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This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution and surface flux formulas on typhoon intensity and structure simulations through the case study of the Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013). Three sets of surface flux formulas in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model were tested using grid spacings of 1, 3, and 6 km. Increased resolution and more reasonable surface flux formulas can both improve typhoon intensity simulation, but their effects on storm structures differ. A combination of a decrease in momentum transfer coefficient and an increase in enthalpy transfer coefficients has greater potential to yield a stronger storm. This positive effect of more reasonable surface flux formulas can be efficiently enhanced when the grid spacing is appropriately reduced to yield an intense and contracted eyewall structure. As the resolution increases, the eyewall becomes more upright and contracts inward. The size of updraft cores in the eyewall shrinks, and the region of downdraft increases; both updraft and downdraft become more intense. As a result, the enhanced convective cores within the eyewall are driven by more intense updrafts within a rather small fraction of the spatial area. This contraction of the eyewall is associated with an upper-level warming process, which may be partly attributed to air detrained from the intense convective cores. This resolution dependence of spatial scale of updrafts is related to the model effective resolution as determined by grid spacing.

An exacerbated precipitation–temperature relationship can lead to compound extremes. The role of clouds in such a relationship is relatively uncertain. Here, we investigate the cloud–precipitation–temperature relationships over the Indochina Peninsula during the summer monsoon transition. The negative correlation between cloudiness/precipitation and surface maximum temperature is valid on seasonal and interannual timescales. The near-surface temperature exhibits interdecadal variability and a long-term warming trend. The warming trend has accelerated in the past two decades. In the anomalous warm years, the remarkably strong western Pacific subtropical high inhibits the development of clouds, especially the middle and high cloud-top regimes, leading to the suppression of deep convection and precipitation. There are more optically thin (moderate to thick) clouds with smaller (larger) effective radii in the high cloud-top regime for the warm (cold) years. The dominance of shallow cumulus is a distinct feature in the warm years. The daytime heating of enhanced surface insolation due to decreased cloudiness is worsened by the dry condition of the precipitation deficit. The water vapor warming effect can prevent an efficient drop in nighttime temperature, thereby exacerbating the warm condition under the warming trend. The cloud–precipitation–temperature relationships coupling with the monsoon development can be used to diagnose the regional scale cloud–climate interactions in climate models.

This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, and both the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were secondary contributors for the heatwave, but with different effect directions. The major contributor to the heatwave over WE was AL. These causal relationships remained valid when the evolution of warm spells was considered. A multi-model ensemble of real-time forecasts from the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) database captured the evolution of the warm spells over SC and WE up to 3 weeks in advance. However, the predictions of heatwave occurrence and significance for the two regions are unsatisfactory. BL and AL can be predicted 2 weeks in advance, resulting in the successful predictions of warm spells over SC and WE. Although variations in Azores High and NAO were captured in the forecasts, their contribution to the warm spells remains unclear.

This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC), and Kaohsiung (KH), in the past four decades (1971–2010). According to the data availability, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003–2012) and simulated under the future warming scenario for the end of this century (2075–2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution. Analysis showed that past decade (2001–2010) saw increase not only in the number of HW days in all three cities but also in the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW well captures the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003–2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075–2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075–2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ≥ 31 °C). Even the median of WBGT in TC and KH (30.91 and 30.88 °C, respectively) are close to 31 °C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

This study investigates the impacts of horizontal resolution and surface flux formulas on typhoon intensity and structure simulations through the case study of the Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013). Three different sets of surface flux formulas in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model were tested using grid spacing of 1, 3, and 6 km. Both increased resolution and more reasonable surface flux formulas can improve typhoon intensity simulation, but their impacts on storm structures are different. A combination of decrease in momentum transfer coefficient and increase in enthalpy transfer coefficients has greater potential to yield stronger storm. This positive effect of more reasonable surface flux formulas can be efficiently enhanced when the grid spacing is appropriately reduced to yield intense and contracted eyewall structure. As resolution increases, the eyewall becomes more upright and contracted inward. The size of updraft cores in the eyewall shrinks and the region of downdraft increases; both updraft and downdraft become more intense. As a result, the enhanced convective cores within the eyewall are driven by more intense updrafts within a rather small fraction of spatial area. This contraction of eyewall is associated with an upper level warming process, which may be partly attributed to air detrained from the intense convective cores. This resolution dependence of spatial scale of updrafts is related to the model effective resolution as determined by grid spacing.

