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The Xi Jinping era has marked an unprecedented time for the prioritizing of soft power in China’s foreign policy. Prior literature asserts China pushes three strategic narratives abroad: there are economic benefits to partnering with China, there are political benefits to China’s government model, and partnership with China is more beneficial than with the United States (U.S.). Past literature also asserts that a country’s level of development, its level of democracy, and the amount of Chinese media infrastructure it hosts determines the impact of these strategic narratives in foreign countries. This thesis explores the following: how is China using media to advance its strategic narratives abroad? This was accomplished through an analysis of Chinese sponsored media in Zimbabwe and the United Kingdom (UK) from 2012 to 2019, and concludes that the proposed strategic narratives were found in foreign media, had slight success in Zimbabwean media, and were not adopted by UK media. This difference in adoption by the countries was found to support past literature as China was more successful in Zimbabwe because it is authoritarian, less developed, and hosted more effective Chinese media infrastructure than the UK; whereas the UK had more liberal democratic values, was more developed, and fostered a media environment with diversified viewpoints. This study calls for the U.S. to strengthen its strategic narratives abroad to thwart China’s soft power pursuits., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This research project evaluated U.S. trade and technology transfer policies with China from 2008 to 2022. It sought to identify the major drivers of these policies as well as the causal mechanisms for major shifts in these policies through an analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources. This thesis revealed that U.S. trade and technology transfer policies transitioned away from being primarily driven by free and open trade with China to being guided by U.S. economic competition and national security concerns. This transition was gradually and continuously amplified over time due to China’s unfair business tactics and illicit technology acquisitions from the U.S. As China continued to modernize, bolster its regional influence, strengthen its military, and propel its economy, the U.S. increasingly discovered China obtained key U.S. technologies and trade secrets through both open and surreptitious means. The U.S. simultaneously felt that it was losing its regional influence in the Indo-Pacific as China’s was increasing. Thus, the U.S. hardened its trade and technology transfer policies with China to preserve key U.S. technologies, maintain its regional influence, and slow China’s economic, military, and regional influence rise. Economic competition and national security became mutually reinforcing drivers of U.S. technology transfer and trade policies to the point that the veil separating the two became negligible., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Arms acquisitions are an important instrument used to carry out a country’s national defense and foreign policy strategies. For nations with rich histories of arms acquisitions, investigating the motives that encourage purchasing arms offers a look into the state’s security perspectives. Within the Indo-Pacific, several countries that are closely aligned with the United States - namely Japan and Taiwan - have engaged in large volume arms sales with the U.S. in the 21st century. This thesis investigates the factors that have encouraged Japan and Taiwan to purchase American arms in an effort to determine the motives that sustain long-term arms commitments. It examines various domestic and international drivers that have both encouraged and challenged purchases of U.S. made defensive technologies. This thesis argues that both Japan and Taiwan are influenced to pursue arms acquisitions by their long-standing partnerships with the United States, as well as geopolitical security concerns especially the threat of the PRC. However, unique domestic considerations such as Japan’s antimilitarism ideology and Taiwan’s distinctive Cross-Strait relations have played significant roles in hampering arms acquisitions. When combined, these factors offer insights into the complexities of arms acquisitions and suggest that external factors have the greater influence on arms acquisitions versus internal factors., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis sought to determine the factors that have traditionally challenged effective U.S. human rights policies with China, examining U.S. preferences, policies, developments, and conditions from 1993 through 2021. This thesis investigated the efficacy of U.S. human rights policies with China according to policy makers’ prioritization of those policies, in terms of time, effort, and competing or conflicting impacts to other national interests. U.S. policy makers from the Clinton through the Obama administrations demonstrated a consistent preference to prioritize economic relations and security cooperation with China under an overarching engagement strategy at the expense of effective human rights efforts. Under Trump, however, conditions and events resulted in a major shift from the engagement policy toward a competition strategy. The major contributors to the strategy shift were (1) China’s human rights issues in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, (2) U.S. policy makers’ acknowledgement that China was growing powerful at the expense of the U.S. and that its development had not led to liberalization, and (3) Trump’s America First foreign policy tendencies, which rejected overreliance on China to achieve his national goals. U.S. human rights policies became more effective as policy makers became increasingly willing to use confrontational measures against China’s human rights issues to include imposing sanctions and passing punitive and prevention-related legislation., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

