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Summary: Background: Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke. Methods: Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI

Abstract SPHERE is a large multidisciplinary project to research and develop a sensor network to facilitate home healthcare by activity monitoring, specifically towards activities of daily living. It aims to use the latest technologies in low powered sensors, internet of things, machine learning and automated decision making to provide benefits to patients and clinicians. This dataset comprises data collected from a SPHERE sensor network deployment during a set of experiments conducted in the ‘SPHERE House’ in Bristol, UK, during 2016, including video tracking, accelerometer and environmental sensor data obtained by volunteers undertaking both scripted and non-scripted activities of daily living in a domestic residence. Trained annotators provided ground-truth labels annotating posture, ambulation, activity and location. This dataset is a valuable resource both within and outside the machine learning community, particularly in developing and evaluating algorithms for identifying activities of daily living from multi-modal sensor data in real-world environments. A subset of this dataset was released as a machine learning competition in association with the European Conference on Machine Learning (ECML-PKDD 2016).

Abstract Associations of circulating metabolic biomarkers with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and their added value for risk prediction are uncertain among Chinese adults. A case-cohort study included 882 T2D cases diagnosed during 8-years’ follow-up and a subcohort of 789 participants. NMR-metabolomic profiling quantified 225 plasma biomarkers in stored samples taken at recruitment into the study. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for T2D associated with individual biomarkers, with a set of biomarkers incorporated into an established T2D risk prediction model to assess improvement in discriminatory ability. Mean baseline BMI (SD) was higher in T2D cases than in the subcohort (25.7 [3.6] vs. 23.9 [3.6] kg/m2). Overall, 163 biomarkers were significantly and independently associated with T2D at false discovery rate (FDR) controlled p

The newly constructed time-resolved atomic, molecular and optical science instrument (TMO) is configured to take full advantage of both linear accelerators at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, the copper accelerator operating at a repetition rate of 120 Hz providing high per-pulse energy as well as the superconducting accelerator operating at a repetition rate of about 1 MHz providing high average intensity. Both accelerators power a soft X-ray free-electron laser with the new variable-gap undulator section. With this flexible light source, TMO supports many experimental techniques not previously available at LCLS and will have two X-ray beam focus spots in line. Thereby, TMO supports atomic, molecular and optical, strong-field and nonlinear science and will also host a designated new dynamic reaction microscope with a sub-micrometer X-ray focus spot. The flexible instrument design is optimized for studying ultrafast electronic and molecular phenomena and can take full advantage of the sub-femtosecond soft X-ray pulse generation program.

BackgroundThe current assessment of recovery after total hip or knee replacement is largely based on the measurement of health outcomes through self-report and clinical observations at follow-up appointments in clinical settings. Home activity-based monitoring may improve assessment of recovery by enabling the collection of more holistic information on a continuous basis. ObjectiveThis study aimed to introduce orthopedic surgeons to time-series analyses of patient activity data generated from a platform of sensors deployed in the homes of patients who have undergone primary total hip or knee replacement and understand the potential role of these data in postoperative clinical decision-making. MethodsOrthopedic surgeons and registrars were recruited through a combination of convenience and snowball sampling. Inclusion criteria were a minimum required experience in total joint replacement surgery specific to the hip or knee or familiarity with postoperative recovery assessment. Exclusion criteria included a lack of specific experience in the field. Of the 9 approached participants, 6 (67%) orthopedic surgeons and 3 (33%) registrars took part in either 1 of 3 focus groups or 1 of 2 interviews. Data were collected using an action-based approach in which stimulus materials (mock data visualizations) provided imaginative and creative interactions with the data. The data were analyzed using a thematic analysis approach. ResultsEach data visualization was presented sequentially followed by a discussion of key illustrative commentary from participants, ending with a summary of key themes emerging across the focus group and interview data set. ConclusionsThe limitations of the evidence are as follows. The data presented are from 1 English hospital. However, all data reflect the views of surgeons following standard national approaches and training. Although convenience sampling was used, participants’ background, skills, and experience were considered heterogeneous. Passively collected home monitoring data offered a real opportunity to more objectively characterize patients’ recovery from surgery. However, orthopedic surgeons highlighted the considerable difficulty in navigating large amounts of complex data within short medical consultations with patients. Orthopedic surgeons thought that a proposed dashboard presenting information and decision support alerts would fit best with existing clinical workflows. From this, the following guidelines for system design were developed: minimize the risk of misinterpreting data, express a level of confidence in the data, support clinicians in developing relevant skills as time-series data are often unfamiliar, and consider the impact of patient engagement with data in the future. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-021862

