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The Land Use/Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS) is an evenly spaced in situ land cover and land use ground survey exercise that extends over the whole of the European Union. LUCAS was carried out in 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018. A new LUCAS module specifically tailored to Earth observation (EO) was introduced in 2018: the LUCAS Copernicus module. The module surveys the land cover extent up to 51 m in four cardinal directions around a point of observation, offering in situ data compatible with the spatial resolution of high-resolution sensors. However, the use of the Copernicus module being marginal, the goal of the paper is to facilitate its uptake by the EO community. First, the paper summarizes the LUCAS Copernicus protocol to collect homogeneous land cover on a surface area of up to 0.52 ha. Secondly, it proposes a methodology to create a ready-to-use dataset for Earth observation land cover and land use applications with high-resolution satellite imagery. As a result, a total of 63 364 LUCAS points distributed over 26 level-2 land cover classes were surveyed on the ground. Using homogeneous extent information in the four cardinal directions, a polygon was delineated for each of these points. Through geospatial analysis and by semantically linking the LUCAS core and Copernicus module land cover observations, 58 426 polygons are provided with level-3 land cover (66 specific classes including crop type) and land use (38 classes) information as inherited from the LUCAS core observation. The open-access dataset supplied with this paper (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12382667.v4 d'Andrimont, 2020) provides a unique opportunity to train and validate decametric sensor-based products such as those obtained from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites. A follow-up of the LUCAS Copernicus module is already planned for 2022. In 2022, a simplified version of the LUCAS Copernicus module will be carried out on 150 000 LUCAS points for which in situ surveying is planned. This guarantees a continuity in the effort to find synergies between statistical in situ surveying and the need to collect in situ data relevant for Earth observation in the European Union.

The frequent acquisitions of fine spatial resolution imagery (10 m) offered by recent multispectral satellite missions, including Sentinel-2, can resolve single agricultural fields and thus provide crop-specific phenology metrics, a crucial information for crop monitoring. However, effective phenology retrieval may still be hampered by significant cloud cover. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations are not restricted by weather conditions, and Sentinel-1 thus ensures more frequent observations of the land surface. However, these data have not been systematically exploited for phenology retrieval so far. In this study, we extracted crop-specific land surface phenology (LSP) from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 of major European crops (common and durum wheat, barley, maize, oats, rape and turnip rape, sugar beet, sunflower, and dry pulses) using ground-truth information from the “Copernicus module” of the Land Use/Cover Area frame statistical Survey (LUCAS) of 2018. We consistently used a single model-fit approach to retrieve LSP metrics on temporal profiles of CR (Cross Ratio, the ratio of the backscattering coefficient VH/VV from Sentinel-1) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from Sentinel-2). Our analysis revealed that LSP retrievals from Sentinel-1 are comparable to those of Sentinel-2, particularly for winter crops. The start of season (SOS) timings, as derived from Sentinel-1 and -2, are significantly correlated (average r of 0.78 for winter and 0.46 for summer crops). The correlation is lower for end of season retrievals (EOS, r of 0.62 and 0.34). Agreement between LSP derived from Sentinel-1 and -2 varies among crop types, ranging from r = 0.89 and mean absolute error MAE = 10 days (SOS of dry pulses) to r = 0.15 and MAE = 53 days (EOS of sugar beet). Observed deviations revealed that Sentinel-1 and -2 LSP retrievals can be complementary; for example for winter crops we found that SAR detected the start of the spring growth while multispectral data is sensitive to the vegetative growth before and during winter. To test if our results correspond reasonably to in-situ data, we compared average crop-specific LSP for Germany to average phenology from ground phenological observations of 2018 gathered from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). Our study demonstrated that both Sentinel-1 and -2 can provide relevant and at times complementary LSP information at field- and crop-level., Highlights • Crop-specific phenology retrieved from Senetinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series. • European Union wide survey LUCAS exploited to focus on major European crops. • Comparable phenology from cross polarization ratio VH/VV and from Sentinel-2 NDVI. • Retrieved phenology consistent with ground phenological observation from DWD. • Sentinel-1 and -2 provide relevant and at times complementary LSP information.

Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental datasets, that these types of designs usually give less biased estimates than simpler observational designs. We propose a model-based approach to combine study estimates that may suffer from different levels of study design bias, discuss the implications for evidence synthesis, and how to facilitate the use of more credible study designs., Randomised controlled experiments are the gold standard for scientific inference, but environmental and social scientists often rely on different study designs. Here the authors analyse the use of six common study designs in the fields of biodiversity conservation and social intervention, and quantify the biases in their estimates.

Agriculture monitoring, and in particular food security, requires near real-time information on crop growing conditions for early detection of possible production deficits. In this work, we propose the use of Gaussian processes (GPs). together with in-situ, EO and ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data for crop yield forecasting. Country-level agricultural survey data from FAOSTAT are used for quantitative assessment. The study is conducted in the framework of the ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) early warning decision support system of the European Commission, which aims at providing timely information about possible crop production anomalies worldwide. After grouping countries with similar growing season periods, we We show that GP models allow predicting the yield of the different planted crops within such groups with coefficient of determination R2 ranging from 0.5 to 0.95. For each country and crop, a better fit that the mean of the data is obtained in all cases, and the errors obtained are comparable to the ones obtained for the group. The proposed modelling framework can be potentially adopted in ASAP operations to forecast national level crop yield and production.

For those developing satellite-based insurance products, there is no consensus in the scientific community on which of the many available indices most accurately track agro-ecological shocks as experienced by farmers and pastoralists. Furthermore, metrics commonly used by the remote sensing community for assessing the accuracy of indices in retrieving biophysical variables are insufficient in the case of insurance, because they do not consider the value of insurance coverage in terms of household welfare. This study begins to fill this knowledge gap by bridging two index insurance literatures: the remote sensing science literature that focuses on the predictive power of indices, and the economic literature that focuses on welfare outcomes. The article uses a longitudinal panel of household survey data from Kenya to compare the quality of existing and potential insurance products. These products are developed from different processing chains applied to time series of the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Although the indices are highly correlated to each other (ρ > 0.95), a utility analysis provides insight into how small differences can lead to larger differences in product value. Our results highlight that index accuracy, cost, and timeliness of payments must be considered jointly when assessing insurance quality for clients.

For food crises early warning purposes, coarse spatial resolution NDVI data are widely used to monitor vegetation conditions in near real-time (NRT). Different types of NDVI anomalies are typically employed to assess the current state of crops and rangelands as compared to previous years. Timeliness and accuracy of such anomalies are critical factors to an effective monitoring. Temporal smoothing can efficiently reduce noise and cloud contamination in the time series of historical observations, where data points are available before and after each observation to be smoothed. With NRT data, smoothing methods are adapted to cope with the unbalanced availability of data before and after the most recent data points. These NRT approaches provide successive updates of the estimation of the same data point as more observations become available. Anomalies compare the current NDVI value with some statistics (e.g. indicators of central tendency and dispersion) extracted from the historical archive of observations. With multiple updates of the same datasets being available, two options can be selected to compute anomalies, i.e. using the same update level for the NRT data and the statistics or using the most reliable update for the latter. In this study we assess the accuracy of three commonly employed 1 km MODIS NDVI anomalies (standard scores, non-exceedance probability and vegetation condition index) with respect to (1) delay with which they become available and (2) option selected for their computation. We show that a large estimation error affects the earlier estimates and that this error is efficiently reduced in subsequent updates. In addition, with regards to the preferable option to compute anomalies, we empirically observe that it depends on the type of application (e.g. averaging anomalies value over an area of interest vs. detecting “drought” conditions by setting a threshold on the anomaly value) and the employed anomaly type. Finally, we map the spatial pattern in the magnitude of NRT anomaly estimation errors over the globe and relate it to average cloudiness., Highlights • We compute three types of near real-time coarse resolution NDVI anomalies. • Errors in near real-time anomaly estimation are assessed. • We investigate the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. • We explore two options for the computation of near real-time anomalies • The choice of the best option depends on the type of application and the employed anomaly type.

