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Background: Polygenic scores (PGS) are becoming an increasingly popular approach to predict complex disease risk, although they also hold the potential to develop insight into the molecular profiles of patients with an elevated genetic predisposition to disease. Methods: We sought to construct an atlas of associations between 125 different PGS derived using results from genome-wide association studies and 249 circulating metabolites in up to 83,004 participants from the UK Biobank. Results: As an exemplar to demonstrate the value of this atlas, we conducted a hypothesis-free evaluation of all associations with glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), an inflammatory biomarker. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization, we find that the associations highlighted likely reflect the effect of risk factors, such as adiposity or liability towards smoking, on systemic inflammation as opposed to the converse direction. Moreover, we repeated all analyses in our atlas within age strata to investigate potential sources of collider bias, such as medication usage. This was exemplified by comparing associations between lipoprotein lipid profiles and the coronary artery disease PGS in the youngest and oldest age strata, which had differing proportions of individuals undergoing statin therapy. Lastly, we generated all PGS–metabolite associations stratified by sex and separately after excluding 13 established lipid-associated loci to further evaluate the robustness of findings. Conclusions: We envisage that the atlas of results constructed in our study will motivate future hypothesis generation and help prioritize and deprioritize circulating metabolic traits for in-depth investigations. All results can be visualized and downloaded at http://mrcieu.mrsoftware.org/metabolites_PRS_atlas. Funding: This work is supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation, and the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003679.].

Large-scale molecular profiling and genotyping provide a unique opportunity to systematically compare the genetically predicted effects of therapeutic targets on the human metabolome. We firstly constructed genetic risk scores for 8 drug targets on the basis that they primarily modify low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (HMGCR, PCKS9, and NPC1L1), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (CETP), or triglycerides (APOC3, ANGPTL3, ANGPTL4, and LPL). Conducting mendelian randomisation (MR) provided strong evidence of an effect of drug-based genetic scores on coronary artery disease (CAD) risk with the exception of ANGPTL3. We then systematically estimated the effects of each score on 249 metabolic traits derived using blood samples from an unprecedented sample size of up to 115,082 UK Biobank participants. Genetically predicted effects were generally consistent among drug targets, which were intended to modify the same lipoprotein lipid trait. For example, the linear fit for the MR estimates on all 249 metabolic traits for genetically predicted inhibition of LDL cholesterol lowering targets HMGCR and PCSK9 was r2 = 0.91. In contrast, comparisons between drug classes that were designed to modify discrete lipoprotein traits typically had very different effects on metabolic signatures (for instance, HMGCR versus each of the 4 triglyceride targets all had r2 < 0.02). Furthermore, we highlight this discrepancy for specific metabolic traits, for example, finding that LDL cholesterol lowering therapies typically had a weak effect on glycoprotein acetyls, a marker of inflammation, whereas triglyceride modifying therapies assessed provided evidence of a strong effect on lowering levels of this inflammatory biomarker. Our findings indicate that genetically predicted perturbations of these drug targets on the blood metabolome can drastically differ, despite largely consistent effects on risk of CAD, with potential implications for biomarkers in clinical development and measuring treatment response.

BackgroundObesity is observationally associated with altered risk of many female reproductive conditions. These include polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), abnormal uterine bleeding, endometriosis, infertility, and pregnancy-related disorders. However, the roles and mechanisms of obesity in the aetiology of reproductive disorders remain unclear. Thus, we aimed to estimate observational and genetically predicted causal associations between obesity, metabolic hormones, and female reproductive disorders.Methods and findingsLogistic regression, generalised additive models, and Mendelian randomisation (MR) (2-sample, non-linear, and multivariable) were applied to obesity and reproductive disease data on up to 257,193 women of European ancestry in UK Biobank and publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and WHR adjusted for BMI were observationally (odds ratios [ORs] = 1.02-1.87 per 1-SD increase in obesity trait) and genetically (ORs = 1.06-2.09) associated with uterine fibroids (UF), PCOS, heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB), and pre-eclampsia. Genetically predicted visceral adipose tissue (VAT) mass was associated with the development of HMB (OR [95% CI] per 1-kg increase in predicted VAT mass = 1.32 [1.06-1.64], P = 0.0130), PCOS (OR [95% CI] = 1.15 [1.08-1.23], P = 3.24 × 10-05), and pre-eclampsia (OR [95% CI] = 3.08 [1.98-4.79], P = 6.65 × 10-07). Increased waist circumference posed a higher genetic risk (ORs = 1.16-1.93) for the development of these disorders and UF than did increased hip circumference (ORs = 1.06-1.10). Leptin, fasting insulin, and insulin resistance each mediated between 20% and 50% of the total genetically predicted association of obesity with pre-eclampsia. Reproductive conditions clustered based on shared genetic components of their aetiological relationships with obesity. This study was limited in power by the low prevalence of female reproductive conditions among women in the UK Biobank, with little information on pre-diagnostic anthropometric traits, and by the susceptibility of MR estimates to genetic pleiotropy.ConclusionsWe found that common indices of overall and central obesity were associated with increased risks of reproductive disorders to heterogenous extents in a systematic, large-scale genetics-based analysis of the aetiological relationships between obesity and female reproductive conditions. Our results suggest the utility of exploring the mechanisms mediating the causal associations of overweight and obesity with gynaecological health to identify targets for disease prevention and treatment.

