1. IntroductionRostow's (1960) last stage of economic growth1 is characterized by high mass consumption and a dominant services sector. However, most developing countries feature a dominant services sector despite being far removed from the high mass consumption stage. The literature on structural change tends to explain this phenomenon in terms of the complementary role of services in manufacturing value addition and growth, implying that the efficiency of both sectors moves in the same direction. These studies take into account the forward and backward linkages between the sectors. For instance, Blyde and Sinyavskaya (2007) argue that an increase in export manufacturing is strongly linked to the efficiency of the services sector, such that a 10 percent increase in services trading will create a 6 percent increase in commodities trading.Similarly, Zott and Amit (2010) show that a larger services sector improves value addition in manufacturing: it enables manufacturing firms engaged with the services sector to provide information to producers on market needs. This enlarges the scope of production, resulting in value addition and increasing sales and revenues in manufacturing. Agrawal, Ferguson, Toktay and Thomas (2012) argue that the integration of manufacturing and services strengthens value addition in the production chain. Miroudot, Sauvage and Shepherd (2013) hold that a well-equipped, advanced services sector can fuel growth in other sectors through input and output linkages.Numerous other studies have looked at sectoral interdependencies in explaining the complementarity between growth and value addition in services and manufacturing.2 Their central argument is that integration between the two sectors enhances knowledge creation and, therefore, product development and engineering, thereby adding value to the manufacturing sector. However, this study questions whether the same interdependency applies in the case of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) bloc, where the services sector has grown rapidly and before the manufacturing sector could mature. We ask if this presents an opportunity or a threat to value addition in manufacturing.The SAARC countries are very similar with respect to their age as independent economies. They have a common history and social structures, and many of the same economic fundamentals. In recent decades, indicators have pointed to the services sector as the driver of economic growth in most SAARC countries, accounting for about 55 percent of their GDP on average (World Bank, 2012). The employment share of the services sector increased from 20 percent in the 1970s to 45 percent in 2002 (World Bank, 2012). This is also associated with the region's weak industrial base: in the two major SAARC economies, India and Pakistan, the contribution of the industrial sector to GDP and employment is still below the world average.The rapid growth of services long before the manufacturing sector has had a chance to mature has created economic growth pitfalls for the SAARC economies. We test the hypothesis that, in this region, value addition in the services sector has crowded out value addition in manufacturing. The rest of the study is organized as follows. Sections 2 and 3 present our empirical model, datasets, sample and estimation technique. Section 4 examines the empirical findings and carries out robustness checks. Section 5 concludes the study.2. Empirical ModelWe estimate the following baseline model, which draws on Chang, Kaltani and Loayza (2009); Musonera (2007); and Borensztein, De Gregorio and Lee (1998):(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.) (1)where VAMis the dependent variable, manufacturing value-added. On the right-hand side, VASit denotes services value-added, the variable of interest. Manufacturing value-added is the net output of the sector (the sum of all outputs less intermediate inputs) and comprises the value added in mining, large-scale construction, electricity, water and gas. …