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Mass public shootings in the United States have increased in number and severity in recent years, and there has been a corresponding rise in media reporting of such incidents. Does media coverage of these events lead to a short-term increase in the probability of additional shootings? James Alan Fox, Nathan E. Sanders, Emma E. Fridel, Grant Duwe and Michael Rocque investigate

Scholars have begun to use maturation as a framework for understanding why crime declines (e.g., desistance) after adolescence, but have largely not used the concept to understand antisocial behavior over the entire life-course. The Integrated Maturation Theory (IMT) brings this work together to demonstrate that as individuals develop into adulthood, they become less likely to engage in crime due to environmental and individual factors. This article demonstrates how IMT is also useful in explaining antisocial behavior in childhood and adolescence. Utilizing the five domains of maturation within IMT (social role, civic, psychosocial, identity, and neurocognitive), the analysis shows how this perspective helps organize information on why individuals engage in crime and delinquency early in the life course in a more holistic manner, transforming the theory from a desistance from crime to a life-course perspective. As such, the theory helps organize information about risk factors for delinquency and crime throughout life, with clear implications for crime prevention and intervention.

This study examined the characteristics of mass public shootings from 2000 through 2019 that impacted the extent of news coverage. A negative binomial regression predicting AP story counts indicated substantially greater coverage of shootings with a high number of casualties; that target government facilities, schools, or houses of worship; that are perpetrated by younger assailants, particularly with indications of mental illness; that involve terrorism or hate-motivation; that end in the assailant’s arrest rather than death; and, to a lesser extent, that include larger shares of victims who are White, women, children, and strangers. Overall, the disproportionate coverage contributes to distorted perceptions of risk and reinforces inaccurate stereotypes about these crimes.

Previous studies have yielded widely divergent conclusions about the percentage of all mass public shootings globally that take place in the US, ranging from a low of 3% to a high of 36%. Because of documented underreporting of lower-severity attacks involving fewer than 10 victim fatalities in US cases in these studies, it is reasonable to assume that this underreporting issue also applies to their measurement of mass public shootings outside the US. To estimate the total number of mass public shootings worldwide, we use multiple assumptions and modeling approaches, including a hierarchical Bayesian model. Our estimates show the US accounted for anywhere between 16% and 26% of the world’s mass public shootings during the 1976 to 2012 period. These estimates suggest the US share of the total is between four and six times higher than its 4% share of the world’s population.

Using multiple performance metrics, this study externally validates the Minnesota Screening Tool Assessing Recidivism Risk (MnSTARR) among a sample of 3,985 inmates released from Minnesota prisons ...

Scholarship on mass public shootings has increased in recent years as comprehensive datasets have become more available. As a result, much is known about the contextual and offender related characteristics of such attacks. However, less research has been conducted on attacks that were planned but ultimately did not occur. Understanding how mass public shootings may be thwarted or averted is important for both policy and theoretical reasons. In this paper, we describe a new dataset of averted mass public shooting threats (N = 194) from 2000–2019 and compare them to mass public shootings that were completed during this time (N = 97). Several noteworthy findings emerged, including that nearly half of the averted cases were reported by a friend or acquaintance, most targeted a specific location or group, and averted cases were more likely to involve school targets and co-offenders. Implications are discussed.

Mass public shootings have generated significant levels of fear in the recent years, with many observers criticizing the media for fostering a moral panic, if not an actual rise in the frequency of such attacks. Scholarly research suggests that the media can potentially impact the prevalence of mass shootings in two respects: (i) some individuals may be inspired to mimic the actions of highly publicized offenders; and (ii) a more general contagion process may manifest as a temporary increase in the likelihood of shootings associated with a triggering event. In this study of mass shootings since 2000, we focus on short-term contagion, rather than imitation that can traverse years. Specifically, after highlighting the sequencing of news coverage prior and subsequent to mass shootings, we apply multivariate point process models to disentangle the correlated incidence of mass public shootings and news coverage of such events. The findings suggest that mass public shootings have a strong effect on the level of news reporting, but that news reporting on the topic has little impact, at least in the relative short-term, on the subsequent prevalence of mass shootings. Finally, the results appear to rule out the presence of strong self-excitation of mass shootings, placing clear limits on generalized short-term contagion effects. Supplementary files for this article are available online.

Adolescents are at a relatively high risk of victimization. Within criminology, victimization has been largely attributed to risky behaviors and low self-control. Yet, these factors explain only a modest amount of victimization, suggesting that other theoretical predictors may offer additional insight. One factor that may predict victimization, as well as decreasing victimization risk after adolescence, is psychosocial maturation. Using data from the longitudinal Pathways to Desistance study, this study tested the association between psychosocial maturation and victimization. The analytic sample for this study (1087 individuals; 5681 yearly observations) included participants under 18 years at study recruitment. On average, each participant contributed 6 years of data. The victimization measure captured different types of threats and assaults (including rape and gunshot). Results showed 978 (17.2%) observations during which participants reported victimization. On average, psychosocial maturation increased with age while victimization risk decreased. Crude and adjusted models of the between-individual effect showed that a one standard deviation increase in psychosocial maturation was associated with 39% and 20% lower odds of victimization, respectively. Crude and adjusted models of the within-individual effect showed that a one standard deviation increase in psychosocial maturation was associated with 22% and 17% lower odds of victimization, respectively. Psychosocial maturation appears to be a relevant predictor of victimization and aids in our understanding of victimization risk throughout adolescence and early adulthood.