BackgroundThe potential benefits of gaining body muscle for cardiovascular disease (CVD) susceptibility, and how these compare with the potential harms of gaining body fat, are unknown. We compared associations of early life changes in body lean mass and handgrip strength versus body fat mass with atherogenic traits measured in young adulthood.Methods and findingsData were from 3,227 offspring of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (39% male; recruited in 1991-1992). Limb lean and total fat mass indices (kg/m2) were measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans performed at age 10, 13, 18, and 25 y (across clinics occurring from 2001-2003 to 2015-2017). Handgrip strength was measured at 12 and 25 y, expressed as maximum grip (kg or lb/in2) and relative grip (maximum grip/weight in kilograms). Linear regression models were used to examine associations of change in standardised measures of these exposures across different stages of body development with 228 cardiometabolic traits measured at age 25 y including blood pressure, fasting insulin, and metabolomics-derived apolipoprotein B lipids. SD-unit gain in limb lean mass index from 10 to 25 y was positively associated with atherogenic traits including very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) triglycerides. This pattern was limited to lean gain in legs, whereas lean gain in arms was inversely associated with traits including VLDL triglycerides, insulin, and glycoprotein acetyls, and was also positively associated with creatinine (a muscle product and positive control). Furthermore, this pattern for arm lean mass index was specific to SD-unit gains occurring between 13 and 18 y, e.g., -0.13 SD (95% CI -0.22, -0.04) for VLDL triglycerides. Changes in maximum and relative grip from 12 to 25 y were both positively associated with creatinine, but only change in relative grip was also inversely associated with atherogenic traits, e.g., -0.12 SD (95% CI -0.18, -0.06) for VLDL triglycerides per SD-unit gain. Change in fat mass index from 10 to 25 y was more strongly associated with atherogenic traits including VLDL triglycerides, at 0.45 SD (95% CI 0.39, 0.52); these estimates were directionally consistent across sub-periods, with larger effect sizes with more recent gains. Associations of lean, grip, and fat measures with traits were more pronounced among males. Study limitations include potential residual confounding of observational estimates, including by ectopic fat within muscle, and the absence of grip measures in adolescence for estimates of grip change over sub-periods.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that muscle strengthening, as indicated by grip strength gain, was weakly associated with lower atherogenic trait levels in young adulthood, at a smaller magnitude than unfavourable associations of fat mass gain. Associations of muscle mass gain with such traits appear to be smaller and limited to gains occurring in adolescence. These results suggest that body muscle is less robustly associated with markers of CVD susceptibility than body fat and may therefore be a lower-priority intervention target.

Summary: Background: Apolipoprotein B (apoB) is emerging as the crucial lipoprotein trait for the role of lipoprotein lipids in the aetiology of coronary heart disease. In this study, we evaluated the effects of genetically predicted apoB on outcomes in first-degree relatives. Methods: Data on lipoprotein lipids and disease outcomes in first-degree relatives were obtained from the UK Biobank study. We did a univariable mendelian randomisation analysis using a weighted genetic instrument for apoB. For outcomes with which apoB was associated at a false discovery rate (FDR) of less than 5%, multivariable mendelian randomisation analyses were done, including genetic instruments for LDL cholesterol and triglycerides. Associations between apoB and self-reported outcomes in first-degree relatives were characterised for 12 diseases (including heart disease, stroke, and hypertension) and parental vital status together with age at death. Estimates were inferred causal effects per 1 SD elevated lipoprotein trait (for apoB, 1 SD=0·24 g/L). Replication of estimates for lifespan and type 2 diabetes was done using conventional two-sample mendelian randomisation with summary estimates from genome-wide association study consortia. Findings: In univariable mendelian randomisation, genetically elevated apoB in participants was identified to lead to a shorter lifespan in parents (fathers: 0·89 years of life lost per 1 SD higher apoB in offspring, 95% CI 0·63–1·16, FDR-adjusted p=4·0 × 10−10; mothers: 0·48 years of life lost per 1 SD higher apoB in offspring, 0·25–0·71, FDR-adjusted p=1·7 × 10−4). The effects were strengthened to around 2 years of life lost in multivariable mendelian randomisation and were replicated in conventional two-sample mendelian randomisation (odds ratio [OR] of surviving to the 90th centile of lifespan: 0·38 per 1 SD higher apoB in offspring, 95% CI 0·22–0·65). Genetically elevated apoB caused higher risks of heart disease in all first-degree relatives and a higher risk of stroke in mothers. Findings in first-degree relatives were replicated in two-sample multivariable mendelian randomisation, which identified apoB to increase (OR 2·32 per 1 SD higher apoB, 95% CI 1·49–3·61) and LDL cholesterol to decrease (0·34 per 1 SD higher LDL cholesterol, 0·21–0·54) the risk of type 2 diabetes. Interpretation: Higher apoB shortens lifespan, increases risks of heart disease and stroke, and in multivariable analyses that account for LDL cholesterol, increases risk of diabetes. Funding: British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation.

