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BackgroundInvasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States.ResultsWe used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod.ConclusionOur results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence-based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Insects that evolved in mesic regions may have difficulty establishing in xeric regions. Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) (Diptera: Tephritidae) was introduced into drier western North America from mesic eastern North America while Rhagoletis indifferens Curran is native to western North America. Here, we predicted that R. indifferens survives water deprivation longer than R. pomonella, as R. indifferens is more abundant than R. pomonella in dry central Washington (WA) State, USA. Sweet and bitter cherry-origin R. indifferens and apple- and hawthorn-origin R. pomonella from xeric central or mesic western WA were provided water throughout or were water-deprived at 2–4 and 14–18 d old and held at 20°C or 30/31°C and daily survival recorded. At 20°C and 30°C, western WA apple-origin R. pomonella provided water survived longer than sweet cherry-origin R. indifferens. When water-deprived, however, 2–4 d old R. indifferens, although smaller, survived significantly longer than western WA apple-origin R. pomonella of the same age. This was also generally true for 14–18 d old flies, although differences were less often significant. Central WA large-thorn hawthorn-origin R. pomonella survived water deprivation significantly longer than western WA apple-origin R. pomonella, and as long as R. indifferens. Water-deprived flies of both species survived longer at 20°C than 30/31°C. Survival analyses suggest that low water availability rather than high temperature contributes to lower R. pomonella than R. indifferens abundances in central WA, with R. pomonella populations in that region differing from western WA R. pomonella with respect to tolerance of xeric climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman, 1841) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), was first detected in southern Washington State in 2020. Widespread trapping efforts ensued, and over 23,000 individuals were collected in both 2021 and 2022 in this region known for specialty crop production. The invasion of Japanese beetle is of major concern as it feeds on over 300 plant species and has shown an ability to spread across landscapes. Here, we created a habitat suitability model for Japanese beetle in Washington and used dispersal models to forecast invasion scenarios. Our models predict that the area of current establishment occurs in a region with highly suitable habitat. Moreover, vast areas of habitat that are likely highly suitable for Japanese beetle occur in coastal areas of western Washington, with medium to highly suitable habitat in central and eastern Washington. Dispersal models suggested that the beetle could spread throughout Washington within 20 years without management, which justifies quarantine and eradication measures. Timely map-based predictions can be useful tools to guide management of invasive species while also increasing citizen engagement to invaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys Stål, 1855, is a polyphagous agricultural insect pest which causes serious production losses. BMSB also has human lifestyle impacts which arise from its habit of overwintering in homes. The invasiveness of BMSB and the harm it causes is making it a pest of increasing global importance. Over the past 30 years, the bug has spread from its native range in East Asia to North America and Europe. On November 2017 and January 2018, BMSBs were found at two Western Sydney locations in goods imported from northern Italy. While BMSB detections in imports are common in Australia, these encounters were significant because of sightings of bugs outside the infested premises, indicating possible spread into the local environment. Measures undertaken in Western Sydney to contain and eradicate BMSB included fumigation of infested goods, insecticide treatment of the warehouse site and surroundings and delimiting surveillance. Before commencing widespread surveillance, a vegetation survey was conducted to identify known host and potential BMSB host plants around the infested premises. ESRI Collector for ArcGIS™ was used to compile host plant location data which served as the basis for pheromone trap deployment and physical inspection. Surveillance continued until May 2018. No live BMSBs were detected. DNA analysis of dead BMSBs collected from infested goods discerned the presence of two different haplotypes (H): H1 (previously detected in North America, Europe and China) and H23 (North America and Japan). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]