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Background: Safe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly. Methods: We projected district-level Ebola virus disease incidence for the next 6 months, using a stochastic model fitted to data from Sierra Leone. We then simulated RCT and SWCT designs in trial populations comprising geographically distinct clusters at high risk, taking into account realistic logistical constraints, and both individual-level and cluster-level variations in risk. We assessed false-positive rates and power for parametric and non-parametric analyses of simulated trial data, across a range of vaccine efficacies and trial start dates. Findings: For an SWCT, regional variation in Ebola virus disease incidence trends produced increased false-positive rates (up to 0·15 at α=0·05) under standard statistical models, but not when analysed by a permutation test, whereas analyses of RCTs remained statistically valid under all models. With the assumption of a 6-month trial starting on Feb 18, 2015, we estimate the power to detect a 90% effective vaccine to be between 49% and 89% for an RCT, and between 6% and 26% for an SWCT, depending on the Ebola virus disease incidence within the trial population. We estimate that a 1-month delay in trial initiation will reduce the power of the RCT by 20% and that of the SWCT by 49%. Interpretation: Spatiotemporal variation in infection risk undermines the statistical power of the SWCT. This variation also undercuts the SWCT's expected ethical advantages over the RCT, because an RCT, but not an SWCT, can prioritise vaccination of high-risk clusters. Funding: US National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

Abstract Background Contact network models have become increasingly common in epidemiology, but we lack a flexible programming framework for the generation and analysis of epidemiological contact networks and for the simulation of disease transmission through such networks. Results Here we present EpiFire, an applications programming interface and graphical user interface implemented in C++, which includes a fast and efficient library for generating, analyzing and manipulating networks. Network-based percolation and chain-binomial simulations of susceptible-infected-recovered disease transmission, as well as traditional non-network mass-action simulations, can be performed using EpiFire. Conclusions EpiFire provides an open-source programming interface for the rapid development of network models with a focus in contact network epidemiology. EpiFire also provides a point-and-click interface for generating networks, conducting epidemic simulations, and creating figures. This interface is particularly useful as a pedagogical tool.

Abstract Background Much remains unknown about the effect of timing and prioritization of vaccination against pandemic (pH1N1) 2009 virus on health outcomes. We adapted a city-level contact network model to study different campaigns on influenza morbidity and mortality. Methods We modeled different distribution strategies initiated between July and November 2009 using a compartmental epidemic model that includes age structure and transmission network dynamics. The model represents the Greater Vancouver Regional District, a major North American city and surrounding suburbs with a population of 2 million, and is parameterized using data from the British Columbia Ministry of Health, published studies, and expert opinion. Outcomes are expressed as the number of infections and deaths averted due to vaccination. Results The model output was consistent with provincial surveillance data. Assuming a basic reproduction number = 1.4, an 8-week vaccination campaign initiated 2 weeks before the epidemic onset reduced morbidity and mortality by 79-91% and 80-87%, respectively, compared to no vaccination. Prioritizing children and parents for vaccination may have reduced transmission compared to actual practice, but the mortality benefit of this strategy appears highly sensitive to campaign timing. Modeling the actual late October start date resulted in modest reductions in morbidity and mortality (13-25% and 16-20%, respectively) with little variation by prioritization scheme. Conclusion Delays in vaccine production due to technological or logistical barriers may reduce potential benefits of vaccination for pandemic influenza, and these temporal effects can outweigh any additional theoretical benefits from population targeting. Careful modeling may provide decision makers with estimates of these effects before the epidemic peak to guide production goals and inform policy. Integration of real-time surveillance data with mathematical models holds the promise of enabling public health planners to optimize the community benefits from proposed interventions before the pandemic peak.

