Elizabeth Zaniewski, Ellen Brazier, Fred Nalugoda, Constantin T. Yiannoutsos, Kara Wools-Kaloustian, Monique van Lettow, Olga Tymejczyk, Peter F Rebeiro, Mark Urassa, Jean d’Amour Sinayobye, Denis Nash, Nathan Ford, Mary-Ann Davies, Grace Liu, Michael J. Vinikoor, and Nanina Anderegg
Background Most countries have formally adopted the World Health Organization’s 2015 recommendation of universal HIV treatment (“treat all”). However, there are few rigorous assessments of the real-world impact of treat all policies on antiretroviral treatment (ART) uptake across different contexts. Methods and findings We used longitudinal data for 814,603 patients enrolling in HIV care between 1 January 2004 and 10 July 2018 in 6 countries participating in the global International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium: Burundi (N = 11,176), Kenya (N = 179,941), Malawi (N = 84,558), Rwanda (N = 17,396), Uganda (N = 96,286), and Zambia (N = 425,246). Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design, we assessed the change in the proportion initiating ART within 30 days of enrollment in HIV care (rapid ART initiation) after country-level adoption of the treat all policy. A modified Poisson model was used to identify factors associated with failure to initiate ART rapidly under treat all. In each of the 6 countries, over 60% of included patients were female, and median age at enrollment ranged from 32 to 36 years. In all countries studied, national adoption of treat all was associated with large increases in rapid ART initiation. Significant increases in rapid ART initiation immediately after treat all policy adoption were observed in Rwanda, from 44.4% to 78.9% of patients (34.5 percentage points [pp], 95% CI 27.2 to 41.7; p < 0.001), Kenya (25.7 pp, 95% CI 21.8 to 29.5; p < 0.001), Burundi (17.7 pp, 95% CI 6.5 to 28.9; p = 0.002), and Malawi (12.5 pp, 95% CI 7.5 to 17.5; p < 0.001), while no immediate increase was observed in Zambia (0.4 pp, 95% CI −2.9 to 3.8; p = 0.804) and Uganda (−4.2 pp, 95% CI −9.0 to 0.7; p = 0.090). The rate of rapid ART initiation accelerated sharply following treat all policy adoption in Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia; slowed in Kenya; and did not change in Rwanda and Burundi. In post hoc analyses restricted to patients enrolling under treat all, young adults (16–24 years) and men were at increased risk of not rapidly initiating ART (compared to older patients and women, respectively). However, rapid ART initiation following enrollment increased for all groups as more time elapsed since treat all policy adoption. Study limitations include incomplete data on potential ART eligibility criteria, such as clinical status, pregnancy, and enrollment CD4 count, which precluded the assessment of rapid ART initiation specifically among patients known to be eligible for ART before treat all. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that adoption of treat all policies had a strong effect on increasing rates of rapid ART initiation, and that these increases followed different trajectories across the 6 countries. Young adults and men still require additional attention to further improve rapid ART initiation., Olga Tymejczyk and colleagues report on the impact of WHO's universal treatment recommendation for people with HIV in sub-Saharan African countries., Author summary Why was this study done? Since late 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that all people living with HIV (PLWH) initiate ART, regardless of disease stage and CD4 cell count, and as of mid-2018, 84% of low- and middle-income countries had formally adopted WHO’s recommendation to provide universal treatment to all PLWH. While modeling studies and trials have indicated that universal treatment, or “treat all,” increases rapid ART initiation and viral load suppression among patients, there is little evidence on the impact of treat all policies on uptake of ART in real-world implementation settings. What did the researchers do and find? We assessed rapid ART initiation (i.e., ART initiation within 30 days of enrolling into HIV care) among 814,603 patients before and after national adoption of treat all policies in 6 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia). To compare rapid ART initiation among those enrolling into care just before and just after national adoption of the treat all policy, we used a regression discontinuity design, using the date of HIV care enrollment as a continuous eligibility assignment variable. This design creates a quasi-experimental condition where the only systematic difference between patients enrolling just before and just after treat all policy adoption is the probability of treatment eligibility. There were large increases in rapid ART initiation after national adoption of treat all, with 81.6% of patients initiating ART within 30 days of enrollment after the policy adoption, and little difference in rapid ART initiation across patients with different immunodeficiency status, as measured by CD4 counts. In Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, and Rwanda, there were large and significant increases in rapid ART initiation immediately following national adoption of treat all, ranging from 12.5- and 17.7-percentage-point increases in rapid ART initiation in Malawi and Burundi, respectively, to 25.7- and 34.5-percentage-point increases in Kenya and Rwanda. In Uganda and Zambia, there was no significant increase in rapid ART initiation immediately following national adoption of treat all. However, there were significant increases in the rate of rapid ART initiation in the months following treat all adoption, with each additional month following the policy adoption being associated with 2.2- and 2.6-percentage-point increases in the proportion of patients initiating ART in Uganda and Zambia, respectively. In the period following treat all adoption, men and young adults (aged 16–24 years) were less likely to rapidly initiate ART than women and older adults, respectively. However, for all groups, the risk of failing to rapidly initiate ART significantly decreased with elapsed time after treat all policy adoption. What do these findings mean? Using a regression discontinuity design and real-world service delivery data, primarily from public-sector health facilities, our findings suggest that national adoption of treat all policies has led to appreciable increases in rapid ART initiation. As more follow-up data become available, future research should assess longer-term outcomes, such as retention in care, viral suppression, and treatment failure among patients initiating therapy under treat all.