This study investigated 12-year blood lipid trajectories and whether these trajectories are modified by smoking and lipid lowering treatment in older Russians. To do so, we analysed data on 9,218 Russian West-Siberian Caucasians aged 45-69 years at baseline participating in the international HAPIEE cohort study. Mixed-effect multilevel models were used to estimate individual level lipid trajectories across the baseline and two follow-up examinations (16,445 separate measurements over 12 years). In all age groups, we observed a reduction in serum total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C and non-HDL-C over time even after adjusting for sex, statin treatment, hypertension, diabetes, social factors and mortality (P 60 years at baseline). In smokers, TC, LDL-C, non-HDL-C and TG decreased less markedly than in non-smokers, while HDL-C decreased more rapidly while the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio increased. In subjects treated with lipid-lowering drugs, TC, LDL-C and non-HDL-C decreased more markedly and HDL-C less markedly than in untreated subjects while TG and LDL-C/HDL-C remained stable or increased in treatment naïve subjects. We conclude, that in this ageing population we observed marked changes in blood lipids over a 12 year follow up, with decreasing trajectories of TC, LDL-C and non-HDL-C and mixed trajectories of TG. The findings suggest that monitoring of age-related trajectories in blood lipids may improve prediction of CVD risk beyond single measurements.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000572.].

BackgroundCirculating lipoprotein lipids cause coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the precise way in which one or more lipoprotein lipid-related entities account for this relationship remains unclear. Using genetic instruments for lipoprotein lipid traits implemented through multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MR), we sought to compare their causal roles in the aetiology of CHD.Methods and findingsWe conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of circulating non-fasted lipoprotein lipid traits in the UK Biobank (UKBB) for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and apolipoprotein B to identify lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Using data from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D for CHD (consisting of 60,801 cases and 123,504 controls), we performed univariable and multivariable MR analyses. Similar GWAS and MR analyses were conducted for high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-I. The GWAS of lipids and apolipoproteins in the UKBB included between 393,193 and 441,016 individuals in whom the mean age was 56.9 y (range 39-73 y) and of whom 54.2% were women. The mean (standard deviation) lipid concentrations were LDL cholesterol 3.57 (0.87) mmol/L and HDL cholesterol 1.45 (0.38) mmol/L, and the median triglycerides was 1.50 (IQR = 1.11) mmol/L. The mean (standard deviation) values for apolipoproteins B and A-I were 1.03 (0.24) g/L and 1.54 (0.27) g/L, respectively. The GWAS identified multiple independent SNPs associated at P < 5 × 10-8 for LDL cholesterol (220), apolipoprotein B (n = 255), triglycerides (440), HDL cholesterol (534), and apolipoprotein A-I (440). Between 56%-93% of SNPs identified for each lipid trait had not been previously reported in large-scale GWASs. Almost half (46%) of these SNPs were associated at P < 5 × 10-8 with more than one lipid-related trait. Assessed individually using MR, LDL cholesterol (odds ratio [OR] 1.66 per 1-standard-deviation-higher trait; 95% CI: 1.49-1.86; P < 0.001), triglycerides (OR 1.34; 95% CI: 1.25-1.44; P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein B (OR 1.73; 95% CI: 1.56-1.91; P < 0.001) had effect estimates consistent with a higher risk of CHD. In multivariable MR, only apolipoprotein B (OR 1.92; 95% CI: 1.31-2.81; P < 0.001) retained a robust effect, with the estimate for LDL cholesterol (OR 0.85; 95% CI: 0.57-1.27; P = 0.44) reversing and that of triglycerides (OR 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.23; P = 0.01) becoming weaker. Individual MR analyses showed a 1-standard-deviation-higher HDL cholesterol (OR 0.80; 95% CI: 0.75-0.86; P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein A-I (OR 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.89; P < 0.001) to lower the risk of CHD, but these effect estimates attenuated substantially to the null on accounting for apolipoprotein B. A limitation is that, owing to the nature of lipoprotein metabolism, measures related to the composition of lipoprotein particles are highly correlated, creating a challenge in making exclusive interpretations on causation of individual components.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that apolipoprotein B is the predominant trait that accounts for the aetiological relationship of lipoprotein lipids with risk of CHD.

