrated the complexity associated with the triple dividends concept. Different DRR investment options yielded a wide ranging trajectories of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dividends, suggesting that a more careful analysis is needed to capture the full potential of DRR investment to foster the triple dividends. However, the DYNAMMICs framework proposed in this study is capable of evaluating multiple hazards and investment options at the same time and offers a way to evaluate the potential of DRR investment to create synergies with other development goals.

Building resilience to disasters continues to pose challenges for developing countries. Historically, small island developing states (SIDS) bordering the Pacific Ocean have suffered from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, coastal erosion, floods, and cyclones. Population increase, uneven progress in socioeconomic development, and the ongoing environmental degradation, including climate change, have exaggerated their vulnerability to disasters. At the same time, the recent COVID-19 global pandemic has shown that the small, remote, and less-diversified economies of SIDS are particularly prone to additional external shocks. Events such as COVID-19, in combination with disasters resulting from natural hazards, pose additional challenges for resource-constrained economies’ recovery. However, the existing literature has rarely evaluated such interactions. This study hence provides initial insights into the interaction of alternative DRM policies in the presence of additional demand-side constraints, which we evaluated through the recently developed binary constrained disaster (BinD) model. Our results indicate that a targeted increase of government spending in times of crisis could be beneficial for the economic recovery of Fiji. However, short-term trade-offs emerged with respect to financing options. Debt-financed recovery allows a faster and less painful recovery but requires quick and preferential access to foreign borrowing. Tax-financed recovery can compensate for short-term foreign borrowing needs but comes at the cost of more detrimental impacts on the GDP and private sector consumption.

Role-playing simulations have gained in popularity in recent years as a novel method of engaging researchers and stakeholders in a variety of social and environmental issues. While academic interest has grown on this topic, knowledge remains sparse on the underlying theories that may guide the design of such games. Thsi article introduces a new game design framework - Com­pleC­Sus (Com­plex­ity-Col­lab­o­ra­tion-Sus­tain­abil­ity) - built on the concepts of social learning and procedural rhetoric. We describe and discuss the conceptual basis for our framework, giving a detailed account of its application through the recently developed the Water–Food–Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game) as an example. We illustrate the process involved in designing the Nexus Game through initial scoping, prototyping, and design decisions, and how game structure and debriefing have been crafted to foster social learning focused on the understanding of the underlying social-ecological system as well as fostering collaboration between stakeholders. We also provide the analysis of qualitative data collected during recent gaming sessions across three continents to evaluate the Nexus Game’s potential learning effects.

This paper contributes to the current debate on implementation gaps in local low-carbon energy transitions. We observe the need for a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the challenges associated with local energy transitions: we thus propose integrating key aspects of Transition Management (TM) and the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) into the Regional Innovations Systems (RIS) framework. The resulting blended framework enables policy learning through discourse and interaction between governance and implementation levels, a key prerequisite towards creating the necessary framework conditions for local innovation and transformation. The application of this novel blended framework to the case of two municipalities in Austria, one urban and one rural, shows local measures, building on local knowledge, having great potential to foster local low-carbon energy transitions: this is seen in strong social networks and in dedicated local transition change makers, creatively circumventing issues such as the lack of financial resources. Yet, existing regulatory and institutional conditions at the national and state levels often hinder the local implementation. We argue that the limited power of agency of regional policymaking are a major stumbling block to local energy transitions, thus increasing the need for vertical policy integration and learning.

The development of and access to freshwater resources in East Africa is fundamental to the region's sustainable development goals. Following vision documents for regional development and working with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modeling analysis of the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Water scenarios that take an integrated approach to assessing the combined effects of climate change, land use, and increasing human water use suggest that the flow regime of the Nile may remain relatively stable. However, if this stability is to be achieved, while at the same time sufficient water is preserved for healthy freshwater ecosystems, a large fraction of water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly technologies and management. Interconnected analyses of both upstream and downstream water resources over time, guided by co-developed scenarios, are indispensable for planning sustainable water-development pathways.