Abstract Background The trajectory of an infectious disease outbreak is affected by the behavior of individuals, and the behavior is often related to individuals' risk perception. We assessed temporal changes and geographical differences in risk perceptions and precautionary behaviors in response to H1N1 influenza. Methods 1,290 US adults completed an online survey on risk perceptions, interests in pharmaceutical interventions (preventive intervention and curative intervention), and engagement in precautionary activities (information seeking activities and taking quarantine measures) in response to H1N1 influenza between April 28 and May 27 2009. Associations of risk perceptions and precautionary behaviors with respondents' sex, age, and household size were analyzed. Linear and quadratic time trends were assessed by regression analyses. Geographic differences in risk perception and precautionary behaviors were evaluated. Predictors of willingness to take pharmaceutical intervention were analyzed. Results Respondents from larger households reported stronger interest in taking medications and engaged in more precautionary activities, as would be normatively predicted. Perceived risk increased over time, whereas interest in pharmaceutical preventive interventions and the engagement in some precautionary activities decreased over time. Respondents who live in states with higher H1N1 incidence per population perceived a higher likelihood of influenza infection, but did not express greater interests in pharmaceutical interventions, nor did they engage in a higher degree of precautionary activities. Perceived likelihood of influenza infection, willingness to take medications and engagement in information seeking activities were higher for women than men. Conclusions Perceived risk of infection and precautionary behavior can be dynamic in time, and differ by demographic characteristics and geographical locations. These patterns will likely influence the effectiveness of disease control measures.

Abstract Background Complex biological systems are often modeled as networks of interacting units. Networks of biochemical interactions among proteins, epidemiological contacts among hosts, and trophic interactions in ecosystems, to name a few, have provided useful insights into the dynamical processes that shape and traverse these systems. The degrees of nodes (numbers of interactions) and the extent of clustering (the tendency for a set of three nodes to be interconnected) are two of many well-studied network properties that can fundamentally shape a system. Disentangling the interdependent effects of the various network properties, however, can be difficult. Simple network models can help us quantify the structure of empirical networked systems and understand the impact of various topological properties on dynamics. Results Here we develop and implement a new Markov chain simulation algorithm to generate simple, connected random graphs that have a specified degree sequence and level of clustering, but are random in all other respects. The implementation of the algorithm (ClustRNet: Clustered Random Networks) provides the generation of random graphs optimized according to a local or global, and relative or absolute measure of clustering. We compare our algorithm to other similar methods and show that ours more successfully produces desired network characteristics. Finding appropriate null models is crucial in bioinformatics research, and is often difficult, particularly for biological networks. As we demonstrate, the networks generated by ClustRNet can serve as random controls when investigating the impacts of complex network features beyond the byproduct of degree and clustering in empirical networks. Conclusion ClustRNet generates ensembles of graphs of specified edge structure and clustering. These graphs allow for systematic study of the impacts of connectivity and redundancies on network function and dynamics. This process is a key step in unraveling the functional consequences of the structural properties of empirical biological systems and uncovering the mechanisms that drive these systems.

On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2 nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5 th most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change., (© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

The effects of immunodeficiency associated with chronic HIV infection on COVID-19 disease and viral persistence have not been directly addressed in a controlled setting. In this pilot study, we exposed two pigtail macaques (PTMs) chronically infected with SIVmac239, exhibiting from very low to no CD4 T cells across all compartments, to SARS-CoV-2. We monitored the disease progression, viral replication, and evolution, and compared these outcomes with SIV-naïve PTMs infected with SARS-CoV-2. No overt signs of COVID-19 disease were observed in either animal, and the SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and evolution in the SIVmac239 PTMs were indistinguishable from those in the SIV-naïve PTMs in all sampled mucosal sites. However, the single-cell RNA sequencing of bronchoalveolar lavage cells revealed an infiltration of functionally inert monocytes after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Critically, neither of the SIV-infected PTMs mounted detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 T-cell responses nor anti-SARS-CoV-2 binding or neutralizing antibodies. Thus, HIV-induced immunodeficiency alone may not be sufficient to drive the emergence of novel viral variants but may remove the ability of infected individuals to mount adaptive immune responses against SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform evidence-based public health guidance and policies. Here, we discuss requirements for an effective surveillance system to support decision making during a pandemic, drawing on the lessons of COVID-19 in the U.S., while looking to jurisdictions in the U.S. and beyond to learn lessons about the value of specific data types. In this report, we define the range of decisions for which surveillance data are required, the data elements needed to inform these decisions and to calibrate inputs and outputs of transmission-dynamic models, and the types of data needed to inform decisions by state, territorial, local, and tribal health authorities. We define actions needed to ensure that such data will be available and consider the contribution of such efforts to improving health equity., Competing Interests: RS was employed by company Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics. JV was employed by company SIGA Technologies. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Lipsitch, Bassett, Brownstein, Elliott, Eyre, Grabowski, Hay, Johansson, Kissler, Larremore, Layden, Lessler, Lynfield, MacCannell, Madoff, Metcalf, Meyers, Ofori, Quinn, Bento, Reich, Riley, Rosenfeld, Samore, Sampath, Slayton, Swerdlow, Truelove, Varma and Grad.)

