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The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had “high” or “very high” vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

Synchrony of species alternations in the northern Humboldt (NHCS) and Kuroshio (KCS) Current systems was examined by comparing time series data of landings and population statistics of major small pelagic fish species along with climate indices from 1960 to 2015. Target species were anchovy Engraulis ringens, sardine Sardinops sagax, jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus in the NHCS, and anchovy E. japonicus, sardine S. melanostictus, jack mackerel T. japonicus and chub mackerel in the KCS. The time series of total biomass and spawning stock biomass (SSB) of anchovy and sardine for the NHCS and the KCS were well correlated, as were the landings data. Landings of small pelagic fish including jack mackerel and chub mackerel indicated that multi-species alternations may also be synchronous at a community level between the two current systems. Peak landings of jack mackerel and chub mackerel were observed between peaks of anchovy and sardine in both current systems, although the relationships between jack mackerel and chub mackerel differed between the current systems. The species alternations between anchovy and sardine are most reasonably attributable to environmentally-induced changes in the biomass as a major mechanism, although the effect of fishing activity cannot be excluded. Future studies will be required to compare biological characteristics of multiple small pelagic fish species in the pelagic food chain in each current system.

La presencia del jurel Trachurus murphyi ha sido registrado en los desembarques de la pesca artesanal en Perú desde 1907. A partir del año 2000, las capturas de T. murphyise ubicaron en el tercer lugar después de la anchoveta Engraulis ringensy el calamar gigante Dosidicus gigas. Las capturas de T. murphyison realizadas por la flota artesanal, industrial cerquera y barcos arrastreros factoría. En el año 2011, la flota industrial cerquera con permiso de pesca para T. murphyien la costa peruana estaba constituida por 62 embarcaciones industriales de acero (30177 m 3) y 42 industriales de madera (3082 m 3 ). Las capturas de T. murphyituvieron un notable incremento a partir de 1972, alcanzando sus máximos valores en 1977, 1996-97 y 2001, a los que siguieron años de muy baja disponibilidad que llevó al mínimo registro en las capturas en 2010. Sin embargo en el 2011 se revirtió esta baja disponibilidad y las capturas alcanzaron casi las 260000 toneladas. En el periodo 1972 – 2012 se observó una relación inversa entre los estimados de biomasa acústica del jurel T. murphyiy los desembarques anuales de anchoveta E. ringens. Las capturas mensuales de T. murphyipor la flota industrial y artesanal antes del 2002 fueron altas en la zona norte de Perú (Mancora-Chimbote), mientras que después del 2002 las capturas fueron altas en la zona centro-sur (Huacho-Ilo).

A hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was coupled to an individual-based fish model (IBM) to study the influence of physical and biological processes on Peruvian anchovy recruitment. Temperature and the concentrations of four plankton groups from a 1991 to 2007 simulation of a Pacific basin-scaled Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) coupled with the Carbon Silicate Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model were used as inputs to the anchovy IBM. The anchovy IBM domain covered the upwelling area (0–20°S and 70–85°W) from 0 to 100 m depth, and was 166 by 120 cells with 10 vertical. A cohort of eggs was started each month from 1991 to 2007, and individuals within each cohort followed through daily development, growth, mortality, and movement for one year. Growth was represented with a bioenergetic equation that used temperature and plankton concentrations from the ROMS–CoSiNE simulation as input. Mortality rate was stage-dependent and length-dependent. Movement of eggs and larvae was based on passive transport, and movement of juveniles and adults was a combination of passive transport and behavioral movement. Average number of days required to reach 5 cm and the number surviving to 5 cm were used as measures of recruitment. Averaged temperature and plankton concentrations within the IBM spatial domain showed strong interannual variation, and spatial and temporal patterns typical of the Peruvian upwelling system. Modeled anchovy growth and survival also showed strong interannual variation that resulted in large fluctuations in recruitment. Growth in a normal year resulted in anchovy requiring about 60–80 days to reach 5 cm and the number of recruits was around 1010. Averaged anchovy length and number of survivors after 6 months for all monthly cohorts combined showed that good growth conditions and high survival occurred in the region from 5°S to 17°S, within 200 km offshore and in the upper 100 m. Vertically, centers of population distribution occurred at depths of 10 m and between 50 and 70 m. During the 1997–1998 El Nino, anchovy growth rate decreased so that it took fish 150–270 days to reach 5 cm, and the numbers of survivors was about five orders of magnitude lower. Model results showed anchovy during El Nino conditions were located closer to shore, farther south, and at deeper depths than in normal years. Model results of interannual variation were insensitive to the length of anchovy used to define recruitment, how passive transport and behavioral movement were combined within different life stages, and to the starting locations of the monthly egg cohorts within the IBM domain. We discuss how our results can be used to infer anchovy recruitment under future climate change.