China’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) is a technology subset of the Belt and Road Initiative which represents a focal point of China’s foreign policy. It aims to create markets for Chinese tech companies, establish international technological influence, and shape technical standards favoring Chinese data practices. This thesis employs two case studies to investigate factors influencing reception to the DSR. Analyzing the overall success of the BRI in Pakistan and Malaysia provides context for understanding similarities and differences in DSR reception patterns. This thesis finds that initial BRI success in Pakistan can be attributed to geopolitical ties and economic needs, but insecurity and debt problems have dramatically stalled progress. The DSR in Pakistan saw early and sustained success due to military influence in domestic politics and the general public’s support of the initiative. In Malaysia, the BRI’s reception was influenced by Sino-Malay relations, the need for investment, and a high-profile corruption scandal. When the corruption scandal surfaced, public backlash resulted in a foundational change in Malaysian domestic politics as well as opposition to Chinese BRI investment. The DSR found early success in Malaysia’s booming digital economy, but reception waned as public sentiment toward China shifted, its political system became more democratic, and Malaysia undertook measures to diversify its technology investment, thus taking a more selective approach to the DSR.

Relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China are of critical importance to the national interests and security of the United States. Periods of increased tension have coincided with political transitions in Taiwan and are tied to relative levels of support for Taiwanese national self-determination and independence. This thesis examines the changing nature of national identity in Taiwan, from the Japanese occupation to the present. The thesis reviews historical events, policy initiatives, political rhetoric, and survey data to identify both ethnic and civic forms of nationalism present in Taiwan; ethnic nationalism is tied to a distinct common culture and heritage whereas civic nationalism is tied to shared political ideals that transcend ethnicity. The research finds that an ethnic Taiwanese identity emerged under Japanese colonial rule (1895–1945) and coalesced under the administration of the authoritarian Kuomintang (KMT) that fled the mainland in 1949. This rendered a divide between those who identified as Taiwanese and those who identified with the people of mainland China. However, following a period of rapid democratization, Taiwanese identity is becoming increasingly civic in nature, based on a shared respect for democratic ideals. This has significant implications for the prospect of reunification with the mainland where democracy is antithetical to the Chinese Communist Party., Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This research project evaluated U.S. trade and technology transfer policies with China from 2008 to 2022. It sought to identify the major drivers of these policies as well as the causal mechanisms for major shifts in these policies through an analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources. This thesis revealed that U.S. trade and technology transfer policies transitioned away from being primarily driven by free and open trade with China to being guided by U.S. economic competition and national security concerns. This transition was gradually and continuously amplified over time due to China’s unfair business tactics and illicit technology acquisitions from the U.S. As China continued to modernize, bolster its regional influence, strengthen its military, and propel its economy, the U.S. increasingly discovered China obtained key U.S. technologies and trade secrets through both open and surreptitious means. The U.S. simultaneously felt that it was losing its regional influence in the Indo-Pacific as China’s was increasing. Thus, the U.S. hardened its trade and technology transfer policies with China to preserve key U.S. technologies, maintain its regional influence, and slow China’s economic, military, and regional influence rise. Economic competition and national security became mutually reinforcing drivers of U.S. technology transfer and trade policies to the point that the veil separating the two became negligible.

In the past decade, the Philippines has reacted differently over time to China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. This thesis aims to explain the most likely causes of Philippine behavior. Using five case studies from 2012–2021, this thesis examines how the following six factors influenced resistance or accommodating behavior in the two most recent presidential administrations: trust in the U.S.–Philippine alliance, policies to protect claims, strength of China’s military capabilities, diplomatic interests, political interests, and economic interests. The thesis finds that resistance behavior is more likely to occur when there is high trust in the U.S.–Philippine alliance, a strong policy to protect claims, weak Chinese military capabilities, decreased diplomatic interests, decreased political interests, and decreased economic interests. Conversely, accommodating behavior is more likely to occur when there is low trust in the U.S.–Philippine alliance, a weak policy to protect claims, strong Chinese military capabilities, increased diplomatic interests, increased political interests, and increased economic interests. Taking these factors into account, the thesis recommends that the United States increases security and economic ties to enhance the Philippines’ confidence to push back against an asymmetric threat while also reducing the likelihood of accommodating behavior by helping the Philippines to limit its economic dependencies on China.

