1. 基于多要素的短临降水预报及可解释性分析.
- Author
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陈龙, 彭静, 胡雪飞, 黄占鳌, and 李孝杰
- Subjects
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PRECIPITATION forecasting , *FALSE alarms , *METEOROLOGICAL satellites , *MULTISENSOR data fusion , *EXTRAPOLATION - Abstract
The current methods for short-time precipitation nowcasting are based on radar echo extrapolation model, without fully considering the close influence of other meteorological factors on the evolution of precipitation generation and cancellation, thus limiting the accuracy of the forecasts. To address the above issues, this paper produced a short-time precipitation nowcasting dataset, and proposed the MFPNM(multiple factors precipitation nowcasting model). Based on data from the Fengyun4B satellite, the dataset toke quantitative precipitation estimation as the forecast object and contained four background meteorological factors. Taking the TransUNet as the backbone of the model, this model proposed the parallel dual encoder to extract the high-dimensional spatio-temporal features of the forecast object and the background meteorological data, respectively. Besides, it constructed the content coding module to encode the spatial features of the background data as the learnable positional embedding of the high-dimensional feature vectors of the forecast object. It used a Transformer module to construct the global relationship between the high-dimensional features of the sequence data for better sequence prediction. The metrics used in this paper included critical success index, false alarm rate, root-mean-square error, and structural similarity, etc. The MPFNM was evaluated on two datasets (the proposed dataset and an open-source dataset) and outperformed the baseline models, and it was analyzed for explainability through the SHAP technique. The experimental results and explainability analysis show that the model has better forecasting accuracy and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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