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibition reduces vascular event risk, but confusion surrounds its effects on low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Here, we clarify associations of genetic inhibition of CETP on detailed lipoprotein measures and compare those to genetic inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR). We used an allele associated with lower CETP expression (rs247617) to mimic CETP inhibition and an allele associated with lower HMGCR expression (rs12916) to mimic the well-known effects of statins for comparison. The study consists of 65,427 participants of European ancestries with detailed lipoprotein subclass profiling from nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Genetic associations were scaled to 10% reduction in relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We also examined observational associations of the lipoprotein subclass measures with risk of incident CHD in 3 population-based cohorts totalling 616 incident cases and 13,564 controls during 8-year follow-up. Genetic inhibition of CETP and HMGCR resulted in near-identical associations with LDL cholesterol concentration estimated by the Friedewald equation. Inhibition of HMGCR had relatively consistent associations on lower cholesterol concentrations across all apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins. In contrast, the associations of the inhibition of CETP were stronger on lower remnant and very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol, but there were no associations on cholesterol concentrations in LDL defined by particle size (diameter 18-26 nm) (-0.02 SD LDL defined by particle size; 95% CI: -0.10 to 0.05 for CETP versus -0.24 SD, 95% CI -0.30 to -0.18 for HMGCR). Inhibition of CETP was strongly associated with lower proportion of triglycerides in all high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles. In observational analyses, a higher triglyceride composition within HDL subclasses was associated with higher risk of CHD, independently of total cholesterol and triglycerides (strongest hazard ratio per 1 SD higher triglyceride composition in very large HDL 1.35; 95% CI: 1.18-1.54). In conclusion, CETP inhibition does not appear to affect size-specific LDL cholesterol but is likely to lower CHD risk by lowering concentrations of other atherogenic, apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins (such as remnant and VLDLs). Inhibition of CETP also lowers triglyceride composition in HDL particles, a phenomenon reflecting combined effects of circulating HDL, triglycerides, and apolipoprotein B-containing particles and is associated with a lower CHD risk in observational analyses. Our results reveal that conventional composite lipid assays may mask heterogeneous effects of emerging lipid-altering therapies.

Obesity traits are causally implicated with risk of cardiometabolic diseases. It remains unclear whether there are similar causal effects of obesity traits on other non-communicable diseases. Also, it is largely unexplored whether there are any sex-specific differences in the causal effects of obesity traits on cardiometabolic diseases and other leading causes of death. We constructed sex-specific genetic risk scores (GRS) for three obesity traits; body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and WHR adjusted for BMI, including 565, 324, and 337 genetic variants, respectively. These GRSs were then used as instrumental variables to assess associations between the obesity traits and leading causes of mortality in the UK Biobank using Mendelian randomization. We also investigated associations with potential mediators, including smoking, glycemic and blood pressure traits. Sex-differences were subsequently assessed by Cochran's Q-test (Phet). A Mendelian randomization analysis of 228,466 women and 195,041 men showed that obesity causes coronary artery disease, stroke (particularly ischemic), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, type 2 and 1 diabetes mellitus, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, chronic liver disease, and acute and chronic renal failure. Higher BMI led to higher risk of type 2 diabetes in women than in men (Phet = 1.4×10-5). Waist-hip-ratio led to a higher risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Phet = 3.7×10-6) and higher risk of chronic renal failure (Phet = 1.0×10-4) in men than women. Obesity traits have an etiological role in the majority of the leading global causes of death. Sex differences exist in the effects of obesity traits on risk of type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and renal failure, which may have downstream implications for public health.