Although the global conversion of wildlife habitat to built environments often has negative impacts on biodiversity, some wildlife species have the ability to cope by living in human-made structures. However, the determinants of this adaptation on a global scale are not well understood and may signify species with unique conservation needs at the human-wildlife interface. Here, we identify the trait profile associated with anthropogenic roosting in bats globally and characterize the evolution of this phenotype using an original dataset of roosting behavior developed across 1,279 extant species. Trait-based analyses showed that anthropogenic roosting is predictable across bats and is associated with larger geographic ranges, habitat generalism, temperate zone distributions, small litter and body size, and insectivory. We identified moderate phylogenetic signal in this complex trait profile, which has undergone both gains and losses across bat evolution and for which speciation rates are lower compared to natural roosting bats., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024 The Authors.)

School reopenings in 2021 and 2022 coincided with the rapid emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States. In-school mitigation efforts varied, depending on local COVID-19 mandates and resources. Using a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we estimate the impacts of multiple in-school strategies on both infection rates and absenteeism, relative to a baseline scenario in which only symptomatic cases are tested and positive tests trigger a 10-day isolation of the case and 10-day quarantine of their household and classroom. We find that monthly asymptomatic screening coupled with the 10-day isolation and quarantine period is expected to avert 55.4% of infections while increasing absenteeism by 104.3%. Replacing quarantine with test-to-stay would reduce absenteeism by 66.3% (while hardly impacting infection rates), but would require roughly 10-fold more testing resources. Alternatively, vaccination or mask wearing by 50% of the student body is expected to avert 54.1% or 43.1% of infections while decreasing absenteeism by 34.1% or 27.4%, respectively. Separating students into classrooms based on mask usage is expected to reduce infection risks among those who wear masks (by 23.1%), exacerbate risks among those who do not (by 27.8%), but have little impact on overall risk. A combined strategy of monthly screening, household and classroom quarantine, a 50% vaccination rate, and a 50% masking rate (in mixed classrooms) is expected to avert 81.7% of infections while increasing absenteeism by 90.6%. During future public health emergencies, such analyses can inform the rapid design of resource-constrained strategies that mitigate both public health and educational risks., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval)., Methods and Findings: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths., Conclusions: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year., Competing Interests: JE is president of General Biodefense LLC, a private consulting group for public health informatics, and has interest in READE.ai, a medical artificial intelligence solutions company. MR reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co., which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID-19 testing, vaccination, and treatment. JL has served as an expert witness on cases where the likely length of the pandemic was of issue. The remaining authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2024 Jung et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Paxlovid, a SARS-CoV-2 antiviral, not only prevents severe illness but also curtails viral shedding, lowering transmission risks from treated patients. By fitting a mathematical model of within-host Omicron viral dynamics to electronic health records data from 208 hospitalized patients in Hong Kong, we estimate that Paxlovid can inhibit over 90% of viral replication. However, its effectiveness critically depends on the timing of treatment. If treatment is initiated three days after symptoms first appear, we estimate a 17% chance of a post-treatment viral rebound and a 12% (95% CI: 0-16%) reduction in overall infectiousness for non-rebound cases. Earlier treatment significantly elevates the risk of rebound without further reducing infectiousness, whereas starting beyond five days reduces its efficacy in curbing peak viral shedding. Among the 104 patients who received Paxlovid, 62% began treatment within an optimal three-to-five-day day window after symptoms appeared. Our findings indicate that broader global access to Paxlovid, coupled with appropriately timed treatment, can mitigate the severity and transmission of SARS-Cov-2., Competing Interests: ZD, YB, EL employee of Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, LW, YL, AG, RK, LM No competing interests declared, BC reports honoraria from AstraZeneca, Fosun Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline, Moderna, Pfizer,Sanofi Pasteur, and Roche; employee of Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited; the authors report no other potential conflicts of interest, (© 2024, Du, Wang, Bai et al.)