The development of and access to freshwater resources is fundamental if East Africa aims to achieve its goal of increased economic growth. Following vision documents for regional development and working together with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modelling analysis for the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Results indicate a 4-5 fold increase in water demand, especially for expanding irrigation and domestic water needs. Together with climate and land use change, the discharge and flow regime of the Nile will remain relatively stable. However, if this is to be achieved, while sufficient water is preserved for environmental needs, a large fraction of future water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly, technological, and management options. The interconnected analysis, between up-stream and down-stream water resources and sectoral water demand, guided by co-developed scenarios, supports planning of sustainable water pathways.

We have analysed two possible development scenarios (Table 1) for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change).

Recent global assessments dealing with extreme event risks linked to geophysical and hydrometeorological variability have emphasized the imperative of disaster risk management as a core element in the public sector and business investment strategies. While a disaster is by definition a devastating shock to any risk bearer or affected system, it can also represent an opportunity in terms of a window for “Building Back Better” (BBB) and thus reducing risk in the longer term. Such strategies are associated with many constraints, of which lack of finance ranks high. This chapter presents a methodology as well as monetary estimates of the costs and benefits of such an approach from a global perspective. The specific question pursued is to examine how governments are fiscally prepared to build back better and provide adequate ex-post support to private sector losses. This is based on a fiscal stress testing methodology, which is extended for a BBB policy and compared to a policy strategy of rebuilding the status quo. The approach computes the return period of fiscal gaps, i.e., insufficient resources to recover from a disaster event and determines annual funding requirements needed for capitalizing a multi-hazard global fund which would absorb these gaps, either for all return periods or certain risk layers. It is found that building back better could considerably reduce future disaster risk, especially for the most at-risk countries. Beyond the quantification, the methodological approach provides a stepping stone for systematic assessments of building back better strategies for reducing long-term risk, which is a precondition for the achievement of many sustainable development goals and is part of two of the four pillars of the Sendai Framework for Risk Reduction.

This article presents a multi-model assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the respective economy-wide implications of adaptation measures for two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration targets, namely the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)2.6 and RCP4.5, and subsequent temperature increases. We combine our analysis, focusing on the global level, as well as on individual G20 countries, with the corresponding stylized RCP mitigation efforts in order to understand the implications of interactions across mitigation, adaptation and sea level rise on a macroeconomic level. Our global results indicate that until the middle of this century, differences in macroeconomic impacts between the two climatic scenarios are small, but increase substantially towards the end of the century. Moreover, direct economic impacts can be partially absorbed by substitution effects in production processes and via international trade effects until 2050. By 2100 however, we find that this dynamic no longer holds and economy-wide effects become even larger than direct impacts. The disturbances of mitigation efforts to the overall economy may in some regions and for some scenarios lead to a counterintuitive result, namely to GDP losses that are higher in RCP26 than in RCP45, despite higher direct coastal damages in the latter scenario. Within the G20, our results indicate that China, India and Canada will experience the highest macroeconomic impacts, in line with the respective direct climatic impacts, with the two first large economies undertaking the highest mitigation efforts in a cost-efficient global climate action. A sensitivity analysis of varying socioeconomic assumptions highlights the role of climate-resilient development as a crucial complement to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

We have analysed two possible development scenarios for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change). A Reference Scenario (REF) applies the storyline and quantification of one of the IPCC?s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP), the ?Middle of the Road? scenario (SSP2). The East-Africa Regional Vision scenario (EA-RVS) portrays the vision of the region, as expressed in several vision studies and the first stakeholder workshop of the study. - Data comes as Excel files - Supplementary to the report: East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 - The Excel Files have been used in the second workshop ?East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050?, from December 4-6, 2018 in Entebbe, Uganda, for consultation and joint learning and for discussion and fine-tuning of modelling results

The Indus River Basin covers an area of around 1 million square kilometers and connects four countries: Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan. More than 300 million people depend to some extent on the basin’s water, yet a growing population, increasing food and energy demands, climate change, and shifting monsoon patterns are exerting increasing pressure. Under these pressures, a “business as usual” (BAU) approach is no longer sustainable, and decision makers and wider stakeholders are calling for more integrated and inclusive development pathways that are in line with achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we propose an integrated nexus modeling framework co-designed with regional stakeholders from the four riparian countries of the Indus River Basin and discuss challenges and opportunities for developing transformation pathways for the basin’s future.

