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Background In 2021, the US Preventive Services Task Force expanded its lung screening recommendation to include persons aged 50–80 years who had ever smoked and had at least 20 pack-years of exposure and less than 15 years since quitting (YSQ). However, studies have suggested that screening persons who formerly smoked with longer YSQ could be beneficial. Methods The authors used two validated lung cancer models to assess the benefits and harms of screening using various YSQ thresholds (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and no YSQ) and the age at which screening was stopped. The impact of enforcing the YSQ criterion only at entry, but not at exit, also was evaluated. Outcomes included the number of screens, the percentage ever screened, screening benefits (lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained), and harms (false-positive tests, overdiagnosed cases, radiation-induced lung cancer deaths). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of restricting screening to those who had at least 5 years of life expectancy. Results As the YSQ criterion was relaxed, the number of screens and the benefits and harms of screening increased. Raising the age at which to stop screening age resulted in additional benefits but with more overdiagnosis, as expected, because screening among those older than 80 years increased. Limiting screening to those who had at least 5 years of life expectancy would maintain most of the benefits while considerably reducing the harms. Conclusions Expanding screening to persons who formerly smoked and have greater than 15 YSQ would result in considerable increases in deaths averted and life-years gained. Although additional harms would occur, these could be moderated by ensuring that screening is restricted to only those with reasonable life expectancy.

Background Neurological COVID-19 disease has been reported widely, but published studies often lack information on neurological outcomes and prognostic risk factors. We aimed to describe the spectrum of neurological disease in hospitalised COVID-19 patients; characterise clinical outcomes; and investigate factors associated with a poor outcome. Methods We conducted an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of hospitalised patients with neurological COVID-19 disease, using standard case definitions. We invited authors of studies from the first pandemic wave, plus clinicians in the Global COVID-Neuro Network with unpublished data, to contribute. We analysed features associated with poor outcome (moderate to severe disability or death, 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin Scale) using multivariable models. Results We included 83 studies (31 unpublished) providing IPD for 1979 patients with COVID-19 and acute new-onset neurological disease. Encephalopathy (978 [49%] patients) and cerebrovascular events (506 [26%]) were the most common diagnoses. Respiratory and systemic symptoms preceded neurological features in 93% of patients; one third developed neurological disease after hospital admission. A poor outcome was more common in patients with cerebrovascular events (76% [95% CI 67–82]), than encephalopathy (54% [42–65]). Intensive care use was high (38% [35–41]) overall, and also greater in the cerebrovascular patients. In the cerebrovascular, but not encephalopathic patients, risk factors for poor outcome included breathlessness on admission and elevated D-dimer. Overall, 30-day mortality was 30% [27–32]. The hazard of death was comparatively lower for patients in the WHO European region. Interpretation Neurological COVID-19 disease poses a considerable burden in terms of disease outcomes and use of hospital resources from prolonged intensive care and inpatient admission; preliminary data suggest these may differ according to WHO regions and country income levels. The dif

OBJECTIVE: The presence of macroscopic residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery (PCS) is an important factor influencing survival for patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC). More research is needed to identify factors associated with having macroscopic residual disease. We analyzed 12 lifestyle and personal exposures known to be related to ovarian cancer risk or inflammation to identify those associated with having residual disease after surgery. METHODS: This analysis used data on 2054 patients with advanced stage HGSC from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. The exposures were body mass index, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use, depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate use, endometriosis, first-degree family history of ovarian cancer, incomplete pregnancy, menopausal hormone therapy use, menopausal status, parity, smoking, and tubal ligation. Logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between these exposures and having residual disease following PCS. RESULTS: Menopausal estrogen-only therapy (ET) use was associated with 33% lower odds of having macroscopic residual disease compared to never use (OR = 0.67, 95%CI 0.46-0.97, p = 0.033). Compared to nulliparous women, parous women who did not breastfeed had 36% lower odds of having residual disease (OR = 0.64, 95%CI 0.43-0.94, p = 0.022), while there was no association among parous women who breastfed (OR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.65-1.25, p = 0.53). CONCLUSIONS: The association between ET and having no macroscopic residual disease is plausible given a strong underlying biologic hypothesis between this exposure and diagnosis with HGSC. If this or the parity finding is replicated, these factors could be included in risk stratification models to determine whether HGSC patients should receive PCS or neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

IMPORTANCE The revised 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines for lung cancer screening have been shown to reduce disparities in screening eligibility and performance between African American and White individuals vs the 2013 guidelines. However, potential disparities across other racial and ethnic groups in the US remain unknown. Risk model-based screening may reduce racial and ethnic disparities and improve screening performance, but neither validation of key risk prediction models nor their screening performance has been examined by race and ethnicity. OBJECTIVE To validate and recalibrate the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 (PLCOm2012) model-a well-established risk prediction model based on a predominantly White population-across races and ethnicities in the US and evaluate racial and ethnic disparities and screening performance through risk-based screening using PLCOm2012 vs the USPSTF 2021 criteria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In a population-based cohort design, the Multiethnic Cohort Study enrolled participants in 1993-1996, followed up through December 31, 2018. Data analysis was conducted from April 1, 2022, to May 19. 2023. A total of 105 261 adults with a smoking history were included. EXPOSURES The 6-year lung cancer risk was calculated through recalibrated PLCOm2012 (ie, PLCOm2012-Update) and screening eligibility based on a 6-year risk threshold greater than or equal to 1.3%, yielding similar eligibility as the USPSTF 2021 guidelines. OUTCOMES Predictive accuracy, screening eligibility-incidence (E-I) ratio (ie, ratio of the number of eligible to incident cases), and screening performance (sensitivity, specificity, and number needed to screen to detect 1 lung cancer). RESULTS Of 105 261 participants (60 011 [57.0%] men; mean [SD] age, 59.8 [8.7] years), consisting of 19 258 (18.3%) African American, 27 227 (25.9%) Japanese American, 21 383 (20.3%) Latino, 8368 (7.9%) Native Hawaiian/Othe