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in policy, shifts in behavior, and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants spurred multiple waves of transmission. Accurate assessments of the changing risks were vital for ensuring adequate healthcare capacity, designing mitigation strategies, and communicating effectively with the public. Here, we introduce a model of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination that provided rapid and reliable projections as the BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 variants emerged and spread across the US. For example, our three-week ahead national projection of the early 2021 peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations was only one day later and 11.6-13.3% higher than the actual peak, while our projected peak in mortality was two days earlier and 0.22-4.7% higher than reported. We track population-level immunity from prior infections and vaccination in terms of the percent reduction in overall susceptibility relative to a completely naive population. As of October 1, 2022, we estimate that the US population had a 36.52% reduction in overall susceptibility to the BA.4/BA.5 variants, with 61.8%, 15.06%, and 23.54% of immunity attributable to infections, primary series vaccination, and booster vaccination, respectively. We retrospectively projected the potential impact of expanding booster coverage starting on July 15, 2022, and found that a five-fold increase in weekly boosting rates would have resulted in 70% of people over 65 vaccinated by Oct 10, 2022 and averted 25,000 (95% CI: 14,400-35,700) deaths during the BA.4/BA.5 surge. Our model provides coherent variables for tracking population-level immunity in the increasingly complex landscape of variants and vaccines and enables robust simulations of plausible scenarios for the emergence and mitigation of novel COVID variants., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest We declare that the manuscript is original, has not been published before, and is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere. We know of no conflicts of interest associated with this publication. As Corresponding Author, I confirm that the manuscript has been read and approved for submission by all authors., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03-0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62-$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36-1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49-$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.

We devised a model to interpret discordant SARS-CoV-2 test results. We estimate that, during March 2020-May 2022, a patient in the United States who received a positive rapid antigen test result followed by a negative nucleic acid test result had only a 15.4% (95% CI 0.6%-56.7%) chance of being infected.

Colleges and universities in the US struggled to provide safe in-person education throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Testing coupled with isolation is a nimble intervention strategy that can be tailored to mitigate the changing health and economic risks associated with SARS-CoV-2. We developed a decision-support tool to aid in the design of university-based screening strategies using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Applying this framework to a large public university reopening in the fall of 2021 with a 60% student vaccination rate, we find that the optimal strategy, in terms of health and economic costs, is twice weekly antigen testing of all students. This strategy provides a 95% guarantee that, throughout the fall semester, case counts would not exceed twice the CDC's original high transmission threshold of 100 cases per 100k persons over 7 days. As the virus and our medical armament continue to evolve, testing will remain a flexible tool for managing risks and keeping campuses open. We have implemented this model as an online tool to facilitate the design of testing strategies that adjust for COVID-19 conditions as well as campus-specific populations, resources, and priorities., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

China announced a slight easing of its zero-COVID rules on November 11, 2022, and then a major relaxation on December 7, 2022. We estimate that the ensuing wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused 1.41 million deaths in China during December 2022-February 2023, substantially higher than that reported through official channels.

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.

Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit-reducing susceptibility-has been established across multiple studies, while the second-reducing infectivity-is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8-53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4-40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8-77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted individuals depending on where they live and work, and based on their race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Studies have documented catastrophic disparities at critical points throughout the pandemic, but have not yet systematically tracked their severity through time. Using anonymized hospitalization data from March 11, 2020 to June 1, 2021 and fine-grain infection hospitalization rates, we estimate the time-varying burden of COVID-19 by age group and ZIP code in Austin, Texas. During this 15-month period, we estimate an overall 23.7% (95% CrI: 22.5-24.8%) infection rate and 29.4% (95% CrI: 28.0-31.0%) case reporting rate. Individuals over 65 were less likely to be infected than younger age groups (11.2% [95% CrI: 10.3-12.0%] vs 25.1% [95% CrI: 23.7-26.4%]), but more likely to be hospitalized (1,965 per 100,000 vs 376 per 100,000) and have their infections reported (53% [95% CrI: 49-57%] vs 28% [95% CrI: 27-30%]). We used a mixed effect poisson regression model to estimate disparities in infection and reporting rates as a function of social vulnerability. We compared ZIP codes ranking in the 75th percentile of vulnerability to those in the 25th percentile, and found that the more vulnerable communities had 2.5 (95% CrI: 2.0-3.0) times the infection rate and only 70% (95% CrI: 60%-82%) the reporting rate compared to the less vulnerable communities. Inequality persisted but declined significantly over the 15-month study period. Our results suggest that further public health efforts are needed to mitigate local COVID-19 disparities and that the CDC's social vulnerability index may serve as a reliable predictor of risk on a local scale when surveillance data are limited., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