The recruitment rate of anchovy in the Peru–Chile upwelling system was studied by testing sensitive to environmental variability when the spawning stock is low in abundance. Times series of sea surface temperature, salinity, depth of the 15 °C isotherm, the upper limit of the oxygen minimum zone, upwelling indices, the Southern Oscillation Index, and indices El Nino 1+2 and El Nino 3.4 were summarized trough Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The first PCA (PC-I) explained 57% of variance and was related to interannual variability driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second Principal Component explained 15% of variance and was linked to upwelling indices. Anchovy recruitment rate anomalies were correlated with PC-I scores on the basis of a 6-year-moving-window and accumulated correlation as time progressed. Significant correlation coefficients were found when the spawning stock biomass was low in abundance before 1990. Once sufficient spawning biomass was accumulated (after 1990), the stock was less sensitive to environmental variability. Thus, sensitivity to environmental changes in anchovy, and probably in other small pelagic fishes, is stock-size dependent. This is a key aspect to be considered in the management of transboundary fish stock shared between Chile and Peru, upon current efforts to develop an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

The recruitment rate of Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, was studied to test the hypothesis that long-term environmental variation (regime shifts) had a significant impact on density-dependent processes governing the anchovy recruitment during the period 1963–2004. On the basis of previous defined regimes and turning points for the Humboldt Current System, we identified two groups of years for increased recruitment of anchoveta (1963–1971 and 1986–2004), and one unfavorable period (1972–1985). A common intercept and significantly different slopes were found when the recruitment rate was plotted as a function of the spawning stock biomass during those groups of years, suggesting that density-dependent effects on recruitment were affected during different climate regimes. The favorable (unfavorable) regime was characterized by higher (lower) zooplankton volumes, and with a higher frequency of colder (warmer) waters. Dome-shaped relationships between recruitment rate, spawning stock biomass and SST, were detected with a Generalized Additive Model for the favorable regime. Thus, recruitment could be explained by non-linear effects of environmental variables. Ultimately, climatic regimes are affecting the density-dependent effects on recruitment of anchoveta and the mechanisms involved may be associated with changes in the carrying capacity of the spawning habitat of anchoveta off Peru, which in turn are related with the effects of cold and warm regimes.

The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly's method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.Os parâmetros de crescimento e as taxas de mortalidade de Scomber japonicus peruanus (cavalinha) foram estudados a partir de dados mensais de freqüência de classes de comprimento provenientes do desembarque comercial ao longo da costa peruana no período de 1996 a 1998. Os valores do comprimento furcal assintótico e da taxa de crescimento obtido pelo ELEFAN I(Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) variaram de 40,20 cm a 42,20 cm e de 0,38 a 0,39, respectivamente. A amplitude de oscilação foi de 0,60; os valores de Winter point variaram de 0,5 a 0,6 e os do índice de performance entre 2,79 e 2,84. As taxas de mortalidade total da cavalinha obtidas pela análise da curva de captura linearizada oscilaram entre 1,68 e 3,35, sendo as variações das taxas de mortalidade por pesca e explotação de 1,16 a 2,78 e 0,68 a 0,84, respectivamente. A taxa anual de mortalidade natural estimada pelo método de Pauly variou de 0,52 a 0,53. Os resultados obtidos permitem inferir que a longevidade da cavalinha foi de pouco mais de sete anos.

Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi (JM) and chub mackerel Scomber japonicus (CM) are medium size pelagic fish predators and highly exploited resources. Here we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of JM and CM diet composition using a large dataset of stomach samples collected from 1973 to 2013 along the Peruvian coast. In total 47,535 stomachs (18,377 CM and 29,158 JM) were analysed, of which 23,570 (12,476 CM and 11,094 JM) were non-empty. Results show that both species are opportunistic and present a trophic overlap. However, despite their smaller maximal size, CM consumed more fish than JM. Both diets presented high spatiotemporal variability. Spatially, the shelf break appears as a strong biogeographical barrier affecting prey species distribution and thus CM and JM diet. Opportunistic foragers are often considered as actual indicators of ecosystem changes; we show here that diet composition of CM and JM reveal ecosystem changes but is not always a good indicator of changes in prey biomass as prey accessibility and energy content can also play an important role. In addition we found that El Nino events have a surprisingly weak effect on stomach fullness and diet. Finally our results show that the classic paradigm of positive correlation between diversity and temperature is unlikely to occur in the Humboldt Current system where productivity seems to be the main driver. We show how energy content of forage species and the strength of the oxygen minimum zone most likely play an important role prey diversity and accessibility, and thus in fish foraging behaviour.

Using data from stock assesment surveys on pelagic resources during El Nino events of 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, we analyze biological changes on pelagic ecosystems and pelagic fisheries during different stages of development of El Nino phenomenon: emergence, full, final and post-Nino. Results indicate changes in spatial distribution of resources, their concentration and size structure. In anchovy (Engraulis ringens) a decrease in biomass was observed, which was estimated at 1.2 million tons in September 1998, the lowest throughout the 1990s. This resource showed an asymmetric distribution towards the south of Peru. Other pelagic resources increased their biomass during or after Nino events, primarily sardine (Sardinops sagax), jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi), pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus), and longnose anchovy (Anchoa nasus). At the end of the El Nino phenomenon we found less productivity but more diversity in the pelagic ecosystem. During the 1997/98 El Nino, the diversity index (Manual de Ecologia, 1a Edition, Editorial Trillas, Mexico, 267pp) increased from 0.87 to 1.23–1.70. In both the emergence stage and fully developed stages of El Nino we found large numbers of sardine and longnose anchovy present simultaneously. Size structure of sardine, jack mackerel, and pacific mackerel showed an increase in juveniles. Anchovy during El Nino showed a single modal group composed of adults, but the post-Nino phase indicated an increase in juveniles with an average length of 6–7 cm. In El Nino conditions spawning among anchovy was low, but among sardine and pacific mackerel it was high. We observed, for the first time during full spawning, juvenile sardines with a total length of 18–20 cm. The anchovy spawning season during the post-Nino phase was considerably lengthened, from April to December 1998. Drastic change occurred in fisheries when monospecific fisheries, based on anchovy before El Nino, became multispecific fisheries based on sardine, jack mackerel, pacific mackerel, longnose anchovy and other species typical of tropical and warm oceans. Landings of anchovy decreased substantially, but those of longnose anchovy, jack mackerel, pacific mackerel, and sardine increased.

Of the four major eastern boundary currents, the Humboldt Current (HC) stands out because it is extremely productive, dominated by anchovy dynamics and subject to frequent direct environmental perturbations of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term dynamics of the HC ecosystem are controlled by shifts between alternating anchovy and sardine regimes that restructure the entire ecosystem from phytoplankton to the top predators. These regime shifts are caused by lasting periods of warm or cold temperature anomalies related to the approach or retreat of warm subtropical oceanic waters to the coast of Peru and Chile. Phases with mainly negative temperature anomalies parallel anchovy regimes (1950–1970; 1985 to the present) and the rather warm period from 1970 to 1985 was characterized by sardine dominance. The transition periods (turning points) from one regime to the other were 1968–1970 and 1984–1986. Like an El Nino, the warm periods drastically change trophic relationships in the entire HC ecosystem, exposing the Peruvian anchovy to a multitude of adverse conditions. Positive temperature anomalies off Peru drive the anchovy population close to the coast as the coastal upwelling cells usually offer the coolest environment, thereby substantially decreasing the extent of the areas of anchovy distribution and spawning. This enhances the effects of negative density-dependent processes such as egg and larval cannibalism and dramatically increases its catchability. Increased spatial overlap between anchovies and the warmer water preferring sardines intensifies anchovy egg mortality further as sardines feed heavily on anchovy eggs. Food sources for juvenile and adult anchovies which prey on a mixed diet of phyto- and zooplankton are drastically reduced because of decreased plankton production due to restricted upwelling in warm years, as demonstrated by lower zooplankton and phytoplankton volumes and the diminution of the fraction of large copepods, their main food source. Horse mackerel and mackerel, the main predators of anchovy, increase predation pressure on juvenile and adult anchovies due to extended invasion into the anchovy habitat in warmer years. In contrast to these periods of warm and cold temperature anomalies on the decadal scale, ENSO events do not play an important role for long-term anchovy dynamics, as the anchovy can recover even from strong ENSO events within 1–2 years. Consequently, the strong 1972–1973 ENSO event (in combination with overfishing) was not the cause of the famous crash of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in the 1970s.