Disasters triggered by hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, droughts, and cyclones, pose significant impediments to sustainable development efforts in the most vulnerable and exposed countries. Mainstreaming disaster risk is hence seen as an important global agenda as reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015–2030. Yet, conventional development indicators remain largely negligent of the potential setbacks that may be posed by disaster risk. This article discusses the need to reflect disaster risk in development indicators and proposes a concept disaster risk-adjusted human development index (RHDI) as an example. Globally available national-level datasets of disaster risk to public and private assets (including health, educational facilities, and private housing) is combined with an estimate of expenditure on health, education, and capital formation to construct an RHDI. The RHDI is then analyzed across various regions and HDI groups, and contrasted with other HDI variants including inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) and the gender-specific female HDI (FHDI) to identify groups of countries where transformational disaster risk reduction (DRR) approaches may be necessary.

This paper reviews serious games/simulations addressing issues related to disaster risk management (DRM) and serving as educational and engagement tools for affected communities, policy-makers, and other stakeholders. Building on earlier research in collecting and classifying serious games, we provide an objective and thorough overview of 45 non-commercial digital and analog gaming activities related to DRM, analyzing their characteristics, target groups, portrayed hazards, and possible DRM skills development. Moreover, realizing the need for a more reliable and scientific approach to testing serious games’ effectiveness in contributing to DRM, we explore the categories of objectives of existing activities, and collect qualitative and quantitative evidence (players’ feedback, quantitative surveys, scientific articles on the analyzed games etc.) supporting their assessment. Further, we identify the prospects and limitations of gaming in the broader context of DRM, and diagnose existing niches that could be exploited by game producers and researchers to develop more user-tailored game design and reliable evaluation methodology. The research reveals that DRM-related serious games/simulations offer a rich social experience with players collaboratively solving a problem. With a capacity of reaching diverse audiences (embracing adults, children, experts and communities) and of realistically simulating disaster reality, serious games/simulations may assist DRM, especially in the realm of disaster risk awareness raising, identifying hazards, undertaking preventive actions, empathy triggering and perspective-taking. At the same time, the research displays the scarcity of quantitative and qualitative research into the games’ effectiveness. Therefore more detailed and structured study is called for in assessing these outcomes.

Poor communities in high risk areas are disproportionately affected by disasters compared to their wealthy counterparts; yet, there are few analyses to guide public decisions on pro-poor investments in disaster risk reduction. This paper illustrates an application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for assessing investments in structural flood proofing of low-income, high-risk houses. The analysis takes account of climate change, which is increasingly viewed as an important consideration for assessing long-term investments. Specifically, the study focuses on the Rohini river basin of India and evaluates options for constructing non-permanent and permanent residential structures on a raised plinth to protect them against flooding. The estimates show a positive benefit-cost ratio for building new houses on a raised plinth, while the ratio is less than one for demolishing existing houses to rebuild on a raised plinth. Climate change is found to significantly affect the BCA results. From a policy perspective, the analysis demonstrates the potential economic returns of raised plinths for ‘building back better’ after disasters, or as a part of good housing design practice.

While ageing-related costs are perceived as the major drivers of fiscal pressure in the EU, concerns over climate-related public expenditures have received comparatively little attention in securing the EU’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios as bridging concept for linking the assessment of public cost of demography- and climate-related expenditures, this study proposes a climate risk mainstreaming methodology. We apply a stochastic debt model and assess the potential flood risk in Austria to the public debt and the national disaster fund. Our results indicate that public debt under no fiscal consolidation is estimated to increase from the current level of 84.5% relative to GDP in 2015 to 92.1% in 2030, with macroeconomic variability adding further risk to the country’s baseline public debt trajectory. The study finds that the estimated public contingent liability due to expected flood risk is small relative to the size of economy. The existing earmarked disaster risk reduction (DRR) funding will likely reduce the risk of frequent-and-low impact floods, yet the current budgetary arrangement may be insufficient to deal with rising risk of extreme floods in the future. This prompts the need for further discussions regarding potential reforms of the disaster fund. As many EU member states are in the early stages of designing climate change policy strategies, the proposed method can support the mainstreaming of climate-related concerns into longer-term fiscal and budgetary planning.