Global food security is negatively affected by drought. Climate projections show that drought frequency and intensity may increase in different parts of the globe. These increases are particularly hazardous for developing countries. Early season forecasts on drought occurrence and severity could help to better mitigate the negative consequences of drought. The objective of this study was to assess if interannual variability in agricultural productivity in Chile can be accurately predicted from freely-available, near real-time data sources. As the response variable, we used the standard score of seasonal cumulative NDVI (zcNDVI), based on 2000–2017 data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), as a proxy for anomalies of seasonal primary productivity. The predictions were performed with forecast lead times from one- to six-month before the end of the growing season, which varied between census units in Chile. Predictor variables included the zcNDVI obtained by cumulating NDVI from season start up to prediction time; standardised precipitation indices derived from satellite rainfall estimates, for time-scales of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months; the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Multivariate ENSO oscillation indices; the length of the growing season, and latitude and longitude. For each of the 758 census units considered, the time series of the response and the predictor variables were averaged for agricultural areas resulting in a 17-season time series per unit for each variable. We used two prediction approaches: (i) optimal linear regression (OLR) whereby for each census unit the single predictor was selected that best explained the interannual zcNDVI variability, and (ii) a multi-layer feedforward neural network architecture, often called deep learning (DL), where all predictors for all units were combined in a single spatio-temporal model. Both approaches were evaluated with a leave-one-year-out cross-validation procedure. Both methods showed good prediction accuracies for small lead times and similar values for all lead times. The mean Rcv2 values for OLR were 0.95, 0.83, 0.68, 0.56, 0.46 and 0.37, against 0.96, 0.84, 0.65, 0.54, 0.46 and 0.38 for DL, for one, two, three, four, five, and six months lead time, respectively. Given the wide range of climates and vegetation types covered within the study area, we expect that the presented models can contribute to an improved early warning system for agricultural drought in different geographical settings around the globe.

Detailed parcel-level crop type mapping for the whole European Union (EU) is necessary for the evaluation of agricultural policies. The Copernicus program, and Sentinel-1 (S1) in particular, offers the opportunity to monitor agricultural land at a continental scale and in a timely manner. However, so far the potential of S1 has not been explored at such a scale. Capitalizing on the unique LUCAS 2018 Copernicus in-situ survey, we present the first continental crop type map at 10-m spatial resolution for the EU based on S1A and S1B Synthetic Aperture Radar observations for the year 2018. Random forest classification algorithms are tuned to detect 19 different crop types. We assess the accuracy of this EU crop map with three approaches. First, the accuracy is assessed with independent LUCAS core in-situ observations over the continent. Second, an accuracy assessment is done specifically for main crop types from farmers declarations from 6 EU member countries or regions totaling >3M parcels and 8.21 Mha. Finally, the crop areas derived by classification are compared to the subnational (NUTS 2) area statistics reported by Eurostat. The overall accuracy for the map is reported as 80.3% when grouping main crop classes and 76% when considering all 19 crop type classes separately. Highest accuracies are obtained for rape and turnip rape with user and produced accuracies higher than 96%. The correlation between the remotely sensed estimated and Eurostat reported crop area ranges from 0.93 (potatoes) to 0.99 (rape and turnip rape). Finally, we discuss how the framework presented here can underpin the operational delivery of in-season high-resolution based crop mapping., 19 pages, 11 Figures, 5 Tables (without appendix)

The Land Use/Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS) is a regular in-situ land cover and land use ground survey exercise that extends over the whole of the European Union. LUCAS was carried out in 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018. A new LUCAS module specifically tailored to Earth Observation was introduced in 2018: the LUCAS Copernicus module, aiming at surveying land cover extent up to 51 meters in four cardinal directions around a point of observation. This paper first summarizes the LUCAS Copernicus protocol to collect homogeneous land cover on a surface area of up to a 0.52 ha. Secondly, it proposes a methodology to create a ready-to-use dataset for Earth Observation land cover and land use applications with high resolution satellite imagery. As a result, a total of 63,364 LUCAS points distributed over 26 level-2 land cover classes were surveyed on the ground. Using homogeneous extent information in the four cardinal direction, a polygon was delineated for each of such point. Through geo-spatial analysis and by semantically linking the LUCAS core and Copernicus land cover observations, 58,428 polygons are provided with a level-3 land cover (66 specific classes including crop type) and land use (38 classes) information as inherited from the LUCAS core observation. The open-access dataset supplied with this manuscript (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12382667.v3) provides a unique opportunity to train and validate decametric sensor-based products such as those obtained from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 and -2 satellites. A follow-up of the LUCAS Copernicus module is already planned for 2022. In 2022, a simplified version of the LUCAS Copernicus module will be carried out on 150,000 LUCAS points for which in-situ surveying is planned. This guarantees a continuity in the effort to find synergies between statistical in-situ surveying and the need to collect in-situ data relevant for Earth Observation in the European Union.