Fishing data provide, with wide spatio-temporal coverage, inexpensive information about exploited species, but a precondition for their interpretation is a good comprehension of fish and fisher spatial dynamics and interactions. In Peru, anchovy (Engraulis ringens) is exploited by an industrial fleet of about 800 purse-seiners operating all along the coast. Using simultaneous acoustic survey and commercial fishing data for the 1998–2001 time period, we present a preliminary, exploratory, and empirical approach to identify the nature of potential interactions between Peruvian anchovy and fisher behaviour. We show that (i) Peruvian anchovy exhibited a composite spatial strategy for the study period, i.e. a change in biomass was associated with both change in geographical extension and density; (ii) fishing behaviour significantly varied within and among vessels in terms of travel duration, searching duration, and number of fishing sets; and (iii) interactions between fish and fisher behaviours differed according to the spatial scale. At a fish stock scale (the scale of fishing ground selection for fishers), fishing was more efficient with low biomass and high spatial concentration (low stock range and high biomass); at a local fish spatial scale (the scale of searching for a school inside the fishing ground), fishing performance was favoured by high mean local abundances and low spatial concentration (the way fish is distributed inside its stock range); finally, at the school scale (the scale of the fishing set), both high abundance and high spatial concentration were favourable to fishing success.

In the Pacific Ocean, air and ocean temperatures, atmospheric carbon dioxide, landings of anchovies and sardines, and the productivity of coastal and open ocean ecosystems have varied over periods of about 50 years. In the mid-1970s, the Pacific changed from a cool “anchovy regime” to a warm “sardine regime.” A shift back to an anchovy regime occurred in the middle to late 1990s. These large-scale, naturally occurring variations must be taken into account when considering human-induced climate change and the management of ocean living resources.

En el período abril 1997 setiembre 1998 fueron realizados 5 cruceros de evaluación de los recursos pelágicos en la costa peruana, éstos permitieron observar cambios en la composición por especies, distribución, estructura por tamaño, reproducción y niveles poblacionales de los principales recursos pelágicos. Estos cambios guardan similitud con los observados en los eventos El Niño 1972-73 y 1982-83, especialmente en cuanto a la disminución de la biomasa de anchoveta y el incremento de otras especies pelágicas. En el período post-Niño se observó cambios notables en la estructura por tallas de anchoveta, mientras que la sardina, samas a y caballa coincidieron en mostrar buenos reclutamientos. La actividad reproductiva también se incrementó, inclusive en tallas juveniles, destacando la incidencia de sardinas sexualmente maduras con longitudes de 18-20 cm, situación que no había sido antes registrada., Five evaluation cruises for pelagic resources were performed between April1997 and September 1998 on Peruvian coast, these allowed to observe changes in composition by species, distribution, size structure, reproduction, and population levels. These changes are similar to those observed in both El Niño 1972-73 and 1982-83, especially with respect to anchovy biomass decrease and increase of other pelagic species. Considerable changes in anchovy size structure in post-Niño period were observed, while sardine, samasa and Pacific mackerel showed good recruitment. Also the reproductive activity was increased, even in juveniles, with outstanding proliferation of sexual mature sardine with 18-20 cm length, this situation has not been recorded before.