As SARS-CoV-2 emerged as a global threat in early 2020, China enacted rapid and strict lockdown orders to prevent introductions and suppress transmission. In contrast, the United States federal government did not enact national orders. State and local authorities were left to make rapid decisions based on limited case data and scientific information to protect their communities. To support local decision making in early 2020, we developed a model for estimating the probability of an undetected COVID-19 epidemic (epidemic risk) in each US county based on the epidemiological characteristics of the virus and the number of confirmed and suspected cases. As a retrospective analysis we included county-specific reproduction numbers and found that counties with only a single reported case by March 16, 2020 had a mean epidemic risk of 71% (95% CI: 52-83%), implying COVID-19 was already spreading widely by the first detected case. By that date, 15% of US counties covering 63% of the population had reported at least one case and had epidemic risk greater than 50%. We find that a 10% increase in model estimated epidemic risk for March 16 yields a 0.53 (95% CI: 0.49-0.58) increase in the log odds that the county reported at least two additional cases in the following week. The original epidemic risk estimates made on March 16, 2020 that assumed all counties had an effective reproduction number of 3.0 are highly correlated with our retrospective estimates (r = 0.99; p<0.001) but are less predictive of subsequent case increases (AIC difference of 93.3 and 100% weight in favor of the retrospective risk estimates). Given the low rates of testing and reporting early in the pandemic, taking action upon the detection of just one or a few cases may be prudent., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Javan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

In response to COVID-19, schools across the United States closed in early 2020; many did not fully reopen until late 2021. Although regular testing of asymptomatic students, teachers, and staff can reduce transmission risks, few school systems consistently used proactive testing to safeguard return to classrooms. Socioeconomically diverse public school districts might vary testing levels across campuses to ensure fair, effective use of limited resources. We describe a test allocation approach to reduce overall infections and disparities across school districts. Using a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools fit to data from a large metropolitan school district in Texas, we reduced incidence between the highest and lowest risk schools from a 5.6-fold difference under proportional test allocation to 1.8-fold difference under our optimized test allocation. This approach provides a roadmap to help school districts deploy proactive testing and mitigate risks of future SARS-CoV-2 variants and other pathogen threats.

We estimated the probability of undetected emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in 25 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) prior to December 5, 2021. In nine countries, the risk exceeds 50 %; in Turkey, Pakistan and the Philippines, it exceeds 99 %. Risks are generally lower in the Americas than Europe or Asia., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has displaced more than a quarter of the population. Assessing disease burdens among displaced people is instrumental in informing global public health and humanitarian aid efforts. We estimated the disease burden in Ukrainians displaced both within Ukraine and to other countries by combining a spatiotemporal model of forcible displacement with age- and gender-specific estimates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, cancer, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in each of Ukraine's 629 raions (i.e., districts). Among displaced Ukrainians as of May 13, we estimated that more than 2.63 million have CVDs, at least 615,000 have diabetes, and over 98,500 have cancer. In addition, more than 86,000 forcibly displaced individuals are living with HIV, and approximately 13,500 have TB. We estimated that the disease prevalence among refugees was lower than the national disease prevalence before the invasion. Accounting for internal displacement and healthcare facilities impacted by the conflict, we estimated that the number of people per hospital has increased by more than two-fold in some areas. As regional healthcare systems come under increasing strain, these estimates can inform the allocation of critical resources under shifting disease burdens.

Introduction: ARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory pathogen currently causing a worldwide pandemic, with resulting pathology of differing severity in humans, from mild illness to severe disease and death. The rhesus macaque model of COVID-19 was utilized to evaluate the added benefit of prophylactic administration of human post-SARS-CoV-2 infection convalescent plasma (CP) on disease progression and severity., Methods: A pharmacokinetic (PK) study using CP in rhesus monkeys preceded the challenge study and revealed the optimal time of tissue distribution for maximal effect. Thereafter, CP was administered prophylactically three days prior to mucosal SARS-CoV-2 viral challenge., Results: Results show similar viral kinetics in mucosal sites over the course of infection independent of administration of CP or normal plasma, or historic controls with no plasma. No changes were noted upon necropsy via histopathology, although there were differences in levels of vRNA in tissues, with both normal and CP seemingly blunting viral loads., Discussion: Results indicate that prophylactic administration with mid-titer CP is not effective in reducing disease severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the rhesus COVID-19 disease model., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Beddingfield, Maness, Spencer, Rappaport, Aye, Russell-Lodrigue, Doyle-Meyers, Blair, Gao, Montefiori and Roy.)