Monitoring agricultural production in vulnerable developing countries is important for food security assessment and requires near real-time (NRT) information on crop growing conditions for early detection of possible production deficits. The public online ASAP system (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) is an early warning decision support tool based on weather data and direct observation of crop status as provided by remote sensing. Although decision makers and food security analysts are the main targeted user groups, all the information is fully made available to the public in a simple and well documented online platform. The information further contributes to multi-agency early warning products such as the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning and food security assessments following the IPC-Cadre Harmonisé framework.Low resolution remote sensing (1 km) and meteorological (5-25 km) data are processed automatically every 10 days and vegetation anomaly warnings are triggered at the first sub-national administrative level. The severity of the warnings is based on the observed land surface phenology and three main derived indicators computed at the 1 km grid level: a proxy of the current season biomass production (the cumulative value of the Normalized Difference Vegetation index from the start of season); an indicator of precipitation deficit (the Standardized Precipitation Index at the 3 month scale); and a water-balance model output (the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index).Warning maps and summary information are published on a web GIS every ten days and then further analyzed by analysts every month. This results in the identification of hotspot countries with potentially critical crop or rangelands production conditions.In addition to the hotspots analysis and the warning explorer, users can also zoom in to the parcel level thank to the so called High Resolution Viewer, a web interface based on Google Earth Engine that allows to visualize Sentinels (1 and 2) and Landsat imagery, plot temporal profiles and perform basic anomaly operation (e.g. current year NDVI anomaly with respect to a reference year). In the near future it is planned to make the anomaly warnings available also at the second sub-national level and to integrate meteorological forecasts in the warning system.

Estimating crop yields is becoming increasingly relevant under the current context of an expanding world population accompanied by rising incomes in a changing climate. Crop growth, crop development, and final grain yield are all determined by environmental conditions in a complex nonlinear manner. Machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) methods in particular, can account for such nonlinear relations between yield and its drivers. However, they typically lack transparency and interpretability, which in the context of yield forecasting is of great relevance. Here, we explore how to benefit from the increased predictive performance of DL methods without compromising the ability to interpret how the models achieve their results for an example of the wheat yield in the Indian Wheat Belt.We applied a convolutional neural network to multivariate time series of meteorological and satellite-derived vegetation variables at a daily resolution to estimate the wheat yield in the Indian Wheat Belt. Afterwards, the features and yield drivers learned by the model were visualized and analyzed with the use of regression activation maps. The learned features were primarily related to the length of the growing season, temperature, and light conditions during the growing season. Our analysis showed that high yields in 2012 were associated with low temperatures accompanied by sunny conditions during the growing period. The proposed methodology can be used for other crops and regions in order to facilitate application of DL models in agriculture. References:Wolanin A., Mateo-Garcı́a G., Camps-Valls G., Gómez-Chova L. ,Meroni, M., Duveiller, G., You, L., Guanter L. (2020) Estimating and Understanding Crop Yields with Explainable Deep Learning in the Indian Wheat Belt. Environmental Research Letters.

Forecasting crop yields is becoming increasingly important under the current context in which food security needs to be ensured despite the challenges brought by climate change, an expanding world population accompanied by rising incomes, increasing soil erosion, and decreasing water resources. Temperature, radiation, water availability and other environmental conditions influence crop growth, development, and final grain yield in a complex nonlinear manner. Machine learning (ML) techniques, and deep learning (DL) methods in particular, can account for such nonlinear relations between yield and its covariates. However, they typically lack transparency and interpretability, since the way the predictions are derived is not directly evident. Yet, in the context of yield forecasting, understanding which are the underlying factors behind both a predicted loss or gain is of great relevance. Here, we explore how to benefit from the increased predictive performance of DL methods while maintaining the ability to interpret how the models achieve their results. To do so, we applied a deep neural network to multivariate time series of vegetation and meteorological data to estimate the wheat yield in the Indian Wheat Belt. Then, we visualized and analyzed the features and yield drivers learned by the model with the use of regression activation maps. The DL model outperformed other tested models (ridge regression and random forest) and facilitated the interpretation of variables and processes that lead to yield variability. The learned features were mostly related to the length of the growing season, and temperature and light conditions during this time. For example, our results showed that high yields in 2012 were associated with low temperatures accompanied by sunny conditions during the growing period. The proposed methodology can be used for other crops and regions in order to facilitate application of DL models in agriculture.