Abstract Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for men with prostate cancer (PCa) results in accelerated bone loss and increased risk of bone fracture. The aim of the present study was to evaluate serum bone markers—sclerostin, Dickkopf-1 (DKK-1) and osteoprotegerin (OPG), in a cohort of 88 PCa patients without known bone metastases, managed with and without ADT, and to analyse their relationship with bone mineral density (BMD) and sex steroids. The cross-sectional analysis between acute-, chronic- and former-ADT groups and PCa controls showed that sclerostin and OPG levels significantly differed between them (p = 0.029 and p = 0.032). Groups contributing to these significant changes were recorded. There were no significant differences in serum DKK-1 levels across the four groups (p = 0.683). In the longitudinal analysis, significant % decreases within groups were seen for DKK-1 [chronic-ADT (− 10.06%, p = 0.0057), former-ADT (− 12.77%, p = 0.0239), and in PCa controls group (− 16.73, p = 0.0022); and OPG levels in chronic ADT (− 8.28%, p = 0.003) and PCa controls group (− 12.82%, p = 0.017)]. However, % changes in sclerostin, DKK-1, and OPG did not differ significantly over 6-months across the evaluated groups. Sclerostin levels showed significant positive correlations with BMD at baseline in the ADT group, while in PCa controls this correlation existed at both baseline and 6-month time points. Sclerostin correlated negatively with testosterone in former ADT users and in PCa controls. Possible prognostic features denoted by parallel increases in sclerostin and BMD are discussed.

Spontaneous retraction of the testes is a rare, underreported, and under-described phenomenon. Our case describes a 58-year-old man with spontaneous retraction and constriction of his right testis. After an acute orchidectomy was performed secondary to pain, histology revealed metastatic goblet cell cancer. This is the first ever recorded case in the medical literature and is a truly rare and novel differential for the spontaneously retracted testis.

Background: The virus SARS-CoV-2 can exploit biological vulnerabilities (e.g. host proteins) in susceptible hosts that predispose to the development of severe COVID-19. Methods: To identify host proteins that may contribute to the risk of severe COVID-19, we undertook proteome-wide genetic colocalisation tests, and polygenic (pan) and cis-Mendelian randomisation analyses leveraging publicly available protein and COVID-19 datasets. Results: Our analytic approach identified several known targets (e.g. ABO, OAS1), but also nominated new proteins such as soluble Fas (colocalisation probability >0.9, p=1 × 10-4), implicating Fas-mediated apoptosis as a potential target for COVID-19 risk. The polygenic (pan) and cis-Mendelian randomisation analyses showed consistent associations of genetically predicted ABO protein with several COVID-19 phenotypes. The ABO signal is highly pleiotropic, and a look-up of proteins associated with the ABO signal revealed that the strongest association was with soluble CD209. We demonstrated experimentally that CD209 directly interacts with the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting a mechanism that could explain the ABO association with COVID-19. Conclusions: Our work provides a prioritised list of host targets potentially exploited by SARS-CoV-2 and is a precursor for further research on CD209 and FAS as therapeutically tractable targets for COVID-19. Funding: MAK, JSc, JH, AB, DO, MC, EMM, MG, ID were funded by Open Targets. J.Z. and T.R.G were funded by the UK Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit (MC_UU_00011/4). JSh and GJW were funded by the Wellcome Trust Grant 206194. This research was funded in part by the Wellcome Trust [Grant 206194]. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission.

The majority of published GWAS was performed in European ancestry populations. Here, Kuchenbaecker et al., test to which extent lipid loci are shared and find that the major lipid loci are mostly transferrable between Europeans and Asians while there are notable exceptions for African populations.