Objective In this study, we analyzed the relationship between state firearm laws and the incidence and severity (i.e., number of victims) of mass public shootings in the United States during the period 1976-2018. Hypotheses We hypothesized that states requiring permits to purchase firearms would have a lower incidence of mass public shootings than states not requiring permits. We also hypothesized that states banning large-capacity ammunition magazines would experience a lower number of victims in mass public shootings that did occur than states without bans. Method We developed a panel of annual, state-specific data on firearm laws and mass public shooting events and victim counts. We used a generalized estimating equations logistic regression to examine the relationship between eight state firearm laws and the likelihood of a mass public shooting. We then used a zero-inflated negative binomial model to assess the relationship between these laws and the number of fatalities and nonfatal injuries in these incidents. Results State laws requiring a permit to purchase a firearm were associated with 60% lower odds of a mass public shooting occurring (95% confidence interval [CI: -32%, -76%]). Large-capacity magazine bans were associated with 38% fewer fatalities (95% CI [-12%, -57%]) and 77% fewer nonfatal injuries (95% CI [-43%, -91%]) when a mass shooting occurred. Conclusion Laws requiring permits to purchase a gun are associated with a lower incidence of mass public shootings, and bans on large capacity magazines are associated with fewer fatalities and nonfatal injuries when such events do occur. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Researchers have long known that self-control, or impulse control, is important for a variety of life outcomes, including health, education, and behavior. In criminology, the most popular perspective on self-control argues that it is a multidimensional trait that is relatively stable after about age 8. Some work, however, has shown that in fact, self-control may not be as stable as originally thought. This article examines the evidence on interventions seeking to enhance self-control and subsequently to reduce delinquent or criminal behavior. The evidence is growing but still in need of development. Implications for future research and practice are discussed in the conclusion.

We test two major hypotheses in this article: (a) macrolevels of school disorganization and individual levels of low self-control will be directly, and positively, linked to victimization and (bi) low self-control will have the largest impact on exposure to victimization (ETV) when it interacts with negative environments consistent with a social enhancement perspective, or (bii) low self-control will have a weaker impact on ETV when it interacts with negative environments consistent with saturation or social push models. The data for the current study were collected as part of the second International Self-Report Delinquency Study (ISRD-II). A total of 49,685 individuals from 30 countries are nested within 1,427 schools. We use multilevel generalized linear regression models with violent victimization (robbery and assault) regressed on demographic, family, school, and neighborhood variables. Multiplicative interaction terms are included in separate models to examine key moderation effects consistent with expectations drawn from the victimization literature. Analyses reveal that low self-control and perceptions of school disorganization are both associated with an increase in the odds of experiencing victimization. Interactions between low self-control and school disorganization are also found to be consistent with saturation/social push models. Our regulation approach offers a foundation for theorizing about ETV and provides a testable model for future research. However, elements of the regulation model are in need of further refinement and testing before the perspective can be moved toward a broader theory of victimization.

Background The school-to-prison pipeline is a relatively recent phenomenon identified by researchers as a link between negative school outcomes, such as discipline, and involvement in the justice system. Purpose To critically examine the school-to-prison pipeline, focusing on race and discipline, as an extension of the “risk society” that has emerged in the last twenty to thirty years. Research, theory, and remaining puzzles with respect to the school-to-prison pipeline are examined. Results Changes in education and penal policy have converged to increase the chances that students who do not succeed in school become enmeshed in the criminal justice system. The causal link between the two systems is less clear, but a focus on risk is present in both arenas. However, disparities—particularly racial disparities, much like those found in the criminal justice system—persist in school discipline that have yet to be adequately explained. Conclusions Further research is needed to understand and explain the relationship between school and penal policies, educational outcomes and involvement with the criminal justice system. Irrespective of whether the link is causal, the disparities that exist and increasing numbers of those impacted by exclusionary discipline coupled with negative educational outcomes suggest a new approach should be explored.

A long line of research has uncovered a link between depression and delinquency. However, much of this research has been unable to disentangle the temporal ordering of the depression and crime relationship. In addition, few studies have examined potential mediating relationships between depression and crime, including, for example, theoretical variables such as individual self-control. To address these gaps, we examined depression symptoms as a risk factor for both violent and income-related offenses in a longitudinal framework controlling for several potential confounders using the Pathways to Desistance study that includes information on a unique sample of serious adolescent offenders ( N = 1,354). Our findings reveal that depression is inconsistently related to crime in cross-sectional models, but is a risk factor for both aggressive and income-related offenses in a longitudinal framework and that depression has an independent effect on delinquency that is not mediated by self-control.

When sex offenders in Minnesota are assigned risk levels prior to their release from prison, correctional staff frequently exercise professional judgment by overriding the presumptive risk level per an offender's score on the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (MnSOST-3), a sexual recidivism risk-assessment instrument. These overrides enabled us to evaluate whether the use of professional judgment resulted in better predictive performance than did reliance on "actuarial" judgment (MnSOST-3). Using multiple metrics, we also compared the performance of a home-grown instrument (the MnSOST-3) with a global assessment (the revised version of the Static-99 [Static-99R]) in predicting sexual recidivism for 650 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons in 2012. The results showed that use of professional judgment led to a significant degradation in predictive performance. Likewise, the MnSOST-3 outperformed the Static-99R for both sexual recidivism measures (rearrest and reconviction) across most of the performance metrics we used. These results imply that actuarial tools and home-grown tools are preferred relative to those that include professional judgment and those developed on different populations. (PsycINFO Database Record