Historical animosities within the Republic of Korea over Japanese atrocities committed prior to and during World War II continue to be evident in many aspects of contemporary Japan-ROK relations. Reconciling historical animosities has become an important aspect of Japan-ROK relations because they present a major hurdle in developing stronger bilateral ties between two major alliance partners with the United States. This thesis examines how state-led historical narratives, national mythmaking, and the promotion of self-other identities have influenced the intergovernmental and people-to-people reconciliation process and how they are preventing deep interstate reconciliation from occurring today. This thesis finds that postwar historical narratives and national myths have solidified divergent collective memories and cultural identities within Japanese and Korean societies that have negatively impacted their ability to permanently reconcile historical animosities. Specifically, reconciliation efforts are hindered by revisionist narratives over Japan’s colonial occupation of Korea (1910–1945) as the issues of comfort women, forced labor, and territorial disputes have elevated divergent perceptions to crises of national identity. Understanding the barriers to greater reconciliation in Japan-ROK relations has implications for reconciliation’s important role in providing stability within the East Asian region that aligns with the interests of the United States.

China’s military-civil fusion (MCF) strategy has played a key role in modernizing China’s economy and military from the Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping eras and is now being relied on even more with achieving China’s national rejuvenation of establishing a fully developed country with a world-class military by 2049. This thesis seeks to examine the underlying factors driving China’s MCF strategy. This research concluded that China’s MCF strategy was highly reinforced by China’s geostrategic security concerns, state-directed industrial policy, and foreign technology transfers. Deng’s and Hu Jintao’s relatively benign threat assessments allowed them to focus more on legacy domestic policies that made China prosperous, while Jiang Zemin and Xi, on the other hand, faced multiple security pressures, which drove them to seek dual-use technologies from the high-tech private sector for military applications. This thesis also conducted a case study on China’s artificial intelligence (AI) development strategy, which revealed that China’s AI strategy was also driven in large part by geostrategic concerns. However, an equal driving force was China’s local governments as they competed against other cities in the hopes of constructing advanced cities filled with high-tech enterprises and savvy entrepreneurs., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this research project is to examine the relationship between the United States and China from 2001 to 2017 to identify key drivers behind the shift from cooperation to more competition. This project utilized primary source documents such as memoirs, approved policies, and key speeches in the Bush and Obama administrations, as well as secondary sources such as journal articles and policy research reports. This thesis finds that the U.S. and China through both administrations were able to cooperate in areas of converging interests but struggled to cooperate in areas where interests diverged. Additionally, China’s economic growth, military growth, and military modernization coupled with its more assertive posture in the South China Sea led the United States to increase its attention towards East and Southeast Asia. America’s increased focus in Asia drove more competition between the United States and China, a trend that continued beyond the Obama administration and still poses a challenge to the U.S.-China relationship today., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the main security and economic drivers for Japan’s foreign policy responses to U.S.–China competition in the Indo-Pacific region through a historical lens. First, the Cold War era is reviewed to determine the effects of Japan’s post-war status under the occupation of U.S. forces and China’s rapid rise as an economic competitor in the region. Then, the last decade is reviewed to find the trajectory and consistency of Japan’s foreign policy decisions as the U.S. and China progressively competed for hegemonic influence in the region. This thesis found that, while security drivers tended to be consistent throughout these two periods, economic drivers were more diverse because of the radically different set of circumstances Japan has faced while it developed into a more autonomous country. Japan frequently reacted to perceptions of an increasingly hostile or unstable environment and to concerns of an over-dependence on the U.S., particularly during periods where the U.S. was viewed as a potentially unreliable security partner. While Japan's responses did not have a consistent set of economic drivers, there was a common trend of fear of over-dependence on the U.S. and China at different points in time., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the drivers of the rise and fall of Sino-Soviet relations in the 1950s and 1960s. The Sino-Soviet alliance grew beyond their similar ideologies through China’s need to modernize its economy and military to face geopolitical threats. This relationship was tested throughout the 1950s with the Korean War and economic Stalinization, but military and economic factors drove the relationship forward. However, ideological differences coupled with diverging economic and military interests ultimately split the relationship between Communist China and the Soviet Union. This research focuses on the military and economic factors that drove the Sino-Soviet relationship and ultimately led to its downfall., Ahlah Deslegch, Mongolian Armed Forces, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines how the African Union (AU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have responded to China’s attempts to enhance its regional influence in Africa and Southeast Asia. I conclude that the AU is a weak institution because it lacks financial resources and management capacity to enforce desired regional norms. The thesis also finds that because of these shortcomings, China exercises a greater degree of influence in the AU. Additionally, China has set up the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) to operate as a competing framework for the region. By contrast, I find that ASEAN is a strong institution because it maintains centrality to regional issues and encourages Chinese adherence to regional norms and values. Overall, I determine that China is most successful in gaining influence when its interests align with regional goals for economic prosperity and integration, such as free trade agreements. This study discovers that when China can amplify institutional disunity, it strengthens its position relative to the existing institutions’ positions. This thesis demonstrates that China is least successful in exerting influence over a regional institution when that institution has robust mechanisms to enforce regional norms. In addition, when institutional members view China as a regional threat, they are more willing to band together and speak out against unwanted Chinese aggression., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis was written to evaluate the relative importance of ethnic, economic, and military nationalism between China and Japan over a two-year period on the subject of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island dispute. From 2010 to 2012, this ongoing dispute generated a lot of open source media that delved into the issue, from published books, to newspaper articles. What I found was the relative importance of economic over ethnic and military nationalism: the two countries fought to maintain economic stability above all else. This leads me to believe that despite these ongoing feuds, both countries realize that trade and maintaining other economic ties are far more important today than before., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this research project is to examine the relationship between the United States and China from 2001 to 2017 to identify key drivers behind the shift from cooperation to more competition. This project utilized primary source documents such as memoirs, approved policies, and key speeches in the Bush and Obama administrations, as well as secondary sources such as journal articles and policy research reports. This thesis finds that the U.S. and China through both administrations were able to cooperate in areas of converging interests but struggled to cooperate in areas where interests diverged. Additionally, China’s economic growth, military growth, and military modernization coupled with its more assertive posture in the South China Sea led the United States to increase its attention towards East and Southeast Asia. America’s increased focus in Asia drove more competition between the United States and China, a trend that continued beyond the Obama administration and still poses a challenge to the U.S.-China relationship today.