Innovations in material properties of goaltender skates have improved the protective characteristics of the boot, leading to redesign of the blade holder to resemble players’ holders. The redesigned blade holder introduces the ability to customize blade alignment, which may grant a performance advantage. We investigated the effect of blade alignment on kinematics and plantar pressure during the execution of two different goaltender-specific movement patterns: (1) the butterfly drop to recovery and (2) the lateral butterfly slide to recovery. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of three blade alignment conditions. The secondary objective was to compare two neutral alignment conditions, which was facilitated by studying the effects of two different holders on kinematics and plantar pressure during two goaltender-specific techniques. A male goaltender with professional experience completed an A–B–A design, executing five trials of A, B, and A for both movements with each blade alignment condition (n = 30 per collection, n = 90 overall) on synthetic ice in a controlled lab environment. Blade alignment conditions were defined by the alignment of the blade holder on the boot and the type of blade holder. Kinematic and plantar pressure data were collected simultaneously using 3D motion capture and in-skate pressure insoles, respectively. Increased butterfly drop velocity (2.07 ± 0.09 m/s) and peak plantar pressure (77.19 ± 2.67 psi) were revealed when executing the butterfly drop with medial alignment. This work suggests medial blade alignment may enable the goaltender to drop into the butterfly position faster, potentially increasing the likelihood of making a save.

Abstract Background Several neuromuscular disorders present muscle fatigue as a typical symptom. Therefore, a reliable method of fatigue assessment may be crucial for understanding how specific disease features evolve over time and for developing effective rehabilitation strategies. Unfortunately, despite its importance, a standardized, reliable and objective method for fatigue measurement is lacking in clinical practice and this work investigates a practical solution. Methods 40 healthy young adults performed a haptic reaching task, while holding a robotic manipulandum. Subjects were required to perform wrist flexion and extension movements in a resistive visco-elastic force field, as many times as possible, until the measured muscles (mainly flexor and extensor carpi radialis) exhibited signs of fatigue. In order to analyze the behavior and the characteristics of the two muscles, subjects were divided into two groups: in the first group, the resistive force was applied by the robot only during flexion movements, whereas, in the second group, the force was applied only during extension movements. Surface electromyographic signals (sEMG) of both flexor and extensor carpi radialis were acquired. A novel indicator to define the Onset of Fatigue (OF) was proposed and evaluated from the Mean Frequency of the sEMG signal. Furthermore, as measure of the subjects’ effort throughout the task, the energy consumption was estimated. Results From the beginning to the end of the task, as expected, all the subjects showed a decrement in Mean Frequency of the muscle involved in movements resisting the force. For the OF indicator, subjects were consistent in terms of timing of fatigue; moreover, extensor and flexor muscles presented similar OF times. The metabolic analysis showed a very low level of energy consumption and, from the behavioral point of view, the test was well tolerated by the subjects. Conclusion The robot-aided assessment test proposed in this study, proved to be an easy to administer, fast and reliable method for objectively measuring muscular fatigue in a healthy population. This work developed a framework for an evaluation that can be deployed in a clinical practice with patients presenting neuromuscular disorders. Considering the low metabolic demand, the requested effort would likely be well tolerated by clinical populations.