BackgroundLittle prospective evidence exists about risk factors and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in China. We examined the associations of certain metabolic and lifestyle factors with risk of acute pancreatitis in Chinese adults.Methods and findingsThe prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited 512,891 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 5 urban and 5 rural areas between 25 June 2004 and 15 July 2008. During 9.2 years of follow-up (to 1 January 2015), 1,079 cases of acute pancreatitis were recorded. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for acute pancreatitis associated with various metabolic and lifestyle factors among all or male (for smoking and alcohol drinking) participants. Overall, the mean waist circumference (WC) was 82.1 cm (SD 9.8) cm in men and 79.0 cm (SD 9.5) cm in women, 6% had diabetes, and 6% had gallbladder disease at baseline. WC was positively associated with risk of acute pancreatitis, with an adjusted HR of 1.35 (95% CI 1.27-1.43; p < 0.001) per 1-SD-higher WC. Individuals with diabetes or gallbladder disease had HRs of 1.34 (1.07-1.69; p = 0.01) and 2.42 (2.03-2.88; p < 0.001), respectively. Physical activity was inversely associated with risk of acute pancreatitis, with each 4 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) hours per day (MET-h/day) higher physical activity associated with an adjusted HR of 0.95 (0.91-0.99; p = 0.03). Compared with those without any metabolic risk factors (i.e., obesity, diabetes, gallbladder disease, and physical inactivity), the HRs of acute pancreatitis for those with 1, 2, or ≥3 risk factors were 1.61 (1.47-1.76), 2.36 (2.01-2.78), and 3.41 (2.46-4.72), respectively (p < 0.001). Among men, heavy alcohol drinkers (≥420 g/week) had an HR of 1.52 (1.11-2.09; p = 0.04, compared with abstainers), and current regular smokers had an HR of 1.45 (1.28-1.64; p = 0.02, compared with never smokers). Following a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis, there were higher risks of pancreatic cancer (HR = 8.26 [3.42-19.98]; p < 0.001; 13 pancreatic cancer cases) and death (1.53 [1.17-2.01]; p = 0.002; 89 deaths). Other diseases of the pancreas had similar risk factor profiles and prognosis to acute pancreatitis. The main study limitations are ascertainment of pancreatitis using hospital records and residual confounding.ConclusionsIn this relatively lean Chinese population, several modifiable metabolic and lifestyle factors were associated with higher risks of acute pancreatitis, and individuals with acute pancreatitis had higher risks of pancreatic cancer and death.

BackgroundEarlier puberty is widely linked with future obesity and cardiometabolic disease. We examined whether age at puberty onset likely influences adiposity and cardiometabolic traits independent of childhood adiposity.Methods and findingsOne-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses were conducted on up to 3,611 white-European female and male offspring from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort recruited at birth via mothers between 1 April 1991 and 31 December 1992. Time-sensitive exposures were age at menarche and age at voice breaking. Outcomes measured at age 18 y were body mass index (BMI), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-based fat and lean mass indices, blood pressure, and 230 cardiometabolic traits derived from targeted metabolomics (150 concentrations plus 80 ratios from nuclear magnetic resonance [NMR] spectroscopy covering lipoprotein subclasses of cholesterol and triglycerides, amino acids, inflammatory glycoproteins, and others). Adjustment was made for pre-pubertal BMI measured at age 8 y. For negative control MR analyses, BMI and cardiometabolic trait measures taken at age 8 y (before puberty, and which therefore cannot be an outcome of puberty itself) were used. For replication analyses, 2-sample MR was conducted using summary genome-wide association study data on up to 322,154 adults for post-pubertal BMI, 24,925 adults for post-pubertal NMR cardiometabolic traits, and 13,848 children for pre-pubertal obesity (negative control). Like observational estimates, 1-sample MR estimates in ALSPAC using 351 polymorphisms for age at menarche (explaining 10.6% of variance) among 2,053 females suggested that later age at menarche (per year) was associated with -1.38 kg/m2 of BMI at age 18 y (or -0.34 SD units, 95% CI -0.46, -0.23; P = 9.77 × 10-09). This coefficient attenuated 10-fold upon adjustment for BMI at age 8 y, to -0.12 kg/m2 (or -0.03 SDs, 95% CI -0.13, 0.07; P = 0.55). Associations with blood pressure were similar, but associations across other traits were small and inconsistent. In negative control MR analyses, later age at menarche was associated with -0.77 kg/m2 of pre-pubertal BMI measured at age 8 y (or -0.39 SDs, 95% CI -0.50, -0.29; P = 6.28 × 10-13), indicating that variants influencing menarche also influence BMI before menarche. Cardiometabolic trait associations were weaker and less consistent among males and both sexes combined. Higher BMI at age 8 y (per 1 kg/m2 using 95 polymorphisms for BMI explaining 3.4% of variance) was associated with earlier menarche among 2,648 females (by -0.26 y, 95% CI -0.37, -0.16; P = 1.16 × 10-06), likewise among males and both sexes combined. In 2-sample MR analyses using 234 polymorphisms and inverse variance weighted (IVW) regression, each year later age at menarche was associated with -0.81 kg/m2 of adult BMI (or -0.17 SD units, 95% CI -0.21, -0.12; P = 4.00 × 10-15). Associations were weaker with cardiometabolic traits. Using 202 polymorphisms, later menarche was associated with lower odds of childhood obesity (IVW-based odds ratio = 0.52 per year later, 95% CI 0.48, 0.57; P = 6.64 × 10-15). Study limitations include modest sample sizes for 1-sample MR, lack of inference to non-white-European populations, potential selection bias through modest completion rates of puberty questionnaires, and likely disproportionate measurement error of exposures by sex. The cardiometabolic traits examined were heavily lipid-focused and did not include hormone-related traits such as insulin and insulin-like growth factors.ConclusionsOur results suggest that puberty timing has a small influence on adiposity and cardiometabolic traits and that preventive interventions should instead focus on reducing childhood adiposity.