As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increasingly expanded its economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asia has specifically become one of the PRC’s regional focus areas. The PRC has emphasized increasing political relationships and economic partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Currently, the U.S. government lacks a quantitative assessment that measures the PRC’s influence in the region by assessing the behaviors of the countries in Southeast Asia. This investigation seeks to identify if the PRC’s economic investment in Southeast Asia is influencing measurable behavior. To analyze the PRC’s influence, this research uses votes from the United Nations General Assembly and economic investment data to assess the relationship between the behaviors of Southeast Asian countries and the PRC’s economic investment. The quantitative analysis of these factors finds that alignment with the PRC is stronger in poor countries when the trade balance is in the PRC’s favor; however, under the same condition in richer countries, alignment with the PRC declines. Additionally, in the absence of aid (including loans and grants), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has a negative effect; however, when there is high investment in both the BRI and aid, there is a strong alignment with the PRC., Outstanding Thesis, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis studied China’s energy security policies’ primary drivers and, more specifically, how China acquires the energy needed to satisfy its social and economic needs. This thesis examined three primary drivers of China’s energy security policies: the diversification of resources due to foreign pressures, the development of green energy, and the increase in growth and urbanization. After systematic analysis, this thesis found that China has not achieved energy independence because of an increase in growth and urbanization and heavily relies on imports to meet demands. China primarily relies on coal to fulfill its demand and lacks the domestic capability to meet its oil and natural gas demands. Air pollution and climate change are the primary motivators for China’s green energy policies, prompting China to develop modern technology in the renewable energy sector to reduce air pollution, making it the global leader in the sector. China diversifies its energy security portfolio to avoid geostrategic risks to the energy mix, such as the Malacca dilemma and uncertainty with the Strait of Hormuz. China is dependent on Australia for natural gas and on the Middle East for oil imports. China seeks to secure access to resources via pipelines from Central Asia and Russia to avoid security issues in the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz.