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical phenotypes and infectious triggers in the 2019 Peruvian Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) outbreak. METHODS: We prospectively collected clinical and neurophysiologic data of patients with GBS admitted to a tertiary hospital in Lima, Peru, between May and August 2019. Molecular, immunologic, and microbiological methods were used to identify causative infectious agents. Sera from 41 controls were compared with cases for antibodies to Campylobacter jejuni and gangliosides. Genomic analysis was performed on 4 C jejuni isolates. RESULTS: The 49 included patients had a median age of 44 years (interquartile range [IQR] 30-54 years), and 28 (57%) were male. Thirty-two (65%) had symptoms of a preceding infection: 24 (49%) diarrhea and 13 (27%) upper respiratory tract infection. The median time between infectious to neurologic symptoms was 3 days (IQR 2-9 days). Eighty percent had a pure motor form of GBS, 21 (43%) had the axonal electrophysiologic subtype, and 18% the demyelinating subtype. Evidence of recent C jejuni infection was found in 28/43 (65%). No evidence of recent arbovirus infection was found. Twenty-three cases vs 11 controls (OR 3.3, confidence interval [CI] 95% 1.2-9.2, p < 0.01) had IgM and/or IgA antibodies against C jejuni. Anti-GM1:phosphatidylserine and/or anti-GT1a:GM1 heteromeric complex antibodies were strongly positive in cases (92.9% sensitivity and 68.3% specificity). Genomic analysis showed that the C jejuni strains were closely related and had the Asn51 polymorphism at cstII gene. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the 2019 Peruvian GBS outbreak was associated with C jejuni infection and that the C jejuni strains linked to GBS circulate widely in different parts of the world.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical phenotypes and infectious triggers in the 2019 Peruvian Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) outbreak. METHODS: We prospectively collected clinical and neurophysiologic data of patients with GBS admitted to a tertiary hospital in Lima, Peru, between May and August 2019. Molecular, immunologic, and microbiological methods were used to identify causative infectious agents. Sera from 41 controls were compared with cases for antibodies to Campylobacter jejuni and gangliosides. Genomic analysis was performed on 4 C jejuni isolates. RESULTS: The 49 included patients had a median age of 44 years (interquartile range [IQR] 30-54 years), and 28 (57%) were male. Thirty-two (65%) had symptoms of a preceding infection: 24 (49%) diarrhea and 13 (27%) upper respiratory tract infection. The median time between infectious to neurologic symptoms was 3 days (IQR 2-9 days). Eighty percent had a pure motor form of GBS, 21 (43%) had the axonal electrophysiologic subtype, and 18% the demyelinating subtype. Evidence of recent C jejuni infection was found in 28/43 (65%). No evidence of recent arbovirus infection was found. Twenty-three cases vs 11 controls (OR 3.3, confidence interval [CI] 95% 1.2-9.2, p < 0.01) had IgM and/or IgA antibodies against C jejuni. Anti-GM1:phosphatidylserine and/or anti-GT1a:GM1 heteromeric complex antibodies were strongly positive in cases (92.9% sensitivity and 68.3% specificity). Genomic analysis showed that the C jejuni strains were closely related and had the Asn51 polymorphism at cstII gene. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the 2019 Peruvian GBS outbreak was associated with C jejuni infection and that the C jejuni strains linked to GBS circulate widely in different parts of the world.

Background: Risk-prediction models have been proposed to select individuals for lung cancer screening. However, their longterm effects are uncertain. This study evaluates long-term benefits and harms of risk-based screening compared with current United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations. Methods: Four independent natural history models were used to perform a comparative modeling study evaluating longterm benefits and harms of selecting individuals for lung cancer screening through risk-prediction models. In total, 363 riskbased screening strategies varying by screening starting and stopping age, risk-prediction model used for eligibility (Bach, PLCOm2012, or Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]), and risk threshold were evaluated for a 1950 US birth cohort. Among the evaluated outcomes were

© 2019 Author(s). Introduction Cervical cancer disproportionately burdens low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Guatemala. Self-collection testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) has been suggested as a form of cervical cancer screening to facilitate access in LMICs. This study assessed and compared the acceptability of self-collection HPV testing in two rural, indigenous and ethnically distinct communities in Guatemala: Santiago Atitlán, Sololá and Livingston, Izabal. Methods All participants, women between the ages of 18 and 60, completed a questionnaire. Eligible participants were also asked to self-collect a vaginal sample and complete a questionnaire regarding comfort and acceptability. Self-collected samples were tested for high-risk HPV using the real-time PCR Hybribio kit. Results In the indigenous community of Santiago Atitlán, of 438 age-eligible participants, 94% completed self-collection. Of those, 81% found it comfortable and 98% were willing to use it as a form of screening. In the multiethnic (Afro-Caribbean, indigenous) community of Livingston, of 322 age-eligible participants, 53% chose to self-collect. Among those who took the test, 83% found it comfortable and 95% were willing to use it as a form of screening. In Livingston, literacy (can read and/or write vs cannot read or write) was higher in women who chose to self-collect (prevalence ratio 2.25; 95% CI 1.38 to 3.68). Ethnicity, history of screening and reproductive history were not associated with willingness to self-collect in Livingston. Women in Santiago reported less prior use of healthcare than women in Livingston. Overall, 19% (106/549) of samples tested positive for high-risk HPV. Conclusion Among women willing to self-collect in rural and indigenous communities in Guatemala