Although most SARS-CoV-2 infections are mild, some patients develop systemic inflammation and progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, the cellular mechanisms underlying this spectrum of disease remain unclear. γδT cells are T lymphocyte subsets that have key roles in systemic and mucosal immune responses during infection and inflammation. Here we show that peripheral γδT cells are rapidly activated following aerosol or intra-tracheal/intra-nasal (IT/IN) SARS-CoV-2 infection in nonhuman primates. Our results demonstrate a rapid expansion of Vδ1 γδT cells at day1 that correlate significantly with lung viral loads during the first week of infection. Furthermore, increase in levels of CCR6 and Granzyme B expression in Vδ1 T cells during viral clearance imply a role in innate-like epithelial barrier-protective and cytotoxic functions. Importantly, the early activation and mobilization of circulating HLA-DR + CXCR3 + γδT cells along with significant correlations of Vδ1 T cells with IL-1Ra and SCF levels in bronchoalveolar lavage suggest a novel role for Vδ1 T cells in regulating lung inflammation during aerosol SARS-CoV-2 infection. A deeper understanding of the immunoregulatory functions of MHC-unrestricted Vδ1 T cells in lungs during early SARS-CoV-2 infection is particularly important in the wake of emerging new variants with increased transmissibility and immune evasion potential., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb each of the four COVID-19 epidemic waves since January 2020. The third wave between July and September 2020 was brought under control within 2 m, while the fourth wave starting from the end of October 2020 has taken longer to bring under control and lasted at least 5 mo. Here, we report the pandemic fatigue as one of the potential reasons for the reduced impact of PHSMs on transmission in the fourth wave. We contacted either 500 or 1,000 local residents through weekly random-digit dialing of landlines and mobile telephones from May 2020 to February 2021. We analyze the epidemiological impact of pandemic fatigue by using the large and detailed cross-sectional telephone surveys to quantify risk perception and self-reported protective behaviors and mathematical models to incorporate population protective behaviors. Our retrospective prediction suggests that an increase of 100 daily new reported cases would lead to 6.60% (95% CI: 4.03, 9.17) more people worrying about being infected, increase 3.77% (95% CI: 2.46, 5.09) more people to avoid social gatherings, and reduce the weekly mean reproduction number by 0.32 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.44). Accordingly, the fourth wave would have been 14% (95% CI%: -53%, 81%) smaller if not for pandemic fatigue. This indicates the important role of mitigating pandemic fatigue in maintaining population protective behaviors for controlling COVID-19.

Breakthrough gastrointestinal COVID-19 was observed after experimental SARS-CoV-2 upper mucosal infection in a rhesus macaque undergoing low-dose monoclonal antibody prophylaxis. High levels of viral RNA were detected in intestinal sites contrasting with minimal viral replication in upper respiratory mucosa. Sequencing of virus recovered from tissue in 3 gastrointestinal sites and rectal swab revealed loss of furin cleavage site deletions present in the inoculating virus stock and 2 amino acid changes in spike that were detected in 2 colon sites but not elsewhere, suggesting compartmentalized replication and intestinal viral evolution. This suggests suboptimal antiviral therapies promote viral sequestration in these anatomies., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Although testing, contact tracing, and case isolation programs can mitigate COVID-19 transmission and allow the relaxation of social distancing measures, few countries worldwide have succeeded in scaling such efforts to levels that suppress spread. The efficacy of test-trace-isolate likely depends on the speed and extent of follow-up and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Here, we use a granular model of COVID-19 transmission to estimate the public health impacts of test-trace-isolate programs across a range of programmatic and epidemiological scenarios, based on testing and contact tracing data collected on a university campus and surrounding community in Austin, TX, between October 1, 2020, and January 1, 2021. The median time between specimen collection from a symptomatic case and quarantine of a traced contact was 2 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 2 to 3) on campus and 5 days (IQR: 3 to 8) in the community. Assuming a reproduction number of 1.2, we found that detection of 40% of all symptomatic cases followed by isolation is expected to avert 39% (IQR: 30% to 45%) of COVID-19 cases. Contact tracing is expected to increase the cases averted to 53% (IQR: 42% to 58%) or 40% (32% to 47%), assuming the 2- and 5-day delays estimated on campus and in the community, respectively. In a tracing-accelerated scenario, in which 75% of contacts are notified the day after specimen collection, cases averted increase to 68% (IQR: 55% to 72%). An accelerated contact tracing program leveraging rapid testing and electronic reporting of test results can significantly curtail local COVID-19 transmission.

Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected infants generally fails to achieve a sustained state of ART-free virologic remission, even after years of treatment. Our studies show that viral reservoir seeding is different in neonatal macaques intravenously exposed to SIV at birth, in contrast to adults. Furthermore, one month of ART including an integrase inhibitor, initiated at day 3, but not day 4 or 5 post infection, efficiently and rapidly suppresses viremia to undetectable levels. Intervention initiated at day 3 post infection and continued for 9 months achieves a sustained virologic remission in 4 of 5 infants. Collectively, an early intervention strategy within a key timeframe and regimen may result in viral remission or successful post-exposure prophylaxis for neonatal SIV infection, which may be clinically relevant for optimizing treatment strategies for HIV-infected or exposed infants., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, rapidly reached pandemic status, and has maintained global ubiquity through the emergence of variants of concern. Efforts to develop animal models have mostly fallen short of recapitulating severe disease, diminishing their utility for research focusing on severe disease pathogenesis and life-saving medical countermeasures. We tested whether route of experimental infection substantially changes COVID-19 disease characteristics in two species of nonhuman primates (Macaca mulatta; rhesus macaques; RM, Chlorocebus atheiops; African green monkeys; AGM). Species-specific cohorts were experimentally infected with SARS-CoV-2 by either direct mucosal (intratracheal + intranasal) instillation or small particle aerosol in route-discrete subcohorts. Both species demonstrated analogous viral loads in all compartments by either exposure route although the magnitude and duration of viral loading was marginally greater in AGMs than RMs. Clinical onset was nearly immediate (+1dpi) in the mucosal exposure cohort whereas clinical signs and cytokine responses in aerosol exposure animals began +7dpi. Pathologies conserved in both species and both exposure modalities include pulmonary myeloid cell influx, development of pleuritis, and extended lack of regenerative capacity in the pulmonary compartment. Demonstration of conserved pulmonary pathology regardless of species and exposure route expands our understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 infection may lead to ARDS and/or functional lung damage and demonstrates the near clinical response of the nonhuman primate model for anti-fibrotic therapeutic evaluation studies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The HIV/SIV envelope glycoprotein (Env) cytoplasmic domain contains a highly conserved Tyr-based trafficking signal that mediates both clathrin-dependent endocytosis and polarized sorting. Despite extensive analysis, the role of these functions in viral infection and pathogenesis is unclear. An SIV molecular clone (SIVmac239) in which this signal is inactivated by deletion of Gly-720 and Tyr-721 (SIVmac239ΔGY), replicates acutely to high levels in pigtail macaques (PTM) but is rapidly controlled. However, we previously reported that rhesus macaques and PTM can progress to AIDS following SIVmac239ΔGY infection in association with novel amino acid changes in the Env cytoplasmic domain. These included an R722G flanking the ΔGY deletion and a nine nucleotide deletion encoding amino acids 734-736 (ΔQTH) that overlaps the rev and tat open reading frames. We show that molecular clones containing these mutations reconstitute signals for both endocytosis and polarized sorting. In one PTM, a novel genotype was selected that generated a new signal for polarized sorting but not endocytosis. This genotype, together with the ΔGY mutation, was conserved in association with high viral loads for several months when introduced into naïve PTMs. For the first time, our findings reveal strong selection pressure for Env endocytosis and particularly for polarized sorting during pathogenic SIV infection in vivo., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Authors Michael Piatak Jr. and Andrew A Lackner are deceased. On their behalf, the corresponding authors have reported their contributions to the best of their knowledge.