Summary: Background: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite considerable improvements in diagnosis and treatment, little is known about the short-term and long-term prognosis after a first stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, including China. We aimed to assess the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent stroke and mortality after a first stroke for each of the major pathological stroke types. Methods: This population-based cohort study included adults aged 35–74 years without disability who were recruited to the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). A baseline survey was conducted in ten geographical areas (five urban, five rural) in China, and participants had clinical measurements recorded. Participants were followed up by monitoring death registries and by electronic linkage to health registries and health insurance claims databases, with follow-up until Jan 1, 2017. Participants were excluded from analyses if they had a previous history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or ischaemic heart disease at baseline. All incidences of fatal and non-fatal stroke during the study period were recorded by type (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and unspecified type). Primary outcome measures were 28-day mortality, recurrent stroke, major vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death), vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Findings: Of 512 715 individuals in the CKB, 489 586 participants without previous ischaemic heart disease and stroke at recruitment were included, of whom 45 732 (42 073 [92%] confirmed by brain imaging) had a stroke during the study period. The mean age was 59·3 years (SD 9·8) for participants who had a stroke (54% women) and 50·8 years (10·3) for participants with no stroke (60% women). 36 588 (80%) of the incident cases of stroke were ischaemic stroke, 7440 (16%) were intracerebral haemorrhage, 702 (2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 1002 (2%) were an unspecified stroke type. 28-day mortality was 3% (95% CI 3–4) for ischaemic stroke, 47% (46–48)for intracerebral haemorrhage, 19% (17–22; 52% for rural areas and 32% for urban areas) subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 24% (22–27) for unspecified stroke. Among participants who survived stroke at 28 days, 41% (41–42) had recurrent stroke at 5 years (ischaemic stroke 41% [41–42], intracerebral haemorrhage 44% [42–46], subarachnoid haemorrhage 22% [18–27], unspecified stroke type 40% [35–44]) and mortality at 5 years was 17% ([17–18] ischaemic stroke 16% [15–16], intracerebral haemorrhage 28% [26–29], subarachnoid haemorrhage 16% [12–20], unspecified stroke type 15% [12–19]). After a first ischaemic stroke, 91% of recurrent strokes were also ischaemic stroke; after an intracerebral haemorrhage, 56% of recurrent strokes were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 41% of recurrent strokes were ischaemic stroke. Interpretation: After a first stroke, the risk of recurrence or death within 5 years was high among this population of Chinese adults. Urgent improvements to secondary prevention of stroke in China are needed to reduce these risks. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China. Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Summary: Background: Cooking practice has transitioned from use of solid fuels to use of clean fuels, with addition of better ventilation facilities. However, the change in mortality risk associated with such a transition remains unclear. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) Study enrolled participants (aged 30–79 years) from ten areas across China; we chose to study participants from five urban areas where transition from use of solid fuels to clean fuels for cooking was prevalent. Participants who reported regular cooking (weekly or more frequently) at baseline were categorised as persistent clean fuel users, previous solid fuel users, or persistent solid fuel users, according to self-reported fuel use histories. All-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality were identified through linkage to China's Disease Surveillance Point system and local mortality records. Findings: Between June 24, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 226 186 participants living in five urban areas of China were enrolled in the CKB Study. Among 171 677 participants who reported cooking regularly (weekly or more frequently), 75 785 (44%) were persistent clean fuel users, 80 511 (47%) were previous solid fuel users, and 15 381 (9%) were persistent solid fuel users. During a mean of 9·8 (SD 1·7) years of follow-up, 10 831 deaths were documented, including 3819 cardiovascular deaths and 761 respiratory deaths. Compared with persistent clean fuel users, persistent solid fuel users had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·19, 95% CI 1·10–1·28), cardiovascular mortality (1·24, 1·10–1·39), and respiratory mortality (1·43, 1·10–1·85). The excess risk of all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality fell by more than 60% in 5 years after cessation of solid fuel use and continued to decrease afterwards. Use of ventilation was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk, even among persistent clean fuel users (HR 0·78, 0·69–0·89). Interpretation: Solid fuel use for cooking is associated with a higher risk of mortality, and cessation of solid fuel use cuts excess mortality risks swiftly and substantially within 5 years. Ventilation use also lowers the risk of mortality, even among people who persistently use clean fuels. It is of prime importance for both policy makers and the public to accelerate the transition from solid fuels to clean fuels and promote efficient ventilation to minimise further adverse health effects. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust, and Kadoorie Charitable Foundation.

Even on pain free days, recurrent neck pain alters sensorimotor integration (SMI) measured via somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs). Neck muscle fatigue decreases upper limb proprioception, and thus may interfere with upper limb motor task acquisition and SMI. This study aimed to determine the effect of cervical extensor muscle (CEM) fatigue on upper limb motor acquisition and retention; and SMI, measured via early SEPs. Twenty-four healthy right-handed individuals were randomly assigned to control or CEM fatigue. Baseline SEPs were elicited via median nerve stimulation at the wrist. Participants then lay prone on a padded table. The fatigue group supported a 2 kg weight until they could no longer maintain the position. The control group rested their neck in neutral for 5 min. Participants completed pre- and post-motor skill acquisition while seated, SEPs were again collected. Task retention was measured 24 h later. Accuracy improved post acquisition and at retention for both groups (p < 0.001), with controls outperforming the fatigue group (p < 0.05). The fatigue group had significantly greater increases in the N24 (p = 0.017) and N30 (p = 0.007) SEP peaks. CEM fatigue impaired upper limb motor learning outcomes in conjunction with differential changes in SEP peak amplitudes related to SMI.