Remote sensing studies of vegetation phenology increasingly benefit from freely available satellite imagery acquired with high temporal frequency at fine spatial resolution. Particularly for heterogeneous landscapes this is good news, given the drawback of medium-resolution sensors commonly used for phenology retrieval (e.g., MODIS) to properly represent the fine-scale spatial variability of vegetation types. The Sentinel-2 mission acquires spectral data globally at 10 to 60 m resolution every five days. To illustrate the mission's potential for studying vegetation phenology, we retrieved phenological parameters for the Dutch barrier island Schiermonnikoog for a full season of Sentinel-2A observations in 2016. Overlapping orbits resulted in two acquisitions per 10 days, similar to what is achieved globally since the launch of Sentinel-2B. For eight locations on the island's salt marsh we compared greenness chromatic coordinate (GCC) series derived from digital repeat RGB-cameras with vegetation index series derived from Sentinel-2 (NDVI and GCC). For each series, a double hyperbolic tangent model was fitted and thresholds were applied to the modelled data to estimate start-, peak-, and end-of-season (SOS/PS/EOS). Variability in Sentinel-2 derived SOS, when taken as the midpoint between minimum and peak NDVI, was well-explained by camera GCC-based SOS (R2 = 0.74, MSD = 8.0 days, RMSD = 13.0 days). However, EOS estimates from camera GCC series were on average almost two months before NDVI-based estimates. This could partially be explained by the observed exponential relationship between GCC and NDVI, as well as by the combined effect of viewing angle differences and the presence of non-photosynthetic elements in the vegetation canopy. A two-layer canopy radiative transfer model incorporating reduced chlorophyll levels in the upper layer provided a physically-based explanation of the viewing angle effect. Finally, we applied the phenology retrieval approach to NDVI series for all pixels of the island in order to map spatial patterns of phenology at fine resolution. Our results demonstrate the potential of the Sentinel-2 mission for providing spatially-detailed retrievals of phenology.

Vegetation indices derived from satellite image time series have been extensively used to estimate the timing of phenological events like season onset. Medium spatial resolution (≥250 m) satellite sensors with daily revisit capability are typically employed for this purpose. In recent years, phenology is being retrieved at higher resolution (≤30 m) in response to increasing availability of high-resolution satellite data. To overcome the reduced acquisition frequency of such data, previous attempts involved fusion between high- and medium-resolution data, or combinations of multi-year acquisitions in a single phenological reconstruction. The objectives of this study are to demonstrate that phenological parameters can now be retrieved from single-season high-resolution time series, and to compare these retrievals against those derived from multi-year high-resolution and single-season medium-resolution satellite data. The study focuses on the island of Schiermonnikoog, the Netherlands, which comprises a highly-dynamic saltmarsh, dune vegetation, and agricultural land. Combining NDVI series derived from atmospherically-corrected images from RapidEye (5 m-resolution) and the SPOT5 Take5 experiment (10m-resolution) acquired between March and August 2015, phenological parameters were estimated using a function fitting approach. We then compared results with phenology retrieved from four years of 30 m Landsat 8 OLI data, and single-year 100 m Proba-V and 250 m MODIS temporal composites of the same period. Retrieved phenological parameters from combined RapidEye/SPOT5 displayed spatially consistent results and a large spatial variability, providing complementary information to existing vegetation community maps. Retrievals that combined four years of Landsat observations into a single synthetic year were affected by the inclusion of years with warmer spring temperatures, whereas adjustment of the average phenology to 2015 observations was only feasible for a few pixels due to cloud cover around phenological transition dates. The Proba-V and MODIS phenology retrievals scaled poorly relative to their high-resolution equivalents, indicating that medium-resolution phenology retrievals need to be interpreted with care, particularly in landscapes with fine-scale land cover variability.

We analysed the performance and timeliness of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in anticipating deviations from mean seasonal vegetation productivity in the Sahel. Gridded rainfall estimates are used to compute the SPI for 1–6-month timescales, whereas the Z-score of the cumulative value of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation over the growing season (zCFAPAR) is used as a proxy of seasonal productivity. Results show that the strength of the link varies in space as a function of both the SPI timescale and the timing of the SPI calculation with respect to the vegetative season’s progress. For productivity forecasting, we propose an operational strategy to select per grid cell the SPI timescale and computation time with the highest correlation with zCFAPAR at different moments of the season. The linear relationship between SPI and zCFAPAR is significant for 32–66% of the study area, depending on the timing at which SPI is considered (at 0% and 75% of the seasonal progress, respectively). For these areas, the selected SPI explains on average about 40% of the variance of zCFAPAR and may thus assist in the earlier identification of agricultural drought.