A systematic review of literature on community resilience measurement published between 2005 and 2014 revealed that the profound lack of clarity on risk and resilience is one of the main reasons why confusion about terms such as adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability persists, despite the effort spared to operationalise these concepts. Resilience is measured in isolation in some cases, where a shock is perceived to arise external to the system of interest. Problematically, this contradicts the way in which the climate change and disaster communities perceive risk as manifesting itself endogenously as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. The common conceptualisation of resilience as predominantly positive is problematic as well when, in reality, many undesirable properties of a system are resilient. Consequently, this paper presents an integrative framework that highlights the interactions between risk drivers and coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing an improved conceptual basis for resilience measurement

Games can provide an effective and replicable space in which stakeholders learn skills necessary for deliberative and pluralist policymaking. These skills are especially important for “nexus” policy issues that are typically characterised by multiple, competing problem frames involving overlapping networks of stakeholders. In this position paper, we describe three serious games that serve as a space for players (stakeholders) and researchers to jointly explore alternative solutions to complex resource management issues: the Water-Food-Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game); the Narubu Game of Many Voices (Narubu Game); and the Forest Governance Game (Forest Game). The games contain instructive and reflexive mechanisms that prompt players to self-discover common challenges associated with complex nexus issues, including conflicting institutional mandates, social dilemmas, contending worldviews, and plural interpretations of science.

Disasters may offer a window of opportunity, in which extraordinary circumstances create momentum for positive social change. While this potential is popularized through the concept of “building back better,” few studies have examined quantitatively the processes and drivers of broader social change in a post-disaster context. Using renewable energy transition (specifically, solar photovoltaic diffusion) as one measure of building back better, this study explores how pre-and post- disaster contexts, capacities, and policies affected recovery outcomes of 30 coastal communities nearly 5 years following the Great East Japan earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster (Tohoku disaster). Our study shows that the disaster-affected communities adopted significantly more solar power than the rest of Japan following the introduction of the country's Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) system in 2012. The communities examined are highly diverse in their solar energy adoption as of 2015, and regression analysis was conducted to explain differences in overall solar energy diffusion as well as in adoption of very large scale mega-solar projects. The dynamic relationship between physical damage and subsequent solar adoption was found to be nonlinear, as was the relationship between degree of household relocation and solar energy adoption. Differences in communities’ mega-solar adoption were also explained by the variability in hazard zone designation and extent of physical damage. These findings suggest that a disaster may serve as an opportunity for positive community change when immediate impact (or the level of change involved in a reconstruction process) is high enough but not overwhelming. Overall, this study finds potentially complex relationships.

Objectives: This study was performed to determine whether multiparous pregnant women are prone to influenza. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted at 19 centres located throughout Japan, targeting all 6694 postpartum women within 7 days after birth before leaving the hospital. All women gave birth during the study period between March 1, 2015, and July 31, 2015. Data regarding vaccination and influenza infection in or after October 2014, age, previous experience of childbirth, and number and ages of cohabitants were collected. Results: Seventy-eight percent (n = 5,197) of women given questionnaires responded. Of these, 2,661 (51%) and 364 (7.0%) women reported having been vaccinated and having contracted influenza, respectively. Multiparous women had a higher risk of influenza regardless of vaccination status (8.9% [121/1,362] vs. 5.7% [74/1,299], relative risk [95% confidence interval], 1.80 [1.36 to 2.38] for vaccinated and 9.3% [112/1,198] vs. 4.3% [57/1,328], 2.18 [1.60 to 2.97] for unvaccinated women) compared to primiparous women. The risk of influenza increased with increasing number of cohabitants: 4.8% (100/2,089), 7.5%, (121/1,618), 9.0%, (71/785), and 10.4% (58/557) for women with 1, 2, 3, and ≥ 4 cohabitants, respectively. Conclusions: Family size is a risk factor for influenza infection in pregnancy.