Summary: Background: China has high stroke rates despite the population being relatively lean. Uncertainty persists about the relevance of adiposity to risk of stroke types. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with incidence of stroke types and effect mediation by blood pressure in Chinese men and women. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults aged 30–79 years from ten areas (five urban and five rural) during 2004–08. During a median 9 years (IQR 8–10) of follow-up, 32 448 strokes (about 90% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among 489 301 participants without previous cardiovascular disease. Cox regression analysis was used to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic stroke (n=25 210) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=5380) associated with adiposity. Findings: Mean baseline body-mass index (BMI) was 23·6 kg/m2 (SD 3·2), and 331 723 (67·8%) participants had a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (mean 17·1 kg/m2 [SD 0·9] to 31·7 kg/m2 [2·0]), each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 8·3 mm Hg (SE 0·04) higher systolic blood pressure. BMI was positively associated with ischaemic stroke, with an HR of 1·30 (95% CI 1·28–1·33 per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI), which was generally consistent with that predicted by equivalent differences in systolic blood pressure (1·25 [1·24–1·26]). The HR for intracerebral haemorrhage (1·11 [1·07–1·16] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI) was less extreme, and much weaker than that predicted by the corresponding difference in systolic blood pressure (1·48 [1·46–1·50]). Other adiposity measures showed similar associations with stroke types. After adjustment for usual systolic blood pressure, the positive associations with ischaemic stroke were attenuated (1·05 [1·03–1·07] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI); for intracerebral haemorrhage, they were reversed (0·73 [0·70–0·77]). High adiposity (BMI >23 kg/m2) accounted for 14·7% of total stroke (16·5% of ischaemic stroke and 6·7% of intracerebral haemorrhage). Interpretation: In Chinese adults, adiposity was strongly positively associated with ischaemic stroke, chiefly through its effect on blood pressure. For intracerebral haemorrhage, leanness, either per se or through some other factor (or factors), might increase risk, offsetting the protective effects of lower blood pressure. Funding: UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

BackgroundObservational studies have reported that higher plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations are associated with lower risks of diabetes, but it is unclear if these associations are causal. The aim of this study was to test the relevance of 25(OH)D for type 2 diabetes using genetically instrumented differences in plasma 25(OH)D concentrations.Methods and findingsData were available on four 25(OH)D single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 82,464), plasma 25(OH)D concentrations (n = 13,565), and cases with diabetes (n = 5,565) in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). The effects on risk of diabetes were assessed by a genetic score using two 25(OH)D synthesis SNPs (DHCR7-rs12785878 and CYP2R1-rs10741657), with and without the addition of SNPs affecting the transport (GC/DBP-rs2282679) and catabolism (CYP24A1-rs6013897) of 25(OH)D. The CKB results were combined in a meta-analysis of 10 studies for the 2 synthesis SNPs (n = 58,312 cases) and 7 studies for all 4 SNPs (n = 32,796 cases). Mean (SD) 25(OH)D concentration was 62 (20) nmol/l in CKB, and the per allele effects of genetic scores on 25(OH)D were 2.87 (SE 0.39) for the synthesis SNPs and 3.54 (SE 0.32) for all SNPs. A 25-nmol/l higher biochemically measured 25(OH)D was associated with a 9% (95% CI: 0%-18%) lower risk of diabetes in CKB. In a meta-analysis of all studies, a 25-nmol/l higher genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a 14% (95% CI: 3%-23%) lower risk of diabetes (p = 0.01) using the 2 synthesis SNPs. An equivalent difference in 25(OH)D using a genetic score with 4 SNPs was not significantly associated with diabetes (odds ratio 8%, 95% CI: -1% to 16%, lower risk, p = 0.07), but had some evidence of pleiotropy. A limitation of the meta-analysis was the access only to study level rather than individual level data.ConclusionsThe concordant risks of diabetes for biochemically measured and genetically instrumented differences in 25(OH)D using synthesis SNPs provide evidence for a causal effect of higher 25(OH)D for prevention of diabetes.