This paper examines the springtime cloud properties in the Taiwan Strait (TS), with emphases on their dependence on synoptic controls and local processes, using a suite of in situ and remote sensing observations. Cloud properties in the TS are inferred from a combination of MODIS and in situ observations and further classified into two synoptic conditions: continental cold air surge and frontal system. The study reveals a predominance of synoptic-scale controls in regulating the cloud properties in the TS. The sensitivity of clouds to the local thermodynamic mechanisms as well as the underlying surface conditions is fundamentally dependent on synoptic-scale flow patterns. The springtime clouds over the TS are commonly a mixture of stratocumulus and alto clouds. More precisely, there is a preponderance of stratocumulus over the strait. A preferential occupancy of stratiform alto clouds is recognized during cold air surge, whereas vertical development of cloud layers (mostly the stratocumulus) is commonly observed with frontal passage. The most distinct difference between the local clouds formation associated with the two synoptic conditions is the suppression of very low cloud and fog along with cold air surge. Stratus clouds and fog are present within the northward prefrontal airflow from warmer to colder water sites, along with an increase in stability relating to lower altitudes of boundary layer clouds. Although the rainfall occurrences are about the same for both synoptic conditions, the frontal rain amounts are larger on average.

The impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on severe weather predictions in East Asia is introduced and reviewed. Both the local observation operator that assimilates the retrieved refractivity as local point measurement, and the nonlocal observation operator that assimilates the integrated retrieved refractivity along a straight raypath have been utilized in WRF 3DVAR to improve the initial analysis of the model. A general evaluation of the impact of these approaches on Asian regional analysis and daily prediction is provided in this paper. In general, the GPS RO data assimilation may improve prediction of severe weather such as typhoons and Mei-yu systems when COSMIC data were available, ranging from several points in 2006 to a maximum of about 60 in 2007 and 2008 in this region. Based on a number of experiments, regional model predictions at 5 km resolution were not significantly influenced by different observation operators, although the nonlocal observation operator sometimes results in slightly better track forecast. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan. The impact of 56 GPS RO soundings on track prediction of Cyclone Gonu (2007) over the Indian Ocean is also appealing when compared to other tracks assimilated with different observations. From a successive evaluation of skill scores for real-time forecasts on Mei-yu frontal systems operationally conducted over a longer period and predictions of six typhoons in 2008, assimilation of GPS RO data appears to have some positive impact on regional weather predictions, on top of existent assimilation with all other observations.

The unique role of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset process in the development of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is demonstrated in this study. The SCSSM onset process is examined in terms of the vertical linkage between the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH). A composite analysis is performed in order to adequately describe the vertical linkage in a synoptic timescale. The South China Sea (SCS) is a key region for the seasonal migrations of the WPSH and the SAH, with the former retreating northeastward, the latter advancing northwestward, and both taking place over the SCS during the SCSSM onset period. The SCSSM onset process is characterized by a significant change in the relative configuration of the ridge lines of the WPSH and the SAH. Just prior to the onset period, the ridge lines intersect vertically over the SCS, thus prohibiting convective activities. During the onset period, the ridge line intersection moves away from the SCS due to the retreating WPSH and the northward shift of the SAH ridge line. This coincides with the emergence of monsoonal convective activities over the SCS and the establishment of a moisture channel from the tropics, which in turn provides favorable conditions for the development of deep convective activity. The northeastward intrusion of the lower level southwesterlies and the moisture supplying channel are closely related to the development of a preexisting twin cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The northeastward lower level southwesterlies form a monsoonal ascending motion in the SCS, which further merges upward into the northeasterlies to the south of the SAH ridge line. This is a signature of the establishment of the local Hadley circulation, which marks the beginning of the EASM. The frontal system is the most frequent attendant synoptic event during the SCSSM onset. From the viewpoint of synoptic process, the SCSSM undergoes a two-stage onset process which is characterized by the southward intrusion of the frontal system in the earlier stage and the outbreak of the tropical convection in the later stage. The frontal system may act as a trigger for the outbreak of the tropical convection in the later stage. The burst out of the monsoonal convection over the SCS is essential for the breakdown of the vertical intersection between the WPSH and the SAH therein.

This study investigated the air-sea interaction over the Kuroshio in the East China Sea by focusing on the response and feedback of the ocean to typical spring weather events. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model was coupled with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model for use in the study. The study period comprised a sequence of typical weathers in the area: prevailing southwesterly winds, the passage of a cold front and the ensuing cold-air outbreak, and the development of a Taiwan low. The air-sea interaction operated on a diurnal time scale under conditions of moderate wind speeds, high insolation, and a shallow oceanic mixed layer. The sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content increased progressively prior to the frontal passage. The model reproduced the retreat of Kuroshio in response to the strong wind during the cold-air outbreak. The diurnal cycle vanished at high wind speeds. Wind stirring eroded the upper seasonal thermocline and deepened the oceanic mixed layer. The upper ocean heat content decreased because of entrainment cooling and surface heat losses. Surface restratification was subsequently suppressed in the thick and weakly stratified remnant layer. The consequently insufficient recovery of upper ocean heat content may have preconditioned a stagnation of the Taiwan low. The recovery of upper ocean heat content was discussed to derive the implication for climate simulations.