This thesis examines the main drivers of U.S. policy toward North Korea’s nuclear weapons program from 1992 until the present. The thesis has found that there were four main drivers of American policy toward North Korea during each presidential administration examined. The United States’ regional allies—Japan and South Korea—have been concerned about the threats posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and they have made several attempts to negotiate the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in the conjunction with the United States. Allies’ concerns about a potential conflict, however, have led them to call on the United States to show restraint in the use of military force and economic pressure toward North Korea. China’s economic leverage over the DPRK and Beijing’s insistence on preventing the United States from imposing harsher economic sanctions on North Korea presented challenges throughout the presidential administrations. North Korea’s insistence on furthering its nuclear weapons program by continuing to defy the international order presents difficulties for the United States to achieve the goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. This thesis provides two future policy recommendations for the United States to engage with North Korea—adopt either an option of appeasement that centers on diplomacy or an option of pressure that relies on a combination of coercive strategies to successfully achieve the goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The strategic ambiguity inherent in the United States’ One-China policy toward China and Taiwan is largely derived from three joint communiques, the Taiwan Relations Act, President Ronald Reagan’s Six Assurances, and subsequent presidential statements. The geostrategic environment has changed substantially in the intervening period, with the rise of China and its aggressive behavior leading to a more adversarial U.S.-China relationship and a new era of great power competition. In this new environment, this thesis asks: Is the United States’ One-China policy still the best approach to China and Taiwan? After defining the components of the United States’ One-China policy, this thesis analyzes the three primary policy options: 1) abandon commitments to Taiwan, 2) double-down on the commitments to Taiwan, and 3) maintain the status quo. Through systematic analysis, this thesis draws three primary conclusions. First, the relative economic and military power dominance of the United States, coupled with the importance of credibility to regional alliances, render an abandonment of commitments to be unjustified and dangerous. Second, doubling-down on commitments is unnecessarily provocative to a core interest of China, especially considering the formidable defense already possessed by Taiwan. Finally, maintaining the status quo through a careful adherence of the One-China policy remains the best policy option for the United States., Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

World War II reshaped the world order, and U.S. involvement in that war was the result of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Recently, China has been expanding its sphere of influence and pushing against that of the United States. This thesis analyzes the U.S.–Japanese relationship prior to World War II, focusing on Japanese militarism, economic tensions, and racism and mistrust in order to examine the current relationship between China and the United States and to determine the likelihood of another war. However, where Japan was accustomed to using military force to achieve its political and economic objectives, China is not. Rather, as the Chinese economy is interconnected with that of its rivals, China has sought to expand its influence through economic means, making the possibility of another large-scale war less likely than it was with Japan., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Over the past thirty years, China has published various national plans and policies to foster science and technology innovation, with an emphasis on fostering an indigenous innovation capacity since the mid-2000s. In particular, these efforts include industrial policies to grow the role of private enterprises in spurring innovation as well as shifting the orientation of its education system away from instruction and lecture and towards fostering curiosity and the development of scientific inquiry. Using Chinese innovation policies as a starting point, this thesis qualitatively assesses the impacts and effectiveness of these policies at fostering innovation. It finds that on the one hand, Chinese efforts to increase activities that are consistent with innovative behavior are demonstrating some success. In particular, larger private technology firms have begun developing their own in-house research capability. Additionally, the development of an inquiry-based education system as well as the increased production of scientists and engineers could bode well for the future of Chinese research. On the other hand, China’s splitting of the research and development roles between the education system and industry, respectively, has created bottlenecks in the supply of both knowledge and technologies crucial to the development of S&T innovation. This lag has prolonged China’s reliance on exogenous sources of core technologies rather than developing an indigenous capacity to innovate., http://archive.org/details/evaluatingchinas1094564897, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Is there a significant generational difference among South Koreans? If so, how do South Korean generations differ in their perceptions regarding national security? This thesis examines how historical experiences generate a cohort effect on certain age groups in South Korea (Republic of Korea [ROK]), and how these specific cohort effects develop generational differences. Four generations that have unique tendencies and characteristics are identified through cohort experience analysis. The New Generation, those in their 20s and 30s in South Korean society, has anti-North Korean, pro-American, pro-autonomy tendencies. The Democratic Generation, those in their 40s, has pro-North Korean, anti-American, pro-autonomy tendencies. The Transition/386 Generation, those in their 50s, has pro-North Korean, anti-American, anti-autonomy tendencies. Lastly, the War Generation, those in their 60s and older, has anti-North Korean, pro-American, anti-autonomy tendencies. These four generations are then tested using available public-opinion poll data to confirm their expected perceptions on numerous issues regarding 1) North Korea, 2) the United States, and 3) ROK national autonomy—independent from the U.S. influence. The public opinion poll data largely confirm the expected outcome, concluding that the generational characteristics and differences in South Korea could influence the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance.