Prosopis spp. is a fast and aggressive invader threatening many arid and semi-arid areas globally. The species is native to the American dry zones and was introduced in Somaliland for dune stabilization and fuel wood production in the 1970⿿s and 1980⿿s. Its deep rooting system is capable of tapping into the groundwater table thereby reducing its reliance on infrequent rainfalls and near-surface water. The competitive advantage of Prosopis is further fuelled by the hybridization of the many introduced subspecies that made the plant capable of adapting to the new environment and replacing endemic species. This study aimed to test the mapping accuracy achievable with Landsat 8 data acquired during the wet and the dry seasons within a Random Forest (RF) classifier, using both pixel- and object-based approaches. Maps are produced for the Hargeisa area (Somaliland), where reference data was collected during the dry season of 2015. Results were assessed through a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. In our study, the highest overall accuracy (74%) was achieved when applying a pixel-based classification using a combination of the wet and dry season Earth observation data. Object-based mapping were less reliable due to the limitations in spatial resolution of the Landsat data (15⿿30 m) and problems in finding an appropriate segmentation scale.

Satellites offer a privileged view on terrestrial ecosystems and a unique possibility to evaluate their status, their resilience and the reliability of the services they provide. In this study, we introduce two indicators for estimating the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems from the local to the global levels. We use the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to estimate annual vegetation primary production resilience. We use annual precipitation time series to estimate annual green water resource resilience. Resilience estimation is achieved through the annual production resilience indicator, originally developed in agricultural science, which is formally derived from the original ecological definition of resilience i.e., the largest stress that the system can absorb without losing its function. Interestingly, we find coherent relationships between annual green water resource resilience and vegetation primary production resilience over a wide range of world biomes, suggesting that green water resource resilience contributes to determining vegetation primary production resilience. Finally, we estimate the changes of green water resource resilience due to climate change using results from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) and discuss the potential consequences of global warming for ecosystem service reliability. Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Grizzetti, Bruna. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Meroni, Michele. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Scoccimarro, Enrico. No especifíca; Fil: Vrieling, Anton. No especifíca; Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia

Monitoring crop and rangeland conditions is highly relevant for early warning and response planning in food insecure areas of the world. Satellite remote sensing can obtain relevant and timely information in such areas where ground data are scattered, non-homogenous, or frequently unavailable. Rainfall estimates provide an outlook of the drivers of vegetation growth, whereas time series of satellite-based biophysical indicators at high temporal resolution provide key information about vegetation status in near real-time and over large areas. The new early warning decision support system ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) builds on the experience of the MARS crop monitoring activities for food insecure areas, that have started in the early 2000's and aims at providing timely information about possible crop production anomalies. The information made available on the website (https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/) directly supports multi-agency early warning initiatives such as for example the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning and provides inputs to more detailed food security assessments that are the basis for the annual Global Report on Food Crises. ASAP is a two-step analysis framework, with a first fully automated step classifying the first sub-national level administrative units into four agricultural production deficit warning categories. Warnings are based on rainfall and vegetation index anomalies computed over crop and rangeland areas and are updated every 10 days. They take into account the timing during the crop season at which they occur, using remote sensing derived phenology per-pixel. The second step involves the monthly analysis at country level by JRC crop monitoring experts of all the information available, including the automatic warnings, crop production and food security-tailored media analysis, high-resolution imagery (e.g. Landsat 8, Sentinel 1 and 2) processed in Google Earth Engine and ancillary maps, graphs and statistics derived from a set of indicators. Countries with potentially critical conditions are marked as minor or major hotspots and a global overview is provided together with short national level narratives., Highlights • Earth Observation based global monitoring of crop and rangeland conditions for food security analysis • Timely early warning thanks to frequent updates (10 days for climate anomalies, 30 days for agricultural hotspot analysis) • Public online webGIS with downloadable information • Country level agricultural production hotspot identification and short narratives for non-remote sensing experts