To evaluate evidence on the association between CYP2D6 genotype and tamoxifen response through.Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective, cross-sectional and case-control studies published to 2012. For each study, relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were extracted and pooled with a fixed and random effects model. Heterogeneity, publication bias, subgroup, and meta-regression analyses were performed.PubMed (inception-2012) and EMBASE (inception-2012).Criteria for inclusion were studies reporting breast cancer outcomes in patients treated with tamoxifen and genotyped for polymorphisms in the CYP2D6 gene.Twenty-five studies of 13,629 individuals were identified, of which 22 investigated the association of CYP2D6 genotype with outcomes in breast cancer women all receiving tamoxifen treatment ("treatment-only" design). Three randomized trials evaluated the effect of CYP2D6 genotype on tamoxifen response ("effect modification" design). In analysis of treatment-only studies, the relative risk (RR) of all-cause mortality (>307 events in 4,936 patients) for carriers of a CYP2D6 reduced function allele was 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94 to 1.31) compared to individuals with normal/increased function CYP2D6 alleles. When we investigated a composite outcome including all-cause mortality and surrogate endpoints for overall survival (>307 events in 6,721 patients), carriers of a CYP2D6 reduced function allele had a RR of 1.27 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.45). From two randomized trials that permitted effect-modification analysis, one had only 154 patients and showed evidence of effect modification of tamoxifen by CYP2D6 genotype for distant recurrence but was directionally opposite to that predicted, whereas a larger trial of 2,537 patients failed to show evidence of effect modification for breast cancer-free interval (P values for interaction 0.02 and 0.44, respectively).Based on these findings, there is insufficient evidence to recommend CYP2D6 genotyping to guide tamoxifen treatment.

Substantial advances have been made in identifying common genetic variants influencing cardiometabolic traits and disease outcomes through genome wide association studies. Nevertheless, gaps in knowledge remain and new questions have arisen regarding the population relevance, mechanisms, and applications for healthcare. Using a new high-resolution custom single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Metabochip) incorporating dense coverage of genomic regions linked to cardiometabolic disease, the University College-London School-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) consortium of highly-phenotyped population-based prospective studies, aims to: (1) fine map functionally relevant SNPs; (2) precisely estimate individual absolute and population attributable risks based on individual SNPs and their combination; (3) investigate mechanisms leading to altered risk factor profiles and CVD events; and (4) use Mendelian randomisation to undertake studies of the causal role in CVD of a range of cardiovascular biomarkers to inform public health policy and help develop new preventative therapies.

Within the general population, levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are positively associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether CRP is causally implicated in atherogenesis or is the results of atherosclerosis is disputed. A role of CRP to protect endothelium-derived nitric oxide (EDNO) has been suggested. We examined the association of CRP with EDNO-dependent vasomotor function and subclinical measures of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis in patients with raised CRP resulting from rheumatoid arthritis (RA).Patients with RA (n = 59) and healthy control subjects (n = 123), underwent measures of high sensitivity CRP, flow-mediated dilation (FMD, dependent on EDNO), intima-media thickness (IMT, a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis) and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV, a measure of arteriosclerosis). IMT and PWV were elevated in patients with RA compared to controls but FMD was similar in the two groups. In patients with RA, IMT and PWV were not correlated with CRP but FMD was positively independently correlated with CRP (P

Studies of the genetic basis of drug response could help clarify mechanisms of drug action/metabolism, and facilitate development of genotype-based predictive tests of efficacy or toxicity (pharmacogenetics).We conducted a systematic review and field synopsis of pharmacogenetic studies to quantify the scope and quality of available evidence in this field in order to inform future research.Original research articles were identified in Medline, reference lists from 24 meta-analyses/systematic reviews/review articles and U.S. Food and Drug Administration website of approved pharmacogenetic tests. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTION CRITERIA: We included any study in which either intended or adverse response to drug therapy was examined in relation to genetic variation in the germline or cancer cells in humans.Study characteristics and data reported in abstracts were recorded. We further analysed full text from a random 10% subset of articles spanning the different subclasses of study.From 102,264 Medline hits and 1,641 articles from other sources, we identified 1,668 primary research articles (1987 to 2007, inclusive). A high proportion of remaining articles were reviews/commentaries (ratio of reviews to primary research approximately 25 ratio 1). The majority of studies (81.8%) were set in Europe and North America focussing on cancer, cardiovascular disease and neurology/psychiatry. There was predominantly a candidate gene approach using common alleles, which despite small sample sizes (median 93 [IQR 40-222]) with no trend to an increase over time, generated a high proportion (74.5%) of nominally significant (por=4 studies, only 31 meta-analyses were identified. The majority (69.4%) of end-points were continuous and likely surrogate rather than hard (binary) clinical end-points.The high expectation but limited translation of pharmacogenetic research thus far may be explained by the preponderance of reviews over primary research, small sample sizes, a mainly candidate gene approach, surrogate markers, an excess of nominally positive to truly positive associations and paucity of meta-analyses. Recommendations based on these findings should inform future study design to help realise the goal of personalised medicines. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not Registered.