Abstract Background Radical prostatectomy is the most common treatment for localised prostate cancer in New Zealand. Active surveillance was introduced to prevent overtreatment and reduce costs while preserving the option of radical prostatectomy. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance compared to watchful waiting and radical prostatectomy. Methods Markov models were constructed to estimate the life-time cost-effectiveness of active surveillance compared to watchful waiting and radical prostatectomy for low risk localised prostate cancer patients aged 45–70 years, using national datasets in New Zealand and published studies including the SPCG-4 study. This study was from the perspective of the Ministry of Health in New Zealand. Results Radical prostatectomy is less costly than active surveillance in men aged 45–55 years with low risk localised prostate cancer, but more costly for men aged 60–70 years. Scenario analyses demonstrated significant uncertainty as to the most cost-effective option in all age groups because of the unavailability of good quality of life data for men under active surveillance. Uncertainties around the likelihood of having radical prostatectomy when managed with active surveillance also affect the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance against radical prostatectomy. Conclusions Active surveillance is less likely to be cost-effective compared to radical prostatectomy for younger men diagnosed with low risk localised prostate cancer. The cost-effectiveness of active surveillance compared to radical prostatectomy is critically dependent on the ‘trigger’ for radical prostatectomy and the quality of life in men on active surveillance. Research on the latter would be beneficial.

Summary: Background: China has high stroke rates despite the population being relatively lean. Uncertainty persists about the relevance of adiposity to risk of stroke types. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with incidence of stroke types and effect mediation by blood pressure in Chinese men and women. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults aged 30–79 years from ten areas (five urban and five rural) during 2004–08. During a median 9 years (IQR 8–10) of follow-up, 32 448 strokes (about 90% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among 489 301 participants without previous cardiovascular disease. Cox regression analysis was used to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic stroke (n=25 210) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=5380) associated with adiposity. Findings: Mean baseline body-mass index (BMI) was 23·6 kg/m2 (SD 3·2), and 331 723 (67·8%) participants had a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (mean 17·1 kg/m2 [SD 0·9] to 31·7 kg/m2 [2·0]), each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 8·3 mm Hg (SE 0·04) higher systolic blood pressure. BMI was positively associated with ischaemic stroke, with an HR of 1·30 (95% CI 1·28–1·33 per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI), which was generally consistent with that predicted by equivalent differences in systolic blood pressure (1·25 [1·24–1·26]). The HR for intracerebral haemorrhage (1·11 [1·07–1·16] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI) was less extreme, and much weaker than that predicted by the corresponding difference in systolic blood pressure (1·48 [1·46–1·50]). Other adiposity measures showed similar associations with stroke types. After adjustment for usual systolic blood pressure, the positive associations with ischaemic stroke were attenuated (1·05 [1·03–1·07] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI); for intracerebral haemorrhage, they were reversed (0·73 [0·70–0·77]). High adiposity (BMI >23 kg/m2) accounted for 14·7% of total stroke (16·5% of ischaemic stroke and 6·7% of intracerebral haemorrhage). Interpretation: In Chinese adults, adiposity was strongly positively associated with ischaemic stroke, chiefly through its effect on blood pressure. For intracerebral haemorrhage, leanness, either per se or through some other factor (or factors), might increase risk, offsetting the protective effects of lower blood pressure. Funding: UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Summary: Background: The age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular disease has been studied mostly in high-income countries, and before the widespread use of brain imaging for diagnosis of the main stroke types (ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage). We aimed to investigate this relationship among adults in China. Methods: 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years were recruited into a prospective study from ten areas of China between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Participants attended assessment centres where they were interviewed about demographic and lifestyle characteristics, and their blood pressure, height, and weight were measured. Incident disease was identified through linkage to local mortality records, chronic disease registries, and claims to the national health insurance system. We used Cox regression analysis to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating systolic blood pressure to disease incidence. HRs were corrected for regression dilution to estimate associations with long-term average (usual) systolic blood pressure. Findings: During a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR 8–10), there were 88 105 incident vascular and non-vascular chronic disease events (about 90% of strokes events were diagnosed using brain imaging). At ages 40–79 years (mean age at event 64 years [SD 9]), usual systolic blood pressure was continuously and positively associated with incident major vascular disease throughout the range 120–180 mm Hg: each 10 mm Hg higher usual systolic blood pressure was associated with an approximately 30% higher risk of ischaemic heart disease (HR 1·31 [95% CI 1·28–1·34]) and ischaemic stroke (1·30 [1·29–1·31]), but the association with intracerebral haemorrhage was about twice as steep (1·68 [1·65–1·71]). HRs for vascular disease were twice as steep at ages 40–49 years than at ages 70–79 years. Usual systolic blood pressure was also positively associated with incident chronic kidney disease (1·40 [1·35–1·44]) and diabetes (1·14 [1·12–1·15]). About half of all vascular deaths in China were attributable to elevated blood pressure (ie, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg), accounting for approximately 1 million deaths (