This thesis examines the impacts of national identity, cross-strait economic relations, and the security threat of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Taiwan's relationship with mainland China since 2000. Analyzing primary sources and academic analyses on both the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administrations, this thesis argues that Taiwan's national identity has moderated its political elites to implement policies that would otherwise excessively challenge Taiwan's de facto sovereignty status. From an economic standpoint, Taiwan has shown to consistently establish close economic ties with the mainland to bolster its prospects in the global market. On the role of national security, the island has steadily refined its defense strategy and invested in its military to contest the expanding security threat from the PLA. In observation of these findings, this thesis predicts that in the near term, Taiwan's two main opposing political parties, the KMT and the DPP, will both increasingly adopt a centrist view toward its mainland policies, asserting its de facto sovereignty status and continuing to resist the mainland's pressure for unification. Based on past trends, Taiwan will likely continue to maintain its economic ties with the mainland and remain committed to its national defense in order to deter and defend against the PLA.

As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increasingly expanded its economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asia has specifically become one of the PRC’s regional focus areas. The PRC has emphasized increasing political relationships and economic partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Currently, the U.S. government lacks a quantitative assessment that measures the PRC’s influence in the region by assessing the behaviors of the countries in Southeast Asia. This investigation seeks to identify if the PRC’s economic investment in Southeast Asia is influencing measurable behavior. To analyze the PRC’s influence, this research uses votes from the United Nations General Assembly and economic investment data to assess the relationship between the behaviors of Southeast Asian countries and the PRC’s economic investment. The quantitative analysis of these factors finds that alignment with the PRC is stronger in poor countries when the trade balance is in the PRC’s favor; however, under the same condition in richer countries, alignment with the PRC declines. Additionally, in the absence of aid (including loans and grants), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has a negative effect; however, when there is high investment in both the BRI and aid, there is a strong alignment with the PRC.

This thesis studies the relationship of Japan–South Korea and Argentina–Chile to seek means to improve future U.S. security cooperation in East Asia. By approaching the Japan–South Korea case from the post-war period, I develop the points of friction that inhibit their improved relations, from historical conflicts, military-to-military relations, and economic interactions. By examining these points of tension, I explore how each factor is linked and why there are certain restrictions on interactions between Japan and South Korea. I examine comparable sources of tension in the Chile and Argentina case—namely memories of historical conflicts, political stability, and trade relations—to find out how Chile and Argentina were able to lessen tensions and develop more cooperative relations. The research found that when approaching the Japan–South Korea relationship, third-party intervention will be the viable choice to achieving sustained relations. Additionally, the use of confidence-building measures (CBMs) with the Japanese–South Korean relationship will support U.S. security cooperation in East Asia. The study notes that CBMs will take time to develop better relations between Japan and South Korea; however, the expectation is that as the partnership grows, CBMs will build trust and meaningful present-day interactions that will eventually overshadow past atrocities., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The United States and China are engaged in great power competition following a period of relative cooperation. Understanding how states transition to great power competition is important for revealing the catalyst of competition and mitigating the potential for great power conflict. The United States’ relationship with post–World War II Japan offers an apt historical comparison from which to observe a similar competitive transition. It also indicates the means by which competition can transition back toward cooperation. The primary time frame for the historical comparison is 1980–2000 for U.S.-Japan competition and 2000–2018 for the Sino-American competition. This thesis finds that both bilateral relationships offer examples of how economic near-peer competition initiates the transition to great power competition with security and political-ideological consequences. The outcome of those security and political-ideological consequences differs in the two cases due to their respective circumstances. Both, however, reveal a cycle of grievance and negotiation between the competing states. Each case also shows that competition can be mitigated through dialogue, engagement, and negotiation., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is China’s development plan to build infrastructure on a massive scale across Asia, Europe, and Africa. As President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative, the BRI seeks to reinvent the ancient Silk Road by facilitating connectivity and development in addition to securing China’s growing need for resources. China faces numerous challenges in successfully implementing these projects and achieving its goals. This thesis examines and analyzes the challenges that China faces in two important cases: Pakistan and Sri Lanka. China has experienced a wide range of challenges across the political, economic, and security spectrum in successfully implementing the BRI. Violent militancy, civil unrest, environmental destruction, corruption, and the international perception of China and the BRI are the paramount issues China confronts in successfully achieving its interests. How China is able to adapt to these prolific challenges will determine the scope and scale in which China is able to continue implementing the BRI worldwide., http://archive.org/details/securingthebelta1094564004, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