International audience; The spatial behavior of numerous fishing fleets is nowadays well documented thanks to satellite Vessel Monitoring Systems (VMS). Vessel positions are recorded on a frequent and regular basis which opens promising perspectives for improving fishing effort estimation and management. However, no specific information is provided on whether the vessel is fishing or not. To answer that question, existing works on VMS data usually apply simple criteria (e.g. threshold on speed). Those simple criteria generally focus in detecting true positives (a true fishing set detected as a fishing set); conversely, estimation errors are given no attention. For our case study, the Peruvian anchovy fishery, those criteria overestimate the total number of fishing sets by 182%. To overcome this problem an artificial neural network (ANN) approach is presented here. In order to set both the optimal parameterization and use "rules" for this ANN, we perform an extensive sensitivity analysis on the optimization of (1) the internal structure and training algorithm of the ANN and (2) the "rules" used for choosing both the relative size and the composition of the databases (DBs) used for training and inferring with the ANN. The "optimized" ANN greatly improves the estimates of the number and location of fishing events. For our case study, ANN reduces the total estimation error on the number of fishing sets to 1% (in average) and obtains 76% of true positives. This spatially explicit information on effort, provided with error estimation, should greatly reduce misleading interpretations of catch per unit effort and thus significantly improve the adaptive management of fisheries. While fitted on Peruvian anchovy fishery data, this type of neural network approach has wider potential and could be implemented in any fishery relying on both VMS and at-sea observer data. In order to increase the accuracy of the ANN results, we also suggest some criteria for improving sampling design by at-sea observers and VMS data.

Barangé, Manuel ... et al., The assessment and management of small pelagic fish (SPF) stocks is particularly difficult and uncertain because their short life expectancy, characteristic aggregative behavior, rapid response to climate and environmental signals and large and variable natural mortality make them less tractable through traditional population dynamic models and assumptions. In this review we summarize the assessment and management approaches applied in 29 SPF stocks or management units (12 anchovy, 10 sardine, 4 herring, and 3 sprat). The review demonstrates that the assessment and management of SPF varies substantially in its approach and performance between stocks and regions. Most stocks have a scientific assessment program in place and a management approach that generally takes into account assessment results, but in some stocks management practices deviate substantially from scientific advice and in some, assessment and management processes are largely disconnected. It is concluded that only properly tailored scientific assessment and management programs can provide the speed of response and the flexibility of management that highly variable SPF demand. The most effective monitoring programs are based on fishery-independent surveys (daily egg production or/and hydroacoustics), while analyses based on catch per unit effort offer limited value. Most assessments, defined as what management uses to base its decisions on, rely on catch-at-age or yield per recruit models. Harvest strategies range from those driven by harvest control rules to those derived from outputs of best assessment runs. Some stocks use operating models based on age–structure model outputs or forward VPA. On the issue of scientific uncertainty some practitioners propose reducing it through additional science and measures, while others promote the development of management procedures robust to uncertainty

Paleontological and historical stock abundance estimates indicate that pelagic fish populations inhabiting upwelling ecosystems undergo large interdecadal variations in abundance with amplitudes equal to, if not larger than, the interannual variability. The interdecadal variability is characterized by periods of high and low abundance, termed “pseudo-cycles”, because of their irregular periodicity. Fisheries targeting small pelagic fish suffer from overall overcapitalization, like many other fisheries, but also from an additional overcapitalization problem: a phase displacement between rapid fish population decreases and a slower disinvestment which follows. This lag produces economic hardship. Here we document the fish:fishery relationship for the Peruvian anchoveta. Anchoveta pseudo-cycles of 20 to >100 years are observed, with the present stock abundance most likely located near upper part of the cycle. Fleet overcapacity expressed as the proportion of unused present capacity is estimated at 72% and processing overcapacity at 89%. A simple bio-economic model demonstrates the risks associated with the pseudo-periodicity in fish stock abundance in conjunction with fishery investment, open access, and overcapacity: a timing bomb for the fishing sector. The lag between disinvestment and decrease in fish abundance is quantified. A reduction of the fishing and processing capacity and measures to decrease the investment lag are recommended to limit the social, economical and political tensions that will result from the expected decrease in stock abundance. Finally, some management options to reduce these risks are discussed.