Future risks linked to extreme events and options for managing them are receiving increasing attention in the research and policy arena, where uncertainty is considered to be one of the most challenging aspects in regard to disasters triggered by natural hazards. To shed more light on this issue, this study conducts a detailed uncertainty assessment of a forward-looking country level catastrophe risk model for extreme flood events in Bangladesh and identifies how various sources of uncertainties contribute to the variability in modeling results. Alternative assumptions of climate, exposure and vulnerability parameters show that scenario uncertainty regarding socio-economic development — and exposure in particular — seems to dominate other sources of uncertainty. Importantly, this trend is particularly notable for the estimate of extreme events rather than annual average losses and for the prediction over the longer-time horizons rather than near future. It is concluded that there is ample need to better understand how future vulnerability and exposure will develop as they found to be core determinants of risk, apart from climate change, for increases in extreme losses. One viable way is the incorporation of bottom-up assessment of exposure asset build-up and further analysis of vulnerability drivers, which could reduce epistemic uncertainty regarding projection of catastrophic economic losses into future. It is suggested that the concept of “iterative risk management” may provide a feasible way to achieve reduction of these uncertainties in a step-by-step basis.

Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge.

Introduction: With a renewed emphasis on evidence-based risk sensitive investment promoted under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, technical demands for analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis (CBA) will likely increase in the foreseeable future. This begs a number of pragmatic questions such as whether or not sophisticated quantitative appraisal tools are effective in raising policy awareness and what alternatives are available. Method: This article briefly reviews current practices of analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and identifies issues associated with its applications in small scale community based DRR interventions. Results: The article illustrate that while best scientific knowledge should inform policy and practice in principle, it should not create an unrealistic expectation that the state-of-the art methods must be used in all cases, especially for small scale DRR interventions in developing countries, where data and resource limitations and uncertainty are high, and complex interaction and feedback may exist between DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome. Discussion: Alternative and more participatory approaches for DRR appraisals are suggested which includes participatory serious games that are increasingly being used to raise awareness and identify pragmatic strategies for change that are needed to bring about successful uptake of DRR investment and implementation of DRR mainstreaming.

Disasters pose a growing threat to sustainable development. Disaster risk management efforts have largely failed to arrest the underlying drivers of growing risk globally: uncontrolled urbanization and proliferation of assets in hazardous areas. Resilience provides an opportunity to confront the social-ecological foundations of risk and development; yet it has been vaguely conceptualized, without offering a concrete approach to operationalization. We propose a conceptualization of disaster resilience centred on wellbeing: ‘The ability of a system, community or society to pursue its social, ecological and economic development objectives, while managing its disaster risk over time in a mutually reinforcing way.’ We present a conceptual framework for understanding the interconnections between disasters and development, and outline how it is being operationalized in practice.

The purpose of this study is to present and analyze previously unpublished quantitative agricultural data for the area on the shores of Lake Chad in Chad, and explore its relations to hydro-climatic factors (lake levels, rainfall and temperature). This is a rural area with livelihoods based on agropastoral and fishing activities, which are directly dependent on the region's high-varying hydro-climate. By using regression analysis on data from 1988-2012 this study was able to establish correlations between the latter and agricultural output. These correlations were used to build multivariate models to explore the predictive capacities of hydro-climatic factors with regards to the agricultural data. The selected models were able to account for considerable proportions of the agricultural dynamics. Some 5 of the 10 multivariate models tested had cross-validated R2s of 0.50 or more. Thus, there were still noteworthy unexplained variations in the agricultural data, which likely stem from technological, behavioral, economic and pest factors that were not explored in this study due do data limitations. Additional studies are called for to build on results presented here and further examine these relationships.