Summary: Background: Metformin shows beneficial effects on cardiometabolic health in diabetic individuals. However, the beneficial effects in the general population, especially in non-diabetic individuals are unclear. We aim to estimate the effects of perturbation of seven metformin targets on cardiometabolic health using Mendelian randomization (MR). Methods: Genetic variants close to metformin-targeted genes associated with expression of the corresponding genes and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level were used to proxy therapeutic effects of seven metformin-related drug targets. Eight cardiometabolic phenotypes under metformin trials were selected as outcomes (average N = 466,947). MR estimates representing the weighted average effects of the seven effects of metformin targets on the eight outcomes were generated. One-sample MR was applied to estimate the averaged and target-specific effects in 338,425 non-diabetic individuals in UK Biobank. Findings: Genetically proxied averaged effects of five metformin targets, equivalent to a 0.62% reduction of HbA1c level, was associated with 37.8% lower risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) (odds ratio [OR] = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.46–0.84), lower levels of body mass index (BMI) (β = −0.22, 95% CI = −0.35 to −0.09), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (β = −0.19, 95% CI = −0.28 to −0.09) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels (β = −0.29, 95% CI = −0.39 to −0.19). One-sample MR suggested that the seven metformin targets showed averaged and target-specific beneficial effects on BMI, SBP and DBP in non-diabetic individuals. Interpretation: This study showed that perturbation of seven metformin targets has beneficial effects on BMI and blood pressure in non-diabetic individuals. Clinical trials are needed to investigate whether similar effects can be achieved with metformin medications. Funding: Funding information is provided in the Acknowledgements.

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into ten sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), extensions and additional analyses, data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 24 months.

Abstract Background Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.

Raheem, Sliz et al. study the serum metabolome and an imaging-based measure of visceral fat in adults and adolescents. The authors find that, independently of BMI, visceral fat quantity is associated with a metabolomic profile similar to those predictive of type 2 diabetes and myocardial infarction.

Summary: Background: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary artery disease (CAD) both have known genetic determinants, but the mechanisms through which their associated genetic variants lead to disease onset remain poorly understood. Methods: We used large-scale metabolomics data in a two-sample reverse Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to estimate effects of genetic liability to T2D and CAD on 249 circulating metabolites in the UK Biobank (N = 118,466). We examined the potential for medication use to distort effect estimates by conducting age-stratified metabolite analyses. Findings: Using inverse variance weighted (IVW) models, higher genetic liability to T2D was estimated to decrease high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (e.g., HDL-C: −0.05 SD; 95% CI −0.07 to −0.03, per doubling of liability), whilst increasing all triglyceride groups and branched chain amino acids (BCAAs). IVW estimates for CAD liability suggested an effect on reducing HDL-C as well as raising very-low density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) and LDL-C. In pleiotropy-robust models, T2D liability was still estimated to increase BCAAs, but several estimates for higher CAD liability reversed and supported decreased LDL-C and apolipoprotein-B. Estimated effects of CAD liability differed substantially by age for non-HDL-C traits, with higher CAD liability lowering LDL-C only at older ages when statin use was common. Interpretation: Overall, our results support largely distinct metabolic features of genetic liability to T2D and CAD, illustrating both challenges and opportunities for preventing these commonly co-occurring diseases. Funding: Wellcome Trust [218495/Z/19/Z], UK MRC [MC_UU_00011/1; MC_UU_00011/4], the University of Bristol, Diabetes UK [17/0005587], World Cancer Research Fund [IIG_2019_2009].

Background Peripheral artery disease (PAD) and coronary artery disease (CAD) represent atherosclerosis in different vascular beds. We used detailed metabolic biomarker profiling to identify common and discordant biomarkers and clarify pathophysiological differences for these vascular diseases. Methods and Results We used 5 prospective cohorts from Finnish population (FINRISK 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012, and Health 2000; n=31 657; median follow‐up time of 14 years) to estimate associations between >200 metabolic biomarkers and incident PAD and CAD. Metabolic biomarkers were measured with nuclear magnetic resonance, and disease events were obtained from nationwide hospital records. During the follow‐up, 498 incident PAD and 2073 incident CAD events occurred. In age‐ and sex‐adjusted Cox models, apolipoproteins and cholesterol measures were robustly associated with incident CAD (eg, hazard ratio [HR] per SD for higher apolipoprotein B/A‐1 ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.25–1.36), but not with incident PAD (HR per SD for higher apolipoprotein B/A‐1 ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.95–1.14; Pheterogeneity0.05). Lower proportion of polyunsaturated fatty acids relative to total fatty acids, and higher concentrations of monounsaturated fatty acids, glycolysis‐related metabolites, and inflammatory protein markers were strongly associated with incident PAD, and many of these associations were stronger for PAD than for CAD (Pheterogeneity