1. Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study
- Author
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Levine, MM, Nasrin, D, Acacio, S, Bassat, Q, Powell, H, Tennant, SM, Sow, SO, Sur, D, Zaidi, AKM, Faruque, ASG, Hossain, MJ, Alonso, PL, Breiman, RF, O'Reilly, CE, Mintz, ED, Omore, R, Ochieng, JB, Oundo, JO, Tamboura, B, Sanogo, D, Onwuchekwa, U, Manna, B, Ramamurthy, T, Kanungo, S, Ahmed, S, Qureshi, S, Quadri, F, Hossain, A, Das, SK, Antonio, M, Saha, D, Mandomando, I, Blackwelder, WC, Farag, T, Wu, Y, Houpt, ER, Verweiij, JJ, Sommerfelt, H, Nataro, JP, Robins-Browne, RM, Kotloff, KL, Levine, MM, Nasrin, D, Acacio, S, Bassat, Q, Powell, H, Tennant, SM, Sow, SO, Sur, D, Zaidi, AKM, Faruque, ASG, Hossain, MJ, Alonso, PL, Breiman, RF, O'Reilly, CE, Mintz, ED, Omore, R, Ochieng, JB, Oundo, JO, Tamboura, B, Sanogo, D, Onwuchekwa, U, Manna, B, Ramamurthy, T, Kanungo, S, Ahmed, S, Qureshi, S, Quadri, F, Hossain, A, Das, SK, Antonio, M, Saha, D, Mandomando, I, Blackwelder, WC, Farag, T, Wu, Y, Houpt, ER, Verweiij, JJ, Sommerfelt, H, Nataro, JP, Robins-Browne, RM, and Kotloff, KL
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in ch
- Published
- 2020