Summary: Background: In developed countries, smoking is associated with increased risk of diabetes. Little is known about the association in China, where cigarette consumption has increased (first in urban, then in rural areas) relatively recently. Moreover, uncertainty remains about the effect of smoking cessation on diabetes in China and elsewhere. We aimed to assess the associations of smoking and smoking cessation with risk of incident diabetes among Chinese adults. Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years during 2004–08 from ten diverse areas (five urban and five rural) across China. Participants were interviewed at study assessment clinics, underwent physical measurements, and had a non-fasting blood sample taken. Participants were separated into four categories according to smoking history: never-smokers, ever-regular smokers, ex-smokers, and occasional smokers. Incident diabetes cases were identified through linkage with diabetes surveillance systems, the national health insurance system, and death registries. All analyses were done separately in men and women and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) for diabetes associated with smoking. Findings: 68% (n=134 975) of men ever smoked regularly compared with 3% (n=7811) of women. During 9 years' follow-up, 13 652 new-onset diabetes cases were recorded among 482 589 participants without previous diabetes. Among urban men, smokers had an adjusted HR of 1·18 (95% CI 1·12–1·25) for diabetes. HRs increased with younger age at first smoking regularly (1·12, 1·20, and 1·27 at ≥25 years, 20–24 years, and

BackgroundBreastfeeding confers substantial benefits to child health and has also been associated with lower risk of maternal cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in later life. However, the evidence on the effects of CVD is still inconsistent, especially in East Asians, in whom the frequency and duration of breastfeeding significantly differ from those in the West. Methods and ResultsIn 2004–2008, the nationwide China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 0.5 million individuals aged 30 to 79 years from 10 diverse regions across China. During 8 years of follow‐up, 16 671 incident cases of coronary heart disease and 23 983 cases of stroke were recorded among 289 573 women without prior CVD at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident CVD by breastfeeding. Overall, ≈99% of women had given birth, among whom 97% reported a history of breastfeeding, with a median duration of 12 months per child. Compared with parous women who had never breastfed, ever breastfeeding was associated with a significantly lower risk of CVD, with adjusted HRs of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84–0.99) for coronary heart disease and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85–0.99) for stroke. Women who had breastfed for ≥24 months had an 18% (HR, 0.82; 0.77–0.87) lower risk of coronary heart disease and a 17% (HR, 0.83; 0.79–0.87) lower risk of stroke compared with women who had never breastfed. Among women who ever breastfed, each additional 6 months of breastfeeding per child was associated with an adjusted HR of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.94–0.98) for coronary heart disease and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96–0.98) for stroke. ConclusionsAmong Chinese women, a history of breastfeeding was associated with an ≈10% lower risk of CVD in later life and the magnitude of the inverse association was stronger among those with a longer duration of breastfeeding.

Introduction: Reduction in bone mineral density (BMD) is a common side effect of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). We aimed to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in BMD and associated bone markers in patients with nonmetastatic prostate cancer (PCa) managed with and without ADT. Methods: Bone mineral density of the total body, lumbar spine, femoral neck, ultradistal forearm, and one-third distal radius was measured in 88 patients with PCa without bone metastases at baseline and at 6 months. Patients were categorized into 4 groups: (1) acute ADT (≤6 months), (2) chronic ADT (>6 months), (3) former ADT, and (4) no ADT (controls). Serum levels of bone metabolism markers, procollagen type I N-terminal propeptide (PINP) and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX), were also measured. Results: In the cross-sectional analysis, men receiving chronic ADT had significantly lower total body BMD as compared with former ADT users and men with no ADT. In longitudinal analysis, a significant reduction in ultradistal forearm BMD was observed in both acute and chronic ADT users after 6 months (4.08% and 2.7%, P = .012 and .026, respectively). A significant reduction in total body BMD was observed in acute ADT users (2.99%, P = .032). Former ADT users had a significant increase in both lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD (2.84% and 1.59%, P = .008 and .002, respectively). The changes in BMD were not significantly different between acute and chronic ADT users. In the cross-sectional analysis, higher levels of PINP and CTX were observed in acute and chronic ADT users than former ADT users or PCa controls. In longitudinal analysis, the level of serum PINP and CTX did not change significantly from baseline to 6 months in acute, chronic, and former ADT users, or PCa controls, and the percentage change did not differ among the 4 groups. Conclusions: Men on acute ADT had a similar rate of bone loss to men on chronic ADT. Reversibility in ADT-induced bone loss was observed in those who discontinued ADT. Serum levels of PINP and CTX were higher in acute and chronic ADT users and levels returned to the range of PCa controls when treatment was withdrawn.