Uptake of the Lyme disease spirochete by its tick vector requires not only chemical signals present in the tick's saliva but a responsive phenotype by the Borrelia burgdorferi living in the mammalian host. This is the principle behind xenodiagnosis, wherein pathogen is detected by vector acquisition. To study migration of B. burgdorferi toward Ixodes scapularis tick saliva, with the goal of identifying chemoattractant molecules, we tested multiple assays and compared migration of host-adapted spirochetes to those cultured in vitro. We tested mammalian host-adapted spirochetes, along with those grown in culture at 34 °C, for their relative attraction to tick saliva or the nutrient N-acetyl-D-glucosamine (D-GlcNAc) and its dimer chitobiose using two different experimental designs. The host-adapted B. burgdorferi showed greater preference for tick saliva over the nutrients, whereas the cultured incubator-grown B. burgdorferi displayed no significant attraction to saliva versus a significant response to the nutrients. Our results not only describe a validated migration assay for studies of the Lyme disease agent, but provide a further understanding of how growth conditions and phenotype of B. burgdorferi are related to vector acquisition.

Targeting surveillance resources toward individuals at high risk of early infection can accelerate the detection of emerging outbreaks. However, it is unclear which individuals are at high risk without detailed data on interpersonal and physical contacts. We propose a data-driven COVID-19 surveillance strategy using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that identifies the most vulnerable individuals who acquired the earliest infections during historical influenza seasons. Our simulations for all three networks demonstrate that the EHR-based strategy performs as well as the most-connected strategy. Compared to the random acquaintance surveillance, our EHR-based strategy detects the early warning signal and peak timing much earlier. On average, the EHR-based strategy has 9.8 days of early warning and 13.5 days of peak timings, respectively, before the whole population. For the urban network, the expected values of our method are better than the random acquaintance strategy (24% for early warning and 14% in-advance for peak time). For a scale-free network, the average performance of the EHR-based method is 75% of the early warning and 109% in-advance when compared with the random acquaintance strategy. If the contact structure is persistent enough, it will be reflected by their history of infection. Our proposed approach suggests that seasonal influenza infection records could be used to monitor new outbreaks of emerging epidemics, including COVID-19. This is a method that exploits the effect of contact structure without considering it explicitly., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the National Academy of Sciences.)

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Neurological manifestations are a significant complication of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but underlying mechanisms aren't well understood. The development of animal models that recapitulate the neuropathological findings of autopsied brain tissue from patients who died from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are critical for elucidating the neuropathogenesis of infection and disease. Here, we show neuroinflammation, microhemorrhages, brain hypoxia, and neuropathology that is consistent with hypoxic-ischemic injury in SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates (NHPs), including evidence of neuron degeneration and apoptosis. Importantly, this is seen among infected animals that do not develop severe respiratory disease, which may provide insight into neurological symptoms associated with "long COVID". Sparse virus is detected in brain endothelial cells but does not associate with the severity of central nervous system (CNS) injury. We anticipate our findings will advance our current understanding of the neuropathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and demonstrate SARS-CoV-2 infected NHPs are a highly relevant animal model for investigating COVID-19 neuropathogenesis among human subjects., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: As SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are administered worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to exact significant human and economic costs. Mass testing of unvaccinated individuals followed by isolation of positive cases can substantially mitigate risks and be tailored to local epidemiological conditions to ensure cost effectiveness., Methods: Using a multi-scale model that incorporates population-level SARS-CoV-2 transmission and individual-level viral load kinetics, we identify the optimal frequency of proactive SARS-CoV-2 testing, depending on the local transmission rate and proportion immunized., Findings: Assuming a willingness-to-pay of US$100,000 per averted year of life lost (YLL) and a price of $10 per test, the optimal strategy under a rapid transmission scenario ( R e ∼ 2.5) is daily testing until one third of the population is immunized and then weekly testing until half the population is immunized, combined with a 10-day isolation period of positive cases and their households. Under a low transmission scenario ( R e ∼ 1.2), the optimal sequence is weekly testing until the population reaches 10% partial immunity, followed by monthly testing until 20% partial immunity, and no testing thereafter., Interpretation: Mass proactive testing and case isolation is a cost effective strategy for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in the initial stages of the global SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign and in response to resurgences of vaccine-evasive variants., Funding: US National Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HK Innovation and Technology Commission, China National Natural Science Foundation, European Research Council, and EPSRC Impact Acceleration Grant., Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests. Dr Chinazzi, Dr Pastore y Piontti and Prof. Alessandro Vespignani report grants from Metabiota Inc, outside the submitted work. Prof. Benjamin J. Cowling reports honoraria from AstraZeneca, GSK, Moderna, Pfizer, Roche and Sanofi Pasteur. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest., (© 2022 The Author(s).)