This study investigates heat waves in Taiwan and their maintenance mechanism, based upon observations and dynamically downscaled simulations. A 95th percentile threshold is used for identifying hot extremes over a period of consecutive days. Heat waves are forecast to become more severe in the future projection. Daily minimum temperatures are generally high and diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) are relatively large. The daily minimum temperature serves as the primary control in the variation in DTR during heat waves. An apparent increase in the daily minimum temperature suggests elevated heat stress at nighttime during future heat waves. Heat waves in Taiwan are associated with abnormal warming and drying atmospheric conditions under the control of an enhanced western North Pacific subtropical high. The surrounding waters serve as a vast moisture source to suppress the drying magnitude in the surface layer as the temperature rises, thereby ensuring a high humidity level during the hot spell. The subsidence and adiabatic warming above can trap the warm and humid air in the surface layer, leading to positive feedback to the abnormally hot surface condition. The associated warming and drying atmospheric conditions cover certain spatial extents, suggesting that the extreme situation identified here is not confined to just an island-wide hot spell; the abnormal hot weather can take place across a broad geographical area.

The reliability of tropical cyclone intensity estimates for the western North Pacific is assessed in the context of wind–pressure relationships. Four best-track datasets compiled in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) are compared to assess the data consistency. Over the past 20 yr period (1991–2010), apparent interagency discrepancies in the archived tropical cyclone intensities are found. Heavy reliance upon operational wind–pressure relationships may reduce subjective biases at the cost of potential loss of tropical cyclone natural variability. Given that the intercomparisons are performed based upon a set of identical tropical cyclones, the differences in operational wind–pressure relationships and in the mapping of satellite tropical cyclone intensity classification for these relationships are presumably critical causes of the interagency discrepancies. This result calls for imperative refinement of current satellite-based tropical cyclone intensity estimates and reanalysis of historical tropical cyclone best-track archives for the basin.

Typhoon Bilis which struck Taiwan in July 2006 was chosen to assess the potential impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) refractivity soundings on numerical simulation using the WRF model. We found that this case elucidates the impact of the limited GPS RO soundings on typhoon prediction due to their favorable locations. In addition, on top of available precipitable water (PW) and near-surface wind speed from S SM/I data, we have also explored their combined impacts on model prediction. The two GPS RO soundings available from FORMOSAT-3 near the model initial time are assimilated using the nonlocal operator in WRF 3DVAR. More contributions after the assimilation are found in the moisture increments (up to -1.2 g kg^(-1)) surrounding the corresponding occultation positions to the east of the typhoon vortex and southwest of the subtropical high, with dryness occurring in the lower troposphere. The assimilation of PW induces much larger and wider moisture increments to the west of the typhoon center. The ingestion of near-surface wind speeds produces more pronounced temperature and wind increments at lower levels. The S SM/I data improve the predictions of typhoon intensity and intense rainfall over Taiwan, especially for the later simulation time, but generally have a less impact on track prediction as compared to the GPS RO data. Assimilation of the two GPS RO soundings leads to a marked improvement on the track that otherwise will be southward biased prior to landfall and also enhances the positive impact when the SSMII data have been assimilated as well. An improvement using the GPS RO data is also found for daily rainfall but only for larger thresholds at later times when the bias in track in the control experiment is remedied. In general, the combined assimilation of both GPS RO and SSM/I data has shown the most promising performances. Finally, the sensitivity tests indicate that the closer GPS RO sounding to the east of the typhoon plays a more crucial role in the positive impact on track prediction.

In this study, PSU/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate the evolution of the 1998 East Asian summer monsoon onset over the South China Sea (SCS). Simulation outputs are further utilized to study the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their interactions with the synoptic/large-scale environment in the SCS region. During the monsoon onset, over southern China and the SCS, high equivalent potential temperature, convective instability, and the southwesterly confluence in the lower troposphere provided favorable large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions for the MCS development. Model simulated results reveal that, in a warm-moist and unstable atmosphere, the downdraft outflows as a result of the MCS development could become a possible mesoscale triggering mechanism for the formation of a new MCS. Sensitivity tests depict the effect of latent heat release playing a significant role in the establishment of monsoon circulation. The terrain effect is significant for local cloud formation over land. For well organized MCSs occurring over the SCS, the influence of the mesoscale wind field is more important. The latent heat release in MCSs heats the atmosphere, reduces the surface pressure, and therefore enhances the low-level wind convergence and cyclonic circulation. The mesoscale adjustment of wind field and mass field, on one hand, enhances the MCS development or initiates the formation of a new MCS, and the organization of MCSs, on the other hand, integrates the mesoscale disturbances into a synoptic structure and forms the local monsoon trough. Without the latent heat release, monsoon circulation cannot establish itself even if the model provides favorable large-scale boundary forcing.