In the last decade, China and India have risen to prominence in the Indo-Pacific region, requiring U.S. policymakers, subject matter experts, and military officials to shift their attention toward understanding this critical relationship. The maintenance and stability of the Indo-Pacific region depend on the dynamics of the Sino-Indian relationship. Thus, a better understanding of Sino-Indian relations can have significant implications for how the U.S. strategy progresses in the Indo-Pacific region. First, to understand the 21st-century Sino-Indian relationship, this thesis analyzed the factors that led to cooperation and discord between China and India during the 1950s and early 1960s, which culminated in the 1962 border war. Second, the thesis analyzed Sino-Indian relations from 2008–2017, identifying whether factors from the 1950s and early 1960s apply to current and future Sino-Indian relations. Despite the nuances that mark both periods, the 21st-century Sino-Indian relationship has followed a similar path of cooperation, competition, and conflict, which culminated in the 2017 Doklam standoff—the longest border standoff since the 1962 border war. Overall, across both periods, this thesis found that unresolved territorial disputes, competition for energy resources, a race for regional influence, and assertive leadership have hindered cooperation. Extrapolating from the research, these factors will likely continue, creating a rocky way ahead for the Indo-Pacific region., http://archive.org/details/sinoindianrelati1094562788, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the nuclear motivations of three states (Japan, India, and Pakistan) and asks whether Japan may acquire nuclear weapons moving forward. The analysis found that, for Japan, nuclear restraint stemmed from U.S. security guarantees, which supplemented a mercantilist national strategy. With Japan secure, the country could pursue an economic policy, which made nuclear acquisition costly and counterproductive. India’s nuclear acquisition, on the other hand, was driven both by desire to acquire international status and underlying security concerns from two hostile, nuclear-armed neighbors: China and Pakistan. Lastly, Pakistan’s nuclear acquisition was motivated by security concerns, namely a deep distrust and antagonism toward a conventionally superior India, which it viewed as an existential threat. Pakistan initially sought security through alliances; however, the failure of those alliances to assist Pakistan at critical junctures convinced Pakistan to acquire nuclear weapons to ensure its survival. The thesis concludes that reducing a state’s proclivity for nuclear acquisition requires addressing security concerns and grievances related to status and economic well-being. Thus, while it is unlikely Japan will consider nuclear acquisition in the near term, the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance is an essential component to ensuring that Japan’s nuclear motivations remain weak., http://archive.org/details/japanandthebombp1094563489, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Existing literature on the topic of a potential Korean reunification focuses primarily on three major areas of concern: the impact to regional and international security, fiscal costs analysis, and anticipation of various reunification scenarios. Assuming a unification under Seoul’s guidance, this thesis will seek to bridge a gap that exists in the field by examining the likely social implications of reunification on the Korean peninsula. It will argue that despite the similarities in culture, language, historical legacies, and ethnic roots, two particular sets of social issues—population migration and social discrimination—will prove to be more divisive and socially costly than those similar issues experienced in the aftermath of the German reunification. This thesis will conclude that seven decades of separation has created two vastly contradictory and incompatible Korean societies that will make the social integration of the two Koreas as sensitive, challenging, and complex as the more often debated security and economic repercussions. As such, the potential social implications should be discussed on an equal footing with security and economic consequences of the Korean reunification.

Chinese policy, both internally and internationally, is overwhelmingly concerned with sustaining economic development, which is significantly dependent upon overseas trade, in order to ensure social stability and government legitimacy. China’s strategy encompasses not only the economic investment of the Belt and Road Initiative but also the political and military aspects. This thesis considers the impact these kinds of Chinese actions may have on India and Myanmar, which also have a strong interest in the security of Indian Ocean trade. David’s theory of omnibalancing was used to assess the aspects of national power utilized by the Chinese Indian Ocean strategy. This thesis finds that the military aspect of Chinese strategy in the Indian Ocean has influenced India to balance against China while not necessarily committing to potential closer ties with the United States. Additionally, the military and political aspects of Chinese strategy in the Indian Ocean have drawn Myanmar closer, while the economic aspects of China’s strategy have made Myanmar more cautious, causing it to hedge between the competing strategies of China and the United States. These findings suggest that the United States should focus on moderate actions toward China within the reassurance-dissuasion spectrum, seeking areas of cooperation that could decrease misunderstandings, and pursuing active denial by strengthening relations and partnerships between the United States and other Asian countries.