Background: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are one of the most common reasons for women to attend primary care. There are four different antibiotics currently recommended in England for treatment of uncomplicated UTI but little evidence on their comparative cost-effectiveness. Aim: To assess the relative cost-effectiveness of the four antibiotics currently recommended in England for treatment of uncomplicated UTI in adult women. Design & setting: A cost-effectiveness model in adult women with signs and symptoms of uncomplicated UTI in primary care in England treated with fosfomycin, nitrofurantoin, pivmecillinam, or trimethoprim. Method: A decision tree economic model of the treatment pathway encompassed up to two rounds of treatment, accounting for different resistance levels. End points included recovery, persistence, pyelonephritis, and/or hospitalisation. Prescription, primary and secondary care treatment, and diagnostic testing costs were aggregated. Cost-effectiveness was assessed as cost per UTI resolved. Results: Trimethoprim 200 mg twice daily (for 3 or 7 days) was estimated to be the most cost-effective treatment (£70 per UTI resolved) when resistance was

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of neutral and pronated handgrip positions on corticospinal excitability to the biceps brachii during arm cycling. Corticospinal and spinal excitability were assessed using motor evoked potentials (MEPs) elicited via transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and cervicomedullary-evoked potentials (CMEPs) elicited via transmastoid electrical stimulation (TMES), respectively. Participants were seated upright in front on arm cycle ergometer. Responses were recorded from the biceps brachii at two different crank positions (6 and 12 o’clock positions relative to a clock face) while arm cycling with neutral and pronated handgrip positions. Responses were also elicited during tonic elbow flexion to compare/contrast the results to a non-rhythmic motor output. MEP and CMEP amplitudes were significantly larger at the 6 o’clock position while arm cycling with a neutral handgrip position compared to pronated (45.6 and 29.9%, respectively). There were no differences in MEP and CMEP amplitudes at the 12 o’clock position for either handgrip position. For the tonic contractions, MEPs were significantly larger with a neutral versus pronated handgrip position (32.6% greater) while there were no difference in CMEPs. Corticospinal excitability was higher with a neutral handgrip position for both arm cycling and tonic elbow flexion. While spinal excitability was also higher with a neutral handgrip position during arm cycling, no difference was observed during tonic elbow flexion. These findings suggest that not only is corticospinal excitability to the biceps brachii modulated at both the supraspinal and spinal level, but that it is influenced differently between rhythmic arm cycling and tonic elbow flexion.