The Tuareg insurgency in Mali has its roots in the colonial period. However, the insurgency worsened when Mali became independent in 1960. This insurgency was characterized by four main periods. The first rebellion came in 1963, the second rebellion in 1990, the third rebellion came in 1996, and the last one was in 2012, where the Tuaregs again attacked the Malian troops. This thesis argues that developmental policies and military engagement in the northern region were the most significant factors that contributed to the recurrence of the Tuareg insurgency in Mali. However, there are other minor factors, such as the economic difficulties, the emergence of drug trafficking, the weak governance, the decentralization, social collapse, and regional dynamics, that also contributed to the resurgence of the conflict. This thesis stresses that domestic management of the crisis played a more significant role than the external factors. It is crucial for the Mali government to establish secure borders and a secure internal environment in the northern region before instituting any developmental policies. For this reason, the Malian state needs a strong army to prevent malicious actors from entering the region and obstructing the objective of peace. Also, it needs to always pursue and sign realistic agreements.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the biggest infrastructure project in the world today. This thesis examines what factors are behind some states being supportive of the BRI and other states pushing back against it. This thesis explored three case studies—Pakistan, Australia, and Mongolia. In each case, the BRI’s economic, cultural, geopolitical, and security implications were investigated. This thesis reveals that countries that gain economic benefits from BRI are mostly supportive of it, though they have misgivings in the geopolitical and security realms. On the other hand, countries, such as Mongolia and Australia, that are prioritizing geopolitical calculations have a tendency to keep strategic ambiguity. Mongolia and Pakistan are especially concerned about the BRI bringing them long-term financial burdens. There are worries about the BRI harming the geopolitical balance and the countries’ relationships with other regional powers. Cultural aspects such Sinophobia among the Mongolian and Australian society are playing a negative role. Overall, this thesis finds that countries respond to China’s BRI based on their own security, economic, cultural, and geopolitical interests.

Current academic literature is replete with analyses on the return of great power competition due to China’s rise. One area of concern among policy makers has been China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative (BRI) and its impact on global security. This thesis examines India and Pakistan’s reactions to China’s BRI through analysis of political, economic, and geostrategic factors. India’s non-support for the BRI stems from the perception that the BRI poses a direct threat to the rules-based international system and its own aspirations to become the South Asian region’s dominant power. Conversely, Pakistan supports and has actively engaged in the BRI to counter a growing India and to increase its national power to achieve that end., http://archive.org/details/indiapakistanand1094562779, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility., http://archive.org/details/theextentofchine1094561258, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility.

This thesis examines the impacts of national identity, cross-strait economic relations, and the security threat of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Taiwan's relationship with mainland China since 2000. Analyzing primary sources and academic analyses on both the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administrations, this thesis argues that Taiwan's national identity has moderated its political elites to implement policies that would otherwise excessively challenge Taiwan's de facto sovereignty status. From an economic standpoint, Taiwan has shown to consistently establish close economic ties with the mainland to bolster its prospects in the global market. On the role of national security, the island has steadily refined its defense strategy and invested in its military to contest the expanding security threat from the PLA. In observation of these findings, this thesis predicts that in the near term, Taiwan's two main opposing political parties, the KMT and the DPP, will both increasingly adopt a centrist view toward its mainland policies, asserting its de facto sovereignty status and continuing to resist the mainland's pressure for unification. Based on past trends, Taiwan will likely continue to maintain its economic ties with the mainland and remain committed to its national defense in order to deter and defend against the PLA., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the biggest infrastructure project in the world today. This thesis examines what factors are behind some states being supportive of the BRI and other states pushing back against it. This thesis explored three case studies—Pakistan, Australia, and Mongolia. In each case, the BRI’s economic, cultural, geopolitical, and security implications were investigated. This thesis reveals that countries that gain economic benefits from BRI are mostly supportive of it, though they have misgivings in the geopolitical and security realms. On the other hand, countries, such as Mongolia and Australia, that are prioritizing geopolitical calculations have a tendency to keep strategic ambiguity. Mongolia and Pakistan are especially concerned about the BRI bringing them long-term financial burdens. There are worries about the BRI harming the geopolitical balance and the countries’ relationships with other regional powers. Cultural aspects such Sinophobia among the Mongolian and Australian society are playing a negative role. Overall, this thesis finds that countries respond to China’s BRI based on their own security, economic, cultural, and geopolitical interests., http://archive.org/details/whatfactorsarebe1094564147, Captain, Mongolian Armed Forces, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.