Background: As part of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) single technology appraisal (STA) process, independent Evidence Review Groups (ERGs) critically appraise the company submission. During the critical appraisal process the ERG may undertake analyses to explore uncertainties around the company’s model and their implications for decision-making. The ERG reports are a central component of the evidence considered by the NICE Technology Appraisal Committees (ACs) in their deliberations. Objective: The aim of this research was to develop an understanding of the number and type of exploratory analyses undertaken by the ERGs within the STA process and to understand how these analyses are used by the NICE ACs in their decision-making. Methods: The 100 most recently completed STAs with published guidance were selected for inclusion in the analysis. The documents considered were ERG reports, clarification letters, the first appraisal consultation document and the final appraisal determination. Over 400 documents were assessed in this study. The categories of types of exploratory analyses included fixing errors, fixing violations, addressing matters of judgement and the ERG-preferred base case. A content analysis of documents (documentary analysis) was undertaken to identify and extract relevant data, and narrative synthesis was then used to rationalise and present these data. Results: The level and type of detail in ERG reports and clarification letters varied considerably. The vast majority (93%) of ERG reports reported one or more exploratory analyses. The most frequently reported type of analysis in these 93 ERG reports related to the category ‘matters of judgement’, which was reported in 83 (89%) reports. The category ‘ERG base-case/preferred analysis’ was reported in 45 (48%) reports, the category ‘fixing errors’ was reported in 33 (35%) reports and the category ‘fixing violations’ was reported in 17 (18%) reports. The exploratory analyses performed were the result of issues raised by an ERG in its critique of the submitted economic evidence. These analyses had more influence on recommendations earlier in the STA process than later on in the process. Limitations: The descriptions of analyses undertaken were often highly specific to a particular STA and could be inconsistent across ERG reports and thus difficult to interpret. Conclusions: Evidence Review Groups frequently conduct exploratory analyses to test or improve the economic evaluations submitted by companies as part of the STA process. ERG exploratory analyses often have an influence on the recommendations produced by the ACs. Future work: More in-depth analysis is needed to understand how ERGs make decisions regarding which exploratory analyses should be undertaken. More research is also needed to fully understand which types of exploratory analyses are most useful to ACs in their decision-making. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: Identification of the underlying cause of stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is important so that preventative therapy can be used to reduce the risk of recurrence. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) are diagnostic tools used to identify those cardiac sources of stroke that may respond to treatment. Objectives: (1) Undertake systematic reviews to determine (a) the prevalence of cardiac sources of stroke and TIA and (b) the diagnostic accuracy of echocardiography; (2) undertake a survey to ascertain which guidelines and management strategies are used by UK stroke centres; and (3) evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the addition of TTE to the routine assessment of patients who have had a first-episode diagnosed stroke or TIA in the UK. Data sources: Bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database were searched from inception to December 2010 (prevalence) or September 2011 (diagnostic accuracy). Bibliographies of related papers were screened and experts were contacted to identify additional published and unpublished references. Review methods: The systematic reviews were undertaken according to the general principles recommended in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years accrued by each potential echocardiography strategy in the management of stroke and TIA for patients aged 45, 55 and 65 years. The model took a lifetime horizon and a NHS perspective. Costs and health benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 3.5%. Evidence to enable modelling was found for left atrial thrombus only. The cost-effectiveness of echocardiography is therefore based on all stroke patients being tested but only those with a left atrial thrombus receiving the benefits and harms of treatment. To describe current NHS stroke management practice we provided a questionnaire to the lead clinician of all stroke units in the UK. Results: The searches identified 17,278 citations for the systematic review of the prevalence of potential cardiac sources of stroke and TIA, of which 65 studies were included. Patent foramen ovale was the most frequently reported pathology, followed by atrial septal aneurysm and mitral valve prolapse, with prevalence ranging from 0.25% to 73%, from 0.4% to 28% and from 0% to 31.6% respectively. For the systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of echocardiography, 16,504 citations were identified, of which 51 studies were included. The pooled sensitivity to detect left atrial thrombus in three studies using transthoracic echocardiography in second harmonic imaging mode (TTEh) was 0.79 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.47 to 0.94], with a pooled specificity of 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99 to 1.00) compared with TOE. Differences in the diagnostic accuracy of tests occurred mostly in their sensitivity to detect cardiac sources of stroke. No adverse events data were reported. Our principal economic finding is that TTEh is a cost-effective use of NHS resources compared with TOE when clinicians deem it the most appropriate test. The survey showed that the decision-making process for the management of stroke and TIA is very complex and varies considerably by site. It is clear that to accurately describe current management practice a very sophisticated questionnaire would be required. Limitations: The prevalence review highlights the difficulties that clinicians face when identifying the cause of cardioembolic stroke (the limitations of the tests, the confounding comorbidities and the inherent mobility of blood clots). The diagnostic accuracy review was limited by the small number of studies reporting data or because studies included too few participants with a cardiac pathology, leaving a large degree of uncertainty about the underlying diagnostic accuracy. The economic model has limitations because of the limited data available for important parameters such as the efficacy of treatment in reducing stroke recurrence. Conclusion: The economic analysis indicates that, in those cases in which TTEh is deemed the most appropriate test, it is a cost-effective use of NHS resources. However, this analysis has highlighted a lack of evidence in several areas and the results of the economic evaluation should therefore be treated with caution. There is a need for further evaluation of current echocardiography technologies, the causal associations between potential risk factors and stroke and whether or not anticoagulation therapies prevent recurrent stroke. Studies attempting to establish the prevalence of cardiac sources of stroke should identify all potential risk factors, rule out those that are not relevant and grade the findings according to risk. Research is also needed to reduce the uncertainty around the estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of TTEh and TOE, singly and in combination, in detecting treatable cardiac abnormalities compared with the ‘gold standard’ in each pathology. Study registration: The study is registered as PROSPERO no. CRD42011001353. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background and purpose Previous studies, mostly focusing on the European population, have reported polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might achieve risk stratification of stroke. We aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese population.Methods Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set (n=22 191) and a population-based testing set (n=72 150). Four previously developed PRSs were included, and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were developed. The PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing set. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)).Results In the testing set, during 872 919 person-years of follow-up, 8514 incident stroke events were documented. The PRSs of any stroke (AS) and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS, IS and ICH (p